Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.

The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.

With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.

Morgans' Buy rating and 30c target for Amplitude Energy are unchanged.

Among small caps, the company stands as the broker's sole top pick, with the team’s strong operational execution, rising output, and ongoing cost reductions reinforcing the investment case.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.04
If AEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, Citi trims its target price to $11.50 from $12, retaining a Buy rating. The -13% sell-off in the stock is viewed as excessive.

The analyst believes a re-rating is possible with a strong Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) pipeline and 900MW of further final investment decisions expected before the end of FY27.

More visibility on the quality of BESS earnings will support the case when Liddell arrives in early 2026, commentary suggests.

Citi lowers its FY26 earnings forecast by -10% on higher costs, but the valuation is considered "inexpensive".

****

Citi's early response does not make for comfortable reading (if you're an AGL Energy shareholder) with FY25 earnings, cash and final dividend all below expectations and on top an FY26 guidance that equally falls short.

The broker suggests lower wholesale pricing from the Bayswater outage and high retail competition are to blame. New FY26 guidance reflects higher coal and gas procurement costs as legacy contracts roll off.

While cost pass-through should soften the near-term impact, Citi points out expiry of the low-priced QGC gas contract in FY28 could see earnings lower by some -$300m (annualised).

Among positives, commentary suggests, Liddell BESS remains on track for early 2026 COD.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.62
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its target for AGL Energy to $10.91 from $11.13 to reflect marginally lower earnings (EBITDA) forecasts, following FY25 results.

FNArena's summary of Macquarie's initial research yesterday follows.

Today's FY25 results for AGL Energy revealed earnings (EBITDA) of $2,010m, 2% ahead of Macquarie's forecast, with underlying profit of $640m also ahead.

FY26 earnings guidance of $1.92–2.22bn and profit of $500–700m is broadly in line with expectations, underpinned by a rebound in coal generation and stable pricing, notes the analyst in an early assessment.

Consumer earnings were weaker, highlights the broker, with earnings down to $298m from $384m on softer gas and electricity margins.

Wholesale electricity earnings fell on outages and lower pricing, explains the analyst, but are expected to recover, while battery contributions rose to $45m and are set for further growth from FY27.

Capex guidance of around -$1.5bn is above Macquarie's forecast, mainly due to timing, with a development pipeline including 0.9GW of battery projects.

Target price is $10.91 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.03
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes AGL Energy's FY25 net profit was down -21% y/y to $640m, and fell short of its forecast by -5%.

FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $1.92-2.22bn was -3% lower than the broker's estimate of $2.138bn at the midpoint. Rising depreciation, rehabilitation and interest costs more than offset gains from efficiency and higher battery contributions.

The broker is encouraged by progress towards FY27 targets and sees upside to cap prices for battery.

Target cut to $9.68 from $11.88 on higher capex forecasts, commodity and certificate mark-to-market and higher net debt, partly offset by higher Tilt valuation and roll-forward.

Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.68 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $0.8
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett notes AGL Energy's FY25 earnings fell short of its estimate by -5% and the consensus by -7%, impacted by outages at two power stations.

FY26 guidance was also a disappointment, falling short of the consensus by -3% on EBITDA and by -11% on net profit.

The company highlighted contribution from battery storage systems will offset oil and gas contract rollovers in FY28, but the broker expects net profit impact to be minimal.

Overall, a -18.8% cut to the broker's FY26 EPS forecast and a -21.3% cut to FY27, with FY28 seeing a tiny 0.6% lift.

Target cut to $11 from $12. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.12
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

AGL Energy's soft FY25 report has put the share price under pressure, but UBS is suggesting the market is too short-sighted. At the current price margin compression is being accounted for, but not the EPS upside longer term.

Hence, the broker has upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

UBS argues cheap legacy gas and coal supply contracts expiring and being replaced with higher cost fuels is now factored in, but this impact can be entirely overwhelmed by new earnings from accelerated investment in grid-scale batteries.

For now, forecasts have been reduced, with negatives (see also above) partially offset by a higher electricity pricing outlook. Target drops to $10.65 from $11.50.

Origin Energy ((ORG)) is the broker's sector favourite, with APA Group ((APA)) least preferred. AGL Energy sits in between.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $1.77
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

A lack of further bad news was considered a positive for Amotiv's FY25 earnings report, according to Citi, noting that the result was pre-released on July 22, with FY26 guidance aligning with consensus expectations.

The challenge for the stock is that investors place the lowest valuation multiple on the powertrain and undercar division, which generated 3.3% revenue growth and is outperforming what is perceived as the higher quality segments for the business.

Revenue grew 1.7% for 4WD, and Lighting, Power & Electrical revenue declined by -1.9%.

Buy rating maintained. Target $12.56 (was $12.35).

Target price is $12.56 Current Price is $9.38 Difference: $3.18
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AOV as Outperform (1) -

Amotiv’s FY25 result was mixed across segments, assesses Macquarie, but shows strong progress on the Amotiv Unified program.  Wave 1 has delivered $15m in gross benefits by year-end, well ahead of the November-2026 target.

The broker notes Lighting, Power and Electrical's (LPE) revenue fell -8% year-on-year with margins down -80bps, but stabilised in 2H on pricing gains and headcount reductions.

The FY26 trading outlook remains challenging, with resilience in wear-and-repair offset by ongoing weakness in 4WD, caravan/RV, and LPE reseller demand.

Guidance is $195m in earnings (EBITA), up 1.6%, is seen by the analyst as achievable with upside if market conditions improve. At  least 1% growth is expected from Amotiv Unified benefits.

Macquarie lifts its target price to $11.66 from $10.90 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $11.66 Current Price is $9.38 Difference: $2.28
If AOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Largely unsurprising FY25 result from Amotiv, given most numbers were pre-released, Morgans notes, but FY26 guidance EBITDA guidance was soft with just 2% growth.

The broker is estimating $194.5m EBITDA in FY26, marginally below the company's $195m forecast. Balance sheet remains solid with leverage of 1.9x within the company's 1.5x-2.25x target.

Despite largely in-line result, the broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 4.2% and FY27 by 8.6%, after assuming full 5% buyback (3% previously) and improved margin estimates on reciprocal tariff changes.

Buy. Target lifted to $11.25 from $10.75.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $9.38 Difference: $1.87
If AOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, UBS lifts its EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 by 2%. Revenue has been trimmed due to soft demand across multiple channels, but margin estimates are increased due to the robust 2H25 results and additional cost savings.

Target raised to $11. Buy rating retained.

*****

Today's FY25 results for Amotiv were in line with guidance, highlights UBS in first impressions, with revenue of $997m up 1% year-on-year. Earnings (EBITDA) of $226m also rose 1%, and profit (NPATA) of $119m was flat but 3% ahead of the broker's forecast.

Margins were slightly better than expected from cost and efficiency gains, while cash conversion was strong at 90.6%, assess the analysts. Net debt of $382m remained at 1.9x times earnings, within target.

By division, 4WD and Touring (4WD&T) and Lighting, Power & Electrical (LPE) earnings fell -5.5% year-on-year.

Powertrain & Undercar (P&U) rose 3%, with wear-and-repair demand holding up, US/EU revenue growing, and A&NZ P&U sales marginally higher, explain the analysts.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.38 Difference: $1.62
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS has decided to downgrade APA Group to Sell from Neutral. Motivation: the shares have re-rated of late while nothing fundamentally has changed to the funding challenges the pipeline operator is facing.

The broker does acknowledge APA has considerable greenfield growth opportunities, but counters the current track record justifies a more cautious outlook for new assets.

Small amendments have been made to estimates and modeling. Target price has gained 50c to $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie decides to raise its target for Arena REIT to $4.01 from $3.96 and keep an Outperform rating following FY25 results.

A summary of the broker's first thoughts yesterday follows.

After an initial glance at today's FY25 result, Macquarie notes Arena REIT’s operating EPS of 18.55c was -1.1% below the broker's forecast but in line with consensus. EBIT was slightly ahead offset by higher finance costs.

FY26 dividend guidance of 19.25c is around 1% above both Macquarie and consensus expectations.

Portfolio metrics remain strong, suggests the broker, with 100% like-for-like occupancy at June 2025 and the net rent to revenue ratio improving to 9.9%.

FY25 like-for-like net operating income (NOI) rose 3.5% year-on-year, supported by CPI and market rent reviews averaging 6.8%, with around 10% of income subject to market reviews in FY26, notes the analyst.

The broker explains the -$227m development pipeline covers 29 projects, all due for completion by FY27, with gearing at 22.8% and undrawn debt capacity of $163m providing funding flexibility.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.28
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Arena REIT's FY25 results as a good set, with profit of $73m meeting its forecast. FY26 DPS guidance was slightly ahead of its estimate, driven by 6.8% average market rent review uplift for 30 childcare assets.

The broker notes the development pipeline has 29 projects but yield on cost was down to 6% vs 6.1% in 1H. However, the forward-looking cost of debt is over 5%, so while projects remain accretive, the margin is narrowing.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $4.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.77
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Arena REIT reported an in-line FY25 result, with FY26 dividend guidance coming in 1% better than UBS expected.

Like-for-like growth of 3.5% beat the analyst's forecast of 3%, with 100% occupancy and the WALE moving out to 19.3 years from 18.8 years. Nevertheless, UBS finds the growth outlook rather ho-hum, with like-for-like growth slowing with CPI, as around 85% of the leases are CPI-linked.

The REIT's low gearing and strength of balance sheet allow for capex to support growth.

Target moves to $4.06 from $4.19. Neutral rated.

Target price is $4.06 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.33
If ARF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Abacus Storage King reported funds from operations and distribution which met both Citi and consensus expectations.

Marginally weaker storage revenue was offset by more robust financing costs.

Management's top end of FY26 guidance is in line with expectations, with investors to remain focused on M&A potential as the stock is trading around a circa -8% discount to the revised NTA of $1.74 due to a -10bps decline in cap rates to 5.45%.

Buy rated. Target $1.73.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.13
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX reported growth in FY25 net profit after tax of 7.5%, which, on first glance, was in line with Citi's forecast and consensus.

Improved cost controls, 30bps better than guidance, offset a slight miss on revenue.

Cash equities and an ongoing recovery in derivative volumes boosted market activity, with tech and data revenue coming in slightly better than expected due to robust demand for data across equity and derivatives.

Management reconfirmed costs guidance for FY26 and capex. Cost growth is flagged at 14%–19%, and capex is guided to -$170m–$180m.

Dividend payout ratio at 85% as expected. Neutral rated. Target $71.60.

Target price is $71.60 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: $1.21
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.01, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Very little enthusiasm from Macquarie analysts who, in an initial response to today's FY25 result release, believe the ASX's performance has failed to meet consensus.

Macquarie believes its own forecasts were slightly above the market. Guidance regarding opex and capex for FY26 were unchanged, albeit, the analysts note, guidance now includes the impact of the additional ASIC enquiry costs which were pre-released.

Macquarie cannot get excited, referring to ongoing challenges around expenses. The analysts look for margins to stabilise and delivery of technology upgrades before considering changing their view.

Neutral. Target $65.50.

Target price is $65.50 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $4.89 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.01, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS, upon initial assessment, comments the ASX has released an in-line FY25 result, but slightly softer average futures fees and retained cost growth outlook suggest slight downside risk to the FY26 EPS outlook.

The broker argues the exchange is still facing uncertainty over recurring cost increases into FY27 post the ASIC Inquiry plus significant risks regarding the CHESS replacement delivery and related capex.

Sell. Target $63.65.

Target price is $63.65 Current Price is $70.39 Difference: minus $6.74 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.01, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.

The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.

With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.

Morgans keeps its $1.16 target for Beach Energy. While the stock has underperformed with an 8% gain since April, the analyst  still downgrades to Trim from Hold.

The broker cautions that the company has been hurt by poor execution from its Waitsia partner Mitsui and its contractors, and warns this risk will persist even after production begins.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Ahead of FY25 results for steel companies, UBS sees mixed outlook with near-term demand soft particularly in the US while 12-month EPS growth outlook is supported by elevated steel prices.

Specifically, the broker highlights S232 tariffs have left to an increase in US steel spreads to US$487/st now from US$315/st in February.

BlueScope Steel is the broker's key pick over Vulcan Steel ((VSL)) and Sims ((SGM)).

The broker expects focus on 1H26 EBIT guidance at the result, expecting the company to give $530-600m range vs its estimate of $563m. Commentary on how the company will manage the soft September quarter will be watched.

Buy. Target cut to $27.00 from $28.50 on roll-forward. 

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.96 Difference: $3.04
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.81, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Bravura Solutions’ FY25 revenue came in around 3% above guidance and earnings (EBITDA) around 6% ahead, helped by currency, UK R&D incentives, and stronger professional services, explains Macquarie.

FY26 guidance is for flat revenue despite a -4.5% attrition headwind, notes the broker, with cash earnings expected to exceed $50m (versus $43.8m in FY25), implying at least a -3% opex reduction.

Customer exits from both FY25 and prior years will weigh on revenue, suggests Macquarie, though existing clients, cross-sell, and some new wins should offset.

The broker's EPS forecasts rise 27–32% for FY26–27, but the broker cuts its long-term growth assumption due to client attrition risk and growth contribution from cost out.

The target price falls to $2.03 from $3.17. Macquarie also downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.01
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Hold (3) -

Chrysos' FY25 unaudited revenue of $66.1m and earnings (EBITDA) of $16.1m are respectively up 46% and 80%, year-on-year and ahead of Bell Potter’s forecasts.

The broker attributes the result to higher utilisation rates in 2H25, with five new units deployed in the June quarter lifting minimum monthly assay payments (MMAP) to $55.9m.

FY26 guidance is for revenue of $80–90m and earnings (EBITDA) of $20–27m. The analysts view guidance as conservative given expected average assay capacity (AAC) growth and margin expansion above FY25’s 24%.

Four early FY26 lease wins take total lease agreements to 62, of which 40 are deployed, observes the broker, while liquidity fell to $91.1m after higher deployment capex.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $6.70 from $4.40 and retains a Hold rating driven by an increase in the broker's terminal growth rate  to 4.0% from 3.6%.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.75, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

On further inspection, Citi believes the impact of lower interest rates will be more noticeable in FY26, with the repricing of deposits more challenging due to competition.

The analyst forecasts another year of negative jaws to achieve around 1% core earnings growth. Higher bad debts are flagged, with flat cash earnings. Sell rated with a $110 target.

***** 

Citi's early assessment is CommBank's result release earlier today is slightly better or inline on various metrics. A revenue 'beat' was the optical highlight in the result, with the NIM well managed to a stable 2.08%, as expected, and better loan growth, largely from insto/business.

The broker also highlights revenue benefited from a $125m trading income beat while costs were slightly higher than its own expectations, with investment in technology to blame.

DPS of 485cps is in-line and CET1 a touch better at 12.3%. Overall, Citi labels today's release "a largely in-line result but with some lower quality boosts".

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $169.12 Difference: minus $59.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $112.81, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses CommBank's FY25 as a no-surprise one, with 2H25 earnings, operating trends, capital and dividend meeting expectations. 

Also, no surprise is the broker's doubt the bank can deliver earnings or franchise momentum to justify the elevated multiples. The broker's FY26 margin forecast of 209bps is above the consensus on benefits from deposit re-pricing and replicating portfolio. 

Revenue growth is also expected to improve to 6% from 5% in FY25, while expense growth is estimated to moderate to 4% from 6%.

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 1%. Target rises to $131 from $129.

Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $131.00 Current Price is $169.12 Difference: minus $38.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $112.81, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Morgans notes there were no material surprises in CommBank's FY25 results, even though higher revenue but also higher cost growth, and lower effective tax rate resulted in a 1% beat to EPS.

On the positive side, stronger net interest income drove 4% beat on revenue, balance sheet was strong and the bank briefed on AI investments. Key negatives were weaknesses in retail and NZ, higher cost growth and limited dividend upside.

The broker lifted FY26-28 EPS forecasts by 2%. 

Target rises to $100.85 from $97.40. Sell retained, with the broker recommending clients aggressively reduce overweight positions.

Target price is $100.85 Current Price is $169.12 Difference: minus $68.27 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $112.81, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank's record FY25 cash earnings and final dividend largely met market expectations and Ord Minnett notes the flat net interest margin of 2.08% was a strong outcome.

The broker reckons margins were helped by equity hedge positions and replicating portfolio but sees this as difficult to sustain in a falling interest rate environment and heightened competition.

The broker is forecasting 2.05% NIM in FY26 and 2.02% in FY27, with downside risk dependent on how low the RBA cash rate goes.

EPS forecast for FY26 lowered by -0.1% and by -0.9% for FY27.

Sell. Target unchanged at $105, with the broker re-iterating its negative view on the banking sector.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $169.12 Difference: minus $64.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $112.81, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank's broadly in line FY25 result has triggered a slightly higher price target at UBS --$125 instead of $120-- but the Sell rating remains in place as the shares are still trading well above that level.

Singing CommBank's praises, the broker states CBA is best of breed in Australia and playing the long game, notably around AI investments which could facilitate efficiency improvements, but the focus is now on the more immediate headwinds on NIM and rising costs.

Relatively minor adjustments have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $169.12 Difference: minus $44.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $112.81, suggesting downside of -32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -1% in FY26 and FY27, with the stock looking fairly "fully priced", particularly given some questions around the quality of earnings growth in FY26.

Neutral rating retained. Target price slips to $40.40 from $40.90.

*****

Computershare’s FY25 diluted EPS rose 15% year-on-year in constant FX, in line with guidance, but around -1% below consensus due to a higher tax rate, explains Citi.

Revenue was around 1% above the broker's forecasts, helped by stronger Issuer Services, Corporate Trust, and margin income, though higher costs left EBIT in line.

Pro-forma operating costs worsened -5.1% year-on-year, but upgraded cost-out targets of -US$18m should limit FY26 cost growth to around 2%, assesses the broker.

Guidance for FY26 management EPS is for a 4% rise to around US140c, assuming flat margin income of US$720m.

In line with consensus, the final unfranked final dividend was 48c, up 4% year-on-year.

Target price is $40.40 Current Price is $39.75 Difference: $0.65
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.40, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare’s FY25 result revealed no special dividend, a slight miss on the ordinary dividend, and the end of its buy-back as capital is retained for M&A, explains Macquarie.

The broker highlights a strong balance sheet with net gearing of 0.42 times, expected to fall to 0.25 times by FY26 year-end without acquisitions.

FY26 guidance is for EPS of around 140c, margin income of about $720m, and earnings (EBIT) ex-margin income growth of 5%.

Management delivered -$86m in cost savings in FY25, comprising around -$75m from operating expenses, -$2m from COGS, and -$9m from revenue synergies.

The broker's FY26 EPS forecasts are lifted by 0.2%, with minor reductions in later years on updated margin income assumptions.

Macquarie trims its target price to $37.50 from $38.00 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $39.75 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.40, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -

While some may view Computershare's FY26 guidance for 4% management EPS growth as conservative, Morgan Stanley has a different view, forecasting 2.5% growth. The shortfall is due to its lower margin income forecast of US$710m vs guidance of US$720m.

The broker notes the final FY25 dividend fell short of consensus by -5% and with no new capital management initiatives, the balance sheet looks strong.

Up to US$200-300m of EBITDA can be used for acquisition, the broker reckons. However, the company's preference is disciplined acquisitions which is difficult when trading multiples are elevated.

Target cut to $33.30 from $33.70. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $33.30 Current Price is $39.75 Difference: minus $6.45 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.40, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Speculative Hold (3) -

Coronado Global Resources’ 1H25 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of -US$73m and profit of -US$172m are in line with Bell Potter’s forecasts. No dividend was declared to preserve cash in a weak coal price environment.

The broker notes 2025 guidance is reaffirmed, with production to lift and capex to fall to around -US$80m in 2H25 as the Mammoth and Buchanan expansions complete.

The analysts remain cautious on liquidity, with further drawdown of the US$150m asset-based lending facility expected to fund outflows, and tighter covenant terms from June 2026.

The broker forecasts full run-rate production from the expansion projects by year-end, boosting earnings and cash generation, and lifts EPS forecasts by 10% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 2% for 2027.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Hold rating and raises its target to 27c from 19c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS downgrades Coronado Global Resources to Sell from Neutral after considering the updated cost, volume, and capex assumptions post 1H25 results, where the miner reported a loss of -US$73m for earnings (EBITDA), which met expectations.

The analyst was encouraged by cost discipline in the June half, with production rising and expected to lift again in 2H25 with the ramp-up of Mammoth and Buchanan.

UBS estimates Coronado will remain EPS-negative until 2026, with scope for asset sales and the ability to find funding risks to the stock.

Current liquidity suffices for the next 6–12 months, but a further circa US$225m may need to be secured, the report suggests.

Target moves to 26c from 17c.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS believes CSL continues to be undervalued, trading on a prospective price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times with an expected compound EPS growth rate over the next three years of 15% p.a., even allowing for a smaller R&D premium.

Ahead of FY25, the analyst notes its revenue forecast of 7% growth is in line with consensus, including Behring sales growth of 9% and Seqirus sales shrinking by -4%, which is also in line. Vifor sales are expected to grow 5%, which is 3% above consensus.

Gross margin for Behring is expected to lift by 120bps and net profit after tax is forecast to rise 9% in FY25 and 16% in FY26.

UBS flags potential US tariff impacts of -5% for earnings (EBIT) based on a rate of 20%, with a plasma exclusion.

Retain Buy rating and $310 target.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $269.55 Difference: $40.45
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.04, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT’s FY25 funds from operations (FFO) of 18.2cpu came in slightly ahead of guidance and Macquarie’s forecast.

FY26 guidance of 17.3c is around -7% below the broker's expectations due to -5–6% dilution from the Brisbane Technology Park divestment.

The broker notes Dexus Industria REIT is now a pure-play industrial REIT, with the divestment improving portfolio quality and freeing capacity for growth while having a broadly neutral impact on adjusted FFO and free cash flow.

Look-through gearing of 29% is set to fall to 24%, highlights the analyst, providing room to fund developments such as the -$230m ASCEND at Jandakot pipeline, which offers yields on cost above 6.25%.

Macquarie sees favourable industrial market conditions, with low vacancy and constrained supply supporting occupancy and rents.

The broker raises its target price to $2.94 from $2.86 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.94 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.11
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Buy (1) -

Morgans assesses EBR Systems' 2Q25 result as in-line, with net loss of -US$12m but cash used for operations down -US$2m on lower R&D spend.

The highlight was US$150,000 revenue in June from first three WiSE CRT devices placed in two US hospitals. Patient and physician feedback were positive but reimbursement is still expected later this year.

The broker sees the company's rollout strategy as prudent with limited market release in 4Q25, and full commercial launch in FY26.

Earnings forecasts for FY25-27 cut on lower sales forecasts but outer years retained.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.86.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $1.47
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining’s FY25 revenue of $4,351m, earnings (EBITDA) of $2,207m and profit of $958m are broadly in line with Bell Potter’s forecasts. A final dividend of 13c takes the full-year payout to 20c.

The broker notes strong operational performance, unhedged gold exposure, and higher free cash flow as capex peaks, with net debt reduced to $1,016m and gearing cut to 15%.

FY26 production guidance is steady, highlight the analysts, with around -15% higher (worse) costs offset by a $200m year-on-year fall in capex, supporting a forecast lift in free cash flow and dividends.

Bell Potter sees the company well positioned to meet its capital management priorities of growth reinvestment, debt reduction, and increased shareholder returns.

The broker raises its target price to $8.15 from $7.95 and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $0.16
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi notes Evolution Mining reported a record FY25 result of around $980/oz of cash before dividends and debt repayments, with gearing lowered to 15%.

Management has committed to 50% of free cash flow to shareholders and the balance to repaying long-term debt. Trading at a premium to its peers, Citi sees this as consistent achievement of its targets and leaves its earnings (EBITDA) forecast largely unchanged.

Estimates for FY26–FY28 net profit after tax fall by -7% to -12% on higher depreciation and amortisation.

Target price is raised to $8 from $7.60, with no change in Neutral rating, although the stock has scope to re-rate if the gold price holds, the report suggests.

*****

In an initial assessment, Citi analysts saw a "clean" result from Evolution Mining with FY results in line and FY26 expectations pre-flagged.

The analysts note today's update includes no updates on the project pipeline and also no change to the 5yr capex outlook.

A review of the -5% DRP discount has been flagged with a view to narrow that in. 

While expecting a relatively neutral market reaction to the result, the analysts see headwinds to consensus NPAT forecast for FY26, noting D&A is higher than expected for FY26, i.e. consensus at $975/oz versus $1150-1300/oz in today's update.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining’s FY25 result is in line with Macquarie’s expectations and consensus, with profit of $926m and earnings within 3% of forecasts across all key metrics. A total dividend of 20c matched guidance.

Net debt of $895m is slightly better than expected by the broker.

FY26 group guidance is unchanged at 710–780koz gold and costs (AISC) of $1,720–1,880/oz, The broker highlights new asset-level details show slightly softer Northparkes output and stronger Mt Rawdon.

A new D&A forecast of $1,225/oz is around -40% worse than Macquarie’s estimate, resulting in FY26 EPS being cut by -21%, with further reductions through FY30.

The broker’s operational outlook is largely unchanged, and the $7.00 target price is maintained. Macquarie retains an Underperform rating.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Trim (4) -

Morgans notes Evolution Mining's FY25 result was solid with underlying EBITDA at a record $2.21bn. While it met the consensus forecast, it was lower than the broker's estimate by -2%.

FY26 gold production guidance for Ernest Henry and Northparkes fell short of expectations, but guidance for copper, which is the dominant revenue driver, was in line. Production and cost guidance for other assets broadly met expectations.

The company's cash balance is expected to continue growing but focus is on maintaining 50% dividend payout ratio, and remaining on debt repayments.

Trim. Target rises to $7.30 from $7.00 on lower forecast net debt.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett highlights Evolution Mining beat its forecast on FY25 adjusted net profit by 7% and the consensus by 2%, with final dividend of 13c also coming ahead of 12c consensus.

The company provided deeper details on FY26 guidance. Higher production at Mungari and Mt Rawdon are expected to more than offset weaknesses at Northparkes and EHM, and higher capex at Red Lake expected to offset lower Cowal capex.

The broker notes the company is benefitting from higher commodity price environment, resulting in gearing reducing by -10% over the year.

Lighten. Target unchanged at $6.35.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: minus $1.64 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Growthpoint Properties Australia reported FY25 funds from operations of 23.3c, which beat both Citi's and consensus expectations. The dividend at 18c was in line with forecasts.

Funds from operations guidance is 22.8–23.6c per share and a distribution of 18.4c per share. The REIT is trading at a circa -18% discount to NTA of $3.09. Gearing improved to 39.7% from 40.2%.

Management is seeking to lease expiring space in FY26 and FY27.

Citi expects the market to support the results, with some anticipated read-through to peers of downside risks to general office valuations and upward risk to industrial valuations, with fundamentals supporting the Australian real estate market.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.06
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

At first peek, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT reported in-line FY25 funds from operations, with FY26 guidance meeting consensus and 2% above UBS estimates on lower costs. An 8.5c dividend was pre-announced.

Net disposals came in at -$70m as expected over FY26, with the strategic goal to fund developments with capex. The analyst anticipates more sales will be required in FY26/FY27, but this could be ameliorated if valuation improvements are better than expected.

Given the context around the perceived challenges for HMC Capital ((HMC)), UBS believes investors like the stability and yield of this REIT.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.12
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, Citi lifts its EPS forecasts for FY26 by 2% and for FY27 by 4%. The analyst believes the insurer is unlikely to noticeably disappoint investors in the near term due to sturdy margins.

Buy rated with $10 target retained.

****

In a first glance at today's announcement, Citi observes Insurance Australia Group's FY25 cash earnings of $1,173m beat consensus but fell slightly short of the broker’s estimate due to lower investment income.

Insurance profit of $1,743m was broadly in line with the forecast, with a 15.5% underlying margin matching expectations.

CAT costs were -$1,088m, $195m favourable versus allowance, with reserve releases of 0.3% of net earned premium (NEP) and a -0.3% negative impact from credit spreads, explain the analysts.

Retail motor and home delivered both rate and volume growth, while Intermediated and NZ results were broadly in line with the broker's forecasts.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $1.51
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Insurance Australia Group’s FY25 result was largely pre-released, with higher expenses offset by reserve releases and an additional Business Interruption provision release, explains Macquarie.

The broker notes the final dividend of 19c, 40% franked, is slightly below consensus as capital is retained for the pending Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia’s insurance business acquisition.

FY26 guidance implies to the analyst low-to-mid single-digit gross written premium (GWP) growth without M&A and around 10% with RACQ from September 2025. It's felt reinsurance savings are unlikely in year one, which may flatten margins.

The broker's EPS forecasts for FY26–28 are raised by 6.2–7.0%, mostly from a change in calculating dilution from hybrid debt instruments, adding 5–6% to EPS.

Macquarie trims its target price to $9.10 from $9.20 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $0.61
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Insurance Australia Group's FY25 insurance profit met expectations but was helped by $100m in reinsurance profit commissions, adding around 100bps to the insurance margin.

The broker notes commissions are booked conservatiely and has high confidence of $100m recurrence in FY26. The broker sees scope for long-term perils commissions to occur even if Catastrophe budget is met, due to a sliding scale structure

In FY25, both motor inflation and home inflation moderated, and while it remained strong, the broker sees limited margin expansion going forward. Overall, the broker forecasts 4.1% gross written premium growth in FY26. 

FY26-28 cash net profit forecasts lifted by 1% on higher underwriting profit, offset partly by lower investment income.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $8.45 from $8.35. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

On further inspection, UBS lifts its target price to $9.60 from $9.50 after tweaking minor forecast EPS rises of 1% for FY26/FY27.

The analyst reiterates its Buy rating and continues to see upside to the share price.

****

First impressions by UBS of today's FY25 result by Insurance Australia Group suggest profit of $1,359m came in 2-3% above the broker's expectations, with cash EPS and insurance trading results in line.

The underlying insurance trading result (ITR) margin of 15.8% in 2H25 outperformed the analysts' forecasts despite higher administrative costs.

Gross written premium (GWP) rose 4.3% to $17.1bn, broadly in line with the UBS estimate, with retail Australia up 4.3%, intermediated up 6.3%, and New Zealand up 0.3%.

FY26 guidance is for low-to-mid single-digit GWP growth excluding RACQ (10% including), insurance profit of $1.45-1.65bn, and a reported ITR margin of 14-16%, with a natural peril budget of $1,316m.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $1.11
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.

The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.

With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.

The broker's target for Karoon Energy falls to $2.05 from $2.25 and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.17
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KYP as Buy (1) -

Kinatico has launched its next generation compliance platform, ComplianceX, which Bell Potter views as a key milestone and potential share price catalyst.

The broker notes the platform has undergone extensive testing, addressing previous onboarding issues, and that delayed customer onboarding has created pent-up demand likely to boost SaaS revenue in Q1 and Q2 of FY26.

No changes are made to the analysts' forecasts. FY26 revenue is expected to grow in the low double digits and earnings (EBITDA) margins seem poised to expand as SaaS revenue rises to 57% in FY26 from 46% of total revenue in FY25.

Bell Potter expects SaaS revenue to approach 75% over coming years. The broker raises its target price to 35c from 30c and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.06
If KYP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LGI as Buy (1) -

LGI’s FY25 result is broadly in line with Bell Potter’s forecasts, with revenue of $36.8m up 10.4% year-on-year, and earnings (EBITDA) of $17.4m and profit of $6.5m both slightly ahead of expectations.

The broker notes strong operational growth, with biogas flows up 10.9%, electricity generation up 13.3%, and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) created up 14%, alongside a 43% lift in operating capacity to 21.1MW.

A new contract to assess a 12MW/24MWh battery project at Belrose lifts the funded development pipeline to 56MW.

Management's FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $21.8–22.6m implies 25–30% growth and is ahead of Bell Potter’s prior estimate.

The broker retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $4.25 from $3.65.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.6
If LGI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Citi previews 2H25 results for Monadelphous Group, pointing to the focus on a sequential improvement in margins for the period as important.

Based on a shift to a more favourable business mix, project ramp-ups, and costs plateauing, there is upside risk to margins against consensus and into FY26.

The company is expected to announce a "resilient" result with a sound order book, in spite of challenges from delays in major project awards.

Target lifted to $19.95 from $16.65 due to a higher valuation multiple being ascribed. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $19.95 Current Price is $19.93 Difference: $0.02
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.16, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Oneview Healthcare’s half year revenue rose around 36% to EUR6.3m, slightly below Bell Potter’s forecast, with growth driven mainly by non-recurring hardware deployments rather than ongoing fees.

The broker notes recurring revenue up 6.5%, with US hardware deployments generating around 96% higher recurring revenue per endpoint, offsetting the loss of a low-margin Australian customer.

Operating earnings (EBITDA) met expectations due to cost control, highlight the analysts, though gross margins fell to 61% from the larger share of lower-margin hardware sales.

Two contract wins in 1H25 are fewer than the prior period, and while the sales environment remains challenging, pipeline opportunities via channel partner Baxter could support momentum, suggests the broker.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a 34c target price.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.09
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Citi notes Orora reported an earnings (EBIT) beat by 4% against consensus forecasts. Saverglass was positive, with earnings (EBIT) better than expected by 7% due to a rise in margin of 150bps.

Revenue continued to experience challenges from volumes and a lower mix; cans were in line, as was Gawler.

Management's FY26 guidance also met expectations for EPS, with lower net profit after tax due to higher interest costs, but underpinned by a better than anticipated share buyback.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie, in an initial response, concludes Orora's FY25 performance has beaten expectations (by some 4% against its own forecast) with Saverglass one of the surprises, alongside lower D&A and lower tax.

Management's FY26 operational outlook appears broadly in line with consensus, but higher interest is a drag, the broker highlights.

Target $2.36. Outperform.

Target price is $2.36 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.25
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Orora reported around 3% growth in FY25 earnings (EBIT), which was slightly above UBS and consensus at first look due to Saverglass outperforming.

Sales rose 24%, with earnings up 10% and underlying net profit after tax rising by 18% on a year earlier.

Cans was flat on 6% volume growth and a slightly better mix, while Saverglass earnings (EBIT) slipped by -6%, with global de-stocking and weaker European demand pulling down volumes.

The G3 furnace rebuild saw Gawler earnings fall -54%. Management expects earnings growth will be subdued in FY26, which is basically in line with both the analyst's and consensus estimates.

Neutral. Target $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, it is Citi's view Origin Energy has delivered a "broadly in-line FY25 result". Commentary highlights stronger Energy Markets performance was offset by higher corporate costs and Octopus EBITDA.

Operating cash flow of $425m beat both forecasts by Citi and consensus. The broker states FY26 guidance in aggregate for available line items was better than expected at the midpoint.

APLNG production guidance is in-line, with unit capex/opex circa 5% above the broker's estimate at the midpoint.

Also noted: progress continues on the 1.5GW Yanco Delta project, with environmental approvals resubmitted. Management maintains support for the legal separation of Octopus/Kraken, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.84 Difference: $1.16
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy reported a "solid" 2H25 result on first take, with FY26 energy markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance in line and a robust balance sheet offering scope for the utility to support dividends and fund growth, according to UBS.

Many of the main financial metrics were pre-released, with the broker suggesting the market will focus on FY26 expected earnings from energy markets. Origin's share of Octopus FY26 earnings (EBITDA) is guided at levels slightly below consensus.

UBS will be focusing on any upside potential and value from the Octopus stake. The report suggests nvestors will be looking for the next growth lever to drive the stock higher after a 19% total return over the last year.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $11.84 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of FY25 results for steel companies, UBS sees mixed outlook with near-term demand soft particularly in the US while 12-month EPS growth outlook is supported by elevated steel prices.

Specifically, the broker highlights S232 tariffs have left to an increase in US steel spreads to US$487/st now from US$315/st in February.

The broker's key pick is Bluescope Steel over Vulcan Steel and Sims.

The broker is forecasting Sims' 2H25 EBITA of $98m vs consensus of $92m. Commentary suggests update on the company's strategy on improving margins for North American Metals will be interesting and whether scrap activity has followed steel prices higher.

Neutral. Target lifted to $15.00 from $14.50 on small upgrade in scrap price forecasts and roll-forward.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.77 Difference: $0.23
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.66, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim (2) -

Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.

The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.

With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.

Morgans raises its target for Santos to $8.65 from $6.80 and double-upgrades to Accumulate from Trim. The analyst explains the active offer remains a unique case, with the ADNOC consortium still highly motivated two months into due diligence and negotiations.

The broker’s confidence in Treasurer/FIRB approval has improved, viewing Santos’ balance sheet and gas reserve constraints as reasons for government support of a deep-pocketed acquirer able to boost domestic gas supply.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.75
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Suncorp Group reported an in-line result for FY25, with 2H25 gross written premium generating 3.8% growth and an announced $400m buyback, likely to be met with a lukewarm response from the market, according to UBS.

Management's FY26 guidance stands at growth in gross written premium in mid-single digits, as pricing dampens alongside easing inflation pressures. The projected expense ratio is in line, and the capital payout is at the mid-point of the 60%–80% range.

CAT budget is flagged to rise by 13.5%, which is slightly above UBS' forecasts and consensus.

The analyst highlights that top-line growth guidance should underpin the outlook for gross written premium and infers general insurance will remain "disciplined" on pricing.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $20.04 Difference: $2.46
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.43, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Its Macquarie initial impression Telstra Group's FY25 release disappointed on the headline Mobile performance, but the 'misses' highlighted are quite small.

In similar vein, it seems like key metrics including underlying EBITDA and cash EBIT equally fell short of forecasts, and equally so by small percentages.

Target $5.19. Outperform.

Target price is $5.19 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.21
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

On first look, Telstra Group reported FY25 results in line with both UBS and consensus expectations, with FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance towards the upper end of consensus.

Mobile subscriptions were softer due to the removal of idle SIMs, and stronger fixed enterprise and consumer & small business offset international.

The company also announced another buyback of up to $1bn, having completed the $750m buyback earlier this year.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

On first take, Temple & Webster reported FY25 net profit after tax of $11.3m, which missed consensus forecasts by -6.6%, with revenue slightly weaker at -1% and earnings (EBITDA) higher than expected by 5%, Citi explains.

Revenue per active customer declined to $456 from $461 a year earlier, while the exit run rate was robust, with June up 28% on last year. Earnings (EBITDA) margin was 3.1%, slightly above the top end of guidance at 3%. Cash on hand stood at $144m with no debt.

Sales from July 1 to August 11 rose 28% on the prior year, which is viewed as a good result. Cycling comps into 1H26 should be easier, with sales growth for 1H25 at 24% versus consensus 1H26 growth of 22%.

Citi believes the robust FY26 trading update and the improvement in earnings margin justify the rise in the share price of 21% over the last month. Buy.

Target price is $27.26 Current Price is $26.07 Difference: $1.19
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting downside of -23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Sell (5) -

UBS' snapshot of Temple & Webster's FY25 results showed a robust end to the period, with June sales up 28% on the prior year.

FY25 revenue was a slight miss by -1%, with earnings (EBITDA) a beat by 5%, and inventory notably lower than the analyst's forecast at $29m versus $32.9m.

The start of FY26 is strong, with first six-week sales up 28%, and margin is expected to stay within the 30%–32% range.

Commentary suggests better operating leverage should assist with a target earnings (EBITDA) margin of 3%–5%. The current buyback will remain, and management confirmed the mid-term $1bn revenue goal.

Sell rated.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $26.07 Difference: minus $10.57 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.73, suggesting downside of -23.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the September quarterly review, Morgan Stanley has added Tuas as a potential stock for inclusion in the S&P/ASX200 index.

The company is one of the broker's top small-mid-cap pick into FY26, maintaining an Overweight rating and $7.00 target. Industry View. In-Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Post the FY25 result, Citi has become more cautious on the outlook for both the US and China, with Treasury Wine Estates copping a downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

The shroud of uncertainty is not expected to lift over FY26, with downside risks seen to Penfolds guidance over FY26/FY27.

The new CEO starts Oct 27, and for the analyst to become more upbeat, some evidence of better momentum in the US is needed, as well as whether the company can offset challenging headwinds in China.

Target drops to $7 from $8.50.

****

It is Citi's first response to Treasury Wine Estates’ FY25 release earlier today that market expectations for growth in China will have to be scaled back.

The broker reminds investors industry research over the year had already led it to become more cautious on Treasury’s ability to deliver its Penfolds guidance for the years ahead.

Risk remains also for growth headwinds in the Americas but the broker argues this would come of less of a surprise to investors.

As for the result, Citi believes statutory net profit of $439.6m has missed consensus by -5%.  A full year dividend of 20cps was declared, labelled "broadly consistent" with consensus of 19.8cps.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' FY25 earnings were "solid on balance", according to Macquarie after a further review.

The broker decides to stay with its $8.00 target and Neutral rating.

FNArena yesterday summarised the broker's earlier research as follows:

In an initial take, Macquarie notes FY25 results for Treasury Wine Estates were in line with guidance, with Penfolds supported by higher pricing/mix despite China pricing pressure from parallel imports.

Treasury Americas posted a -5% year-on-year organic net sales revenue (NSR) decline (ex-DAOU), while DAOU grew 8%. Treasury Premium Brands saw a -7% NSR fall, all of which translated into a -32% EBITS decline.

For FY26, management guides to EBITS growth led by Penfolds (low-to-mid double-digit), modest gains in Treasury Americas, and a slower top-line decline in Treasury Collective.

A $200m buy-back (around 3% of market cap) was announced, with leverage expected to remain around 2.0x.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $0.28
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

The key takeaway for Morgan Stanley from Treasury Wine Estates' FY25 results was commentary pointing to another challenging year in FY26.  The result itself was in line with guidance.

The move to a new divisional operating model is expected to impact Treasury Americas' (TA) net sales revenue by -$50m, but the impact on EBITS is expected to be mitigated by cost cuts and negotiations with previous distribution partner.

With no offsets likely in FY27, the broker sees the impact in that year. Overall EBITS for TA is forecast to be flat in FY26 and down -2% in FY27.

In case of Penfolds, the company pointed to softness in June/July due to shifts in consumption trends. As a result, the broker is now more conservative about Penfolds' growth expectations.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -4.3% and FY27 by -2.0%. The revisons were driven by effective downgrade to Penfolds outlook, lower revenue base for TA, interest rate forecast changes, additional corporate costs and $200m expected share buyback.

Target cut to $8.70 from $10.75. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $0.98
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates’ FY25 result is in line with guidance, with earnings (EBITS) up 17% and profit up 15.5%, supported by the DAOU Vineyards acquisition and Penfolds’ recovery in China, explains Morgans.

The broker notes strong margin expansion, solid cash flow conversion, and an increased final dividend to 20c alongside a $200m buyback, but highlights a 2H25 slowdown in Treasury Americas.

Management expects FY26 earnings growth to be led by Penfolds, with low-to-mid double-digit growth targeted despite sales softness in China’s banquet channel.

The broker trims FY26–28 earnings forecasts by around -2% but expects growth to accelerate in FY27 as Luxury brands are reinvested in and US distribution stabilises.

Morgans maintains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $10.10 from $10.25.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $2.38
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

There is no change to Buy rating and $10 target on further inspection of FY25 results. UBS tweaks its EPS estimates by -0.5% for FY26 and 0.5% for FY27.

****

Released today, Treasury Wine Estates’ FY25 earnings (EBITS) of $770m were up 17% and in line with guidance, the UBS forecast, and consensus. Profit of $471m also met expectations. Management reiterated FY26 guidance.

In first impressions, the broker notes Penfolds delivered EBITS of $477m, up 13% with a 44.4% margin, while the Americas rose 34% to $309m and Premium Brands fell -28% to $55m.

Operating cash flow rose to $819m, capex fell to -$137m, and net debt increased slightly to $1.8bn.

FY26 guidance is unchanged, with Penfolds expected to grow low-to-mid double digits. The Americas delivered modest growth, notes the broker, and a California distributor change is set to reduce net sales revenue by -$50m with EBITS impact still to be determined.

The broker reports management plans up to $200m in share buybacks in FY26 and expects leverage to remain around 2.0 times.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $2.28
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's initial assessment is Ventia Services released a weak interim performance, but management also upgraded FY25 net profit guidance.

First half dps of 10.6cps (90% franked) equally missed the forecast for 10.8cps. Higher corporate costs and an underwhelming performance from the Telco business are blamed for the interim 'miss'.

Macquarie does note the guidance upgrade is underpinned by contract wins --driven by Telco-- and ongoing margin improvement. 

Outperform. Target $5.42.

Target price is $5.42 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.22
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.92, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of FY25 results for steel companies, UBS sees mixed outlook with near-term demand soft particularly in the US while 12-month EPS growth outlook is supported by elevated steel prices.

Specifically, the broker highlights S232 tariffs have left to an increase in US steel spreads to US$487/st now from US$315/st in February.

The broker's key pick is Bluescope Steel over Vulcan Steel and Sims.

For Vulcan Steel, the broker is forecasting NZ$110m underlying EBITDA in line with guidance midpoint. Commentary on whether sales remains a priority over profitability will be eyed.

Neutral. Target trimmed to $6.50 from $7.30 on earnings downgrade, partially offset by roll-forward.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.25
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Citi notes Westpac reported 3Q25 net profit after tax of $1.9bn, which beat both the broker's and consensus expectations by 12% and 14%, respectively, due to better revenue from Treasury & Markets, with costs in line.

Core NIM at 1.85% came in better than anticipated and above Citi's 1.76% estimate.

The analyst notes the market has taken the result well but cautions against assuming the revenue momentum will be maintained into 4Q25.

Sell rated.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: minus $5.4 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.14, suggesting downside of -19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Westpac reported 3Q25 net profit after tax of $1.98bn, up 13.5% on the prior quarter, with core NIM up 5bps to 1.85% from 2Q25 due to a lowering in liquid and trading assets, UBS notes. Credit impairment charge fell -5bps.

Relative to the $1.78bn quarterly result year-to-date, the broker highlights Westpac needs to achieve around $1.4bn to meet FY25 consensus earnings forecasts, suggesting consensus earnings upgrades of around 2.8% to 6.2% growth are likely after the 3Q trading update.

On balance, the update does not seem "too bad", according to UBS, with noise around NIM and hedging but underlying NIM up 5bps.

Commentary highlights institutional and business banking continues to be robust, maintaining the 1H25 trend.

Buy rated. Target $36.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: $2.1
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.14, suggesting downside of -19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans has updated its estimates across its Oil & Gas sector coverage following 2Q results and ahead of 1H releases.

The broker maintains a Neutral sector stance, noting spot Brent and JKM are trading only slightly below base-case ranges despite re-rated sector equities.

With market valuations recovering even as Brent prices soften, the broker believes much of the ‘easy money’ in the sector has already been made.

The analyst lowers the target for Woodside Energy by -$1.00 to $30.10 after modestly trimming opex assumptions following a solid 2Q, while keeping interim dividend estimate roughly steady at US$0.52 per share. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $26.78 Difference: $3.32
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.68, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi has raised its FY26 earnings forecasts due to the sooner than anticipated closing of the e2open acquisition, which was previously consolidated from 2H26, and an upgrade of 1% to the FY27 estimate on assumed higher subscription growth.

The stock's share price can be volatile around earnings, and no difference is expected for FY25 results, with uncertainty on the Cargowise revenue outlook.

Target raised to $134 from $127.40 on higher long-term margin assumptions. No change in Buy rating.

Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $114.28 Difference: $19.72
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources