Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

29Metals remains Hold rated with a lower target price of 32c, down from 35c. EPS forecasts are reduced by -2.4% and -6.5% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.1
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ACL as Buy (1) -

Citi has used a healthcare sector preview to the February results season to open a positive Catalyst Watch for Australian Clinical Labs.

The broker sees potential for an upgrade to FY25 guidance based on last year's AGM update and recent Medicare stats. The valuation is seen as "attractive".

Buy. Target $4 from $3.60. Slight downgrades implemented to forecasts.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.59
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Aligning with Morgans' standardised approach to estimates for tech and telco net profit after tax calculations, the analyst makes minimal changes to Ai-Media Technologies' earnings forecasts.

Morgans views the company's transition to an AI beneficiary from a technology company as on track, with management targeting an earnings goal of $60m by FY29. Achieving this would generate double-digit returns for investors, the broker notes.

No change to the Add rating and $1 target price.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.25
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Atlas Arteria is expected to report 4Q 2024 French traffic growth of 2%, based on recent data from other French toll road operations. Macquarie highlights this stands in contrast to the challenging economic and political backdrop.

The analyst believes the company's cash surplus position of 15c per share can offset the expected cash flow pressures from the French tax increases in 2H 2025. Dividend per share of 40c is forecast to be retained in 2025/2026, supported by a lower AUD.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 7.2% in 2025 and 7.3% in 2026, noting traffic at Greenway is also expected to be somewhat better than forecast.

Macquarie raises the target price to $5.53 (up by 20c) on a weaker AUD and slightly better traffic results. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $5.53 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.56
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Add (1) -

Morgans revisits the earnings forecasts for Atturra following three acquisitions and a capital raising over November and December 2024.

The broker retains an Add rating with a higher target price of $1.15.

Morgans believes the company operates in an "attractive" niche with higher IT growth services, growing revenue streams, and better-quality customers.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.13
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

Ahead of the February reporting season, Morgans updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Gaming sector.

The broker maintains its 36c target for BlueBet Holdings.

The Add rating is retained as the analyst continues to expect strong near- to medium-term growth driven by an increased marketing budget, which should enhance consumer awareness and support market share expansion.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.06
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Australian banks outperformed the overall market by around 24% in 2024, providing a safe haven for investors as the Materials sector weakened, explains Citi.

In 2025, the analysts see limited fundamental support for banks, citing deteriorating asset quality, high costs, and the potential for rate cuts negatively impacting revenue.

Citi maintains its underweight stance on Australian banks, assigning Sell ratings to all banks under its coverage, and adds a downside 90-day short-term view on CommBank, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, and Judo Capital.

For Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, the broker believes revenue expectations will slow partly because temporary funding benefits in 2024 need to reverse in 2025.

The $9.75 target and Sell rating are maintained.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: minus $3.58 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting downside of -18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Ord Minnett upgrades Bellevue Gold to Hold from Lighten, with a lower target price of $1.15, down from $1.35.

EPS forecasts are reduced by -38.1% in FY25 and -25.7% in FY26.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.05
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

BHP Group is preferred over Rio Tinto and retains an Accumulate rating, with the target price unchanged at $45.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -12.4% in FY25 and -8.7% in FY26.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.98 Difference: $5.02
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.31, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Materials sector in preparation for December quarter reporting.

For Boss Energy, the broker's target price slips to $2.70 from $2.75. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes slight changes to classifieds assumptions for media stocks, adjusting for platform volumes in 1H25 and some forex changes.

The broker believes 1H25 volumes for CAR Group increased by approximately 8% compared to the previous corresponding period.

CAR Group remains Hold rated with a $37.20 target price. The broker continues to await a more "attractive" buying opportunity for the stock.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $38.59 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.30, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Australian banks outperformed the overall market by around 24% in 2024, providing a safe haven for investors as the Materials sector weakened, explains Citi.

In 2025, the analysts see limited fundamental support for banks, citing deteriorating asset quality, high costs, and the potential for rate cuts negatively impacting revenue.

Citi maintains its underweight stance on Australian banks, assigning Sell ratings to all banks under its coverage, and adds a downside 90-day short-term view on CommBank, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, and Judo Capital.

For CommBank, the broker suggests its premium valuation is vulnerable to a de-rating, assuming material stocks do not face a further de-rating.

Unchanged  $91.50 target. Sell rating is maintained.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $155.75 Difference: minus $64.25 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.89, suggesting downside of -33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Citi's forecast for Champion Iron's December quarter earnings (EBITDA) of CA$109m is around -6% below the consensus estimate, driven by the broker's -3% lower price realisation forecast.

The quarterly is due on January 29.

The $7.40 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $1.48
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Capricorn Metals is Buy rated, with the target price raised to $8.10 from $7.50. Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 13.7% in FY25 and 17.7% in FY26.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $1.05
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.58, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Capstone Copper is Buy rated with a $13 target price and is the broker's preferred stock for exposure to copper, described as the "top choice" in base metals.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -31.3% and -48.3% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.06 Difference: $2.94
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.87, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi has used a healthcare sector preview to the February reporting season to re-iterate its Top Pick remains CSL, which is seen representing a double-digit EPS growth outlook at a reasonable valuation.

The broker believes the risk for a guidance change is low, though FX headwinds could be stronger as USDEUR continues to strengthen.

Also, the pressure is on for the new management (execution is key, says the broker) with few catalysts on the horizon outside of financial results.

Target $345. Buy. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $275.61 Difference: $69.39
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.79, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals reported second-quarter FY25 gold production of 28.4koz, exceeding Bell Potter's forecast of 25.9koz, with an average gold sale price of $4,010/oz, above the broker's estimate of $3,810/oz.

The production beat also led to a "solid" improvement in costs (AISC), note the analysts.

Management reaffirmed FY25 production guidance.

The Buy rating is maintained, and the target price increases to $4.45 from $4.30, supported by Bell Potter's lower Australian dollar forecasts.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $1.17
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals' 2Q25 production was "solid," according to Morgans, and met expectations. The company achieved 28.3koz of gold production, with management retaining FY25 guidance.

Revenue was below the analyst's forecast by -5% at $87m due to lower realised gold prices, down -4% compared to expectations.

Management repaid the final legacy debt of $36m from the consolidation with Plutonic Gold Belt. Catalyst is now debt-free and unhedged, the analyst states.

Morgans believes the company is well-positioned to generate strong earnings with rising gold prices on a weakening AUD.

Speculative Buy rated with a $4.04 target, up from $4.01.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.76
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Deterra Royalties is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, with a $4.40 target price. Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 8.8% and 9.7% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.33
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminum by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Emerald Resources is Hold rated, with a lower target price of $3.50, down from $4. Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 11.3% in FY25 and 12.1% in FY26.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Fortescue is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, with the target price raised to $21.10 from $20.50. The company is seen as attractively valued among iron ore producers during a seasonally stronger production period for Chinese steel production.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 9.7% and 17.5% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $18.89 Difference: $2.21
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.72, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Genesis Minerals to $3.35 from $2.80 after 2Q gold production of 57koz beat the broker's 54.4koz forecast.

Also, gold sales of 49koz were at an average price of $4,047/oz compared to the $3,860/oz forecast by the analysts.

Management maintained FY25 production guidance.

Bell Potter's target was also boosted by lower forecasts for the Australian dollar.

The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.49
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Genesis Minerals reported "strong" 4Q 2024 results with better-than-expected production, sales, costs, and cash flows.

Production exceeded the broker's estimate by 26% and was 18% above consensus at 57.1koz, with the Laverton mill's restart contributing positively. The mill is running at nameplate production of 3mt p.a., and Leonora is operating at nameplate capacity of 1.4mt per annum.

All-in-sustaining costs were lower than consensus but met Macquarie's forecast. Management provided FY25 guidance, which is expected to be achieved based on results to date.

The target price rises 6% to $3.30. No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.44
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Genesis Minerals reported a "strong" 2Q25 result, with production exceeding the analyst's expectations by 15%, up 50% quarter-on-quarter, and surpassing consensus by 18%.

The result was achieved due to higher grades at Leonora and improved performance at Laverton.

The analyst now believes FY25 production could exceed management's guidance.

Accumulate rating retained. The target price rises to $3.15 from $2.90, although Ord Minnett states the valuation appears fairly full at current levels.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.29
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Genesis Minerals reported record production in December quarter results of 57,055oz at an all-in-sustaining cost of $2,202/oz.

Management reconfirmed higher production and lower costs for the balance of FY25. Guidance stands at 190-210koz production and cost of $2,400/oz. The earlier-than-expected re-start of Laverton is ramping up smoothly.

The analyst notes stockpiles stood at 28,717oz and cash on hand increased to $238m, up $60m.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating and lifts the target price to $3.30 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.44
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Genesis Minerals' December quarterly activities report revealed production of 57koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,202/oz, significantly outperforming UBS's forecast of 46koz.

The broker attributes the beat to Gwalia mining a bulk high-grade stope and the Laverton mill restart exceeding expectations.

The analysts raise the FY25 outlook to 217koz, 9% above the midpoint of production guidance, with an AISC of $2,244/oz.

UBS downgrades the rating to Neutral from Buy following the recent strong share price. The target price increases to $3.00 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.14
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes Gold Road Resources reported 4Q 2024 production at the lower end of guidance as expected.

Gruyere production was "solid" at 91.6koz, with sales of 95.3koz, which were above the analyst's forecasts by 1% and 5%, respectively.

The company had cash on hand of $174m and $109m in bullion, a rise of $65m on the previous quarter. 2024 production of 92koz was slightly below the bottom end of guidance, the analyst notes.

Macquarie lifts the 2024 EPS forecast by 3% for the latest update.

The broker remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $2.35. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

IGO Ltd is Buy rated with a $7.50 target price. The broker lowers the FY25 EPS forecast by -7.1% and raises FY26 by 29.8%.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $2.37
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Sell (5) -

Australian banks outperformed the overall market by around 24% in 2024, providing a safe haven for investors as the Materials sector weakened, explains Citi.

In 2025, the analysts see limited fundamental support for banks, citing deteriorating asset quality, high costs, and the potential for rate cuts negatively impacting revenue.

Citi maintains its underweight stance on Australian banks, assigning Sell ratings to all banks under its coverage, and adds a downside 90-day short-term view on CommBank, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, and Judo Capital.

The biggest risk for Judo Capital is asset quality, according to the broker, noting the majors disclosed signs of credit stress in their business books at November results.

The $1.35 target and Sell rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

Ahead of the February reporting season, Morgans updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Gaming sector.

The target for Jumbo Interactive falls to $14.60 from $15.80 as larger jackpot revenue year-to-date has been softer-than-expected, leading to a -6% reduction in the analyst's underlying FY25 earnings (EBITDA) estimate.

The broker's FY26 revenue estimate also falls by -4%, reflecting recent lottery trends.

The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $2.08
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.40, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Add (1) -

Ahead of the February reporting season, Morgans updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Gaming sector.

The broker's target falls to $175 from $180 after land-based assumptions are adjusted to align with recent industry data. Assumptions for Social and iGaming remain unchanged. Add.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $143.15 Difference: $31.85
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $174.00, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Lovisa Holdings to Overweight from Equal-weight, identifying it as the fifth key small/mid-cap idea where the broker has conviction on earnings, and the stock has underperformed heading into 2025.

The analyst sees upside to store growth in FY25/FY26, based on an acceleration in January from website data. Sustaining this run rate would benefit the stock, as store growth is a "key driver" of the share price.

Lovisa is expected to report in late February, with the broker anticipating an improvement in gross margins to 20.8% from 19.5% due to operating leverage.

Overweight rating with a $33.25 target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $27.18 Difference: $6.07
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.71, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Arcadium Lithium is Hold rated with a target price of $8.60. Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -5.5% in FY25 and -4.6% in FY26.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $9.17 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If LTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Liontown Resources is upgraded to Hold from Lighten, with the target price lowered to 62c from 74c. Ord Minnett lifts the FY25 EPS forecast by 14.3%.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.04
If LTR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Materials sector in preparation for December quarter reporting.

For Lynas Rare Earths, the broker's target price rises to $5.70 from $5.60. Underweight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

MAC Copper is Buy rated with a $28 target price. Ord Minnett lowers EPS estimates by -0.6% in 2024 and -27.8% in 2025.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $10.99
If MAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

In preparation for the February results season, Morgans updates its forecasts for Maas Group.

The broker assumes recent acquisitions will contribute around $9m to FY25 earnings (EBITDA), resulting in a total earnings forecast of $234.5m.

The Add rating and $5.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.67
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Mineral Resources is Accumulate rated, with the target price lowered to $42 from $44. Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -26.3% in FY25 and -5.9% in FY26.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $36.01 Difference: $5.99
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.93, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

In a sector preview to the February results season, Citi analysts question whether growth is set to slow in 2025, on stagnating EV penetration, before re-accelerating in 2026.

They also highlight the PHEV FBT exemption in Australia ends in March. Car prices are weakening too (raising questions about 'yields').

Earnings forecasts generally have been cut for the sector. Smartgroup is the broker's top pick in the sector.

Target price for McMillan Shakespeare falls to $18.40 from $20.05. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $15.42 Difference: $2.98
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.84, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Add (1) -

Morgans has adjusted FY24 earnings for Megaport to remove a tax gain of $8.3m while also making marginal adjustments to earnings forecasts due to higher sales and marketing costs.

The broker has lowered earnings forecasts to the mid-range of management's FY25 guidance, which has negligible impact on the company's valuation.

No change to the Add rating and $12.50 target price. Management's reset of the business is viewed positively and positions the company for sales and earnings growth, Morgans explains.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $5.67
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi's healthcare sector preview to the February reporting season includes an upgrade to Neutral from Sell for Nanosonics. The broker's price target has improved to $3.40 from $3.15 on higher forecasts.

The upgrade is also in response to recent share price weakness.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.13
If NAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Newmont Corp is Buy rated with a $77 target price. Ord Minnett adjusts EPS estimates by -1.2% in 2024 and 0.6% in 2025.

Target price is $77.00 Current Price is $66.85 Difference: $10.15
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEU as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Neuren Pharmaceuticals with a Buy rating, noting the second generation of the company's product for treatment of orphan neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), known as NNZ-2591, provides the key commercial opportunity.

This treatment regulates the levels of insulin growth factor (IGF-1), a neurotrophic factor essential for brain development, by helping to stimulate dendrite growth.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals already holds FDA approval for its trofinetide treatment for rare NDDs, marketed as Daybue in the US and Canada through Acadia Pharmaceuticals.

The broker sets a target price of $29.30.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $17.02
If NEU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Nickel Industries is Buy rated with a $1.60 target price. Ord Minnett raises the 2025 EPS estimate by 4.7%.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.75
If NIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Materials sector in preparation for December quarter reporting.

The target for Northern Star Resources eases to $15.55 from $15.60. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

For the Gold sector in general, the broker suggests cost performance will be key.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett anticipates significant upside to its current target for Northern Minerals once the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the Wolverine deposit is released.

Drilling last year revealed a 75% increase in the measured and indicated resource in total rare earth oxides (TREO) tonnes and a 20% improvement in grade, highlights the brokers.

For now, the Speculative Buy rating and 3-cent target remain unchanged.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.01
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Add (1) -

Morgans updates earnings forecasts for NextDC to include the September $678m capital raising and the purchase of S7, although the holding costs on S7 remain unknown, the analyst states.

The company raised $2bn in gross new equity over 2024.

The target price is lowered slightly to $20 from $20.50, with the Add rating maintained.

The broker believes the stock is well-positioned to benefit from structural growth in demand for data centres, with expectations of ongoing new business wins and an expanded footprint.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.43 Difference: $4.57
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.12, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Materials sector in preparation for December quarter reporting.

For Paladin Energy, the broker's target price eases to $10.25 from $10.50. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Given issues faced in Q1, the analyst believes the focus will be on the success of plant maintenance at Langer Heinrich. An update is expected on water storage management. The shut down period was used to build some water supply buffer, explains the broker.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: $1.78
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.99, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett is under research restriction for Pilbara Minerals.

Current Price is $2.34. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Sell (5) -

Citi's sector preview to the February results season includes a big jump in price target for Pro Medicus --to $150 from $100-- but the rating remains Sell as the shares are trading at a higher price level.

Earnings forecasts have been upgraded.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $252.58 Difference: minus $102.58 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $209.25, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Perseus Mining is Buy rated with a $3.40 target price. Ord Minnett lowers the FY25 EPS estimate by -5.8% and raises FY26 by 0.3%.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.64
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAL as Add (1) -

In preparation for the February results season, Morgans updates its forecasts for Qualitas.

The broker adjusts its earnings skew more towards the 2H, reflecting lower transaction fees in H1 (resulting in a lower margin, which will revert higher in H2).

The $3.20 target is maintained. The analyst feels recurring organic income growth supports Qualitas' elevated valuation multiple. Add.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.52
If QAL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes slight changes to classifieds assumptions for media stocks, adjusting for platform volumes in 1H25 and some forex changes.

The analyst increases 1H25 volume growth to 6% year-on-year, along with a slight rise in price estimates. EPS forecasts are lifted by 0.5% in FY25 and 3% in FY26.

Hold rating and $215 target price are maintained. The broker continues to await a more "attractive" buying opportunity.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $236.54 Difference: minus $21.54 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $241.57, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi maintains its $134 target and Neutral rating for Rio Tinto following yesterday's December quarter operational results.

Yesterday's summary of the broker's research: In a first look at Rio Tinto's fourth-quarter production results, Citi describes a "solid" outcome as management focuses on delivering growth from major projects.

The broker highlights the successful ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine, while the Simandou high-grade iron ore project and Western Range mine remain on schedule for first production this year.

Pilbara shipments of 328.6mt in 2024 were in line with the broker's forecast, while bauxite production exceeded guidance of 53-56mt with 58.7mt achieved in 2024.

Mined copper production of 697kt in 2024 was up 13% year-on-year, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and higher grades at Escondida, note the analysts.

Management indicated Pilbara unit costs are expected to be in the upper half of the US$21.75-23.50/t guidance range due to inflation and lower production. Production guidance for 2025 is unchanged.

Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $14.39
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

It is Macquarie's view Rio Tinto reported mixed 4Q 2024 production results. The company delivered better-than-expected copper production and bauxite, up 10% and 9%, respectively, Macquarie notes.

Pilbara iron ore declined -1%, while aluminium and alumina rose 1% and 2%, respectively. Alumina production was in line with expectations, impacted by planned furnace shutdowns.

Oyu Tolgoi's conveyor to the surface was commissioned, with further developments expected to boost targeted production to over 500kt per annum.

Management indicated a potentially weak start to 2025 for iron ore, as the Pilbara blend strategy involves trade-offs between capex and grade quality. The broker views Simandou's grade quality as "key."

No change to the Neutral rating and $120 target price. The analyst prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) due to higher quality and lower risk in the earnings mix, plus a more attractive valuation.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $0.39
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes Rio Tinto reported 4Q 2024 iron ore production in line with consensus, while copper and bauxite results exceeded both consensus and the broker's forecasts.

SP10 iron ore growth was notably higher at 25%, compared to the analyst's expectations of 18%, suggesting delays in the company's replacement mines. Morgan Stanley forecasts 15% growth through to 2030, with 18% growth in 2025/2026.

Simandou is expected to be fully ramped up by 2027/2028, with initial mine gate production in 2025.

The analyst expects 2025 iron ore and copper costs to be announced with the 2024 results on February 19. No changes to EPS forecasts.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and a $136 target. Industry view: In-Line. BHP Group ((BHP)) is the preferred stock over Rio Tinto.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $16.39
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans believes Rio Tinto reported a "good" 4Q 2024 result with better-than-expected bauxite and copper results. Iron ore met expectations.

The broker commends the company for maintaining iron ore reserve replacement strategies despite notable "red and green tape."

Rio surprised the analyst with the low-grade SP10 iron ore product generating 25% of group shipments and achieving near benchmark parity in pricing. Costs for iron ore at Pilbara are expected to be at the upper end of guidance.

Simandou is on track, and Morgans forecasts a final dividend of US235c, a 60% payout.

Add rating and $129 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $129.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $9.39
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commoditys for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Rio Tinto is Buy rated with a higher target price of $132 from $131. Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -3.6% in 2024 and -3.2% in 2025.

Target price is $132.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $12.39
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's fourth-quarter production was in line with UBS's forecast, and FY25 production guidance was maintained. The broker's $124 target and Neutral rating remain unchanged.

Pilbara iron ore shipments for the fourth quarter reached 86Mt, bringing FY24 shipments to 329Mt, slightly below the guidance midpoint and around -1% below both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

Mined copper performed strongly, note the analysts, driven by higher grades at Escondida and the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground, despite continued weakness at Kennecott.

Target price is $124.00 Current Price is $119.61 Difference: $4.39
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.17, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

A sector preview to the February results season sees Citi opening a positive Catalyst Watch for ResMed, irrespective of longer-term risks and threats from GLP-1s, the broker adds.

High frequency data are showing strong growth in apps downloads for the December quarter, which should bode well for US devices sales, the broker suggests.

No changes made to forecasts at this stage. ResMed is scheduled to report Q4 financials on January 31st. Citi believes its forecasts are slightly above market consensus.

Neutral. Target $38.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $37.54 Difference: $0.46
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.08, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Add (1) -

In preparation for the February results season, Morgans updates its forecasts for Regal Partners, resulting in a $4.40 target, up from $4.30, partly due to a valuation roll-forward. The Add rating is maintained.

The broker now forecasts second-half funds under management (FUM) of $18bn, down from $18.2bn, and performance fees of $25m (previously $37.5m), in line with management's update on January 7.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.66
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Regis Resources is Sell rated with a $1.75 target price. Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 53.7% in FY25 and 92.1% in FY26.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RSG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

Resolute Mining is Hold rated with a 50c target. Ord Minnett tweaks EPS forecasts.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.095
If RSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

South32 is Buy rated with a raised target price to $4.35 from $4.25. Ord Minnett lowers FY25 EPS estimate by -9.1% and lifts FY26 by 14.4%.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.86
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

Morgans makes slight changes to classifieds assumptions for media stocks, adjusting for platform volumes in 1H25 and some forex changes.

The broker expects job ad volumes to decline by -11.5% year-on-year in 1H25, although the company's month-on-month data shows improvement in job ad volumes over 2Q25.

The target price rises slightly to $27.20. Add rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $22.33 Difference: $4.87
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.92, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

In a sector preview to the February results season, Citi analysts question whether growth is set to slow in 2025, on stagnating EV penetration, before re-accelerating in 2026.

They also highlight the PHEV FBT exemption in Australia ends in March. Car prices are weakening too (raising questions about 'yields').

Earnings forecasts generally have been cut for the sector. Smartgroup is the broker's top pick in the sector. Buy. Target falls to $9.60 from $10.45.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $1.83
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -

Morgans incorporates -$17.5m in expenses from the Optus fibre acquisition into 2H25 cash flow forecasts for Superloop.

Net profit after tax forecasts are lowered due to higher depreciation and lower net interest income in FY25 and FY26. The broker's EPS forecasts decline by -17.9% in FY25 and -35.3% in FY26.

The Add rating remains unchanged, while the target price rises to $2.40 from $1.70 due to a lower weighted average cost of capital. Morgans believes the stock is likely to be upgraded for organic growth and acquisitions.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.25
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Ahead of the February reporting season, Morgans updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Gaming sector.

The target for Tabcorp Holdings rises to 60c from 50c after the broker realigns earnings with guidance and consensus expectations.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett recommends buying shares of Tourism Holdings Rentals in anticipation of an inevitable recovery following recent cyclical headwinds.

The broker's analysis of the US market indicates the company's A&NZ RV motorhome rental business is likely to rebound as the interest rate easing cycle begins.

The Buy rating is maintained, while the target is reduced to NZ$2.90 from NZ$3.00.

Current Price is $1.85. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Add (1) -

Ahead of the February reporting season, Morgans updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Gaming sector.

The target for Lottery Corp eases to $5.30 from $5.40 partly because the broker lowers its FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -7% to $747m given tougher comparatives and relative underperformance compared to prior periods.

The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $0.46
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowers earnings forecasts for TPG Telecom by -2% for 2025/2026 due to increased operating costs, resulting in a decline in EPS estimates by -5% for 2025, reflecting the company's high fixed cost base.

Hold rating is retained with a $4.80 target price.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.2
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VNT as Hold (3) -

In preparation for the February results season, Morgans updates its forecasts for Ventia Services.

The target increases to $3.45 from $3.30 as the broker moderates the potential negative earnings impact from the ACCC civil proceedings to approximately -$250m per annum, down from -$500m per annum.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If VNT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WAF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett marks to market commodity prices for the December quarter.

The broker downgrades the 2025 copper price forecast by -14%, hard coking coal by -9%, thermal coal by -8%, and aluminium by -8% due to weaker commodity demand, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the impacts of Trump tariffs and other trade barriers.

West African Resources is Buy rated with a $2.10 target price. Ord Minnett lowers 2024 EPS estimate by -5% and lifts 2025 by 12.4%.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.49
If WAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes there are upside risks to consensus earnings forecasts for Zip Co in FY25 due to a weaker AUD.

Peer and competitor Sezzle in the US highlighted "exceptional holiday demand" and upgraded revenue guidance for 2024 to above 55% growth year on year.

Credit losses were also cited as in line with expectations, which concurs with statements from Zip Co's management, the analyst states.

Citi remains Neutral rated with a $3.15 target price.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.06
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources