Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

In an initial assessment Citi observes first half results from a2 Milk Co were ahead of expectations. Market share in the MBS channel grew to 3.5%.

On the negative side, the $2bn revenue target has been pushed out to FY27 or later because of declines in birth rates and the daigou channel. The broker is not surprised by this.

FY24 guidance has been upgraded to low-mid single digit revenue growth. Citi suspects this will trigger investors who have been underweight on the stock to re-visit. Buy rating and $ 4.81 target.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

ABACUS STORAGE KING has reaffirmed FY24 distribution guidance of 6c per security, in line with expectations. Citi notes gearing remains relatively prudent with management focused on organic growth, opportunistic acquisitions and development.

The broker expects higher finance costs will result as fixed interest loans roll off to variable rate loans, providing a headwind, also pointing out global investors are cautious regarding relative valuations of real estate companies with external management structures and this may result in a relative valuation gap to peers.

Buy rating maintained. Target is lifted to $1.40 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.165
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Following ABACUS STORAGE KING's first half result, Shaw and Partners has lifted its full year funds from operations expectations by 2.6%, reflecting a more active acquisition program than expected, alongside a robust outlook for occupancy and rent.

Rental income lifted 4% year-on-year in the first half, while earnings increased 2.4%, all in-line with the broker's expectations. Net lettable area grew 8.4%, and the company intends to increase this by over 20% in the short to medium-term.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.30 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.065
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX's December-half result was marked by faster than expected cost increases and weaker market balances as volatility fell, observes Citi.

Management retained FY24 cost-growth guidance, which suggests a -5% decline in the June half, estimates Citi, expecting the target will be met.

Management also expects FY25 costs will fall. ASX expects its restructuring program will yield the required changes, having already cut administration and regulatory cost in the December half while automating and simplifying processes.

The company plans to reduce its non-project workforce by 25 people, saivng $11m a year.

But Citi spies no relief on the volatility front and lower market caps of listed companies resulted in less listing fees. On the upside, derivatives have recovered faster than forecast as internationals return to the fray.

Management turns its focus to the company's capital structure announcing plans for a $200m to $300m corporate bond to support medium-term capital expenditure.

Neutral rating retained to reflect lingering uncertainty. Target price rises to $65.90 from $64.00.

Target price is $65.90 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: $0.78
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.18, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

First half revenue for ASX was driven by markets, up 10.4%. Guidance for operating expenditure and capital expenditure in FY24 is unchanged and the CHESS replacement partnership program will commence one stage II has begun, delaying the $70m pre-tax charge.

Macquarie assesses the stock provides relative stability against a difficult macro economic outlook although a lack of organic catalysts until FY25 guidance is provided at the investor briefing in June is a concern. Neutral rating and $63 target.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.18, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Profit for the ASX in the 1H missed the consensus forecast by around -6% on higher-than-expected costs, explains Morgans, despite 2.4% revenue growth on the previous corresponding period. 

An interim dividend of 101.2cps was declared, which was also a -6% miss against consensus, notes the analyst.

The broker believes the company's elevated expense profile will continue to weigh on the stock price in the near-term.

The target rises to $62.70 from $60.20 as the impact of an improving medium-term margin profile outweighs the near-term rise in operating expense, explains Morgans. Hold.

Target price is $62.70 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: minus $2.42 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.18, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett increases its target to $75.00 from $72.50 and maintains an Accumulate rating in the wake of the first half results. Commentary from ASX management has increased the broker's confidence in a return to historical operating margins, although the exact timeframe remains unclear.

Operating margins are expected to start recovering in FY26.

The broker also is increasingly confident in the ability to deliver on the CHESS replacement project, with the company estimating replacing its clearing system will be completed by 2026 and settlement and sub-register replacement taking until 2028 or 2029.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $65.12 Difference: $9.88
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.18, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

At a glance, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's December-half earnings outpaced consensus and Citi's forecasts by 1%-2% thanks to a sharp decline in bad and doubtful debts (more than half Citi's estimates), but extract this out and the underlying result was soft, observes the broker.

Core earnings missed forecasts by -2.5% and net interest margins fell 15 basis points in the September forecast before levelling out at 1.83% and underlying net interest margins appear softer than forecast, says Citi.

Guidance suggests both liabilities and assets could be under pressure, particularly assets, in line with the broader market.

Sell rating and $8.85 target price retained for now.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $9.89 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.15, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group has flagged -$5.7bn in post-tax impairments to its first half result, comprised of $2.5bn from WA Nickel and $3.2bn from Samarco. 

The announcement sees UBS lower its earnings per share forecasts between 1-2%, and the broker points out the announcement is unlikely to have a significant impact on first half dividends.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $44.00 from $46.00.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $45.61 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.63, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to BlueScope Steel's first half result, Citi notes the company delivered a beat to its expectations atthe earnings line, reporting earnings of $718m for the period. A dividend of 25 cents per share was in line with the broker.

Guidance for the second half is lower, down -15% year-on-year, a result of lower US spreads. The ramp up of the North Star expansion continues, and is expected to reach full run rate in the first half of FY25.

The Neutral rating and target price of $22.50 are retained. 

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $22.85 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.60, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COF as Hold (3) -

Centuria Office REIT's December-half result met both consensus and Bell Potter's forecasts, announcing FFOps of 7c. Management reiterated FY24 FFOps guidance of 13.8c and FY24dividend guidance of 12c.

The broker zooms in on the company's rise in gearing to 40.3%, well above the 25% to 35% target range and up from 38.4% at the end of FY23.

While management expects asset sales will reign in gearing, the broker also expects valuations are likely to slide over the next year.

Hold rating and $1.30 target price retained despite the company screening as undervalued, to reflect a stand-off between sellers and buyers.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.05
If COF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Centuria Office REIT's 1H reported funds from operations (FFO) were in line with the consensus forecast, but Morgan Stanley keeps an Underweight rating on concerns around a high level of gearing relative to peers.

Management retained FY24 guidance for FFO of 13.8cpu and a dividend of 12cpu.

Occupancy slipped to 96.2% from 97.1%, with Docklands remaining the key challenge in the portfolio, according to the analysts, with 3.3ksqm vacant and another 7.7ksqm expiring within six months.

The broker's $1.26 target is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.01
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Sell (5) -

In an initial response to Cochlear's first half result, Citi has noted it looks for more detail on a reported 14% growth in implants. The company has pre-announced a net profit of $192m and revenue of $1,113m. 

The company is guiding to full year net profits of $385-400m, reflecting 26-31% growth year-on-year.

The Sell rating and target price of $255.00 are retained.

Target price is $255.00 Current Price is $334.54 Difference: minus $79.54 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $245.92, suggesting downside of -25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi observes first half results benefited from inflation-linked rental growth and operating earnings per unit of 13.52c were broadly in line.

The broker assesses Charter Hall Retail REIT is continuing to deliver positive leasing spreads with same-property NPI growth 3.7%. Buy rating and $4 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.18
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT posted a first half that was in line with Macquarie's expectations. FY24 guidance of 27.4c per security has been reaffirmed.

Despite acquisitions and divestments over the first half that were completed at yields of around 6%, the broker assesses the quality of the portfolio has improved and the focus is on assets with greater income growth potential.

Capital recycling is still expected to be the main focus, as Macquarie estimates there is still $100m in deployment capacity before reaching the mid point of the target gearing range. Neutral retained. Target edges up to $3.61.

Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Charter Hall Retail REIT owns the only Retail portfolio this reporting season (so far) in which occupancy costs improved. 

Specialty occupancy costs were 11.3%, down -0.1% and leasing spreads were positive at 1.2%.

EPS of 13.52cpu was in line with the broker's forecast, and management reiterated FY24 guidance of 27.4cpu.

Target $3.55. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Accumulate (2) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT's first half results were slightly below Ord Minnett's expectations, which implies a stronger skew to the second half. Management has indicated this skew will be determined by convenience retail net leases that had rent reviews in December.

While the result was generally positive, the broker does note specialty leasing spreads have moderated to 1.2% yet believes the business can capitalise on mis-priced opportunities in the property sector as long as it stays disciplined. Accumulate rating. Target rises to $3.66 from $3.62

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CU6 as No Rating (-1) -

Management at Clarity Pharmaceuticals will now push for a Phase 3 trial -for detection of prostrate cancer lesions in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR)- after initial positive findings from the Phase1/2 diagnostic trial, explains Morgans.

The trial results showed the treatment was broadly safe, observes the analyst, and show potential to detect earlier stage disease.

Clarity is within Morgans 'Keeping Stock' research designation, whereby no forecasts, target or rating are assigned.

Current Price is $2.53. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

First half results from Cleanaway Waste Management were ahead of estimates. Macquarie was pleased with the lift in the operating performance and the increased emphasis on EBIT measurement.

Challenging areas are being turned around and health services are profitable again while labour availability is better. The company has reiterated expectations for around $350m in EBIT in FY24. Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $3.10 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.42
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's 1H earnings (EBITDA) fell short of forecasts by consensus and Morgan Stanley by -2% and -1%, respectively.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance and stated the ambition for FY26 earnings (EBIT) of greater than $450m remains on track.

The interim unfranked dividend of 2.45cps matched the previous corresponding period, but compared to the consensus estimate of 2.6cps. Franking is set to resume in the 2H.

Target $2.88. Overweight. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.88 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.2
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Hold (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's 1H result met Morgans expectations, though EPS and operating cash flow (OCF) disappointed. An unchanged 2.45cps dividend (unfranked) was declared.

A higher effective tax rate and net finance costs weighed on the EPS metric, explains the analyst, while OCF suffered from a ramp-up of spending on landfill remediation and rectification (R&R) and weaker working capital.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target rises to $2.54 from $2.40 due to 4cps-worth of earnings upgrades and 10cps due to a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Lighten (4) -

Cleanaway Waste Management grew first half EBIT by 26% and met Ord Minnett's expectations.

The broker envisages the market will price in a more optimistic outlook amid accelerating revenue and margin expansion, yet EBITDA margins need to average around 150 basis points higher than current forecasts to justify the share price.

Hence, the stock screens overvalued and a Lighten rating is maintained. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Neutral (3) -

Despite a slight first half miss, Cleanaway Waste Management has maintained its full year guidance, including what UBS sees as conservative second half expectations.

Half-on-half improvement into the first half, says UBS, was driven by top line growth rather than margin improvement, but the broker expects this to change in the coming half, anticipating core business recovery and initiatives can drive an earnings beat.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.02
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DDR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage of IT distributor Dicker Data with a Buy rating and $12.90 target price, observing the PC cycle appears to be bottoming.

The broker expects the company will be a major beneficiary of a recovery in the PC market, forecasting a 7% compound annual revenue growth rate between FY23 and FY27.

Citi considers Dicker Data to be well-positioned to benefit from long-term strucural tailwinds for ANZ ICT (following a survey of 120 businesses about their planned IT expenditure), forecasting a 9% four-year CAGR, above the market's forecast 8.5%.

EPS are forecast to post a 16% CAGR in the period. 

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $11.23 Difference: $1.67
If DDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Deterra Royalties' December-half result missed consensus' forecasts by -3% and Citi by -1%.

Revenue rose 23%, reflecting higher Mining Area C revenue arisig from higher realised prices. A -4% slump in sales offset this benefit.

Costs rose nearly 20% as business development expenses ticked up.

Neutral rating and $5 target price retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

First half results from Deterra Royalties were in line with expectations, underpinned by buoyant iron ore prices. Macquarie notes the timing of royalties and distributions was the main driver of any variance in cash flow and net cash estimates.

Iron ore prices and the ramp up of South Flank are the key catalysts going forward while any updates on acquiring or writing new royalties remain in focus for the market. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $4.80 target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Lower 1H operating cash flow (OCF) for Deterra Royalties resulted in free cash flow (FCF) of $85.2m, a miss against forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus for $94.3m and $88.6m, respectively. Profit was around -3% weaker than the consensus estimate.

The interim dividend of 14.9c was broadly in line with market expectations, notes the analyst.

The broker maintains its $5.65 target and Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.5
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Lighten (4) -

First half results from Deterra Royalties were generally in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. With the prices of many commodities down from recent highs and the cost of capital for many miners rising, the opportunities for the company to purchase additional royalties have increased.

Yet the absence of acquisitions also shows discipline from management, the broker acknowledges. Target is steady at $4.40 and a similar payout for FY24 at a fully franked yield of around 7% is anticipated. Lighten maintained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Higher costs saw Deterra Royalties report a first half result marginally below expectations, says UBS, with net profit of $79m. Costs lifted 18% year-on-year, a result of increased business development spend.

The company continues to target growth beyond its Mining Area C royalties, and this should be supported by a $500m undrawn credit facility, and the broker sees conditions for the company to acquire new royalties as improving. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $5.00 is retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Data#3's 1H profit (PBT) of $30.8m compared to management guidance for between $30-31m issued last month, observes Morgans. The operational result, which was cycling a strong previous corresponding period, was considered "solid”.

Year-on-year revenue, gross profit and EPS rose by 13%, 9% and 32%, respectively, while the 12.5c fully franked interim dividend was an increase of 25%.

First half profit benefited from “massive” interest income, note the analysts. Due to a miss-communication in the lead-up to results, investors were negatively surprised operating growth, excluding interest income, had slowed.

Shares fell by -20% post result, giving back gains prior to the result, notes the broker.

The Hold rating and $7.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -

EVT Ltd's interim result was short on Ord Minnett's expectations, with the EBITDA margin around -200 basis points lower than estimates amid higher operating costs.

The company also surprised in terms of guiding for a -30% lower second half box office, because of the writer's strike, and the broker questions why it bothered with this, given forecasting box office is always difficult.

The current share price weakness is considered a buying opportunity for patient investors and a Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $15.65 from $16.58.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $11.27 Difference: $4.38
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Goodman Group's 1H EPS beat the consensus forecast by 13%, with a standout performance by the development division, highlights Morgans. A greater proportion of these developments were undertaken on balance sheet (higher margin), explains the broker.

Management increased FY24 growth guidance to 11% from 9%, continuing an upgrade trend, notes the analyst.

Data centre projects now stand at 37% of work in progress, points out the broker, as the group continues to benefit from the structural demand drivers of the digital economy.

While Morgans raises its target to $29 from $24.50, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add on valuation grounds.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.61 Difference: $0.39
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Sell (5) -

Goodman Group delivered a first half result that was robust, with management guiding to operating EPS growth of 11% for FY24, ahead of the 9% guidance provided at the full year in August.

As a result, Ord Minnett increases its full-year estimates to $1.05 per security, amid heightened assumptions for rental growth.

Despite this the securities appear overvalued to the broker, with the market appearing more optimistic about industrial property and the opportunity in data centres compared with its assessment. Sell rating maintained. Target is $20.75.

Target price is $20.75 Current Price is $28.61 Difference: minus $7.86 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.11, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

At a glance, GPT Group's full-year funds from operations per share appear to have nosed out consensus' and Citi's forecasts, while its dividend fell just shy, thanks to strong retail and logistics leasing and a better-than-expect result in office occupancy.

Gearing remains in the lower half of the company's target range.

All up, Citi considers the result to be resilient.

Buy rating and $4.90 target price retained for now.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.35
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners delivered a 2023 result that was ahead of Macquarie's expectations in all P/L areas. Stronger management and performance fees were slightly offset by costs.

The broker makes few changes to forecasts and, given recent performance trends, anticipates upside in the short term for performance fees but, as these attract a lower multiple expectations overall are largely unchanged.

The target is raised to $2.40 from $2.25 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.2
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

The FY23 result for GQG Partners was both strong and in line, according to Morgans, with 2H earnings rising by 19.7% half-on-half. The investment performance was considered strong across all strategies supporting a strong FY24 start for flows.

The broker points out recent growth for funds under management (FUM) provides near-term earnings growth visibility. Currently, FUM is exceeding the average FY23 figure by around 30%.

The target rises to $2.45 from $2.05 after the analysts upgrade FY24/25 EPS forecasts by around 15%, and mark-to-market FUM for January/February movements. The Add rating is maintained on an attractive valuation.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.25
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners delivered a net operating income result of US$384.4m in 2023, up 16% and slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker welcomes the result, considering the investment market was volatile and the macro economic environment difficult.

Ord Minnett is confident in the flow outlook and expects this will drive a shareholder return of 26% over the next two years. The stock is considered inexpensive and a Buy rating is maintained with the target lifted to $2.60 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.4
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCL as Speculative Buy (1) -

HighCom has revised down December-half guidance, the company forecasting a loss between -$13 and -$15m due to: weak sales (management was unsuccessful security material ballistics contracts); lower margins (as the company moved to cut ballistics inventory); revenue delays; and a $4m-$6m inventory writedown.

Excluding the writedown, Bell Potter expects underlying earnings (EBITDA) of -$7.8m and a net loss of -$9m.

The broker says management's task now is to cut costs to match revenue.

The broker moves to Speculative Buy from Buy. Target price falls to 35c from 70c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.205
If HCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HDN as Hold (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's December-half result outpaced consensus' forecasts by 1.4% but missed Bell Potter's estimates by -1.7%. Management retained FY24 FFOps and dividend guidance.

The pipeline was unchanged during the half observes the broker and while Bell Potter doesn't rule out acquisitions, it expects incremental capital to be directed to the pipeline where yields are looking attractive.

The company reported solid portfolio metric, rents continuing to rise.

Hold rating and $1.30 target price retained, the broker spying better value elsewhere in the sector.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.03
If HDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered a first half result that was in line with Macquarie's forecast. Guidance for free funds from operations (FFO) of 8.6c per security was reaffirmed.

The broker assesses the health of the underlying tenant base is robust, allowing the business to achieve rental growth. Around $302m of LFR assets were divested in the year to date at a combined discount to book value of -1% and two neighbourhood assets were also acquired, anchored by Woolworths ((WOW)).

As gearing is at 34.3% there is further potential for capital recycling, the broker adds. Target is raised to $1.26 from $1.24 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Despite a strong 1H leasing performance by HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Morgan Stanley cautions around growing evidence of a broader slowdown in large format retail. HomeCo has been recycling out of large format and into neighbourhood retail.

The REIT's 1H funds from operations (FFO) of 4.3cpu was in line with the consensus forecast, and management retained FY24 guidance for FFO and a dividend of 8.6cpu and 8.3cpu, respectively.

Target $1.35. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.08
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -

In line with management guidance, like-for-like income for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT grew by 4% in the 1H. The active development pipeline should complete in the 2H, underpinning a valuation uplift, suggests Morgans.

The analyst believes the REIT's fundamentals remain solid. The re-weighting towards higher-growth Daily Needs assets versus Large Format Retail continues.

FY24 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of 8.6cpu and a dividend of 8.3cpu was unchanged.

The Add rating and $1.37 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.1
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett found the first half result from HomeCo Daily Needs REIT mixed. Rent collections, occupancy and leasing spreads were all strong yet recently acquired assets were on relatively tight yields.

The broker points out tenant MAT growth has slowed to 0.4%, with the company indicating this stems from deflation among tenants, highlighting that only 30-40% of tenants report sales data.

The company has indicated it is on track to complete around $80m in developments in FY24 and commence more than $120m. Hold rating maintained. Target dips to $1.18 from $1.19.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group's December-half result broadly met Citi's forecasts save for expenses and dividend, which proved a slight miss.

Margins stole Citi's attention, the broker observing the company is on track to hit the top end of margin guidance in the June half as inflation eases, premium rates rise and fixed-income yields remain elevated.

The broker considers the company's $200m buyback to be a superior distribution than an unfranked dividend supplement.

Gross written premiums also proved a slight disappointment, the broker suspecting the company may be losing market share in home and motor to Suncorp ((SUN)), as well as losing share in commercial professional risk and liability portfolio.

On the upside, management flagged its confidence in earning a more-than 100-point basis-point premium to the two-year bond yield.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $6.75 from $6.60.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.67
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

In the wake of the first half result, Insurance Australia Group appears well ahead of targets with an additional $200m in buybacks announced.

Macquarie asserts, with the strength of the premium rate cycle continuing to ease and the benefits of higher interest rates, an Outperform rating is appropriate. FY24 guidance for reported margins is unchanged.

The broker raises earnings estimates for FY24 by 5.3% and FY25 by 4.2%. Target is raised to $6.40 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.32
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Insurance Australia Group's 1H profit missed the consensus forecast by-7% on a higher combined operating ratio (COR) and a retentions drop, explains Morgan Stanley. 

The reported insurance margin of 13.7% compared to the 14% forecast by consensus due to lower investment income, explain the analysts. This margin recovered from 12.5% in FY23 and entered the FY24 guidance range of 13.5-15.5%.

Management left FY24 margin guidance unchanged, despite a reduction in the CAT budget, implying to the broker weaker trends elsewhere.

The target falls to $5.45 from $5.50. The broker's Equal-weight rating is maintained on a full valuation. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

While 1H headline numbers for Insurance Australia Group were a bit softer than Morgans expected, and profit missed the consensus forecast by around -7%, management reaffirmed FY24 guidance.

The 10cps interim dividend also missed the consensus forecast for 12cps. Management announced a further $200m buyback, following on from the buyback of 63m shares last December.

The broker's target falls to $6.17 from $6.32 on a greater interest expense forecast and a slightly softer estimate for underinsured motorists (UIM). The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $6.17 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.09
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

In the wake of the first half results, Insurance Australia Group's gross written premium (GWP) is tracking marginally ahead of expectations and as a result Ord Minnett lifts forecasts by 1%.

Management is passing on higher reinsurance costs and increased peril allowances, defending margins at the expense of market share, the broker observes.

While expecting modest near-term market share losses, Ord Minnett does not believe management will endure this over the long-term and therefore premium rate increases are likely to moderate. Hold maintained. Target is lifted 4% to $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

While headline results from Insurance Australia Group's first half missed consensus expectations, UBS feels the core result and operating momentum remain solid.

An underlying margin of 13.7% was ahead of the broker's forecast, and UBS expects this should step up over the second half. The company provided no BI provision, but a $200m on-market buyback was announced.

The Neutral rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

At a glance, Imdex's flat December-half revenue outpaced consensus and Citi forecasts, thanks to a strong performance from all regions save Australia-Pacific, suggesting resilience. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) also outpaced (excluding Devico and MAGHAMMER's one-offs).

Devico's revenue jumped 18% year on year and the transition from sales to recurring rentals was completed.

No formal guidance was issued (standard) but management did advise it expected demand to remain steady across all regions.

Buy rating and $3.30 target price retained, Citi suspecting the result could prove an inflection point for market sentiment.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.595
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ING as Buy (1) -

Inghams Group's December-half result fell shy of Bell Potter's forecasts due mainly to a higher than forecast tax rate.

Revenue and earnings (EBITDA) outpaced the broker's estimates.

Lease-adjusted operating cash flow moved to $74.8m in the black from -$9.8m in the red at June 30. Net debt rose to $478m from $394.7m, reflecting $82.2m of acquisition funding.

Management suspects earnings could ease in the June half (not formal guidance) due to seasonality as previously guided and observes a channel shift from eating out to eating in.

Buy rating retained, the broker's thesis that Inghams represents a derivative exposure to improved winter cropping prospects remaining intact. Target price falls to $4.35 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.57
If ING meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Inghams Group posted a first half result that was in line with guidance. Selling price growth of 8.5% more than offset the cost pressures, Macquarie notes. Moreover, efficiency programs that are set to come online should provide opportunity for margin expansion.

Management has signalled the recent installation of de-boning machines is ahead of schedule and under budget and the broker asserts the improvements could also reduce labour costs and drive productivity benefits.

Amid relatively stable top-line growth Macquarie envisages upside risks to margins in the medium term and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.20 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.42
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Add (1) -

Despite Inghams Group's strongest ever 1H result since listing, the market was disappointed by softer-than-expected volume growth in Australia, due to weakness in the 'out of home' channels, explains Morgans.

Overall, the 1H result was in line with management guidance and the broker leaves is earnings (EBITDA) forecasts unchanged, while slightly lowering profit estimates due to higher tax.

A fully franked interim dividend of 12cps was declared, compared to Morgans 11cps forecast. Operating cash flow was materially stronger than the analysts forecast, and an attractive dividend yield is highlighted.

The target slips to $4.40 from $4.45 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.62
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

Despite a strong first half from Inghams Group, including a 66% increase in earnings to $138m, the company's share price took a -12% tumble, which UBS explained as a result of a softerning of the volume outlook.

As per the broker, the significant earnings improvements was a result of a better operational performance, as well as successfully executed average selling price increases.

The company indicated a higher level of inventory was being held as of the end of 2023, due to a softerning of out-of-home channels, while will require rebalancing moving forward.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.10 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.32
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes IPH has reversed the trend of 2023, growing filing volumes in both December and January. The Australian market continued to stabilise and the company's market share has remained steady

 Initial filings are the main driver of Australasian earnings, representing 20-25% of revenue and have higher margins than renewal work.

The broker believes the interim result, published February 22, and outlook should benefit from the continued recovery in Australasia, Canada and Singapore. The lead indicator, US PCT filings, remains flat for FY24-25 activity.

Outperform rating and $10.60 target.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $3.65
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.56, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Incitec Pivot's strong performance in the Dyno business along with higher diammonium phosphate prices has not been sufficient to offset the weak outlook for Phosphate Hill, Macquarie points out, which has endured its third production downgrade in 12 months amid rain related supply chain issues and maintenance problems.

As a result, the broker lowers FY24 estimates for earnings per share by -7% and, with the Phosphate Hill DAP production guidance range reduced to 730-770,000t this is unhelpful as the sale process remains in train.

An announcement on a sale of the fertiliser business is considered a key catalyst as it would result in a net cash position for the company. Target is lowered to $2.90 from $3.00 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.24
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following last week's business update by Incitec Pivot, Morgan Stanley notes a positive FY24 start for the explosives business has been offset by more DAP production issues at Phosphate Hill.

While uncertainties are being resolved, the broker questions whether persistent manufacturing issues could impact a potential Fertilser sale.

The analyst's target falls to $3.00 from $3.10 on a lower FY24 group earnings (EBIT) forecast. Equal Weight. Morgan Stanley also incorporates the sale of WALA ,as well as the $500m capital return/special dividend, into forecasts. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

At a glance, Lendlease Group's December-half result proved a massive miss, core earnings falling -70% short of consensus forecasts and -67% below Citi's forecast, the company experiencing weakness across the business, particularly in the development segment.

Management cut guidance-12%, suggesting a -23% discount to consensus' EPS forecasts, reflecting lower shareholder's equity and return on equity.

Funds under management were steady. Gearing breached the company's 10% to 20% target range, hitting 22.9%.

Buy rating and $9.40 target price.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.51 Difference: $1.89
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 55.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

At first glance Citi notes the results from Orora appear positive. In the US earnings were modestly short of expectations yet still appear solid, with sales -10% lower than expected on volumes that declined -8%. Australia was in line.

Guidance has generally been maintained and, for Saverglass in particular, given the tough environment this is welcome news to the broker. Buy rating and $3.28 target.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.38
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy's first half results were above expectations, with EBITDA 19% ahead of Macquarie's forecast. FY24 guidance for energy markets has been increased 6-14% and the dividend raised by 72%.

The broker observes the business has returned to producing income and therefore can afford a materially higher payout ratio while still supporting the energy transition. A higher yield could therefore drive a re-rating.

The company has signalled a more formal policy on dividends could materialise by April at its investor briefing. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $9.29 from $9.26.

Target price is $9.29 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $0.56
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi found the 2024 guidance for a combined operating ratio (COR) of 93.5%, towards the high-end of the target range, disappointing and believes QBE Insurance should be "performing better than it is", given this is the strongest insurance market for at least 20 years.

The broker remains sceptical regarding the company's ability to turn around the "troublesome" US business and envisages more work needs to be done to make the planned transition in the mid-market business work.

Buy rating retained. Target is $18.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $1.89
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

QBE Insurance delivered gross written premium (GWP) growth of 8.8% in 2023 while average repricing was up 9.7%, excluding CTP, across the group.

While 2024 guidance for GWP growth in the mid single digits is below expectations Macquarie does not believe this signals a conservative stance. Capital remains strong and the payout ratio is expected to remain low as the business continues to grow.

The focus for the coming year will be around achieving the 93.5% Combined Operating Ratio (CoR) as the premium rate cycle peaks and North America undergoes remediation. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $17.10 from $16.60.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $0.99
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Following FY23 results, Morgan Stanley suspects QBE Insurance is focused on being conservative to deliver a more consistent performance, with the aim of driving a share price re-rating. Overall, the result was considered "solid".

The broker expects a muted share price reaction to the results given mildly disappointing FY24 combined operating ratio (COR) guidance, a weaker-than-expected dividend and no capital management.

Cash profit for FY23 was a miss against forecasts by the analyst and consensus of -3% and -1%, respectively, though profit before tax and the COR were in line with estimates.

The final dividend was -10% short of what the broker and consensus were expecting.

The target falls to $19.80 from $20.00. The broker believes with further initiatives for CAT exposure and US non-core, consistency will
continue to improve, and drive a share price re-rate. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $3.69
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

The FY23 result for QBE Insurance was fundamentally sound, according to Morgans, despite weaker-than-forecast headline numbers, and a -2% profit miss versus the consensus forecast. The broker liked the 16% return on equity (ROE) and very strong balance sheet.

Also slightly softer than consensus estimates, FY24 guidance is for mid-single-digit gross written premium (GWP) growth and a combined operating ratio (COR) of 93.5%.

More positively, the International business registered a very strong result, notes the analyst, but the North American performance weighed with a disappointing underwriting result.

The target rises to $17.96 from $17.56 on the broker's slightly softer GWP and margin assumptions, offset by a valuation roll-forward. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $17.96 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $1.85
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Lighten (4) -

2023 pre-tax profit from QBE Insurance rose to US$1.84bn, marginally missing forecasts, with Ord Minnett pointing out the sharp turnaround is courtesy of double-digit premium growth, an improved claims ratio and the doubling of investment income on policyholder/shareholder funds.

The company has guided to single-digit premium growth in 2024 with the combined operating ratio improving to 93.5%. The broker considers the target achievable despite a slowdown in premium rate increases. An $0.80 dividend is assumed for 2024.

The broker also expects stronger industry profitability will lead to heightened price competition and weaker returns over 2024 and retains a Lighten rating. Target rises 4% to $14.00.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

QBE Insurance reported a vastly improved return on equity with its full year result, exceeding 20% over the second half. The result, says UBS, leaves the company set up for a more resilient earnings profile ahead.

The broker notes with most earnings measures and guidance from the company missing its forecasts, the bar appears low for both top and bottom lines, and it sees further upside likely into the new financial year.

The Buy rating and target price of $20.00 are retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $3.89
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

First half results beat estimates at the earnings line. A production skew in the second half is required to meet guidance, Macquarie observes, adding that operating leverage poses the main upside into FY25 as base metals have potential to strengthen.

Earnings at Worsley, Cannington and Australian manganese were solid and the main issue, in the broker's opinion, despite a reduced buyback, is how management demonstrates an ability to generate value from its projects and operations.

The sanction of the Taylor project with a forecast 12% internal rate of return on a capital efficiency ratio of 0.3x based on a US$3200/t long-term zinc price requires long-dated optionality to improve the economics, Macquarie assesses.

Neutral maintained. Target is $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.22
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS has described South32's first half result as a "slight beat on low expectations". The company reported earnings of US$708m and net profits of US$53m. 

The company announced board approval of the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project within Hermosa, now slated for first production in the second half of FY27. Capital expenditure is estimated at US$2.16bn, expected to generate a 12% internal return rate.

UBS prefers to remain focused on short-term free cash flow growth, and looks to an improved second half based on an unwind of working capital, higher prices, lower costs and expenditure, and volume growth, which could drive a 7-8% free cashflow yield to FY25.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.75 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.87
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Buy (1) -

Santana Minerals' infill drilling at the Rise and Shine has proved a mixed bag, its higher-confidence Indicated Resource rising about 20% on previous estimates while total-contained gold estimates fell -16.8%.

Bell Potter now expects the Indicated Resource to be the limit of the any future open pit and reduces processing and production rates, as well as its early-stage project risk discount, accordingly. EPS forecasts rise.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.55
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TYR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Tyro Payments, noting the company is a leading payments provider to merchants in the retail, hospitality, health and services sectors.

The broker finds Tyro Payments well positioned to continue growing its market share, and anticipates the company will grow revenue by a 10% compound annual growth rate over the coming three years, bringing total revenue to $575.6m by FY26.

Shaw forecasts a cash earnings compound annual growth rate of 43% through to FY26, lifting margins to 11.2%.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.42
If TYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 42.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VCX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett increases its target for Vicinity Centres by 4% to $2.15 in the wake of first half results. A full year distribution of 11.5c is forecast, representing of the yield of around 6% based on the current stock price.

Even if retail conditions worsen or interest rates remain "stubbornly high", the broker believes the company's balance sheet is in good shape. Gearing remains conservative and at the low end of the 25-35% target. Hold maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.1
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Viva Leisure's December-half result appears to have missed Citi's forecasts but the broker retains the faith, appreciating the company's level of organic growth in a weak consumer environment.

Citi observe an acceleration in the company's club rollout, management guiding to 10 to 15 acquisitions and the opening of three to four greenfields sites; while corporate club memberships rose 10% (6000) in the half, the company adding another 5000 in January alone (possibly due to New Year's resolutions and rejoining of December cancellations, surmises the broker).

Earnings forecasts fall to reflect higher depreciation and amortisation and net interest.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.74 from $2.97.

Target price is $2.74 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $1.215
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Whitehaven Coal's December-half earnings outpaced Bell Potter's forecasts, while net profit after tax disappointed.

The company closed the half with net cash of $1.5bn and no dividend was declared to reflect lower coal prices and the Blackwater and Daunia purchases (which have ended the company's buy-back until the deal is finalised mid 2027). 

Unit costs moved towards the high end of guidance and the company surprised with a 7cps full franked interim dividend, observes the broker.

Management reiterated guidance but advised capital expenditure should be less than guided and flagged an opportunity to sell 20% in Blackwater, possibly into a joint venture with steel producers, says the broker.

EPS forecasts rise 4% in FY24; 4% in FY25; and 4% in FY26.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Sell to reflect a recent share price retreat. Target price is steady at $7.65.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $0.52
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources