Australian Broker Call
February 13, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 02:51 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BLA - | BLUE SKY ALT INV | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| HGG - | HENDERSON GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
Just about everything in AGL's interim report was above expectations and UBS analysts point at much higher electricity prices. They note guidance for the FY looks increasingly conservative.
The share buy back is continuing and short term, the analysts admit, everything is looking rosy and shiny. Longer term issues, however, are not disappearing. Potential changes to rules governing the National Electricity Market are seen as a key risk.
Neutral rating retained. Target jumps to $25 from $19.80 on higher forecasts with UBS anticipating three years of high electricity prices.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.75 Difference: $0.25
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.39, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -
AMP's FY16 results were below the broker's expectations, mainly due to write downs in contemporary wealth protection. The company has announced a $500m on market buy-back for capital management.
FY17 and FY18 earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 1% to 3%, with the buy-back offsetting slight earnings downgrades in wealth management. Target raised to $5.86 from $5.73 and Add rating retained.
Target price is $5.86 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.62
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.90 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.90 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BLA as Add (1) -
First half net profit was up 130% and Morgans believes the company is poised for continued strong growth in assets under management into FY18.
While still relatively immature, the broker believes the group is delivering on its ambitious targets. Add retained. Target falls to $8.50 from $8.75.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $1.05
If BLA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BLA as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
First net profit was supported by an uptick in the contribution from the New York-based Cove and higher investments income. Ord Minnett notes the institutional investor base continues to expand.
After upgrading growth expectations and factoring in a lower revenue margin, option issue and higher costs, the broker's forecasts for earnings per share are downgraded -6% and -7% for FY17 and FY18 respectively.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $7.87 from $7.60.
Target price is $7.87 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.42
If BLA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 36.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.70 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BXB as Underperform (5) -
The US pallet business is under pressure from weakening consumer staples sales, de-stocking and higher competition, Credit Suisse observes.
The broker expects the market to be disappointed by guidance at the first half result and suggests there is a risk of a write-down of the US pallet pool. Underperform retained. Target falls to $9.00 from $9.80.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.55, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 38.68 cents and EPS of 49.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.64 cents and EPS of 54.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.0, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates HGG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
2016 results beat Credit Suisse forecasts. The short-term operating outlook is expected to remain challenging for longer than previously expected.
The broker continues to envisage value in the merger and medium-term story but finds further negative catalysts on the horizon for the short term.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $3.80 from $4.30.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.19
If HGG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.92 cents and EPS of 28.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.66 cents and EPS of 30.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates HIG as Add (1) -
Morgans, having resumed coverage of Highlands Pacific with an Add rating and 20c target in late June last year, has now updated its modeling for the latest inputs and prices forecasts.
While the broker's valuation has risen to 45c (was 39c), the price target has moved to 22c from 20c prior. Add rating retained.
Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.147
If HIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 201% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
Magellan's retail inflows slowed in the first half but Morgan Stanley is expecting a modest recovery, while institutional flows bounced back. Magellan pays out 75-80% of earnings to dividends but given peers pay 85-90% and Magellan's balance sheet has been strengthened, the broker expects a stronger dividend.
Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight. The broker might be more positive but for pressure on retail fees and Magellan's limited product mix compared to peers. Target rises to $25.00 from $21.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.73 Difference: $0.27
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.59, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.50 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.5, implying annual growth of -8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.3, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MPL as Outperform (1) -
Approval from the government has been received for an increase in premiums by an average of 4.6%. Macquarie had expected an increase of 4.25%.
The increase supports the broker's premium growth forecast of 2.1% in FY17 and 2.7% in FY18. Outperform and $2.85 target retained.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.03
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
The Minister for Health has approved a 4.60% average premium increase from April 1 onwards. This marks the lowest industry premium increase in a decade, point out UBS analysts.
It is their view increases at nearly three times CPI will do little to alleviate widely publicised affordability challenges, hence why policyholder leakage issues are likely to continue. Neutral rating retained. Target $2.75 (unchanged).
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NWS as Neutral (3) -
Citi observes the company has benefited hugely from its expansion into digital real estate. This is now the largest contributor to profit for the business. Foxtel and Fox Sports continue to be weak.
The broker considers the stock to be fairly valued at the current price and maintains a view that investors seeking exposure to digital real estate should buy REA Group ((REA)) directly. Neutral retained. Target rises to $17.70 from $17.30.
Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: $0.34
If NWS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 56.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 46.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.03 cents and EPS of 72.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NWS as Neutral (3) -
News Corp's second quarter results were better than expected, driven by improvement in the book publishing business. The REA Group ((REA)) stake remains the primary earnings driver despite weaker listings growth, and the Move stake was again relatively weak.
FY17 forecasts have been raised by 1% to reflect higher earnings from the publishing sector. Target raised to $17 from $16.50 and Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.03 cents and EPS of 55.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 46.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.37 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NWS as Buy (1) -
Second quarter results were ahead of Deutsche Bank's forecasts at the operational earnings level. Corporate costs showed a meaningful decline.
An improvement in the churn rate and the success of Foxtel Play are essential to turnaround the Foxtel business, in the broker's opinion.
Buy rating and $23.50 target retained.
Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: $6.14
If NWS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.35 cents and EPS of 68.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 46.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.39 cents and EPS of 71.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -
Second-quarter earnings per share were slightly better than expected. The quarter was better on paper but Macquarie notes the challenges remain in advertising revenue and the structural decline in newspapers.
Digital real estate remains the key driver. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $20.40 from $20.77.
Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $17.36 Difference: $3.04
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.52, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 57.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 46.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 80.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
OZ Minerals' share price has risen 130% in 12 months, compared to 55% for the ASX200 resources index. Copper price strength, and expectation for more strength, as well as updated mine plans for Prominent Hill and Carrapateena have driven the move, Morgan Stanley concludes.
The broker has revised forecasts to account for these factors but cannot arrive at a valuation to match market enthusiasm. Downgrade to Underweight. Target rises to $8.50 from $5.80. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.88 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.58, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of -11.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.5, implying annual growth of 33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -
First half operational earnings were slightly below Citi's estimates. The broker expects continued yield growth in premium depth listings, which would maintain mid-teens revenue growth in Australia, even while volumes continue to fall.
While property markets are subdued at present, the broker envisages significant earnings upgrades if the market recovers. Buy retained. Target rises to $62.00 from $59.95.
Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $7.76
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 82.80 cents and EPS of 183.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 110.10 cents and EPS of 244.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates REA as Outperform (1) -
First half results were in line with the broker's forecasts. Although the core Australian business was strong and ahead of forecast, Asia performed poorly in a difficult property market. FY17 profit forecast has been lowered by -3.6% to $241.4m.
Target reduced to $60 from $61 and Outperform rating maintained.
Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $5.76
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 183.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates REA as Hold (3) -
First half operational earnings were line with Deutsche Bank. The broker has made limited changes to full year forecasts and expects the level of growth to pick up in the second half on more favourable volumes and lower growth in marketing costs.
Hold retained. Target rises to $51.00 from $50.50.
Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: minus $3.24 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 214.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates REA as Outperform (1) -
First half results impressed Macquarie. Australian revenues were up 11.8%. The disappointment came from,Asia, because of the tough macro backdrop, strong competitive activity and ongoing investment in the business.
The broker expects momentum to pick up in the second half based on a stabilisation of listing volumes and easing of cost growth. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $60 from $56.
Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $5.76
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.20 cents and EPS of 178.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 111.70 cents and EPS of 223.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -
A change in accounting treatment made for a messy comparative result, but the broker's first take is that REA's earnings came in slightly below expectation. Australian numbers were in line but Asian numbers were poor, which might bring into question the capital spent on acquiring iProperty.
As usual, no guidance was provided. The key factor for earnings going forward will be Syd/Melb listings, the broker suggests, which have begun the year well, but January is typically a quiet month. Overweight and $65 target retained.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $10.76
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 100.20 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.10 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -
Morgans upgrades earnings forecasts as the first half result was stronger than expected. Relative strength in depth listing volumes was the positive surprise.
Weakness continued in developer advertising, as the market for large apartment block launches has cooled. Almost all of the broker's valuation stems from the Australian business.
Should Asia and the US deliver substantial growth over time the current valuation would be conservative but Morgans believes it too early to make a judgment call on that.
Add rating retained. Target lifts to $60.73 from $59.37.
Target price is $60.73 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $6.49
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 176.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -
UBS analysts found domestically REA's interim report was strong, in particular against the background of weak real estate listings. But the performance in Asia disappointed.
It was all a bit messy because the European assets had been stripped away, the analysts comment. Bottom line: estimates have been reduced and UBS finds the outlook "opaque".
Buy rating retained, but UBS suggests the forthcoming recovery might be more of an FY18 story. Price target remains $56.
Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $54.24 Difference: $1.76
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 216.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.6, implying annual growth of 23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SFH as Buy (1) -
The company has received what appears a friendly offer of 70c per share. Citi analysts think the offer has a 90% chance for being successful.
The analysts were already anticipating margin recovery and as such they believe the offer is well-timed. Buy. Target 70c (there before the offer).
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.07
If SFH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 76.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SUN as Buy (1) -
Suncorp's first half results were broadly in line with the broker's expectations. These were the first results under its new operating structure and, according to Deutsche Bank, show the benefits of its strong general insurance business and discipline around growth in its banking operations.
The stock remains Deutsche Bank's top pick in the general insurance sector. Buy rating and $14 target retained.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.52 Difference: $0.48
If SUN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.7, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.8, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie expects the Diageo acquisition will continue to influence growth in FY17, while also complicating forecasts when combined with regional reclassification.
First half is expected to be an investment period. The broker forecasts Australasian sales growth of 2.0%. Asian sales growth is expected to be 19.5% and in the Americas, 23.7%.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $10.11 from $10.07.
Target price is $10.11 Current Price is $11.33 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 59.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $24.75 |
| AMP - | AMP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.24 |
| BLA - | BLUE SKY ALT INV | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.45 |
| Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.45 | ||
| BXB - | BRAMBLES | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.52 |
| HGG - | HENDERSON GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.61 |
| HIG - | HIGHLANDS PACIFIC | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.07 |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.73 |
| MPL - | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.82 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.82 | ||
| NWS - | NEWS CORP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $17.36 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $17.36 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $17.36 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.36 | ||
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.88 |
| REA - | REA GROUP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $54.24 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $54.24 | ||
| SFH - | SPECIALTY FASHION | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.63 |
| SUN - | SUNCORP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $13.52 |
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.33 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 15 |
| 3. Hold | 8 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Wednesday 15 February 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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