Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Neutral (3) -

The company has produced a strong trading update and further capital expenditure plans highlight the strength of the outlook, in Credit Suisse's opinion.

Valuation is not stretched, the broker believes, but the protracted ACCC process is overhanging the stock. Nevertheless, operating conditions are considered robust and average yields should continue to trend higher.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.75 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.01
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

The company is due to report on its legal and capital structure review at the FY19 results in August 12. Credit Suisse expects it to commit to a legal restructure that is likely to create significantly higher debt capacity.

The broker raises the target to $6.00 from $5.55 and reiterates an Outperform rating. Credit Suisse envisages potential for around $2.0bn in buybacks over the next two years.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.48
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Inferred resources have grown to 5.0mt at 11.1g/t for 1.8m ounces of gold. Macquarie increases development assumptions to around 154,000 ounces per annum at an all-in sustainable cost of $820/oz.

Permits to access along strike are imminent. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.00 from $0.80.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.37
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Citi upgrades FY19 estimates for earnings per share because of strong equity markets and narrower credit spreads. Estimates are lifted by 31% for FY19.

However, with no clear end in sight to the disruption to institutional adviser networks, the broker retains a Neutral rating and $7.20 target.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $0.46
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DCN as Neutral (3) -

While the shares were up 30% following the release of the new life-of-mine plan, which is higher than expected, Citi maintains a Neutral/High Risk rating until there is confidence that the company can deliver on its plans.

The June quarter report could provide some clarity, the broker suggests. The company has planned for a -15% downgrade of contained gold reserves at Westralia and Jupiter. The reasons for this are still to be clarified. Target is $0.70.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.06
If DCN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

A funds under management update from Generation Development shows June Q sales were down but still the second best on record. The broker sees a flat FY19 result as a decent effort in a difficult market, with industry investment bond sales falling -15% in FY19 (March year-end) on the prior year.

Near term headwinds remain but management execution has been solid and the broker suggests a longer term growth story remains intact. Add retained, target rises to 83c from 82c.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.35
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Add (1) -

The Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility has approved a loan of up to $610m for Genex Power's K2-H project, which significantly de-risks funding, the broker notes.

The broker has rolled forward its valuation to FY20 and reduced its assumed interest rate on the NAIF debt to 2.5%.

Add (Speculative Buy) retained, target rises to 36c from 32c.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.11
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Hold (3) -

Ahead of Helloworld's result release, which management suggests is on track to meet guidance, the broker has dropped its valuation to the low end of that range to reflect weak consumer spending and a slowdown in corporate travel.

Hold retained, target falls to $5.27 from $5.85.

Target price is $5.27 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.62
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Accumulate (2) -

Press reports suggest China's Jangho and other private equity groups are looking over Healius. Ord Minnett believes the dependability of domestic health service earnings and the stability of government funding could be attractive to potential suitors.

The broker reduces earnings forecast to better reflect current market conditions and the government's policy plans. The potential for corporate activity leads to an Accumulate rating and increase in the target to $3.50 from $3.35.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.53
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the valuation is full, despite the exposure to generally favourable general insurance conditions. While the company is likely to exceed its catastrophe allowance in FY19, the broker doubts it would be by much.

This is likely to be more than offset by strong reserve releases as well as a positive impact from narrower credit spreads. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $8.20 from $8.05.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.86, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ICQ as Add (1) -

iCar enjoyed robust first half cash flow on strong used car revenues and increased prices, the broker notes. New car revenues were weak in the final quarter as launches were deferred due to elections in Thailand and Indonesia.

A slew of new car launches and events should lead to materially stronger revenue momentum in the second half, the broker suggests. Add retained, target rises to 32c from 31c.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.09
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse remains broadly positive about the company's UK operations, highlighting supportive industry conditions for advice/wealth software amid likely consolidation in advice that is aligned to the company's focus.

The stock has outperformed the ASX200 in the year to date, up 26.8%, but the broker concedes merit in both the supporters and detractors of the stock. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $14.05 from $13.30.

Target price is $14.05 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: $0.22
If IRE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.80, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Ahead of JB Hi-Fi's upcoming result the broker has rolled forward its valuation into FY20, leading to a target increase to $28.82 from $24.37.

The broker expects the company to report in line with the top end of guidance, and consensus, and for FY20 guidance to also match expectation.

JB Hi-Fi's growth profile is more modest as the company's growth phase matures, the broker notes, but there is scope for dividend upside post FY20. Hold retained.

Target price is $28.82 Current Price is $28.83 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.30, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

Citi recognises the valuation appeal in the stock and its leverage to growth in industry superannuation funds, but expects it to trade at a discount over the near term, given a number of ongoing issues.

The FY20 outlook is likely to be affected by elevated costs in the Australian funds administration business as well as hits to revenue from the automatic sweeping of less active super accounts.

Citi expects FY20 estimates for earnings per share to decline -9%. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.45 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $0.41
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 39.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a Buy rating because of the turnaround potential in the stock. The broker considers FY20 multiples are undemanding and represent a -35% discount to Australian retail peers.

Like-for-like sales momentum is expected to improve after a tough fourth quarter. Michael Hill appears to be facing headwinds from competitor store closures in Australia and Canada. The broker reduces the target to $0.56 from $0.63.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.05
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

The company reported FY19 revenue of $563.4m which is 2.5% ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. The improvement on expectations was delivered via better New Zealand sales and more favourable currency translation.

However, it was impacted by further retail margin deterioration. Management suggested the margin decline reflected a combination of company-driven inventory management, FX and competitive pressure.

Assessing the momentum heading into FY20 is more difficult, the broker assesses. Outperform rating maintained on valuation. Target is reduced to NZ$0.85 from NZ$0.90.

Current Price is $0.51. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

The trend continues to improve since a weak first quarter in FY19, Macquarie observes. The company will make a provision of $10-25m in FY19 to cover non-compliance with general retail industry awards in Australia.

Meanwhile, Macquarie expects the company to deliver on the key pillars of its business transformation strategy in FY20.

Coupled with an attractive yield the broker is prepared to back management and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is lowered to $0.80 from $0.85.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.29
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MHJ as Hold (3) -

Micheal Hill's sales momentum improved into year end, the broker notes, but at the cost of margins. Clearing ageing inventory, competitor clearance sales and forex are to blame. The discovery of staff underpayments will mean a one-off cost.

The broker can't see any real revenue drivers in the near term, but suggests the new CEO's cost-out progress could lead to upside over time. Hold retained, target falls to 57c from 60c.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.06
If MHJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Reduce (5) -

A new analyst has taken over Newcrest Mining coverage at Morgans, leading to a target price increase to $24.92 from $24.21. A Reduce rating is nevertheless retained given current share price strength, which limits further upside bar any further strength in the gold price.

Newcrest is heavily reliant on Cadia, the broker notes, as legacy mines wind down and new projects remain long term prospects.

Target price is $24.92 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: minus $7.08 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.12, suggesting downside of -21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Sell (5) -

Despite a sharp deterioration in fund flows across major platforms in the past year, the company's flows have remained relatively static.

UBS believes this indicates the majority of attrition across AMP ((AMP)) and the major banks is flowing to industry funds rather than specialty platform providers.

Hence, the contribution to growth in funds under administration continues to be modest. The broker maintains a Sell rating and $7.65 target.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: $0.04
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.10, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -

The Avanco acquisition has fallen short of low market expectations, Credit Suisse observes, although management believes the downgrade to contained metal still meets the investment case. Pedra Branca reserves and resources have been downgraded materially.

Antas has also been materially downgraded, which is the sole producing asset in this Brazilian suite of projects. Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating and $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

The company has outlined a smaller scale option for Pedra Branca, which will mean the project effectively replaces Antas in 2021/22.

The CentroGold prefeasibility study delivers higher gold production in the early years and Macquarie lifts its valuation of the project by 13%.

A smaller scale development of the copper assets has resulted in a -30% reduction to the broker's valuation for the Brazilian projects.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $11.20 from $11.50.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $1.43
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the updates for the resources at Antas and Pedra Branca are negative. CentroGold pre-feasibility is positive and exploration is continuing, although Morgan Stanley retains no value for the project in its base case.

Copper at Antas North resource has fallen -40% and the company plans to close the pit in 2021, earlier than the broker expected.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating and $10.90 target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $1.13
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Hold (3) -

Resource grades were lowered across all three of the company's Brazilian assets. The pre-feasibility study for CentroGold has smaller scope, although the overall value appears to Ord Minnett to have been preserved.

The Antas mine will close in 2021. The broker expects the market to be disappointed by the downgrades and challenging outlook for Antas. Hold rating and $10.50 target maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $0.73
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Buy (1) -

The company has updated on the Brazilian assets. UBS has been waiting for further details on development to refine its assessment. The update indicates that the economics of the Antas mine are worse than previously assessed.

The Pedra Branca mining concept is also smaller than previously anticipated. As a result of permit risks, long timelines to development and worse economics at Antas, the broker downgrades its valuation of the Brazilian assets to around $350m.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $11.30 from $12.00.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $1.53
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

Preliminary June quarter results reveal nickel-in-concentrate production in line with Macquarie's estimates. Copper production was -28% below estimates, largely because of lower grade and recoveries.

Executing on the development of Savannah North remains the key catalyst in FY20, in the broker's view. Outperform rating and $0.45 target maintained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.12
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Citi is attracted to the diversified operating model yet the combination of continuing outflows from JO Hambro funds, a slow rebound in performance fees and Brexit uncertainty leave the stock trading at a discount to valuation.

The broker reduces FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -0.3% and FY20 by -1.9%, to reflect the slow recovery in fund flows. Neutral rating maintained and the target is lowered to $8.00 from $8.75.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $0.6
If PDL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

There were -$2.4bn in outflows in the June quarter, mostly affected by the previously flagged net redemptions at Westpac ((WBC)). Morgan Stanley notes there was a cash institutional mandate win.

Overall, the broker believes the outcome is solid in the EU and UK divisions, where there are industry-wide pressures, and despite the known redemptions.

Morgan Stanley considers embedded growth options are not captured in the share price. Overweight rating. Target is $9.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $2.2
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Accumulate (2) -

The near-term outlook for Pendal is relatively benign, Ord Minnett suggests, although the stock has de-rated significantly, signalling there is value on offer.

Historically, JO Hambro has been the main driver of funds flows but has reported outflows from the UK business over the past seven quarters.

The broker believes the near-term outlook is likely to be driven by political uncertainty in the UK and potential acceleration in redemptions in Westpac-related legacy FUM.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.80 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $1.4
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDL as Neutral (3) -

Funds under management remained relatively flat over the June quarter, at $101bn, despite supportive markets, UBS observes. Nevertheless, operating costs continue to edge higher.

While management's medium-term strategic investment agenda is sound, the broker believes profit growth prospects are being constrained. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $7.35 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

WestConnex has announced the opening of the M4 on Saturday, July 13. Macquarie observes the revenue input is moderate as a majority of the trips are extensions.

The broker anticipates government forecasts will prove conservative, lifting confidence in the outlook, albeit the forecast for bonds will have a greater impact on the share price.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $15.77 from $15.48.

Target price is $15.77 Current Price is $14.91 Difference: $0.86
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.96, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

The company reported a 9% increase in saleable coal production in the June quarter. Strong run-of-mine production did not translate fully, resulting in higher coal inventory.

Citi tweaks price realisations for the forecast period and pushes out the Vickery commissioning by six months. This leads to upgrades to FY19 and FY20 estimates of 5% and 4%, respectively. Buy rating and $4.75 target retained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.92
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes a solid finish to operations in FY19. Narrabri exceeded the downgraded guidance comfortably.

The challenge for holders of the stock, as well as management, the broker asserts, is whether the equity market will continue to discount pure-play coal exposures, despite the strong free cash flow yields and balance sheet.

Outperform retained on valuation grounds, but a near-term catalyst to reach the target, reduced to $5.00 from $5.10, is considered more difficult to find.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $1.17
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Saleable coal production was lower than guidance and expectations for FY19, although a beat on run-of-mine coal production has allowed inventory to build. Macquarie expects this will be run down over the first half of FY20.

Given the buoyant metallurgical coal prices, the broker believes there is upside risk to the Maules Creek valuation, should it increase its metallurgical coal profile.

A delay in expansion projects is likely to provide scope for a special dividend at the half-year result. Outperform rating and $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.37
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

The June quarter was strong across the assets, Morgan Stanley observes. The broker envisages good value in the stock at current levels.

The company now expects a decision on Vickery in early 2020 and South Winchester JORC resources are expected later in the year.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and $5 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $1.17
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's June Q production beat the broker by 4%, suggesting operational issues appear to be under control, although some sales have shifted in FY20.

Coal price weakness has held the stock back recently, but the broker believes current dynamics are unsustainable and the price can track back towards US$80/t.

On that basis, the broker suggests now is a good time to accumulate. Target falls to $4.98 from $5.15, Add retained.

Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $1.15
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

UBS suspects the stock has sustained a relief rally, given the June quarter production report did not contain any new operating issues. Saleable production and sales were disappointing for the broker.

Price realisation was well ahead of expectations, nonetheless. UBS maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $5.10 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $1.27
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources