Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Ai-Media Technologies' September-quarter results broadly met Morgans expectations. Excluding one-off costs, the company remains free cash-flow positive. The broker retains an Add rating and $1.46 price target.

The analyst believes the share price should be supported by an on-market share buyback, which indicates management's confidence in the outlook. Morgans expects gross margin expansion to continue.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.37
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Refining improved for Ampol in the September quarter but retail fuel volume fell -16% year-on-year due to lockdowns. Hence a reopened December quarter is shaping up as a lot more promising, Credit Suisse notes.

Retail margins appear to be the main risk, with industry margins weakening in October.

Target rises to $29.42 from $28.72, Neutral retained.

Target price is $29.42 Current Price is $31.26 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie lowers its FY21 EPS forecasts for Ampol by -7% following a weaker September-quarter, which suffered from East coast lockdowns and a weaker refining performance. FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts rise 1% on higher forecast fuel margins.

Convenience Retail earnings (EBIT) fell -18% shy of the analyst's estimate due to lower in-store sales from mobility restrictions and lower fuel sales.

The broker is under research restriction and sets no target price or rating.

Current Price is $31.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Ampol's September-quarter trading update proved mixed, the convenience retail business falling shy of Morgan Stanley's estimates but in line with Viva's ((VEA)) recent guidance, while margins in the refining business rose without government assistance.

EPS forecasts fall 7% in FY22, are steady for FY22 and rise 3% for FY23 to reflect higher refining margins.

The broker suspects Ampol and Viva may be on verge of a refining up-cycle given recent strength in Asian refining margins, and upgrades refining margin estimates 8% for Ampol and 12% for Viva. 

Morgan Stanley also expects 5% EPS accretion in FY22 and 11% in FY23 from the Z Energy ((ZEL)) acquisition. Overweight rating and $35 target price retained. 

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.26 Difference: $3.74
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's September-quarter trading update was below UBS estimates largely because of lower refining. The broker expects earnings will improve as refining margins recover and travel restrictions ease.

The broker assesses Ampol is a cheaper exposure to the fuel recovery theme. UBS reduces 2021 estimates by -8%, on the expectations the company will not receive the fuel security payment in 2021. A slower recovery in convenience retail is also anticipated.

Buy rating and $34.50 target maintained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $31.26 Difference: $3.24
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.26, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

Supply chain constraints and lower advertising demand is expected to impact Appen's advertising projects which contributed roughly 20% of revenue in the first half.

On the positive side, Citi believes the rebuilding of ad targeting by Facebook will aid Appen.

The broker believes the customer expenditure on R&D is more important than Appen accelerating its expenditure on AI and machine learning, and notes Facebook has guided to 30% growth in operating expenditure and 70% in capital expenditure in FY22.

Buy rating and $17.10 target retained.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $11.10 Difference: $6
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.35, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -

Morgans feels the -10% share price decline in reaction to Aurizon Holdings' acquisition of One Rail for -$2.35bn is overdone.

The group plans to divest One Rail’s East Coast Rail via a trade sale or demerger but the analyst is not confident of an attractive exit price.

Management plans to reduce the dividend payout from 100% towards the bottom end of its 70-100% policy range for one to two years to support credit metrics. As a result of this, and the removal of assumed buybacks, the broker lowers its target price to $3.73 from $4.14.

Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.28
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BWX as Outperform (1) -

Following a period of research restriction, Macquarie reinstates its Outperform rating and sets a $6 (up from $5.40) price target for BWX. Forecasts now incorporate the Go-To acquisition and the recent FY21 results.

The analyst expects the acquisition to be double-digit EPS accretive post-synergies on a FY21 pro forma basis. It's also thought offshore macro trends are supportive, as are first-half indications based on a recent profit upgrade by Australian Pharmaceuticals Industries ((API)).

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $1.34
If BWX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Crown Resorts avoided losing its Melbourne licence as Credit Suisse expected, but it is not out of the woods. It is likely Packer will be a seller of his 36% stake, by either spreading the stock around insitutions or putting the company in play.

But who might buy? Wynn Resorts and Melco can no longer derive synergies from VIPs, the broker notes, US iGaming is attracting all the investment right now, and Austrac is still investigating the other casinos.

The broker considers the stock fair value here. Neutral and $9.80 target retained.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $10.40 target price after the announcement that Crown Resorts can keep its Crown Melbourne casino licence (it is on probation for two years). It's thought domestic trading volumes may be affected by potential regulatory reforms.

The analyst is not ruling out value-creation opportunities by management, including potential capital management. In terms of M&A, there's considered a chance Star Entertainment Group ((SGR)) may re-assess a merger proposal, now there is greater regulatory certainty.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWN as Buy (1) -

The Victorian Royal Commission has found Crown Resorts is unsuitable to hold the Melbourne licence, which did not surprise Ord Minnett given the many significant issues that were revealed. But the company was placed on two years' probation and keeps its licence for now.

The broker's positive view of the stock is based on the business continuing trading.

The stock has experienced a significant de-rating throughout the inquiry period and is still trading at a discount to the broker's valuation, both historically and in regard to the impact of regulatory oversight that is required for the next two years.

The Buy rating and target price of $15.00 are retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: $4.5
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its FY22 catastrophe costs for Suncorp ((SUN)) in an insurance sector review and finds the insurer ahead of budget. 

Given the forecast La Nina summer, the broker expects Suncorp and IAG will exceed budgets and that earnings uncertainty could raise the cost of capital (the broker finds IAG particularly vulnerable in this respect), and the price of IAG's and QBE's ((QBE)) January reinsurance renewals. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie increases its FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts for Incitec Pivot by 35% and 2%, as a result of higher forecast ammonia prices. This comes as Tampa US ammonia settles up US$160/t to US$825/t, cost and freight, for November, the second highest level on record.

The analyst points out the company's share price is incorporating minimal benefit from current strength in fertilser pricing above long-term averages.The broker raises its target price to $3.57 from $3.15 and keeps its Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.57 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.51
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LGL as Buy (1) -

Lynch Group continues to be affected by freight costs and disruptions to its imported flower volumes, which are about half of annual supply. While air freight is likely to mean fewer delays and quality problems, it is more expensive.

Air freight is also expected to improve into Australia as international borders open in November. Citi observes this will affect margins in the first half as freight constitutes about 25% to 30% of imported flower costs. Buy rating and $4.50 target maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $1.09
If LGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights the steep discount for iron-ore price realisations in the September quarter. The broker acknowledges sentiment has been weaker on the stock because of falling iron-ore prices but believes a policy response from China will create a floor.

Earnings for lithium are expected to recover within a year thanks to better pricing for Mount Marion spodumene.

The company has also announced the re-start of the Wodgina spodumene mine from the September quarter of 2022. Mineral Resources is also making progress on Ashburton.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $55 from $60.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: $15.11
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.75, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Stronger September-quarter production from Mineral Resources was offset by lower shipment prices and considerably weaker realised iron-ore prices, summarises Macquarie. As a result, the broker lowers FY22 and FY23 earnings estimates by -37% and -10%.

The broker lowers its target price to $72 from $75 and retains its Outperform rating. From FY23, lithium is expected to be a larger earnings segment, now that the Wodgina re-start is due within a year.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: $32.11
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.75, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Underweight (5) -

Mineral Resources FY22 trading update failed to impress Morgan Stanley as iron-ore volumes softened and price realisation proved blurry.

Lithium volumes fell although prices improved.

The broker remains concerned about the heavy capital expenditure on low-grade ore projects on spot realisation and retains an Underweight rating and $41 target price.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: $1.11
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.75, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

September-quarter production was weaker than Ord Minnett expected. The achieved iron-ore price of US$78/t was 48% of the benchmark, affected by negative provisional-pricing adjustments and price volatility.

Sales at Mount Marion were severely affected by delays to shipments although achieved pricing was slightly better, the broker notes.

Ord Minnett suspects the relatively weak outlook for Chinese steel is likely to weigh and retains a Hold rating, reducing the target to $47 from $50.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $39.89 Difference: $7.11
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.75, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Orica to Overweight from Equal Weight, anticipating the new managing director's strategy has what it takes to drive a period of outperformance.

The broker also spies a recovery in demand, allowing the company to capitalise on a "favourable industry structure" and expects the company will introduce a cost-reduction program at its November results and will soon introduce new technology.

Equal-weight rating is retained and the target price is lowered to $12.60 from $13.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $15.20 Difference: $3.4
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.62, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as No Rating (-1) -

Oil Search's September-quarter report outpaced Macquarie's forecast, production landing 4.5% ahead of the broker's estimate.
After maintenance in the 2Q, PNG LNG exhibited an improved run-rate during the 3Q.

Management lowered the 2021 capex estimate by more than -20%, driven by a deferral of the final investment decision (FID) for Alaska and covid-restricted production expenditure in PNG.

Due to research restrictions Macquarie cannot advise on either a target price or rating for Oil Search at present.

Current Price is $4.42. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Equal-weight (3) -

Oil Search's September-quarter production figures missed Morgan Stanley's estimates.

Management tightens production guidance and lowers capital expenditure to reflect poorer mobility into PNG thanks to covid.

EPS forecasts are downgraded -9%, -2% and -2% for FY22, FY23 and FY24 to reflect weaker revenue and flow-on impacts to future years.

Equal Weight and $5.50 target price retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $1.08
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OSH as Add (1) -

Oil Search's September-quarter sales revenue proved a slight beat on Morgans' estimate and there were few surprises operationally. Only a few hurdles remain before a merger with Santos ((STO)) though should it not occur, the analyst expects a short-term fall in the share price.

Management narrowed 2021 production guidance to 26-28mmboe from 25.5-28.5mmboe. The analyst highlights "impressive" volumes from PNG LNG, which had been previously flagged via Santos, the joint-venture partner.

Add rating is maintained. Target price increases to $4.90 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.48
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Oil Search's growth projects are on track and full-year guidance appears achievable, although Ord Minnett notes this could be the last quarterly report by the company. The proposed merger with Santos ((STO)) is expected to be completed by year-end.

The broker is positive, as both stocks are trading below valuation, and retains a Buy rating. Target price eases to $5.15 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.73
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Oil Search's September-quarter production was in line with UBS estimates while realised prices were marginally below. The highlight of the update, in the broker's view, was the lower 2021 capital-expenditure guidance after FID on Alaska was deferred into 2022 and covid restrictions affected PNG contractor mobility.

On an implied oil price of US$58/bbl, UBS maintains a Buy rating and $5 target price and expects the stock will trade in a tight spread to the scrip ratio with Santos ((STO)), ahead of the completed merger.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.58
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OTW as Hold (3) -

There has been an unsolicited, non-binding indicative offer from Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) to acquire all of the shares of Over The Wire Holdings by way of a scheme of arrangement for $5.75 per share. Accordingly, Morgans raises its target price to $5.75 from $4.60.

Given the company has greater than 90% recurring revenue and more than 96% revenue retention, the analyst feels it's unlikely due diligence will change the suitor's plans. Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.3
If OTW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGL as Neutral (3) -

Prospa Group's September-quarter trading update revealed momentum in originations (up 62%). Underlying expenses declined -11.3% sequentially which, combined with revenue growth of 13%, shows significant operating leverage, Macquarie notes.

The broker is looking for sustained cash generation going forward to change its view and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $1.07 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.09
If PGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals has finalised its joint venture with POSCO to construct the lithium hydroxide facility in South Korea. Macquarie believes this is a positive development which will underpin the expansion of Pilgangoora.

At full production, the 43,000tpa lithium hydroxide plant is expected to consume 315,000tpa of chemical-grade spodumene. Pilbara Minerals will hold an initial 18% interest in the venture.

The company has also completed its third sale on the battery material exchange platform for a cargo of 10,000dmt of 5.5% lithium-grade spodumene to be delivered in February 2022.

Outperform rating and $2.80 target price retained. 

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.54
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Pilbara Minerals has completed a joint venture with POSCO for the development of the downstream lithium chemicals facility in South Korea.

This provides more diversified exposure to lithium for the company, Ord Minnett asserts, while the results of the third BMX auction achieved a strong price.

The broker has reduced the forecast peak rate of production from Pilgangoora to 1mtpa as there has been no update on the stage 2 expansion. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings upgraded first-half pre-tax profit guidance at its annual general meeting, thanks to a stronger-than-expected contribution from Queensland, the reopening of NSW and a rise in the September order bank in both NSW and Qld.

Morgan Stanley suspects this may position the company to outpace the broker's estimates.

While supply uncertainty hovers, the broker expects this should ease in the coming June half.

Overweight rating and 4.60 target price retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $1.45
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its FY22 catastrophe costs for Suncorp ((SUN)) in an insurance sector review and finds the insurer ahead of budget. 

Given the forecast La Nina summer, the broker expects Suncorp and IAG ((IAG)) will exceed budgets and that earnings uncertainty could raise the cost of capital (the broker finds IAG particularly vulnerable in this respect), and the price of IAG's and QBE's January reinsurance renewals. 

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $1.99
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources September-quarter production missed Citi's forecasts after a slower start to FY22 affected  operations at Duketon. Costs rose as lower production and labour shortages emerged.

Duketon North production fell -26% in the quarter to 14,200 ounces and the head grade was reduced because of a variation against plan. Garden Well production fell -24%. Citi retains a Neutral/High Risk rating and a target of $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.56
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 52.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' September-quarter production was -10% below forecast. Reduced availability of equipment, spare parts and skilled labour impeded material movement at both Garden Well and Tropicana, Credit Suisse notes.

Negative grade variations also impacted, and these are expected to continue into this quarter. The Graden Well underground project is progressing well, but management highlighted more labour risk when vaccines become mandatory from December 31.

Outperform and $3.60 target nevertheless retained.
 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $1.46
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 52.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

The first quarter was weak, with production -13% below Macquarie's expectations. The company has flagged unplanned geotechnical issues and a planned mill shutdown affected Duketon, along with labour and part shortages. Shortages weighed on Tropicana as well.

FY22 guidance for 460-515,000 ounces at AISC of $12 90-13 65/oz is maintained. The broker believes approvals at McPhillamys present the next catalyst. Outperform rating and $2.50 target maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.36
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 52.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide reported sales up 8.3% and earnings 3.1% in the September quarter but -100-150 basis point margin compression will persist due to cost pressures including raw materials, shipping, freight and energy, Credit Suisse notes.

Further price increases are expected to recover costs in the March quarter. The broker was surprised by the announced EZ-FLO acquisition, but it is does expend scope and the outlook for the compnay appears positive.

On the back of this and the LCL acquisition, target rises to $7.00 from $6.40. Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $1.2
If RWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The broker assesses trading is solid and the acquisition of EZ-FLO is strategically sensible as it adds diversity to the business. There is only a 10% overlap with the company's products which provides the opportunity for cost and revenue synergies.

The accompanying trading update was below expectations as a reconfiguration of inventory in American retail resulted in first quarter revenue growth of just 4%. Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $5.95 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.75
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley views Reliance Worldwide Corp's purchase of EZ-Flow as a good strategic fit but, given it was struck on a full multiple, says serious synergies would be needed to be extracted before being considered attractive.

The broker does spy cross-selling and/or range expansion opportunities and a potential for 10% accretion in the second year.

Reliance's September-quarter trading update broadly met the broker, revenue slightly outpacing, causing the broker to tinker with FY22 earnings forecasts. Morgan Stanley notes the acquisition could result in a 6% upgrade to FY22 earnings and a 10% and 11% upgrade for FY23 and FY24.

Equal-weight rating and $6 target price retained. 

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.8
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Add (1) -

Despite strong underlying demand in all regions, the September-quarter trading update from Reliance Worldwide Corp was slightly weaker than Morgans expected. Supply chain issues are thought to have held-back sales.

Separately, the company announced the acquisition of EZ-FLO for -US$325m in a deal expected to be 8% and 13% EPS accretive in FY22 and FY23, estimates the analyst. EZ-FLO is the number one major appliance connector, manufacturer and distributor in the US.

The broker raises its target price to $6.63 from $6.50 and retains its Add rating.

Target price is $6.63 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $1.43
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Reliance Worldwide achieved growth in all geographies in the September quarter while margins were affected by rising commodity prices and higher shipping costs.

Ord Minnett remains confident there will be further earnings growth, noting the acquisition of EZ-FLO, a manufacturer and distributor of plumbing supplies, is expected to be accretive.

The broker observes the acquisition is consistent with the company's strategy of adding complementary products to sell through existing distribution channels and upgrades estimates for FY22 and FY23 by 6% and 9%, respectively.

Buy retained. Target is raised to $7.40 from $7.00.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $2.2
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Despite the lockdowns, Macquarie notes sales activity is strong and the company continues to win accounts. The NSW government contract has been retained with increased share. The order pipeline in New Zealand is also at record levels.

The company highlights the LeasePlan integration is progressing well. There are supply chain constraints and this is evident because the order pipeline is growing as a majority of deliveries get directed to back orders.

On the back of valuation support and underlying momentum, Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is unchanged at $2.98.

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.31
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

SG Fleet's September-quarter qualitative update reveals strong demand and a solid pipeline (nearly double that at June 30).

Customer numbers rose across fleet, novated and UK businesses, placing SGF in a good position when fleets are refreshed in the medium term, says Morgan Stanley.

The LeasePlan integration is outpacing forecasts.

Management provides no specific trading update or guidance and Morgan Stanley spies supply challenges, which it expects will ease in the June quarter.

Overweight rating and $3.60 target price retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.93
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

As a result of elevated volumes and a recovery in ferrous scrap prices UBS expects SIMS' earnings will rise in the first half and upgrades EBIT estimates by 4%, to $340m.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral to reflect the earnings changes and weakness in the share price since the FY21 result. Target is raised to $17.80 from $17.30.

The broker highlights management has been proactive in positioning the business as a high-grade processor of scrap which should benefit from a further tightening in quality requirements.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $14.91 Difference: $2.89
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

The implications for Star Entertainment of the Victorian Royal Commission inquiry into Crown Resorts ((CWN)) may be negative for sentiment yet Ord Minnett considers its misconduct is highly unlikely to have been as bad as that of Crown.

Therefore, the likelihood of an adverse outcome from the NSW public inquiry that affects trading is considered low.

The broker retains an Accumulate rating with a $4.40 target.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.79
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

In the company's update, it is evident hazard claims are already half of the full-year allowance yet, at this stage, Macquarie retains a hazards estimate in line with the company's $980m allowance. The broker accepts the downside risk to earnings is growing.

While the hazard losses have increased, none of the events have reached the maximum event retention of $250m. The broker retains a preference for Suncorp Group in the general insurance sector and an Outperform rating. Target is unchanged at $14.30.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: $2.21
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates its FY22 catastrophe costs for Suncorp in an insurance sector review and finds them ahead of budget.

Given the forecast La Nina summer, the broker expects Suncorp and IAG ((IAG)) will exceed budgets and that earnings uncertainty could raise the cost of capital (the broker finds IAG particularly vulnerable in this respect), and the price of IAG's and QBE's ((QBE)) January reinsurance renewals. 

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Morgans sees limited claims upside and leaves FY22 forecasts unchanged after Suncorp Group released its claims update for the first four months of FY22. Moreover, the group is considered to have a very strong reinsurance program in place for FY22.

With shares trading close to the broker's valuation, a Hold rating and $12.85 target are retained.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: $0.76
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

The first few months of FY22 have been elevated in terms of natural perils, which Ord Minnett observes will increase the risk that Suncorp Group breaches its allowances.

Other factors may act as an offset, including the benefits of lockdown and business interruption insurance releases.

Suncorp has flagged costs to date are $382-492m compared with the tight allowance of $980m, which means 45% of its annual natural hazard allowance has been used so far. Ord Minnett considers it too early to change forecasts and retains a Hold rating and $14.21 target.

Target price is $14.21 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: $2.12
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp has updated on natural hazard claims for the period since July reporting a financial impact of $382-492m in net claims costs to date. UBS notes this is running higher than the first-half allowance, despite two months of exposure remaining.

The broker suggests the loss will add heat to the ongoing debate about the adequacy of natural peril allowances, particularly as July to October is the seasonally calmer period. Buy rating and $13.85 target maintained.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: $1.76
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts and retains its Add rating and $1.87 target price after Volpara Health Technologies reported a "solid" 2Q result. In a traditionally weaker period, the company experienced record cash receipts.

The analyst feels management is being conservative when stating things are on-track to meet full-year revenue guidance.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.61
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Westpac Banking Corporation to report lower-than-guided margins at the FY21 result as mortgage competition, switching, strong housing-loan growth and weaker treasury income bite.

The broker views Westpac as being at a fork in the road, and expects higher costs may well be outweighed by other benefits next year as sustained mortgage improvement, stabilisation of business banking, the buyback, cost reduction and continued dividend recovery alleviate a modest easing of margins.

Earnings and dividend forecasts are altered.

Overweight rating retained. Target price $28.90. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $29.80 Current Price is $25.79 Difference: $4.01
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.47, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources