Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AGE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

No change to Speculative Buy rating and 7c target for Alligator Energy. Bell Potter compares it to other (in situ recovery U308 projects) like Boss Energy ((BOE)) offering scope for valuation creation with development and expansion de-risking the projects.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.04
If AGE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMA as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans factors in a 1-for-10 equity consolidation while retaining an Accumulate rating on AMA Group. Target price moves to 91c from 11c.

The analyst has also lowered earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -2.5% on slightly softer volume expectations but continues to like the group's leading market position and options offered from the balance sheet with a sound growth outlook.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.12
If AMA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has adjusted forecasts for Amcor as it now trades on a 1 for 5 reverse share split.

The company's 2Q26 result is due in early February, and the broker notes the 2Q EPS guidance of US80-90c per share (new basis) is broadly in line with the consensus of US84c.

While 2Q26 volumes are expected to remain soft, the broker sees gradual improvement through 2H26 and into FY27, supported by weaker comps and stabilising demand.

Target price now $87.10 (vs $17.42 on old share basis). Outperform maintained.

Note: Macquarie is the first to amend for the consolidation which is creating a split with forecasts elsewhere that have as yet not been adjusted.

Target price is $87.10

Current consensus price target is $27.89, suggesting upside of 115.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for ANZ Bank to $40.30 from $37.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing benefits into 2026 from strong tailwinds, driven by disciplined execution on costs and strategy. The bank's valuation is also seen as undemanding relative to peer.

Among the majors, the broker's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.

Target price is $40.30 Current Price is $36.38 Difference: $3.92
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.98, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to $10.25 from $10.10 and downgrades to Sell from Neutral given the recent share price rally.

Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $10.94 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.30, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's global commodities team remains positive on global commodity-based equities, believing there's potential for long-lasting structural changes for the traditionally more challenged steel and aluminium segments.

The broker has upgraded its preference for copper, aluminium and lithium, citing favourable 2026 tailwinds and considers Australian diversified miners as attractively valued exposure to these tailwinds.

With around 70% of revenue generated from aluminium, South32 remains Overweight-rated with a circa 8% copper exposure.

BHP Group is preferred for exposure to copper at around 44% revenue and attractive valuation.

Overweight rating and a $48 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $48.12 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.98, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Following the analysis of coal export data at various ports in December, Ord Minnett lifted BHP Group's FY26 EPS forecast by 0.2% but FY27-28 were unchanged.

Queensland coal exports rose 4% y/y to 19.1Mt in December, although full-year 2025 shipments declined -3% to 200Mt. Gladstone coal exports were up 15% y/y and Dalrymple Bay 13% y/y, though Hay Point saw weakness, down -19% y/y.

Benchmark PLV hard coking coal prices have lifted to US$220/t year-to-date, supported by European and Indian demand, and wet-season supply risks, the broker highlights.

Target rises to $49 from $48 on valuation roll-forward and EPS revision. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $48.12 Difference: $0.88
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.98, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

No change to Boss Energy's Buy rating, and target is $1.95. The analyst believes the producer may become a takeover target and is tracking along the bottom of its trading range.

The broker lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -24% for FY26 and -25% for FY27, assuming a 10-year mine life for Honeymoon and limited to around 1.6Mlbs per annum with higher costs, until management suggests otherwise.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.39
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Bank of Queensland to $7.15 from $7.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing efficient execution on a targeted strategy to lift medium-term returns.

Capital deployment into business banking is being prioritised, explain the analysts, while enhancing retail banking profitability.

Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.46 Difference: $0.69
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel firmly rejected the $30/share bid from SGH Ltd ((SGH)) and Steel Dynamics, arguing it materially undervalues the business. The main point of contention is the value of its property portfolio, Macquarie explains.

While BlueScope values the property book at $2.8bn, the broker's detailed assessment suggests a lower valuation of $2.3bn. A transaction of some form remains possible, in the broker's view.

The company declared a "generous" special dividend of $1/share, the broker notes, and attention now shifts to defence of property valuation.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 4% and FY27 by 2%, after factoring in commodity price revisions, asset sales and special dividend. Outperform, with a higher target of $34.05 from $25.50, reflecting special dividend and $2.3bn property valuation.

Target price is $34.05 Current Price is $29.76 Difference: $4.29
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for CommBank to $137 from $130 and retains a Sell rating.

Among the majors, the broker's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $152.88 Difference: minus $15.88 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.34, suggesting downside of -22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees positive tailwinds for Computershare from strong corporate activity, US Corporate Trust issuance and equity markets, driving upside risk to FY26 earnings, revenue and margins.

However, the broker reckons sentiment may be weighed down by ongoing debate around equity tokenisation and blockchain impacts. This is despite an attractive valuation and a -17% underperformance versus the ASX200 since FY25 results,

A Neutral rating is thus retained and target price lowered to $37.80 from $39 with a lift in EPS estimates of 2.5% for FY26 and 2.1% for FY27.

Target price is $37.80 Current Price is $34.62 Difference: $3.18
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.92, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DYL as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating on Deep Yellow and lifts the target to $2 from $1.85 due to changes on the U308 price outlook. Management continues to concentrate on moving the Tumas project ahead with a final investment decision and project financing in 2026.

The definitive feasibility study for the Mulga Rock Project is due in 3Q2026.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If DYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GDG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi has initiated coverage of Generation Development with a Buy rating and a $7.50 target, viewing it as one of the fastest-growing financials in the ASX200.

The broker sees growth drivers in strong outperformance and structural tailwinds in managed accounts, with further potential from FUM (funds under management) growth and an acceleration in operating leverage. This is alongside improving momentum in investment bonds supported by legislative and product tailwinds.

With solid execution, an aligned management team and scope for innovation, the broker forecasts 32% compounded annual EPS growth over the next three years.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: $1.47
If GDG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.62, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Ahead of FY25 results in February, Citi sees upside risk to GPT Group's results and FY26 guidance, supported by continued strong operational performance across its portfolios.

Additional earnings upside is expected from recent and upcoming funds and property management initiatives, including acquisitions in office and student housing. This is alongside structural, tax and financing improvements.

GPT Group remains a top pick for the broker given its improving return on equity, solid medium-term growth outlook and expanding funds management platform.

Buy rating and $6 target price.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.58
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Post an updated 1H26 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) loss guidance update from HighCom, Bell Potter downgrades the stock to Hold from Buy and lowers the target to 32c from 40c.

Management has flagged revenue range at $10.5-$11m and an earnings loss of -$5m to -$5.8m versus 1H26 revenue of $26.6m and $1.9m in earnings.

The weak update was attributed to the long US Government shutdown in October and November which delayed contracts and procurements. The outlook for 2H26 remains upbeat, management noted, with both revenue and earnings expected to exceed 1H26 and earnings to become more positive.

The broker accordingly revises EPS estimate to a loss for FY26 and FY27 down by -22%. The company also announced the resignation of CEO Todd Ashurst who was appointed in March and is being replaced immediately by Geoffrey Knox.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.06
If HCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's December quarter insurance premium survey points to a rise in motor of 10% y/y and home up 3% y/y with reinsurance lower and higher yields, which is expected to underpin margins.

Recent CATs are viewed by the analyst as a headwind for insurers 1H26 dividends but should reinforce home pricing.

The analyst continues to prefer Suncorp Group ((SUN)) over Insurance Australia Group on re-rating and capital options.

Target price $8.45. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $0.82
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects investor interest in rare earths to rebound in 1H2026 amid growing supply-security concerns and supportive underlying fundamentals.

Ahead of Iluka Resources' December quarter report on January 29, the broker forecasts Z/R/SR sales to be 18% higher, with weaker zircon (-5%) and rutile (-11%) volumes more than offset by synthetic rutile (+48%).

Macquarie expects ilmenite sales to miss consensus, while average realised prices for Z/R/SR are forecast to undershoot by -12% at $1,719/t.

The broker updated forecasts to reflect marked-to-market December quarter mineral sands and rare earths prices, along with revised FX assumptions over the medium to long term. EPS revisions are modest.

Neutral.Target unchanged at $7.10.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $0.43
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH Ltd's Australian filings in December rose 3.9% y/y versus the market's 28.2% growth, with market share slipping to 23.8% in 1H26. Macquarie notes around 70% of the company's income is recurring.

US patent activity growth remained negative, with a rolling -5.1% annual decline to October.

No change to forecasts. Outperform rating and $4.04 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.29
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Citi opens a 90-day positive catalyst watch on Judo Capital ahead of its1H26 result, expecting guidance to be reiterated with potential upside risks. Recent shifts in term deposit pricing vs swaps are seen as supportive, as higher one-year swap rates could lift the exit net interest margin (NIM) and outlook commentary.

The analyst highlights this contrasts with 2H25, when falling swap rates pressured TD pricing and exit NIM into the result.

Citi retains a Buy rating, and the target rises to $2.15 from $2.00.

Overall, the broker believes bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.32
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates KYP as Buy (1) -

Kinatico's 1H26 update showed strong SaaS (software as a service) revenue growth of 49% y/y, slightly ahead of Shaw and Partners' forecast. The SaaS exit rate, however, slowed to 41%, and while this can be lumpy, the broker suggests a stronger 2H might be needed.

The broker expects 2H momentum from the continued ramp of Kinatico Compliance and expansion into new geographies, while FY26 transactional revenue is seen on track for $15m despite short-term softness.

FY26 EBITDA forecast trimmed by -18% to $5.6m, even as the broker remains bullish on the company's product strategy, top-line growth and operating leverage. Buy, High Risk and 46c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.2
If KYP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

Lotus Resources retains a Speculative Buy rating with a lower target of 30c from 35c. Management offered an update in late December on Kayelekera, with high-grade ore (600-900ppm) delivered to the mine for processing.

There is scope for the stock to be re-rated if the next six months of operations are managed without any hiccups, as evidenced by peers.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.08
If LOT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 52.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects investor interest in rare earths to rebound in 1H2026 amid growing supply-security concerns and supportive underlying fundamentals.

Ahead of Lynas Rare Earths' December quarter report on January 21, the broker expects mixed results. Sales are expected to be higher despite lower production, with 7% beat vs consensus expected.

Higher inventory drawdown and overall stronger realised prices are seen as drivers, with the broker expecting a beat on SR but a miss on zircon and rutile.

The broker updated forecasts to reflect marked-to-market December quarter mineral sands and rare earths prices, along with revised FX assumptions over the medium to long term. EPS revisions are minor.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.56 Difference: $1.44
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.96, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MND as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Monadelphous Group has had strong contract momentum since November, securing $835m of new EC and M&I work, Bell Potter highlights. This has lifted FY26 year-to-date awards to $1.4bn, with major wins from Rio Tinto in the Pilbara.

Given multi-year contract terms, the broker reckons this supports a positive revenue growth outlook through FY26-28. FY26 to-date wins annualise to $2.6bn, likely exceeding FY26 revenue growth guidance, the broker reckons.

FY27 EPS forecast upgraded by 12% and FY28 by 9%, and the broker highlights these are now ahead of consensus. 

Target rises to $33 from $24, driven by lower WACC. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.05 Difference: $3.95
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.82, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Macquarie Group to $210 from $200 and retains a Neutral rating. It's felt risk and reward are evenly balanced.

Upside stems from future data centre performance fees, improving capital markets activity, and continued market share gains in Australian retail banking, explains the broker.

Downside risks are thought to include rising competition in the Commodities and Global Markets division, unresolved green assets, and lagging diversification in private markets.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $207.15 Difference: $2.85
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $225.20, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

At first glance, the rise in US gas dispersion index of 40% y/y over 4Q2025 appears positive for Macquarie Group's commodities revenues. However, on further inspection, Morgan Stanley notes the group did not capitalise on similar conditions over the previous September quarter.

Rising competition and a more risk-off approach from Macquarie make the analyst cautious on the outlook for US commodities, while EU gas price levels and volatility retreated in the Dec quarter.

The broker forecasts 2H26 commodity revenues up 2% y/y and advance 3% in FY27, which meets consensus in FY26 and sits below by -3% in FY27.

Equal-weight remains. Target remains at $221. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $221.00 Current Price is $207.15 Difference: $13.85
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $225.20, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for National Australia Bank to $38 from $37.00 and maintains a Sell rating.

Among the majors, the broker's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $41.91 Difference: minus $3.91 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.84, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Neuren Pharmaceuticals' licensee partner Acadia expects global Daybue sales to reach US$700m by 2028, in line with Ord Minnett's forecast.

Growth is expected to be supported by approvals in the US, Canada and Israel, and an assumed EU approval. The broker reckons potential upside from Japan is not included in Acadia’s forecast

Neuren plans to launch the powder formulation, Daybue Stix this quarter, targeting patients deterred by the liquid version due to convenience or taste.

No change to forecasts. Buy rating and target price $30.50.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $20.47 Difference: $10.03
If NEU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.57, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NXG as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

The broker notes NexGen Energy is due for its second round of commission hearings between Feb 9-13 with approval expected in February and construction starting in 2H2026. Target price is raised to $19.30 on changes in U308 price forecast. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $16.70 Difference: $2.6
If NXG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has updated its uranium outlook for 2026 including the uranium deficit sliding to around 5Mlbs from 12Mlbs in 2025 largely due to higher production from Kazatomprom and restart producers.

The broker also anticipates higher contracting activity after two years of lower than expected contracting which should underpin rising U308 term prices, forecast at US$86.5/lb. Nuclear generation starts rose by 11.6GW in 2025 and the pipeline of reactors under construction stands at 73.

Some 6GW of capacity is expected to come to market in 2026.

Paladin Energy is due to report 2Q26 results on Jan 21, with Bell Potter expecting production of 1,056klbs versus consensus at 1,037klbs. Sales is forecast at  1,266klbs and an achieved price of US$63.3/lb with C1 cost of US$41.1/lb, well below consensus (US$51/lb).

Buy rating with a higher target of $12.50 from $11.35, with production at Langer Heinrich expected to stabilise. The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -69% for FY26 and -29% for FY27.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.84
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.01, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's global commodities team remains positive on global commodity-based equities, believing there's potential for long-lasting structural changes for the traditionally more challenged steel and aluminium segments.

The broker has upgraded its preference for copper, aluminium and lithium, citing favourable 2026 tailwinds and considers Australian diversified miners as attractively valued exposure to these tailwinds.

With around 70% of revenue generated from aluminium, South32 remains Overweight-rated with a circa 8% copper exposure.

BHP Group is preferred for exposure to copper at around 44% revenue and an attractive valuation.

For Rio Tinto, Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and a $129.50 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $146.66 Difference: minus $17.16 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.42, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners announced net profit after tax guidance of around $145m for 2025, which sits well above both Morgans and consensus forecasts due to robust performance fees across multiple investment strategies.

Second-half performance fees are flagged to be circa $130m against $42.4m in 1H2025, resulting in an upgrade in EPS forecasts by 52% for 2025 and 9% for 2026.

With around $221m in net cash the balance sheet remains robust.

Buy rating retained. Target lifts to $4.25 from $4.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.89
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's global commodities team remains positive on global commodity-based equities, believing there's potential for long-lasting structural changes for the traditionally more challenged steel and aluminium segments.

The broker has upgraded its preference for copper, aluminium and lithium, citing favourable 2026 tailwinds and considers Australian diversified miners as attractively valued exposure to these tailwinds.

With around 70% of revenue generated from aluminium, South32 remains Overweight rated with a circa 8% copper exposure.

BHP Group ((BHP)) is preferred for exposure to copper at around 44% revenue and attractive valuation.

Target price $3.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS' resources analysts are increasingly bullish on silver as a higher-beta play on the positive gold outlook. Portfolio diversification and speculative inflows are expected to support prices, along with market deficits and falling inventories

As a result, silver price forecasts are lifted by over 40% to average US$79/oz in 2026 and US$64/oz in 2027.

Higher silver prices significantly boost the value of South32’s Cannington mine, with EBITDA growth expected to accelerate to 38% and the asset valuation increasing 20% to US$1.5bn. Further upside is seen from mine-life optimisation or a potential partial/full divestment amid leadership transition.

Neutral. Target rises to $4.0 from $3.5 after 14% lifts to FY26 EPS forecast and 10% to FY27.

The report was published January 14.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.04
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Steadfast Group's 1H26 results on February 26, Macquarie expects FY26 guidance to remain unchanged. However, the broker sees risk of underlying downgrade, as the CFO transition and ongoing redundancies could mean restructuring costs are excluded from guidance.

The broker does not expect further CEO succession commentary but anticipates an update on the CFO appointment. 

Macquarie previously stated it estimates Steadfast's overall portfolio achieved 2.2% pricing growth in the December quarter. 

Neutral stays. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.90 following minor revisions to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Super Retail offered 1H26 trading update with sales growth of 4.2%, which met Morgans' and consensus expectations but weaker margins are weighing on profit before tax which were guided some -7% below the consensus outlook.

The broker downgrades EPS forecasts by -10.8% for FY26 and -9.7% for FY27, with an accompanying lowering of the target price to $17 from $19.35. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with the recent decline in the share price viewed as an opportunity.

In the Dec quarter new vehicle deliveries rose 3% y/y with 2H2025 volumes up 2.2% on the prior year but down -1.3% on the previous half.

The analyst views auto sector fundamentals as having stabilised for both volume and margins in 2025 and continues to envisage better conditions in 2026. Preferred exposures are Eagers Automotive ((APE)), ARB Corp ((ARB)) and Motorcycle Holdings ((MTO)).

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.66 Difference: $2.34
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's December quarter premium survey points to a rise in motor of 10% y/y and home up 3% y/y with reinsurance lower and higher yields, which is expected to underpin margins.

Recent CATs are viewed by the analyst as a headwind for insurers 1H26 dividends but should reinforce home pricing.

The analyst continues to prefer Suncorp Group over Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) on re-rating and capital options.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $22.25 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $5.24
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.54, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi sees more downside risks for Treasury Wine Estates following reports distributor RNDC may sell operations in seven states. RNDC is a wholesaler for the company's products in at least five of them, and Citi anticipates an impact as soon as 2H26.

The broker sees no immediate risk to 1H26 guidance issued in December, but cautions upside is limited after the 8% share price rise since mid-December.

Within the F&B sector, the broker's top pick is a2 Milk Co ((A2M) , followed by Endeavour Group ((EDV)).

Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target unchanged at $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.36 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.07, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.

The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.

The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.

Citi raises its target for Westpac to $39.00 from $38.50 and maintains a Neutral rating. 

Among the majors, the broker's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $38.28 Difference: $0.72
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.72, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WC8 as Buy (1) -

Wildcat Resources’ final RC drilling from the 2025 exploration program at the Bolt Cutter lithium discovery confirmed a large, open-ended mineralised system with multiple stacked pegmatite dykes. It supports its potential as a satellite operation to the Tabba Tabba lithium project, Shaw and Partners observes.

The discovery sits on granted mining leases with a Native Title Agreement in place, accelerating approvals and supporting a pathway to first production by FY28, thus capturing a lithium price recovery.

With strong growth potential and a bullish long-term lithium demand outlook driven by electric vehicles, AI data centres and energy storage, Bolt Cutter is set to be a key pillar of Wildcat’s development strategy.

Buy, High Risk retained and target unchanged at 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.25
If WC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources