Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

While 4Q operational results for AIC Mines were broadly neutral, suggests Ord Minnett, FY25 production guidance was a -6% miss,
with resulting higher costs (AISC) and growth capex.

The analysts attribute cost inflation and some minor productivity related issues (i.e. throughput) for the miss, with the operation remaining mining constrained.

The analysts anticipate some relative share price underperformance in the near-term as the market digests this result, but this weakness may ultimately present a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained while the target falls to 60c from 70c on a slightly softer outlook, explains the broker.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.145
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Fourth quarter Eloise copper mine production exceeded forecasts by Shaw and Partners and consensus. Net mine cash flow of $9.5m was also considered "outstanding" by the analysts.

Thanks to the highest annual production since 2017 at Eloise, management expects 12.5kt of copper production in FY24.

Unchanged Buy, High Risk rating. The target drops to $1.10 from $1.20 on the broker's higher FY25 depreciation forecast, in line with guidance, and after allowing for additional capex at the Jericho development project.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.645
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its Brent crude oil price forecasts, raises estimates for JKM LNG and adjusts Henry Hub price forecasts.

At upcoming quarterly results for Ampol, the broker forecasts a 1H Lytton Refining Margin of circa US$11.80/bbl, (consensus US$11.50/bb).

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target falls to $36 from $37. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.99 Difference: $2.01
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.94, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers EPS forecasts for Ampol, by -6.6% and -13.3% for FY24/FY25, respectively, because of lower-than-expected refining margins which is partly offset by the mark-to-market of retail fuel margins for the June quarter.

The analyst highlights its refining forecasts are below consensus and points to macro headwinds leaning in retail fuel volumes.

UBS prefers Viva Energy Group ((VEA)) due to the clarity of the convenience strategy, over Ampol.

The stock is Neutral rated with the target price moved to $34.25 from $34.40.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $33.99 Difference: $0.26
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.94, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

In an early response to BHP Group's quarterly production update released earlier this morning, Citi analysts conclude FY24 has finished with a strong performance for the Big Australian.

Citi's quarterly forecasts have been beaten across all key divisions. Management has guided towards the upper half of cost ranges for Spence and WAIO.

FY25 production outlook remains relatively flat. The Nickel West EBITDA loss will be circa -$300m in FY24. The broker highlights exceptional items will also include a gain on coal sale of US$650-$750m plus -US$300m impairment at Nickel West.

Buy rating and $48.50 target.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $43.08 Difference: $5.42
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.91, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the most likely scenario for BHP Group and Nickel West post the not unsurprising decision to suspend temporarily the operations by December, and thereby booking a -US$300m loss for the nickel operation in FY24.

The analyst suggests the nickel market moves to deficit by the end of the decade; this will provide an opportunity for the restart of Nickel West in FY29. Lower costs and capex will be necessary, UBS states.

Along the way there are multiple risks, and it is but a small asset for the group. Management will require a "high conviction" to go ahead again. UBS notes a possible divestment or permanent closure could trigger a -US$900m rehabilitation provision.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by 2.1% for FY24 and 0.8% for FY25. Neutral rating and $44 target unchanged.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $43.08 Difference: $0.92
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.91, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its Brent crude oil price forecasts, raises estimates for JKM LNG and adjusts Henry Hub price forecasts.

At upcoming quarterly results for Beach Energy, the broker will be focusing on Waitsia stage 2 progress after recent delays and project cost increases.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.45 from $1.49. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi revises the outlook for BlueScope Steel on the back of anticipation of bottoming of US steel prices as an "uptick" is expected as the Fed eases monetary conditions.

Domestically, the risk of another RBA rate hike could impact on volumes.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts to the lower end of 2H24 guidance at $620m, but is more upbeat on improved Asia export spreads and volumes for North Star in FY26.

The target price decreases to $23.70 from $24 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with the valuation for prospective earnings in FY27 at a low.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $20.86 Difference: $2.84
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.36, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades CAR Group to Buy from Neutral with a target price lift to $39.80 from $34.70.

While acknowledging some forex headwinds and a risk of another rate rise domestically, the broker points to the strength of the company's position and expected robust growth even with macro headwinds.

Overseas, Citi believes falling interest rates will provide tailwinds for Brazil and the US.

Over the medium-term, double-digit earnings growth is forecast by Citi, with the potential for "bolt-on' acquisitions and mergers.

EPS estimates are tweaked by 0.5% in FY24 and -3.9% for FY25.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $35.39 Difference: $4.41
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS previews online classifieds for the 2H24 and believes the sector is well positioned to continue to underwrite growth via yields and price rises.

The broker forecasts CAR Group to generate "good" growth in Dealer and Private into FY25, including private price rises of 6% in July.

In the US market, Citi expects "good growth and strong EBITDA growth" in FY25 with the potential boost from Fed rate cuts and strong growth is also expected from Brazil.

The earnings forecasts are lowered by -3% for FY24/FY25 due to forex impacts.

A Buy rating is retained, and the target price lifted 5% to $40.50.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $35.39 Difference: $5.11
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans adjusts forecasts heading into CommBank's FY24 result in August, estimates for revenue rising 1%; credit impairment charges falling -11% to -15%; and operating exenditure worsening -1%.

The broker upgrades FY25 to FY26 cash earnings 2% to 3% accordingly.

Cash EPS forecasts fall -1% in FY24 and FY25 before rising 9% in FY26.

Reduce rating retained. Target price rises to $96.13 from $92.89.

Target price is $96.13 Current Price is $132.44 Difference: minus $36.31 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.19, suggesting downside of -28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

In the ongoing transition to in-house research from whitelabeling Morningstar research, Ord Minnett sets a $95 target (up from $90) for CommBank with a Sell rating (previously Hold).

Since 2017, the bank's dividend yield has compressed to around 3.4% from circa 6.0%, with no dividend growth forecast by Ord Minnett for 2025 and 2026.

Also, earnings per share have been broadly flat in that period, and the Price/Earnings ratio has expanded to 24.5x from 13.8x, highlights the broker.

The actual trigger for a share price fall is difficult to judge, but it’s likely to be macroeconomic or geopolitical in nature, suggests Ord Minnett.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $132.44 Difference: minus $37.44 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.19, suggesting downside of -28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COE as Hold (3) -

Cooper Energy's June-quarter gas production met guidance but fell short of Bell Potter's estimates.

The broker says BMG decommissioning costs and FY24 capital ependiture are expected to meet guidance.

The company closed the year with net debt of $250m, up from $165m in March, to reflect the decommmisioning (slightly below the broker's forecast).

Overall, the broker considered it to be a marginally stronger result, save for Gippsland Basin production. The FY24 EPS forecast falls.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to 22c from 21c. 

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.005
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Outperform (1) -

Cooper Energy reported 4Q production which met expectations for the Macquarie analyst; sales were 4% above forecasts and gas realisation 15% above estimates,

The broker observes Otway should be self-funding, a better outcome than its previous forecasts and Cooper Energy is preparing for a 3-well program as part of the East Coast Gas Supply Project, with first production in 2028.

Macquarie's EPS forecasts are raised by 75% for FY24 and 52% for FY25, and the target price remains at 30c.

Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.085
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

In a lower interest rate environment, Morgan Stanley still believes Computershare can achieve 9% management EPS (MEPS) growth in FY25, as 2024 should mark the start of M&A recovering from multi-decade lows.

The broker anticipates a meaningful activity pick up for Issuer Services, employee share Plans and the Corporate Trust business (CCT) ex MI. It's also felt proceeds from the sale of US Mortgage Services will be used to reduce debt (and interest payments).

Target $29.40. Overweight. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $26.25 Difference: $3.15
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.87, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

As around 70% of earnings for CSL have been derived from the 1H, risks to earnings from the second-half performance are much reduced when FY24 are released on August 13, notes Ord Minnett.

The broker forecasts net profit of US$3.03bn on a constant currency basis, just above management's guidance of between US$2.90-3.00bn. Medium-term profit drivers remain positive, in the analyst's view, largely due to a rebound in Behring’s gross margins.

The Hold rating and $317.30 target price are maintained. 

Target price is $317.30 Current Price is $307.86 Difference: $9.44
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $322.95, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the consensus earnings forecast for Corporate Travel Management is way too high relative to industry conditions and the company's positioning within that industry.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target is lowered to $13.16 from $14.91 due to lower forecasts for Asia and Europe.

Industry analysis shows the structural decline in volumes for travel management companies compared to pre-covid driven by virtual meetings and sustainability dynamics, notes the broker. 

A recent decline in economic conditions worsens the outlook further, explains the analyst.

Target price is $13.16 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.51, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

UBS previews online classifieds for the 2H24 and believes the sector is well positioned to continue to underwrite growth via yields and price rises.

The broker observes Proptrack data reveal listing volumes have remained stronger than the forecast 17% annual growth as Melbourne and Sydney continue to exceed other cities.

Volume listings growth is raised to 2% from 1% for Domain Holdings Australia. Neutral rating maintained with UBS seeing potential for downside in listings compared to REA Group.

Neutral. The target price is raised to $3.60 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.35
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems' June first-half unaudited results reveal a strong start to the year, advises Bell Potter, revenue of $142m representing 59% of the broker's full-year prediction of $241.1m.

Bell Potter suspects much of the strength reflects an acceleration of revenues rather than new contract awards.

The company closed the half with a weaker than forecast cash balance of $52.2m, due to a -$20.5m debt repayment and rise in its gross contract asset to $89.7m, which weighed on cash flow.

The broker believes the result de-risks its full-year forecast. EPS forecasts are steady.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises 5% to $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.48
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sectore to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

GQG Partners remains the broker's preferred sector pick and the broker upgrades the company's EPS forecasts by more than 10%.

The broker observes FUM rose 3.7% in June, 29% in the June half, and 49.5% in the past year, suggesting strong June-half momentum and a likely reflective jump in performance fees of $40m (0 the previous year).

Add rating retained. Target price rises to $3.15, which compares with $2.45 in February.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.17
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's quarterly update sharply outpaced Bell Potter's forecasts, funds under administration (FUA) rising 30% to $104.7bn, split between Platform funds of $84.4bn and non-custodial funds of $20.3bn.

The broker observes underlying net flows represent a June-quarter record, pointing to asset retention and strong momentum.

Management retains its FY25 FUA target.

The broker observes FUA held as cash eased and expects this should erode average revenue margins.

EPS forecasts fall -1% in FY24; are steady in FY25; and rise 2% in FY26.

Buy rating and $53.20 target price retained.

Target price is $53.20 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: $6.69
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Hub24 reported stronger than expected underlying flows and an improved Equity Trustees transition.

The analyst lifts the FY25 net flow forecast by 11%, on the back of assumed underlying flows of $12.2bn.

EBITDA estimates are also raised by 1% to 2% for greater funds under administration.

The target price is tweaked to $47 from $46.40 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: $0.49
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Hub24's 4Q core inflows of $3.2bn marked a 5% beat against the consensus forecast, observes Morgan Stanley. Further upside is expected for FY25 Platform funds under administration (FUA) guidance of between $92-100bn.

While FUA  for the quarter missed by -1.5% due to negative market movements and lower flows from the Equity Trustees transition, the latter was upsized to $5bn from $4bn, note the analysts.

Overweight rating. Target $44.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sector to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

Hub24 has also published its June-quarter funds under administration (FUA) update, recording a 4.7% jump in FUA; up 30.3% on the previous year.

Management reiterated its FY25 Platform FUA guidance range and the broker observes the company is on track to hit the high end.

Hold rating retained on valuation. Target price is $45.05, which compares with $39.25 in February.

Target price is $45.05 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's 4Q underlying platform net flows of $3.2bn matched Ord Minnett's forecast, and the net flow environment is on the improve, suggests the broker.

Despite some minor 4Q delays, the Equity Trustees (ET) transition has been upsized to $5bn from $4bn, highlights the analyst.

Group platform funds under administration (FUA) of $84.4bn (just below the broker's forecast) at quarter's close was up by 5.9% over the period and by 34.6% over the year.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $50 from $44 after raising underlying EPS estimates by 2-5% over the forecast period and rolling-forward the financial model. Buy.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $46.51 Difference: $3.49
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi adjusts earnings for reforecasts for IGO Ltd ahead of the June quarter update.

EPS estimates decline by -2.5% in FY24 and 32% in FY25 as the broker highlights the inclusion of a 2H24 guided exploration impairment of -$275m-$295m and the removal of train 3 at Kwinana.

The broker also states investors will be focused on FY25 guidance for Greenbushes. The Neutral rating is unchanged, and the target price lowered to $6.80 from $7.60.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: $0.84
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes management is clearing the books on IGO Ltd's current exploration portfolio by recording a non-cash -$275-295m impairment relating to revaluation of the Silver Knight and Mt Goode nickel assets.

The company purchased the Silver Knight project in 2021 for -$45m, while Mt Goode was a deposit at Cosmos, part of the original Western Areas acquisition.

Underweight rating. Target $5.05. (Potentially the broker's valuation for IGO will be negatively impacted by -11% due to the impairment) Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sector to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

Iress has also upgraded FY24 guidance by 4% after bringing forward transformation benefits thanks to strong cost discipline and focus on the core business.

Management is expected to report on the divestment of UK Mortgages soon, says the broker.

Morgans upgrades Iress to Add from Hold to reflect growing confidence in the prospects of a turnaround. Target price edges up to $9.85.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: $0.96
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.15, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IRI as Buy (1) -

Integrated Research has narrowed guidance to the top of the previous range with its FY24 trading update thanks to a 17% jump in revenue which beat Bell Potter's forecast.

Earnings (EBITDA) also proved a sharp beat, as did the cash balance of $31.9m at June 30.

Management guided to a skew in renewals to the second half of FY25 and expects the business will rely more heavily on new business.

CEO John Ruthven announced his resignation. FY24 EPS forecasts rise sharply, FY25 forecasts are steady.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises 11% to $1.05 from 95c.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.15
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Sell (5) -

Citi adjusts the earnings forecasts for Judo Capital to account for -$7m in restructuring and redundancy expenses in 2H24 and a lift in bad and doubtful debts to $40.4m.

Accordingly, the profit before tax estimate is lowered to $102.3m from $110.9m, within the guidance range from management.

The target price is adjusted to reflect changes in the valuation model to $1.26 from $1.04. Sell rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its Brent crude oil price forecasts, raises estimates for JKM LNG and adjusts Henry Hub price forecasts.

At upcoming quarterly results for Karoon Energy, the broker will focus on the new shareholder returns policy, and updates on Bauna's SPS-88 pending approvals.

The Overweight rating and $2.00 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.1
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sector to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

Magellan Financial reported flat FY24 FUM and $0.2bn institutional outflows and -$0.2bn retail outflows, the broker observing a continuing stabilisation of flows, but believes organic FUM growth remains challenged.

The broker strongly upgrades FY24 EPS and DPS forecasts for Magellan Financial to reflect a performance fee that sharply outpaced consensus forecasts ($19m compared with $0.1m in the December half) and unrealised investment gains, but accords only minor upgrades to later years.

Hold rating retained. Target price is $9.99, compared with $9.67 in February.

Target price is $9.99 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $0.5
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the year end to May 24 total IVF cycles have advanced 1.6% on the previous corresponding period, including a 1.3% rise in May from a 4.2% increase in the frozen growth cycle.

The Macquarie EPS forecasts are trimmed by -1.8% and -0.7% for FY24/FY25, respectively, because of small reductions in the IVF market cycles.

Unchanged target price at $1.55 and Outperform rating.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.23
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights a "strong" finish to FY24 by Nanosonics with stronger-than-expected 2H earnings (EBIT) guidance of between $2.0-5.0m. Group revenue of $90.4m for H2 beat the analyst's forecast for $87m.

While installations of the flagship Trophon device were fewer-than-expected by the broker, a wider gross margin and higher
sales of consumables provided a greater offset.

Because the gross margin for FY24 is trending towards the top end of management's prior guidance, the suggestion is 2H earnings will likely beat forecasts by the broker and consensus.

The $3.70 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.48
If NAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its FY25 EPS estimates for Nick Scali by -13% as a tough macroeconomic backdrop for consumers weighs on like-for-like sales growth, while the challenge of rising transport costs narrows earnings margins.

The broker's target falls to $16.00 from $16.50 and the Buy rating is maintained.

The analyst sees a risk of further downgrades to consensus forecasts ahead of FY24 results on August 9.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $2.09
If NCK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.47, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

The June quarter asset under management (AUM) update by Navigator Global Investments came in just below Ord Minnett's expectations.

The AUM metric for NGI Strategic funds fell by around -2%, while Lighthouse Partners experienced a 0.7% lift due to investment performance, explains the broker.

The Buy rating and $2.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.235
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Post the -14% fall in the share price for Nickel Industries over the last 10-weeks, Citi upgrades the company to Buy (High Risk) as the only pure play nickel producer on the market.

The broker considers 1H24 EBITDA earnings as the trough and expects some earnings growth momentum going forward with the probability of consensus earnings improvements.

Nickel Industries' 55% owned nickel leach project should start production in 3Q25. Buy (High risk) rating and $1.10 target price.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.255
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sector to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

Netwealth Group's June-quarter funds under administration (FUA) rose 3.9% to $88bn and net inflows rose 39% to $3.8bn.

Morgans considers the company to be very attractive, appreciating its market position, earnings defensiveness and growth outlook, but is waiting for a more attractive entry point.

Hold rating retained. Target price is set at $20.45, compared with $18.15 in February.

Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $22.53 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.64, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Morgans reviews the financial services sector to reflect broad improvements in equities the June half, as well as fund flows.

The broker has seen no recent updates from Pinnacle Investment Management, but expects a solid performance and fee contribution.

Morgans broadly upgrades FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts to reflect higher performance fee assumptions.

Target price is $16, which compares with $11.40 in February. Add.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.61 Difference: $0.39
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.33, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNV as Add (1) -

Morgans has decided to stay on the front foot ahead of PolyNovo's results and raises its target price to $2.50 from $2.22.

The broker observes the company is set to continue logging solid revenue growth for the next three years.

Add rating retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.13
If PNV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS previews online classifieds for the 2H24 and believes the sector is well positioned to continue to underwrite growth via yields and price rises.

The broker observes Proptrack data reveal listing volumes have remained stronger than the forecast 17% annual growth as Melbourne and Sydney continue to exceed other cities.

Accordingly, volume growth forecasts for REA Group are lifted to 8% from 6.5% and UBS remains positive on FY25 volume growth.

Buy rating retained and the target price raised to $233.60 from $214. 

Target price is $233.60 Current Price is $203.76 Difference: $29.84
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $207.51, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

A rail outage resulted in Rio Tinto's June quarter Pilbara shipments coming in below Citi's expectations, with total production meeting consensus expectations.

Copper guidance was changed to the lower end of the guidance range due to Kennecott mine risk adjustments and Escondida copper output was firmer on higher grades and throughput.

Infrastructure agreements on Simandou are expected this week the broker notes; aluminium production fell -10% on Qld gas supply problems and alumina guidance was lowered.

The FY25 EBITDA forecast is trimmed by -2% and the target price is unchanged at $137. Neutral rating remains.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $116.81 Difference: $20.19
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.75, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto reported 2Q24 results which met expectations for Macquarie, excluding copper which experienced geo-technical problems at Kennecott. Escondida came in higher than forecasts.

De-risking of the Simandou JV is anticipated with regulatory approvals in place and the first ore likely to commence in 2025, the broker notes.

Macquarie was positive on the iron ore guidance, retained at 323mt-338mt including a rail outage and aluminium has stabilised post labour disruptions and other issues.

The analyst's earnings forecasts are tweaked by -1% for FY24 and -2% for FY25.

Target price is changed to $118 from $119 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $116.81 Difference: $1.19
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.75, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto's 2Q operational report revealed better iron ore pricing offset by some production impacts, negatively impacting Morgan Stanley's production forecasts by around -1%.

Around two to three years earlier than the broker conservatively forecasts, management reiterated a full ramp-up of Simandou will occur by 2027/28. 

In general, projects are progressing to plan, with minimal changes to guidance and no change to cost guidance, note the analysts.

The Overweight rating and $138.50 target are maintained for Rio Tinto. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $138.50 Current Price is $116.81 Difference: $21.69
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.75, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Rio Tinto's June-quarter operational result held, observes Morgans, as high-margin Escondida production outpaced estimates - enough says the broker to offset a medium-term easing in the iron ore prices

The broker spies risks to the timing of Pilbara iron ore mining approvals and trims iron ore forecasts accordingly.

Management advises costs are on the rise due to operational and social expenditure, and expects a -US$0.7bn working capital outflow at the full-year result.

Productivity improved, observes Morgans, and Simandou is on track. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold. Target price eases to $130 from $132.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $116.81 Difference: $13.19
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.75, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie observes the -17% decline in the SEEK Job Ad Index in the six months to June, and expects the index remains at these levels through FY25, representing an -8% year-on-year decrease.

The upcoming Seek result could be "messy", states the broker, due to the differences in treatment of Latam (estimated to generate $490m-$530m on sale).

Earnings forecasts are trimmed by -11% for FY24 due to the weak job ads and -26% for FY25 with Macquarie highlighting its estimates sit at -7% and -15% FY24/FY2 below consensus forecasts, respectively.

The target price is sliced by -21% to $23 from $29 and the stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.51 Difference: $1.49
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.46, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

UBS previews online classifieds for the 2H24 and believes the sector is well positioned to continue to underwrite growth via yields and price rises.

The broker anticipates investors will focus on the FY25 revenue/cost/yield guidance for Seek and it lowers the expected volume growth for FY25 to -6% from 2%, year-on-year.

Cost growth is estimated at 7.5% for FY25 as the company continues to invest through the cycle.

The target price is revised to $27.10 from $29.20 because of the sale of Brazil and Mexico and lower yield growth of 7%. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $21.51 Difference: $5.59
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.46, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban Group has six months to find a solution under the final NSW Toll Review Macquarie states, and highlights it appears less "antagonistic", with the need to respect contracts and produce broader reforms.

The broker believes it is too early to discount any earnings forecast changes, but points to the possibility of pressure on dividend growth in lieu of capital release/share buybacks as Transurban Group seeks an "upfront adjustment" in altered tolling versus a revenue adjustment model.

Neutral rating and $12.81 target unchanged.

Target price is $12.81 Current Price is $12.94 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.50, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following the release of the final report from the NSW Independent Toll Review (concession negotiations are next), Morgan Stanley believes NSW sovereign risk remains low.

The report recommends the NSW Government negotiates with concessionaires to reach in-principle agreement by the end of 2024, for the adoption of uniform distance-based network tolling across NSW by 2027.

Recommendation No 5, if adopted, would transfer traffic risk to the government, but would magnify rate and duration risk to Transurban Group investors, cautions the broker.

This recommendation suggests potential for a net present value revenue (NPVR) approach, where concessions expire once the road achieves its base case revenue NPV, explain the analysts.

Target $13.06. Equal Weight. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $13.06 Current Price is $12.94 Difference: $0.12
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.50, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its Brent crude oil price forecasts, raises estimates for JKM LNG and adjusts Henry Hub price forecasts.

At upcoming quarterly results for Viva Energy, the broker forecasts 1H Geelong Refining Margin of circa US$11.50/bbl, (consensus US$11.10/bbl). 

The Equal-weight rating is maintained, and the target falls to $3.64 from $3.75. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.51
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

UBS adjusts EPS forecasts for Viva Energy by -14.3% and -8.3% for FY24/FY25, respectively, because of lower expected refining margins which are somewhat offset by mark-to-market retail fuel margins in the June quarter.

The broker is also expecting headwinds from inflation and the cost-of-living pressures to weigh on retail fuel volumes.

Viva Energy is preferred over Ampol ((ALD)) due the clarity around its retail convenience offering.

The target price is lowered to $3.65 from $3.75 and the Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.52
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources