Australian Broker Call

October 14, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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Last Updated: 12:50 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
OSH - OIL SEARCH Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
STO - SANTOS Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
TCL - TRANSURBAN GROUP Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
FAR  FAR LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $0.08

Morgans rates FAR as Add (1) -

Morgans runs through several scenarios to test its valuation of the stock and envisages the risk/reward proposition as heavily skewed to the upside.

The joint venture outcome around Conoco's stake in Senegal represents the near-term catalyst, if FAR can trigger its pre-emptive option to make a deal which increases its equity share of the project. After a change of analyst and review of assumptions the target rises to 21c from 17c. Add rating retained.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.13
If FAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.15, suggesting upside of 78.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $5.87

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Iluka released a weak market update yesterday. Citi analysts comment the attempted US$60/t zircon price increase obviously has not gone down well with the customers.

Iluka now needs to achieve bumper sales in Q4 in order to meet Citi's projection for the year. Drawing a parallel with last financial year, this is certainly not impossible, finds Citi. Buy rating retained, as well as the $7.90 price target.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $2.03
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 489.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka's mineral sands sales were up 8.8% ytd in the Sep Q but it was about rutile, with zircon sales falling 4.9%. Net realised price is down 13.5% on a year ago.

Iluka's attempt to lift zircon prices has only been partially achieved, the broker notes, due to various issues in the Chinese ceramics industry, while rutile's recovery continues. The broker has adjusted forecasts but retains Neutral and a $6.40 target.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $0.53
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1174.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates ILU as Sell (5) -

September quarter revenue was below Deutsche Bank's estimates. The broker observes attempts to increase the zircon price were largely unsuccessful, with realised prices edging down a further 2% in the quarter.

Rutile prices were modestly higher. Deutsche Bank remains slightly negative on the Sierra Rutile transaction and there was no news on that front.

Sell rating retained. Target reduced to $5.00 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ILU as Underperform (5) -

September quarter mineral sands production was 18% higher than Macquarie expected but sales volumes were 23% lower than expected. Average realised prices for zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile were 10% lower than expected.

The broker observes underlying demand for titanium minerals has started to improve but demand for zircon remains weak. The broker is disappointed the company failed to achieve a modest price increase, given it suffered a minor loss of market share as a result.

Macquarie believes the share price is factoring in a strong recovery into 2017 but suspects the market is unlikely to absorb materially higher prices at this juncture. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.60 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 130.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ILU as Hold (3) -

The September quarter production report signalled revenue was weak while production was better than Ord Minnett expected. Zircon markets remain weak while the broker observes titanium feedstocks continue to improve.

A Hold rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $6.50 from $6.80.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $0.63
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 195.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

September quarter production was ahead of UBS estimates.  Sales of zircon were lower but offset by a lift in rutile sales. Lower zircon sales reflected weak demand in China and the US and a reluctance from buyers as Iluka tried to lift the price, UBS observes.

The broker lowers zircon sales estimates to reflect the company's pricing strategy and lifts prices slightly. this results in a lift in earnings estimates of 7% for 2016 but off a low base. Buy rating and $7.50 target retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.87 Difference: $1.63
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 146.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $1.78

UPDATED

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Gas has been awarded the right to negotiate a final agreement for the acquisition of 100% of the producing Bauna and 50% of the developing Tartaruga fields, offshore Brazil.

Macquarie believes the deal is transformational, with the combined value of assets on offer US$1.2-2.2bn. The acquisition would shift the company into production immediately but Karoon is unlikely to acquire the full entitlement. Management has indicated a partner could potentially be brought in to help fund the acquisition.

Outperform and $2.90 target retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $1.125
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KSL  KINA SECURITIES LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $1.02

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

The company has won a mandate to provide fund administration services for NASFUND, PNG's largest superannuation fund in terms of membership.

The win is a clear positive, Morgans believes. The contract is for five years and makes Kina the dominant administrator in PNG.

Add rating retained. The stock has delivered on all targets since its listing and the broker considers it undervalued in terms of its longer-term growth profile. Target rises to $1.54 from $1.47.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.52
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $7.59

ADDED

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts note the Statement of Issues released by the ACCC yesterday casts considerable doubts on Link’s ability to acquire Pillar, the super administration business owned by the NSW Government.

Neutral rating retained, as well as the $8.30 price target.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.59 Difference: $0.71
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 158.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 40.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

The ACCC has released preliminary views on the potential acquisition of Pillar. The main concern of the regulator is that the acquisition will  remove the only superannuation administration services provider with the demonstrated capacity to supply these services to larger funds in competition with Link.

UBS believes, should the preliminary view emerge as the final decision, and Link is precluded from acquiring Pillar, it would be a logical response for Link to engage with Pillar's existing fund customers directly. Target price of $8.40 and Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.59 Difference: $0.81
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 158.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $27.94

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Revised financials signal life insurance earnings rebounded strongly in the first half which suggests to Macquarie the disposal multiple was not as attractive as originally perceived.

The broker downgrades earnings estimates by 1%, suspecting the bank will be under pressure to sustain its elevated dividend. While the valuation remains attractive, further normalising of credit charges and the impact of higher amortisation expense is likely to hamper near-term.

Neutral retained. Target slips to $29.50 from $31.00.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.94 Difference: $1.56
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 181.00 cents and EPS of 232.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.7, implying annual growth of -4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 165.20 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.2, implying annual growth of -1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank has released revised financials following the sale of 80% of the life insurance business.

Ord Minnett's cash earnings forecast for FY16 of $6.38bn is expected to result in 3% underlying growth in revenue, expense and earnings but a 3% contraction in earnings per share given the significant rights issue that accompanied the first half result.

Accordingly, the sustainability of the bank's dividend will continue to be questioned. A Hold rating is retained. Target is reduced to $28 from $29.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.94 Difference: $0.06
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.7, implying annual growth of -4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 231.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.2, implying annual growth of -1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $3.05

UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Despite subdued economic conditions, the company has affirmed full year earnings guidance for higher earnings in FY17. Deutsche Bank forecasts growth in underlying earnings per share of 5% in FY17.

The first quarter trading update suggested the integration of IntegraColor is going well and the business is performing in line with expectations.

Deutsche Bank retains Hold rating and $2.75 target.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Orora has reiterated full year guidance and signalled the first quarter trading was in line with expectations. Macquarie observes flat conditions continue in key markets and this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future.

The stock remains the broker's top pick in the packaging sector, underpinned by defensive end markets and the strong cash generation. Outperform rating and target unchanged at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.15
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $5.56

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts consider the chances the market might turn more positive on crude oil pricing in the year ahead, but for LNG oversupply remains the all-dominant moniker. Citi thinks this dichotomy is going to be reflected in winners and losers inside the energy sector.

Regardless of market sentiment, Citi's analysis shows earnings and DCF’s are significantly more levered to oil than LNG spot and/or contract prices. Buy rating retained. Target $6.53.

Target price is $6.53 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $0.97
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 66.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of 83.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has lowered its forecast pricing for oil, most notably dropping its long term Brent price to US$65/bbl from US$70/bbl. On the broker's valuation, Origin's current trading price implies US$64 oil at a US$75c Aussie.

Target lowered to $5.40 from $5.90. Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of 83.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $7.23

Citi rates OSH as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts consider the chances the market might turn more positive on crude oil pricing in the year ahead, but for LNG oversupply remains the all-dominant moniker. Citi thinks this dichotomy is going to be reflected in winners and losers inside the energy sector.

Regardless of market sentiment, Citi's analysis shows earnings and DCF’s are significantly more levered to oil than LNG spot and/or contract prices. Sell. Target $7.00.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 4.06 cents and EPS of 8.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 88.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.55 cents and EPS of 28.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 133.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates OSH as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse has lowered its forecast pricing for oil, most notably dropping its long term Brent price to US$65/bbl from US$70/bbl. On the broker's valuation, Oil Search's current trading price implies US$70 oil at a US$75c Aussie.

Hence valuation was already stretched, and now the broker has dropped its target to $5.80 from $6.30. This has prompted a downgrade to Underperform.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.15 cents and EPS of 11.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.06 cents and EPS of 30.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 133.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $3.16

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas is re-launching a daily service to Beijing in 2017. Ord Minnett suspects it will be unlikely to move the dial on earnings in isolation but does signal the company is remaining agile in a volatile environment.

The broker believes a key motivating factor is the likely uplift to the airline's domestic network from the passenger feed. Buy rating and $4.75 price target retained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $1.59
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $3.72

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts consider the chances the market might turn more positive on crude oil pricing in the year ahead, but for LNG oversupply remains the all-dominant moniker. Citi thinks this dichotomy is going to be reflected in winners and losers inside the energy sector.

Regardless of market sentiment, Citi's analysis shows earnings and DCF’s are significantly more levered to oil than LNG spot and/or contract prices. Buy rating retained. Target $6.08.

Target price is $6.08 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $2.36
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.92, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 228.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 373.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 2110.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates STO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse has lowered its forecast pricing for oil, most notably dropping its long term Brent price to US$65/bbl from US$70/bbl. On the broker's valuation, Santos' current trading price implies US$62 oil at a US$75c Aussie.

Target falls to $3.50 from $3.90, prompting a downgrade to Underperform.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.92, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 373.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 2110.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $5.02

UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Assuming a 50:50 mix of revenue across wagering:casino games UBS estimates that Sun Bets - Tabcorp's JV with News UK - will need to achieve around 1.7% market share in the UK online market to break even in FY17.

The UK market is fragmented and UBS envisages a good opportunity for Sun Bets to leverage its JV partner's advertising reach.

The broker suspects Tabcorp's wagering revenue growth peaked in FY15 and, while the company has done a good job in migrating players to online from its retail business, competition has intensified and revenue growth in wagering is likely to be in the low single digits.

Target of $4.49 and Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Transportation

Overnight Price: $10.66

Citi rates TCL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi analysts seem okay with the traffic numbers released yesterday. More importantly, they believe recent share price weakness on adjustments in global bond yields has gone too far.

Citi analsts see the stock as well supported by growth opportunities plus earnings upside risk in the medium term from higher bond yields. On top of this they also consider potential future blue sky opportunities from road pricing reform, and -further out- the benefits from autonomous vehicles.

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target price remains $11.75.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.09
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Transurban's Sep Q toll numbers came in a little below the broker's forecast, reflecting slower car growth in Sydney and a sharp slowing in truck growth. Other states fared better.

The broker is none too concerned given the recent sell-off in yield stocks is offering up an attractive entry point. The spread of Transurban's dividend yield over the government bond is at its widest since 2008, the broker notes. Outperform and $12.50 target retained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.84
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 50.50 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

First quarter traffic data varied from Macquarie's expectations in that Sydney's traffic appears to be starting to slow. Melbourne is being affected by road works while Brisbane's growth is being supported by new roads. US road assets remain strong.

Macquarie reduces traffic growth expectations for Sydney roads in FY17. The stock remains compelling in the broker's view, as is much of the infrastructure sector. Target is reduced to $12.39 from $12.43. Outperform reiterated.

Target price is $12.39 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.73
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 59.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Overweight (1) -

First quarter revenue growth was strong overall. Morgan Stanley considers the growth outlook for free cash flow and growth projects highly attractive.

Upcoming catalysts may include announcements on the I-66 and Victoria's western distributor. The broker also notes the spread between the Australian government 10-year bond yield and Transurban's 12-month forecast dividend yield is 4.8%, the highest point for the last five years.

Overweight rating retained. Target is steady at $11.96. Cautious sector view retained.

Target price is $11.96 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.3
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the 11% growth in the September quarter a respectable figure against a full-year forecast for 9%. The quarter did include negative construction impact on the largest asset, CityLink.

Brisbane networks delivered stronger-than-expected revenue growth of 7% while Sydney experienced a greater-than-expected slowing in the revenue growth rate to 8%.

The broker remains positive on the fundamentals for the stock and retains a Buy rating and $13.15 target.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $2.49
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1066.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 180.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTS  TATTS GROUP LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $3.68

UBS rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

UBS analyses the download trend in Australian lottery apps. The entry of secondary lottery operators provides a new option to buy lottery tickets on international lottery draws but also poses a competitive risk to Australian primary lottery providers.

The broker believes the impact on Tatts will probably depend on whether Lottoland - licensed in Northern Territory since 2015 - is growing the market and whether the 30% of downloads noted in September equates to 30% of online sales going forward.

UBS retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $3.82 from $3.97.

Target price is $3.82 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.14
If TTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $29.48

Citi rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts consider the chances the market might turn more positive on crude oil pricing in the year ahead, but for LNG oversupply remains the all-dominant moniker. Citi thinks this dichotomy is going to be reflected in winners and losers inside the energy sector.

Regardless of market sentiment, Citi's analysis shows earnings and DCF’s are significantly more levered to oil than LNG spot and/or contract prices. Buy rating retained. Target $33.22.

Target price is $33.22 Current Price is $29.48 Difference: $3.74
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 127.34 cents and EPS of 153.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 135.47 cents and EPS of 170.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.7, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates WPL as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse has lowered its forecast pricing for oil, most notably dropping its long term Brent price to US$65/bbl from US$70/bbl. On the broker's valuation, Woodside's current trading price implies US$72 oil at a US$75c Aussie.

Target falls to $25.50 from $26.80. Underperform retained.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $29.48 Difference: minus $3.98 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 92.79 cents and EPS of 116.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 85.89 cents and EPS of 107.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.7, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
FAR - FAR Ltd Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.08
ILU - ILUKA RESOURCES Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.87
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.87
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.87
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.87
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.87
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.87
KAR - KAROON GAS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.78
KSL - KINA SECURITIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.02
LNK - LINK ADMINISTRATION Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.59
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.59
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $27.94
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $27.94
ORA - ORORA Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.05
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.05
ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.56
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.56
OSH - OIL SEARCH Sell - Citi Overnight Price $7.23
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.23
QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.16
STO - SANTOS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.72
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.72
TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.02
TCL - TRANSURBAN GROUP Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $10.66
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.66
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.66
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.66
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $10.66
TTS - TATTS GROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.68
WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Buy - Citi Overnight Price $29.48
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $29.48
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

3. Hold

10

5. Sell

6

Friday 14 October 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.