Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett adjusts forecasts for a2 Milk Co on weaker growth expectations for infant milk formula in China due to a lower-than-expected birth rate in 2024 and the impact of a stronger US dollar.

A favourable currency movement more than offsets softer demand, leading to EPS forecast upgrades by the analyst.

The broker considers A2 Milk as an attractive investment, with potential earnings upgrades and a new dividend policy, expected to commence with an interim payout in the 1H of FY25.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and raises its target price to $6.20 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.36
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AEF as Buy (1) -

Australian Ethical Investment achieved record funds under management (FUM) of $13.3bn as of 31 December.

This positive outcome was driven by net inflows of $173m, explains Ord Minnett, despite a seven-week disruption from transitioning superannuation services to GROW and custody services to State Street.

The analyst notes an administrative transition should lower costs and improve operational leverage in the medium-term. 

While flows from the compulsory superannuation channel missed Ord Minnett's forecast, the broker anticipates 2H improvement now the administrative changes are finished.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating on Australian Ethical, with a target price of $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $1.6
If AEF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Following Citi's first take on BHP Group's 2Q25 report, the broker believes the company is on track to achieve the upper half of FY25 guidance for Western Australian iron ore, Samarco, and coal operations, with FY25 copper guidance unchanged except for South Australia, where Olympic Dam volume guidance was lowered due to the power outage.

Unit cost guidance for FY25 was unchanged, except for Copper South America. Citi trims FY25 earnings forecasts by -4%, with FY26 estimates remaining unchanged.

Target price of $46 and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $5.39
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes BHP Group's second-quarter operational update showed copper production exceeding consensus expectations, while other assets were in line.

Realised iron ore prices of US$82.1/wmt FOB and copper prices of US$3.73/lb came in weaker-than-anticipated by the broker.

The analyst reduces the FY25 dividend forecast by -13%, citing net debt of US$12bn as a constraint on paying above the 50% minimum payout.

The Outperform rating and $42 target are maintained.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $1.39
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley describes BHP Group's second quarter as "strong" operationally, with most products meeting or exceeding both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

The analysts anticipate a slightly negative impact on revenue and earnings (EBITDA) due to lower realised copper prices. A stronger performance for copper in Chile offset weaker-than-expected Copper South America sales, explains the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $48.50. The industry view remains Attractive.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $7.89
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes "solid" December-quarter production for BHP Group, with volumes across most commodities meeting or exceeding expectations, although costs came in higher-than-forecast.

Realised prices for copper and iron ore disappointed, and net debt was higher-than-expected, by the analyst.

Management maintained FY25 guidance, except for South Australian copper operations, where bad weather disrupted power supply at Olympic Dam.

The Western Australia Iron Ore, Samarco, NSW energy coal, and BHP Mitsubishi Alliance metallurgical coal businesses are expected to meet the upper half of FY25 guidance.

The broker lowers its FY25 DPS forecast by -7% as net debt could approach the higher end of BHP’s target band in FY25 due to Samarco-related payments and the Filo acquisition.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating while lowering the target price to $43.00 from $44.00.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $2.39
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights a "strong" operational December quarter for BHP Group, evidenced by management raising FY25 guidance to the upper half of the range for WA iron ore, Samarco (iron ore pellets), and metallurgical coal.

The analysts note copper production met forecasts, with stronger output at Escondida offsetting weaker results at Copper South America, while cost guidance remained unchanged.

Realised prices fell short of expectations, highlights the broker, with weaker-than-anticipated outcomes for copper, iron ore, and metallurgical coal.

The broker maintains its $42 target for Neutral-rated BHP Group.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $1.39
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Boab Metals' December quarter update showed a cash balance of $3.5m at the end of 2024, notes Shaw and Partners.

The broker highlights silver as one of its preferred commodities for 2025 and emphasises the company's Sorby Hills project as one of the most advanced silver developments on the ASX.

The Buy, High Risk rating, and 40c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.235
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi's first take on Beach Energy's 2Q25 report highlights robust pricing due to higher prices at Waitsia, with timing on cargo movements driving changes in realised prices.

The broker finds the decline in Western Flank rates disappointing compared to consensus estimates, which may lead to downgrades.

Management retained FY25 guidance with a wide range for Waitsia due to uncertainty around the timing of first gas production.

First gas remains scheduled for 2Q25, though Citi notes ongoing risks of schedule slippage. Activity details for Otway will be provided in the 1H25 earnings report.

Sell rated with a $1.30 target price.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: minus $0.175 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

UBS expects a tight LNG market in 2025, followed by a balanced market in 2026 and an accelerating surplus from 2027.

The broker marks-to-market for fourth-quarter Brent crude prices, trimming forecasts slightly to US$74/bbl from US$75/bbl.

UBS lowers its fourth-quarter North Asian spot LNG price (JKM) to $13.9/mmbtu from $14.50/mmbtu but raises its 2025-26 forecasts to $14.1/mmbtu and $11.50/mmbtu, respectively, from $12.75/mmbtu and $11.25/mmbtu.

In order of preference, the broker favours Santos, Beach Energy, and Woodside Energy.

The Buy rating and $1.55 target for Beach Energy are maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.075
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Brazilian Rare Earths has extended mineralisation at its Monte Alto project through drilling results, defining 700m of strike and 550m of plunge with ultra-high-grade zones. 

There is ongoing exploration in the region, with further drilling planned and a drone aeromagnetic survey to refine exploration, notes the analyst. Brazilian Rare Earths aims to establish a JORC-compliant resource for Monte Alto by Q2 2025.

Ord Minnett maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a $5.50 target price.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $3.22
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

No change to Buy rating and $21 target price for Coles Group which is the preferred supermarket and benefiting from disruptions at Woolworths Group.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.16 Difference: $1.84
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.54, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Capstone Copper's 2025 guidance has come in lower than expected on production and higher costs.

Management forecasts copper production of 220-250kt at US$2.20-US$2.50/lb, with Pinto Valley underperforming due to waste stripping, the broker notes.

The company's 2024 results fell below guidance, with 4Q24 disappointing the market. Meeting FY25 guidance will be critical for investor confidence, and a new CEO is set to take over in May.

A final investment decision on Santo Domingo is not expected in 2025. Citi notes inclusion in the ASX200 in March could offer a short-term tailwind.

Target price slips -10c to $13.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $9.95 Difference: $3.55
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett forecasts CSL will report 1H FY25 underlying net profit of US$2.24bn ($3.6bn) on February 11, 3% above market forecasts and 11% higher year-on-year.

Group revenue is forecast to rise by 7%, with the Behring division leading with 9% growth, Seqirus increasing by 5%, and flat revenue for Vifor.

The broker anticipates double-digit EPS growth of 12% for FY25, underpinned by margin recovery in Behring plasma operations, supported by lower collection costs, price rises, and production efficiencies.

While management expects gross margin recovery within three to five years, Ord Minnett assumes it will take closer to five years.

The broker maintains a Buy rating with a $318.00 target price.

Target price is $318.00 Current Price is $273.42 Difference: $44.58
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $333.79, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Citi highlighted "top picks" for small caps (ex-ASX 100) on 13 January, detailing key points for Corporate Travel Management ahead of the February reporting season.

Domestic travel appears to have stalled in 1H25 in A&NZ, though international travel continues to grow, which the analyst believes should benefit the company's margin mix. The analyst is cautiously optimistic on Sleepspace.

In the US market, total passenger growth continues, with airline earnings reports indicating the corporate travel market lags behind overall growth.

Citi sees a "material opportunity" for the stock, noting a valuation discount of -30% to longer-term levels, combined with EPS at levels -10% to -15% below pre-COVID.

Buy rated with a $13.90 target price.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYG as Buy (1) -

Management at Coventry Group, which specialises in industrial supply and services, recently highlighted its Trade Distribution branches on the east coast of Australia were facing some “short-term” macroeconomic volatility, highlights Bell Potter.

The broker also points out the company's closest listed peer in New Zealand reported "continued deterioration" in the NZ economic environment during July-October 2024 trading.

In light of these factors, the analysts retain a Buy rating while lowering the target price to $1.60 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.415
If CYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Citi's first impression of Evolution Mining's 2Q25 report suggests a likely positive market response.

Production and costs were better to in line with consensus, while higher commodity prices drove record cash flow.

The analyst highlights cash flow as a standout, boosting cash on hand by 36% over the prior quarter to $520m.

Citi notes growth in capex exceeded expectations due to the pull-forward of -$80m in Mungari capex to FY25 from FY26.

Buy rating maintained with a $5.50 target price.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi shares some read-through insights from the Prologis earnings call regarding the outlook for Goodman Group.

The analyst highlights Prologis' data centre pipeline developments with 200-400MW of new projects in 2025 and a ten-year pipeline of 10GW.

Citi believes this reinforces Goodman's positive stance on data centre demand, noting the group's pipeline could grow to 10GW-11GW if demand evolves beyond the current disclosure of 5GW in data centre development power bank.

The broker notes Prologis divested Elk Grove for $2.1bn to DigiCo ((DGT)), managed by HMC Capital ((HMC)).

Buy rated with a $40 target price.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $37.85 Difference: $2.15
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.14, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights GPT Group has announced another step in transitioning the business toward a higher contribution from funds management through co-investment in growth areas.

The group detailed a partnership with GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund for Rouse Hill Town Centre and co-investment in Highpoint Shopping Centre, the analyst notes.

Citi estimates net proceeds from the transactions at approximately $178.1m after costs, with funds expected to repay debt and reduce gearing. Settlement is due by 31 March.

Buy rated with a $5 target price.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.42
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Buy-rated Hub24 to $79.20 from $73.00 due to a positive market update and a change in valuation method.

Management revealed consensus-beating net inflows, highlights the broker, and reiterated confidence in meeting targeted FY26 Platform funds under administration (FUA) of between $115-$123bn.

Helping de-risk the analysts' fund flow forecasts and management's FY26 guidance, the company announced a $1.3bn FUA ‘transition’ win from Clearview Wealth ((CVW)).

Target price is $79.20 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $6.77
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Following up on Citi's initial take on Hub24's 2Q25 report, the analyst highlights flows continue to exceed expectations, coming in 9% above estimates.

The broker upgrades FY25 net flow forecast by 8% to $18.8bn, including $3.6bn in large transactions from platform migrations, such as Clearview Wealth ((CVW)).

Citi lifts EPS forecasts by 2.5% and 3.7% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and emphasises net flow forecasts may still be "conservative."

No change to Neutral rating. Target price rises to $74.50 from $73.80.

Target price is $74.50 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $2.07
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Hub24's 2Q25 update saw platform funds under administration (FUA) grow 36% year-on-year to $98.9bn, above consensus forecasts, Morgan Stanley observes.

Platform net inflows rose 23% year-on-year to $5.5bn, including $1.5bn from EQT Holdings ((EQT)) migrations. Market movements added $1.8bn over the quarter.

The EQT transition is proceeding in line with expectations, with an additional $0.9bn to migrate in 2H25, the broker highlights. Management retained FY26 FUA guidance at $115bn-$123bn compared to consensus at $127bn.

The quarter was another better-than-expected report, and Morgan Stanley anticipates upside risk to FUA targets.

Morgan Stanley reconfirms a "keep" Overweight rating. Target price $71. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnet upgrades Hub24 to a Buy rating following a strong 2Q update, reflecting broad-based natural flows and a robust operating performance.

Hub24 reported net flows of $5.5bn, meeting the broker's expectations, and platform funds under administration (FUA) of $98.9bn as of 31 December, an 8% increase for the quarter.

Total FUA, including non-custody assets, reached $120.9bn, up 7%.

Further growth is anticipated, with $0.9bn of Equity Trustees ((EQT)) FUA yet to transition and potential opportunities such as the Clearview Wealth Foundation’s ((CVW)) $1.3bn mandate in H2 FY25, explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett anticipates strong new business growth and a favourable competitive environment. The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts or valuation and retains a $73.00 target price

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $0.57
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Hub24's headline net flows for the second quarter exceeded expectations, driven by large client migrations, robust organic net flows, and solid adviser growth.

Management remains on course to surpass its FY26 funds under administration (FUA) guidance of $115-123bn, with the broker forecasting $134bn.

Despite the strong operating momentum, UBS sees limited valuation appeal and retains a Neutral rating. The target rises to $75.50 from $70.

Target price is $75.50 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $3.07
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

Target price for Harvey Norman slips to $5.20 from $5.50. No change to Buy rating. The company is the second preferred discretionary retailer after JB Hi-Fi.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $0.44
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Citi observes a disappointing December quarter report from Iluka Resources, with mineral sands revenue falling -17% below the analyst's estimate and zircon, rutile, and synthetic rutile volumes down -12%.

Pricing was mixed, with average zircon sand premium and standard prices below Iluka's guidance, down -4.8% on the prior quarter. Citi notes zircon prices declined from 3Q, while rutile and synthetic rutile saw slight increases.

Management plans to remove 130 roles, which Citi estimates will deliver a -$20m cost reduction for 2025.

The company indicated proposed tariffs on Chinese imports to Europe and other regions in 1H25 may benefit Western pigment producers.

Buy rated, High risk, with a $6.10 target price.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.78
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

JB Hi-Fi is the preferred retail exposure with a revised target price of $110, up from $85. Buy rated.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $98.01 Difference: $11.99
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $81.44, suggesting downside of -19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Citi views the closure of Kogan.com's competitor Catch by Wesfarmers (WES) as a net positive for Kogan.com.

The analyst notes Catch's web traffic matches Kogan's, though its app user base is larger.

Potential migration benefits are seen as "tempered," as only a portion of Catch customers are expected to move to Kogan. Similar declines in web traffic and app usage between the two suggest customers are migrating to other competitors.

Citi highlights the closure of Catch as indicative of the challenging environment for domestic online marketplaces due to competition from Amazon, eBay, and Temu.

No change to Sell rating and $4.50 target price.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: minus $1.42 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Management at Liontown Resources has maintained 2H FY25 guidance for production and sales as part of its December quarter operational update.

Spodumene concentrate production of 89kt at 5.2% Li2O beat the broker's 62kt forecast, supporting revenues of $90m (Bell Potter forecast $63m).

Speculative Buy rating and $1.40 target price unchanged.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.695
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the strength in Liontown Resources' share price following the better-than-expected 2Q25 production report and higher-than-forecast cash.

The analyst appreciates the ramp-up of spodumene concentrate and highlights plant recovery as a key focus for the company. Stockpiles continue to grow as a contingency, Citi explains.

An increase in spodumene prices toward US$900/t has alleviated some pressure on the company's balance sheet, the broker notes.

Citi lowers EPS forecasts by -4.1% and -0.8% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

No change to Neutral rating and 60c target price.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

Liontown Resources reported a "strong" 2Q25, according to Morgans, with production above forecasts and unit operating costs lower than expectations.

Spodumene production of 88.7kt was considerably higher than consensus, driven by the Kathleen Valley ramp-up, with spodumene sales of 81.3kt versus Morgans' and consensus forecasts of 61.7kt and 59kt, respectively.

The analyst raises 2H25 production assumptions based on the robust quarter and lowers near-term opex assumptions to align more closely with guidance.

Target price rises to 68c from 60c. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources reported 410koz of gold production and all-in-sustaining costs of $2,128/oz, broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecasts for the December quarter.

Underlying free cash flow rose to $72m in 2Q25 from $52m in 1Q25, and management guided to an interim DPS of 20c-30c. FY25 guidance was retained, though the analyst notes FY25 gold production is trending slightly lower than the bottom end of guidance.

The broker lowers AUD:USD forex assumptions for FY25 and FY26, which supports a rise in nominal AUD gold price forecasts. Bell Potter lowers the FY25 EPS estimate by -2% and raises FY26 by 8%.

Target price advances to $20 from $19.55 with no change to Buy rating.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $2.74
If NST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources reported December quarter production and sales of 410koz, below consensus forecasts by -20koz, with all-in-sustaining costs 6% higher, Citi states.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -11.7% and -6.8% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, expecting the company to report slightly below the low end of FY25 group-level earnings guidance.

Citi retains the target price of $17 and Neutral rating, highlighting growth prospects for Kalgoorlie but believes the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition, expected to complete in May, detracts from Northern Star's "clean" gold exposure.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as No Rating (-1) -

Second-quarter production and sales for Northern Star Resources fell short of forecasts by Macquarie and consensus, driven by a softer performance at Kalgoorlie, though management retained FY25 guidance.

The broker anticipates a stronger second half, supported by improved grades from the open pit and continued growth in underground output at KCGM.

Macquarie remains under research restriction and provides no target or rating.

Current Price is $17.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Northern Star Resources' 2Q FY25 production missed Ord Minnett's forecast by -5%, impacted by lower grades and recoveries at KCGM during East Wall remediation.

The remediation is now complete, notes the broker, with production expected to increase by 14% in H2 as higher-grade material from Golden Pike North and ramp-ups at Fimiston and Mt Charlotte contribute.

FY25 guidance remains unchanged at 1.65-1.8moz, with costs (AISC) between $1,850-$2,100/oz, supported by higher grades and improved operations in H2.

The broker highlights the pending completion of the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition, expected by May 2025, which adds strategic benefits despite near-term challenges.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with a target price of $16.80, down from $17.00.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS notes ongoing pit wall remediation at Northern Star Resources' KCGM operations restricted access to grade, leading to a production miss for the second quarter against the broker's forecast.

Yandal met expectations, while Pogo continued its strong performance, notes the broker. Management has maintained its FY25 production guidance.

UBS believes the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition remains on track for completion by early May. The Buy rating and $19.05 target are maintained.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $1.79
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy's 2Q25 activities report shows production of 0.64mlb, below Citi's estimate of 0.68mlb, but in line with management's expectations and aligned to achieve FY25 revised production guidance of 3-3.6mlbs.

The broker notes sales were lower than expected at 0.5mlb of U3O8 due to a delay in deliveries to January.

Citi states management has resolved water issues, with the 12-day shutdown completed and water storage levels increased for a future buffer.

Increased capex is linked to the next tailings facility, the analyst notes.

Pre-conference call target remains $13.50 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $5.15
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.51, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PIQ as Reduce (5) -

Proteomics International Laboratories' cash balance remains a point of concern ahead of upcoming commercial launches of new tests, notes Morgans after reviewing the company's second-quarter update.

The period saw $285k in cash receipts from analytical services and an operating cash burn of -$2m, excluding the receipt of a $2.2m FY24 R&D rebate, highlights the analyst.

The Reduce rating and 50c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: minus $0.195 (current price is over target).
If PIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria delivered a strong 2Q FY25 performance, in Ord Minnett's view, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) rising by $12m quarter-on-quarter to $132m, including a $7m foreign exchange tailwind.

Segment performance across the US, UK, and A&NZ was robust, notes the broker, with growth of 27%, 12%, and 51% year-on-year, respectively.

The closing weighted pipeline of $11m was up 70% year-on-year, indicating to the analysts strong growth potential for H2.

Ord Minnett raises its price target to $0.56 from $0.51 and retains a Buy rating, citing Qoria’s attractive valuation and positioning for further growth.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.1
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates QOR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Qoria's second-quarter FY25 trading update and cash flow report revealed annual recurring revenues (ARR) of $32m, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase. Shaw and Partners also notes the first half was free cash flow (FCF) positive, including interest.

The broker believes its FY25 forecast of $142m in ARR is increasingly achievable, supported by a strong pipeline for the second half.

The Buy rating, High Risk classification, and 52c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.06
If QOR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners reported funds under management (FUM) of $18bn as of 31 December, up 4.6% for the quarter, driven by record annual net inflows of $2.1bn, explains Ord Minnett.

The $2.1bn net inflows included a $720m inflow in Q4 and a $200m offshore commitment. Despite this, second-half performance fees of $25m missed the broker's $35m forecast.

The analysts lower EPS forecasts by between -6-10% due to lower performance fee assumptions.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on Regal Partners and lowers its target to $4.40 from $4.50. An attractive fully franked dividend yield is noted.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.67
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Management at South32 kept all FY25 operational guidance unchanged following a "strong" second quarter, notes Macquarie, with most assets exceeding consensus forecasts.

The analyst sees upside potential at Cannington and Sierra Gorda, while the port restart at the manganese operations at Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) is identified as a key catalyst.

The Outperform rating and $4.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.82
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

While working capital and cost management remain challenging for South32, UBS notes a strong operational performance across most assets in the December quarter.

Aluminium and copper production exceeded consensus forecasts by 6% and 11%, respectively, with Cannington delivering strong silver and lead output, highlight the analysts.

FY25 production guidance remains unchanged, but the broker observes higher raw material costs, particularly for aluminium, pushing unit costs 5-10% above guidance.

The Buy rating and $4 target price are maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.42
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has deferred the Dorado oil and gas field project (offshore Western Australia), notes Ord Minnett, despite attractive forecast returns.

Management has opted not to proceed with front-end engineering and design or acquire a floating production storage and offloading vessel, pushing the final investment decision (FID) beyond 2025.

The decision aligns with the company's strategy to prioritise shareholder returns over capital expenditure on growth projects, with the broker not expecting a FID until 2028.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $8.40 target for Santos.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $1.27
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS expects a tight LNG market in 2025, followed by a balanced market in 2026 and an accelerating surplus from 2027.

The broker marks-to-market for fourth-quarter Brent crude prices, trimming forecasts slightly to US$74/bbl from US$75/bbl.

UBS lowers its fourth-quarter North Asian spot LNG price (JKM) to $13.9/mmbtu from $14.50/mmbtu but raises its 2025-26 forecasts to $14.1/mmbtu and $11.50/mmbtu, respectively, from $12.75/mmbtu and $11.25/mmbtu.

In order of preference, the broker favours Santos, Beach Energy, and Woodside Energy.

The target price for Santos rises to $8.25 from $8.15 after the broker incorporates new pricing forecasts and updates forecasts for output from Cooper Basin and WA assets for Q4 2024. Buy.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $1.12
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

Super Retail is the third preferred discretionary retailer with a Buy rating and no change to $19 target price.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.49 Difference: $3.51
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.38, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Sell (5) -

Citi's first take on Woodside Energy's 4Q24 report suggests slightly "softer" activities and outlook.

The analyst notes headline numbers met expectations and consensus estimates, but further inspection reveals underlying weakness. LNG pricing was softer, though offset by higher LNG trading revenue, which was in line.

Pricing at North West Shelf, Bass Strait, and Trinidad & Tobago was weaker than anticipated.

Management provided no updates on Scarborough or Louisiana LNG.

Woodside is set to report 2024 results on 14 February. Sell rated with a $23.50 target price.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects a tight LNG market in 2025, followed by a balanced market in 2026 and an accelerating surplus from 2027.

The broker marks-to-market for fourth-quarter Brent crude prices, trimming forecasts slightly to US$74/bbl from US$75/bbl, while leaving forecasts unchanged.

UBS lowers its fourth-quarter North Asian spot LNG price (JKM) to $13.9/mmbtu from $14.50/mmbtu but raises its 2025-26 forecasts to $14.1/mmbtu and $11.50/mmbtu, respectively, from $12.75/mmbtu and $11.25/mmbtu.

In order of preference, the broker favours Santos, Beach Energy, and Woodside Energy.

The target price for Woodside Energy falls to $27.40 from $28.30.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $1.67
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

Target price for Wesfarmers declines to $59 from $61 with a Sell rating retained. The analyst envisages the weak AUD as causing challenges for the more vertically integrated retailers including Wesfarmers, Premier Investments and Super Retail.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $72.88 Difference: minus $13.88 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.67, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Years of losses and rising competition have led to Wesfarmers announcing Catch will cease operating as a standalone business in the fourth quarter of FY25, explains Morgan Stanley.

Catch's online customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) will be integrated into Kmart Group's e-commerce operations.

Management has maintained FY25 guidance for -$70m in losses for OneDigital, Wesfarmers' digital and data division.

Underweight rating. Target price $60.70. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $60.70 Current Price is $72.88 Difference: minus $12.18 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.67, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Sell (5) -

UBS commends the financial discipline shown by management in winding down the Catch business and transferring distribution centre assets to Kmart, which will result in Wesfarmers incurring one-off costs of -$50m to -$60m.

The broker retains a Sell rating for Wesfarmers, citing earnings multiples that remain too high relative to the available growth.

The target increases to $69 from $66, reflecting a higher assumed multiple and improved long-term earnings forecasts.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $72.88 Difference: minus $3.88 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.67, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Citi has updated its outlook for retail, anticipating robust 1H25 reports for most companies, with strength expected to continue into 2H25.

The broker's household spending indicator suggests an uplift of $70bn for FY25, up from $55bn, driven by stronger-than-expected income growth.

FY25 implies a more modest increase, though the expectation of three domestic interest rate cuts should improve consumer sentiment, the analyst states.

Investors are expected to focus on margins this season, reflecting achieved sales growth over November and December.

Citi has a 90-day upside catalyst watch on JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman with industry feedback suggesting there is upside risk to consensus earnings.

Woolworths Group remains Neutral rated with a lower target price of $33 from $34.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.18 Difference: $2.82
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.69, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter updates forecasts for WiseTech Global's change in reporting currency to USD from AUD. The analyst has made "little" changes to assumptions on growth, margins, and similar factors.

The broker highlights FY25 earnings estimates stand at the upper end of management's guidance range.

An increase in the weighted average cost of capital lowers the target price to $136.25 from $140. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $136.25 Current Price is $118.97 Difference: $17.28
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources