Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects AGL Energy will benefit from increases to wholesale forward pricing, although notes current elevated pricing is likely not sustainable. The broker notes with power sold forward one to five years, the timing of benefit realisation is difficult to predict.

The broker highlighted AGL Energy shareholders are due to vote on the proposed demerger in mid June, but expects there is increased risk of the vote failing with Mike Cannon-Brookes now holding an 11% stake in the company and intending to vote against the demerger.

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.15 from $9.30.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $0.8
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

With regional refining margins doubling since the end of the last quarter, Ord Minnett notes while current margins are likely not sustainable domestic refiners look set to benefit from a turnaround in refining profitability. 

Large inventories of low-cost crude, restrictions on exports from China and demand recovery have all supported improved profitability. The broker has updated margin expectations for Ampol's Lytton refinery, pushing forecasts well above consensus.

Ord Minnett prefers Ampol to Viva Energy ((VEA)), noting both offer compelling near- to medium-term outlooks. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $37.70 from $36.70.

Target price is $37.70 Current Price is $33.31 Difference: $4.39
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

ANZ Bank updated the market with its interim financials this morning and Citi, upon initial assessment, suggests the result looks better-than-expected, at face value, but actually represents a "miss" at the core profit level.

The optical "beat" is entirely caused by the bank writing back prior provisions, explains the broker. Citi believes the core performance looks "weak".

Citi also notes management at the bank expects improvement in H2. Rising rates should help with growing the Net Interest Margin. Buy. Target $30.75.

Target price is $30.75 Current Price is $27.26 Difference: $3.49
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.45, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Recent industry feedback and peer results suggested to Citi stronger 3Q results from Bapcor than were released yesterday. Performances in the core Trade and Retail divisions were softer than expected.

Nonetheless, the analyst sees little risk around FY22 earnings and expects upside to the consensus forecast for FY23 profit estimate, from cost-out, acquisitions and the benefits from distribution centre efficiencies.

The broker feels the company has a strong balance sheet and is attractively valued. The Buy rating is retained, while the target slips to $8.03 from $8.43 due to lower market multiples.

Target price is $8.03 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $1.63
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Equal-weight (3) -

While making an investor presentation yesterday, Bapcor reaffirmed guidance for pro forma earnings of at least FY21 levels. In the absence of lockdowns and with less supply chain pressures, Morgan Stanley noted an acceleration in 3Q revenue.

The analyst sees a partial offset from efficiency gains versus the risk to the consensus estimate for 6% sales growth in FY23 and FY24.

Equal-weight and $7.20 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $0.8
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Buy (1) -

With Bapcor reporting an improvement in sales momentum at Burson and Specialist Wholesale, and sticking with its guidance for FY22, Ord Minnett is sticking with its Buy rating and price target of $8.60.

The broker points out Burson and Specialist Wholesale represent over 70% of total sales for the group. Another point underpinning the broker's positive view is the company's expansion into Asia.

No changes were made to forecasts.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $2.2
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Presenting at the Macquarie Conference, Bellevue Gold informed of a resource/reserve update underway with results anticipated in the December quarter. Feasibility Study Optimisation work is expected  to further de-risk the project and improve productivity.

Macquarie notes it is Bellevue Gold's goal to be the lowest per-ounce carbon emitter on the ASX via renewables integration.

Outperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.57
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans assesses a disappointing 3Q trading update from Booktopia Group with an elevated cost base and ongoing margin compression. In addition, co-founder Tony Nash announced he would be standing down as ceo. The rating is lowered to Hold from Add.

Third quarter earnings (EBITDA) fell by -65% on the previous corresponding period to $1.5m. After allowing for the update and guidance, the broker lowers its FY22-FY24 earnings estimates by around -45%. The target falls to $0.95 from $1.85.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.5
If BKG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $36 target price for Breville Group following a 3Q update. It's felt near-term demand continues to be strong and supply chains appear to be more stable. 

Management reaffirmed FY22 guidance and noted new product launches are performing well. The broker points out medium-term sales growth of 15% is being supported by new country launches. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $22.91 Difference: $13.09
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.53, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Breville Group reaffirmed its guidance for FY22 and Ord Minnett notes this remains consistent with market consensus. The broker feels more confident its own forecast of FY22 EBIT of $163m will be achieved.

Ord Minnett retains the view this company has a meaningful runway of growth ahead, fueled by expansion into new geographies.

The Buy rating remains in place, while the target price declines to $30 from of $33.00. No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $22.91 Difference: $7.09
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.53, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Breville Group has reaffirmed guidance and announced expansion into three new geographies (Korea, Scandinavia and Poland) in a trading update.

UBS says the company continues to build inventory to hedge against supply-side risks, and notes that exposure to Shanghai (in lockdown) is capped at 5% and estimates the Russian sales impact at 1%-2%.

UBS expects the company will post a 16% EPS compound annual growth rate between FY23 and FY26.

Buy rating and $34 target price retained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $22.91 Difference: $11.09
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.53, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

While there may be near-term demand for BlueScope Steel's products, Citi feels the mid-term macroeconomic environment may weigh. The Buy rating remains though the target price falls to $22.50 from $25.

The broker points out there's a risk monetary conditions tighten faster/more than anticipated, which may lower US steel consumption and pricing.

More positively, the analyst expects residential detached construction to remain at capacity, potentially for multiple years.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $19.61 Difference: $2.89
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.63, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -

According to Capitol Health, elective surgery restrictions in Victoria have left a -$10m revenue loss for the company and impacted on earnings margins, but Credit Suisse feels the company has delivered a solid performance when compared to the industry.

The broker notes with restrictions eased a steady recovery is underway, and expects a strong underlying business will emerge when conditions normalise. Credit Suisse has lowered its earnings per share forecasts -11.2-13.8% for FY22 and FY23.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.42 from $0.45.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.09
If CAJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Following Costa Group's presentation at the Macquarie Conference, the broker believes Costa is well-placed to deliver on latent earnings potential from significant growth capex across the business to date.

The broker further notes Costa's share price performance (-29%) remains significantly diverged from consensus forward earnings forecasts (-14%) over twelve months. Earnings delivery should help restore some market confidence and help close this spread.

Outperform and $3.80 target retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.74
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COH as Add (1) -

In a transaction that Morgans considers attractively valued, Cochlear aims to acquire a loss making hearing implant business from Danish company Demant Oticon for -$180m in cash.

The analyst explains the acquisition would strengthen Cochlear's position in the bone-anchored hearing aid segment and provide access to an over 75,000 installed base which can be leveraged over time.

Morgans makes no changes to its earnings estimates and the target price rises to $244.5 from $233.2 after multiples are rolled forward in the broker's financial model. Add.

Target price is $244.50 Current Price is $226.69 Difference: $17.81
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $227.58, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Presenting at the Macquarie Conference, Computershare reiterated FY guidance, with margin income growth offsetting lower core earnings. Inflationary pressures are expected  to persist into FY23 but will be more than offset by higher margin income.

The company is working on further cost-outs, the UK mortgage servicing sale is ongoing, all debt balances have been converted to floating rates and strong wage inflation across all business lines is expected to continue in FY23.

Marking margin income yields to market, the broker lifts its target to $36 from $25, Outperform retained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $12.1
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.95, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Lighten (4) -

Not much enthusiasm is emanating from today's update on Computershare with the latter sticking with its FY22 guidance, while also noting the legacy operations are underperforming, but margin income provides the positive offset.

Ord Minnett sticks with its Lighten recommendation, alongside a price target of $23.67, unchanged.

Target price is $23.67 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.95, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

After a strong run for Corporate Travel Management's share price, Citi downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy due to a more balanced risk/reward profile.

The analyst anticipates less upside risk for the company's earnings over the next 12-18 months. Also, it's estimated that management's earnings guidance is still materially short of the consensus forecast.

Some future headwinds the broker lists include a higher (lower-margin) domestic mix in total transaction value (TTV), and a slow ramp-up in International capacity. The target falls to $25.49 from $28.05.

Target price is $25.49 Current Price is $24.96 Difference: $0.53
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $30 target price for Corporate Travel Management despite 3Q results that showed omicron was a major headwind. It's thought the 3Q update was still strong and an earnings recovery into FY23 is on-track.

The analyst points out March activity had improved to more than 70% of pre-covid volumes in all regions except Asia, while industry feedback suggests a further recovery is coming. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.96 Difference: $5.04
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Corporate Travel Management's March-quarter result missed consensus and UBS' forecasts due to a stronger than expected omicron impact.

EPS forecasts fall -50% in FY22, -10% in FY23 and are steady in FY24.

But otherwise, UBS notes the company posted a record March quarter, a stronger April, continues to outperform its competitors and that momentum should continue into FY23 and FY24.

The broker spies a good funding capacity and accretive M&A opportunities in UK and Europe. Buy rating and $28.20 target price retained.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $24.96 Difference: $3.24
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWN as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Negative news for Crown Resorts in that the Victorian government has proposed an increased tax rate for electronic gaming machines at Crown Resort’s Melbourne casino, to be implemented from 1 July 2023.

In response, Ord Minnett has reduced forecasts by -3-5% from FY24 onwards.

The broker does not believe this will have any impact on the intended acquisition by the KKR-led international consortium.

Target price trimmed to $13.30 from $13.60. Downgrade to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $12.84 Difference: $0.46
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

The take-out from Cleanaway Waste Management's presentation to the Macquarie Conference was that while one-offs, covid issues and costs contiue to affect trading, management's tone was assuring given the longer-term tailwinds the business continues to enjoy.

Cleanaway is in a formidable competitive position, the broker suggests, and valuation is reasonable compared to US peers. The broker's sum-of-the-parts-based target price of $3.65, down from $3.85, implies a valuation in line with a market cap-weighted average of peers.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.6
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Hold (3) -

Morgans feels the negative share price reaction to Cleanaway Waste Management's 2H trading update is overdone. Higher fuel and labour costs and one-off operational disruptions in the 2H are expected to be partly offset by lagged recoveries/price escalators.

Management has traditionally stated that fuel price movements have close to a neutral impact on the business, apart from lags in timing for recoveries. The broker retains its Hold rating and $2.87 target price.

Target price is $2.87 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Accumulate (2) -

Cleanaway Waste Management is now guiding for margins in the second half to be lower than the first half, incorporating a -$15-20m earnings reduction in the second half with the company impacted by one-off items and operational challenges according to Ord Minnett.

Despite this, the broker notes lagged impacts of contract repricing and passed-through cost inflation should support margins in FY23. Cleanaway's trading update implies consensus earnings need to be lowered by -3%, the broker reports.

The Accumulate rating and target price of $3.30 are retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.25
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Neutral (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management reports operational disruption from the floods and labour shortages, as well as rising costs, in its March-quarter trading update.

This is likely to result in margin compression in the second half, notes UBS, despite strong volumes in the Sydney Resource Network post covid.

The broker says defensive attributes are already reflected in the share price and given the company's Waste-to-Energy project is unlikely to yield benefits any time soon, UBS retains a Neutral rating and $2.95 target price.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Overweight (1) -

Upgraded FY22 DPS guidance by Dexus was in-line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. While the upgrade may have been expected, the analyst's takeaway from the 3Q update is that the Office market appears to have bottomed out.

The analyst also gained the impression that management is confident regarding the pipeline. The company noted Atlassian and Waterfront are likely to be brought online by December 22.

The Overweight rating and $12.57 target price are unchanged. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $12.57 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.5
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.29, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Neutral (3) -

Presenting at the Macquarie Conference, Inghams Group bemoaned an ongoing tale of woe, with war, pestilence, fires and floods conspiring to keep chook-feed costs elevated.

Production levels have nevertheless significantly improved and Inghams is approaching a full product range being produced. Core poultry volume growth was 5.6% in the first half and that trend looks to have continued, the broker notes.

Higher for longer costs have the broker's target falling to $2.89 from $3.38, Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.02
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Hold (3) -

Following omicron impacts in WA and New Zealand, floods, and inflationary pressures that include higher grain prices, Inghams Group 3Q trading update was weaker than Morgans forecast.

The question the analyst poses going forward is: to what extent will price rises and the company's continuous improvement program offset ongoing headwinds? Given the near-term earnings uncertainty, particularly around grain prices, the Hold rating is retained. 

The target price falls to $3.09 from $3.62.

Target price is $3.09 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.22
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reassesses its view of Mirvac Group following a slowdown in the residential cycle, and the recent development investor day, and downgrades its rating to Equal-Weight from Overweight.

The analyst feels the profits associated with the company's $12.9bn pipeline lack the certainty of the FY16-22 period when development profits were secured three years in advance.

The target price falls to $2.60 from $3.30 after the broker applies a more balanced 25/50/25 weighting to its bull/base/bear valuations from 35/50/15. The target is also impacted by less aggressive cap rate and residential assumptions. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

Medibank Private is guiding to a strong final quarter for the year, with the company reiterating full year resident policyholder growth guidance of 3.1-3.3% despite year-to-date growth of 2.3%, as noted by Credit Suisse.

The company also experienced a record number of joins for its overseas portfolio, with recovery taking place quicker than Credit Suisse had expected.

The broker expects earnings growth to continue for Medibank Private, noting further growth investment of excess capital could see capital management achieve 3.6% earnings per share accretion.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.52 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.32
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash has entered supply agreement with Australian United Retailers for five years. UBS says the agreement removes a risk and is a positive sign from a major Metcash stakeholder.

Meanwhile, UBS says Metcash has enjoyed solid market share gains thanks to strong local expenditure but expects this to moderate post covid. But the broker says the market is well aware of these trends and expects store reinvestment by independent retailers will moderate declines.

Buy rating retained. Target price steady at $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.2
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target price for Orica to $17.40 from $17.10 due to likely benefits from higher amonium nitrate prices in the long term. Nonetheless, there is a risk to 1H earnings from supply constraints and ammonia pass-through lags.

The broker expects pricing increases on the 20-30% of APA Group ((APA) contracts which are up for renewal this year The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

The company's 1H results are due on Thursday May 12.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $16.35 Difference: $1.05
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Lighten (4) -

OZ Minerals' quarterly update is labelled a 'non-event' by Ord Minnett, with the broker highlighting slightly higher costs and no change in management's FY22 guidance.

Ord Minnett is concerned, however, about cost inflation and "frothy markets". Lighten rating retained, alongside a price target of $22.20.

Estimates have been upgraded.

Target price is $22.20 Current Price is $24.46 Difference: minus $2.26 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.61, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QAN as Underperform (5) -

Off the back of strong cash sales Qantas Airways has reduced net debt to $4.5bn at the end of April, down from $5.5bn in December. Credit Suisse notes leisure bookings have exceeded pre-covid levels by 10%, while corporate demand is at 85% of pre-covid levels.

The airline intends to purchase twelve A350s to allow for non-stop long haul flights from Australia from the end of 2025, and Credit Suisse expects the project will require capital expenditure of -$3.0-3.6bn, largely impacting FY25-27.

Assuming domestic demand will remain high, Credit Suisse has increased its earnings forecasts 1.9% and 2.5% for FY23 and FY24.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.05 from $4.70.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas Airways' third-quarter trading update pleased UBS, new company guidance outpacing both consensus and the broker, thanks to a sharp rise in positive free cash flow, thanks to strength in domestic, international, and loyalty and freight.

The company now expects to return to profitability in FY23. Fuel prices remain a sticking point but the airline plans to raise fares given the strength of pent-up demand.

Meanwhile, the airline plans to purchase 12 A350-1000 fuel-efficient long-range aeroplanes to meet growth demands, which Qantas expects will provide an internal rate of return in the mid teens over the investment's life.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $6.65 from $5.76.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.85
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Despite Citi raising its FY22 earnings forecasts by around 3% following Super Retail's 3Q trading update, the de-rating of peer multiples leads to the target price easing to $14.40 from $14.50.

The update showed ongoing strength in sales, particularly at Supercheap Auto and BCF, highlights the analyst. The Buy rating is maintained given the shares are still thought to be oversold following the company's 1H result.

Citi also feels market concerns are overblown regarding too much inventory being kept on hand.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $4.16
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

Super Retail has delivered a stronger than anticipated third quarter according to Credit Suisse, with the company suggesting there may be opportunity to expand the store network 11% by 2026.

Highlights of the update include year-on-year comparable store sales growth of 8.4% for Supercheap Auto and 7.6% for BCF, with Rebel Sports the only brand reporting a comparable sales decline as the brand suffered inventory constraints.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.40 from $13.82.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $4.16
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail used the Macquarie Conference to reveal a record Easter, with FY22 to date sales now up 24.7% on FY20. Performance is being supported by the company's disciplined approach to inventory, suggests Macquarie, holding "safety stock" in the face of supply constraints.

The broker suggests Super Retail continues to manage demand and the operational climate effectively.

Neutral retained. Target falls to $10.57 from $12.13 as the broker lowers discretionary sector multiples to reflect current macro conditions.

Target price is $10.57 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $0.33
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Citi's takeaway from recent results for Treasury Wine Estates' peer Pernod Ricard is that alcohol demand in the US (post reopening) is strong, particularly in the on-premise channel. This outcome is seen as a positive for Treasury Americas.

On the other hand, Pernod Ricard's results suggest to the broker Treasury’s wine volumes through grey channels may be endangered by the recent Chinese lockdowns. The Buy rating and $13.78 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $13.78 Current Price is $11.39 Difference: $2.39
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

With regional refining margins doubling since the end of the last quarter, Ord Minnett notes while current margins are likely not sustainable domestic refiners look set to benefit from a turnaround in refining profitability. 

Large inventories of low-cost crude, restrictions on exports from China and demand recovery have all supported improved profitability. The broker has updated margin expectations for Viva Energy's Geelong refinery, pushing forecasts well above consensus.

Ord Minnett prefers Ampol ((ALD)) to Viva Energy, noting both offer compelling near- to medium-term outlooks. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy and the target price increases to $2.95 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.19
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Presenting at the Macquarie Conference, Wesfarmers reiterated the benefits of its "every day low prices" strategy as cost pressures build and shoppers feel the pinch.

The Australian Pharmaceutical Industries acquisition presents a growth opportunity in health, wellbeing & beauty. Macquarie reports the company is looking to leverage integration with OneDigital and OnePass.

Longer-term debt refinancing has left Wesfarmers in a conservative gearing position, the broker notes, allowing capacity for further capex to drive return on invested capital. Neutral and $54.50 target retained.

Target price is $54.50 Current Price is $49.10 Difference: $5.4
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.10, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOW as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

While Credit Suisse acknowledges a solid third quarter result from Woolworths Group, the broker expects softer than anticipated inflation and higher than expected costs will likely temper more bullish expectations.

The broker noted shelf prices for Australian Food increased 2.7% in the quarter, compared to an expected 4%, although 4.4% comparable growth for Australia Food sales did exceed expectations.

Credit Suisse expects inflated costs and staff absenteeism to continue to impact in the coming quarter.

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price increases to $33.89 from $33.35.

Target price is $33.89 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: minus $4.55 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Australian food performed well for Woolworths in the March quarter with sales up 5.4%, driven by growth in online, higher in-home consumption and price inflation, Macquarie notes.

Big W sales declined -5.4% due to an omicron-impacted January.

Consumer staples will outperform the broader market in the current inflationary environment, the broker suggests, but among the supermarkets, Macquarie prefers both Coles ((COL)) and Metcash ((MTS)) over Woolworths. Neutral and $38.20 target retained.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Hold (3) -

Third quarter Australian Food sales growth for Woolworths Group was slightly above Morgans expectations while NZ Food and BIG W were a slight miss.

Management noted trading momentum in the 4Q for Australian Food and BIG W has continued, while the NZ Food business is beginning to stabilise after covid and supply chain disruption.

Despite a small decrease in earnings forecasts, the broker raises its target price to $40.35 from $37.15 due to a roll forward of the analyst's financial model to FY23 forecasts. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $40.35 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: $1.91
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Accumulate (2) -

Following the release of Woolworths Group's third quarter result, Ord Minnett notes the company maintained its clear market leadership over Coles Group ((COL)). 

The broker noted inflation impacted through the quarter, but the company has largely passed this through to customers through shelf price increases. The broker anticipates inflation to peak at 5.6% in the first quarter of FY23.

New Zealand operations suffered the impacts of higher costs, supply chain constraints and absenteeism in the period, reflected in the region's earnings. Ord Minnett now forecasts second half earnings of NZ$133m, a -21% year-on-year decline.

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $40.00 from $39.50.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: $1.56
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Sell (5) -

Woolworths Group's March-quarter sales proved a mixed bag, sales missing consensus and UBS' forecasts, Australian food like-for-like sales outpacing, and NZ food also proving a miss due to covid disruption (and its earnings are forecast to fall in the second half).

Challenges remain, supplier cost inflation expected to drive more price increases, and the company plans to hold gross margins flat, says UBS

But it's steady as she goes, the broker spying solid trading momentum heading into the June quarter in Australian Food and Big W, thanks to a strong Easter. EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY22 and 3% in FY23.

UBS remains cautious given forecast low population growth and prefers Coles' ((COL)) exposure to the covid reopening.

Sell rating retained. Target price rises to $36 from $34.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.12, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources