Australian Broker Call

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April 12, 2023

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
EVN - Evolution Mining Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
NCM - Newcrest Mining Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
SUL - Super Retail Downgrade to Sell from Lighten Ord Minnett
4DX  4DMEDICAL LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.80

Bell Potter rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

4DMedical has signed its inaugural contract in the US for the delivery of XV LVAS scans to university of Miami Health System, which incorporates three hospitals and attached medical school. Bell Potter considers this an ideal reference site for the product.

The broker expects the average fee per scan earned by the company will be around US$175 with upwards of a thousand scans per year probable from the first full year. Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises the target to $1.05 from $0.96.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.25
If 4DX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.84.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE  ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $11.12

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is cautious about the demand for lithium as well as the battery inventory de-stocking over the short term, which in turn is putting downward pressure on lithium prices.

The broker favours fully-integrated producers with a focus on volume growth and valuation.

Allkem's lithium price is trading closest to the broker's long-term price forecasts and also the lowest in its coverage. The stock tops the order of preference and an Overweight rating is maintained. Target is raised to $13.75 from $13.30. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.12 Difference: $2.63
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.33, suggesting upside of 46.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 117.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of 40.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 98.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.0, implying annual growth of 26.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARU  ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $0.49

Bell Potter rates ARU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Arafura Rare Earths will supply Siemens up to 400tpa of separated neodymium and praseodymium oxide over five years. The signing of the offtake agreement comes after the in-principal debt support for up to US$600m from the German export credit agency, Eueler Hermes.

Bell Potter believes this is providing momentum for the company as it moves towards a final investment decision. Several key milestones will occur over the next 6-12 months. Projects such as Nolans are expected to be supported by the growing demand from the electric vehicle and wind turbine sectors.

The rating is Speculative Buy and the target price of $0.72 is retained.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.23
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.42.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHN  CHALICE MINING LIMITED

Industrial Metals

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Overnight Price: $7.80

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie incorporates into its forecasts a larger scale, staged open pit and underground development for Chalice Mining's Julimar project, after taking into account a 60% resource increase for the Gonneville deposit.

The broker's development scenario now includes a mixed hydroxide process, which delivers higher nickel payability rates.

Management has indicated it intends to commence a formal strategic partnering process, given the increasing scale of the project.

Macquarie raises its longer-term earnings forecasts and increases its price target by 19% to $9.50. Outperform.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1.7
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNU  CHORUS LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $7.91

Macquarie rates CNU as Neutral (3) -

Following a 3Q connections update by Chorus, Macquarie observes fibre connections broadly offset the reduction in copper connections, which continues the recent connections trend.

The analyst highlights fibre take-up continues to grow, now standing at around 72% of the total ultra-fast broadband (UFB) area.

The broker's Neutral rating and NZ$8.63 target are unchanged.

Current Price is $7.91. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.75 cents and EPS of 3.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 241.01.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.31 cents and EPS of 4.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 177.04.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $22.19

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects earnings will grow at a compound rate of 20% over the five years to FY27. Higher margin income is expected to drive near-term earnings growth.

Margin income is expected to account for more than 60% of group EBITDA in FY23-24 then compress to around 55% by FY27.

The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and retains an Accumulate rating while raising the target to $25 from $24.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.19 Difference: $2.81
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 104.40 cents and EPS of 160.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 120.70 cents and EPS of 185.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.7, implying annual growth of 19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.51

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining has flagged March quarter gold production that was lower than Citi expected while costs were better than forecast. FY23 production guidance is downgraded to 660,000 ounces for gold and to 48,000t for copper.

While Red Lake production metrics improved they were still softer than the broker expected. The company's balance sheet is highly leveraged to the gold priced and Citi retains a Sell rating, needing conviction on Red Lake and upcoming capital expenditure commitments. Target is raised to $3.10 from $2.90.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 75.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates EVN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Evolution Mining's preliminary 3Q gold production and copper output missed Macquarie's forecasts by -6% and -11%, respectively, due to a larger-than-expected impact from a weather event at Ernest Henry. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were a 2% beat.

Management advised the weather event will impact gold production by -17koz and copper output by -10kt in FY23.

After updating forecasts for costs and production, the broker's FY23 EPS forecast falls by -7% though the $3.00 target price is unchanged. The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral given the recent share price rally.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 75.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Evolution Mining has updated its production guidance for FY23 post the weather-affected March quarter at Ernest Henry. Production expectations are in line with the broker's estimates while cost guidance at $1390/oz is better than expected.

The broker considers the update a positive and remains comfortable with the debt and liquidity position. The Overweight rating and $3.60 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.09
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 75.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

March quarter production was affected by the weather at Ernest Henry and was down -10%. FY23 gold production guidance has been reduced by -5% to 660,000 ounces. UBS decreases production estimates by -5% in line with new guidance and eases back on expectations for the ramp up of Red Lake.

The broker suggests part of the bull case for Evolution Mining was how it looks cheap on FY24 metrics yet, while prices remain elevated, Red Lake continues to underperform and it appears that FY24 guidance of 800,000 ounces is out of reach. Sell maintained. Target is $2.65, edging down from $2.70.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 75.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG  GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $1.40

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners produced a strong March quarter, as net flows of US$5bn occurred. Ord Minnett considers this an "excellent" outcome given the volatile macro economic environment.

Despite being one of the few listed asset managers generating positive net flows, the stock remains inexpensive and the broker retains a Buy rating with a $2.10 target.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.7
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.01 cents and EPS of 12.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.47 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO  HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $2.36

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes international air travel is recovering strongly and Helloworld Travel is well able to benefit from the momentum. IATA data forecasts overall traveller numbers to reach 4bn in 2024, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

The broker remains attracted to the stock given the quality of its management and strong macro outlook. Significant progress is occurring on several fronts such as earnings momentum, utilisation of resources and enhanced scale and capabilities in new territory.

The stock also trades at a very significant discount to two listed peers and the broker retains a Buy rating. Target is $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.64
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -90.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 118.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1  HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $1.11

Macquarie rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

As research restrictions for HT&E have been lifted following the completed sale of its 24.9% stake in Soprano Design, Macquarie resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $1.14 target.

The analyst suggests earnings downgrades for the media industry will continue to accelerate in the short term as the economic/consumer outlook softens.

The broker considers the sale of Soprano Design is a positive given it allows management to focus on its core radio assets and provides more balance sheet flexibility. 

Macquarie highlights the appeal of HT&E's dividend yield.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.035
If HT1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 10.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $12.55

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley is cautious about the demand for lithium as well as the battery inventory de-stocking over the short term, which in turn is putting downward pressure on lithium prices.

The broker favours fully-integrated producers with a focus on volume growth and valuation. IGO and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) are implying the highest spodumene prices and trade around 2-2.5x above the broker's long-term price forecast.

Underweight maintained. Target is raised to $10.55 from $10.20. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $10.55 Current Price is $12.55 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.75, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 2.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 567.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.0, implying annual growth of 261.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 122.50 cents and EPS of 1.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 958.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.2, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $11.83

Macquarie rates IVC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts its target price for InvoCare by 23% to $12.65 to align with TPG Global’s offer, made on March 7. TPG currently holds an around 20% stake in InvoCare.

While the board has granted TPG global limited access for due diligence, the offer is not considered to provide compelling value for shareholders.

The broker believes a deal could materialise around the $12.65 price though there is potential for a higher bid from TPG. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $11.83 Difference: $0.82
If IVC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.40, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.40 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.20 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $78.87

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is cautious about the demand for lithium as well as the battery inventory de-stocking over the short term, which in turn is putting downward pressure on lithium prices.

The broker favours fully-integrated producers with a focus on volume growth and valuation. Mineral Resources is second in the order of preference after Allkem Ltd ((AKE)).

Equal-weight retained. Target is raised to $81.90 from $77.00. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $81.90 Current Price is $78.87 Difference: $3.03
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $100.70, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 325.20 cents and EPS of 650.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 737.4, implying annual growth of 298.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 395.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 217.40 cents and EPS of 435.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1445.7, implying annual growth of 96.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 723.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $29.74

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining has received a revised offer from Newmont with an improved exchange rate of 0.40 (from 0.38:1) Newmont shares for each Newcrest Mining share held. This results in an implied total value of $32.87/share.

Following the new offer, Macquarie lifts its target by 18% to $33.00. The Outperform rating is unchanged.

Under the revised proposal, Newcrest Mining is also allowed to pay a franked special dividend up to US$1.10/share on or around the transaction date.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.74 Difference: $3.26
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.01, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.36 cents and EPS of 126.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.97 cents and EPS of 158.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.8, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

Newmont has revised its offer for Newcrest Mining, with the new bid allowing a franked special dividend of up to US$$1.10 a share. The revised proposal conditions including board recommendation and an independent expert report.

Newcrest shareholders would be entitled to receive 0.4 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share which implies a price of $31.20/share, Morgan Stanley calculates.

Due diligence is agreed, enabling each party to proceed to a binding proposal. Equal-weight. Target is $26.90. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $29.74 Difference: minus $2.84 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.01, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.90 cents and EPS of 128.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.36 cents and EPS of 161.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.8, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NCM as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Newcrest Mining has received a higher indicative proposal from Newmont. Ord Minnett notes this is Newmont's best and final offer in the absence of a competing proposal.

Under the proposal shareholders would receive 0.4 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share they hold and Newcrest can pay a further fully franked dividend of up to US$1.10 if a scheme of arrangement is implemented.

The broker raises its target to $32 from $31 and assumes a 75% chance the proposal is successful.  Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $29.74 Difference: $2.26
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.01, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 93.72 cents and EPS of 235.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.36 cents and EPS of 225.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.8, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAC  PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.66

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the Cordillera investment provides options for growth albeit priced close to fair value. The outlook is positive for Pacific Current Group as it is certain to exceed the top end of its gross new commitment guidance for the two years to June 2023.

The broker expects solid earnings growth in the next 12 months as the recent fundraising drives revenue. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $11.20 from $11.40.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $4.54
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 62.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 70.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $3.69

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Initiation of coverage with Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Pilbara Minerals with an Underweight rating and $3.15 target. Pilgangoora is considered a world-class asset with a long life in a good jurisdiction.

With the lithium sector currently facing demand and overstocking concerns, the broker focuses on volume growth and valuation in its methodology. As a result, Morgan Stanley prefers Allkem ((AKE)) in this space. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 43.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.6, implying annual growth of 329.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of -14.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $1.76

UBS rates PTM as Sell (5) -

March funds under management at $18.6bn were supported by stronger markets. UBS notes the investment performance has improved and the flagship international strategy and Asia strategy are outperforming benchmarks, although this does not appear to be translating into improved flows.

Further outflows are expected in April, with the broker flagging an institutional redemption of US$141m from the Platinum World Portfolio - Asia Fund.

The Sell rating and $1.55 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.20 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of -9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH  PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $10.20

Citi rates PWH as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage of PWR Holdings with a Buy rating and $11.60 target. The broker is attracted to the company's dominant market position within Formula One, where it is estimated to provide up to 90% of cooling solutions for the sport.

The broker also believes the business can continue to grow outside of motorsports, particularly with vehicle OEMs in their transition to electrified drivetrains.

While acknowledging a lot of growth is priced into the stock, Citi envisages further upside as the business invests in automation.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $10.20 Difference: $1.4
If PWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.29, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 20.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.74

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett was encouraged by the update on operations. For the 13 weeks to April 2 attendance at Scentre Group malls was 16% higher than for the same period in 2022. Tenant sales were 17% higher.

The news reaffirms the broker's view that there is still some growth ahead for the company as the effects of the pandemic ease.

While the spectre of a possible recession still looms, the broker does not consider this will cause a structural "hit", just a cyclical slowdown, but the business is well prepared. Accumulate rating and $3.30 target maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.56
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 253.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNG  SIREN GOLD LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $0.10

Morgans rates SNG as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Siren Gold with a Speculative Buy rating and 26c target price. The company aims to grow its exploration targets organically from its key projects over the next 24 months.

Siren's current focus is on exploring the flagship Reefton and Sams Creek Projects on the South Island of New Zealand. Since listing in October 2020, the global resource [to JORC Code (2012) standards] has increased to 10.2Mt at 3.0g/t gold, containing 994k oz of gold.

The company primarily holds interests in the Alexander River, Big River, Reefton South and Lyell projects located within the Reefton goldfield. Siren also holds interests in the Golden Point, Bell Hill, Waitahu, and St George projects.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.16
If SNG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL  SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $13.20

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -

As the share price of Super Retail has moved through Ord Minnett's trigger level the rating is downgraded to Sell from Lighten. Target is $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: minus $3.7 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.14, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 108.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.4, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 83.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.7, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $13.70

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

China has agreed to undertake an expedited review over three months regarding the duties imposed in Australian barley. In return, Australia has agreed to temporarily suspend the WTO dispute for the agreed review.

Hence, wine tariffs may also be on the agenda, Morgan Stanley notes. While Treasury Wine Estates has been successful at redistributing Penfolds to Asia outside of China, volumes remain depressed.

In addition to earnings upside, a return to supplying China is also likely to have implications for the multiple on which the stock trades, the broker adds.

The Overweight rating is reiterated and $15.40 target is maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.70 Difference: $1.7
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of 38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.90 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
4DX 4DMedical $0.75 Bell Potter 1.05 0.96 9.38%
AKE Allkem $11.16 Morgan Stanley 13.75 13.30 3.38%
CHN Chalice Mining $7.85 Macquarie 9.50 8.00 18.75%
CPU Computershare $22.31 Ord Minnett 25.00 24.00 4.17%
EVN Evolution Mining $3.52 Citi 3.10 2.80 10.71%
UBS 2.65 2.70 -1.85%
HT1 HT&E $1.08 Macquarie 1.14 N/A -
IGO IGO $12.61 Morgan Stanley 10.55 10.20 3.43%
IVC InvoCare $11.96 Macquarie 12.65 10.25 23.41%
MIN Mineral Resources $77.34 Morgan Stanley 81.90 77.00 6.36%
NCM Newcrest Mining $29.66 Macquarie 33.00 28.00 17.86%
Ord Minnett 32.00 31.00 3.23%
PAC Pacific Current Group $7.01 Ord Minnett 11.20 11.40 -1.75%
Summaries
4DX 4DMedical Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.80
AKE Allkem Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.12
ARU Arafura Rare Earths Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.49
CHN Chalice Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.80
CNU Chorus Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.91
CPU Computershare Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $22.19
EVN Evolution Mining Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.51
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.51
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.51
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $3.51
GQG GQG Partners Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.40
HLO Helloworld Travel Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $2.36
HT1 HT&E Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.11
IGO IGO Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.55
IVC InvoCare Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.83
MIN Mineral Resources Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $78.87
NCM Newcrest Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $29.74
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $29.74
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $29.74
PAC Pacific Current Group Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.66
PLS Pilbara Minerals Initiation of coverage with Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.69
PTM Platinum Asset Management Sell - UBS Overnight Price $1.76
PWH PWR Holdings Initiation of coverage with Buy - Citi Overnight Price $10.20
SCG Scentre Group Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.74
SNG Siren Gold Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.10
SUL Super Retail Downgrade to Sell from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.20
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.70
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

12

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

6

5. Sell

7

Wednesday 12 April 2023

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.