Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes total lodgements rose 18.7% in 4Q25 for Australian Finance Group, with a shift to third-party products, up 20.1%, AFG Securities products up 10.9%, against White Label products declining by -9.8%.

June quarter lodgements of $27.7bn included AFG Home Loan product of $1.8bn, representing 6.55% of all lodgements.

The analyst details the group's highest-margin AFG Securities lodgements rose 10.9% on a year earlier, representing 61% of all AFG Home Loan category lodgements.

Macquarie tweaks its earnings forecasts and raises the target price to $2.20 from $1.80 due to a higher valuation multiple ascribed.

Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.09
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Buy (1) -

Morgans made minor changes to forecasts for Ai-Media Technologies, with small increases to EBITDA forecasts for FY25-27.

Target price cut to $0.80 from $1.00 on a lower peer multiple. Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.26
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights Aurelia Metals offers a compelling entry point after recent share price pullback following concerns about changes in mining method and higher cost guidance.

The broker believes the company's production profile positions it towards future-facing metals with long-term relevance and pricing benefits. The analyst notes the evolving mine plan at Federation is a strategic adjustment that could enhance long-term value.

The higher cost outlook will unlock long-term efficiency, the broker explains.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 50c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.3
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley forecasts ANZ Bank earnings will decline by around -15% over the next two years, with the bank's Institutional business the major point of difference relative to the other major banks.

The broker proposes lower interest rates and a competitive backdrop will continue to impact margins, with only some offset from volume growth.

The analyst forecasts Institutional Bank revenue to fall by around -2.5% over the next two years, with a decline in Transaction Banking and Markets, and flat Corporate Finance revenue.

On the broker's analysis, a 10bp change in ANZ Bank's institutional margin impacts earnings by around 5%, while a 10bp institutional loss rate impacts earnings by circa 2.5% over the forecast period.

Target 26.50. Equal-weight, Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $30.08 Difference: minus $3.58 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi lifted its target price on Abacus Storage King to $1.73 from $1.40 following the upwardly revised takeover offer from the consortium of Ki Corp and Public Storage.

Below is the broker's previous note on the revised offer:

 Abacus Storage King received a revised offer at $1.65/security, up from the previously rejected offer of $1.47, from the consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage.

The broker assesses the new offer is at a -4.6% discount to the revised net tangible assets of $1.73 and may still not be enough to convince minority shareholders to accept it.

The raise is, however, a positive for self-storage valuations given the interest in the sector from large global investors, the analyst highlights.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.17
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Downgrade to Hold, Medium Risk from Buy (3) -

Abacus Storage King received an upwardly revised takeover offer from a consortium of Ki Corporation and Public Storage for $1.65/unit, up from the previously rejected $1.47/unit less distribution of 3.1c.

Shaw and Partners notes the revised proposal continues to undervalue the company as it is below NTA of $1.73. The broker notes there is a risk National Storage REIT ((NSR)) could block the deal because it recently increased its stake (currently 9.51%).

The analyst doesn't think the REIT is interested in fully acquiring Abacus Storage King but may want to ensure it is bought at a fair price by a well-capitalised US competitor.

Target unchanged at $1.65, with the risk the share price will decline as the transaction doesn't go through. Rating downgraded to Hold, Medium Risk from Buy.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.09
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updated its models to factor in the on-market share buyback by Atturra.

This resulted in a cut to target price to $0.90 from $1.00. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.1
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy (1) -

Bannerman Energy has raised $85m via a placement at $3.20 per share to support early construction at the Etango uranium project in Namibia. First production is targeted for 2027 and a Final Investment Decision expected later in 2025, notes Shaw and Partners.

Early works are progressing in line with budget, highlights the broker, including infrastructure installation and advancement on the heap leach pad and process plant design. Long-lead equipment also remains on schedule.

Shaw supports Bannerman’s cautious development strategy, noting the company is avoiding premature contracting or debt financing while uranium term prices remain below long-term expectations.

With a $140m cash position and only $23m in residual early works commitments, management is well positioned to continue project development and benefit from future sector tailwinds, suggest the analysts.

Shaw retains a Buy rating and a $4.70 target price.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $1.92
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Accumulate (2) -

Ahead of the FY25 result, Morgans notes its growth revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net profit forecasts for CAR Group are largely in line with consensus.

The broker slightly trimmed revenue forecasts for FY26-27 and lifted the cost profile slightly, leading to a -0.9% cut to FY26 EPS forecast and a -0.6% drop to FY27.

Accumulate. Target unchanged at $40.80.

Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $37.50 Difference: $3.3
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is forecasting Capstone Copper's 2Q25 group copper production of 57kt, -2% below consensus, while its cash forecast of US$2.49/lb is 2% above.

A key catalyst in the next six months is an update on the Santo Domingo minority selldown process, where the broker estimates a 30% stake sale for US$400m.

EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -4% due to minor changes in production profile and higher corporate expenses.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $13.30.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $4.44
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.88, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Morgans cut software revenue growth forecast for Data#3 for FY26-27 after reviewing the impact of Microsoft rebates.

At the same time, the broker raised its margin estimates as the company shifts focus towards the small and medium corporate segment, which carries higher margin potential.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -2.7% and FY27 by -6.2%. Hold. Target unchanged at $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.17, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

In a flash update from Bell Potter, the broker highlights the US Centre for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has made a preliminary approval for EBR Systems' WiSE CRT Systems for the Transitional Pass-Through (TPT) reimbursement scheme.

The analyst views this as another major milestone for the company, with the final ruling on TPT and NTAP reimbursement due in August, with both programs currently scheduled for reimbursement starting October 1.

The TPT program supports patients in the outpatient setting, the broker explains, with NTAP supporting patients in the in-patient setting.

Bell Potter expected the announcement, but it remains positive for a successful launch and robust adoption rates for WiSE, with management flagging each hospital will be able to average two procedures per month, which will be possible with the outlined reimbursement policies.

Buy rated. Target $2.25.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $1.07
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HSN as Overweight (1) -

Hansen Technologies announced an upgrade to FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance between 19%–21% growth to $110m–$112m, up 10% on previous guidance, which management attributed to lower costs and efficiency and a sooner-than-anticipated turnaround in Powercloud.

Morgan Stanley notes revenue guidance was lower, resulting from a delay in project timing into FY26.

The analyst highlights the company's shares underperformed the broader domestic market by around -15% to -20% post 1H25 results in February because earnings came in lower than expected. Management's upgrade is viewed positively by the broker.

Morgan Stanley believes the turnaround in German Powercloud is strategically significant for the business, as it reinforces management's ability to find assets at attractive valuations and manage successful bolt-ons.

Overweight. Target remains at $6.50. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.2
If HSN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett explains Hansen Technologies announced a positive FY25 earnings guidance upgrade by 15% to around 17% above the broker's previous forecast.

The company downgraded revenue guidance, but as highlighted by the analyst, it still represents growth of 11% on a year earlier and excludes the Powercloud acquisition.

Ord Minnett upgrades FY25 EPS forecast by 30%, with FY26 rising by 1.9%. Target price moves to $7 from $6.80 with an ongoing Buy rating.

Hansen is viewed as an "attractive" stock with a reasonable valuation and good growth prospects. Management states the company has a "solid pipeline of committed business".

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.7
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies has upgraded FY25 cash earnings (EBITDA) guidance by 16% at the midpoint to $92–94m. According to Shaw and Partners, this reflects operating efficiencies, cost control and better-than-expected contribution from Powercloud.

FY25 revenue guidance has been trimmed slightly to $391–393m due to project timing, explain the analysts, while underlying earnings have also been raised to $110–112m.

The broker notes FY25 cash earnings margins have expanded by 200bps to 24% despite conservative organic growth of around 5%.

While FY26 guidance was not provided, Shaw highlights a positive vibe from management (“optimistic about growth potential beyond FY25”) and a strong pipeline of committed work.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a $7.30 target price.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $2
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies upgraded FY25 guidance with cash earnings (EBITDA) lifted by 16% to around $93m from $76m–$85m, with a mixture of positive and negative news, according to UBS.

Project commencement delays impacted revenue, which has pointed to a shift in -$10m worth of revenue into FY26, which management offset with improved cost controls as a positive, the broker explains.

Cost savings were achieved across the newly acquired Powercloud and the core Hansen operations, with improved efficiency from automation feeding through. This trend is expected to continue into FY26.

UBS continues to view the stock as undervalued despite the 11% share price rally on the guidance upgrade. Target price moves higher; to $7 from $6.55.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.7
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24's custodial funds under administration were in line with Citi's estimate, as higher net flow was offset by lower-than-expected market movement gain.

Net flow beat the broker's forecast by 9% due to a larger-than-expected inflow from Equity Trustees transition. The number of advisers rose 13% y/y with 82 new additions in the quarter.

In terms of mix, retail was up 87% in 4Q vs 86% in 3Q, which the analyst reckons is positive for revenue margin. Overall, the broker assesses today's market update as solid, expecting consensus upgrades as its own forecast is 4% ahead on FY26 EBITDA.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $89.80.

Target price is $89.80 Current Price is $94.50 Difference: minus $4.7 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $83.61, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

The highlight of Hub24's 4Q25 update for UBS was the strong adviser growth of 13% to 5.1k as the broker considers it a key lead indicator for FY26 outlook. The broker is forecasting $17.3bn flow in FY26, 13% ahead of consensus.

On the 4Q25 numbers, the analyst notes organic flow was broadly in line, but migration flow, mainly from Equity Trustees, of $1.2bn was higher than its estimate of $900m. FUA of $112.7bn missed the broker's forecast by -1% on lower market gains.

Significantly, the company's FUA of $112.7bn has now exceeded Netwealth Group's ((NWL)).

EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 cut by -0.2% and -0.9%, respectively, reflecting the 4Q flows and mark-to-market gains. Buy maintained with $105 target price.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $94.50 Difference: $10.5
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.61, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group has launched a capital raise via an $18m placement at 81 cents (a -4.1% discount to the last close) and a $2m share purchase plan (SPP).

Bell Potter explains proceeds will fund further development of two subscription module products and bolster sales and marketing initiatives aimed at embedding its platform more deeply with utility and communications clients.

Product development receives -NZ$10.9m, with targeted productivity improvements of 5 times and a doubling of average revenue per user (ARPU). Sales and marketing acceleration is allocated -NZ$2.2m, while NZ$8.8m supports working capital and offer costs.

Pro forma cash rises to NZ$32.1m, highlights the broker.

The analysts make no changes to earnings forecasts but incorporates updated share count and cash position. Positive operating cash flow and a stronger balance sheet support the removal of the Speculative designation.

Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Speculative Buy and sets a target price of $1.14, down from $1.17.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.21
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie views the US$110/kg NdPr floor price set in the agreement between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defense as a positive precedent for ex-China pricing.

In the broker's view, the agreement reinforces the strategy of securing bilateral offtake deals, employed by Iluka Resources.

The broker expects further support from Western governments, potentially driving more agreements and strengthening global rare earth elements (REE) supply chains.

The analyst believes the market may now reduce the valuation discount on Iluka’s third-stage development of its rare earths refinery at Eneabba, Western Australia, despite its complexity.

Upside is expected from both higher NdPr prices and potential full refinery utilisation. Macquarie retains its $6.50 target price and Outperform rating.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $1.75
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans lifted forecasts for Jumbo Interactive for FY26 to reflect recent jackpot trends, leading to a 4.8% increase in revenue estimate and a 5% rise in EBITDA.

Forecasts for FY25 are largely unchanged, with the broker noting the jump in Oz Lotto jackpot volumes was offset by continued softness in Powerball.

Accumulate. Target rises to $11.30 from $11.20.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $9.75 Difference: $1.55
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.80, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Light & Wonder's 2Q25 result, Morgans is forecasting revenue of US$807m and adjusted EBITDA of US$345m.

Overall, the broker cut FY25 revenue forecast by -1.6% and FY26 by -1.7% on heightened competition, particularly in Australia.

The broker believes new game releases at the upcoming Australasian Gaming Expo in August will support a recovery in sales momentum.

The company remains the broker's preferred pick among gaming stocks. Buy. Target cut to $190 from $200.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $146.71 Difference: $43.29
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.00, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Lotus Resources has commenced hot commissioning at the Kayelekera Mill, observes Bell Potter, with mineralised waste ore running through the crushing and semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) circuits.

The next stages include commissioning the elution, precipitation, drying and packaging circuits, ahead of first U3O8 production targeted for the September quarter, explains the broker.

Stockpiled ore will be used initially, note the analysts, with fresh ore processing expected to begin by mid-September.

The cash balance was $77.3m at June-end, with US$48.5m in working capital facilities and a US$15m unsecured loan undrawn.

The broker believes the market remains sceptical but sees a successful restart as a catalyst for re-rating.

Bell Potter retains a Buy (Speculative) rating and 35c target.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.17
If LOT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 92.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Lotus Resources continues to progress towards the restart of Kayelekera, with first U3O8 production still flagged for the September 2025 quarter and mining commencing in the December quarter.

The miner has less reliance on stockpiles than Paladin Energy ((PDN)), the broker points out.

The company remains well capitalised with $77m of cash, which is well in excess of the broker's forecast of $41m, with less cash employed in the June quarter than previously guided by management. The analyst suspects some capex spend has been deferred.

Ord Minnett now anticipates peak capex in the September quarter at -US$30m for the re-start.

Speculative Buy rated with a 36c target price, down from 37c. No change to Ord Minnett's EPS estimates.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.18
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 92.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

UBS analysts articulates why they continue to like Lynas Rare Earths in the face of pushback from investors on valuation grounds.

The broker expects ongoing policy and industry initiatives to expand magnet capacity outside of China, which will support Lynas.

On that basis, UBS forecasts Lynas to sell 14ktpa NdPr from around 2030, an additional circa 8ktpa versus 2025, compared to consensus at 12ktpa.

The analysts believe the company can achieve those volumes operationally.

The NdFeB capacity estimates outside of China sit around 10% of the market, which is around 25kt NdFeB currently, and the broker believes this can expand to around 55kt by 2030.

The stock is Buy rated with a $10.40 target price.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: $0.4
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.19, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MAQ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains Macquarie Technology has entered into a put and call option to acquire land purchased for an entirely new data centre campus in Sydney, with sub-division approval needed for the option to be exercised.

The purchase price of -$240m will be cash funded ($90m last reported) and debt, with $450m in undrawn facilities.

The broker estimates the all-in costs for the 150MW project to be between -$2bn–$2.3bn, with forecast revenue of around $500m and earnings (EBITDA) of $150m–$200m at full load.

To fund the full 150MW IT load, Morgan Stanley states the company will need to raise equity or establish equity partners and/or leverage future contracted capacity with debt.

The broker believes the land acquisition is strategic for the company's long-term data centre growth and the shares are attractively priced.

Overweight rating retained with $102 target price. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $67.85 Difference: $34.15
If MAQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 has updated progress on its pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the 100%-owned Bullabulling Gold Project in WA, outlining a large-scale open pit mining and processing operation.

Bell Potter highlights the positive momentum across workstreams, with metallurgical testing showing 89–93% recoveries, environmental studies suggesting the project may avoid Federal EPBC referral, and multiple potential water sources identified.

The broker believes that much of the remaining work focuses on validation and optimisation, given the high standard of prior studies, which significantly de-risks the development timeline and cost structure.

Minerals 260 also offers valuation upside through further discovery, project advancement, and potential M&A interest in a market of cashed-up producers seeking growth, suggest the analysts.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and valuation of 28c.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.16
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes Paladin Energy will re-rate over the coming quarters, as the business shakes off negative earnings sentiment over FY25.

The analysts expect Paladin’s 4QFY25 result will be closely watched for mill performance on blended ore, any contract disruptions, and updated production and cost guidance for FY26.

The broker forecasts 0.8mlbs production (up 6% quarter-on-quarter) and 0.7mlbs in sales, noting consensus expectations are likely conservative given recent operating headwinds, which creates scope for a beat.

The achieved uranium price is likely to retreat slightly due to flexing under the CNNC spot-linked contract. There is an offtake agreement between Paladin and China National Nuclear Corporation.

A CEO transition is viewed positively, with incoming Paul Hemburrow seen as well-placed to lead Langer Heinrich through its next development phase.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $9.20 from $6.50 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $2.07
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes load factors are rising across the Qantas Airways network, aided by limited capacity additions on key domestic routes, supporting a strong FY25 earnings outlook.

FY26 earnings are also expected to grow, but the broker highlights international operations face some risks, particularly on the US and Singapore routes. Seat capacity for the two are set to rise 20% and 11%, respectively, potentially pressuring yields and load factors.

Return on funds employed  (ROFE) is expected to remain strong at 40-50% in FY26, with dividends forecast to total around 54c, supported by solid cash generation and low net debt.

The broker raises its EPS forecasts by 1.4-2.9% over FY25-27, incorporating stronger load factors and tempered international capacity growth. The target price is increased to $10.40 from $10.10 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans made no revisions to REA Group's forecasts ahead of the FY25 result, with total revenue, EBITDA and net profit estimates largely in line with consensus.

Hold. Target unchanged at $250.

Target price is $250.00 Current Price is $233.97 Difference: $16.03
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $268.86, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS hosted a call with the CFO of Entree Resources, Duane Lo, to discuss Oyu Tolgoi on the back of Rio Tinto's June 6 announcement that Oyu's board had approved development work under an alternative mine plan, which is delaying the development of Panel 1, a JV area with Entree.

The board is also pulling forward development of Panel 2 South, which is located outside of Entree’s JV area, the analyst highlights.

Panel 1 is due to support production from 2027, and Rio Tinto's management has emphasised there is no change to 2025 copper guidance of 780–850kt or longer-term guidance for Oyu of 500kt from 2028–36.

Neutral rated with a $120 target price.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $111.74 Difference: $8.26
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.25, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 has withdrawn FY26 production guidance for the Mozal aluminium smelter due to unresolved power supply negotiations, oberves Macquarie. A potential asset impairment was also flagged for FY25 results.

Despite six years of discussions with Hidroelectrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB), Eskom, and the Mozambique government, a long-term power agreement has not been secured, explains the broker. Higher costs from Eskom are now expected to significantly lift processing costs.

Macquarie assumes operations continue at Mozal but with electricity representing around 45% of processing costs (versus 35% under the HCB agreement), leading to -3-8% EPS downgrades from FY26.

The broker notes Mozal is economically vital, accounting for circa 4% of Mozambique’s GDP and employing 3,000 workers directly, so closure would be a last resort.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $3.40 from $3.60 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.45
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the risk to power at the Mozal smelter is well flagged but remains an ongoing earnings risk for South32.

The analyst expects Mozal to produce 370kt of aluminium for FY26 and generate earnings (EBITDA) of US$238m. If a power deal is not reached, the impact to 4Q26 earnings would be estimated at around -US$67m to the group FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast of US$2.7bn.

A shutdown for FY27 would result in an estimated -US$210m earnings impact or some circa -7% of Morgan Stanley's earnings (EBITDA) forecast of around US$3bn.

The smelter represents around 4% of Mozambique's GDP and employs some 1,150 full-time staff with 21,000 indirect jobs and around 1,200 contractors, and thus is considered important to the country, the broker explains.

Overweight rating and no change to target price at $3.05. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.1
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 has flagged the possibility it might cease operations at its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique in March 2026, at least that's Ord Minnett's assessment, after failing to negotiate power supply at an affordable price after the March expiry.

Ord Minnett had applied a 50% risk weighting for a potential shutdown given the long delay in negotiations. The broker has now factored in shutdown costs in the model and removed -US$504m from its valuation.

FY25 EPS forecast is unchanged, but FY26 and FY27 cut by -0.7% and -13.6% respectively.

Buy. Target trimmed to $3.90 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.95
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 announced its Mozal aluminium smelter (63.7% owned) has failed to achieve an agreement to roll forward its power contract beyond March 2026.

The Mozambique government also pointed to possible power supply impacts from the drought, and FY26 production guidance is now being reviewed by management.

UBS raises the expected power costs at Mozal, which results in a valuation reduction of around -US$400m and an impairment to FY25 results.

The analyst cuts EPS estimates by -13% for FY25 and -8% for FY26. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.25
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans made no revisions to Seek's forecasts ahead of the FY25 result, with total revenue, EBITDA and net profit estimates largely in line with consensus.

Accumulate. Target unchanged at $27.20.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $23.96 Difference: $3.24
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.28, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

At the 4Q25 report, Macquarie is forecasting group copper production of 29.4kt for Sandfire Resources, 2% above consensus. The forecast for cost is US$1.55/lb, 3% higher than the consensus.

The broker notes operating cost and capex guidance is traditionally released by the company at the FY results in August. This time the broker also expects details on a dividend reimplementation plan once the company reaches the net cash target level (3Q26 broker's forecast).

The company has US$265m in franking credits. EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -3% on a slight reduction in Matsa production.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $0.95
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.13, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans upgraded FY25 underlying EBITDA forecast for Superloop by 3% following an upward revision in the company's guidance to $91m from $83-88m.

The broker sees upside risk to forecasts for FY26 and beyond, but didn't make any changes. Instead, it applied a 15% premium on the valuation.

Accumulate. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.54
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Ahead of the FY25 result, Morgans lowered Tabcorp Holdings' net profit forecast for FY25 by -3% but lifted FY26 forecast by 2%.

The broker believes the outlook for the company is positive with the rollout of "tap-in" in-play betting and the proposed shift in the retail commission structure. But prefers to wait for more tangible outcomes before changing its view on the stock.

Hold. Target unchanged at 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Hold (3) -

Morgans lifted Lottery Corp's revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 following a higher finish to the year for lotteries.

The broker notes while Oz Lotto performed very well, Powerball was subdued, but jackpot sequences should improve in the future due to changes in the Prize Reserve Fund.

Hold. Target rises to $5.70 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.33
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Morgans upgraded Telstra Group rating to Hold from Sell as it now believes the share could stay expensive for some time, given management's optimism about medium-term growth targets.

The broker also notes its previous assumption mobile pricing will decline after three years of increases no longer appears valid as prices continue to increase, with discounting also fading.

EPS forecast for FY26 are slightly trimmed as the analyst incorporated the on-market share buyback (now completed) into estimates. Target rises to $4.70 from $4.00 due to a valuation change.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPG as Hold (3) -

Morgans made minor revisions to TPG Telecom's forecasts for FY25-26.

Target price rises to $5.40 from $5.00 as the broker applied a higher multiple of 8x (from 7x) in the EV/EBITDA valuation. Hold maintained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TTX as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Tetratherix, a medical device company developing regenerative solutions using its Tetramatrix platform. Applications are across bone regeneration, tissue spacing, and tissue healing.

The polymer transforms into a 3D gel upon injection, explain the analysts, adhering to tissues without provoking a foreign body response.

The company is targeting five indications across three major therapeutic franchises, with FDA clearances expected between 2H26 and 2H29, and management estimating a US$6.8bn total addressable market.

Morgans forecasts profitability from FY28, underpinned by an assumed 8% peak market share, 10% royalty rates, and a 30-year product life.

IPO proceeds of $25m plus existing reserves are expected to fund operations through FY27, supporting manufacturing expansion, clinical trials, regulatory milestones and strategic partnerships.

The broker sees key catalysts in 1H26 including partnerships in orthopaedics and ophthalmology. Morgans initiates with a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $5.72.

Target price is $5.72 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $2.42
If TTX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources