Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of June quarter results, Macquarie updated iron ore production and shipment forecasts for bulk miners based on its analysis of port data. 

The broker expects BHP Group to deliver a strong production outcome, with iron ore production forecast 3% above consensus and metallurgical coal 2% above. Total copper output estimate is -3% below consensus and thermal coal is -1% lower.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1%.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.03 Difference: $1.97
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.20, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi revises its forecasts for Breville Group following clarity on US tariff policy changes affecting key sourcing countries.

The broker now assumes effective tariff rates of 40% on Chinese goods, 32% on Indonesian goods, 36% on Cambodian goods, and 20% on Vietnamese goods. No tariff is assumed on Mexican production due to the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement.

The analysts also assume Indonesia becomes Breville’s largest production base for US-bound goods, followed by Mexico and Cambodia.

While Citi believes management will mitigate most gross margin pressure through pricing, promotion management, stock rationalisation, and supplier renegotiation, near-term uncertainty persists.

The broker's FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts are lowered by -12%, purely reflecting weaker margins, with FY26 earnings (EBIT) forecast at $203.6m, flat on FY25.

The broker cuts its valuation premium to peers by -20 percentage points and lowers its target price to $32.10 from $38.30. Citi retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $32.10 Current Price is $29.85 Difference: $2.25
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.61, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie expects limited earnings risk in the upcoming bank reporting season, but medium-term earnings risks remain tilted to the downside, as falling interest rates are likely to weigh on bank performance.

The broker's current forecasts assume -125bps of interest rate cuts.

Macquarie notes the uncertain interest rate outlook will be a key determinant of FY26–27 forecast earnings.

For CommBank, the $105 target price and Underperform rating are kept.

Macquarie's forecasts imply a minor upside risk versus consensus for CommBank and Westpac ((WBC)) in 2H25, but a downside risk to all banks in FY26/FY27.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $178.90 Difference: minus $73.9 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.25, suggesting downside of -39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Morgans lowers EPS forecasts for CSL by -4.1% for FY25–FY27 on the back of reduced sales and margin assumptions for Seqirus and Vifor, with the broker's FY25 net profit after tax estimate at US$3.24bn; still within the company's guidance range.

The analyst acknowledges the negative sentiment across global healthcare stocks, with numerous US-based headwinds from potential tariffs, the risk of drug-pricing reform, and vaccine policy changes from Health Secretary R.F. Kennedy Jr, but states CSL is trading well below fair value.

In the last decade, the shares have traded on average EV/EBIT of 24.7 times, within a range of 17 to 35 times. Currently, the stock is valued at 18.2 times.

The target price is lowered to $303 from $329.26. Buy rated. CSL is due to report FY25 earnings on August 19. Morgans continues to anticipate double-digit earnings growth for the company over the medium term.

Target price is $303.00 Current Price is $243.71 Difference: $59.29
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.04, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

Environmental Group secured a $1.9m order to design and construct a PFAS treatment plant which will be the first major commercial deployment of its proprietary PFAS technology. Completion is expected by the end of 2025.

The highlight for Bell Potter was the order came from a different type of customer than what it anticipated for this technology, which could mean more opportunities for the company.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 4% and by 1% for FY27.

Buy. Target rises to 40c from 38c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.13
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of June quarter results, Macquarie updated iron ore production and shipment forecasts for bulk miners based on its analysis of port data. 

The broker expects Fortescue to beat consensus on iron ore production by 10% and expects realised pricing of US$82/t vs consensus of US$82.2/t.

The analyst expects a decline in unit cost due to fixed cost dilution, forecasting US$16/t, down -9% q/q. Net debt is seen at US$1.4bn, down -40% q/q.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1%. Neutral. Target unchanged at $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $16.20 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.58, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners reported June quarter FUM of US$172.4bn, which was basically in line with UBS' estimate and represented growth of 2.3%, due to net inflow growth of 0.4% and robust equity markets which contributed 4.5%.

The fund manager’s underperformance, with negative alpha generation over the quarter of -2.5%, combined with a reduction in net inflows to US$0.7bn from US$0.9bn—compared to the monthly average for 2025 year-to-date at circa US$1.5bn—could be a "headwind" to future flows.

UBS continues to view the stock's valuation as appealing, and potential for index inclusion at S&P's 3Q25 rebalance should assist the share price.

Target tweaked lower to $2.75 from $2.85, with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.54
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Jumbo Interactive to $11.30 from $14.60 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy due to downside risk to lottery turnover.

In particular, the analyst is concerned by a weaker like-for-like Powerball performance and limited impact expected from upcoming game changes.

The broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -7% in FY25, -4% in FY26, and -6% in FY27, placing estimates between -5% to -7% below consensus across the forecast period.

Jumbo’s market share dipped to 11.7% in 2H25 but Citi expects a rebound in FY26, assuming a normalised jackpot cycle and higher marketing spend.

Despite near-term pressure, Citi suggests market share concerns may be overplayed and notes current valuation at a -12% discount to the Small Ordinaries Index. 

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.45 Difference: $0.85
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.78, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LIC as Hold (3) -

Lifestyle Communities received an unfavourable judgment from the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal regarding the use of the deferred management fee (DMF) structure.

The company plans to appeal, but Bell Potter notes this would take up to 12 months or more and will weigh on the stock. The trading update for FY25 results was largely as expected, the broker notes.

Underlying EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -1.8% and by -17.3% for FY26, with a larger -38.4% cut to the FY27 forecast.

The cuts reflect lower settlement profile forecast, a reduction in home price revenue growth forecast due to discounting and DMF based on purchase rather than sale price.

Target lowered to $5.00 from $8.55 on earnings revisions, valuation roll forward and -$250m DMF write-off. Hold retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.58
If LIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Lifestyle Communities to Neutral, High Risk from Buy on the back of the VCAT decision and lowers the target to $4.50.

The analyst highlights management intends to continue to charge deferred management fees until a VCAT order is received but removes all anticipated fees from earnings forecasts and the stock's valuation.

In 1H2025, sales have reached 98 and the LVR covenant at 65% is unlikely to be broken according to Citi, but the interest cover ratio is at risk due to uncertainty around ongoing sales at this stage.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.08
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Lifestyle Communities to $5.35 from $9.83 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate after an unfavourable Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) ruling.

The company’s deferred management fees (DMFs) under its residential services agreements were deemed unenforceable.

The broker now anticipates write-downs of the DMF book value, reimbursement obligations, and margin compression in development earnings.

The broker's assumptions include a -$250m DMF write-off, -$600m cash flow reduction over ten years, and -$50m in resident fee refunds.

The company will likely remain covenant-compliant without requiring new capital, suggests Ord Minnett.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.93
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley remains constructive on Lovisa Holdings heading into FY25 results, highlighting stronger-than-expected corporate store growth, which ended at 992 versus consensus of 964-969.

Store rollout accelerated in 2H25 with 88 net additions, explain the analysts, making it the strongest half-year in recent memory, and pointing to solid momentum into FY26.

The broker sees two strategic catalysts in the pipeline: early feedback on the new Jewells concept launched in the UK, and potential expansion optionality in China following the opening of a second store in a more premium location.

Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $35 from $31.50 on a valuation roll forward and retains an Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.46 Difference: $3.54
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.32, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of June quarter results, Macquarie updated iron ore production and shipment forecasts for bulk miners based on its analysis of port data. 

The broker expects Mineral Resources' iron ore production to beat consensus by 4% and spodumene to be in line. 

The analyst adjusted D&A assumptions as Onslow ramps up, resulting in sharp cuts to FY25-26 EPS forecasts.

EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -57% and by -15% for FY26. Neutral. Target unchanged at $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $24.61 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.07, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights the potential for Metals X to increase its stake in the Renison tin operation to 61% from 50% for just -$27m, should its offer to acquire up to 28% of joint venture partner Greentech be fully accepted.

The broker notes this highly accretive transaction would lift its net asset value (NAV) estimate by 11.3% to 86cps. The analysts value Greentech’s 82% stake in Renison at a steep -75% discount to its own read-through valuation.

Greentech, suspended from trading since September 2024 due to financial misconduct allegations, has received board and independent adviser support for the offer.

Ord Minnett believes a successful partial offer could pave the way for a full Greentech takeover.

The broker retains a Buy rating and 12-month target price of 80c for Metals X.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.18
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Medibank Private to deliver a solid FY25 result, with potential upside risk to consensus earnings due to stronger-than-expected investment income and solid policyholder growth.

The broker forecasts 1.6% resident policyholder growth in FY25, supported by strong fourth-quarter seasonality and acceleration in non-resident volumes, which should contribute positively to second-half earnings (EBITDA).

Claims inflation remains benign and in line with guidance at between 2.4%-2.6%, while extras claims and risk equalisation remain soft due to favourable age patterns, observe the analysts.

Medibank Health continues to grow steadily, points out the broker, though capital deployment has been limited to date, with further investment anticipated in FY26 as pipeline opportunities emerge.

Citi raises its target price to $5.05 from $5.00 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $0.01
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes nib Holdings is tracking toward the lower end of FY25 group earnings guidance, supported by solid Australian Residents Health Insurance (ARHI) growth. The analysts maintain a cautious stance given uncertainties beyond FY25.

The broker sees claims inflation stabilising, though remains concerned about the elevated inflation and ongoing losses in the NZ business, which could take time to reprice.

Citi expects margins in the International Inbound Health Insurance (IIHI) segment will trend toward 10-15% longer term, below pre-covid levels. Recent management commentary suggests the travel insurance unit may be sold rather than partnered.

Citi believes the company's ambition to simplify the business could lead to a review of non-core assets like Thrive, although strategic value remains in its private health insurance-aligned capabilities.

Citi lifts its target price to $6.95 from $6.90 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

At first take, Citi highlights Netwealth Group reported softer-than-expected net inflows for 4Q25 of $3.65bn, which was in line with a year earlier but sat below the broker's forecast by -6% and below consensus forecast by -17%.

Inflows advanced 18% on the previous year to $7.6bn but also sat below the broker's $8.1bn forecast, and outflows rose 18% on a year earlier but were down as a percentage of funds under administration compared to last year.

Cash balances were more robust than anticipated, averaging 6.1%, up from 5.8% in the previous quarter and above Citi's estimate.

Member accounts advanced by 13% to 162k, or a net rise of 6.5k on 4.3k in 3Q25. The broker expects slight earnings upgrades for consensus forecasts on better cash balance and record opening accounts.

Rated Neutral with a $33.65 target.

Target price is $33.65 Current Price is $35.12 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates POL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Polymetals Resources has entered the early stages of production at its Endeavor operation, with first concentrate produced in the June quarter and sales initiated in July.

The next key catalyst, according to Ord Minnett, is ramping up throughput to around 780ktpa in 2H 2025, which the broker anticipates by the December quarter, enabling first free cash flow in 1Q FY26.

The analysts estimate FY26 free cash flow of approximately $80m at spot prices and believe this should trigger a re-rating as the developer discount begins to unwind.

The broker's earnings estimates have been moderately reduced, factoring in a more conservative ramp-up profile and lower grades and recoveries in 1H26.

Exploration spending was lower than expected during the June quarter, but Ord Minnett expects this to accelerate in 2H FY26, once cash flow stabilises. The broker remains optimistic about nearby targets, such as the Southern Corridor.

Following recent equity raising and adjustments to production assumptions, the broker's target falls by -5% to $1.30. The Speculative Buy rating is maintained,.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.58
If POL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PTM as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter notes the renegotiated merger terms between Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital ((LSF)) advanced to a merger implementation deed and provided more details about cost synergies and some key figures for L1 Capital.

The terms are considered positive for the company, with combined business growth likely to rise to 2.5% from -9%.

The merged company expects to realise $20m of synergies, which together with Platinum's $10-15m, would be around 25-30% of the run rate costs of -$134m.

EPS forecast lifted by 1.2% for FY25, 16.2% for FY26 and 66.8% for FY27. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to 60c from 49c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.1
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital have entered into a merger implementation deed with binding terms for ownership of 26%/74% of the merged entity, respectively.

The announcement's details suggest to the broker that the merger will result in 30% EPS accretion to current consensus estimates.

The analyst's forecasts for EPS are lowered by -38% for FY25 and raised 18% for FY26 on June FUM being down -2.5% against estimate and higher turnaround costs of $40m, alongside increased cost-out targets in FY26 of $10m–$15m, up from $5m previously.

Target price is raised to 53c from 47c, with Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.03
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes PYC Therapeutics has made good progress across its pipeline of four drug candidates, with three of them making strong progress through the trial phases.

The broker expects the next 12 months to be busy and full of updates as the company actively recruits the first-ever phase 2/3 registrational trial in RP11 patients.

The multi-dose safety/efficacy data from the phase 1/2 trials of the two other clinical-stage assets in ADOA and PKD are also expected.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.85
If PYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi expects QBE Insurance to deliver a strong first-half result for FY25, supported by foreign exchange tailwinds and robust investment returns.

The broker sees QBE tracking well to meet its FY25 group combined operating ratio (COR) guidance of circa 92.5%, with any 1H catastrophe (CAT) overrun expected to be minor.

Citi notes the 1H crop COR is likely to be booked at 95% despite potential crop damage from Texas floods, as more risk has been transferred to the government pool.

The broker lifts its EPS forecasts across FY25 to FY27 by 2%, raises its target price to $26.10 from $23.30, and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $3.42
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of June quarter results, Macquarie updated iron ore production and shipment forecasts for bulk miners based on its analysis of port data. 

The broker expects Rio Tinto's iron ore and bauxite production to miss the consensus by -3%, and copper by -2%.

Iron ore shipments are expected to rise 13% q/q due to the weaker March quarter, while bauxite is expected to be -5% lower but the FY25 forecast is within the 57-59mt guidance range.

Minor change to forecasts. Neutral. Target unchanged at $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $107.59 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $114.25, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Reliance Worldwide’s primary exposure to copper tariffs stems from its brass production in Australia, which relies on copper sourced from wire and recycled cable priced off the London Metal Exchange, explains Citi.

The broker estimates the company uses 8–9kt of brass annually, and a US$100/t move in copper prices could impact earnings (EBITDA) by approximately -$1.1m, before any mitigation.

Price pass-through is typically delayed, explains the analyst, as Reliance waits for copper to stabilise before engaging in a six-month negotiation process with major retail partners.

Citi notes the impact may be reduced due to the lower brass content in newer product lines like Sharkbite Max.

A Neutral rating and $5.25 target price are maintained.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $1.1
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of June quarter results, Macquarie updated iron ore production and shipment forecasts for bulk miners based on its analysis of port data. 

The broker expects South32's copper production to miss the consensus by -3%, but alumina to beat by 3%, and aluminium and manganese to be in line.

Forecasts largely unchanged. Outperform with unchanged target price of $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.58
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes management at Temple & Webster has several advantages in building out Home Improvement compared to the initial build out of Homewares & Furniture.

The broker considers Home Improvement a long-term driver of growth, providing a valuation uplift, with a potential $150m earnings (EBITDA) contribution.

While investors acknowledge the strategic opportunity, they remain cautious on assigning value due to prior management initiatives (e.g. B2B, Build) and a perceived full valuation, suggest the analysts.

Short-term, stronger Home Improvement traction may see FY26 margins diluted as management reinvests in growth, but Morgan Stanley considers this accretive to long-term value.

The analysts also flag potential macro tailwinds from interest rate cuts, housing stimulus, and cost savings on unbranded Chinese imports. The Overweight rating and $28 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $21.41 Difference: $6.59
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.70, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes that Tuas continues to punch above its weight, with a 23% share of mobile downloads in Singapore despite holding only 11–13% subscriber market share.

A recent data restatement introduces uncertainty in interpreting subscriber trends, prompting the broker to rely more on download share as a market health proxy.

Despite data noise, download share remains stable, suggesting to the analyst Tuas faces no competitive headwinds from incumbents.

Morgan Stanley believes Tuas’ low-cost positioning, underpinned by efficient networks, lean opex, and effective customer acquisition, remains structurally sound.

The broker reiterates its Overweight rating and $7.00 target. Industry View. In-Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $1.54
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VGN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Virgin Australia with a Buy rating and a target price of $3.65, citing the airline’s ability to grow unit revenue faster than inflation.

The broker's valuation is aided by lower oil prices and a structurally reduced cost base following the company's administration.

Virgin’s aircraft fleet has an average age of 13 years, younger than Qantas Airways ((QAN)) at 16 years, highlights the analyst.

This is well below the typical 24-year life span, positioning the airline favourably for upcoming renewal and expansion, suggests the broker.

Gearing of 1.2 times sits at the low end of management's target range. This is seen as providing ample room for between -$800–900m of capital expenditure over FY26–FY28 to support 3% annual seat growth.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.54
If VGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources