Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Atlantic Lithium has more results from drilling at Ewoyaa, part of the 2023 drilling program. High-grade intervals have been intercepted with step-out drilling confirming mineralisation extends at the North-East deposit, outside the current resource base.

Macquarie assesses there is upside to mine life and the resource base through exploration while accelerated DMS sales and by-product credits present further potential.

Outperform retained along with a $0.70 target.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.29
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes exports from Australia and New Zealand to China and Hong Kong continue to remain subdued, with no sign yet of recovery. Chinese imports are also down on accumulation of inventory ahead of new Chinese safety standards.

Bell Potter has updated a2 Milk Co forecasts to reflect movements in FX, interest rates and export pricing outcomes. The net effect is upgrades to profit expectations, the majority being higher interest income.

Target price falls to $5.70 from $5.95 on a higher capital costs. Hold retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.54
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley would rather stay on the sidelines with an Equal-weight rating for Ansell prior to FY23 results due on August 14.

The broker awaits more details around the destocking issue across Healthcare, signs of margin improvement from the restructure, and an update on the anticipated earnings benefit from IT system improvements.

The $23.28 target is maintained. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $23.28 Current Price is $24.16 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.22, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Following a pre-announcement of top-line results and the initiation of a major productivity initiative, UBS updates forecasts and revisits the investment case for Ansell.

The broker reduces FY24 growth estimates to 2.5% to account for a continued deterioration in the outlook for surgical and life sciences segments. This is offset by some stability in examination/single-use demand.

The broker also observes the intention to spend -US$40-50m on restructuring will hurt near-term adjusted EBIT margins. As a result FY24 EPS estimates fall -20%, creating a new trough. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $26 from $30.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.16 Difference: $1.84
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.22, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is scheduled to report its full-year FY23 result on Monday 14 August.

UBS anticipates a record FY result with cash earnings reaching $627m. UBS is roughly 5% ahead of consensus, predominantly because of a more positive Net Interest Margin (NIM) view, the analysts explain.

The second half of FY23 is seen as the peak for the regional lender; "as good as it gets".

Sell. Target $7. It appears the broker has slightly pared back its estimates for FY24, including for the FY24 dividend, now estimated at 59c.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS has made a site visit to the Bellevue Gold project, noting the underground continues to ramp up while the processing plant and surface infrastructure are on track for commissioning in the December quarter.

The broker assesses the business is well resourced and fully funded and continues to "like" the stock for 2024 and beyond, particularly relative to a sector where free cash flow has become harder to obtain. Neutral rating and $1.40 target maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects the headline financial numbers for FY23 will be softer, reflecting weaker commodity prices for iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal. The broker expects a final dividend of US$0.93 which implies a payout ratio of 65%.

BHP Group is trading on free cash flow yields of 7-8% for FY24-25, which the broker assesses increase to 8-10% in a spot price scenario. Outperform rating and $47 target maintained.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $45.32 Difference: $1.68
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.13, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank has reported FY23 financials and Citi analysts, upon initial assessment, believe the cash earnings were slightly better than the consensus forecast.

Compositionally, the analysts highlight, the 'beat' was driven by better revenue growth, offsetting slightly higher bad and doubtful debts, with a provision top up.

All in all, conclude the analysts, FY23 plus management commentary deliver a message of strength and stability, but where's the outlook?

The analysts suggest the upcoming conference call will be more critical than usual in shaping market expectations on the outlook for Australia's number one bank. A share buyback of $1bn has been announced.

Sell. Target $82.50.

Target price is $82.50 Current Price is $102.21 Difference: minus $19.71 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.30, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, UBS labels CommBank's FY23 result as "clean", accompanied by a better-than-expected dividend and a $1bn share buyback.

Net interest margin (NIM) is in line with forecasts and, equally important, credit trends and asset quality across the bank and its divisions still look healthy, comment the analysts.

Neutral. Target $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $102.21 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.30, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Neutral (3) -

Reading through the performance of US competitors, Macquarie concludes the PDL and consumer lending segments will drive FY24 growth. Purchase volumes increased materially for both companies, PRA and Encore.

Yet Credit Corp's Australasian PDL segment is expected to be a drag on the whole until supply of PDL books improves. The broker retains a Neutral rating and $19.30 target.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $19.99 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

While the FY23 result for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT was only a small miss versus Citi's forecasts, Citi suggests a negative share price reaction was largely driven by the -8% miss versus consensus for FY24 EPS guidance of 26cpu.

In the broker's view, investors have a right to be concerned about gearing levels versus covenants as asset values are falling. It's thought a -15% decline in asset values will result in a breach of covenants. 

Management has flagged asset sales will be required, and, conservatively, current guidance doesn't incorporate this outcome, points out the analyst.

The target falls to $4.00 from $4.40. Neutral.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.2
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY23 results were in line with guidance and expectations. FY24 guidance of $0.26 per security is below Macquarie's expectations and appears to be driven by higher-than-expected interest expense.

The company reported strong rental growth of 4.4% in FY23 and with 51% of the portfolio linked to CPI and the remainder to fixed increases, the broker expects rental growth will remain elevated.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform on valuation, yet the broker remains cautious regarding the balance sheet amid headwinds from higher debt costs.. Target is reduced to $3.56 from $3.77.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CLW as Equal-weight (3) -

FY23 funds from operations (FFO) of 28cpu for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT was in line with guidance and close to Morgan Stanley's 28.1cpu estimate.

FY24 guidance for 26cpu, however, was a miss against forecasts by the broker and consensus of 28.2cpu and 28.3cpu, respectively. It's thought the miss derives largely from higher-than-expected cost of debt as a result of restructuring the hedge book.

Debt hedging now sits at 80% for FY24, and 64% for FY25, up from 70% and 49%, respectively. Management is comfortable with its 42% look-through gearing (despite a covenant at 50%) as it is considering asset sales to help de-leverage, observes the broker.

The Equal-weight rating and $4.85 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $1.05
If CLW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

FY23 results were in line with expectations while guidance for FY24 missed Ord Minnett's estimates. In addition, the broker believes there is downside risk to FY24 operating earnings given Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has signalled potential asset sales.

Gearing has increased to an all-time high of 40.1% and the broker concludes gearing can stay below debt covenants if the company successfully divests assets.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating, but points out there will be volatility in the stock if gearing remains elevated. Target is reduced to $4.16 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.36
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

FY23 results were in line with UBS estimates. While Charter Hall Long WALE REIT offers inflation protection at both the property income and property expenses level, the broker assesses the benefit is eroded by debt costs and elevated gearing.

Estimates for FY24 and FY25 are revised down -6% and up 5%, respectively, reflecting revised hedging/debt cost profile and the new disclosure.

The broker believes the stock is increasingly pricing in dilution from various deleveraging scenarios and, as a result, retains a Neutral rating, reducing the target to $4.10 from $4.27.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.3
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the FY23 result, UBS revises estimates for EPS down by -3% for FY23 and up by 5% for FY24.

This stems from the additional -$25m provision for the shortfall in salaried manager remuneration, completion of the Express sale and a modest boost to EBIT from ongoing wholesaling to former Express sites.

The broker forecasts FY23 net profit of $1.1bn and EBIT of $1.96bn. Neutral rating and $18.50 target maintained.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.04 Difference: $0.46
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources posted a first half profit in excess of Bell Potter's forecast but announced a mere US0.5c dividend when US10c was expected, to provide balance sheet flexibility for inorganic growth opportunities.

The company maintained 2023 production, cost and capex guidance, implying a lift in production and a significant reduction in costs, the broker notes. Seems ambitious, but management points to a second half production skew at Curragh and lower costs through inventory unwind.

Bell Potter's unchanged Buy recommendation reflects a supportive met coal price outlook, Coronado’s near-term production growth and strong free cash flow yield. Target maintained at $2.00.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.545
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Coronado Global Resources were stronger than Macquarie expected albeit weaker year-on-year because of lower realised metallurgical coal pricing. 2023 guidance for saleable coal production has been maintained.

The minimum interim dividend was declared and a risk to the final dividend has been flagged (being subject to M&A). The company has approved the Curragh underground expansion while the broker notes the near-term catalyst is the update on potential M&A.

Outperform rating and $2.30 target unchanged.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.845
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Recent research from Morgans suggested several ASX-listed coal companies, including Coronado Global Resources were trading at a valuation discount due to involvement in the auction for some BHP Group ((BHP)) coal assets.

Now, the first half dividend for Coronado Global Resources has materially disappointed the market, notes the broker, as management is maintaining near 'maximum flexibility... to pursue organic and inorganic growth opportunities".

The analyst highlights operating cash flow also disappointed due to a -$74m payment for 2022 tax paid. Management maintained FY23 guidance. 

Morgans believes management is unlikely to participate in a winning bid for BHP's Blackwater asset and an exit from the process should support the resumption of dividends and narrow the valuation discount.

The target slips to $2.10 from $2.15. Add.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.645
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources has posted the second highest first half revenue in its history, UBS notes, although the market did not welcome the lower-than-expected dividend.

The broker points out shareholders need to weigh up the preference for returns against the potential opportunities for growth and the company's ability to acquire and operate accretively.

UBS defends management's "disciplined" approach and retains a Buy rating and $1.90 target.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.445
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the FY23 result, UBS revises EPS estimates for Endeavour Group down by -4% and -6% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

This stems from expectations that retail EBIT margins in the second half will be lower than previously anticipated amid lower sales and EBIT margins across hotels, albeit at a lesser pace.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.15 from $6.75.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $0.15
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Add (1) -

FY23 results for Garda Property were in line with management guidance while FY24 DPS guidance was a miss versus Morgans forecast.  The DPS miss was largely due to higher interest costs and a timing mismatch between asset sales and income from active developments.

The re-weighting away from Office continues and two further assets are flagged for sale in FY24 and proceeds will be deployed for future development projects (current developments are fully funded).

The Add rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.73 from $1.81.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.545
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Sell (5) -

UBS revises estimates up by 3% for FY23 in FY24 amid property revaluation increments and a lesser decline in margins in franchising operations.

The broker expects net profit in FY23 for Harvey Norman of $521m and EBITDA of $1.09bn. The key issues for the upcoming results are pre-tax profit margins within franchising operations, the inventory position, and the "feedback" that Harvey Norman has been losing market share to JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)).

Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JAN as Buy (1) -

Janison Education released a solid FY23 result broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations. Revenue and earnings were at the lower end of the guidance range.

Softer revenue was due to slower conversion of clients and weaker margins, the broker notes, impacted by an increase in the proportion of Services revenue as new customers were on-boarded.

The key positive of the result was the company reaching free cash flow breakeven and achieving stronger operating cash flow. Buy and 70c target retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.21
If JAN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates JAN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following pre-announcement of key FY23 metrics for Janison Education, Shaw and Partners notes revenue and operating earnings were toward the low end of the guidance range while gross profit came in slightly below.

The broker highlights the group is now cash positive and AI is providing a medium-term tailwind. 

While the performance of the Solutions business was above the broker's expectation, Assessments was below and gross margins were softer, though the overhead cost performance made up for the slightly lower revenues.

The Buy/High risk rating and 80c target are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.31
If JAN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Following yesterday's 1Q result for James Hardie Industries, Citi raises its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 16-20% across FY24-FY26 and increases its target to $55.10 from $42.50. Buy.

Despite a share price rally of around 14% in reaction to the result, the broker expects outperformance to continue as the company's multiple reverts to historical levels.

The analysts' first take on the result yesterday was as follows:

In a first glance at today's 1Q result for James Hardie Industries, Citi highlights a 16% beat compared to the consensus forecast for profit, driven by a materially improved margin across all segments. A positive share price reaction is expected.

The broker notes declining input costs and lower selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses drove the profit improvement, despite lower volumes.

As the North American margin exceeded 30% on -9% lower volumes and a new housing-dominant lower price/mix, the analyst is optimistic for when capacity returns.

There is a note of near-term caution, as the company reduced the time period for guidance and modestly downgraded R&R expectations, though management has improving expectations for new housing, explains the broker.

Target price is $55.10 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: $8.48
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

James Hardie Industries posted a first quarter result that significantly beat Macquarie's expectations. The company has made headway in the US new construction market while price realisation in the Asia-Pacific also beat forecasts.

The broker believes the business is "well-positioned" for a cyclical recovery in renovations.

Meanwhile, the valuation is attractive and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. James Hardie has guided to second quarter adjusted net profit of US$170-190m, driven by North American operating metrics. Target is raised to $52.20 from $48.00.

Target price is $52.20 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: $5.58
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Following 1Q results well above consensus forecasts, Morgan Stanley suggests investors in James Hardie Industries can focus on considerable upside potential once the cycle turns.

Revenue was a 4% beat against forecasts by the analyst and consensus due to growth in average selling price across the three segments, offset by an -11% volume decrease. 

Costs have also moderated in a slowing macro environment, explains Morgan Stanley, resulting in record margins for North America Fibre Cement (NAFC) and the APAC region Fibre Cement businesses.

Furthermore, management has increased 2Q guidance with margin improvement expected across all three business segments. The broker raises its target to $54 from $44 and maintains its Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: $7.38
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

In the wake of the first quarter result, Ord Minnett lifts its FY24 EBIT margin forecasts for James Hardie Industries to 29% for North America.

Given heightened uncertainty regarding the outlook, management has only provided margin guidance for the second quarter, and only for the North American segment, albeit this accounts for more than 80% of earnings.

The shares are up nearly 15% on the first quarter result and Ord Minnett believes they are modestly overvalued. The broker is a little surprised the market remains so bullish, given some of the risks around demand, inflation and interest rates. Hold rating. Target is $43.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: minus $3.62 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $51.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

On further analysis, UBS notes the resilience of margins in the first quarter for James Hardie Industries as input tailwinds mean 30% US EBIT margins throughout FY24 and into FY25 are likely.

While renovation activity remains soft, the market is rapidly improving. Given the better volume outlook and potential for substantially improved margins, the broker upgrades FY24 estimates for EPS by 12% and raises the target to $54.00 from $49.50. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: $7.38
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.66, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie assesses a tough macro outlook will drive margin pressure for Lovisa Holdings, noting Australasian consumers have come under pressure over the June quarter and this has persisted into the early part of the first half of FY24.

Offshore markets, meanwhile, have been vulnerable for longer. While explicitly accounting for this in sales forecasts, Macquarie remains cautious about the short-term and notes scope for weak outlook commentary at the upcoming results.

Industry feedback suggests elevated promotional activity in recent months. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $22.00 from $35.70.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.18 Difference: $0.82
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.89, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Liontown Resources has reiterated its schedule for the Kathleen Valley development and first SC6 spodumene production is targeted for mid 2024. Macquarie notes the majority of the uncommitted capital is for labour and contractor services.

While cost inflation continues to affect the Western Australian mining sector, the broker asserts the "simple nature" of uncommitted expenditure reduces uncertainties. Outperform rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.36
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

UBS has visited the Kathleen Valley project and is impressed with the progress being made by Liontown Resources. The broker acknowledges its capital expenditure estimate of -$930m could increase, as the company is intent on delivering to specification and on time for its tier-1 customers.

UBS considers this strategic focus a smart move, given the quality of the ore and the potential of the project. The underground mining contract will be announced by the end of the September quarter. Neutral rating and $2.80 target maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.06
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades earnings estimates for the short term, assessing the performance of the department store is deteriorating earlier than expected. The midpoint of FY23 profit guidance of $69-73m is -23% below the broker's prior estimate.

Although the timing of the "margin crunch" has come sooner than expected, Ord Minnett emphasises a downturn was expected and the outlook for FY24 is largely unchanged. Hold rating and $0.75 target maintained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.14
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Sell (5) -

After visiting the site, UBS assesses Northern Star Resources is on track to deliver 650,000ozpa by FY26 from the KCGM operations as the focus remains on maintaining production rates during construction and ramping up by accessing the higher grade at Golden Pike.

The company also expects to process more higher grades from the open pit, increasingly moving to the underground. The broker retains a Sell rating and $11.70 target.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: $0.82
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following a 36% increase in the mineral resource estimate (MRE) at Pilgangoora, Morgans believes the valuation for Pilbara Minerals looks attractive compared to other hard rock pure plays. The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.

More significantly, according to the analyst, the biggest increase at Pilgangoora was in the measured and indicated resource (more certain than inferred) which increased by 64%.

Further brownfields expansion beyond the currently planned capacity increase to 1Mtpa may result, suggests Morgans. The target rises to $5.90 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.58
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Following a good old fashioned profit warning released by Myer ((MYR)) yesterday, Citi analysts comment much of the negatives weighing down Myer's performance is already incorporated in their forecasts for Premier Investments.

The analysts explain they have factored in mid-single digit cost growth in 2H23 and FY24 despite flat to declining sales over the same period.

All in all, Citi  suggests earnings expectations for Premier Investments are already reasonably "grounded", hence no change to the Neutral rating. Target price $22.40.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $21.44 Difference: $0.96
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PSI as Buy (1) -

PSC Insurance has entered into an agreement to acquire Ensurance ((ENA)). The Ensurance board has unanimously declared the deal to be in the best interests of its shareholders. The price will be the greater of cash or scrip value dependent on PSC's share price at the time.

This looks to be a sensible move for PSC, Bell Potter suggests, acquiring a mid-sized Australian based underwriting agency. The price appears rich until one adjusts for the level of cash on Ensurance' balance sheet.

The deal will continue PSC’s record of organic and inorganic growth, which saw earnings grow by 24.8% compound annual over the five years to FY22, the broker notes. No changes made as yet, Buy and $6.41 target retained.

Target price is $6.41 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $1.61
If PSI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSI as Overweight (1) -

The opportunity for PSC Insurance to drive growth by acquisition has been confirmed, notes Morgan Stanley, following the outlay of at least -$25.2m to acquire the Australian-based Ensurance ((ENA)), an underwriting agency in professional and financials lines.

While the deal will be EPS neutral to very low single digit accretive, the analyst sees strategic merit in deepening the group's agency capabilities.

Overweight maintained. Target is $5.70. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.9
If PSI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews offshore results, reading through for QBE Insurance. Premium rate momentum is strong at around 7% for the company's book mix as North American pricing accelerates and Australia remains at all-time highs.

The broker believes, as the company's underperforming portfolios are being fixed, the long-term multiple should continue to improve.

Outperform maintained. Target is $16.90.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $15.88 Difference: $1.02
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.67, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

In advance of 1H results for Scentre Group, Citi lowers its target to $3.00 from $3.10 after raising forecast interest costs. Compared to peers the REIT is faced with headwinds via higher see-through gearing and a larger discretionary retail focus.

The Neutral rating is retained.

The broker suggests the current -25% valuation discount for Scentre Group will widen following upcoming cap rate adjustments.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.26
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Sell (5) -

For results due on August 15, Citi forecasts FY23 profit of $175m for Sims and a 34cps dividend (unchanged), compared to the consensus estimate of 35cps.

The broker raises its target to $14.50 from $14.30 and maintains its Sell rating. It's felt a further retreat in iron ore prices will place the ferrous scrap price at risk.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.81, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has drawn upon the earnings result from Block ((SQ2)) to make changes to forecasts for local competitor SmartPay.

These include material reductions to the company’s Australian Transaction segment revenues on the assumption of slowing average revenue per unit, which reflects an overall slowdown in consumer spending and lower inflation.

This offset by margin expansion thanks to industry regulation, but softer earnings in FY24 before said expansion kicks in. The net result is a downgrade to forecast FY24 earnings but increases for FY25-26.

Target falls to $1.97 from $2.11, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.97 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.445
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades its rating for Santos to Hold from Add on recent share price strength and reduces its target to $8.30 from $8.45.

For upcoming 1H results, the broker expects the company to maintain a solid group margin and a healthy interim dividend.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $0.44
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.40, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp Group has released FY23 financials and Citi analysts, upon initial glance, conclude cash earnings slightly surprised but the dividend is below expectations and margin guidance for H1 FY24 looks "soft".

The group result is impacted by slightly higher-than-forecast one-offs. All in all, the analysts retain a positive view, labeling today's release as largely in line, but the dividend and outlook guidance -indicating tough times ahead- might disappoint some investors.

$14.90 target with a Buy rating.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.15
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.92, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Judging from UBS's initial response, Suncorp Group's FY23 release comes with a number of negative surprises, including management's guidance and the dividend declared.

Both the general insurance division and the bank business failed to meet UBS's expectations. Another disappointment were projected bank separation costs, now estimated at -$575-600m versus -$500m previously.

Buy. Target $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.25
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.92, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

From its data, UBS observes Tabcorp Holdings' digital market share among Queensland respondents has declined over the past year.

Queensland has made structural changes to a "level playing field" during the past year, which the company had estimated would improve EBITDA by around $30m per annum.

While still early days, UBS assesses the company's pursuit of greater share in Queensland and elsewhere is not yet supported by planned digital capabilities, so the extent of reinvestment in Queensland remains unclear.

UBS considers Queensland serves as a test case ahead of similar changes that are planned in Victoria and possibly New South Wales.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and $1.09 target.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.015
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi leaves its Neutral rating and $33 target for Woodside Energy unchanged after the sale of a -10% interest in Scarborough to LNG Japan for US$880m.

As Australian LNG projects invariably cost more and start up later than the final investment decision (FID) indicates, the broker feels the sell down is positive for Woodside Energy.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $38.40 Difference: minus $5.4 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.58, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Hold (3) -

Management predicts Woodside Energy will ultimately receive US$880m on deal completion after announcing the sell-down of a -10% non-operating stake in the Scarborough operations.

Morgans is disappointed more than 10% wasn't sold as the transaction should only marginally improve upstream risk exposure in the project. More positively, the odds of maintaining dividends above the dividend policy for longer have increased.

For upcoming 1H results, the broker expects the company to maintain a solid group margin and a healthy interim dividend.

The Hold rating and $33.60 target are unchanged 

Target price is $33.60 Current Price is $38.40 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.58, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the -10% sell down of equity in Scarborough to LNG Japan is incrementally positive.

The transaction implies a valuation for Scarborough that is -8% below UBS estimates but this partly mitigates the commercial risk associated with Woodside Energy holding an "uncomfortably high equity position".

The broker wishes for the company to sell further equity to better reflect a more comfortable risk exposure to such a significant upstream investment. The company has also signed non-binding agreement for 0.9mtpa of LNG for 10 years with LNG Japan, from 2026.

Neutral retained. Target is $34.90.

Target price is $34.90 Current Price is $38.40 Difference: minus $3.5 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.58, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources