Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

FY24 earnings (EBITDA) for Life360 were well ahead of both the market and guidance, highlights Bell Potter, noting core services are experiencing steady demand, with positive contributions from new product offerings.

The company continues to expand its subscriber base, growing its customer revenue and engaging with strategic partnerships, explain the analysts.

Although there have been some pressures on margin growth, notes the broker, management is focused on operational efficiency and customer retention.

Management provided 2025 revenue guidance of US$450-480m (equating to growth of 21-29%, highlight the analysts) and adjusted EBITDA between US$65-75m. Bell Potter raises its revenue forecasts in 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 4%, respectively.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $28 from $27.75.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: $4.7
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.16, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Following Life360's 2024 results where earnings (EBITDA) came in 9% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast, the broker raises its target to $28.60 from $25.00 and maintains an Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

The fourth quarter beat on average monthly revenue (AMR), revenue, and earnings, feeding into strong 2025 guidance, highlight the analysts. Implied 2025 advertising revenue of around US$27m was ahead of expectations.

Morgan Stanley notes 2025 group revenue guidance for US$450-480m compares to the consensus forecast for US$464.7m, while guidance for adjusted earnings of US$65-75m compares to US$71.5m.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: $5.3
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.16, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views the Life360 4Q 2024 result was strong, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) 24% ahead of the analyst's expectations.

Management's 2025 guidance of US$465m revenue was slightly below forecasts but reflects a higher-quality revenue mix, supporting a an expected 300bp gross margin improvement. Adjusted earnings of US$70m appears achievable despite increased growth investment.

The company continues to expand in the US and internationally, with European penetration still low. Advertising is in early stages, US pricing has remained unchanged for over two years, and conversion remains underutilised.

Ord Minnett lifts the target price by 8% to $24.88 and retains a buy rating, citing strong long-term growth potential and structural earnings upside.

Target price is $24.88 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: $1.58
If 360 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.16, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, Citi envisages a recovery in earnings growth for Australian Finance Group from FY25-FY27.

The broker lifts EPS forecast by 4.3% for FY25 and lowers FY25 by -1.4%.

Buy rating retained. No change to target price at $1.85.

****

At first glance, Citi says Australian Finance Group reported 1H25 NPAT which was 4% ahead of Citi’s estimate but -6% below consensus, with a slight miss on other income, higher costs, and lower associate income, the broker explains.

The company generated distribution gross profit growth of 5%, supported by diversification efforts, while trail commissions fell -4% due to continued payout pressure. Subscription income and diversified products drove growth.

Manufacturing gross profit rebounded 9% year-on-year, with the company's book grew 13%, indicating further 2H25 profit contribution. NIM of 1.13% remained stable, with funding cost improvements expected over 18 months.

Management outlined FY29 aspirations, targeting an AFGS book of $9bn with a 120bps NIM and 35 equity broker investments, up from two currently. Broker service income is expected to grow from 20% to 30% of distribution gross profit.

Citi sees solid momentum into 2H25, particularly in manufacturing, as funding costs decline. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.24
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources reported 1H25 results ahead of Bell Potter’s expectations, benefiting from ore delivery pre-payments and lower depreciation/amortisationcharges.

Cash at December-end was $26m, with net debt of $14m. No dividend was declared, and FY25 guidance remains unchanged.

The analyst highlights stronger performance at Cracow offset weakness at Tritton, with Cracow contributing  around $45m earnings (EBITDA) versus Tritton at circa $31m. Earnings margins reached 28% up from 23% on the previous half.

Bell Potter stresses Aeris remains leveraged to copper prices and improving grades at Tritton. Cracow provides unhedged gold price exposure, balancing copper risks.

No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target price raised to $0.30 from $0.29.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.14
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 66.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Austin Engineering reported strong 1H25 results, with revenue up 18.5%, exceeding Bell Potter’s forecast by $10m. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) rose 22%, in line with expectations. The order book grew 22% and the dividend was raised 50% to 6cps.

The analyst notes higher activity led to increased investment and working capital, with -$6.8m in one-off costs and a $20m rise in raw materials.

Inventory increased from $43m to $63m, reducing cash by -$20m and shifting from a $9.6m cash position to $10.5m in net debt.

Bell Potter sees continued growth, supported by improved APAC margins, North American expansion, and South American restructuring.

Management's FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Buy. Target price slips to 85c from 86c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.41
If ANG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

Airtasker delivered a first half result that was largely pre-released and Morgans notes the operating performance was in line with expectations.

Slight changes are made to marketing expense assumptions and the broker highlights the robust growth across new regions such as the UK and US.

Current market conditions are volatile yet Morgans remains attracted to the strong growth opportunity, predicated on the company successfully implementing its strategy. Add maintained. Target is $0.56.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.2
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

BlueBet Holdings posted first half results that were largely in line with expectations. Morgans notes the benefit from a successful spring racing period and the migration of betr customers onto its platform.

The company has flagged a non-binding indicative offer to acquire PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)), delivering what the broker considers is a superior offer to the latter's scheme of arrangement with Japanese social gaming provider MIXI.

Beyond the $40m in identified synergies, customer crossover between the companies is less than 50%, which the broker assesses creates potential for further revenue and margin uplift. Add maintained. Target is $0.47.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.14
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Burgundy Diamond Mines reported 2024 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$94m, in line with prior disclosures, but also recorded a -US$127m impairment on Ekati, leading to a net loss of -US$95m.

Reported underlying net loss was -US$11m came in well below the broker's forecast of US$16m in net profit after tax. 

The analyst explains a fuel offtake agreement with Macquarie Bank ((MQG)) provided $39m cash, shifting fuel costs to monthly payments instead of a lump sum in December. The agreement could extend beyond 2025.

Bell Potter lowers forecast EPS to 3.7cps for 2026 from 4.0cps. Despite weak diamond markets, management is focused on extending mine life and improving operations the broker says.

Buy rating retained, target price $0.10.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.049
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGL as Buy (1) -

Bellevue Gold's 1H25 revenue met Bell Potter’s estimate, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) exceeding the broker's forecasts.

Net profit after tax came in below expectations due to higher-than-forecast depreciation and amortisation. Closing cash was $79.5m, with net debt at $19m.

Management's FY25 guidance remains at 150koz-165koz at an all-in-sustaining-costs of $1,900-$2,100/oz, with 2H25 production weighted towards 4Q.

The company expects to reach a 200kozpa run rate by FY26 and grow to 250kozpa by FY28. Hedged sales are expected to decline into FY26 as production increases.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -21% for FY25 and FY27. Buy rating maintained, target price $2.00.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.825
If BGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's 1H25 earnings (EBITDA) of $91m exceeded Macquarie’s forecast by $4m, while net profit after tax of $12m was in line but below consensus. Net debt rose to $166m due to additional lease liabilities.

Management retained FY25 production guidance at 150-165koz at all-in-sustaining-costs of $1,900-2,100/oz. The company expects 2H25 production of 90koz, with over a 200kozpa run rate in 4QFY25.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts for FY25-29 by -7 to -8% due to higher depreciation/amortisation assumptions.

Target price unchanged at $1.70.

Macquarie maintains an outperform rating, citing long-term growth potential but highlighting the importance of achieving the five-year production plan.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.525
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Bellevue Gold's operational challenges in 2024 appear resolved, prompting Ord Minnett to upgrade its rating to hold from lighten and raise the target price to $1.20 from $1.15.

The broker notes improved underground development since September, following new ventilation installations, suggesting stronger production from the March quarter onwards.

Ore grades in January indicated an exceptional 5.0g/t, though confirmation is needed over the next two quarters before revising model assumptions.

Bellevue has the ability to produce over 200,000oz annually at an all-in-sustaining-cost of $2,000/oz, generating $350m in cash flow at a $4,500/oz gold price.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 0.7% for FY25 and 0.2% for FY26-27. 

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.025
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

First half result from Bellevue Gold revealed net profit of $12m. With no debt due until 2027, UBS notes the focus is on the ramp up of the mine.

If the company can reach second half guidance of 90,000 ounces at AISC of $1850/oz the broker asserts this will be one of the few Australian gold miners producing below the $2000/oz mark.

Bellevue Gold will then exit FY25 with more than a 200,000 ozpa run rate. Target is $1.90. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.725
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Bubs Australia delivered a "strong" 1H25 result, in line with Ord Minnett’s expectations.

Revenue rose 23%, slightly ahead of forecasts, with net profit after tax of $3.6m, reversing a -$7.7m loss, the analyst explains. Gross margin remains above 40%, supporting a multi-year double-digit growth profile.

Management reaffirmed FY25 revenue guidance of $102m and positive earnings. The company expects another positive cash flow quarter in 4Q.

Ord Minnett believes the company's turnaround as well-positioned, driven by strong management, quality products, and growth in key markets, including its early lead in US Goat infant milk formula. 

Buy rating retained, target price $0.20.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.065
If BUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.16, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CUV as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals posted a first half result that was largely in line with forecasts. Material costs were wound down to almost zero, Morgans notes, delivering net profit that was ahead.

The broker fails to find much in the results to fire up investors and the stock falls short of "set-and-forget", given the risk around alternative therapies as a potential generic competition.

While there is no immediate threat to cash flow in the next few years, Morgans believes investors should expect competition to rear up in the next decade. Target is reduced to $15 from $17 and the rating is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Add.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: $3.51
If CUV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CVB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter details Curvebeam AI's 1H25 revenue rose 39%, with gross profit of $2.2m.

Seven devices were delivered, fulfilling most of the ten outstanding purchase orders as of June 2024, the broker explains.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) loss was -$7.0m, lower than the prior year but in line with 2H24, the analyst highlights, and cash burn was -$7.5m, leaving closing cash at $8.8m.

The company has 14 outstanding purchase orders, with at least ten expected to be fulfilled in 2H25. Bell Potter expects Curvebeam to have sufficient cash for the short term.

Target price lowered to 18c from 26c. Buy (Speculative) rating retained, with Bell Potter citing HiRise validation as a potential long-term value driver.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.06
If CVB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGL as Hold (3) -

DGL Group's 1H25 earniings fell -14% year-on-year and below Bell Potter’s estimate.

Organic revenue growth (excl. E-Solutions) was around 8%, but higher operating costs from wage inflation, headcount increases, and shared services investments weighed on earnings, the analyst explains.

Environmental Solutions remained under pressure, with raw material competition reducing profitability to break-even, while Manufacturing underperformed sector peers despite industry-wide margin tailwinds.

Management anticipates cost reductions and process integration to drive improvement in 2H25 and FY26. Ag-chem volumes remain strong, while AdBlue prices normalise. The new Unanderra liquid waste facility is set to start production in 1H26.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -25% for FY25, -20% for FY26. 

Hold rating maintained due to execution risks despite potential upside from operational improvements. Target price slips to 48c from 53c.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Dug Technology reported order-book momentum stronger-than-expected by Shaw and Partners in its first half result, which included $13.4m in service awards, including significant contributions from Elastic Multi-Phase Flow Imaging (MP-FWI).

Earnings (EBITDA) of $6.6m aligned with the broker's forecast for the first half, though revenue of $28.7m missed the forecast for $31.8m.

The broker highlights multiple near-term catalysts, such as the launch of DUG Cool and DUG Nomad, alongside strategic regional hubs driving growth. Despite these developments, costs were well maintained even with international expansion, highlight the analysts.

Shaw now believes the bottom is in for the company, with positive revenue growth expected.

Buy, High risk. Target price is lowered to $3.00 from $3.60 after the broker reduces FY25-27 earnings forecasts by -21%, -23%, and -20%, respectively. It's felt the weak share price leading up to the interim results factors in these downgrades.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $1.82
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Endeavour Group's valuation is likely to remain low until the market gains confidence in the company's ability to sustain margins amid industry challenges, the possibility of a long-term rent adjustment, regulatory risks in gaming, and delays in appointing a permanent CEO.

Cost savings under endeavourGo are progressing, with -$230m achieved toward the -$290m-plus target set for FY26.

The broker highlights analysts on the earnings call were disappointed Chairman Ari Mervis was unavailable for questions following the announcement that he will step in as interim CEO.

Citi emphasises there were broker concerns about ensuring balanced representation of all shareholders, given the company's ownership structure. Mervis also resigned as Chairman of McPherson’s ((MCP)), citing increased responsibilities elsewhere over the next year.

Target price lowered to $4.50 from $4.87. Neutral rated.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.33
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group's 1H25 results revealed a focus on hotel renewals, targeting over 15% return on capital invested, funded partly through asset sales of $100m-$150m, Macquarie details.

Hotel sales grew 3.2% in 1H25 and 4.7% early in 2H25. Retail sales declined -0.8% in early 2H25, impacted by Victorian supply chain disruptions.

The broker raises EPS forecasts for FY25 by 7% but lowers FY26 by -4% for FY26, driven by cost shifts.

Target price slips by -2% to $4.10 due to earnings revisions and lower capex expectations.

Macquarie maintains a neutral rating, citing near-term trading uncertainty and strategic concerns amid the CEO transition. 

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Overweight (1) -

In a takeaway from the management call post Endeavour Group's interim results, Morgan Stanley highlights inventory challenges limited promotional activity in Q2, which has persisted in the first seven weeks of H2.

Management also explained the reduction in FY25 capex guidance was driven by a shift in One Endeavour capex into FY26, highlights Shaw, as well as lower stay-in business capex, and lower than previously expected network expansion.

Overweight. Target $5.90. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.73
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

First half results from Endeavour Group were weaker than Morgans expected, yet growth in the business appears assured amid ongoing investment in data, digital and productivity.

Limited upside is anticipated in the share price as cost inflation is still elevated and a permanent CEO is yet to be appointed. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.35 from $4.54.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.18
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Endeavour Group delivered first half earnings and net profit that were ahead of UBS estimates. Forecasts for FY25-26 EPS are revised up by 2.5% amid higher hotel earnings and lower net interest.

The broker notes hotel sales growth strengthened during the first half and gaming is resilient, with the company gaining market share in Victoria.

A Buy rating is maintained given a strong liquor industry position, cost management and options on hotels growth. Target is unchanged at $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.83
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EXP as Add (1) -

Experience Co delivered a first half result that materially beat expectations. The top line for Skydive was subdued, given a slow recovery in inbound tourists and cost of living pressures. This was countered by strong earnings in Adventure Experiences amid increased volumes.

The large fall in the share price, Morgans asserts, reflects a market resetting expectations around the recovery profile. The business is back to generating free cash flow and the broker assesses dividends are not far away either.

Add rating. Target is raised to $0.20 from $0.18.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.07
If EXP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Frontier Digital Ventures announced a decline in earnings (EBITDA) of -51% to $1.8m in 2024 due to macro pressures and re-platforming challenges in 360LATAM.

Bell Potter explains the decline was partially offset by improving conditions in Pakistan-exposed associates Zameen and Pakwheels.

The company is rolling out its Iris platform through InfoCasas, aiming to reduce working capital intensity and improve scalability.

The analyst lowers forecast EPS by -0.6cps for 2025 and -1.0cps for 2026.

No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target price remains at 52c.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.295
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Generation Development reported a solid first half performance, according to Morgan Stanley, with earnings surpassing consensus expectations by around 10%. The beat is attributed to stronger revenue margins and an improved contribution from Lonsec.

Management has completed the -$320m acquisition of Evidentia, which is expected to significantly boost growth in the Managed Accounts category.

The broker is optimistic about the deal, highlighting five reasons: structural growth in the Managed Accounts category, rapid growth projections for Evidentia, high-quality funds under management (FUM), complementary brand alignment, and scale advantages.

The analysts raise its price target to $6.30 from $4.90, reflecting the positive outlook from the Evidentia deal and the overall growth trajectory.

Morgan Stanley keeps an Overweight rating, citing the company's dominant position in key markets and strong cash flow generation.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $1.12
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Generation Development's 1H25 result was strong, exceeding expectations across revenue, margins, and profit.

Underlying net profit after tax was $12.4m, 12% ahead of forecasts, with Lonsec driving the upside through 10% revenue growth and gross margin expansion to 59.0%. The interim dividend of 1.0cps (100% franked) was in line with expectations.

Ord Minnett raises EPS forecasts by 0-7%, for FY25-FY27, partially offset by a higher tax rate. The target price rises to $5.80 from $4.94.

The broker believes earnings momentum will continue, with the Evidentia acquisition providing further growth opportunities.

EPS is anticipated to grow at a compound average of 44% over the next two years. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $5.80 from $4.94.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.62
If GDG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Harvey Norman's 1H25 earnings (EBITDA) of $507m was below Citi's estimate by -2% but above consensus by around 1%, driven by a strong Australian Franchise performance.

The broker comments sales momentum in Australia remains solid, while New Zealand appears to be stabilising. FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast is lowered by -2% but FY26 remains largely unchanged.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price rises to $5.80 from $5.20, reflecting higher market and peer multiples with slightly lower discounts.

The analyst explains its 90-day upside catalyst watch is closed after a 10% stock gain since January 2025.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $0.58
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Harvey Norman reported 1H25 results supported by strong Australian franchisee earnings, with profit before tax up 26%, driven by higher franchising revenue and lease adjustments. Comparable sales grew 5.3% in 1H25 and 7.0% in early 2H25.

The New Zealand business showed signs of recovery, with sales improving to a -1% decline in January from a decline of -2.5% in 1H25. Offshore retail remained weak, with pre-tax profit down 11%.

Macquarie lifts earnings forecasts by 2-4% for FY25-FY27, driven by stronger Australian earnings, while offshore segments remain a drag. The target price was raised 6% to $5.50. Outperform.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $0.28
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

Following interim results for Harvey Norman, Morgan Stanley's key takeaways from the management call are satisfaction with market share and the direction of sales trends in the second half.

Regarding PC's with AI functionality, the broker highlights the buying trend has only just begun and still has a long way to run, according to management

Underweight rating. Target $4.00. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Harvey Norman reported 1H25 earnings slightly above market expectations, with an interim dividend exceeding consensus, Ord Minnett observes. Australian franchise margins benefited from lower lease depreciation, while property earnings were strong due to portfolio revaluations.

Trading conditions improved in early 2H25, with like-for-like sales growth accelerating from 2.1% in January to 7% in February. Among international stores, Ireland and Asia saw strong profit growth, while Croatia, Slovenia, and the UK underperformed.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25, -1% for FY26, due to franchise gains, higher depreciation, UK losses, and further property revaluations.

Target price increases to $4.50 from $4.40, but the broker's rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold, citing better opportunities elsewhere and continued market share losses to JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Wesfarmers' ((WES)) Officeworks.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Further to the initial analysis of the first half result from Harvey Norman, UBS notes franchising operations were the main positive surprise, largely UK and Ireland. The negative was non-franchise retail.

The international outlook is considered mixed, with New Zealand not as bad as previously expected while UK losses are significant.

Malaysia remains a significant source of new store growth while fewer stores will be opened in FY25 and the planned for 80 stores are now forecast for FY30 not FY28.

Neutral retained. Target is $5.25.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $0.03
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Add (1) -

IDP Education delivered first half results that missed expectations with underlying EBITDA down -41.6%. IELTS volumes were flat with a significant decline in India, partially offset by growth elsewhere.

Morgans continues to believe FY25 will be the "trough" year for student volumes, although acknowledges the trough has "deepened" and the timing of a recovery relies on clearer policy.

More clarity is unlikely until the election cycle concludes. Longer term value is envisaged in the business and an Add rating is retained. Target is reduced to $13.00 from $18.20.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $2.95
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 54.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IME as Speculative Buy (1) -

2024 results from ImExHS were largely in line with expectations although, despite the significant revenue improvement, underlying EBITDA was below forecasts primarily because of slower software growth.

Morgans considers the outlook positive while noting the company outlined qualitative guidance rather than the range of numbers it has previously provided.

This adds risk but the broker is happy to wait and see the impact to near-term cash flow as the launch of new software unfolds. Target is reduced to $0.75 from $1.15 and a Speculative Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.35
If IME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IRE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Iress's 2024 earnings (EBITDA) were slightly above market expectations, driven by strong UK wealth performance, which offset weakness in trading and market data (TMD) and APAC wealth. The company reinstated its final dividend.

UK wealth revenue grew 12%, with operating earnings and margins nearly doubling. TMD revenue was flat as price increases were offset by lower volumes, with some institutional clients cutting licences or switching providers.

APAC wealth revenue declined -2% due to similar client cost-cutting on Xplan licences.

Management's 2025 guidance was unclear, with earnings (EBITDA) growth of 6-12% below consensus expectations, though net profit guidance aligned with the higher end of market forecasts. 

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts by -9% for 2025 and -7% for 2026. Target price falls to $10.70 from $12.00.

No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $7.97 Difference: $2.73
If IRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Jupiter Mines declared a 1H25 dividend of 0.75c, 43% above Macquarie's forecast, equating to a 5% yield or 10% annualised, the analyst explains. Net profit after tax of $14.0m was a decline of -5%, in line with forecast.

Tshipi’s net profit after tax of ZAR366.2m met expectations, with a ZAR300m dividend declared for the period, of which the company's share is ZAR142m. 

The broker's EPS forecasts rise by 1-2% from FY26-30 due to minor adjustments to interest expenditure.

No change to target price at 22c. Macquarie maintains an outperform rating, citing profitability despite manganese market challenges and a strong dividend commitment. 

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.06
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

Kina Securities delivered profitable growth in 2024 with underlying results at the top end of guidance. Morgans notes key positives include "reasonable" net interest margin expansion and strong digital revenue growth.

Estimates for 2025 are lowered slightly because of higher bad debt charges but are lifted for 2026 on higher interest estimates. Target edges down to $1.44 from $1.45 and an Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.245
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Add (1) -

Morgans was impressed with the 2024 results from Light & Wonder which came despite litigation. The land-based division showed strength in international sales and a net addition of 853 units in North American gambling operations.

The broker raises estimates for EPS by 7-8% across FY25-26 largely because of the inclusion of the Grover Gaming acquisition.

As US slot demand is resilient and there is disciplined cost management, the broker believes the business is well-positioned to continue to outperform. Add maintained. Target rises to $220 from $175.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $176.27 Difference: $43.73
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $201.33, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Neutral (3) -

Arcadium Lithium  reported a 4Q net loss of -$14.2m or an underlying profit of $12.5m, excluding transaction charges regarding the Rio Tinto ((RIO)) takeover and Argentina currency fluctuations.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $73.7m proved in line with Citi and consensus.

The broker observes at 31 December, excluding Nemaska, the company had US$105m in cash and US$809m in debt. In January, Rio Tinto provided Arcadium a US$200m loan, fully drawn by 30 January, with another US$300m available for capex.

Citi expects Arcadium to require more external liquidity on a standalone basis.

The transaction with Rio Tinto is set to close on 6 March, around 300 days after the initial US$5.25/sh bid, later raised to US$5.85/sh.

Trget price is $9.40/sh is based on the all-cash bid price converted at a spot FX rate of US$0.62.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.38 Difference: $0.02
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metro Mining reported a strong 2024, according to Shaw and Partners, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) up by 108% year-on-year to $39m, with earnings set to increase again in 2025.

While the headline result showed a worse-than-expected -$22m net loss, the broker notes it was impacted by -$23m in one-off items, including unrealised currency losses.

The analysts highlight operational improvements where the benefits will significantly impact 2025.

Management maintains 2025 guidance.

Shaw reiterates its 17c target and Buy, High Risk rating for Metro Mining, one of the broker's top picks for 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.118
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 227% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MMS as Hold (3) -

McMillan Shakespeare reported an interim result broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations.

Normalised profit (NPATA) fell by -7% year-on-year to $49.6m primarily due to weaker cost performance in the Group Remuneration Services division, offset by a slight benefit from Private Salary Solutions, explains the broker.

The analysts highlight strong operating cash conversion of 88%, despite the impact of accelerated capex and non-cash items.

A fully franked interim dividend of 71c per share was declared.

Management expects 2H normalised profit to be greater than H1.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $16.30 from $15.80.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $16.04 Difference: $0.26
If MMS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.39, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

First half net profit from Medibank Private beat estimates, largely on stronger health insurance. Morgans upgrades estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 3-4%.

While the performance appears "pretty solid" and guidance on claims is more favourable, the broker notes the stock is trading on around 19x FY25 earnings and is therefore considered as fair value at this point of the cycle.

Hold maintained. Target rises to $4.52 from $4.11.

Target price is $4.52 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.17
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NOL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

NobleOak Life delivered a "solid" interim result, according to Shaw and Partners, with total in-force premiums increasing by 20.3% year-on-year to $422.9m, slightly surpassing the broker's forecast.

Underlying net profit rose by 10.5% year-on-year to $8.7m, in line with the analyst's expectations.

Management continues to expect above-market growth throughout FY25 and has flagged the potential for future dividends, a positive shift for the company, the broker notes.

Shaw maintains its Buy, High Risk rating and $2.85 target, citing strong growth in in-force premiums and a favorable total shareholder return outlook of 90%.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.35
If NOL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings reported 1H25 earnings (EBITA) of $97m, below Citi’s forecast by -7%, due to higher depreciation and weaker mining margins.

Revenue proved better than expectations by 7%,  driven by strength in Civil and METS. Cash conversion remained strong at 83.7%, despite $86.7m in overdue receivables from OneSteel.

The company's order book increased to $6.8bn, with management lifting revenue guidance to $3.2-$3.3bn, with unchanged earnings guidance. 

Citi notes uncertainty around Whyalla receivables as a risk to sentiment. Buy rating maintained, target price $4.05.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $0.765
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OCL as Hold (3) -

First half results from Objective Corp were largely in line with forecasts although annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 10% was softer. EBITDA forecasts are reduced by -2% across FY25-27.

Morgans considers the business a "best-in-class" enterprise software outfit with a defensive government customer base and a long history of growth.

Yet, in the near term, having fallen short of meeting historical ARR targets, further evidence is required of the trajectory.

Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $16.75 from $17.80.

Target price is $16.75 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $1.4
If OCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.08, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PXA as Overweight (1) -

Pexa Group reported a "solid" performance in the first half, assesses Morgan Stanley, with revenue up 25% year-on-year to $203m, slightly ahead of consensus expectations.

Earnings (EBITDA) also increased by 25%, reaching $73m, benefiting from a strong product mix and CPI-linked price increases, explain the analysts.

The broker notes the core Australian digital property exchange is performing well, with the company increasing its market share by two percentage points to 90%.

Less positively, international progress, particularly in the UK, continues to lag behind expectations, and significant earnings and free cash flow losses persist, observe the analysts.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, with group revenue growth expected between 13% and 19%, and an earnings margin of over 34%. The company also announced a $50m on-market share buyback.

Overweight. Target $15. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $2.69
If PXA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PXA as Buy (1) -

Pexa Group's 1H earnings beat Ord Minnett's forecast, with the broker noting further details on the company's UK operations were positive.

The broker sees strong potential in the UK business in the medium term as negotiations with top banks and the Bank of England continue. The broker also sees potential in other markets, such as Canada.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecasts by -17% and FY26 by -18% on higher expected tax rates stemming from a change in tax recognition policy.

Buy rating and target price is $17.40.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $5.09
If PXA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

First half results on further review from PEXA Group revealed operating trends are broadly in line with UBS although improved free cash flow provided surprise capital management.

Slower UK progress has been reported, while in Australia navigating regulatory price reviews will be key although risks are considered manageable.

The broker envisages compelling upside if key milestones can be achieved over the next year. UBS re-iterates a Buy rating and raises its target to $15.75 from $15.50.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $3.44
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Add (1) -

The 2024 results from Regal Partners were largely in line with expectations and there was no quantitative 2025 guidance.

Morgans is confident the diversified investment manager can continue to grow funds under management, noting the scale to which Regal has grown over the past 12 months.

Around 30% of flows from offshore investors extends the reach of distribution and FUM aspirations. Add rating. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $1.28
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the latest contract award for Service Stream has shifted the growth narrative, positioning the Australian market as a two-player industry.

The expected contribution from the contract in FY26 and FY27 represents approximately 22.5% and 29% of telco revenue forecasts and 11% and 15% of total revenue forecasts.

Citi reiterates its buy rating with a $2 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.23
If SSM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its target for Strike Energy to 26c from 27c following interim results and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold after recent share price weakness.

The company reported a first half result weaker-than-expected by the broker, with underlying earnings (EBITDAX) of $15.6m, missing the broker's estimate of $23.5m, and a net loss of -$15.5m, compared to a forecast profit of $10.2m.

This discrepancy was largely driven by a non-cash -$20.1m depletion and depreciation charge related to the acquired Talon Energy interest in Walyering, explain the analysts.

The company ended the half with cash of $33m and net debt of $16m.

Bell Potter notes Strike is leveraged to the Western Australia energy market where prices are expected to remain supportive.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.07
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes Strike Energy’s strategic review is ongoing, with updates expected in March and outcomes by mid-year.

The company's 1H25 result missed expectations due to higher-than-expected Walyering depreciation, leading to a -$15.5m net loss., the analyst explains.

Macquarie lowers FY25/26 NPAT forecasts to a loss, with FY27 down -72%.

The target price is reduced by -2cps to 22c, reflecting lower reserve conversion at Walyering and cash burn. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.03
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

TPG Telecom reported a small miss in 2024 results, notes Morgan Stanley, with revenue of $5.52bn, slightly below consensus expectations.

Operating earnings (EBITDA) of $1.98bn were in line with consensus, while adjusted profit came in at $464m, also close to market expectations.

Mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) grew by 5%, driven by strong post-paid mobile performance, though post-paid mobile subscriber growth fell by -3%, missing the broker's expectations.

Management's 2025 guidance is in line with market consensus, observe the analysts, with expected earnings between $1.95-2.25bn.

Morgan Stanley notes management is focused on gaining market share in mobile services through the Mobile Only deal with Vodafone, which is expected to present new opportunities, particularly in regional A&NZ markets. 

Target $4.40. Underweight rating. Industry view of "In-Line." Telstra Group ((TLS)) remains the broker's preferred exposure in the space.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

2024 earnings from TPG Telecom were in line with UBS. 2025 EBITDA guidance appears conservative and the broker observes the next catalyst will be sale of the fibre network to Vocus, expected to close in the second half of the year.

The ACCC will review this at the end of the month and, if approved, the company will host an investor briefing to update the market on capital management.

EBITDA guidance for 2025 is for a range of $1.95-2.025bn, which the broker points out assumes flat growth at the mid point. Forecasts are lowered for 2025-27 EBITDA by -5-6%. Neutral. Target is reduced to $4.80 from $4.95.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.17
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TTT as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Titomic reported a 61% year-on-year growth in customer revenue for the first half of FY25, and Shaw and Partners believes the company's innovative technology and robust sales pipeline support a positive outlook.

The broker is referring to the Titomic Kinetic Fusion cold spray technology used by Titomic in manufacturing and providing technology solutions for metal additive manufacturing, metal coatings, and repairs.

Despite the broker revising its FY25 EBITDA forecast to -$15m from -$8m due to setup costs at the Alabama facility, the outlook for FY26 remains stable, in the analyst's view.

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and 30c target.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.06
If TTT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

Vista International reported 2H 2024 earnings (EBITDA) up 56% year-on-year and ahead of Macquarie’s forecast. 

Management's FY25 revenue guidance remains at NZ$167-NZ$173m, with a 16-18% earnings (EBITDA) margin. The company missed its Dec-24 digital/cloud transition target, reaching 683/358 sites instead of 800/400, but aims for 1,600/700 by FY25.

The broker's EPS forecasts for FY25-27 are increased by 5-8% due to the higher long-term margin target.

Target price rises to NZ$3.40 from NZ$2.20. Macquarie maintains a neutral rating, noting execution risks in cloud migration despite long-term growth potential.

Current Price is $3.40. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates VGL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes it is time to snap up shares in Vista International after FY24 results saw a material lift in long-term margins, particularly in cloud migration. A FY30 cash earnings (EBITDA) margin of 32% is now forecast, versus 23% prior.

Recurring revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, largely driven by the cloud migration, notes the broker, while earnings were a 6% beat against the analysts' forecast.

Management expects strong future growth, with substantial upside from its embedded payments strategy.

Shaw retains a Buy rating, raising the target to $4.10 from $3.00, driven by stronger long-term margin forecasts.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.7
If VGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VYS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Vysarn posted a "robust" first half result, Morgans assesses, as both technologies and advisory performed strongly. Headwinds in industrial are abating as demand for rigs continues to improve.

The broker observes the business will no longer be susceptible to swings in the hydro business as a result of recent acquisitions.

The company has guided to around $15m in pre-tax profit for FY25 and "talked up" prospects of the Kariyarra resource as significant. The broker increases the target to $0.58 from $0.55. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.14
If VYS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources