Australian Broker Call
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March 30, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
UWL - | Uniti Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
WPL - | Woodside Petroleum | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
Overnight Price: $13.44
Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -
With ALS recently upgrading full year guidance by 6% at the mid-point, now anticipating $260-265m, Macquarie notes the company should continue to benefit from the increased capacity and price environment through to the end of the year.
The company increased its commodity network capacity by 15%, while the recent MinAnalytical acquisition boosted WA capacity 40%. The broker notes increased capacity delivered some benefit in the second half but expects a larger impact in the year ahead.
Macquarie forecasts 15% EPS growth in FY23, up from a previous 11%.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.70 from $14.00.
Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $1.26
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.77, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.0, implying annual growth of 48.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.3, implying annual growth of 11.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates APA as No Rating (-1) -
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is predicting gas demand will decline -21% by 2030 and -40% by 2050, but Macquarie finds continued near-term opportunity for APA Group in addressing the declining southern state supply.
According to the broker, without government policy enforcing the closure of the gas network to new connections the rapid decline predicted by the AEMO appears unrealistic.
Macquarie sees opportunity in the stage 2 and 3 expansion of the South West Queensland and Moomba Sydney pipeline systems, which it anticipates will add around 180 terajoules to daily capacity.
The broker is on restriction.
Current Price is $10.59. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.61
UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -
UBS raises its 2022 Brent oil forecast to US$95/bbl from US$81/bbl. For 2023, the estimate climbs to US$85/bbl from US$80/bbl and then to US$80/bbl from US$75/bbl for 2024, while US$75/bbl is unchanged for 2025.
All changes are mainly driven by impacts from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, explains the analyst, and the long term (from 2026) Brent forecast also rises to US$75/bbl from US$70/bbl. UBS also increases its JKM LNG forecast by 14-108% between 2022-24.
The broker raises its price target for Beach Energy to $1.85 from $1.65 and retains a Buy rating.
Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.24
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 96.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of -19.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COL COLES GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $17.93
Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Supermarkets are set to be the largest beneficiaries of the budget measures, with consumers more able to absorb rising food prices, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains its Buy rating and $19.30 target for Coles Group.
Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $17.93 Difference: $1.37
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.32
Macquarie rates CVN as Neutral (3) -
Carnarvon Energy has completed a $70m equity raise to boost its balance sheet ahead of the Dorado final investment decision, with Macquarie expecting the company can now fund a 10-12.5% stake in Dorado.
The broker anticipates Carnarvon Energy may only need to sell 7.5-10% in Dorado, which coupled with a 30% selldown from Santos ((STO)) implies an approximate 40% stake could be on the table for a new entrant.
Macquarie has all eyes on the drilling of the Apus-1 discovery in April, with the well offering a larger prospect than Pavo North. A successful drilling program could add a further 50-60% to the broker's valuation, and de-risk Apus.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.32 from $0.36.
Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EML EML PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $2.89
Macquarie rates EML as Outperform (1) -
EML Payments looks to benefit from the impacts of interest rate forward curves on its $2.7bn stored client balances according to Macquarie. The broker predicts interest on stored balances will peak at 1.7% in FY24, equating to a $45m interest revenue upside.
Further, the broker expects the removal of the Cental Bank of Ireland growth cap will support the growth of the company's gross profit ratio in FY23.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.95 from $3.80.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $1.06
If EML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of 81.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Consumer Electronics
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Overnight Price: $5.61
Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Discretionary retailers are set to potentially benefit as consumers may allocate a portion of benefits to investment in the home, cars and hobbies, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains the Buy rating and $5.90 target price for Harvey Norman.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.29
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.1, implying annual growth of -24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of -16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $55.21
Citi rates JBH as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Discretionary retailers are set to potentially benefit as consumers may allocate a portion of benefits to investment in the home, cars and hobbies, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains the Neutral rating and $55 target price for JB Hi-Fi.
Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $55.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 272.00 cents and EPS of 417.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 241.00 cents and EPS of 368.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 374.5, implying annual growth of -9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.65
Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley sees 10% (bearish scenario) and 33% (bullish scenario) growth in online total transaction value (TTV) for Jumbo Interactive. The broker's forecast incorporates 20% growth from strong new customer adds and market share projections.
The analyst points out total online sales, the company's share of online sales and customer acquisition is positively correlated with high jackpots.
The Overweight rating and $22 target are retained. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.65 Difference: $3.35
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.13, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of 20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.70 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $202.83
Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -
Macquarie Group had previously guided to a sizeable commodities income increase in FY22 prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has now driven volatility in energy and equity markets that will likely further support the company's result, according to Ord Minnett.
The company had suggested a 15-25% increase to commodities income, and Ord Minnett now predicts commodities income will reach 27% growth on the previous year, equating to $3.4bn, before declining to $2.6bn in FY23.
The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $227.00 from $223.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $227.00 Current Price is $202.83 Difference: $24.17
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $221.60, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 632.00 cents and EPS of 1190.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1129.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 653.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 622.00 cents and EPS of 1086.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1043.4, implying annual growth of -7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 645.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.51
Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Supermarkets are set to be the largest beneficiaries of the budget measures, with consumers more able to absorb rising food prices, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains its Neutral rating and $4.40 target for Metcash.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.51
Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -
Nearmap has updated the market with a range of announcements, including that the North American annual contract value (ACV) has surpassed US$50m, up at least US$5.5m from December 31.
The achievement of more than $150m ACV for the group is also welcomed by Morgan Stanley.
The analyst believes the signing of the company's largest-ever government contract in North America is evidence of differentiated value add from products such as 3D and artificial intelligence.
The $2.60 target price and Overweight rating are retained. Industry view In-Line.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $1.09
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.31
UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -
UBS raises its 2022 Brent oil forecast to US$95/bbl from US$81/bbl. For 2023, the estimate climbs to US$85/bbl from US$80/bbl and then to US$80/bbl from US$75/bbl for 2024, while US$75/bbl is unchanged for 2025.
All changes are mainly driven by impacts from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, explains the analyst, and the long term (from 2026) Brent forecast also rises to US$75/bbl from US$70/bbl. UBS also increases its JKM LNG forecast by 14-108% between 2022-24.
The broker raises its price target for Origin Energy to $7 from $6.75 and retains its Buy rating.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.31 Difference: $0.69
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.4, implying annual growth of 35.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $21.50
Credit Suisse rates SGM as Outperform (1) -
Following an investor day presentation by Sims, Credit Suisse is increasingly confident of structurally higher scrap prices due to a green premium (via the carbon price) and the increased price for coking coal.
As a result, the broker lifts its FY25 scrap price by US$40/t to US$350/t. The price target rises to $25.40 from $21.30 and the Outperform rating is maintained.
Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $21.50 Difference: $3.9
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 82.17 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.5, implying annual growth of 113.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 87.17 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.6, implying annual growth of -26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SGM as Buy (1) -
While prices remain strong and demand high for scrap, Sims largely focused on opportunities outside its core scrap trading operations at its recent investor day, with Ord Minnett noting diversification could offer further value to the stock price.
Company commentary focused on lifecycle services, resource renewal and energy as potential areas of opportunity, and while further detail is required on necessary expenditure and returns potential the broker sees positives in the strategy.
The Buy rating and target price of $20.00 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $21.50 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.5, implying annual growth of 113.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.6, implying annual growth of -26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.53
Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -
Following the FY22 results Citi believes near-term earnings visibility for Sigma Healthcare is limited. Also, given ongoing issues with ERP implementation and distribution centre restructuring, risks are considered to be skewed to the downside.
The company reported a net loss of -$7m due to the above-mentioned issues and change in SaaS accounting methodology. The broker retains its Neutral rating and increases its target price to $0.52 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SIG as Neutral (3) -
Following FY21 results for Sigma Healthcare, Credit Suisse believes there is significant short-term earnings uncertainty and lowers its target price to $0.51 from $0.53. The latter was partly attributable to a new reporting methodology.
While the pre-announced loss of -$7.2m was in-line, the analyst considers cash flow was weak. Under the direction of new CEO Vikesh Ramsunder all explicit guidance was withdrawn.
Management noted operational issues from the rollout of its ERP system led to a -1% loss in market share. The Neutral rating is maintained as no significant upside for the share price is expected.
Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 0.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.07 cents and EPS of 2.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SIG as Neutral (3) -
Although Sigma Healthcare reported a 1.3% sales increase for FY22, totaling $3.45bn, the company acknowledged ongoing issues with the implementation of its ERP software continues to impact sales. Macquarie notes system stabilisation is expected by end of April.
Company commentary has suggested the remote training of staff and new processes have hindered the ERP roll out but full optimisation is expected in January.
The company is also nearing the completion of its $390m, five-year investment cycle. The broker expects capital expenditure to normalise between $5-10m from FY24.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.52 from $0.53.
Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in January.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -
UBS raises its 2022 Brent oil forecast to US$95/bbl from US$81/bbl. For 2023, the estimate climbs to US$85/bbl from US$80/bbl and then to US$80/bbl from US$75/bbl for 2024, while US$75/bbl is unchanged for 2025.
All changes are mainly driven by impacts from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, explains the analyst, and the long term (from 2026) Brent forecast also rises to US$75/bbl from US$70/bbl. UBS also increases its JKM LNG forecast by 14-108% between 2022-24.
The broker estimates Santos has the most valuation upside and is the most preferred exposure under its coverage of the sector. The target rises to $9.90 from $8.90. Buy.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $1.98
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.27, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 77.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 73.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.6, implying annual growth of -21.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $10.46
Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Discretionary retailers are set to potentially benefit as consumers may allocate a portion of benefits to investment in the home, cars and hobbies, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains the Buy rating and $14.50 target price for Super Retail.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $4.04
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.68, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 94.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.4, implying annual growth of -28.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $11.85
Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -
In a meeting with Treasury Wine Estates, Citi established that Treasury Premium Brands is aiming to drive profitable volume growth of its priority brands. In addition, an expansion is planned into new markets in Continental Europe, Africa and Asia.
The company wants to be a leader in quality low and non-alcoholic wines and sees the growth potential in the zero alcohol category being driven by younger consumers.
The Buy rating and $13.78 target are retained.
Target price is $13.78 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $1.93
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.34, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 27.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 55.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 24.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.64
Ord Minnett rates UWL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Uniti Group has received a revised takeover offer from the Morrison & Co and Brookfield Infrastructure consortium of $5 per share, up from a previous bid of $4.50 per share. Ord Minnett notes Uniti Group is exclusively engaging with the offer, and has not engaged with a competing offer from the Connect consortium.
The broker finds Uniti Group's assets, including private fibre assets, a more than 290,000 premise pipeline and high margin network revenues, demand a multiple at the mid to high end of the 15.5-28.0x multiple range achieved by recent telco infrastructure purchases.
The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target price increases to $5.00 from $4.05.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $0.36
If UWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 9.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 12.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $50.65
Citi rates WES as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Discretionary retailers are set to potentially benefit as consumers may allocate a portion of benefits to investment in the home, cars and hobbies, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains the Neutral rating and $50 target price for Wesfarmers.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $50.65 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $54.10, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.2, implying annual growth of -7.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.9, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WOW WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $36.86
Citi rates WOW as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the Federal Budget should provide an around $8bn boost to household disposable income spread between FY22 and FY23.
Supermarkets are set to be the largest beneficiaries of the budget measures, with consumers more able to absorb rising food prices, explains the analyst.
The broker maintains its Buy rating and $40.30 target for Woolworths Group.
Target price is $40.30 Current Price is $36.86 Difference: $3.44
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.08, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 124.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.8, implying annual growth of -27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 144.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.81
UBS rates WPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
UBS raises its 2022 Brent oil forecast to US$95/bbl from US$81/bbl. For 2023, the estimate climbs to US$85/bbl from US$80/bbl and then to US$80/bbl from US$75/bbl for 2024, while US$75/bbl is unchanged for 2025.
All changes are mainly driven by impacts from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, explains the analyst, and the long term (from 2026) Brent forecast also rises to US$75/bbl from US$70/bbl. UBS also increases its JKM LNG forecast by 14-108% between 2022-24.
Nonetheless, the broker downgrades its rating for Woodside Petroleum to Neutral from Buy as shares are approaching full valuation. The price target rises to $34.60 from $29.
Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $32.81 Difference: $1.79
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.55, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 323.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 310.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 270.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.1, implying annual growth of -22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ALQ | ALS | $13.48 | Macquarie | 14.70 | 14.00 | 5.00% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.59 | UBS | 1.85 | 1.65 | 12.12% |
CVN | Carnarvon Energy | $0.32 | Macquarie | 0.32 | 0.36 | -11.11% |
EML | EML Payments | $2.97 | Macquarie | 3.95 | 3.80 | 3.95% |
MQG | Macquarie Group | $207.15 | Ord Minnett | 227.00 | 223.00 | 1.79% |
ORG | Origin Energy | $6.33 | UBS | 7.00 | 6.75 | 3.70% |
SGM | Sims | $21.60 | Credit Suisse | 25.40 | 21.30 | 19.25% |
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | $0.52 | Citi | 0.52 | 0.50 | 4.00% |
Credit Suisse | 0.51 | 0.53 | -3.77% | |||
Macquarie | 0.52 | 0.53 | -1.89% | |||
STO | Santos | $7.88 | UBS | 9.90 | 8.90 | 11.24% |
UWL | Uniti Group | $4.69 | Ord Minnett | 5.00 | 4.05 | 23.46% |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | $32.67 | UBS | 34.60 | 29.00 | 19.31% |
Summaries
ALQ | ALS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.44 |
APA | APA Group | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.59 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.61 |
COL | Coles Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $17.93 |
CVN | Carnarvon Energy | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.32 |
EML | EML Payments | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.89 |
HVN | Harvey Norman | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.61 |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $55.21 |
JIN | Jumbo Interactive | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $18.65 |
MQG | Macquarie Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $202.83 |
MTS | Metcash | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.51 |
NEA | Nearmap | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.51 |
ORG | Origin Energy | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $6.31 |
SGM | Sims | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $21.50 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $21.50 | ||
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.53 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.53 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.53 | ||
STO | Santos | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.92 |
SUL | Super Retail | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.46 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.85 |
UWL | Uniti Group | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.64 |
WES | Wesfarmers | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $50.65 |
WOW | Woolworths Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $36.86 |
WPL | Woodside Petroleum | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $32.81 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 14 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 8 |
Wednesday 30 March 2022
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FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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