Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as No Rating (-1) -

The Victorian government has announced its intention to see the closure of all brown coal fired stations by 2035, which for AGL Energy will see the closure of Loy Yang B timed with Loy Yang A in 2035. Macquarie expects this could simplify closure and remediation negotiations. 

The broker is more concerned by suggestions that the government may look to start an energy retailer. The current Victorian Default Offer (VDO) ensures fair consumer pricing, and Macquarie sees possibility that the government may seek to reduce retailers margins.

Macquarie expects AGL Energy can benefit from retail load repricing in the near-term. The broker is on research restrictions. 

Current Price is $6.56. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Having met with public and private companies that operate within Aristocrat Leisure's verticals, Macquarie has ascertained Aristocrat Leisure continues to be seen as the market leading company.

The broker anticipates Aristocrat Leisure's iGaming product will launch in the December quarter, and that iGaming legislation will accelerate. 

Macquarie predicts a total addressable market of US$22bn by 2030, and assumes 20% market share could boost Aristocrat Leisure's stock price by $3.00 per share.

The Outperform rating and target price of $44.00 are retained.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $35.49 Difference: $8.51
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.71, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

With ANZ Bank announcing one-off items for its H2 financial result, Ord Minnett has updated its modeling.

Accumulate rating retained, alongside a price target of $26.20.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $25.59 Difference: $0.61
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.61, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -

Office REITs are a value trap, assures Ord Minnett, with the broker warning there remains significant risk to the downside from falling rents and rising cap rates.

Ord Minnett's preference among REITs is for convenience retail.

Australian Unity Office Fund's price target falls to $1.78 from $1.91 on further reductions in forecasts. Hold.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.5
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Neutral (3) -

Beacon Lighting's trading update has triggered no changes at Citi. Management at the company is anticipating slower growth ahead because numbers will start comparing to the easing of covid restrictions twelve months earlier.

Citi analysts observe their forecast for H1 is well above consensus. This latest trading update suggests consensus will have to move upwards, the broker suggests.

Neutral. Target $2.53.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.68
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

Steel prices have taken a substantial tumble in recent months, and with the industry outlook continuing to weaken Macquarie predicts further downside to Asian steel prices and spread. The broker updates its earnings forecasts for BlueScope Steel -14%, -22% and 36% through to FY25.

The broker does feel BlueScope Steel is progressing well on a complex decarbonisation path. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $16.35 from $18.25.

Target price is $16.35 Current Price is $16.27 Difference: $0.08
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.51, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has highlighted a lack of visibility over Carnarvon Energy's pathway to a final investment decision on its Dorado project given approval delays and cost and design uncertainty.

While the broker remains attracted to both Dorado's and Pavo's resources, it could take time and more capital to unlock potential.

With $105m in cash at the end of the third quarter, Macquarie sees Carnarvon Energy funded for at least several quarters but considers another equity raise before a final investment decision on Dorado is reached a possibility. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $0.16 from $0.24.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.015
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Cleanaway Waste Management's updated guidance including the acquired Global Renewables Holdings is, underlying, in line with forecasts that were based on guidance provided in August.

Buy rating retained. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.53
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises has reported slowing web traffic in key markets in the first quarter, suggesting some easing of demand according to Macquarie. 

With the Domino's Pizza Enterprises app outperforming main competitor Pizza Hut in all regions except Malaysia and Singapore, the broker sees opportunity for further brand awareness and market share in these geographies in coming years. 

Marking to spot yen exchange rates has driven a -10.5% decline to Macquarie's estimated earnings for FY23. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $63.30 from $74.90.

Target price is $63.30 Current Price is $59.78 Difference: $3.52
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.67, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is of the view that the threat of electric vehicles for service station REITs has resulted in many investors significantly undervaluing those REITs' underlying land banks.

The market is currently significantly undervaluing the combined 2.6m sqm of land owned by Waypoint REIT and Dexus Convenience says the broker.

Ord Minnett remains convinced underlying land values and rental growth should mitigate some, though not all, of the pressures from rising interest rates.

Accumulate. Target $3.37.

Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.61
If DXC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Accumulate (2) -

Office REITs are a value trap, assures Ord Minnett, with the broker warning there remains significant risk to the downside from falling rents and rising cap rates.

Ord Minnett's preference among REITs is for convenience retail.

Elanor Commercial Property Fund's price target falls to 99c from $1.04 on further reductions in forecasts. Accumulate.

Target price is $0.99 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.065
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -

No specific reasons were given, but Integral Diagnostics has called off the acquisition of Exact Radiology. Citi responds by removing the deal from its modeling.

Also assuming a slower pace of margin recovery and increased costs of debt translates into reduced EPS forecasts for the years ahead.

Target price falls to $3.15 from $3.70. Buy. Citi suggests the termination will likely be well received by investors, also because management is already busy integrating two other acquisitions.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.55
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IDX as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Integral Diagnostics has terminated its agreement to buy Exact Radiology.

Credit Suisse says the $37.5m cash payment will improve the company's FY23 debt position but the broker says the termination reflects a challenged industry.

The broker lowers margin forecasts given the weakness of the company's covid recovery.

EPS forecasts fall -10.8% to -22.7% across FY23 to FY25.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, the broker spying material risks to consensus forecasts given likely profit falls in New Zealand, margin pressure as cost inflation outpaces indexation, weak volumes and an overestimation of the FY23 contribution for Peloton and Horizon purchases.

Target price falls to $2.63 from $3.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.03
If IDX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Neutral (3) -

Integral Diagnostics has terminated its Exact Radiology acquisition, and Macquarie has subsequently removed the previously estimated 5% annualised earnings per share accretion. 

Despite industry commentary pointing to improved diagnostic imaging activity, Macquarie remains cautious on Integral Diagnostics' near-term outlook given higher operating costs and challenges in New Zealand. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.83 from $3.18.

Target price is $2.83 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.23
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Imdex' AGM revealed Sep Q revenues were up 22% year on year compared to UBS' forecast of 9%. Net growth was driven by 13% growth in sensors on hire as well as improved average revenue per user following recent price increases.

By region, growth was across the board, with especially strong results achieved in Australia , the broker notes, where exploration activity remains robust. UBS is attracted to Imdex's solid leverage to the mineral exploration cycle but finds valuation a bit rich.

Neutral retained, target rises to $2.28 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.24
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

OZ Minerals' quarterly update revealed higher-than-expected costs while Citi found the production report "mixed".

Management has only now reduced gold production guidance while lifting cost expectations.

Citi analysts don't offer anything in terms of educated commentary.

As Citi is under research restrictions, as it is advising BHP Group in the latter's attempt to acquire OZ Minerals, no rating or price target is provided.

Current Price is $25.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

OZ Minerals' September-quarter production missed consensus and Credit Suisse's forecasts by -4% and -7% due largely to lower grades at Prominent Hill, as did C1 cash costs and all in sustaining costs, which fell -15% and -25% short of consensus.

This was despite a currency windfall.

Gold production proved a beat but management downgraded gold guidance for Prominent Hill by -9% due to lower stockpile processing and higher group costs.

The broker observes Carrapateena's volumes appear to have plateaued. On the upside, management expects no reduction in medium-term copper production from the mine due to the delay.

Meanwhile, the broker says a capital raising could be an option over a sell-down of the West Musgrave Project to fund a three-year $3.5bn capital spend.

The broker forecasts no dividend for 2023.

Neutral rating and $28 target price retained but EPS forecasts take a big hit.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.11 Difference: $2.89
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

OZ Minerals has delivered a solid production result in the third quarter, suggests Macquarie. 30,000 tonnes of copper and 56,300 ounces of gold beat Macquarie's expectations by 2% and 9% respectively, driven by a strong performance at Carrapateena. 

While the company lowered full year gold production guidance it has maintained its copper targets, and Macquarie notes Carrapateena will need to deliver a strong fourth quarter to realise guidance.

Macquarie is on research restrictions. 

Current Price is $25.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

OZ Minerals' September-quarter update disappointed Morgan Stanley, as production fell (a -11% miss) and cost rose (a -13% to -14% miss).

Management guided to higher costs.

The broker observes copper production at Prominent Hill is below YTD run rates, and an improvement will be needed in the December quarter if full-year guidance is to be met.

Equal-weight rating and $23.10 target price retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $25.11 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OZL as Hold (3) -

When viewed against the backdrop of industry challenges, Morgans found the quarterly performance from OZ Minerals "sound". The broker still expects BHP Group ((BHP)) to return for a full take-over offer.

As the company has a busy year ahead, Morgans also thinks BHP can wait for a possible misstep along the way.

Morgans suggests traders should take profits while investors should consider downside risk in case M&A expectations fade.

Hold rating retained. Price target has gained 30c to $25.70. EPS forecasts have been culled.

Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $25.11 Difference: $0.59
If OZL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Accumulate (2) -

While OZ Minerals reported a 9% quarter-on-quarter production improvement, it disappointed Ord Minnett's expectations of an 11% improvement. Unit costs also improved 11% quarter-on-quarter, but the company raised full year guidance 11%. 

The broker was concerned by the sharp increase in cash burn in the quarter to -$140m, requiring the company to draw down $200m in debt.

Ord Minnett considers OZ Minerals to be in a holding pattern until BHP Group ((BHP)) returns with a better offer. The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price decreases to $27.00 from $27.40.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $25.11 Difference: $2.29
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

OZ Minerals' Sep Q copper and gold production and costs were broadly in line with UBS' forecasts.

The focus remains on corporate interest from BHP Group ((BHP)), although BHP has said OZ is not a "must have" and OZ believes the $25 bid to date undervalues the company's growth projects.

Otherwise, the focus is on OZ executing on growth plans across Prominent Hill, Carrapateena and West Musgrave, UBS notes, and any sell down of the latter.

Neutral and $26.50 target retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.11 Difference: $1.39
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLY as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Playside Studios has no fewer than 13 new titles in pre-production, which will provide a tailwind for the remainder of FY23.

In addition, the company's work-for-hire strategy continues to be executed, with the broker pointing at another extension and expansion of the Meta Platform contract.

Speculative Buy. Target 85c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.265
If PLY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley raises ResMed's target price to $35.20 from $31.70 ahead of its September-quarter earnings report this Friday, after adjusting for currency movements.

The broker expects the company will retain market share gains garnered from the Philips recall, and this growth will compound on the higher FY22 base.

Meanwhile, card-to-cloud devices remain hampered by global chip shortages.

Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $35.20 Current Price is $35.19 Difference: $0.01
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.41, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi thinks the September quarter made for a "solid" start into FY23, albeit the overall performance slightly missed the broker's expectations.

South32 has reiterated FY23 guidance, with exception for a -5% cut to anticipated Illawara met coal production numbers.

Citi is not fussed about it, retaining its Buy rating and leaving the $4.60 price target untouched. Earnings estimate has been lowered by -3% for FY23.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.95
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32's September-quarter trading update proved a mixed bag as scheduled maintenance and poor weather hit production.

Credit Suisse says aluminium, manganese and copper all outpaced despite maintenance imposts at Worsley alumina.

But management guides to a -5% lower outlook for coal.

Worsley management sees a potential shortfall in domestic thermal coal and the division is expected to start importing from Asia, an added cost that the broker expects will be offset by currency movements.

Net cash fell -US$92m to US$446m due to higher working capital. EPS forecasts fall -18% for FY23 to reflect rising costs, weaker production and nickel discounts.

Outperform rating retained on valuation. Target price falls to $4.10 from $4.45.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.45
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 has reported a mixed first quarter, with strong copper, met coal and manganese production offset by lower alumina and base metal volumes.

Despite a slow start to the year and a -5% production guidance downgrade from South32, Macquarie anticipates improved production rates from multiple business divisions in the second half. Accounting for first quarter results, the broker lowers its full year earnings per share forecast -17%.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.40 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.75
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32's September-quarter update broadly met Morgan Stanley's forecasts, as scheduled outages and industrial action resulted in a -5% cut to production guidance.

The broker says sales now need to play catch up to meet FY23 forecasts and the broker considers this achievable.

South32 completed its $50m buyback during the quarter.

Overweight rating and $5.30 target price retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $1.65
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Morgans found South32's Q1 update rather disappointing. The following response says it all: "not the kind of start to the year we were expecting".

Production numbers for all of coal, alumina and nickel underwhelmed. Though the broker remains of the view South32 remains in "robust" shape.

Add rating retained. Target price has lost -10c to $5.30. Both EPS and DPS forecasts have been culled.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $1.65
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has lowered forecasts post what the broker describes was a quarterly report that revealed several soft operations, if not "lacklustre", particularly regarding metallurgical coal.

The broker had already turned more cautious on the outlook for commodity prices earlier this month.

Higher operating costs remain a feature and Ord Minnett notes South32 is no longer experiencing cost relief from a lower AUD at the Worsley and Illawara operations.

The stock has been downgraded to Hold from Buy (two steps) while the price target falls to $4.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.45
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's quarterly production result was soft, UBS notes, reflecting planned maintenance, expansion tie-ins and industrial action. FY23 guidance is mostly unchanged but relies on a strong second half recovery across most assets.

Cost guidance is unchanged, with weaker producer currencies in Australia, Brazil and South Africa set to lower US$ costs. Cash generation in the quarter was reasonable, UBS suggests, despite lower commodity prices.

Target falls to $5.50 from $5.60, Buy retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $1.85
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie has downgraded its rating on Sims given ongoing deterioration of the global economic outlook, with Macquarie's economic team expecting recessions in both the US and Europe. 

The broker also remains concerned about Sims' high leverage to volumes, noting margins are susceptible to a volume contraction. Macquarie is now expecting earlier than expected margin pressure to impact on FY23 and FY24. 

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $10.80 from $14.10.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $12.77 Difference: minus $1.97 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.02, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

Syrah Resources has been granted US$220m from the US Department of Energy to expand Vidalia. Credit Suisse says this should fund roughly 50% of stage 2 capital expenditure.

News of the grant follows hot on the heels of a recent US$102m loan to kickstart the project.

The broker notes this significantly derisks Vidalia and the company's balance sheet; and underpins a lower cost of capital in the future.

Meanwhile, Balama delivered a maiden positive margin in the September quarter thanks to inventory destocking. The broker notes Balama burnt another -US$15m to -US$20m in the quarter but says the cash balance of US$136m should shield it from any disruptions.

Credit Suisse says Vidalia and offtakes have now largely been priced in but suspects there may be further upside given geopolitics.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $2.35 from $1.35 to reflect the US grant.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's research suggests the cut off point for when FOMO kicks in through increased sales for lottery tickets is when a jackpot value rises above $80m.

Lottery Corp has made the decision to lift the Powerball jackpot to $100m a fortnight ago, and to $160m this week. This means, suggests the broker, the company is successfully using its lever to compensate for the weaker jackpot sequence thus far in FY23.

Accumulate rating retained. Price target is $4.95.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.77
If TLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Buy (1) -

Judging from Ord Minnett's update, there are plural pros and cons, headwinds and benefits that make up the outlook for TPG Telecom.

The broker is, overall, positive about the company's prospects, but acknowledges headwinds from, among other factors, rising interest rates.

The balance sheet is in focus too and Ord Minnett suggests selling off the wholesale residential network should provide balance sheet support.

Significant downward adjustments have been made to forecasts nevertheless, with rising interest rates turning into a major burden to carry for the telco.

Target price reduces to $5.70 from $6.55. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.12
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy's September-quarter update missed Credit Suisse's refining margin forecasts but volume was in line.

The broker cuts refinining margin assumptions and adjusts currency and margin assumptions, while including the Coles Express acquisition.

EPS forecasts fall -5.4% for FY22 and -10.6% for FY23 and FY24.

Outperform rating retained. Target price edges up to $3.25 from $3.14.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.39
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy's fuel sales in the third quarter of 3.65bn litres were a 1.4% beat to Macquarie's expectations, with retail sales a 4.0% beat.

The broker finds the result reflects a slow but steady retail recovery, and despite some headwinds in the coming quarter feels a longer-term recovery is intact.

Macquarie feels Viva Energy's earlier acquisition of Coles Express brings it closer to the customer, and leaves the company positioned to evolve retail offers post-pandemic. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.40 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.54
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett saw a rather "mixed" Q3 update from Viva Energy with the Geelong refining margin (GRM) a negative stand-out against a recovery in fuel volumes.

Buy rating retained with the broker explaining it likes the stock for its leverage to the recovery in fuel volumes as well as near-term refining margins.

Post market update, 2022 earnings estimate has reduced by -12%. Target price loses -5c to $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.44
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

UBS' Buy thesis for Viva Energy remains intact following a trading update that showed fuel sales and refining margins in line with the broker's expectations. It's also a positive read-through for Ampol ((ALD)), and UBS sees upside for both.

The broker nevertheless expects the impact of increasing Chinese export quotas will continue to weigh on refining margins, although this is partially offset by the higher retail fuel volume growth.

There is potential upside to retail fuel volume growth if Viva accelerates the rollout of the Liberty network. Buy and $3.40 target retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.54
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -

Westpac will include notable items of -$1.286bn post tax in its September-half result on November 7, in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations.

Overweight weighting and $24.40 target price retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $23.87 Difference: $0.53
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.00, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Ahead of FY22 results, Westpac has pre-announced a number of one-offs, for a total of -$1.5bn pre-tax. Morgans had anticipated the bulk of these, but is surprised by the timing.

Earnings estimates have been reduced by -3% but the Cash EPS estimate for FY24 has lifted by 2%. Target reduces by -3c to $26.68. Add.

Target price is $26.68 Current Price is $23.87 Difference: $2.81
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.00, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as No Rating (-1) -

Westpac has announced its H2 financial result will include several one-off charges and Ord Minnett has updated its modeling.

Net impact is for -1% decline in the forecast FY22 cash net profit.

Ord Minnett is currently under research restriction, so no target and no rating are provided.

Current Price is $23.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.00, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is of the view that the threat of electric vehicles for service station REITs has resulted in many investors significantly undervaluing the respective underlying land banks.

The market is currently significantly undervaluing the combined 2.6m sqm of land owned by Waypoint REIT and Dexus Convenience says the broker.

Ord Minnett remains convinced underlying land values and rental growth should mitigate some, though not all, of the pressures from rising interest rates.

Accumulate. Target $2.81.

Target price is $2.81 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.24
If WPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Bad debts are trending in the right direction, points out Ord Minnett, but then again, the broker had hoped management at Zip Co would have found a solution for the international operations by now.

That's analyst code for find a buyer and get rid of those ASAP.

On current forecasts, Zip Co is forecast to reach cash EBTDA profitability in H2 of FY24. Ord Minnett has downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Price target declines to 70c from $1.10.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.07
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources