Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Underweight (5) -

Nielsen data indicates the company's off-line infant formula sales were strong in September and October. Morgan Stanley considers this incrementally positive but still anticipates revenue growth will slow in the second half.

The broker forecasts Chinese label sales growth of 84% in the first half, slowing to 41% in the second half.

Underweight rating. Target is $10.80. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $14.53 Difference: minus $3.73 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

ANZ Bank has responded to the final Reserve Bank of New Zealand reforms noting there is a reduced impact on CET1 capital for the group and remains confident it can meet the requirements without the need to raise additional capital.

The total impact on CET1 is expected to be $4.5bn. While Morgan Stanley did not believe the bank would require a capital raising, it did estimate the net NZ pay-out ratio would need to fall to 30% from 80% to meet the tier 1 target by 2023.

Based on these proposals, the pay-out ratio will not need to fall as much. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $24.80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: $0.22
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.31, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APT as Overweight (1) -

The latest data from the company indicates user numbers are running ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The company has 6.6m active users and 42,500 merchants as of the end of November.

Overweight rating and $44 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $29.93 Difference: $14.07
If APT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.00, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APT as Sell (5) -

Pursuant to yesterday note, in which the broker reiterated its Sell rating for Afterpay Touch based on a perceived high credit risk for the BNPL sector, and higher still for Afterpay individually, the broker has increased its sales forecasts following yesterday's update from management. Both the US and UK customer bases are tracking at a higher rate than anticipated, highlighting, the broker suggests, strong execution.

But this does not detract from a valuation call based on said risk rather than discounted cash flow methodology. Sell and $17.60 target retained.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $29.93 Difference: minus $12.33 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.00, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -

Outperformance in the oxide business had led Alacer Gold to twice lift production guidance in 2019, and the broker has now increased its oxide production forecast. The stock may have risen some 200% but the broker believes there is more to come.

Alacer stands out with a free cash flow yield over 10% with peers on an average of 5%, and a 20-plus year mine life compared to an average 5-10. Target rises to $9.50 from $7.65, Buy retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.54
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

The company has disclosed that financial irregularities in its North American windows business will result in a -US$20-30m hit to FY20 operating earnings.

A comprehensive investigation is currently underway, along with a review of management, operating procedures and internal controls.

Citi suspects the announcement will trigger downgrades and raise management credibility concerns.

Having recently downgraded to Neutral the broker reduces the target to $4.80 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.19
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company has disclosed initiatives to deliver $195m in earnings (EBIT) over five years. As Caltex has previously walked away from expecting an earnings uplift in convenience, Citi believes it needs to earn back the trust of the market on the credibility of its forecasts.

The broker is hesitant to increase estimates for earnings, given a lack of transparency on the opportunities and a need to prove most of the convenience initiatives.

Citi assesses management needs to execute on initiatives just to match the bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard, without the luxury of breaching the 'no material asset sales' condition.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target raised to $34.00 from $30.50.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $34.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

Given the company is leaving the door open to furthering engagement with Alimentation Couche-Tard, Credit Suisse suspects the M&A focus has some distance to go.

The broker envisages a potential meeting of interest in the sale of shop convenience locations together with an agreement for the sale of fuel under an agency arrangement.

The broker incorporates some upside from fuels and infrastructure initiatives in the estimated break-up value and includes the sale of surplus sites and property IPO in cash flow as well as a $1bn buyback in the second half.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $36.25 from $36.75.

Target price is $36.25 Current Price is $34.49 Difference: $1.76
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

Caltex has guided to 2019 profit of $320-360m, ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker believes the catalysts for the near term are likely to be via a revised bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard or the property IPO.

Meanwhile, Caltex is demonstrating a positive growth outlook and an ability to extract higher returns from the existing asset base.

Neutral maintained. Target is $34.50.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $34.49 Difference: $0.01
If CTX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Overweight (1) -

Final guidance for 2019 is close to Morgan Stanley's estimates. Fuel and infrastructure earnings appear to be down around -10%.

Net cash proceeds of $92m from the sale of 25 petrol stations is ahead of estimates.

Rating is Overweight. Target is $34. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $34.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -

Management has identified further capital discipline and guided to 2019 EBIT of $580-620m and net profit of $320-360m. Despite the possibility of a higher bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard, Ord Minnett believes corporate appeal alone is insufficient to justify a more positive view.

The broker is pleased with the focus on returning capital with a prioritised effort to return franking credits to shareholders. The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $35 from $34.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.49 Difference: $0.51
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTX as No Rating (-1) -

UBS has trimmed earnings forecasts in the wake of Caltex Australia's investor day. The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $34.49. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes the company has made a solid start to FY20, although an increasing milk price could put pressure on earnings, which remains subject to volatility.

The broker observes, having largely dealt with the balance sheet issues, the investment case for Fonterra Shareholders Fund centres on what the business will look like in the future and how it will position with regards to its capital structure and relevance as a processor of choice in the NZ milk pool.

The broker expects further progress over the next 12 months on an exit of Brazil, a strategic decision on China Farms and potentially some product and market rationalisation.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is NZ$3.85.

Current Price is $3.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Fonterra posted a "respectable" first quarter result, the broker suggests, and FY earnings guidance has been maintained. But guidance highlights growing margin pressure from NZ farmgate prices and difficult trading conditions for ingredients in China, Hong Kong and Australia.

For now the broker retains Neutral and an NZ$3.50 target, waiting to become more confident a turnaround is underway.

Current Price is $3.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Jumbo Interactive has signed its third "Powered by Jumbo" software-as-a-service agreement with Deaf Services lotteries. The terms of the deal are five years with an extension to 10 years if performance hurdles are met.

Morgan Stanley envisages upside potential to total transaction value from the company's more efficient lottery management.

Target is $24. Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $19.07 Difference: $4.93
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Accumulate (2) -

Megaport has announced a $62m institutional placement at $8.70 a share. This should fund the business to breaking even on cash flow over the next 18 months, Ord Minnett notes.

The broker expects it will further cement the company's scale advantage and increase the breadth and depth of the software-designed network. The strong sales momentum appeals to Ord Minnett and an Accumulate rating and $10.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.67 Difference: $0.83
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.06, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Metcash is trading at a -50% discount to grocery retailers and its cash flow yield is far less appealing given the level of earnings volatility. The broker remains cautious about the ability of Metcash to return to sustainable growth.

Meanwhile, cash flow marred what was otherwise a solid first half result, in the broker's view. Hardware was also credible in the face of a housing construction cycle at its weakest point in over 10 years. Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.03
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MTS as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse observes the financial impacts of contract losses are now well understood. What remains uncertain is a longer-term view on the competitive nature of the company's distribution system.

The next significant contract renewal is FoodWorks in September 2020. Wholesale sales continue to improve in the first half and food sales were stronger than Credit Suisse expected.

The broker makes minor upgrades to assumptions for food and hardware in the second half.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.39 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Underperform (5) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. While there were signs of improvement in food, the broker notes earnings (EBIT) went backwards.

Headwinds for the hardware business are likely to persist further 12 to 18 months, in the broker's view.

Underperform retained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Overweight (1) -

First half momentum within the food business continued with efficiencies and mix countered by subdued hardware demand, Morgan Stanley observes. Cash realisation was weak.

Overall, results beat estimates, nevertheless. Importantly, management indicated that growth, ex tobacco has continued into the first five weeks of the second half.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a -4% earnings decline in FY20 with a -7% decline in food earnings.

Overweight rating. Industry view: Cautious. Target reduces to $2.90 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.13
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

First half net profit of $95.7m was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast. Operating cash flow was weak, as the company invested in working capital, although the core wholesale food sales grew and the lower deflation please the broker.

Ord Minnett remains confident the key FoodWorks contract can be maintained. While hardware has enjoyed significant synergy realisation, the broker notes the external environment is more difficult and the loss of a major Queensland customer a headwind.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, noting improving sales trends and valuation. Target is steady at $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.23
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

A -5% fall in earnings for Metcash in the first half is actually 4% better than the broker had forecast. Supermarkets & convenience was the main driver of losses, but actually positive if the Drakes contract loss impact is taken out. Liquor and hardware both outperformed the broker, the latter despite a -20% drop in building approvals. Cash flow was nonetheless weak.

The broker believes the outlook for Metcash is improving and the stock appears cheap, but uncertainty over key contracts remains a risk. Neutral and $2.80 target retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.03
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Haverion, 45km from Newcrest's remote Telfer mine, has potential to extend mine life and modestly rein in costs, Citi observes. This is, however, unlikely to change the fact that earnings drivers are with Cadia and Lihir.

The broker assesses, for the economics to stack up, underground feed from Haverion would need to provide an increase of at least 2mtpa and more than 2g/t gold and 0.3% copper.

While not transformational, extending the mine life would buy time to potentially change the economics for the large, low-grade resource at Telfer. Citi retains a Neutral rating and $33.50 target.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $29.52 Difference: $3.98
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.49, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Northern Star had been enjoying a valuation premium, UBS notes, after several years of outperformance in production, exploration and acquisitions. But that premium has now been wiped out given the turnaround at Pogo is some 6-12 months behind management target.

The turnaround remains delayed, the broker notes after visiting Pogo, but is coming. The recent share price decline has taken the stock into undervaluation, leading UBS to upgrade to Buy. Target rises to $12.00 from $11.20.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.85 Difference: $2.15
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.90, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -

The board has unanimously rejected the all-scrip offer from Independence Group ((IGO)) and simultaneously announced an accelerated rights issue at 1-for-6 to breach its funding shortfall and raise $31m.

Macquarie is perplexed about the decision to reject the offer and then launch a rights issue. That said, the cash would enable the company to resolve some issues and provide some insulation for funding during the ramp up of Savannah North.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.39 from $0.40.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.03
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Angus McPherson, current ahead of the Americas and global sales business, has been unable to relocate to the US as planned. His replacement will commence in January 2020.

Morgan Stanley considers this development compounds the significant turnover among senior management and creates further uncertainty in the Americas business.

The broker considers success in the Americas is key to the company achieving on expectations in the next three years.

Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view maintained. Target is $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.00, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -

Westpac has responded to the final reforms from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, noting a total tier 1 impact of NZ$2.3-2.9m.

Based on the final proposals Morgan Stanley believes Westpac has more flexibility now to use its NZ AT1 capital and the pay-out ratio will not need to fall as much.

While this is a positive development, the broker points out investors had been expecting the proposals to be watered down in some way.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $24.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $24.27 Difference: $0.23
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.55, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Insufficient labour and environmental problems because of the drought at Maules Creek has meant the company has downgraded guidance significantly. Macquarie believes there is an increased risk of water restrictions should the drought not break.

There is further downside risk under a spot coal price scenario, which the broker calculates generates -35% and -15% lower earnings for FY20 and FY21 respectively.

The company has stated that no interruptions are currently expected on account of water supply issues and this has not been factored into the current downgraded guidance.

However, delays in current water augmentation plans could affect the FY20 outlook. Macquarie reduces the target to $2.70 from $3.40. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.08
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the regional skills shortage at Maules Creek is of concern as contract labour costs could affect costs into FY21.

Maules Creek run-of-mine production has been downgraded to 10-11mt because of stoppages from dust events, because of water shortages, and labour shortages.

Meanwhile, the Vickery regulatory decision is delayed, which does not affect fundamentals in the broker's view. Morgan Stanley downgrades FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -20%.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and $4.80 target maintained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $2.18
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Lighten (4) -

FY20 guidance has been downgraded by -8% for production and -5% for sales, while costs have been upgraded by 6%.

Ord Minnett finds the explanation for the disruptions at Maules Creek bizarre, ranging from labour shortages to stoppages because of low visibility from smoke, dust and haze, and wonders why this was not raised as recently as the investor briefing.

The one positive the broker notes from the update is that the Vickery permits have been delayed and therefore capital expenditure has been pushed out. The broker still dislikes the economics of Vickery and welcomes any delay.

Lighten rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.18
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal has downgraded production guidance due to a shortage of skilled labour and several temporary suspensions at Maules Creek when the drought-driven dust clouds rolled in.  The company plans to mitigate the cost of having to offer higher wages by training up unskilled workers, and mitigate the dust issue by buying up adjacent properties with water licences.

Target falls to $3.80 from $4.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.18
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 41.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The recent surge in the nickel price drove Western Areas into overvaluation on UBS' numbers, which is why a Sell rating was in place. The subsequent -20% fall in the nickel price has seen the stock fall back to fair value.

Upgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.80 on a rise in the broker's own nickel price forecasts.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.09
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources