Australian Broker Call
Produced and copyrighted by 
at www.fnarena.com
December 11, 2019
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $2.99
Credit Suisse rates CMA as Neutral (3) -
The company has acquired a Canberra office asset for $256m at what Credit Suisse believes is a tight 5.1% capitalisation rate. The acquisition has been partly funded by a placement and increases the weighting to Canberra to 16% from 5%.
The broker also notes the company has pulled the planned sale of 483-517 Kingsford Smith Drive, Hamilton, Qld, and, in isolation, this provides earnings upside.
FY20 guidance is unchanged. Neutral rating and $2.92 target maintained.
Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CMA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CMA as Neutral (3) -
The company has purchased an office building in New Acton Canberra for $256m funded by a placement and debt. UBS considers the acquisition logical as it improves geographic diversification and is marginally accretive.
The asset appears fully priced to the broker, notwithstanding solid annual rent reviews of 3.3% per annum. Nevertheless, UBS envisages more value in Dexus ((DXS)) on a relative basis and maintains a Neutral rating. Target rises to $3.02 from $2.82.
Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.03
If CMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.19
Ord Minnett rates INR as Buy (1) -
The company has announced a letter of intent for 60% of its annual requirement for sulphur supply from Shell. This is a key project consumable and the company's largest expense.
Ord Minnett welcomes the slump in sulphur prices over the last month and raises its valuation of the stock, taking the target to $0.38 from $0.36. Speculative Buy rating maintained.
Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.19
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 64.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.33
Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy (1) -
Lendlease has stopped work on two tunnel boring machines at the Melbourne Metro, its largest engineering project. Ord Minnett anticipates the company is close to effecting a sale of the engineering & services business and the stoppage has a number of potential implications.
The most likely outcome is that the sale concludes, albeit with a contingent liability. If the extent of the problem is worse than currently expected, the project could affect the sale of the engineering unit and result in an impairment.
Buy rating and $22.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.33 Difference: $4.17
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 141.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.0, implying annual growth of 59.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.5, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $54.23
Ord Minnett rates MFG as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -
All fund managers being reviewed by Ord Minnett generated solid absolute returns over the first half to the end of November. Flow momentum remains strong for Magellan Financial and the first half is on track to record the biggest retail inflow for a half year ever.
Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Sell and raises the target to $50.41 from $49.60.
Target price is $50.41 Current Price is $54.23 Difference: minus $3.82 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.37, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 214.50 cents and EPS of 209.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 234.70 cents and EPS of 250.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.6, implying annual growth of 12.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 221.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.37
UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -
UBS believes the capital raising of $62m will de-risk funding requirements to break-even, which is expected in the fourth quarter of FY21. The capital provides plenty of options to either accelerate the roll-out into existing geographies or expand into additional ones.
There is also room for any strategic investments should these arise. UBS believes Megaport will be a major beneficiary of the data generation over the next decade. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $11.55 from $11.30.
Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.37 Difference: $2.18
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.14, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $19.20
UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -
Premier Investments has refreshed its global roll-out strategy for Smiggle over recent years, with fewer stand-alone retail stores and more online and wholesale stores.
UBS is positive about the outlook for the global roll-out and assesses there is potential upside to medium-term forecasts in terms of margins and wholesale.
The business continues to execute well across all its brands and the broker maintains a Buy rating and $20.95 target.
Target price is $20.95 Current Price is $19.20 Difference: $1.75
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.56, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 92.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.6, implying annual growth of 35.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 104.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.98
Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -
With the recent rally in scrap prices, amid tight supply, as the Northern Hemisphere winter kicks in, Citi believes the company's FY20 guidance and consensus forecasts now hold upside risk.
Since the company's profit warning in late October Turkish import scrap prices have rallied 16% and US domestic scrap prices have jumped 23%. The company expects FY20 earnings (EBIT) of $20-50m, assuming prices hold steady.
Citi retains a Buy rating and $12.10 target.
Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.98 Difference: $1.12
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.09, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -90.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 159.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 64.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 750.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.89
Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -
Stockland is perceived to be an owner of lower-quality retail malls, which make up 40% of its earnings. While structurally bearish on retail, Morgan Stanley assesses the market has overlooked the steps the company has been taking to address the issues in its portfolio.
Hence, further downside in the form of downgrades or devaluation is likely to be more subdued vs peers. Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating is premised on a PE re-rating story as residential markets improve and FY20 being the trough year. Target is $5.50. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.61
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 180.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.3, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.27
Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -
The company has announced strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and customer acquisitions. Ord Minnett anticipates the next quarterly update could be a catalyst for the stock.
Over the four-day weekend total transaction value was US$11.3m, representing a 402% increase on the preceding corresponding period. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $3.40 target.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $1.13
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.19 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.48 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| CMA | CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT | $2.99 | Credit Suisse | 2.92 | 2.89 | 1.04% |
| UBS | 3.02 | 2.82 | 7.09% | |||
| INR | IONEER | $0.19 | Ord Minnett | 0.38 | 0.36 | 5.56% |
| MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | $54.23 | Ord Minnett | 50.41 | 49.60 | 1.63% |
| MP1 | MEGAPORT | $9.37 | UBS | 11.55 | 11.30 | 2.21% |
| PAC | PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP | $6.28 | Ord Minnett | 7.55 | 7.72 | -2.20% |
| PNI | PINNACLE INVESTMENT | $4.55 | Ord Minnett | 6.95 | 6.37 | 9.11% |
| PTM | PLATINUM | $4.24 | Ord Minnett | 3.75 | 3.53 | 6.23% |
Summaries
| CMA | CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.99 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.99 | ||
| INR | IONEER | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.19 |
| LLC | LENDLEASE | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $18.33 |
| MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $54.23 |
| MP1 | MEGAPORT | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.37 |
| PMV | PREMIER INVESTMENTS | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $19.20 |
| SGM | SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.98 |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.89 |
| SZL | SEZZLE INC | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.27 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 7 |
| 3. Hold | 3 |
Wednesday 11 December 2019
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
Latest News
| 1 |
The Market In Numbers – 23 Nov 20249:09 AM - Australia |
| 2 |
ASX Winners And Losers Of Today – 22-11-24Nov 22 2024 - Daily Market Reports |
| 3 |
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 22-11-2024Nov 22 2024 - Australia |
| 4 |
Next Week At A Glance – 25-29 Nov 2024Nov 22 2024 - Weekly Reports |
| 5 |
Weekly Top Ten News Stories – 22 November 2024Nov 22 2024 - Weekly Reports |