Australian Broker Call

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March 15, 2024

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ABB - Aussie Broadband Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Ord Minnett
ALL - Aristocrat Leisure Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
BHP - BHP Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
CUV - Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
FMG - Fortescue Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
HHR - Hartshead Resources Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
ABB  AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.55

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers Aussie Broadband' earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by -11% and -14%, respectively, after Origin Energy ((ORG) unexpectedly terminated the whitelabel broadband agreement.

The broker still anticipates double-digit EPS growth into the medium and long-term, and stresses the negative surprise doesn't impact growth potential in other markets. The analysts are referring to the branded residential, enterprise, government and unified communications markets.

Management has reaffirmed FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

The target falls to $4.16 from $4.89 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.61
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.42.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $45.94

Morgans rates ALL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans raises its target for Aristocrat Leisure to $47 from $45 and downgrades its rating to Hold from Add given the recent strong share price performance.

Prior to interim results due on May 16, the broker raises its earnings (EPSA) estimates  for FY24 and FY25 by 3.8% and forecasts earnings (EBITA) and profit of $930m and $687m, respectively. Consensus is forecasting $956m and $703m, respectively.

Management recently reiterated an expectation for positive NPATA growth in FY24, weighted to the 2H.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $45.94 Difference: $1.06
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.60, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 205.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.7, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.2, implying annual growth of 8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.68

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans adjusts its forecasts for ANZ Bank for Q1 performance, the acquisition of Suncorp Group's ((SUN)) banking segment (resulting in material earnings upgrades) and the reduced stake in AmBank. 

Overall, the broker is expecting an earnings decline in FY24 and a further decline in FY25 partially offset by the Suncorp Bank acquisition.

The target rises to $26.83 from $24.60 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $26.83 Current Price is $28.68 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.09, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.5, implying annual growth of -6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.7, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGA  BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $4.14

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

The latest ABARE forecast is for a fall of -4.4 cent per litre year-on-year in FY25 farmgate milk prices. Should this fall occur, Bell Potter calculates a -$55-60m reduction in milk cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) for Bega Cheese.

The analysts feel this upside potential for earnings is currently underappreciated by the market. A realignment in farmgates to commodity markets provides the largest upside risk to near-term forecasts by consensus, believes Bell Potter.

The Buy rating and $5.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.86
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 59.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL  BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.66

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold has surprised Macquarie, reporting a positive profit result for the first half rather than the loss the broker had anticipated. The company delivered a small $2m profit for the half, a sizeable beat to an expected -$15m loss. 

The company finished the period with net debt of $181m, but with the ramp up continuing, the broker does expect peak debt is behind Bellevue Gold. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.90 are retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.24
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $43.06

Citi rates BHP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

In response to share price weakness, Citi has upgraded BHP Group to Buy from Neutral with a price target (unchanged) of $46.

The broker continues to preference Rio Tinto ((RIO)) because of better growth prospects.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $43.06 Difference: $2.94
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.73, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 255.20 cents and EPS of 461.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 424.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 264.32 cents and EPS of 480.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $30.05

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For Brickworks, the Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $25.15 from $24.75.

Target price is $25.15 Current Price is $30.05 Difference: minus $4.9 (current price is over target).
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of -94.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 213.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.7, implying annual growth of 947.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.67

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reminds investors a prospective recovery in fund flows in Australia off the back of potential interest rate cuts by the RBA will likely be cyclical and structural challenges remain for active managers.

Profit margin headwinds will arise from fee compression, wage inflation and business development needs, suggests the analyst. The trend towards low cost ETF's and superannuation funds is expected to persist in the medium-term.

The Hold rating and $7.40 target for Challenger are unchanged.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $0.73
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.16, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 58.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 69.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 24.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLG  CLOSE THE LOOP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $0.29

Shaw and Partners rates CLG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners alerts medium-term investors to the opportunity afforded by the recent fall in Close the Loop's share price despite recent "solid" 1H results and upgraded earnings guidance for FY24.

While the broker awaits management's exciting strategy to unfold (the main reason to hold the stock), the company is delivering solid free cash flow, highlights the broker.

The analyst likes the company's diversification with both packaging and recycling segments.

The Buy rating and target price of 70c are retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.41
If CLG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.69.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $8.83

Macquarie rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For CSR, the Neutral rating and target price of $9.00 are retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $0.17
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 49.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of -0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 36.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of -14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV  CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $14.61

Morgans rates CUV as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

In an appropriate response to share price weakness, suggests Morgans, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals has announced an on-market buyback of around 3% of shares on issue.

The broker has been noting for some time excess cash (and equivalents) sitting on the balance sheet amounting to around 25% of the company's market capitalisation.

The share price has weakened since prior research by the analyst, so the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. The $16 target is unchanged.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.61 Difference: $1.39
If CUV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 69.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.5, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 74.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $24.53

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

In response to recent share price weakness, Citi has upgraded Fortescue to Neutral from Sell with an unchanged price target of $24.

The broker's sector favourite remains Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 328.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 245.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.9, implying annual growth of -23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $30.96

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Goodman Group is well placed to capitalise on increasing global data centre demand.

The group has 3.6GW of secured/close-to-secured power supply, a vital ingredient combined with its current land bank, to facilitate the mega-trend, in the broker's view.

Morgan Stanley expects AI will add an incremental 77% demand to baseline data centre capacity by 2027, which could take AI up to 1.1% of global power demand, compared to 0.1% at present.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target is increased to $34.00 from $31.35. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $30.96 Difference: $3.04
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.06, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 106.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 118.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.3, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GWA  GWA GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $2.83

Macquarie rates GWA as Outperform (1) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For GWA Goup , the Neutral rating and target price of $3.10 are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.27
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HHR  HARTSHEAD RESOURCES NL

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Overnight Price: $0.01

Bell Potter rates HHR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Hartshead Resources is reviewing project economics and timeline for 40%-held P2607 Phase 1 (Anning and Somerville). This follows uncertainty in the UK gas sector resulting from changes in taxation policy proposed by the UK Labour Party, explains Bell Potter.

The Labour Party plans to increase the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), lifting the sector’s headline tax rate to 78% from 75%. There is also a proposal to cancel the “investment allowance” which currently provides oil and gas producers 91.4% tax relief on capital projects.

The broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy in recognition of policy and project uncertainty. The target is lowered to 3c from 9c on higher project risking.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.023
If HHR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 329% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO  HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $2.90

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

In a promising sign for Helloworld Travel, according to Shaw and Partners, ABS data show total arrivals into Australia in January showed a 32% increase on January 2023.

The three leading source countries where visitors came from were New Zealand, China and the US. Total departures also increased by 27%. The data auger well for the broker's FY24 revenue growth forecast of 42.6%.

No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts for Helloworld, and the Buy rating and $3.80 target are retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.9
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 97.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 21.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL  INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $2.35

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reminds investors a prospective recovery in fund flows in Australia off the back of potential interest rate cuts by the RBA will likely be cyclical and structural challenges remain for active managers.

Profit margin headwinds will arise from fee compression, wage inflation and business development needs, suggests the analyst. The trend towards low cost ETF's and superannuation funds is expected to persist in the medium-term.

The Accumulate rating and $3.60 target for Insignia Financial are unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $1.25
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 2180.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $61.60

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains its Buy rating and $63 target for James Hardie Industries after reviewing recent results by US-based competitor Lennar Corporation.

Guidance by management at Lennar suggests to the broker sequential improvement in the price/margin environment. Deliveries and new orders for Lennar appeared in line with James Hardie's expectations.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $61.60 Difference: $1.4
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.74, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 245.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 280.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For James Hardie Industries, the Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $68.20 from $65.60.

Target price is $68.20 Current Price is $61.60 Difference: $6.6
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.74, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG  JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $6.21

Morgan Stanley rates JLG as Overweight (1) -

Johns Lyng joins Morgan Stanley's list of key small/mid cap ideas where the broker has conviction on outperformance going forward.

Despite market scepticism around a 2H earnings skew implied by management's FY24 guidance, the analysts believe this is achievable and expect the company's organic growth trajectory will re-accelerate.

Morgan Stanley maintains its longer-term investment thesis which incorporates compound growth in Australia and a long runway for structural market penetration in the US.

Overweight and $7.20 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $0.99
If JLG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $9.51

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reminds investors a prospective recovery in fund flows in Australia off the back of potential interest rate cuts by the RBA will likely be cyclical and structural challenges remain for active managers.

Profit margin headwinds will arise from fee compression, wage inflation and business development needs, suggests the analyst. The trend towards low cost ETF's and superannuation funds is expected to persist in the medium-term.

The Hold rating and $9.60 target for Magellan Financial are unchanged.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: $0.09
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.60 cents and EPS of 95.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.5, implying annual growth of -10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 84.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of -23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMS  MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $19.84

Bell Potter rates MMS as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on McMillan Shakespeare with a Buy rating and $22.52 target price. The company provides employee benefits within remuneration packages and operates commercial fleets and disability support services.

Strong employment growth from the health care industry provides a defensive client base, explain the analysts, while growing
novated lease orderbook volumes and yields should benefit future periods.

McMillan Shakespeare offers a unique exposure to a growing demand profile for renewable fuels and vehicle electrification on the ASX, suggests Bell Potter.

The broker's valuation is supported by increased demand for electric vehicles, aided by the Electric Car Discount Bill which exempts low or zero emission vehicles from Fringe Benefits Tax.

Target price is $22.52 Current Price is $19.84 Difference: $2.68
If MMS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.91, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 160.50 cents and EPS of 160.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.7, implying annual growth of 234.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 148.50 cents and EPS of 148.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.4, implying annual growth of -4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR  MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $0.86

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Hold (3) -

Myer's trading update back in early February only saw Ord Minnett make minor adjustments to forecasts. Yesterday's H1 release proved in line with that trading update.

The broker finds trading momentum is better than expected. The top line growth forecast has been lifted though the broker remains of the view consumer spending will slow later in the year.

Ord Minnett's long term outlook for Myer is "muted". Department stores are projected to underperform the broader discretionary sector. Profit margins are not expected to rise.

Hold. Target/fair value 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $4.17

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

In the first auction since December 2022, notes Citi, Pilbara Minerals has accepted a bid for its spodumene concentrate at an around 20% premium to spot pricing for delivery in December.

While the volume (5,000t) was small, the auction demonstrates to the analysts demand remains robust with converters prepared to pay above spot for delivery at the end of the 2024.

'Spot' SC6 spodumene prices are currently around US$900t-1050/t FOB and consensus for the December quarter is US$1,350/t, observes the broker, while the implied price of the bid accepted by Pilbara Minerals is US$1,200/t.

The broker's Sell rating and $3.60 target are unchanged. Consensus downgrades for Pilbara Minerals are still likely, cautions Citi.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -86.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT  PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $24.39

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Hold (3) -

Adopting a macro view, Ord Minnett thinks structural challenges remain for active asset managers with profit margins, on average, expected to stabilise, after a period of pressures to the downside, but not improve substantially.

This forecast stands despite the prospect of lower interest rates. Fair value appraisals across the industry have been retained.

For Perpetual, this means Ord Minnett's $27.50 fair value estimate and Hold rating remain unchanged.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $24.39 Difference: $3.11
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 170.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.5, implying annual growth of 146.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 190.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.7, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $1.18

Ord Minnett rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Adopting a macro view, Ord Minnett thinks structural challenges remain for active asset managers with profit margins, on average, expected to stabilise, after a period of pressures to the downside, but not improve substantially.

This forecast stands despite the prospect of lower interest rates. Fair value appraisals across the industry have been retained.

For Platinum Asset Management, this means Ord Minnett's $1.25 fair value estimate and Hold rating remain unchanged.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.07
If PTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of -17.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of -11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REH  REECE LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $28.38

Macquarie rates REH as Underperform (5) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For Reece, the Underperform rating and target price of $19.40 are retained.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $28.38 Difference: minus $8.98 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.37, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 65.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $5.74

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Optimism appears to be cautiously lifting on US contractors heading into the spring season notes Macquarie, with the broker's optimism index showing a rise of 8 percentage points on stronger residential and non-residential new construction.

Forward looking supply indicators continue to improve, and while labour costs remain pressured, availability continues to improve.

For Reliance Worldwide, the Outperform rating and target price of $6.10 are retained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.36
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.05 cents and EPS of 28.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.11 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO  SERKO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $3.55

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

While mindful the key catalyst for Serko is the renewal of the contract with Booking.com, Citi sees downside risk to consensus forecasts due to weaker room rates and completed room-nights for the partnership with Bookings.com.

A stronger NZ dollar than the broker originally forecast is also weighing on forecast earnings.

An update on the Bookings.com contract is expected at or prior to the FY24 result, with a roll-over of current terms likely seen as a
positive according to the analysts.

Buy. Target $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.35
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 147.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC  SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $1.31

Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -

Morgans raises its target for Superloop to $1.50 from $1.10 after management materially upgraded FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) growth guidance for FY25. FY24 guidance was also raised by 2%.

While the company has won a large contract with Origin Energy ((ORG)), the broker points out the core Superloop business is also flying (excluding the Origin deal).

Origin Energy is set to migrate its over 130,000 broadband customers currently served by Aussie Broadband ((ABB)). Superloop sweetened the contract by issuing Origin with 20m shares in two tranches.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.19
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXG  SOUTHERN CROSS GOLD LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.94

Bell Potter rates SXG as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Hold (3) -

Southern Cross Gold's share price has been strongly re-rated in the past three months following the release of high-grade drilling results, which are early confirmation of the potential for continuity of high-grade zones, according to Bell Potter.

Southern Cross Gold is looking for gold and antimony at its 100%-owned Sunday Creek Gold/Antimony Project in Victoria. The company also owns land that contains the key portion of the main drilling area to-date. 

The high grade drilling results are early positive indicators that Sunday Creek’s average resource grade might prove to be significantly higher than the exploration target, explain the analysts.

The broker commences research coverage on the post-discovery early-stage exploration company with a Speculative Hold rating and $2.05 target.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.11
If SXG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 66.90.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 107.78.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ABB Aussie Broadband $3.52 Ord Minnett 4.16 4.89 -14.93%
ALL Aristocrat Leisure $44.30 Morgans 47.00 45.00 4.44%
ANZ ANZ Bank $28.69 Morgans 26.83 24.60 9.07%
BKW Brickworks $30.05 Macquarie 25.15 24.75 1.62%
GMG Goodman Group $30.86 Morgan Stanley 34.00 31.35 8.45%
HHR Hartshead Resources $0.01 Bell Potter 0.03 0.09 -66.67%
JHX James Hardie Industries $59.25 Macquarie 68.20 65.60 3.96%
SKO Serko $3.53 Citi 4.90 4.75 3.16%
SLC Superloop $1.25 Morgans 1.50 1.10 36.36%
Summaries
ABB Aussie Broadband Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.55
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $45.94
ANZ ANZ Bank Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $28.68
BGA Bega Cheese Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $4.14
BGL Bellevue Gold Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.66
BHP BHP Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $43.06
BKW Brickworks Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $30.05
CGF Challenger Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.67
CLG Close the Loop Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.29
CSR CSR Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.83
CUV Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $14.61
FMG Fortescue Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $24.53
GMG Goodman Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $30.96
GWA GWA Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.83
HHR Hartshead Resources Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.01
HLO Helloworld Travel Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $2.90
IFL Insignia Financial Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.35
JHX James Hardie Industries Buy - Citi Overnight Price $61.60
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $61.60
JLG Johns Lyng Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.21
MFG Magellan Financial Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.51
MMS McMillan Shakespeare Initiation of coverage with Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $19.84
MYR Myer Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.86
PLS Pilbara Minerals Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.17
PPT Perpetual Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $24.39
PTM Platinum Asset Management Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.18
REH Reece Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $28.38
RWC Reliance Worldwide Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.74
SKO Serko Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.55
SLC Superloop Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.31
SXG Southern Cross Gold Initiation of coverage with Speculative Hold - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.94
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

2

Friday 15 March 2024

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