Australian Broker Call
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November 01, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FMG - | Fortescue Metals | Upgrade to Hold from Reduce | Morgans |
MQG - | Macquarie Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -
Airtasker's 1Q update demonstrated to Morgans the resilience and adaptability of the marketplace, given more than 50% of the end market was in lockdown. Gross marketplace volume grew 6.2% on the previous corresponding period.
While the analyst had underestimated the recent spend on people and product, it's felt this will aid long-term growth. The broker retains its Add rating and lowers its target price to $1.27 from $1.30.
Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.17
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.12
Ord Minnett rates CRW as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett notes a 29% increase in active members and transaction value in the September quarter. Cashrewards has reiterated a target of 500,000 active members by early FY23.
The broker expects a rebound in travel transactions in 2022 and over the medium term this will be a source of upside.
Cash receipts of $6.5m in the quarter were in line with estimates. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and $1.30 target.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.18
If CRW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 37.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.23
Macquarie rates DCN as Outperform (1) -
Dacian Gold production from Mount Morgan in the first quarter was well below Macquarie's estimates. Production is expected to improve over the course of FY22.
Guidance for FY22 has been maintained at 100-110,000 ounces. A 5-year plan has been outlined for the Laverton operations with annual gold production guidance of 115-125,000 from FY24-26.
Macquarie reduces estimates for cough earnings by -16% to account for the weak production and delays in underground developments.
Outperform maintained. Target is $0.25.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.02
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EOS ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment
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Overnight Price: $3.19
Citi rates EOS as Neutral (3) -
Citi has downgraded its earnings forecasts for Electro Optic Systems Holdings by between -$5m and -$17m from FY21-FY23 following earnings downgrades issued by the company.
The broker notes the downgrade was largely driven by customer-led delays. Further, while the company retains medium-term opportunities in defense it is hard for Citi to determine the size and timing of these and so remains cautious about this opportunity pipeline.
The Neutral/High Risk rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.00 from $4.50.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.81
If EOS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.93
Morgans rates FMG as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -
Morgans assesses an in-line 1Q result for Fortescue Metals Group during a period of falling demand for low-grade iron ore and an -8% decline in shipments by the group. The broker raises its rating to Hold from Reduce after a -50% decline in the share price.
Management maintained FY22 guidance. The broker feels lower iron ore prices and the low-grade discounts will directly reduce the group’s extraordinary dividend and pace of investment in Fortescue Future Industries (FFI). The target price falls to $13 from $14.15.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 196.21 cents and EPS of 261.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.13 cents and EPS of 233.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.4, implying annual growth of -17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $12.20
Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -
It is Citi's view that the acquisition of Vision X will be a strategically sound move for GUD Holdings given its potential to increase a foothold in Europe and expand into the US market.
The transaction, set to complete by end of November, will also allow GUD to reduce reliance on legacy auto customers and reduce exposure to ICE vehicles. The broker increases earnings forecasts by between 6-11% through to FY24.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $13.55 from $12.30.
Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $12.20 Difference: $1.35
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 80.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.0, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 91.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -
GUD Holdings has acquired Vision X for US$71.4m, which Macquarie suggests will be highly complementary to the existing BWI business.
The broker finds the acquisition compelling from an accretion perspective as well as a longer-term strategic objective.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and considers the main risk lies with Vision X not achieving not hit its growth targets. Target is raised to $15.75 from $13.60.
Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $12.20 Difference: $3.55
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 81.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.0, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 97.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GUD as Buy (1) -
FY22 earnings guidance of $112-116m (pre Vision X) is in line with UBS estimates, underpinned by pent-up demand as the population starts to move around.
UBS notes a second round of price increases for the larger automotive business will be effective from the third quarter, offsetting cost inflation.
The broker expects a $22m headwind to earnings in FY22 from freight rates, supplier price increases and the roll off of JobKeeper, yet the company should be able to offset this. Buy rating and $12.90 target maintained.
Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.20 Difference: $0.7
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.0, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.1, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.72
Macquarie rates GWA as Outperform (1) -
The first quarter trading update revealed GWA Group's Australian sales were up 6% while New Zealand sales were down -32%. The latter was affected by the 5-week impact from lockdowns. A strong rebound has occurred in NZ sales in late September.
Macquarie believes the buoyant renovations market should continue for some time and the backlog of new building work has been extended through supply chain constraints.
Outperform retained. Target is raised to $3.30 from $3.25.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.58
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 14.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.13
Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on the only listed, health-dedicated REIT, HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, with an Overweight rating and $2.45 target price. The broker likes exposure to the health mega-trend and contracted rent increases.
Should management succeed in the plan to quintuple the REIT's size by 2024, the analyst estimates around 15% upside for the FY26 funds from operations (FFO) forecast. There is also expected to be significant roll-up potential.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.32
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $197.83
Citi rates MQG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi notes Macquarie Group has reported a fourth consecutive quarter averaging around $1bn in net profit after tax, after first half profit after tax of $2,043m. Given market conditions, the broker expects the trend to continue for the next two quarters.
While the broker notes Macquarie Group is well placed to benefit from an evolving energy crisis, an acceleration in equity investments is offering sustainability to outer-year results.
Citi increases its FY22 net profit after tax forecast 17% to $4,145m and forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by around 10%, noting it expects earnings to moderate in FY23 and FY24.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from neutral and the target price increases to $226.00 from $200.00.
Target price is $226.00 Current Price is $197.83 Difference: $28.17
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $210.60, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 642.00 cents and EPS of 1093.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 989.8, implying annual growth of 17.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 575.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 610.00 cents and EPS of 986.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 960.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 580.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -
After Macquarie Group's 7% 1H profit beat and indications from management of a strong 2H outlook for Macquarie Capital and commodities, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $245 from $240. The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view in-line.
The broker also likes that green revenues are growing and anticipates a less capital-intensive mix for Green Investment Group (GIG). This segment will move into Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) from FY23, which is expected to lead to a multiple re-rate.
The group is raising $1.5bn to provide “additional flexibility to invest in new opportunities”.
Target price is $245.00 Current Price is $197.83 Difference: $47.17
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $210.60, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 577.00 cents and EPS of 1015.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 989.8, implying annual growth of 17.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 575.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 989.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 960.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 580.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -
Following Macquarie Group's 1H results, Morgans raises its target price to $200 from $181.10 due to a lift in long-term growth assumptions and a valuation adjustment. The Hold rating is unchanged after a strong recent share price rally.
The analyst attributes the announced capital raise to the strong share price, as opposed to the investment opportunities cited by management.
While the profit and dividend were slightly below consensus forecasts, the broker focused on a rise in return on equity (ROE) to 17.8% from 14.3% in FY21.
Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $197.83 Difference: $2.17
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $210.60, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 542.00 cents and EPS of 913.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 989.8, implying annual growth of 17.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 575.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 574.00 cents and EPS of 922.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 960.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 580.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.40
Morgans rates NVX as Hold (3) -
Following Novonix' 1Q results, Morgans gleans from increased product manufacturing costs that the initial Samsung 500t contract is close to completion. Thus, the analyst removes the risk discount on the Novonix Anode Material business and the target rises to $7.32 from $5.68.
The broker retains its Hold rating and earnings forecasts, despite strong demand for battery materials, as a lot of long-term growth is already priced-in and the share price has recently rallied hard.
Target price is $7.32 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If NVX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.50
Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -
Positive reconciliation at Haile has offset some of the obstacles created by lockdowns in New Zealand. Production guidance for both Haile and Didipio have been upgraded.
Significantly, Macquarie points out the re-start at Didipio is going well and 2021 guidance has been lifted. Yet at Haile approvals related to water discharge are awaited, which if delayed have potential to affect 2022 production.
Outperform rating and target of $2.90 unchanged.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.4
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.17 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.05
Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -
Origin Energy's production for the September quarter was in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker expects a strengthening of LNG prices although notes realised LNG prices were significantly below peers.
The variance is a result of the planned maintenance affecting LNG productions and as a result no cargoes were sold at spot.
Yet, the main concern centres on energy markets and the impact from lower wholesale electricity prices. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $5.25 from $5.15.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.2
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -
Origin Energy posted a strong first quarter with APLNG revenue of $634m net. This was up 24% and stemmed from higher realised pricing in both LNG and domestic gas.
In energy markets, weather-adjusted electricity demand was -4.5% below pre-pandemic levels while small commercial volumes were -8-10% lower. UBS observes a recovery in electricity demand continues to be hindered by strong growth in rooftop solar.
The company will cycle the Eraring power station capacity down to reduce exposure to lower average daytime electricity prices.
Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.85.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.95
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $37.17
Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
ResMed Inc's 1Q adjusted EPS came in 10% above consensus forecasts and a 4% beat versus Citi's forecast. Mask sales were below expectation, SaaS was in-line while device sales were higher than estimated. The broker retains its Neutral rating.
The Philips’ recall leaves a yearly market gap of around US$800m for CPAP devices and management expects to make long-term market share gains. Other than stating increased freight costs will weigh on margins, the company offered no other guidance.
Price target lifts to $38.50 from $36.50.
Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $37.17 Difference: $1.33
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.10, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.67 cents and EPS of 86.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.19 cents and EPS of 92.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
First quarter revenue was ahead of expectations. The impact associated with the recall at Phillips continues to present opportunities for ResMed, Macquarie asserts. Still supply constraints over the short term exist.
The broker believes the current share price is capturing expectations for the longer-term gains in market share. Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $38.00 from $37.50.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $37.17 Difference: $0.83
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.10, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.67 cents and EPS of 85.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.26 cents and EPS of 108.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -
Following ResMed's 1Q results, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $37.30 from $36.20. The broker assesses very strong device growth driven by price/mix/volume. The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
The 1Q Philips recall benefit was US$80-90m compared to the analyst's estimate for US$25m and was considered the main driver of an earnings beat. Going forward it's felt the recall benefit is less reliant on reduced supply bottlenecks, which increases the broker's conviction.
Target price is $37.30 Current Price is $37.17 Difference: $0.13
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.10, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.27 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.27 cents and EPS of 97.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -
Following ResMed's better than expected 1Q result, Morgans expects a strong medium-term earnings outlook will outweigh shorter-term margin pressure and supply constraints. The latter is expected to limit market share gains from the Phillips device recall.
The analyst highlights double-digit device growth and recovering patient flows though a rise in US masks of 5% was thought soft. The broker retains its Add rating and reduces its target price to $40.80 from $41.34.
Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $37.17 Difference: $3.63
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.10, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.07 cents and EPS of 85.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.12 cents and EPS of 101.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RMD as Hold (3) -
ResMed's first quarter net income was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. Despite the opportunity presented by the recall of the Philips product management has still warned that supply chain issues will constrain sales growth.
Gross margins are under pressure from higher freight costs and this is expected to continue well into 2022. Ord Minnett expects ResMed will retain some market share when Phillips returns in FY23 although there will be some reversion which will mean headwinds to growth.
The broker retains a Hold rating and $36 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $37.17 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.10, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.67 cents and EPS of 79.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.26 cents and EPS of 91.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.42
Citi rates RSG as Neutral (3) -
Despite recovery efforts in the September quarter, Citi notes rainfall at Resolute Mining's Syama Oxide project drove a 15% increase to all-in sustaining costs.
Overall, group production was a -5% miss on Citi's forecast but steady quarter-on-quarter, while group all-in sustaining costs were up 14% driven by Syama Oxide. The broker reduces 2021 underlying earnings -13% and production -3%.
The Neutral/High Risk rating and target price of $0.60 are retained.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.18
If RSG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.65 cents and EPS of minus 2.92 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.65 cents and EPS of 1.59 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -
The September quarter production results were mixed with a stronger performance at Mako while Syama was affected by high rainfall. Macquarie notes Syama oxide production was particularly weak.
Incorporating the update and updating the hedge book means the broker's estimates for 2021 move to a small profit from a small loss and 2022 estimates are lifted by 9%. Outperform retained. Target is $0.70.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.28
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.30
Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -
The trading update highlighted the improvement in gross loss rates. Ord Minnett observes Sezzle is one of the fastest growing listed BNPL businesses and a valuation gap has opened up with others such as Affirm and Afterpay ((APT)).
The broker remains bullish on the stock and believes the gap will narrow, particularly as more traction is obtained as the relationship with Target garners momentum.
Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $9.90 from $10.00.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $4.6
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 32.61 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 36.72 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $11.52
Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes expansion into high growth Sparkling Wine could be a potential opportunity for Treasury Wine Estates, given the company appears open to merger and acquisition opportunities into adjacent categories.
The broker notes while the company appears well-positioned to pursue acquisitive activity given net debt reduction in FY21, this position is likely to improve further as the company continues its $300m divestment.
The Neutral rating and target price of $12.86 are retained.
Target price is $12.86 Current Price is $11.52 Difference: $1.34
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 46.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 55.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.7, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.67
Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -
Earlier today Westpac Bank released its FY21 report and Macquarie, upon initial assessment, concludes the process of rebasing earnings at the bank is continuing.
The broker remarks while Westpac has successfully arrested further market share decline, success has come at the cost of margin pressure.
Macquarie finds its own below-consensus forecast for FY22 is being vindicated and consensus downgrades are anticipated. The bank did announce a $3.5bn share buyback.
Neutral rating with a target price of $26.50.
Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.67 Difference: $0.83
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.47, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 131.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.8, implying annual growth of 117.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 163.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.9, implying annual growth of 28.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.16
Citi rates WSA as Neutral (3) -
Despite an -18% quarter-on-quarter production decrease by Western Areas in the September quarter, as well as a 29% increase in direct costs, Citi notes the company has maintained FY22 full-year guidance.
The broker notes head grade and recovery decline at the Flying Fox mine drove results, and direct costs can be expected to vary quarter-to-quarter as the project approaches end of mine life. Citi increases expected costs and reduces FY22 underlying earnings forecast -4%.
The Neutral rating and target price of $3.40 are retained.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.24
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of -52.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ART | Airtasker | $1.08 | Morgans | 1.27 | 1.30 | -2.31% |
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | $3.06 | Citi | 4.00 | 4.50 | -11.11% |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | $14.29 | Morgans | 13.00 | 14.15 | -8.13% |
GUD | G.U.D. Holdings | $12.19 | Citi | 13.55 | 12.30 | 10.16% |
Macquarie | 15.75 | 13.60 | 15.81% | |||
GWA | GWA Group | $2.73 | Macquarie | 3.30 | 3.25 | 1.54% |
MQG | Macquarie Group | $198.67 | Citi | 226.00 | 200.00 | 13.00% |
Morgan Stanley | 245.00 | 240.00 | 2.08% | |||
Morgans | 200.00 | 181.10 | 10.44% | |||
NVX | Novonix | $7.67 | Morgans | 7.32 | 5.68 | 28.87% |
ORG | Origin Energy | $5.12 | Ord Minnett | 5.25 | 5.15 | 1.94% |
UBS | 6.00 | 5.85 | 2.56% | |||
RMD | ResMed | $35.34 | Citi | 38.50 | 36.50 | 5.48% |
Macquarie | 38.00 | 37.50 | 1.33% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 37.30 | 36.20 | 3.04% | |||
Morgans | 40.80 | 41.34 | -1.31% | |||
RSG | Resolute Mining | $0.42 | Macquarie | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.00% |
SZL | Sezzle | $5.33 | Ord Minnett | 9.90 | 10.00 | -1.00% |
WSA | Western Areas | $3.02 | Citi | 3.40 | 3.00 | 13.33% |
Summaries
ART | Airtasker | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.10 |
CRW | Cashrewards | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.12 |
DCN | Dacian Gold | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.23 |
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.19 |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.93 |
GUD | G.U.D. Holdings | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.20 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.20 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $12.20 | ||
GWA | GWA Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.72 |
HCW | HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT | Initiation of coverage with Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.13 |
MQG | Macquarie Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $197.83 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $197.83 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $197.83 | ||
NVX | Novonix | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.40 |
OGC | OceanaGold | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.50 |
ORG | Origin Energy | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.05 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.05 | ||
RMD | ResMed | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $37.17 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $37.17 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $37.17 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $37.17 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $37.17 | ||
RSG | Resolute Mining | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.42 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.42 | ||
SZL | Sezzle | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.30 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $11.52 |
WBC | Westpac Banking | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $25.67 |
WSA | Western Areas | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.16 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 14 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 13 |
Monday 01 November 2021
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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