Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

In September, a2 Milk Co stepped up marketing activities to drive the new English Label, with new brand spokespersons. A major daigou event – one of the largest since the start of covid – was held in Australia, Credit Suisse reports.

During September, a2 Milk surpassed all other brands on the Baidu Search Index – a first-time observation since the broker started tracking (about 18 months).

Credit Suisse believes a2 Milk captured 3% industry volume share in FY22 and models that growing to 3.4% in FY23 in a declining market. No change to forecasts, Neutral and $5.25 target retained.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS remains constructive on lithium and notes Allkem is trading at an around -35% discount to the broker's valuation. The Buy rating is retained and the target rises to $18.70 from $18.60.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $14.49 Difference: $4.21
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.80, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has been impressed by the speed of ramp up at BHP Group's South Flank, with the project delivered on time and on budget and twice as fast as its Jimblebar ramp up.

BHP Group expects South Flank to sustainably achieve production of 80m tonnes annually within three years, which is in line with Macquarie's base case forecasts, although the company is yet to test ultimate capacity and identify bottlenecks. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $45.00 are retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $40.07 Difference: $4.93
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.52, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett found the first day of BHP Group's iron ore operations tour to focus on the company's operational advantages and reliability including having the lowest costs and capital expenditure and highest achieved prices of its WA peers. 

The broker highlighted while BHP Group reiterated production growth targets to 300m tonnes, and then 330m tonnes, further detail as to how this will be achieved was limited.

A steel briefing was more upbeat than expected, with the company anticipating a demand increase in the next year underpinned by China's property sector. 

The Hold rating and target price of $41.00 are retained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $40.07 Difference: $0.93
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.52, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics lresult in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. Short term iron ore and copper price forecasts are lowered, and near-term earnings risk is considered to be skewed to the downside.

A Neutral rating and $35.50 target are retained for BHP Group.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $40.07 Difference: minus $4.57 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.52, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its investment thesis for CommBank and retains its Underweight rating as current premium valuation multiples relative to peers are hard to justify.

With lower expectations, the broker sees greater upside risk to margin and earnings estimates for the other major banks.

The $83.50 target price is unchanged. Industry View. Attractive.

Target price is $83.50 Current Price is $94.79 Difference: minus $11.29 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.90, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Marking to market, Macquarie has updated its outlook for Computershare. With current bank bill swap rates and bond yield forecasts implying 7% and 34% upside to margin income forecasts through to FY25, Macquarie has lifted its estimates accordingly and ahead of consensus. 

The broker anticipates Computershare will deliver margin income of $555m. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $38.75 from $36.00.

Target price is $38.75 Current Price is $25.24 Difference: $13.51
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.20, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DEG as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance.

A Buy rating is maintained for De Grey Mining and the broker raises its target to $1.20 from $1.15 on upgraded pre-feasability study assumptions.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.11
If DEG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics lresult in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. The short term iron ore forecast is lowered, and near-term earnings risk is considered to be skewed to the downside.

After upgrading iron ore forecasts, UBS keeps its Neutral rating though lowers its target to $4.25 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.16
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

After a recent site visit at Evolution Mining's Canadian Red Lake operation, UBS expects FY23 will remain a reset year given the time and investment needed to unlock the strong value presented in the mine.

Four takeaways: Optimisation is complicated; the turnaround continues; the gold endowment is very strong (UBS expects the longer-term outlook for the gold price should improve); and FY23 guidance is conservative.

Separately, UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance.

The broker upgrades its rating for Evolution Mining to Buy from Neutral and lowers its target to $2.40 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.29
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

With Flight Centre Travel's share price declining -34% since May, Ord Minnett considers the stock to now represent fairer value and has upgraded its rating. 

The broker expects the decline to be driven by concern over slowing global growth on the company's Corporate and Leisure divisions, and the previously inflated valuation. 

Ord Minnett finds business travel demand to remain solid, and expects leisure demand will hold up relatively well depending on the extent of the ongoing economic squeeze. 

The rating is lifted to Hold from Sell and the target price of $14.26 is retained.

Target price is $14.26 Current Price is $14.60 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.52, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. Short term iron ore and copper price forecasts are lowered, and near-term earnings risk is considered to be skewed to the downside.

A Sell rating is retained for Fortescue Metals and the target falls to $14.30 from $15.80.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.02, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance though downgrades earnings forecasts across the board.

A Buy rating is maintained for Gold Road Resources and the broker raises its target to $1.81 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.81 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.44
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley foresees downside risk on margins for Insurance Australia Group.

Home pricing for the group was slightly negative in September quarter, when the broker's survey showed new business Home pricing had increased by around 11% across the industry.

The group's Motor pricing increased but lagged peers. The survey revealed a 15% increase in pricing for new business over the September quarter.

The Underweight rating and $3.90 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS remains constructive on lithium and notes IGO  is trading at an around -18% discount to the broker's valuation. The Buy rating is retained and the target rises to $16.15 from $16.00.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $14.66 Difference: $1.49
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Hold (3) -

Late last month, Iress lowered FY22 segment profit guidance by around -7% due to timing delays on new sales conversions in APAC and Mortgages, with this revenue expected to be pushed into FY23, notes Morgans.

While the broker is upbeat on several fronts and points to an attractive valuation, confidence needs to improve, after another downgrade to short-term expectations, before the Hold rating is upgraded. 

The target falls to $10.56 from $12.15.

Target price is $10.56 Current Price is $9.31 Difference: $1.25
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's investor trip to its Brazil assets highlighted the quality of its operations according to Macquarie. Following well interventions the Bauna field is producing 22,000 barrels per day, with drilling of two development wells to improve production at Patola next.

While Karoon Energy remains a top ASX Energy pick for Macquarie, the broker expects pursuit of a second oil asset remains a challenge for the company and anticipates it may need to look beyond Brazil. 

The Outperform rating and the target price increases to $2.90 from $2.55. 

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.91
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. Short term iron ore and copper price forecasts are lowered, and near-term earnings risk is considered to be skewed to the downside.

UBS remains constructive on lithium. The Buy rating is retained for Mineral Resources and the target rises to $83.30 from $83.00.

Target price is $83.30 Current Price is $69.74 Difference: $13.56
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.64, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance.

A Neutral rating is maintained for Newcrest Mining, though the broker lowers its target to $18.40 from $19.50.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $17.71 Difference: $0.69
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

At a UBS site visit at Northern Star Resources's Pogo, management reaffirmed it is heading into the optimisation phase, which should reduce all-in-sustaining costs into the guidance range, says the broker.

UBS expects production will be weighted to the second half of FY23 but adds guidance appears conservative, and has extended its forecast mine-life estimate by 3 years to 2035, believing nearby prospectivity to be high albeit untested.

Separately, UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance.

The broker retains its Buy rating for Northern Star Resources though lowers its target to $9.35 from $9.60.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $1.11
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

While Morgans lists a number positive for Orica including the best pricing power in years, a Hold rating is retained on valuation and cash flow uncertainty.

The company has completed its -$260m acquisition of Axis Mining Technology, which was funded via a $650m institutional placement and $41.1m share purchase plan.

The extra funds are to fund increased trade working capital requirements from supply chain disruption, explains Morgans.

As a result of the raising, the analyst has diluted its EPS forecast. The operating cashflow forecasts were also materially lowered given higher than expected trade working capital and prepayment requirements for increased inventory.

The Hold rating is maintained, while the target falls to $14.55 from $16.20.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: $1.16
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics lresult in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

Regarding OZ Minerals, UBS points out copper remains stuck between the worsening economic backdrop and potential supply growth and BHP Group's bid for the company highlights copper's scarcity.

The Neutral rating and target price of $26.50 are retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $26.50 Difference: $0
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.48, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS remains constructive on lithium though retains a Sell rating for Pilbara Minerals. The target price rises to $2.65 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: minus $2.46 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting downside of -28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. Short term iron ore and copper price forecasts are lowered, and near-term earnings risk is considered to be skewed to the downside.

A Neutral rating and $90.00 target are retained for Rio Tinto.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $95.97 Difference: minus $5.97 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.07, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics lresult in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession.

South32 remains UBS's top diversified pick on its commodity mix and the Buy rating is maintained. The target rises to $5.60 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $1.85
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics lresult in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession.

Regarding Sandfire Resources, UBS points out copper remains stuck between the worsening economic backdrop and potential supply growth, as evidenced by BHP Group's bid for OZ minerals, which highlights copper's scarcity.

The target price falls to $5.90 from $6.10.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.97
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers short term price forecasts for base metals and bulks. Changing supply and demand dynamics result in higher forecasts for lithium prices and higher longer-term price estimates for coal, aluminium, zinc and lead.

The broker points out prices for most commodities are still above cost support levels and do not yet fully 'price in' a recession. 

UBS is positive on the gold sector following recent underperformance.

A Buy rating is maintained for SSR Mining and the broker raises its target to $25.65 from $24.30.

Target price is $25.65 Current Price is $23.42 Difference: $2.23
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's quarterly survey reveals Suncorp Group continues to push through above-peer pricing in Home & Motor to offset inflation.

While a positive outcome, the analyst feels more confidence is needed around La Nina and the group's reserving and excess capital.

The broker's survey showed new business pricing for Home and Motor for the industry rose by around 11% and 15%, respectively.

Additionally, new business pricing for compulsory third party insurance remained broadly flat for QLD and NSW in the survey. With inflation rising, Morgan Stanley believes reserving risk is rising.

The Underweight rating and $10.20 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $10.32 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.11, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TCL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The latest traffic data for road networks both public and tolled in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane proved in line with the high levels in the calendar year to date and far above the covid-restricted levels during 2021, Credit Suisse reports.

The broker forecasts FY23 Sydney traffic in line with pre-covid highs, Melbourne at -3% below and Brisbane 2% above.

Taking into account a weaker Aussie dollar, and a higher cost of capital, Credit Suisse cuts its target to $12.90 from $13.00 but upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $0.15
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Tyro Payments' September total transaction value of $3.5bn implied 2% growth on August, and 63% growth on September 2021. First half total transaction value year-to-date is tracking 59% ahead of the previous comparable period.

The broker finds strong positive daily download trends of Tyro Payments' app a reflection of merchant acquisition and improved engagement between merchants and Tyro Payments. 

Ord Minnett considers increased engagement a positive for creating value across the company's ecosystems. The Accumulate rating and target price of $1.40 are retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.08
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources