Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

Alumina prices are downwardly adjusted in line with a negative outlook for aluminium, which drives material earnings downgrades for Alumina Ltd over the next two years.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target lowered to $1.65 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.12
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

A bearish copper view is now included in the broker's forecasts. With a strong balance sheet and plenty of organic growth, Credit Suisse suggests there may be an opportunity to sidestep a decision on Jansen.

Outperform rating and $39 target maintained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $31.45 Difference: $7.55
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.96, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BIN as Hold (3) -

Bingo Industries' update indicates the company is struggling in difficult conditions, given exposure to the construction industry, but the broker suggests Bingo is being well managed with a focus on cost cutting and cash preservation.

The broker has nonetheless slashed forecasts, expecting FY20 earnings will fall below previous guidance (now withdrawn) and FY21 will fall further, before a recovery in FY22.

When the recovery comes, the company will be well placed. But the broker believes a lower entry point will become available. Target falls to $2.29 from $2.81, Hold retained.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.18
If BIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Beacon Lighting is the only retailer under Morgans' coverage not to provide a virus-related update. This is possibly because as a trade supplier, Beacon's stores have remained open.

The broker suspects stay-at-home demand may have buffered earnings, supported by a lack of large scale competition.

Consumer sentiment will no doubt remain volatile as the reality of high unemployment and a weak economy hit home, but Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold on valuation. Target falls to 93c from 97c.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.16
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses Beach Energy is resilient as it is held up around 20% better than its larger peers since the pandemic outbreak. Much is riding on the market update regarding the FY21 outlook, due by August.

A major run-up is considered highly likely once markets recover, as the company has a material gas business which is not linked to oil prices.

The oil business is cash flow positive over US$10/bbl, but including operating and sustaining capital expenditure the broker suggests the company needs US$15/bbl and closer to US$25/bbl to cover growth expenditure. Outperform rating and $1.73 target maintained.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse forecasts Idelvion sales will peak in FY23 at US$630m, with modest declines thereafter because of competing therapies.

In a bear case scenario, the broker envisages a -3% downside risk to forecasts in the outer years.

No changes are made to estimates but Credit Suisse awaits further clinical trial data before assessing the profiles of competing therapies. Outperform rating and $329 target retained.

Target price is $329.00 Current Price is $301.18 Difference: $27.82
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $314.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Corporate Travel has confirmed domestic travel exposure is around 60% which implies leverage to an earlier cycle recovery.

Morgan Stanley assesses the liquidity buffer is sound and the probability of a distressed capital raising has moderated significantly.

Target is $15. Overweight rating retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $3.06
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTD as Hold (3) -

Corporate Travel Management has a low cost base, is capital-light and has plenty of available liquidity relative to peers. Thus the broker believes the company is well placed to ride out the crisis and unlike competitors, will not need to raise capital.

Some 60% of revenues come from domestic travel thus a return to profitability can be foreseen once markets begin re-opening, given the company's high level of high-margin online penetration. But the recent rally in the stock price keeps the broker on Hold. Target rises to $13.10 from $7.59.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $1.16
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Accumulate (2) -

Caltex Australia has reiterated guidance for an EBIT uplift of $195m by 2024. Ord Minnett is pleased with the cost savings to date and notes capital expenditure is being tightly managed.

The company remains committed to strategic initiatives to release capital in the second half of 2020. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $30 from $26.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.50 Difference: $5.5
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.39, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The virus impact on Cleanaway Waste Management's operations has largely netted out to flat, given falls in demand for collections in Commercial & Industrial, other than supermarkets, have been offset by increased residential collections. The company says it's still on track to meet prior FY20 guidance but has withdrawn guidance nonetheless.

Morgans assumes relatively flat earnings across FY20-21 before lifting again from FY22. Target falls to $2.12 from $2.17, upgrade to Add from Hold.

Target price is $2.12 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.23
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the pandemic will accelerate the structural shift of food delivery and upgrades FY24 food delivery estimates. There is also potential for upside over the medium term via industry consolidation.

Still, the broker acknowledges aggregators are closing the gap to Domino's Pizza in terms of food delivery. Neutral rating and $50.80 target maintained.

Target price is $50.80 Current Price is $56.76 Difference: minus $5.96 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $55.43, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group has reiterated FY20 guidance, which includes unchanged performance fee expectations. The pandemic has not materially affected development sites while only 3% of investment income is from small-medium enterprises.

The business has also been preparing for a downturn, through maintaining low gearing and funding growth largely from capital recycling and retained earnings.

Credit Suisse considers the stock a solid core holding and any price dips could provide a more attractive entry point. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $14.76 from $15.97.

Target price is $14.76 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: $0.35
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group has indicated an increase in demand for both temporary and permanent space amid structural tailwinds such as e-commerce, data usage and higher inventory levels.

Although there is limited valuation support, Macquarie notes there are several positives for the investment thesis including structural benefits and a solid balance sheet.

The broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised 8% to $14.01.

Target price is $14.01 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Goodman Group has reaffirmed FY20 guidance. During the March quarter, work in hand increase to $4.8bn and external assets under management are now $5.1bn.

There were net revaluation gains during the quarter which Morgan Stanley suggests highlights the resilience of global industrial assets.

Overweight rating. Target is $15.80. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: $1.39
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Goodman Group has reaffirmed FY20 guidance for 11% growth. The pandemic appears to be having only a modest impact, as tenant demand remains strong across the company's key industries. Less than 3% of tenants are seeking abatements.

Ord Minnett expects earnings momentum to remain strong as significant development and performance fee profits have built up.

FY22 growth will be predicated on further development activity and the maintenance of margins. Hold maintained. Target is raised to $13.10 from $12.60.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: minus $1.31 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Structural trends driving the business in the March quarter were stronger than UBS anticipated. The development outlook remains very robust with work in progress of $4.8bn.

The company continues to focus on organic growth opportunities in land-constrained markets. FY20 guidance for 11% earnings growth has been retained.

UBS also notes concerns about the maintenance of development work have been dissipated by the company's statement it is progressing $3-4 bn in development transactions. Neutral rating and $16 target maintained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: $1.59
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

Australian Radio Network has outperformed the market in the first quarter but the second quarter trends are worse than Credit Suisse expected, with April revenue down more than -40% and May looking similar.

The high levels of client cancellations have eased but there is significant uncertainty around forward bookings, suggest the analysts.

Credit Suisse was most interested in the launch of dynamic advertising, with the company showing the adoption results in a 240% increase in customer conversions.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.09
If HT1 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

The company has indicated that operating initiatives and JobKeeper will reduce the 2020 cost base by -18%.

The March quarter was weak but materially better than the broader radio market. April and May radio bookings are signalling revenues are down over -40%.

However, Macquarie notes the outlook for June and beyond is more positive as lockdown restrictions are likely to ease.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $1.15.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HT1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

Credit Suisse is more positive on nickel versus other base metals, expecting the price to increase to US$6/lb in 2021 as the surplus shrinks to 44,000t and demand rebounds.

Underperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.40 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the early release of super has resulted in account closures and underscores the potential for revenue headwinds.

The company continues to expect a PEXA capital return in 2020 but the broker envisages increased risk of delay, given the heightened level of uncertainty.

Still, the current valuation appears attractive and the balance sheet is solid, so the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.96
If LNK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -

Link Administration's update held no surprises for the broker. Virus headwinds remain the issue in the near term. Link's gearing is higher than the broker would like, in the wake of the PES acquisition, but not unmanageable given strong cash flows.

Hence the broker does not see an equity raising being needed. The broker has cut earnings forecasts on said headwinds and dropped its target to $4.86 from $5.95, still well above the trading price. Add retained.

Target price is $4.86 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $1.32
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNK as Buy (1) -

Link Administration's update indicated, while over 80% of revenue is recurring, the pandemic-related volatility is weighing on revenue. Division outcomes were broadly as UBS expected.

On a positive note, initial early releases of super are tracking below expectations. UBS believes cost reductions will be limited by increased superannuation administration switching.

With the pandemic slowing the progress of the global transformation there is lower support from cost reductions as well. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.65 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $1.11
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley envisages very limited risk to the company's demand profile and guidance relative to its broader small cap coverage. This implies a compelling risk/reward profile into the August results.

The broker highlights the material outperformance of the company's closest peers as quarterly results in the US come to light. Overweight rating retained. Target is $5.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.51
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Judging from Citi's initial commentary, Macquarie's interim result, released today, proved disappointing. The analysts are suggesting Macquarie missed expectations by circa -5%, and then there was a much lower than anticipated interim dividend on top.

Impairments equally surprised on the upside. The analysts are not that surprised Macquarie did not want to provide any guidance. Too uncertain times.

Citi analysts do believe there is plenty in today's interim report for the bulls as well, such as the opportunity to deploy record surplus capital of $7.1bn in volatile markets. Sell.

Target price is $123.50 Current Price is $105.19 Difference: $18.31
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $117.65, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Buy (1) -

Macquarie Group's interim performance missed expectations at Ord Minnett, but seemingly by a rather small margin only (but the "miss" goes across many metrics of today's report).

The analysts note no guidance was provided while the dividend cut was much deeper than anticipated. Buy. Target $112.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $105.19 Difference: $6.81
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $117.65, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

In initial response to today's release of financial interim numbers, UBS believes the result itself was "broadly in line" with market expectations, but then no guidance was forthcoming and the dividend has been cut by -50%.

Looking into the finer details, a more accurate assessment seems to be that Macquarie's performance fell short of consensus forecasts, albeit not by a significant margin.

UBS agrees the outlook for Macquarie Group looks challenging. The analysts indicate they are of the intent of leaving the $105 valuation and price target untouched. Neutral.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $105.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $117.65, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Resume coverage with an Outperform rating (1) -

Macquarie updates impairment forecasts across the major banks, incorporating peak loss rates of around -13 basis points for the housing portfolio, -475 basis points for unsecured loans and -105 basis points for institutional and SME.

There is additional dilution from the capital raising for National Australia Bank. The broker resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $17 target.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.09 Difference: $0.91
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.28, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

While monthly policy sales were down -22% in April lapses, excluding suspensions, improved. However, Citi wonders whether affordability pressures will become more pressing over the next few months.

The delay in the premium increase by six months has cost the company -$25m but the possibility of a cash refund for additional claims savings once these have been determined has been left open.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $5.55 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.63
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Nib Holdings has noted that ancillary claims have been down -60% since the pandemic restrictions, although these services are now beginning to come back.

The company has also reiterated there is a three-month delay before the true claims figure from hospitals for any period can be interpreted. Hence, it will be June at the earliest before any reduction in claims for the March quarter will be known.

The company has remained firm regarding the prospect of a full-year dividend. Macquarie considers the stock fully valued and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $4.80 from $4.95.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Resident health insurance sales were down -22% in April but lapses eased. The company expects international visitors and travel will remain profitable despite the pressures from the pandemic.

Morgan Stanley assesses the capital position will be tempered by the possibility of member compensation, provisioning for claims catch-up and the investment performance.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $5.05. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.13
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Accumulate (2) -

The business is experiencing fewer lapses in April 2020 compared with April 2019. Modest savings in the March quarter were in evidence for Australian residential health insurance and more is expected later.

Ord Minnett observes nib Holdings is trading at a meaningful discount to Medibank Private ((MPL)) but both are very favourably positioned. There is considerable discretion on how much the companies will pass back from claim savings to customers.

The broker considers it possible that the majority of windfall benefits will be returned while retaining meaningful support for current and future profits. Accumulate rating maintained. Target rises to $5.82 from $4.64.

Target price is $5.82 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.9
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

The company experienced a sharp slowing in claims over April yet the easing of elective surgery and mobility restrictions are likely to mean lower savings outcomes compared with initial scenarios envisaged by UBS.

Ongoing international travel restrictions could extend the profit impact on the company's inbound health insurance and travel insurance businesses well into FY21. Hence, along with the limited valuation appeal, UBS retains a Neutral rating and $5.10 target.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.18
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

First quarter production was in line with Macquarie's estimates although costs were slightly ahead. Some progress has been made at Didipio although the impact of the pandemic remains a key uncertainty.

Resumption of full operations in New Zealand is another positive. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $2.70 target.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.02
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OGC as Buy (1) -

Gold production in the March quarter was ahead of UBS estimates while costs were also higher than expected. Guidance for 2020 is maintained at 360-380,000 ounces.

The most material catalyst, in the broker's view, would be the re-start of Didipio as this could contribute more than US$100m per annum in earnings at spot prices. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $4.05 from $3.75.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $1.37
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett, in initial response to the release of interim results, observes Orica did not meet expectations, missing both with its profits (by -4.%-plus) and with the declared dividend (-25%).

The analysts find management's Burrup guidance "weak" with increased capex accompanied by limited commentary on expected 2H20 utilisation and tons/volume.

Many more questions remain on the analysts' mind.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: $1.54
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.09, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

The broker expects a major contraction in copper demand and, while acknowledging those with a more bullish outlook on copper might favour the stock because of a superior quality portfolio, considers OZ Minerals expensive.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.70 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.02, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PPE as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

People Infrastructure is raising $17.6m at $1.10 to strengthen the balance sheet in the crisis but also to provide for acquisition opportunities which are expected to emerge as a result. Morgans has slashed earnings per share and dividend forecast on dilution.

Target falls to $2.66 from $3.82. But given this still suggests 50% upside, the broker upgrades to Add from Hold.

Target price is $2.66 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.48
If PPE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPH as Outperform (1) -

FY21 guidance has surprised to the upside. Management has assumed a modest slowdown in US donations of -5-10% and assesses some of the digitisation gains may ease as states re-open and gatherings are again allowed.

However, Macquarie suspects the momentum in digital products may prove the company's assumptions conservative. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to NZ$6.42 from NZ$4.61.

Current Price is $6.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS notes the share price has risen 21% on the back of the FY20 result. The broker considers the current valuation fairly reflects improved demand but believes it is too early to forecast higher terminal penetration or higher revenue synergies from the CCB cross selling.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target rises to NZ$5.75 from NZ$5.25.

Current Price is $6.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating for Rio Tinto, concerned that if iron ore falls over there is little in the portfolio to prevent further downside risk. Target is reduced to $82 from $89.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $83.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $96.37, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates commodity price forecasts. The largest change is the drop in coal prices. The broker also factors in a bounce in the Australian dollar

Overall, the broker is concerned about the multi-year impact on demand from the pandemic-induced recession.

A preference is retained for quality and those with low gearing and leverage to potential stimulus from China.

Accumulate rating. Target reduced to $99 from $102.

Target price is $99.00 Current Price is $83.00 Difference: $16
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $96.37, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

As it relates to South32, the broker assesses aluminium, alumina, nickel and zinc are all under pressure and this drives material downgrades to earnings estimates.

However, there is enough potential upside for an Outperform rating although the catalysts are difficult to identify. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.65
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Downgrade to Reduce from Add (5) -

Seek's 20% share price appreciation over the last month seems hard to fathom, Morgans suggests, as it has occurred against a backdrop of continuing declines in job ad volumes.

The broker is more bearish, erring on the side of caution given it seems obvious, to Morgans, there will no be a V-shaped recovery in ad volumes.

To that end, the broker retains a $15.55 target and double-downgrades to Reduce from Add.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $17.44 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.76, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

Credit Suisse considers Sandfire Resources cheap but this is underpinned by modelling assumptions for the two principal growth projects.

Updated studies for both Black Butte and T3 in Botswana later in the year are expected to better define parameters and provide more confidence in estimates. Outperform rating and $5.70 target retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $1.49
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates estimates to allow for lower bond rates, the draft VPN application and the recent approval of the QNI upgrade.

The company, at the Macquarie Conference, has also reiterated its dividend guidance of 13.5c per security for 2020.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $2.27 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.25
If SKI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the recent business update signalled a step change in underlying merchant sales which have annualised over $1.08bn in April. Active customers have also risen to over 1.25m.

These changes are the result of increases in usage per customer and heightened demand from new active customers. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.10 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.85
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VUK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the Virgin Money UK balance sheet is more defensive than its peers. However, the broker acknowledges proof is required of when the company can deliver lower impairment charges, which will take time.

The performance of the unsecured portfolio represents the biggest downside risk. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.25. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.71
If VUK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes the company's presentation highlights the dilemmas regarding Target and the industrials portfolio.

The broker suspects most institutional investors are holding the stock primarily for an exposure to Bunnings and, while the company has the funding base, many would consider an acquisition a near-term negative.

The options for Target appear narrow as the -$2bn cost of closing the chain does not stack up financially. It would also risk creating a competitor for Kmart because a new owner would position Target more competitively.

Meanwhile, the problems in the industrial portfolio are somewhat opaque, but Credit Suisse assesses there is considerable upside in the business. Neutral rating and $34.65 target maintained.

Target price is $34.65 Current Price is $37.60 Difference: minus $2.95 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.48, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -

Wesfarmers expects the limited disruption to trade sector business and the continued expansion of ranges into lifestyle categories will underpin its core businesses as restrictions ease.

Value propositions at Catch and Kmart are expected to benefit from consumers being attracted to deep discounts. The company has indicated it will remain conservative about acquisitions. Target is $40.90. Outperform retained.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $37.60 Difference: $3.3
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.48, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse suspects a V-shaped recovery is unlikely without a 2009-type stimulus from China to underpin commodity markets. Base metal forecasts have been reduced out to 2022.

Credit Suisse has a more positive outlook for nickel compare with other base metals. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.25 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.12
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources