Australian Broker Call

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July 17, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 12:06 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CAB - CABCHARGE AUSTRALIA Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
CLW - CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
FMG - FORTESCUE Upgrade to Buy from Sell Citi
FNP - FREEDOM FOODS Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP Upgrade to Hold from Sell Deutsche Bank
NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
PPS - PRAEMIUM Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
SKI - SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
SXY - SENEX ENERGY Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
WOR - WORLEYPARSONS Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
APO  APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $6.30

Morgan Stanley rates APO as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

The broker is acting as financial adviser in relation to the scheme implementation deed with JCDecaux and cannot provide a rating or target at this stage.

Current Price is $6.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of 23.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 37.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AST  AUSNET SERVICES

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $1.60

Morgans rates AST as Add (1) -

Morgans factors in the draft WACC guidelines. A final decision is due by mid December. The broker's base case is that the guidelines are finalised in their draft form. This reduces the return on equity allowance.

Morgans lowers the target to $1.77 from $1.88. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.17
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.81

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Beach Energy's reserve upgrade suggests not only longer production life but also slower production decline in other fields, the broker notes. The broker has lifted its target to $1.62 from $1.23.

That said, Beach's longer term growth outlook is less compelling than peers and at the broker's US$55/bbl long-term forecast, the stock looks expensive. Sell retained.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 65.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAB  CABCHARGE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.25

UBS rates CAB as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS analysis suggests momentum has slowed for Uber in both app downloads and share of taxi expenditure. However, Cabcharge only recorded a minimal uplift as a result, and the majority of the benefit appears to have gone to competitors.

The broker suspects the market does not fully appreciate the complexity of the earnings drivers. UBS suggests the stock is stretched and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.15 from $1.65.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If CAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.13

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Charter Hall LW will divest 50% of the ATO Building in Adelaide for $135m to Charter Hall Direct Office Fund at book value. Ord Minnett considers this a good move as the transaction reduces risk and exposure to a relatively weak market, and frees up capital for another asset with a potentially higher risk-adjusted internal rate of return.

 The main issue the broker has is that the asset was not put to market, as this raises the question regarding whether Charter Hall LW received full value for the property. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds. Target is $4.30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.17
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.43

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

Fortescue plans to address widening discounts for lower grade ore by blending in ore from higher grade mines. Citi has increased its iron ore price forecasts and lowered its A$ forecast with the net result being a target price increase to $4.90 from $4.00.

The broker does have a concern that bringing new mid-grade ore onto the market to replace lower grade shipments will actually widen the discount for the former and tighten the discount for the latter, but the target price increase is sufficient to trigger a rating upgrade to Buy from Sell.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.47
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.54 cents and EPS of 45.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.42 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FNP  FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $6.01

Morgans rates FNP as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

The company has downgraded FY18 sales forecasts by -7% and Morgans note this is now the fourth year in a row Freedom Foods has missed expectations.  FY19 guidance is also lower. The broker believes consensus estimates are still too high and this may lead to further disappointment over time.

Whilst the company has a strong product portfolio, Morgans downgrades to Reduce from Hold on valuation grounds. Target is lowered to $5.50 from $5.90.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If FNP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.17.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.64.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXJ  FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $0.78

Morgan Stanley rates FXJ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

Fundamentally, the broker remains a structural bear on traditional media as the rate of technological change accelerates. Nevertheless, recent cyclical advertising strength can help to cover the earnings gaps.

Overweight rating and Attractive industry view maintained. Target is raised to $1.00 from $0.80.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.22
If FXJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of -7.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $8.05

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

The weather was not great in NZ in the second half but relatively benign in Australia, the broker notes, suggesting a strong chance of positive variance in IAG's weather allowance in its upcoming result. The broker is forecasting a gross margin above guidance.

Add in a mark to market of investments and the broker nudges up earnings expectations while retaining an $8.25 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: $0.2
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 44.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.49

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

The company has received a letter of interest from Euler Hermes that could provide $42m of export credit cover. Macquarie believes this should assist the company in securing the debt funding for Beyondie.

Key positive catalysts include completing the bankable feasibility study, a final investment decision and securing binding offtakes. Outperform and 60c target retained for Kalium Lakes.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.03.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.23

Credit Suisse rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Mirvac will acquire 80 Ann St Brisbane for $79m. Credit Suisse believes the outlook for the Brisbane prime office market is improving.

Prime incentives are expected to trend down to the 30-35% level and should augur well for the company's leasing of the remainder of the building, in the broker's opinion.

Credit Suisse Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $2.38 target.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.15
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MGR as Accumulate (2) -

Mirvac will sell 50% of its 80 Ann St Brisbane development for $418m on completion to the Asia Pacific fund of M&G Real Estate and has confirmed Suncorp's ((SUN)) pre-commitment to 40,000 sqm of the new building.

Ord Minnett believes Mirvac has the best-positioned investment portfolio in the sector and expects strong asset growth at the upcoming result. Accumulate rating and $2.55 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.32
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $14.20

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates MND as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Deutsche Bank has upgraded Monadelphous to Hold from Sell, with price target of $13.30.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $14.20 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.34, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.2, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC  NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $2.47

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

Fundamentally, the broker remains a structural bear on traditional media as the rate of technological change accelerates. Nevertheless, recent cyclical advertising strength can help to cover the earnings gaps.

Target is raised to $2.00 from $1.30. Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL  NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $9.00

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the June quarter net inflows were incredibly strong and 9% ahead of estimates. While structural tailwinds driving independent advice and platform flows are accelerating so to are the broker's assumptions for net inflows and funds under administration.

Yet, Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds and would welcome a step change in flows or a lower entry point to revise its recommendation. Target is raised to $9.00 from $6.40.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $0
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of -79.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 45.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $21.00

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

Equal-weight rating. Attractive industry view. Target is raised to US$17 from US$16.

Current Price is $21.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $22.24, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.63 cents and EPS of 64.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 72.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.9, implying annual growth of 22.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $8.84

Citi rates OSH as Sell (5) -

The broker has rolled forward discounted cash flow valuations for energy stocks under coverage.

Oil Search target rises to $6.81 from $6.76, Sell retained.

Target price is $6.81 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: minus $2.03 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 38.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 47.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.4, implying annual growth of 31.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAC  PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.70

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

The company has purchased 24.9% of Victory Park, a Chicago-based private credit manager. The company paid $95m the stake and expects to receive around a $9.5m post-tax contribution. Ord Minnett models the business conservatively and increases FY19 estimates for earnings per share by 31%.

The broker notes the non-bank lending sector in the US is a booming industry and while the sector can attract regulatory and legal scrutiny, Victory Park mitigates the risks contractually and by maintaining a diversified investment profile. Buy rating maintained. Target is $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $2.3
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS  PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $1.00

Morgans rates PPS as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Praemium reported strong June quarter inflows. Total funds on platform exceeded $8bn for the first time while Australian funds on platform grew 45% to reach a new record of $5.6bn.

The broker notes the company's separately managed account platform is considered one of the best platforms currently available.

Morgans rolls forward its base year and increases the valuation to $1.07 from $0.69. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.07
If PPS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 166.67.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $89.35

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

The broker remains bullish on real estate listings but notes the market has softened recently. Overweight rating, Attractive industry view maintained. Target is raised to $95 from $85.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $89.35 Difference: $5.65
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $84.71, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.40 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.3, implying annual growth of 23.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 141.30 cents and EPS of 269.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $79.24

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains a positive view on the mining sector heading into reporting season, expecting strong free cash flow and returns. The broker considers the leading macro indicators are robust despite the escalation of global trade tensions and a subsequent pullback in prices.

The sector is considered to represent solid value at spot prices. Accumulate rating for Rio Tinto and target is raised to $98 from $96.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $79.24 Difference: $18.76
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.56, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 427.54 cents and EPS of 933.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 740.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 420.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 405.58 cents and EPS of 674.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 645.2, implying annual growth of -12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 385.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV  SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.05

UBS rates SHV as Neutral (3) -

Select Harvests has an agreement with PepsiCo to distribute Lucky branded nuts, seeds and blends in China. UBS observes the market opportunity is large and the deal appears positive on initial impressions, although no financials were provided.

The broker makes no changes to food division earnings at this time and expects further details at the upcoming FY18 result on August 27. Neutral maintained. Target is raised $5.95 from $5.00.

A bigger 2018 Californian crop is estimated but the broker suggests current pricing looks sustainable. UBS raises FY18-20 estimates by 9-24% as a result of almond price increases.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.64.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKI  SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.23

Morgans rates SKI as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans factors in the draft WACC guidelines and the target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.57. The company is expected to start paying tax shortly and the WACC change is expected to affect revenues negatively.

Furthermore, the sustainability of the distribution at the current level into the next decade is now questionable.  Hence, the broker downgrades to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.31%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.99

Citi rates STO as Sell (5) -

Beach Energy's ((BPT)) reserve upgrade for the Cooper Basin may have positive implications for Santos, but the broker notes an equivalent upgrade would lead only to a small increase in valuation.

Target rises to $5.81 from $5.47, Sell retained.

Target price is $5.81 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 33.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 46.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.41

Citi rates SXY as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Beach Energy's ((BPT)) reserve upgrade for the Cooper Basin may have positive implications for Senex. Citi has increased its target to 45c from 40c, noting spot oil would imply 55c.

Citi sees the stock at fair value on its own long term forecast of US$55/bbl, but concedes upside for those with a more positive view. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.04
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TME  TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

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Overnight Price: $4.45

Morgan Stanley rates TME as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley re-calibrates valuations in the media sector and makes general upgrades to earnings across its coverage. The advertising market has surprised on the upside so far this year and for businesses with high fixed costs this matters.

Overweight retained. Target falls to NZ$5.40 from NZ$5.50. Attractive industry view.

Current Price is $4.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.04 cents and EPS of 22.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 24.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $50.03

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suspects the market is underestimating the exposure of Bunnings to the slowing housing cycle. After the Coles de-merger, the broker believes a greater focus on Bunnings will lead to a de-rating.

Morgan Stanley suggests the new management has done well to exit Bunnings in the UK and Ireland relatively painlessly and this leads to a lift in valuation.

Underweight rating retained. Industry view is Cautious. Target is raised to $42 from $39.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $50.03 Difference: minus $8.03 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.75, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.9, implying annual growth of -10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 261.0, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $5.33

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

After a strong run in the share price Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds. Despite the move, the broker does not believe the stock is expensive, particularly taking into account the capacity for capital management beyond the current dividend policy.

Still, the broker now has less conviction about the quantum of capital returns that may be delivered in August. There is also the risk of a moderation in FY19 guidance for Narrabri and questions over its longer-term sustained production rate. Target is raised to $5.00 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.86 cents and EPS of 53.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 32.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.73 cents and EPS of 53.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -

June quarter production was slightly below Ord Minnett's estimates. Mining and equipment issues at Narrabri have highlighted the challenges at this operation and the broker suggests FY19 production guidance of 7.7mt remains ambitious.

On the positive side, coal markets continue to surprise and the stock is considered quite cheap. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is raised to $5.45 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.12
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 32.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 62.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Saleable coal production in the June quarter was in line with UBS estimates. Maules Creek continues to perform well while Narrabri had a slower mining advance rate.

UBS notes Vickery is becoming an increasing priority and the environmental impact statement will be completed this month and is expected to be lodged in the second half of August.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and $6.05 target.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.72
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 32.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $17.73

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates WOR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank has downgraded WorleyParsons to Hold from Buy, with price target of $18.10 (was $17.74 in May).

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $17.73 Difference: $0.37
If WOR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.26, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.5, implying annual growth of 355.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of 27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $34.86

Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -

The broker has rolled forward discounted cash flow valuations for energy stocks under coverage.

Woodside target rises to $29.67 from $29.25, Sell retained.

Target price is $29.67 Current Price is $34.86 Difference: minus $5.19 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.08, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 238.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 178.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 218.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
APO APN OUTDOOR No Rating - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.30
AST AUSNET SERVICES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.60
BPT BEACH ENERGY Sell - Citi Overnight Price $1.81
CAB CABCHARGE AUSTRALIA Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.25
CLW CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.13
FMG FORTESCUE Upgrade to Buy from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.43
FNP FREEDOM FOODS Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $6.01
FXJ FAIRFAX MEDIA Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.78
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $8.05
KLL KALIUM LAKES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.49
MGR MIRVAC Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.23
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.23
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $14.20
NEC NINE ENTERTAINMENT Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.47
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.00
NWS NEWS CORP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.00
OSH OIL SEARCH Sell - Citi Overnight Price $8.84
PAC PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.70
PPS PRAEMIUM Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.00
REA REA GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $89.35
RIO RIO TINTO Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $79.24
SHV SELECT HARVESTS Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $6.05
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.23
STO SANTOS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $5.99
SXY SENEX ENERGY Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $0.41
TME TRADE ME GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.45
WES WESFARMERS Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $50.03
WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.33
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.33
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.33
WOR WORLEYPARSONS Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $17.73
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Sell - Citi Overnight Price $34.86
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

9

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

7

Tuesday 17 July 2018

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