Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates 5GG as Buy (1) -

In a very positive announcement (supporting current forecasts), according to Shaw and Partners, Pentanet has extended its GeForce NOW Alliance Agreement with NVIDIA to include New Zealand with a pathway to add neighbouring territories.

The agreement has no finite term and is ongoing, explains the broker.

Pentanet will continue to be the exclusive distributor of GeForce NOW in Australia. The company has already gathered 530,000 GeForce NOW Powered by CloudGG members, serviced by infrastructure located in Perth and Sydney.

The Buy rating and 16c target are unchanged.

This is a summary of research released by Shaw and Partners on March 18.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.078
If 5GG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Default Market Offer (DMO) and Victorian Default Offer (VDO) draft decisions by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) were neutral to slightly better than Macquarie was expecting. 

The DMO/VDO pricing was net down, which flows through to AGL Energy's earnings, explains the analyst. The overall outcome is expected to result in customer discounting and corporate earnings pressure in FY25.

Management at AGL Energy notes price outcomes were better-than-expected in NSW/SA/QLD, offset by a tough outcome in VIC.

The Neutral rating and $9.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $0.66
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates only a minor negative impact on its forecasts for AGL Energy from the draft Default Market Offer for FY25 issued by the Australian Energy Regulator.

The draft sees modest bill reductions across SA and Eastern NSW, but not Western NSW and SEQ, explain the analysts.

Origin Energy had previously flagged the key headwind from wholesale cost allowances in NSW falling by circa -$15/MWh year-on-year.

The Equal-weight rating and $9.99 target are unchanged. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $9.99 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $1.05
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARU as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The Australian government has approved up to US$533m in funding to Arafura Rare Earths through debt facilties. As per Bell Potter, this includes the previously announced $350m alongside additional facilities intended for the ramp up and cost overruns at Nolans.

The broker feels funding risks remain for Arafura Rare Earths, and despite the new facilities providing support expects more is needed to get the project up and runnings. As of late December, the broker had estimated $1.83bn was needed in funding to advance Nolans.

The company remains comitted to completing financing in the third quarter, but Bell Potter considers it more likely this will run into the fourth quarter.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price of 19 cents is retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

Volumes for March-2024 interest rate futures on the ASX are down -18% year-on-year, according to intra-month tracking by Morgan Stanley, though volumes were exceptionally high in March-2023.

The latest numbers imply volumes are  down -0.5% in the 2H of FY24 compared to the 9.5% rise expected by the broker.

Futures trading and OTC clearing represented 21% of ASX revenues in FY23, one of the largest revenue streams for ASX, note the analysts.

The $53.50 target and Underweight rating are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $67.69 Difference: minus $14.19 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Refurbishment activity at Black Cat Syndicate's Paulsens gold operation is ahead of schedule, according to a recent update from the company.

Shaw and Partners points out, to date, refurbishment works required have been less than anticipated, with works continuing to progress within the leach and CIL tanks, conveyors, and acid wash columns. 

The broker maintains its expectations for first gold by the end of the calendar year. The Buy rating and target price of 74 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.54
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 270% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BLD as Hold (3) -

Boral's response committee has recommended shareholders reject a bid from Seven Group Holdings ((SVW)), with an independent report describing the offer as not fair or reasonable.

This independent report assessed Boral's value at $6.50-7.13 per share, with surplus property valued at $1.26-1.44 per share. The offer, comparatively, implied a price of $5.96-6.19 per share.

Bell Potter notes the independent report highlighted the ability of the surplus property portfolio to deliver value creation for shareholders in the future. With the bid a best and final offer, Seven Group Holdings will not increase its price. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.75 from $6.24.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: $0.42
If BLD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees upside to Boss Energy's 30%-owned high-grade Alta Mesa resource and life-of-mine (LOM) estimate following positive drilling results. It's noted the project remains on track for production in mid-2024 ramping to around 1.5mtpa.

Management is currently progressing a study to lift production rates, which the broker considers a key medium-term share price catalyst.

The Outperform rating and $6.00 target for Boss Energy are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $1.18
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DYL as Buy (1) -

The first tranche of Deep Yellow's $220m institutional placement has been successfully completed, with a remaining $79.5m to be completed following the company's general meeting in April. 

The company is intending to raise a further $30m through a retail share placement plan, and Bell Potter expects full take up of the offer given the current stock price.

Funds raised are primarily slated for the advancement of the Tumas project, with potential for early-stage construction to begin following the final investment decision due in the first quarter of FY25.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.90 from $1.81.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.675
If DYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GDG as Initiation of coverage with Buy, Higher Risk (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Generation Development, a specialist provider of innovative tax-effective investment solutions (mainly investment bonds). The broker begins with a Buy, Higher Risk rating and $2.50 target.

The group also has a 49.2% stake in Lonsec Holdings Pty Ltd, a leading provider of investment research, ratings, consulting
and managed accounts in Australia, according to the analysts.

Investment bonds appeal to individuals with high marginal tax rates, explains the broker, as the bonds may hold a broad range of
asset classes, with earnings and distributions taxed at a maximum effective rate of 30%.

This maximum tax rate can be reduced due to tax credits and active tax management strategies.

Thanks to superannuation tailwinds, Ord Minnett forecast a positive flow outlook and strong EPS growth for Generation Development.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.59
If GDG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ING as Buy (1) -

Despite a decline in wheat and soybean pricing, which Bell Potter expects to drive down feed cost indicators to date by -13%, Inghams Group shares have remained fairly depressed following its first half result release.

The broker had already assumed the company would benefit from a declining feed cost of goods sold in FY25, but notes the impact could be more material than it had allowed for if current levels are sustained.

The recently announced acquisition of Bostock Bros, at a cost of -NZ$35.3m, also drives net profit forecast upgrades from the broker, with estimates up 1% in FY25 and FY26 each.

The Buy rating and target price of $4.35 are retained.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.83
If ING meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

According to Bell Potter, Iperionx's technology has the potential to disrupt the titanium markets by materially lowering production costs. Further, lowered costs could see titanium able to compete with other speciality allows, including stainless steel.

Initiating coverage on the company, the broker notes the technology addresses security of supply concern in the US, where around 95% of titanium metal is imported. 

The company intends to commission a phase 1 commercial titanium production facility in Virginia from mid-year, funded by a US$12.7m Department of Defence grant.

Phase 2 will see an expansion to 2,000 tonnes per annum by 2026, and Bell Potter expects this will also be eligible for government grants.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1.7
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

While Macquarie remains cautious in the near-term on KMD Brands, 1H revenue and earnings were in line with pre-guidance and some improvement in 2H sales trading should result in better operating leverage.

A 1H decline in sales of -14.5% was offset by a 10bps year-on-year increase in the gross margin to 58.8% and a -$16m decline
in opex, explains the analyst. No interim dividend was declared.

The wholesale inventory reduction cycle for Rip Curl and Oboz should come to an end in FY24, which the broker expects will support a recovery in the wholesale channel in FY25.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and the target rises to 51c from 47c.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.02
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results for KMD Brands were in line with (downgraded) pre-guidance, while sales growth of -3.5% year-on-year for the beginning of H2 was an improvement on the -14.5% in H1.

As the company has missed earnings expectations several times, the broker lacks confidence medium-term targets can be achieved. The near-term outlook for the Kathmandu brand is considered challenging due to past execution issues and a more competitive backdrop.

The Equal-weight rating is retained but the target falls to 55c from 80c. The broker sets a target multiple at a circa -30-40% discount to the five year average. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.06
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

UBS found KMD Brands' H1 performance in line, but also notes the retailer had issued a profit warning beforehand. Negative sentiment continues to impact, notes the broker.

UBS singles out Kathmandu in particular as performing disappointingly. Management has indicated there's very limited distressed inventory left and thus the broker sees limited discounting happening in 2H24.

The result itself revealed slightly better EBITDA as management had pulled back on the opex, but finance costs proved a nasty surprise to UBS, dragging the net profit below expectations.

There's no interim dividend for shareholders. Estimates have been cut. Neutral rating retained (UBS indicates confidence needs to be rebuild). Target sinks to NZ56c from NZ62c.

Current Price is $0.49. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MRM as Buy (1) -

While offshore wind currently accounts for 25% of MMA Offshore's revenue, Shaw and Partners points out demand is vast, although long dated.

The broker expects the company could maintain offshore wind as a stable source of revenue through capital expenditure and maintenance.

The broker also sees potential for the company to grow proportional revenue through investment in geotechnical survey capability and undersea engineering.

Capital expenditure in Asia, excluding China, is estimated at -US$143bn through to 2023. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.60 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.25
If MRM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, New Hope's interim financials proved in line with the quarterlies that had been released prior. Citi's dividend forecast was 18c and the coal miner only announced 17c.

Probably of greater importance, the Bengalla growth project is tracking ahead of schedule with unit costs expected to fall. Company management expects New Acland to ramp to circa 5mtpa by FY27 with FOR cash costs to compete with Bengalla.

Also, New Hope has increased its stake in Malaba Resources to 19.9%. Citi analysts have updated their commodity prices forecasts, but this has had no impact on the Neutral rating or the target price at $4.85.

Estimates have lifted.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.25
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

New Hope's 1H result and 17cps fully franked interim dividend were largely as Macquarie expected. While FY24 volume guidance was unchanged, a 25% increase in 2H volumes will be required to reach the level.

In the broker's view, the FY24 volume increase is offset by a weaker thermal coal outlook, and an Underperform rating is kept for New Hope due to free cash flow headwinds and a higher multiple relative to peers.

The $4.00 target is maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes few surprises within 1H results by New Hope, given key metrics were pre-reported, and all management guidance was re-affirmed.

By comparison to more leveraged peers, the broker highlights New Hope has less volatility due to defensive attributes such as a solid balance sheet, 56% cash margins and steady dividends. 

The interim dividend of 17cps beat the 12-15c range the analyst had previously anticipated.

The Hold rating and $4.80 target are maintained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.2
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Interim results for New Hope were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The impact of a -58% fall in average prices was more than offset by higher coal sales and lower unit cash costs, explains the analyst.

The broker now forecasts fully franked dividends of 34cps for FY24 after the interim payout of 17cps was higher-than-expected.

Management currently prefers dividends over a buyback given legal uncertainty over the New Acland Stage 3 mine in Queensland, notes Ord Minnett.

The Hold rating and $5.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.1
If NHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine was left unable to sell ore during January and much of February, as the company awaited renewal of its Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya mining licences. These delays were industry wide, but the license was issued in late February.

As per Bell Potter, ore sales have recommenced at record rates. The company is guiding to March quarter group earnings of US$65-75m, compared with the broker's forecast of around US$100m. 

Bell Potter points out these events were largely outside of the company's control. As such, it would consider any share price weakness off the back of the news a buying opportunity.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $1.53.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.7
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Default Market Offer (DMO) and Victorian Default Offer (VDO) draft decisions by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) were neutral to slightly better than Macquarie was expecting.

The DMO/VDO pricing was net down and Macquarie expects this will result in customer discounting and corporate earnings pressure in FY25.

Management at Origin Energy considers the DMO/VDO draft is consistent with recent guidance that pricing outcomes are tougher.

The Neutral rating and $9.29 target are unchanged.

Target price is $9.29 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: $0.18
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates little impact on its forecasts for Origin Energy from the draft Default Market Offer for FY25 issued by the Australian Energy Regulator.

The draft sees modest bill reductions across SA and Eastern NSW, but not Western NSW and SEQ, explain the analysts.

Origin Energy had previously flagged the key headwind from wholesale cost allowances in NSW falling by circa -$15/MWh year-on-year.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $8.88 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.29, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments is scheduled for interim results release on 26th March. The company has already guided towards $200m in EBIT, Citi points out.

The analysts are toying with two scenarios that could have a dramatic impact on the company's future: merging with Myer ((MYR)) and splitting off Peter Alexander and Smiggle.

Regarding the H1 financials, Citi is positioned for weaker margins, alongside an interim dividend of 61c.

Premier Investments is currently rated Buy. Price target is $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.91 Difference: $0.09
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.30, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Management at Pacific Smiles has granted Genesis Capital the opportunity to conduct further due diligence on a non-exclusive basis after Genesis increased its bid to $1.75/share from $1.40/share.

The Overweight rating and $1.90 target price are unchanged as Morgan Stanley believes there is scope for shares to trade higher than the latest bid price. Industry view is In-Line.

The implied earnings multiple in the latest bid price suggests a material discount to previous transactions involving lower-quality assets, in the broker's view.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.44
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

For Citi to turn more positive on Treasury Wine Estates, all else being equal, evidence is needed of better operating momentum in
the core business.

Sales in the US retail channel declined by -4% on the previous corresponding period for the four weeks ending February 24, notes the broker. This outcome reflects a deterioration relative to the four weeks ending  January 27, which saw flat sales.

According to the analysts, Treasury's sales continues to underperform key competitors, suggesting it may be losing share in the US retail channel, though the impact may be partially offset by more positive on-premise trends.

The $11.52 target and Neutral rating for Treasury Wine Estates are maintained.

Target price is $11.52 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources