Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AIZ as Sell (5) -

As control measures are easing faster than expected, UBS expects the cash burn may now be slightly lower than previous estimates.

The extent of the damage to the equity value of Air New Zealand is heavily dependent on the duration of the border closure and the pace of recovery in travel.

The broker expects domestic and trans Tasman capacity to rebuild to 50-80% of pre-pandemic levels by September.

Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to NZ$0.60 from NZ$0.45.

Current Price is $1.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -

Altium has highlighted near term headwinds which will mean the company is unlikely to hit its US$200m revenue target for FY20, given SMEs are in cash preservation mode in the typically strongest months of May-June. Discounts and extended payment terms have been offered to support volumes.

Management has nonetheless ensured the longer term thesis remains intact, with no change to a target of 100,000 subscribers by 2025. The broker sees short term weakness as an opportunity to invest for longer term strength. Overweight and $40 target retained.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.89 Difference: $5.11
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALU as Hold (3) -

The company has highlighted the cash preservation priorities of its small new customers in Europe and the US will likely affect the timing of Designer licence sales, despite attractive pricing and extended payment terms.

A strong finish to FY20 and achieving the goal of US$200m in revenue now looks to be a low probability, on the company's own admission. The broker lowers forecasts and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $31.70 from $28.30.

Target price is $31.70 Current Price is $34.89 Difference: minus $3.19 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

The third quarter update reinforces Credit Suisse's view regarding the depth of management. Operations have been kept running and supply chains open to produce packaged food and healthcare products.

The broker lifts estimates for earnings per share by 3-5% on lower interest expense guidance. Outperform rating and $16.90 target maintained.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $2.48
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -

Amcor reported March quarter earnings 5% above the broker's forecast. The company's packaging business may have benefited, the broker assumes, from US pantry stocking, including beverages, offsetting constraints from Chinese lockdowns in the period. The broker expects a more normal June quarter.

Increased earnings forecasts are at the low end of guidance but the broker retains Overweight on a 14.5x PE, being a -45% discount to the Industrials ex Financials compared to an average -20%, and a 5.2% yield when any yield is rare at this time. Target rises to $16.50 from $14.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $2.08
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Add (1) -

Amcor reported third-quarter year-to-date earnings growth of 14%, ahead of the 8% forecasted by Morgans. The company has guided towards earnings growth of 11-12% for FY20 backed by better business performance and lower interest costs.

The broker's earnings forecast is upgraded by 1% and 4% for FY20 and FY21. Add rating maintained with target price slightly higher at $16.80.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $2.38
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Accumulate (2) -

Amcor delivered underlying net profit of $246m in the March quarter, up 36.5%. FY20 guidance for earnings per share is increased, with the company now expecting 11-12% growth.

Ord Minnett envisages ample opportunity for the company to grow ahead of peers, because of the Bemis synergies as well as M&A opportunities or a buyback.

The main concern the broker has relates to the top-line performance, but if trends can be sustained over the medium term then multiples are expected to re-rate. Accumulate rating and $16.50 target.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $2.08
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

The third quarter result was in line with UBS estimates and the company has again raised its FY20 constant currency growth guidance to 11-12%.

UBS suggests this implies a very strong fourth-quarter, expected to be supported by seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere.

The pandemic has highlighted the benefits of the company's geographic diversification and the realisation of Bemis merger synergies continues to underpin the broker's FY20 growth forecasts.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $14.60 from $14.10.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $0.18
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company has proposed a nil-premium merger with SSR Mining. Credit Suisse believes Alacer Gold has potentially navigated the risk of overpaying for assets with the deal, which also provides geographic diversification without a 20-30% takeover premium attached.

Value enhancement remains contingent on operations execution and the broker notes both parties have a sound track record for exploration success. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target raised to $8.60 from $8.10.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -

Alacer Gold and SSR Mining have announced a merger, whereby Alacer Gold shareholders will receive 43% of the equity in the combined business.

No quantitative synergy benefits were highlighted by management, beyond $5-10m in office costs.

UBS notes both companies have strong balance sheet and the main benefits of the merger would probably stem from a lower cost of capital.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $0.64
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AST as Sell (5) -

Citi suspects investors are unlikely to be given the luxury of both distribution and capital expenditure growth. This is underscored by the guidance for the FY21 distribution.

The broker suggests the least dilutive pathway for Ausnet Services to fund capital expenditure and maintain flat distributions is to refinance maturities with new debt and raise equity of at least $500m.

The timing of a capital raising is uncertain and the broker expects one in FY22. Earnings estimates are downgraded. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $1.82 from $1.71.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AST as Equal-weight (3) -

AusNet's full year result was 4% ahead of the broker on strong costs controls and a 10.2c dividend is in line with expectation.

Guidance to 9.0-9.5c in FY21 is short of expectations given the company's commitment to dividend growth, but supports customer support measures, additional virus control costs and an upcoming reduction in regulatory income.

AusNet is exploring capital initiatives including raising equity and/or hybrid bonds. The broker retains Equal-weight and a $1.80 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AST as Reduce (5) -

The second half of AusNet Services saw operating earnings up 12% driven by increase in gas distribution and asset relocation revenues along with a reduction in costs.

Morgans notes a muted covid-19 impact with April electricity distribution volumes increasing 2%. The broker feels the asset base will continue to grow, but expects earnings to decline following regulated revenue resets.

The company is also expected to raise capital worth $680m in FY21. The company has cut dividend forecast by -7-12% and guided towards $0.09-0.095 per share in FY21.

Reduce rating maintained with target price decreased marginally to $1.57 from $1.58.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AST as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Underlying net profit in FY20 was slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker notes lower distribution guidance for FY21 and the possibility that Ausnet Services will need additional capital to fund growth.

As the stock is now offering only a 4.6% yield, based on distribution guidance, the broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and lowers the target to $1.75 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

FY20 earnings (EBIT) revealed an improvement in aluminium but a drop in building products. Citi expects a similar dynamic will play out in FY21.

Debt facilities have been increased, and the broker expects the resumption of a modest dividend pay-out of 8.5c in FY21. Target is lifted to $3.95 from $3.45 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.22
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

FY20 net profit was ahead of expectations. The company has noted a boost to FY20 income from stocking up during the pandemic.

While the decrease in residential business has played out for the building products segment, Credit Suisse notes revenue has still been remarkably resilient.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, now assuming CSR materially outperforms the end market.

A -20-30% expected decline in volumes over the next couple of years precludes the broker from becoming more positive. Target is raised to $4.10 from $2.80.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.37
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

CSR reported full year earnings 16% ahead of Morgan Stanley, although the broker had expected a 7c dividend but nothing was forthcoming. No guidance was offered, with management expecting an impact to be evident in FY21 but timing and extent is uncertain.

The housing cycle was already declining, the broker notes, so it remains to be seen what the additional virus hit might be. CSR has plenty of cash on the balance sheet, thus the dividend suspension likely reflects conservatism, Morgan Stanley assumes.

With risks now more evenly balanced at the price, the broker upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target rises to $3.75 from $2.90. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.02
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

FY20 net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Operating performance was better than expected across both divisions.

The broker upgrades estimates for FY21 on the back of aluminium, to capture the hedging position and further raw material benefits.

Meanwhile, the outlook for building materials is very weak. The broker removes the dividend forecast for the first half of FY21. Hold rating and $4 target maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.27
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

FY20 net profit was ahead of UBS estimates, led by aluminium. The broker notes the company's "agile" trading division, which has taken advantage of volatile conditions.

Moreover, while investors do not buy the stock for the aluminium business, UBS highlights the incremental improvements are welcome.

Building products also beat estimates, although UBS suspects a deep trough is looming in FY21. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $4.37 from $4.25.

Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.64
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

UBS updates estimates to reflect recent industry insights across the company's businesses. FY20-21 core operating earnings (EBITDA) have been revised down by -21%.

While uncertainties remain, the broker believes the share price is reflecting a high risk of breaching debt covenants and does not reflect the annuity component of the income streams, nor the ability to weather the challenging outlook for used-car markets.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.40 from $2.20.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.52
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assumes the debt position will reflect the pro forma balance sheet at the time of de-merger of the malt division, noting the first half result will be the first look at the new Graincorp.

The broker believes it will be important for the company to set expectations with respect to the rate of capital expenditure.

Expectations for the 2020/21 crop continue to improve and the broker envisages upside risk to winter crop forecasts. Outperform rating and $3.84 target.

Target price is $3.84 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.53
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 59.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

GPT provides diversified exposure to a $14.8bn property portfolio, weighted 41% to office, 16% to industrial and 43% to retail with the majority in NSW and Victoria.

Hence, Ord Minnett suggests the stock is trading at a deeply discounted valuation that more than compensates for the pandemic-related downside risks to asset values.

The broker acknowledges the risks, but believes Australia is better placed than many jurisdictions as social distancing restrictions are easing and visibility on occupational markets is improving.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.70 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.67
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HMC as Hold (3) -

Home Consortium has indicated that abatements of $6-7m are to be provided in the second half as agreements have been reached with more than 95% of tenants. Around 90% of tenants are open and trading.

Meanwhile, the planned health company spin-off is on hold. Ord Minnett notes leverage is a little restrictive, particularly if material devaluations come through, and may limit capital for development and future acquisitions.

The company has also signed a lease with the Department of Human Services to anchor its newly-acquired Ballarat centre.

Currently, the Cairns and Coffs Harbour developments are on track to open in the first half of FY21, and are 95% and 85% leased respectively. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $3 target.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.24
If HMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Capital raising of up to $675m marred an otherwise better than expected first half for Incitec Pivot. Morgans feels the amount raised reflects the company’s cautious outlook as while the company noted no material impact from covid-19 till date, the resulting uncertainty is likely to impact demand and commodity prices.

The broker has reduced earnings forecasts to the tune of -9.7% and -18.5% for FY20 and FY21, mainly reflecting dilution due to capital raising.

With uncertainty in explosives markets and weak fertiliser prices, Morgans holds onto the Hold rating for now with target price reduced to $2.25 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.24
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

The company has withdrawn prior guidance because of the uncertainty over the pandemic, although there has not been a material impact on revenue to date.

Credit Suisse assesses the revenue base largely remains intact, although new customers and some project work may be delayed.

Cost investment is also likely to be more moderate, because of the physical difficulty in on-boarding in the current environment.

Credit Suisse assesses the Asia-Pacific business is sound and there is an emerging super administration opportunity. Neutral maintained. Target is $11.60, reduced from $13.55.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $10.62 Difference: $0.98
If IRE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.80, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes Kogan.com will experience a positive structural impact as the pandemic accelerates the shift to online. The company's update revealed gross profit grew more than 150% in April.

The main issue for the broker is whether the surge in business is sustainable in the first half of FY21 and beyond. FY20 estimates for earnings per share are raised by 22% and FY21 by 8%.

The broker places the price target at $6.30. Neutral rating under review.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KMD as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Following a short restriction (from just ahead of the pandemic outbreak), Credit Suisse resumes coverage, upgrading to Outperform from Neutral and reducing the target to NZ$1.40 from NZ$3.65.

The broker acknowledges there is earnings uncertainty but believes the strength of the company's execution during the lockdown, the consumer appeal of its brands and robust balance sheet contribute to confidence going forward.

The broker assumes revenues decline by -55% in the second half compared with FY19, with the company not fully returning to FY19 levels until the first half of FY23. This drives substantial revisions to underlying estimates for operating earnings (EBITDA).

Current Price is $0.94. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAI as Add (1) -

Mainstream Group Holdings has re-issued FY20 guidance with revenue at $54m and operating earnings of $9m. Morgans considers the group’s funds under administration (FUA) resilient with strong revenue growth from core markets along with new demand from Australia, Asia and the US.

Controlling operating costs is the key focus near term, reports the broker, with measures including salary cut for management and paring back of capex. Morgans reduces FY20 revenue forecast to $54m from $56m while increasing FY20 earnings forecast by circa 3%.

Add rating retained with target price at $0.62 from $0.615.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.22
If MAI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Add (1) -

With recent capital raising of $15m and existing cash reserves, Micro-X will be cash flow positive in 18 months, predicts Morgans.

The broker considers key themes moving forward to include securing more orders for the Nano, obtaining FDA approval for the Rover and further development of the mobile backscatter image technology (MBI).

Speculative Buy rating maintained with target price reduced to $0.32 from $0.37.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.18
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Equal-weight (3) -

In a quick response to an update from Premier Investments, the broker nows sees upside risk to a forecast of -70% sales declines in the May-July quarter given stores will be progressively opening across the globe earlier than expected and online sales have been surging.

Equal-weight and $14 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $15.46 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.73, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Sales for the six weeks to May 6 were down -74%. Australasian stores will re-open by mid May and the UK by June with Asia variable.

UBS reduces FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -18-20% to reflect uncertainty and the likely weakness once initial impacts of government stimulus wear off.

The broker believes Premier Investments is one of the better-placed discretionary retailers and will emerge from the pandemic stronger. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.15 from $18.90.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $15.46 Difference: $1.69
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.73, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found nothing substantially different in the company's update which tweaked cost and production guidance for FY20.

The broker notes the company is taking measures to protect its balance sheet and the buyback has been shelved.

Costs are also under control and manganese prices have risen as supply disruptions tighten the market. Outperform rating and $2.50 target maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.66
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

Citi envisages risks to the growth outlook in the short term. While there is potential for the pandemic to accelerate the adoption of cloud accounting software over the medium term, subscriber growth is likely to slow because of a slowdown in new business formation and increased churn because of business failures.

The broker lowers FY20-22 forecasts by -5-28% to reflect this. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $83.00 from $74.50.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $83.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.67, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources