Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Overweight (1) -

Having recently initiated coverage on ARB Corp with an Overweight rating and $56 target, which it retains, the broker addresses investor concerns over aggressive forecasts for the Ford Bronco collaboration.

While the analyst acknowledges being materially ahead of consensus forecasts, it's felt there is an adequate buffer for the volume assumptions and precedent for the price assumptions.

Forecasts solely pertain to the 2021 Bronco, but there will be a 2022 edition plus a new Raptor model, explains the broker. The Overweight rating and $56 target price are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $46.06 Difference: $9.94
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.74, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the T-ATS contract will be significant because it shows the Austal business is a key part of the US Navy's industrial base. Successful execution should allow the company to contest larger steel programs.

The contract gain does not solve the issues facing the company's US shipbuilding program as the LCS comes to an end but Citi still considers the contract a positive, as it builds steel credentials ahead of larger contract awards.

The broker estimates the price of the initial two ships in T-ATS will be 12% higher compared to the contract awarded to Gulf Island Shipyards in March 2020. Buy rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $1.17
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Hold (3) -

Austal has been awarded a US$145m contract to construct two T-ATS ships for the US Navy, which is the first steel-based contract for its US business and will signal the start of the transformation of the shipyard.

The contract includes options for up to three additional ships, bringing the cumulative contract value to a potential US$385m.

Ord Minnett considers this contract immaterial in the context of current revenue and envisages material downside risks to expectations over the next couple of years as the LCS program winds down.

The broker retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $2.20 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.27
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Outperform (1) -

The trading update at the AGM signalled improvement in gross profit continues, underpinned by private-label/exclusive lines.

Macquarie notes all stores have remained open and the profit improvement has been achieved through direct imports and using the supply chain infrastructure.

The broker makes minor changes to estimates and reduces the target to $6.11 from $6.15. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $6.11 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: $0.44
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Citrus could account for at least 40% of Costa Group's sales growth to 2025, Credit Suisse ascertains, after Citrus Australia published its strategy.

The broker notes around 10% of the Costa Group future crop will be sold to China and any reduction in demand could affect pricing. Furthermore the company is likely to remain an important consolidator as those growers that lack scale exit the market.

Overall, demand is still outstripping supply for Australian citrus, although the supply of mandarins is about to rise.

Outperform rating and $4.15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $1.06
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Taking into account latest plasma industry data, Morgan Stanley expects Ig volume will decline by -17% in FY22. It's felt this will be partly offset by a 9.7% increase in average selling price.

The analyst assumes a return to pre-pandemic plasma collections in the March quarter 2022. The broker maintains its Equal-weight rating and $280 target price. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $280.00 Current Price is $286.19 Difference: minus $6.19 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $305.32, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -

In-line with broader industry trends toward greater market segmentation, according to UBS,  the company has released its first minimalist full face OSA nasal mask. It has been named Evora Full and is similar to ResMed's ((RMD)) offering called F30.

The analyst points to a potential market share gain for OSA masks in FY22 though this is largely taken up in existing forecasts. The Sell rating and NZ$22.65 target are unchanged.

Current Price is $28.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $32.50, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HMC as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

While Home Consortium is exposed to favourable classes and has a supportive base, Ord Minnett assesses the strong share price performance means the stock is trading on very high multiples.

The business is well-placed to grow, yet the broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold on valuation grounds. Ord Minnett believes the stock is priced two years ahead of execution. Target is raised to $6.40 from $4.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Kalium Lakes has produced the first batch of sulphate of potash at Beyondie and Macquarie notes prices in some regions have risen above US$700/t.

The broker considers the production a major de-risking step for the company as it is the first Australian sulphate of potash producer.

Commissioning remains on budget and the ramp up to nameplate is expected by the third quarter of FY22. This will be key to capitalising on the high prices, the broker adds. Outperform rating and target lifted to $0.40 from $0.35.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.19
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

September quarter funds under management of $113.3bn were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. Outflows were significantly worse, at -$1.5bn, reflecting the largest quarterly outflows in the company's history.

Credit Suisse also suspects the Global Fund experienced further underperformance.

The broker retains a Neutral rating, assessing that the stock could fall below fundamental valuation as catalysts are likely to remain negative for at least the next six months. Target is reduced to $35 from $37.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.52 Difference: $2.48
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.81, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

In a further review of the quarterly funds performance, Macquarie assesses increased earnings volatility and a poor investment performance have resulted in material de-rating.

Flows are likely to remain under pressure for much of FY22 but the broker finds too much valuation support, given the 7% dividend yield. The stock is also trading at 13.7x one-year forward PE compare with a five-year average of 19.2x.

Thus the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $38.00 from $46.75.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $32.52 Difference: $5.48
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.81, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Noting substantial outflows in the September quarter, Morgan Stanley forsees a prolonged period of outflows for Magellan Financial Group. Lower flows and lower fees are thought to present downside risk to consensus earnings forecasts.

The analyst sees limited diversity and limited opportunity for inflows from new products. The Underweight rating and $34.00 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.52 Difference: $1.48
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.81, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Over the September quarter funds under management decreased by -$600m amid net outflows of -$1.53bn. The Global Fund has underperformed the index significantly over the past 12 months, affecting longer-duration performance metrics.

Fund performance is the main focus for investors, Ord Minnett asserts, particularly given the extent of recent underperformance. Amid a significant de-rating in the stock the broker retains a Hold rating and cuts the target to $36.00 from $48.50.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.52 Difference: $3.48
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.81, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Sell (5) -

UBS retains its Sell rating and lowers its target price to $29 from $35 after first quarter fund flows and performance dissapointed. Total outflows were -$1.2bn worse than expected, and underperformance is largely attributable to the flagship Global Fund.

The analyst points out the group's investment style will continue to be tested in the prevailing environment. There's thought to be more downside, particularly in retail, where fee levels remain high compared to peers.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $32.52 Difference: minus $3.52 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.81, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects APRA's increase to the minimum interest rate buffer for mortgage serviceability will reduce maximum borrowing capacity for a typical borrower by circa -5%.

Overall, the analyst doesn't expect a large impact on Mirvac Group's residential sales as its land projects are more aimed at the affordable product/owner occupier market. However, it's acknowleged that macroprudential measures may in time weigh upon house prices.

Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating and $3.30 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.4
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS expects green hydrogen demand to grow and in conversation with management learnt of Origin Energy's forecast for H2 exports from Australia in the range of 20-35mtpa by 2050.

The company considers it is well placed to compete, given its advantage of proximity to Asia, low geopolitical risk and high capacity for renewables.

Management thinks the main technical challenge for scale H2 production in Australia is the decision surrounding which H2 carrier to utilise for transport to Asia. The Buy rating and $5.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.13
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Concentrate shipments were 91,500 in the September. Strong spodumene prices underpinned a cash balance of $137m by the end of the quarter.

Citi believes the next catalyst for the stock will be a final decision on the POSCO downstream joint venture. Neutral/High Risk retained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.33
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was in line with forecasts, although cash flow was stronger than expected. Macquarie now incorporates the upgrade to reserve estimates which integrates Pilgan and Ngungaju.

This underpins a mine life of more than 25 years at Pilgangoora and the broker is confident further resource conversion will extend the life to around 30 years. Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.90 amid cuts to medium-term earnings forecasts.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.93
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

FY21 retail earnings (EBIT) were up 88%. Macquarie still believes this will be the record year in terms of margins, given the concessions, and FY22 EBIT and margins are likely to normalise.

The broker supports the company's decision to invest in inventory ahead of the likely demand associated with the re-opening of stores in NSW, and subsequently Victoria.

Macquarie suspects others may "miss the boat" given supply chain capacity and costs are under pressure. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $33 from $31.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.54 Difference: $3.46
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.20, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes significant pent-up travel demand exists and, with limited options internationally for some time, domestic leisure and Qantas should benefit.

As peers focus on profitability, a rational domestic aviation market is expected. Australia's NSW and Victoria, are set to open by November 5 and the remaining states reach vaccination targets by December.

As Virgin Australia has been downsized, Qantas is expected to benefit from market share gains. Ord Minnett estimates 70% share is achievable, given the network and superior offering, augmented by the loyalty program.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $6.50 from $5.80.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.88
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes network growth has been a driver of the company's long-term performance. Moreover, the broker concludes the impact of increased regulation and compliance will strengthen the network as obligations will cause the broking business to consolidate.

The current Trapped Capital initiative is also expected to boost the level of network equity ownership. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $5.30 from $4.90. 

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.52
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects Sims will be a key beneficiary of steel decarbonisation strategies and the stock is now "sufficiently" cheap" for an upgrade to Buy from Neutral even in a moderating scrap pricing cycle.

The company is also expected to benefit from scrap demand growth in China as EAF steel production rises over time.

The broker suspects the second half earnings per tonne in FY21 of US$76/t was the peak for the current cycle and expects this will retrace to a through cycle level of US$23/t in FY24, which is in line with historical levels. Target is reduced to $18 from $19.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.42 Difference: $5.58
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects APRA's increase to the minimum interest rate buffer for mortgage serviceability will reduce maximum borrowing capacity for a typical borrower by circa -5%.

Overall, the analyst doesn't expect a large impact on Stockland's residential sales as its land projects are more aimed at the affordable product/owner occupier market. However, it's acknowleged that macroprudential measures may in time weigh upon house prices.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, $5 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.6
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley gleans a positive read through for Sonic Healthcare from an overseas EU peer in Synlab, after further revenue guidance upgrades due to higher covid testing.

Were the analyst to symplistically apply the Synlab growth rate to Sonic Healthcare, 9% and 10% upside risk can be generated for FY22 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts.

The Overweight rating and $45.50 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $45.50 Current Price is $39.44 Difference: $6.06
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.41, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLK as Neutral (3) -

Kinetic has been awarded the Melbourne Metropolitan Bus Franchise contract and Macquarie takes the opportunity to review the Sealink Travel tendering prospects.

While the company missed out on this contract in Melbourne the broker believes there is scope in Sydney, Singapore and, further afield, Melbourne. In Singapore a $4bn opportunity is estimated.

The outcome of the Melbourne bus contract has no impact on Macquarie's estimates but estimates for earnings per share are lowered to better capture the headwinds in London. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $7.85 from $8.80.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: $0.23
If SLK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.59, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates commodity price forecasts for the energy sector, which generally results in upgrades to short-term earnings estimates and valuations.

The broker retains a Buy rating for Santos, which is its preference in the sector, and raises the target to $8.05 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.62
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.05, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Recent success at Lockyer Deep has extended the Perth Basin gas discovery and Macquarie notes there are numerous catalysts for the company heading into 2022.

While recent delays have held back the share price, drilling of South Erregulla is the main catalyst in December and the broker anticipates success could deliver more than 50% upside to the stock.

Macquarie also expects pressure to mount on the Western Australian government to lift or relax the onshore gas exporting ban as the resource in the Perth Basin grows. Outperform retained. Target is steady at $0.60.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.33
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

A number of economic indicators suggest to UBS a stronger consumer with intentions to spend on retail. The broker expects Super Retail Group will enjoy a strong post lockdown recovery, and after upgrading EPS forecasts lifts its rating to Buy from Neutral.

Moreover, the share price has slipped -11% since the FY21 result, and the broker lifts its target price to $13.50 from $13.20.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $2.01
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.77, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Competitor Duckhorn has shown a benefit from a strong recovery in sales, observes Citi, although the pace of recovery has slowed recently because of an increase in delta cases.

The broker emphasises the rise of the delta variant in the US has been a factor behind its conservative forecast for first half sales in Treasury Wine Americas, despite recent feedback from its European analysts that US wholesalers and customers are stockpiling ahead of the holiday season in the fourth quarter.

Neutral rating and $12.86 target reiterated.

Target price is $12.86 Current Price is $12.15 Difference: $0.71
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.98, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes one of its concerns that membership may fall away during lockdowns has not eventuated. The company's update signalled slightly better-than-expected revenue in August and select rural locations not subject to lockdowns were probably a contributing factor.

Clubs have also obtained a path to reopening that is earlier than the broker expected. As of August, Viva Leisure has retained 97% of memberships.

The company will now start to increase its roll-out and has 21 greenfield locations in its sights. Citi forecasts six new locations in the first half. Buy rating reiterated. Target is raised to $2.83 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.83 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.52
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources