Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

AGL Energy's FY24 underlying profit was ahead of market expectations but in line with Ord Minnett’s forecast.

The performance was buoyed by improved electricity prices, particularly in May and June, greater thermal power plant reliability, and a nine-month contribution from the Torrens Island battery in South Australia.

An unfranked final dividend of 35c modestly beat estimates. Guidance for FY25 underlying profit surprised to the upside, coming in
well above prior estimates, while AGL also forecasts higher electricity prices in FY26 on FY25.

Target rises to $13.70 from $11.10, upgrade to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $11.57 Difference: $2.13
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.22, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the latest statistics for June as "less bad" than expected for Air New Zealand.

In June, capacity rose 23% on the previous corresponding period but remains -9% below pre-covid levels. 

Macquarie believes the company will report FY24 earnings at the upper end of guidance, but Air New Zealand remains loss-making at the pre-tax level.

EPS forecasts are adjusted by 6.6% and -9.6% for FY24/FY25. The broker thinks it is too early for management to provide FY25 guidance because of market uncertainty.

Target price moves to NZ72c from NZ75c.

Outperform unchanged.

Current Price is $0.51. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

In an initial assessment of today's FY24 release by Amcor, UBS  highlights the company has returned to volume growth in 4Q. It did assist with delivering an in line FY24 EPS result.

FY25 guidance points to sustained volume recovery. UBS believes management's expectation for volume recovery in FY25 should help underpin 3-8% EPS growth with market consensus currently positioned for 5% EPS growth.

Neutral.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APZ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses a "strong" FY24 result for Aspen Group and management upgraded FY25 EPS guidance to 15.2cpu from the prior 14.5-15cpu range.

These outcomes reinforce the broker's view of Aspen as the top pick under coverage within the broader REIT and real estate operator space. Aspen has delivered 20% EPS growth over the last five years, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target rises to $2.40 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.27
If APZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the FY25 guidance for Arena REIT was 3% better than anticipated with July reaping positive hedging and transactions.

Notably, the highlight was additional funding due to the Federal Government's 15% wage increase in the early learning sector. 

The broker notes daily fee increases will be capped at 4.4% in the year ahead, leading to better profitability for operators, with flow on impacts to tenant covenants and rental growth in the medium term.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts by 0.4% and 1.6% in FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price advances 3% to $4.15 with an unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.09
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Arena REIT had pre-announced its FY24 key numbers so UBS has seen no surprises in the FY24 release. Market rent reviews of 7.7% is considered a positive.

Portfolio occupancy is unchanged at 99.7%. The REIT still has -$139m of capex outstanding on development pipeline, on a total of 21 projects.

FY25 DPS guidance of 18.25c (pre-announced) compares to UBS's forecast of 18.2c and consensus at 18.1c.

Neutral. Target $4.05.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

Judging from UBS's initial assessment, today's FY24 release by the ASX revealed a "small miss" on earnings and the dividend, though FY25 guidance has been reaffirmed after recent Investor Day downgrades.

Relative to its own forecasts, the broker states the revenue miss was largely due to listings and futures fee rates. FY25 opex and capex guidance has been reaffirmed.

Sell.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $64.00 Difference: minus $9 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AW1 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners only initiated coverage on American West Metals with a Buy, High Risk rating earlier this month.

The company released assay results from the summer drill program at its Storm Copper project with the broker commenting further
confidence has been provided to the existing Resource as well as extending.

Buy. 32c target.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.185
If AW1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank reported FY24 earnings which met Citi and consensus forecasts,

The analyst commends management on meeting market expectations even with a 2H24 decline in cash earnings from 1H24.

Excellent execution in pricing and growing lending/deposit markets boosted the net interest margin to 2%. The result, observes Citi, is higher and sooner than anticipated.

The analyst believes the deterioration in the mortgage loans taken out between FY22-FY24 is a surprise against a robust employment market, with some moving to 30-plus day arrears before a 6-12 months had passed.

In context, this is twice FY17-FY22 levels at the same stage, the analyst stresses and is relevant if macro conditions deteriorate.

Sell rating retained. Target price revised to $91.50 from $85.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $134.90 Difference: minus $43.4 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $99.48, suggesting downside of -27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Centuria Office REIT's FY24 funds from operations (FFO) were in line with management guidance but FY25 guidance of 11.8cpu materially missed the 13.5cpu forecast by consensus. The Office category continues to be a challenging asset class, note the analysts.

The broker attributes the FY25 miss to increased downtime on vacant space and the dilutive impact from $139m of divestments.

Occupancy has decreased to 92.5% from 96.2% in the 1H of FY24, notes Morgan Stanley.

Underweight. Target is $1.40. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.18
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Sell (5) -

Cochlear reported FY24 earnings at the low end of guidance and FY25 guidance came in -5% below consensus estimates at the midpoint, according to Citi.

In FY25, management expects 10% implant unit growth against 9% in FY24 which meets the longer-term targets. Emerging markets experienced weakness, the analyst highlights, due to a lack of tenders.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -7%, -5% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Sell rating unchanged, as the valuation is viewed as above the historical average. Target price lowered to $255 from $265.

Target price is $255.00 Current Price is $313.00 Difference: minus $58 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $277.10, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Cochlear reported weaker than expected FY24 results and a lower-than-anticipated FY25 guidance of 5%-11% net profit growth, Macquarie notes, with capacity constraints reported as problematic.

Unit sales slipped in emerging markets in 2H24, leading to an overall decline despite developed markets unit sales advancing.

In FY25, the broker highlights unit sale guidance is in line with expectations, while services growth is anticipated to slow, and surgical capacity is constrained.

Macquarie revises EPS forecasts by -8% for FY25/FY26 with a lower target price of $283 from $300. Underweight rating unchanged.

Target price is $283.00 Current Price is $313.00 Difference: minus $30 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $277.10, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COH as Hold (3) -

Cochlear's FY24 results were mixed, Morgans suggests, with net profit below market expectations at the low end of guidance, but with sales growth across all segments expanding.

Cochlear Implants (CI) slowed on lower Emerging Market tenders offsetting strong Development Market growth, although favourable product mix supported sales, while Services moderated.

Management is confident CI volumes will revert “over time”, given the patients are still there, as is funding, but did flag audiological and surgical capacity constraints in some key countries that it is monitoring closely.

Given uncertainties around audiological/surgical CI capacity, a slowing upgrade cycle, and margin headwinds, strong profitable growth is limited and believed more than reflected in the current multiple. Hold retained, target increases to $300.02 from $290.45.

Target price is $300.02 Current Price is $313.00 Difference: minus $12.98 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $277.10, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

Cochlear's FY24 proved in line but UBS highlights FY25 guidance wasn't quite what the market had expected. The broker believes margin disappointment is to blame.

Cochlear implant unit growth is forecast at 10%, with slowing growth in services but stronger growth in acoustics. Gross margin will fall by -50bps due to lower overhead recoveries in the company's new plant in Chengdu, China.

UBS believes underlying net profit guidance is for $410-430m, implying 6-11% growth, which is -7% below consensus at the mid point.

Sell. Target $270.

Target price is $270.00 Current Price is $313.00 Difference: minus $43 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $277.10, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi takes an early look at Charter Hall Retail REIT's FY24 result, noting operating EPS was in line with guidance and consensus. The FY24 dividend was 27.4cpu.

The broker highlights like-for-like net property income (NPI) growth of 3.6%, with shopping centre NPI growth of 3.2% and net lease retail growth of 5.5%.

While FY25 guidance of 25.4cpu missed forecasts by Citi and consensus for 27.4cpu and 27.7cpu, respectively, a zero-cost hedge restructure effectively increases FY25 cost of debt in the short-term but provides 86% hedging into FY26.

Such a smoothing of finance costs is prudent, in the broker's opinion, given ongoing strong underlying like-for-like rental growth.

Buy. Target $4.00.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.46
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

Judging from UBS's early commentary, Charter Hall Retail REIT's FY24 is in line, but FY25 guidance falls short by some -8% due to the REIT's hedge restructure.

Portfolio metrics are tracking well, says the broker. The analysts state they will seek to understand why FY25 DPS is in line with FY24 (24.7c) as a payout ratio range of 90-95% is typically guided (FY25 implies the ratio is close to 97%).

Neutral.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.14
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Upon first assessment, it appears Domain Holdings Australia's FY24 release didn't quite meet expectations, but Citi analysts don't seem worried, signalling weaker revenue has been ofsett via lower costs.

Even though EBITDA benefited from restructuring costs taken below the line, the $137m reported still fell short of forecasts by -1%-2%.

Agent services revenue continue to decline, the broker highlights, and one-off costs continue to feature too. Management's guidance for listings is better than the forecast for flat growth in listings guided by competitor REA Group ((REA)), Citi points out.

The broker is prepared to take a positive view post today's update, even though the FY24 performance wasn't quite up there.

Buy. Target $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.31
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response, Macquarie believes FY24 EBITDA is in line but net profit falls short of expectations due to higher D&A and net interest.

Management's cost guidance for FY25 might force consensus forecasts down, the broker suggests. In addition, assumptions to underpin stable margins are achievable, says the broker, but leave little room for error.

Listings are growing. If this continues throughout FY25 Macquarie can see a catalyst for further share price upside. Neutral. Target $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.21
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Overall, comments UBS in a quick response, Domain Holdings Australia's H2 performance fell a bit short of expectations, including at the top line.

It appears also listings volume growth came in better in 2H24, but still softer versus REA Group ((REA)) and controllable yield was softer.

Management's outlook of “like-for-like” listings 4% yoy in July (which strips out 2 extra working days) is tracking slightly ahead of REA's 2% growth, suggesting to the analysts  Domain is potentially regaining some lost share in early FY25.

Midpoint of cost guidance high single to low double digit growth in FY25 appears to be in line with consensus, as is commentary around “stable” EBITDA margins in FY25. Neutral.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.51
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXI as Add (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT's FY24 result was in line with upgraded guidance with rental growth helping to offset loss of income from asset sales. Occupancy was strong at over 99%, Morgans notes.

The broker expects any upside to FY25 guidance will relate to sooner than forecast leasing outcomes at the Moorebank development which is due to complete in Dec-24.

The balance sheet remains solid, ensuring there is capacity to complete the committed development pipeline which will enhance future rental growth, Morgans notes. Asset sales are also likely to be considered.

Target dips to $3.16 from $3.20, Add retained.

Target price is $3.16 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.3
If DXI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes Fortescue's share price has fallen -38% in the last six months, versus -14%/-12% for BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)), respectively.

Citi is cautious on iron ore pricing for the 2H2024 but a consensus iron ore forecast of US$100t is viewed as reasonable for 2025, as higher cost producers reduce volumes. Simandou is expected to ramp up in 2026.

After adjusting for a potentially higher carbon price forecast of US$100t, Citi believes Fortescue shares are trading at too deep a discount.

A $21 target price is retained; rating lifted to Buy from Neutral on valuation grounds, rather than a still cautious view on iron ore.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $4.18
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.87, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi remains positive on the medium-to-longer term growth prospects for Goodman Group.

Earnings are believed to be supported by the 5GW global data centre development power bank with $13bn of work in progress, and 40% representing data centres, a 400MW power bank.

Gearing at 8.4% is viewed by the broker as "prudent" with 44x interest cover. Some 67% of commencements in the current year have a yield of 7.5% against the 6.7% existing yield, reflecting higher margins from data centres.

Citi tweaks EPS forecasts. Buy rating and $40 target unchanged.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $5.29
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group reported 14% earnings growth in FY24, above updated guidance (13%), and original 9% guidance.

Macquarie observes management pointed to 9% growth in FY25. The analyst believes this has upside revision potential over the fiscal year towards the Macquarie forecast of 12%.

Data centres represent 40% of work in progress, with scope to go above 50% of the group's development profile, alongside a higher global power bank of 5.0GW from 4.3GW at 3Q24.

Existing compound average EPS growth of 13% (consensus), with Macquarie at 12% between FY24-FY27, could prove conservative.

The analyst believes Goodman Group's competitive advantage in data centres, including sites, power, people and capabilities, underwites potentially higher earnings.

Neutral rating with a $36.47 target price, down from $36.51.

Target price is $36.47 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $1.76
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Following FY24 results, Morgan Stanley's bull case valuation for Goodman Group rises to reflect an upsized forecast for the data centre pipeline, resulting in a target of $38.05, up from $35.65.

The spread is increasing between yield-on-cost (YOC) and cap rates, even as cap rates expand, explains the broker, which augers well for development profits as assets are produced.

For FY24, Goodman reported 14% EPS growth versus guidance for 13%. As per tradition, management is being conservative (suggest the analysts) in guiding to FY25 EPS growth of 9%, or 117.2cps compared to the 120.6 forecast by consensus.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $38.05 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $3.34
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Goodman Group's FY24 result delivered operating earnings growth of 14%, exceeding prior guidance of 13%, and above the original guidance of 9% provided at the FY23 result.

Looking forward, Goodman forecasts FY25 growth of 9%, whilst Morgans (and consensus) expects this to be upgraded through the year to 13%.

The thematic tailwinds undoubtedly continue, Morgans suggests, with any forecast weakness in traditional logistics demand more than offset by the expanded demand for data centres. The question then turns to the valuation, which to the broker currently looks fair.

Hold retained, target rises to $36.50 from $33.50.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $1.79
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Sell (5) -

UBS does not deny the strong pipeline and growth potential from data centres, but there's underlying scepticism whether Goodman Group can continue to perform better than what is already reflected in market forecasts and the share price.

The broker notes management at the FY24 presentation attempted to put a brake on too exuberant optimism, instead flagging it'll take time for projects to come through and be finalised.

There no longer is a prospect for further growth from the traditional industrial assets development. Sell rating maintained on valuation. Price target lifts to $32.10 from $31.71.

Target price is $32.10 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

In a first glance at today's 1H result by GQG Partners, Macquarie highlights a "solid" revenue result, but points out this was aided by elevated performance fees. These fees of $19.4m bettered forecasts by the broker and consensus for $10.6m and $12.0m, respectively.

Distributable earnings of $209.9m were broadly in line with the broker's $210.8m forecast and came in ahead of the consensus estimate. 

While the market may be disappointed by another period of limited operating leverage (ex performance fees), the broker highlights the period should also support ongoing revenue growth.

Outperform rating. Target $3.05.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.2
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Upon first judfgment, UBS finds GQG Partners' core business beat expectations by some 4% in H1, but the broker also suggests the 'beat' is of lower quality with stronger performance fees offsetting higher costs from headcount growth.

Excluding Private Capital Solutions (PCS), the broker believes the core business performed in-line with its own estimates.

The broker is not 100% happy though, highlighting the asset manager continues to miss on cost growth, owing to expanding headcount.

Overall, concludes the broker, today's is a lower quality beat, and consensus will likely be upgrading its fee margins and performance fees, but also materially increasing compensation costs, limiting the extent of operating leverage.

Buy.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.4
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HDN as Hold (3) -

FY24 results for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT were in line with the consensus forecast, while FY25 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of 8.8cpu was below the 8.9cpu consensus forecast, explains Bell Potter.

Management expects to see re-leasing spreads continue to grow by between 5-6% year-on-year over the medium-term. The development pipeline was increased to $700m from $600m and the 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target was maintained.

Hold rating. The target rises to $1.35 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.075
If HDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LRS as Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Bell Potter lowers its target to 23c from 40c and downgrades Latin Resources to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy due to minimal downside risk to the proposed scrip deal with Hold-rated Pilbara Minerals. It's felt shares should trade in lock-step.

The broker's target for Pilbara Minerals of $3.15 implies a 23c target for Latin Resources. The latter has announced it has entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Agreement for Pilbara Minerals to acquire 100% of its shares by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.045
If LRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie believes FY25 could prove to be an earnings bottom for Magellan Financial post the FY24 results which met expectations.

Cost guidance for FY25 is 5% above expectations with retail outflows a headwind in the 1H25 for the Global Fund.

The broker observes Airlie and infrastructure performance are poised to offset the negatives.

The group acquired a 29.5% stake in Vinva for $138.5m, which is believed as strategically sound but at an elevated price.

Macquarie shifts EPS forecasts 4.2% for FY25 and 2.4% for FY26. Underperform rating unchanged with a revised target price of $9.45 from $8.20.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $10.44 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Magellan Financial's FY24 adjusted profit (ex associates) beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 2% and 1%, respectively, due to lower expenses. However, overall adjusted profit beat both by 5% and 4% largely due to stronger Barrenjoey profitability.

In a strong pointer of plans to become a multi-boutique manager, suggests the broker, Magellan has acquired 29.5% of Vinva Investment Management, which has $22bn of assets under management (AUM).

Target $8.50. Underweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $10.44 Difference: minus $1.94 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Magellan Financial reported in line with Morgans' expectations, with profit up 2%. Funds management divisional earnings have stabilised, with a marginal decline of -2% half-on-half.

The acquisition of a stake in Vinva Investment Management adds a strong manager to the line-up, the broker suggests. Along with Barrenjoey, Magellan now has some growth levers with meaningful potential, and further surplus capital to deploy.

While Morgans views Magellan’s outlook as improving, it would prefer to see higher capital upside to current valuation.

Target rises to $11.44 from $9.99, Hold retained.

Target price is $11.44 Current Price is $10.44 Difference: $1
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following FY24 results, UBS raises its target for Magellan Financial to $10.80 from $10.50 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation.

The broker suggests the positive share price reaction on the day reflects a reassessment of associates (stronger contribution from Barrenjoey in FY24) where carrying values are understated, and the Vinva Investment Management transaction.

The Vinva deal signals a shift to growth in adjacencies from stabilisation, suggests the analyst.

The FY24 core Funds Management business delivered broadly in line with consensus, with the 4% adjusted profit beat driven
by a stronger contribution from Barrenjoey, explains UBS.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $10.44 Difference: $0.36
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Today's National Australia Bank's 3Q trading update revealed cash earnings of $1.75bn - largely in line with forecasts by Citi and consensus.

Making an early assessment, the broker points to a soft quality outcome (implying a -3% miss against consensus) as in-line earnings were aided by a low bad and doubtful debt (BDD) charge.

While the net interest margin (NIM) was stable for the 3Q, revenues declined by -1% when consensus was anticipating a 1% rise, according to Citi.

The ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans and advances increased by 11bps reflecting an ongoing deterioration in business and private banking, as well as higher arrears in the mortgage portfolio, explains the broker.

Sell. Target $26.50.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: minus $9.44 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.02, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

UBS, in a quick response to today's Q3 market update, comments National Australia Bank's result shows a decline in cash earnings but the bank remains on track to meet FY24 forecasts with lower bad debt charges (albeit on what the analysts view as lower quality earnings).

The broker highlights the shape of earnings suggests revenue growth will need to accelerate 4.2% in Q4 to meet 2H consensus. UBS suspects NAB's NIM stabilised in the quarter, similar as what CommBank reported also.

Cost growth is in-line. NPLs increased by 10.8% QoQ to $5.8bn. Pro forma CET1 ratio at 12.3%. Sell. Target $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $35.94 Difference: minus $3.94 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.02, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Hold (3) -

Nufarm has lowered FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $300-330m from 350-390m on softer trading in North America and Europe and an expected fall in Omega-3 revenues, explains Bell Potter.

The issues facing management are sector wide and follow softer pricing trends so far in 2024, explain the analysts.

The broker's target is slashed to $4.05 from $5.10 due to lower operating earnings forecasts and higher assumed financing costs. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.09
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Nufarm reported a downgrade in FY24 EBITDA guidance by -15% at the midpoint or -11% against Macquarie's forecast.

Weaker updates from AgChem peers had suggested softer expectations for Nufarm, the broker posits, even as North American sales remained robust. Overall pricing is down -14%.

The company is also experiencing weak fish oil pricing impacting on Omega3, with gearing rising to 2.5x-2.7x above target.

Macquarie forecasts no dividend for the 2H24 and lowers EPS forecasts by -57% and -38% for FY24/FY25, respectively.

Target price is cut to $4 from $5.10. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.04
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Nufarm's trading update essentially eliminated all profit expectations for FY24 (September year end), and Morgan Stanley is not anticipating a full recovery in FY25 either. FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance was downgraded by -15%.

As reasons for the guidance downgrade, management cited the weak underlying industry environment, which has resulted in competitive pricing pressure, and adverse mix movements. Worst affected is the North American crop protection business.

Nufarm also noted lower demand for industrial products in Europe which will negatively impact European crop protection earnings and lower Omega 3 pricing within the seeds business.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $4.00 from $5.00. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.04
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Civil continues to outperform for NRW Holdings, Citi comments, with a 95% cash conversion for the company, including lower gearing.

Notably, costs have stabilised, according to management, and labour shortages have eased over the last six months. Around 400 employees were added, which Citi sees as positive to capitalise on opportunities.

The broker believes guidance is conservative with activity levels, including iron ore remaining good; pricing is also moving in a positive direction for contractors.

EPS forecasts lift 4.7% and 4.6% for FY25/FY26, with an accompanying increase in the target price to $4.05 from $3.65.

Unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.55
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Neutral (3) -

NRW Holdings delivered FY24 earnings and FY25 guidance above Macquarie's expectations, including growth in revenues with margin improvements.

Notably, civil/mining and Met margins advanced by 70/10/100basis points, respectively, with the broker looking for civil/Met margins to continue to improve.

FY25 guidance is assisted by a robust order book of $5.5bn, the analyst notes, with $2.9bn set for delivery in the current fiscal year. Mining represents $3.5bn in active tenders of the group's total with a pipeline of $16.4bn.

EPS forecasts are revised by 5% and 6% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Macquarie's earnings upgrades are offset by higher depreciation/amortisation charges, alongside net interest and tax cost increases.

Target price lifted to $3.37 from $2.70. No change in Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

UBS describes a "solid" set of earnings and cash flow numbers in FY24 for NRW Holdings, in line with the recent trading update.

Management guides to FY25 earnings (EBITA) 6% ahead of the consensus forecast largely driven by the Civil and Mining Equipment, Technology, and Services (METS) divisions, notes the broker.

The analyst explains the company is benefiting from an improving tender outlook in the iron ore sector, especially in relation to sustaining capital works.

The broker's target rises to $3.80 from $3.50 due to an 8% upgrade to free cash flow (FCF) forecasts over FY25 and FY26. Buy.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.3
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi asserts the selloff in Origin Energy's shares post the FY24 report release  looks "overdone".

Management confirmed the analyst's belief gross margins will start to improve as wholesale price volatility flows through to the retail margins with regulated tariffs.

The broker believes the market's expectation of $100m increase in costs in FY26 is too high and $70m is more reasonable.

Net profit forecasts are lowered by -6%/-2% for FY25/FY26, respectively. Buy rating retained with a revised target of $11 from $11.50.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $1.4
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Origin Energy reported 58% earnings growth in FY24, some -10%/-14% below consensus and Macquarie's forecasts, respectively.

The 55c dividend, flat on 1H24, was also a 'miss'.

Generation problems at Eraring underpinned lower electricity market earnings, while overhead costs came in higher. The electricity market recovery has been pushed out by the broker to FY26.

Octopus reported lower earnings. APLNG could experience -13% lower pricing from current levels in 2H25 with the reopening of contract  oil-price links, based on current differentials.

Macquarie revises EPS forecasts by -16% in FY25 and -10% in FY26, with a lower target price of $10.12 from $10.74.

Rating dowgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $10.12 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $0.52
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Following FY24 results for Origin Energy, and FY25 guidance which surprised to the downside, Morgan Stanley decides to lower its target to $8.86 from $10.00 and downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight. Industry view: Cautious.

The Energy Markets division is experiencing negative gas and electricity jaws, explains the broker, compounded by opex headwinds including higher bad debts, labour costs and compliance costs.

For FY24, earnings (EBITDA) rose by 14% on the previous corresponding period but missed forecasts by the analyst and consensus by -5% and -7%, respectively.

A final fully franked dividend of 27.5cps was declared.

Target price is $8.86 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

While Origin Energy's FY24 results were softer-than-anticipated, the main focus was a -12% miss on FY25 Energy Markets' earnings (EBITDA) guidance, explains UBS.

Management missed the targeted reduction in cost-to-serve by the end of FY24 due to cost-of-living pressures driving higher retail call volumes, observes the broker. This resulted in higher labour costs, bad debts expenses and growing regulatory and compliance costs.

In better news, UBS notes structural tailwinds supporting Energy Markets EBITDA growth all remain intact.

The broker reminds investors of Origin's unique leverage to the growing value of firm capacity due to operating the largest fleet of peaking gas-powered plants downunder.

The target falls to $11.70 from $12.10. Buy.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $2.1
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Pilbara Minerals will potentially acquire 100% of shares in Latin Resources via a Scheme Implementation Agreement whereby Latin Resources shareholders will receive 0.07 new Pilbara shares per Latin Resources share owned.

The target's main asset is the hard-rock Salinas Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, which hosts a resource of 77.7mt at 1.24% Li2O, explains Bell Potter. The transaction would provide medium-term growth options into stronger lithium markets, suggest the analysts.

The Hold rating is maintained, and the target slips to $3.15 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.41
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi is perplexed by Pilbara Minerals decision to acquire a Brazilian company, Latin Resources ((LRS)). The analyst is challenged to find any "structural advantage".

The proposed share swap represents 6.4% of Pilbara Minerals' market capitalisation and the equity exchange protects the balance sheet, according to management.

Reasoning for the acquisition includes some Tier 1 assets and diversification into the North American/European battery markets, which Citi questions, as other projects might become more distressed assets with IRA compliance. Brazil does not have that.

Neutral. Unchanged $2.90 target price.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.16
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

The counter cyclical decision to acquire Latin resources ((LRS)) makes sense, but Morgan Stanley remains more concerned by other matters such as costs and prices achieved for lithium in the face of weakening Chinese electric vehicle sales.

Pilbara Minerals intends to progress/optimise the definitive feasibility study (DFS), already being undertaken by Latin Resources, on the Salinas lithium project located in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Underweight. Target $2.70. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Pilbara Minerals will acquire Lake Resources ((LRS)) for an all-scrip consideration, representing a 32% premium to Lake Resources' 30-day VWAP. The acquisition secures the hard-rock Salinas Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Morgans likes the rationale behind this counter-cyclical acquisition and expects Pilbara Minerals to reap the rewards in future if it can execute on the project.

However, given it is a counter-cyclical acquisition and is initially dilutive, the broker doesn't doesn't expect a positive reaction from the market given there is a strong focus on the current lithium environment over the potential future fundamentals.

Add and $3.40 target retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.66
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals has announced an all-scrip deal for Latin Resources ((LRS)), leaving the target a 6.4% shareholder in Pilbara should the deal complete. Latin Resources owns the Salinas spodumene project in Brazil.

Asset diversification and leveraging existing expertise are the primary motivations for Pilbara Minerals, explains the broker.

None of the above alters the UBS forecast for an over-supplied lithium market which will weigh on prices for one-to-three years, so a Sell rating is kept for Pilbara Minerals. The $2.50 target is retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra Group's FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) came in slightly above Bell Potter's forecast. While revenue was a slight miss, a better- than-expected underlying earnings margin provided an offset.

In line with the analysts' expectation, management narrowed FY25 guidance for underlying earnings to between $8.5-8.7bn from $8.4-$8.7bn. The 9cps final dividend aligned with the broker's forecast.

The target rises to $4.30 from $4.20 due to a lower discount to valuation applied by Bell Potter. Buy.

In an interesting comparison, the broker suggests Telstra's dividend should grow at a greater rate than what is expected for Australian banks.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.35
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra Group refined FY25 EBITDA guidance by 0.6% at the midpoint, Macquarie highlights, with free cashflow expected to provide an uplift in the dividend to 19c, a 6% rise.

Notably, management has revised the definition of free cashflow to exclude strategic investments such as intercity fibre/Viaset build.

The analyst points to the increase in spend on such items, $500m in FY26, which suggests to Macquarie some will be debt funded.

The results reflected increased competition in enterprise and mobile, with average revenue per user down in the 2H on 1H24 and weaker subscriber growth.

Macquarie revises EPS estimates for FY25/FY26 by 5% and 3%, respectively, with an unchanged $4.30 target price.

Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.35
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Telstra Group's FY24 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were broadly in line with consensus forecasts, explains Morgan Stanley, while FY25 guidance was narrowed/raised to $8.5-8.7bn from $8.4-8.7bn.

The broker assesses a "solid" performance by both Mobile and InfraCo. These businesses drive free cash flow (FCF) and underpin the analysts' forecast for a rising dividend over time. The FY24 dividend was 18cps, up from 17cps in FY23.

Morgan Stanley considers the Mobile division is still in earnings upgrade mode and InfraCo continues to deliver low risk returns.

Overweight. Target $4.20. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.25
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Reduce (5) -

Telstra Group’s FY24 result was largely in line with expectations on an underlying basis and below on a reported basis due to $715m of one-offs, more than expected, Morgans notes.

Given Mobile is the largest part of Telstra, its performance matters the most. In FY24, mobile revenue lifted 4.5% year on year and expenses were up 1%, which collectively increased Mobile earnings by 9%. The broker sees this as a strong result.

Morgans retains Reduce, as mathematically the broker sees more downside than upside risk as Telstra trades on a PE multiple materially above its ten-year average and that of international incumbent peers.

Target rises to $3.20 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra reported FY24 operating earnings and final dividend (9c) in line with Ord Minnett. The upside surprise was the tightening of its
previous guidance range for FY25 operating earnings to $8.5-8.7bn from $8.4-$8.7bn, which augurs well for dividends in this fiscal year, the broker suggests.

Second-half revenue from the key mobile division met forecasts, but average revenue per user and net post-paid subscriber additions were slightly weaker.

Earnings from the network applications and services (NAS) business held up in the second half versus the first and Telstra is continuing its review of the division.

Ord Minnett makes no changes. Buy and $4.50 target retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.55
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

In the wake of Telstra Group's FY24 result, UBS anticipates the Mobile segment will drive earnings and dividend growth into FY25. Management is planning to capture price rises in mobiles over the medium-term in Consumer.

Beyond FY25, the broker remains positive on 2.5-3.0% annual price rises in postpaid mobiles, as industry dynamics remain rational.

The broker forecasts a dividend compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% to 22.5cps by FY27 from 19cps in FY25.

Buy rating and $4.40 target unchanged.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.45
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi commends Treasury Wine Estates for execution on reducing exposure to the commercial wine segment as market trends continue to decline.

The broker highlights further decline in commercial exposure, with creation of a new Premium brand portfolio in FY26, is expected to lift confidence in the strategy as well as transparency on the main luxury brands.

Neutral rated with a $12.97 target price from $13. Citi believes the company continues to face uncertainty in China and adverse demand trends in its premium portfolio in the near-term.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $0.62
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

The re-entry into the Chinese market was seen as a plus for Treasury Wine Estates with FY24 results showing case sales of 3m and $1bn in revenue, above Macquarie's expectations.

Management confirmed earnings growth of lower double-digit in FY25 and 15% in FY26/FY27 for Penfolds.

US acquisition Daou is performing in line with expectations and -$20m of synergies are expected by the end of FY26, Macquarie highlights.

Commercial wine globally remains in contraction, particularly below $15/bottle, with Macquarie estimating negligible earnings impact from the company's reduction in commercial wine exposure.

EPS forecasts are lifted 4% and 3% for FY25/FY26 with a tweak in the Macquarie target price to $13.90 from $14.

Overweight unchanged.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $1.55
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Following in-line FY24 results and FY25 guidance, Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $14.60 target for Treasury Wine Estates. Industry view: In-line.

From July 1, 2025, management will establish a new global premium brands segment by combining Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) and Treasury Americas (TA) premium brands. The broker believes this move foreshadows a potential longer-term divestment.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $2.25
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates' FY24 result held few surprises given the company’s recent trading updates. Pleasingly, suggests Morgans, its two Luxury portfolios and cashflow all slightly beat guidance. The much smaller and low margin Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) disappointed.

Importantly, targets for both of its Luxury wine businesses over the next few years were reiterated, and, if delivered, will underpin double digit earnings growth out to FY27.

Treasury Wine intends to create a Global Premium division by 1 July 2025 through the combination of TPB and TA Premium portfolio brands. This suggests to Morgans that a demerger is unlikely in the near term as the company focuses on optimising this business.

While Treasury Wine won’t be completely immune to cost of living pressures and reduced alcohol consumption, the broker thinks it has a number of drivers to underpin strong earnings growth over coming years. Add retained, target drops to $14.80 from $15.03.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $2.45
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

FY24 profit (NPAT-S) for Treasury Wine Estates came in shy of the consensus expectation as did FY25 guidance (by -1.5). A weaker performance by Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) was partly countered by strength in the Americas segment.

Management announced it will establish a Global Premium Brands (GPB) division from FY26, adding Americas Premium Brands to the existing TPB division.

The broker's target eases to $14 from $14.50 on lower forecast earnings. Buy.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $2.15
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Outperform (1) -

Woodside Energy pre-reported a "solid" 1H2024 result, with Macquarie cutting the dividend payout to 60% from 80%, freeing up $700m in the current year.

The reduction is required to balance the capital needs for the Driftwood & Beaumont acquisitions and retain gearing in the 10%-20% range, the broker highlights.

Woodside Energy confirmed the Scarborough selldowns of 10% to LNG Japan, US$500m, and 15.1% to JERA for US$740m will be booked above the line, as opposed to the market and broker's belief the income would be booked post earnings.

Macquarie revises forecast 2024 EPS by 34% with an interim dividend of US51c. 2025 EPS forecast rises 12% on lower costs and a reduced tax rate.

Target price rises 3% to $33 with an unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.52 Difference: $7.48
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.25, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

After management at Woodside Energy released guidance for line items for the upcoming 1H result, UBS now believes
there could be consensus EPS upgrades on all items. An around $500m upgrade to 1H consensus EPS is implied.

The upgrades stem from a lower-than-expected effective tax rate and petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) expense in the 1H and the inclusion of the gain on sale from the Scarborough sell down, explains the analyst.

The Neutral rating and $31 target are maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.52 Difference: $5.48
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.25, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources