Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

The highlight of a2 Milk Co's FY25 result announcement was its acquisition of Yashili NZ assets for -NZ$282m and sale of 75% holding in Mataura Valley Milk plant for NZ$100m and loss of -NZ$130m.

Bell Potter notes the company plans to return NZ$300m via special dividend once these transactions are completed. 

FY25 revenue of NZ$1.90bn beat the broker's forecast but underlying net profit was broadly in line. The Yashili acquisition is expected to contribute NZ$20m revenue in FY26 with an EBITDA loss of -NZ$30-35m, with breakeven estimated in FY27.

FY26 EBITDA guidance excluding the two deals is NZ$315-340m, higher than consensus, but net profit guidance including processing is -11% below.

The broker cut FY26 net profit forecast by -9% and FY27 by -1%. Target price unchanged at $7.85 as lower ROIC is offset by roll forward and reduced WACC.

Hold retained.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

a2 Milk Co saw accelerated revenue growth in the second half to 13.3% year on year, Macquarie notes, including record China formula share at 8.0%. Annualising second half sales suggests 5% FY26 year on year growth, making 7-9% guidance seem very deliverable in the broker's view.

a2's supply chain transactions de-risk the medium to long term growth strategy, market access and share, and offers fair incremental economics, Macquarie suggests.

While current multiples will lift with supply chain impacts, execution and momentum continues, the broker believes, and long term growth should also lift. Outperform retained, target rises to $8.70 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.47
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a2 Milk Co's FY25 result as solid but reckons the attention was more on the supply chain acquisition -- Yashili's Pokeno facility.

FY25 revenue was 1% ahead of expectations on outperformance in the Chinese infant milk formula (IMF) market, and the English-label formula growing well above the market. 

The Yashili acquisition could be transformative, the broker reckons, but sees high execution risk as the company has limited IMF manufacturing track record. The broker estimates it could generate NZ$24m EBITDA in FY28.

FY26 revenue forecast upgraded by 3.8% and FY27 by 4.2% following FY25 result. The acquisition and MVM divestment have not been factored into the forecasts.

Target rises to $7.50 from $6.60. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates A2M as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

a2 Milk Co delivered a strong FY25, assesses Morgans, with sales up 13.5%, earnings (EBITDA) up 17% and profit up 21%.

Growth accelerated in 2H25 as supply constraints eased, explain the analysts, lifting sales 16.7% and margins to 15.5%. Infant formula market share in China rose to 8.0%, with English Label outperforming China Label, while liquid milk and nutritional sales also grew strongly.

FY26 guidance was weaker than expected by the broker, with high single-digit sales growth and a 15-16% margin, reflecting the Yashili New Zealand acquisition.

While the transaction is initially EPS dilutive, the facility is expected to breakeven in FY27 and contribute positively in FY28, supporting long-term accretion and additional China Label registrations, explains Morgans.

The broker cuts its FY26-27 forecasts but lifts FY28 onwards, with double-digit accretion from FY29. A NZ$300m (circa NZ41cps) special dividend is expected in 1H27.

Morgans raises its valuation to $8.00 from $6.87 and upgrades to Hold from Sell.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett notes a2 Milk Co reported in-line FY25 earnings, with management pointing to “wider” earnings (EBITDA) margins in FY26.

The report suggests the major news has been the acquisition of the Pokeno infant manufacturing plant in the Waikato region for -NZ$282m from China Mengniu Dairy.

The analyst views the transaction positively, with scope to bring forth wider margins and market share advances from new products and better control over its supply chain. Pokeno will facilitate the development of premium products.

a2 Milk Co has also sold its loss-making Mataura Valley Milk for NZ$100m, which is also viewed as a positive outcome.

Ord Minnett has lowered its EPS estimates by -12.4% for FY26 and -6.5% for FY27 on the acquisition costs. The FY28 EPS forecast is raised by 5.9%.Target price lifts to $9.40 from $7.70. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $1.17
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Following a full review of a2 Milk Co's FY25 result, UBS cut FY26 EPS forecast by -18% and FY27 by -11% on initial losses from the Yashili NZ acquisition.

The broker's FY25 EBITDA forecast of NZ$302m comprises of 11% revenue growth from continuing operation vs guidance of high single digit, and margin of 15.5% at guidance mid-point.

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$9.95.

****

In an initial review of yesterday's FY25 results for a2 Milk Co, UBS noted revenue of NZ$1,902m (up 14% year-on-year) came in slightly ahead of the broker and consensus, with earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$274m in line.

Profit was NZ$203m and a NZ20c dividend was declared, while net cash rose to NZ$1,061m.

Infant formula sales of NZ$1,274m were slightly below the broker's forecast, offset by stronger liquid milk at NZ$346m. The earnings margin improved to 14.4%, with gross margin steady at 46% and marketing spend rising to -NZ$318m.

Operating cash flow was softer at NZ$201m.

FY26 guidance is for high single-digit revenue growth and a 15-16% earnings margin, ahead of consensus, with profit expected similar to FY25.

The net cost of -NZ$182m the acquisition of the Yashili New Zealand infant formula manufacturing plant and Mataura Valley Milk sale was below UBS’s -NZ$250m estimate.

UBS forecasts Yashili’s earnings (EBITDA) to breakeven in FY27, turn positive in FY28 with a2 Platinum in-sourcing and new China Label products. The transaction is expected to deliver a return on invested capital above 10% by FY29.

Current Price is $8.23. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AD8 as Underperform (5) -

After two downgrades and with expectations still resetting, Macquarie sees little evidence of a near-term recovery for Audinate Group.

Following FY25 results, the broker explains revenues remain largely non-recurring, the business continues to burn cash, and financial delivery in Video has been limited to date.

The group incurred a -$15m loss for FY25, around -90% below consensus, as weaker Video performance offset benefits from tax and interest income.

Medium-term growth has been rebased by management to two-to-three times market growth, reducing the five-year forward gross profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) midpoint by -7.7% to 9.75%.

Macquarie cuts its FY26-29 EPS forecasts heavily, by between -830% and -180%, reflecting weaker growth prospects and higher reinvestment needs. The broker lowers its target price by -$2.00 to $4.30 and retains an Underperform rating.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 48.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Audinate Group's FY25 revenue was in line with expectations and US$32.9m gross profit beat consensus by 6%.

The FY26 guidance was mixed as 13-15% gross profit growth implies a -4% miss vs consensus. The broker notes market is already priced for softer FY26 gross profit outlook but the guidance is still lower than expectations.

On the positive side, long-term incentives, while reset lower, still point to confidence in gross profit acceleration beyond FY27, the broker highlights.

Overweight. Target price $11. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $6.19
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 48.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AD8 as Hold, High Risk (3) -

Audinate Group's FY25 revenue was down -32% y/y reflecting transition year, but was in line with Shaw and Partners' forecast. Net profit missed the forecast but cash EBITDA was slightly higher.

The FY26 outlook, however, disappointed as total cash overheads, including opex, development and leases, are expected to increase to -$79m from -$63m.

The broker concludes FY26 will be a strategic investment year, and is forecasting a cash EBITDA loss of -$21.5m vs previous forecast of $2.3m profit

While cash isn't an issue, with the broker estimating FY26 will end with $60m cash, there are no catalysts for the stock as tariff uncertainty weighs and video segment lacks full disclosure.

Hold, High Risk. Target cut to $4.90 from $9.50.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.09
If AD8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 48.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AHL as Buy (1) -

Adrad's FY25 statutory EBITDA, including the discontinued NZ business, beat Bell Potter's forecast, driven by better performance in the heat transfer solutions unit.

The highlight was final dividend of 2.08c fully-franked, beating the broker's 1.43c estimate.

Commentary highlights the company didn't provide quantitative FY26 guidance but expressed confidence about improved performance on strong order book and rising data centre demand.

FY26 revenue forecast lifted by 3% and FY27 by 2%. EPS forecasts also upgraded for FY26-27. Buy. Target lifted to $1.10 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.44
If AHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Speculative Buy (1) -

AML3D's FY25 revenue missed Bell Potter's forecast and EBITDA loss was also more than estimated.

The broker is, however, not alarmed as it sees lower revenue recognition in 2H as a timing issue. The $9m backlog comprises of 49% of the broker's FY26 revenue forecast of $18.5m.

Outlook remains positive due to expectations of more US defence contracts. Minor changes to forecasts.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If AL3 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

AML3D's FY25 result showed a larger reported loss due to -$2.1m cost related to establishing the Ohio facility.

Shaw and Partners revised the FY26 revenue forecast, lowering it by -23.9% but lifted FY27 by 1.4%.

With a strong balance sheet, broadened pipeline, including defence, utilities and Europe market, and capacity expansion, the broker believes the company is positioned for accelerated scale-up.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Ampol's 1H25 Group EBITDA of $649m was 1% ahead of guidance and EBIT was in line. Dividend was a disappointment as 40c was lower than the broker's 47c estimate.

The result showed convenience retail unit performed well with modest EBIT growth but refining earnings collapsed.

The company achieved $30m of the FY25 $50m cost-out target in 1H. Overweight. Target price $30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $0.6
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.54, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's 1H2025 results were largely as expected, given pre-guidance for earnings (EBIT) and replacement cost of operating profit, according to Ord Minnett.

The company has offered more details on the EG Australia transaction around depreciation and financing charges, which are largely as expected.

Manbagement has confirmed the addition of 500 Ampol-branded service stations and convenience stores will be incremental to EPS growth by around 9% in FY27.

Ord Minnett believes the market has not fully accounted for the impact on earnings and the expected rise in the free cash flow yield to circa 11%.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -4.5% for 2025 and -5.1% for 2026. Buy rating maintained with a $36.50 target.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $29.40 Difference: $7.1
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.54, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Amcor has missed consensus earnings (EBIT) estimates four quarters in succession, with ongoing volume weakness, and notes the shares declined -11.9% on the results, with weaker FY26 guidance also impacting.

The latest 4Q25 result showed a -US$20m cost impact from North American beverages due to unusual freight and labour costs.

Earnings will be 2H-loaded for FY26 with easier comps and expectations of a ramp-up in cost synergies. Citi believes cost savings of -US$260m are on pace for FY26, with more upside to synergies if volumes continue to underperform.

Target set at $15 due to updated assumptions on volume weakness and forecasts.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.19 Difference: $1.81
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.02, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Austin Engineering reported accounting errors in its FY24 results from incorrect revenue recognition of truck body trays in its Chilean business. The impact is -$4.9m decline in FY24 revenue and FY25 revenue is now estimated to rise $8.3m.

FY25 EBIT is forecast to go up by $5.2m to $46m. The FY24 revised accounts will be published with the FY25 result on Aug 26.

Bell Potter is disappointed with this disclosure as FY24 results originally looked strong; it undermines trust in the reports.

That said, FY26-27 revenue and EBITDA forecasts are broadly unchanged following reset.

Buy. Target unchanged at 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.27
If ANG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

On first take, UBS views ARB Corp's FY25 result as a slight miss versus consensus but a “commendable” result given the challenging trading conditions.

Sales revenue grew 5%, which was in line, and earnings (EBITDA) fell -3% on the prior year. Export revenue grew 16%, while OEM and Australian aftermarket were flat on the prior year in terms of revenue growth.

Margins fell in 2H25, with cost-cutting offsetting the decline.

The analyst expects the market to focus on the acceleration of US growth, along with overall reasonable commentary around the Australian aftermarket trend in 2H25.

1H26 guidance is for a fall in OEM sales and a recovery in 2H26, with FY26 new vehicle sales expected to be the same as FY25.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.38 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.78, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATR as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Astron with a Speculative Buy rating and a 12-month target price of $1.60.

The company's Donald Rare Earth and Mineral Sands Project in Victoria is a globally significant resource, highlights the broker. As Phase 1 covers just 17% of the deposit, the analyst sees strong long-term growth potential.

The project will deliver zircon/titanium rich concentrate and a rare earth concentrate containing neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

Astron’s joint venture with US-listed Energy Fuels provides capital via an earn-in, processing expertise, and access to downstream US markets, explains the broker, materially reducing execution and offtake risks.

Key permits are in place, with financing, contractor pricing, and pre-production drilling advancing towards a targeted final investment decision (FID) in late 2025.

Morgans values Astron using a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow methodology, applying a -25% discount for funding and execution risks, ascribing $244m for its share of Phase 1.

In summary, the broker sees Astron as well-positioned to become a meaningful ex-China supplier of rare earths and mineral sands, supported by approvals, a strategic partner, and scale. 

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.9
If ATR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter downgraded Avita Medical to Sell from Hold, expecting the company will require more equity in the near term due to stagnant revenue growth.

The broker notes the company has delivered a string of poor quarterly results and guidance misses, resulting in dilutionary capital raise, continuing cash burn, and significant shareholder value destruction.

The Orbimed loan covenant required $10m minimum cash balance to be maintained but current revenue levels make this unlikely. The broker estimates reaching breakeven by 2Q26 will require a step-change in revenue trajectory which is not yet apparent.

Target cut to $1.50 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Target raised to $3.45 on further inspection of FY25 results, Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -8.9% for FY26 and -6.2% for FY27.

The key development for Aurizon is the potential sale of a minority stake in its network. To generate a re-rating of the stock, given the poor to cautious outlook, the analyst estimates a Network sale multiple of over 1.2 times is needed to secure upside.

Neutral rating retained.

***

Today, Aurizon Holdings reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $1,576m, in line with Citi’s expectations and guidance, though profit was slightly below due to higher depreciation and interest.

In first impressions, the broker notes Coal earnings of $527m were broadly in line, while Network earnings of $956m were around 2% ahead on cost control.

Bulk earnings missed expectation at $169m, around -4% below consensus, dragged by weaker grain and iron ore volumes and higher bad debts, explains the analyst.

FY26 guidance of $1,680-$1,750m is largely in line with consensus of $1,712m, supported by $10m in cost savings. Management expects Coal earnings will improve on stronger volumes.

Network ownership review remains underway, with a change in revenue recognition expected to smooth earnings and improve the asset’s appeal, while a $150m buyback was announced.

The broker highlights the Bulk division remains a concern, with the segment missing again despite a sequential 9% volume recovery in the fourth quarter.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.12
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Aurizon Holdings' FY25 result was pre-guided and showed group net profit falling short of Morgan Stanley's forecast by -2% and the consensus by -4%.

Group EBITDA was stable but masked division variances. Network EBITDA was up 3% y/y as lower energy and fuel costs offset flat revenue, while coal EBITDA was flat y/y as higher operating costs offset yield improvement.

Bulk EBITDA was down -26% y/y but outlook is positive on new contract wins in minerals and iron ore.

FY25 guidance underlying EBITDA guidance of $1.68-1.75bn compares with the broker's $1.73bn estimate.

Underweight. Target price $3.03. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Aurizon Holdings' FY25 result was messy and disappointing, according to Morgans, with FY26 guidance showing limited underlying growth.

FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1,680-$1,750m implies only 2-5% growth after adjusting for FY25 provisions, explains the analyst. It's thought a new $150m buyback and a Network ownership review partly offset the weaker outlook.

The broker notes FY26 dividend guidance of 19-20c represents a 5.7-6.0% yield, consistent with an 80% payout ratio, implying strong profit growth year-on-year.

Network remains the key asset, highlights Morgans, with FY25 earnings (EBITDA) up 3% and expected to grow again in FY26, supported by higher allowable revenue.

The broker highlights coal earnings are expected to be only marginally higher in FY26, with contract losses and customer insolvencies weighing on future volumes.

Bulk earnings declined -26% in FY25 due to doubtful debt provisions, with guidance for improvement in FY26 from higher grain volumes, though structural issues remain, cautions the broker.

Containerised freight remains loss-making, and breakeven is expected to be challenging.

Morgans cuts its forecasts to align with FY26 guidance, lowers its target price to $2.89 from $2.94, and downgrades its rating to Trim from Hold.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Aurizon Holdings has guided to slightly higher than consensus expectations for FY26 earnings, with FY25 operating earnings (EBITDA) in line with guidance from late June, Ord Minnett notes.

The analyst points to a notably robust coal performance in FY25 against a weak backdrop of weather issues in Qld.

Cost savings of -$60m are expected for FY26 from a reduction in headcount of -200 people.

Ord Minnett lowers its EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 by -7.3% and -9.1%, with FY26 unchanged.

Hold rating and $3.10 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings' FY25 EBITDA was pre-released and was in line with expectations. Normalised EPS and DPS met UBS' forecast but slightly missed the consensus.

The company announced a new buyback program of $150m vs the broker's expectation of $80m.

FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $1.68-1.75bn was towards the lower end of the broker's $1.692bn forecast. The broker considered whether it is too conservative but reckons growing EBITDA by $140m to guidance midpoint is a tough task.

DPS yield is seen as a floor, but valuation support is considered to be limited at current levels. The broker notes strategic optionality around Network/capital structure is a potential swing factor, but risks remain non-coal diversification takes longer to deliver.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.25.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Buy (1) -

BETR Entertainment’s valuation has been updated by Morgans to incorporate its sizeable minority stake in PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)), which is now treated as a non-operating financial asset recognised in equity value.

The broker notes the inclusion of the PointsBet stake increases transparency around equity value and lifts valuation. Operating forecasts for FY25-26 remain unchanged, with the FY25 result due on August 28.

The analyst remains positive on BETR’s earnings outlook, citing a clear path to profitability, scalable technology, cost leverage, and strong execution of acquisitions.

Morgans raises its target price to 42c from 38c and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.12
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

At first glance by Macquarie, today's BHP Group’s FY25 result was broadly in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus, with revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and profit within 1% of forecasts.

A re-prioritisation of capital and a higher net debt range are viewed by Macquarie as positives, as they provide flexibility and support the potential for higher shareholder returns in the future.

Free cash flow (FCF) of US$5.3bn was a 28% beat against the analyst's estimate, driven by lower capex (-29%) and stronger operating cash flow, while net debt of US$12.9bn also beat estimates.

The final dividend of US60c was also an 18% beat, reflecting a 60% payout ratio.

The broker notes copper earnings were 10% ahead of consensus, while iron ore was broadly in line, offset by weaker coal (-25%) and other divisions (-37%).

Unit costs were better across key operations, including WA Iron Ore, Queensland Coal, Escondida and Spence, while capex guidance was unchanged for FY26-27 at -US$11bn, but cut by -US$1bn to circa -US$10bn for FY28-30.

BHP has deferred its Olympic Dam smelter expansion by a year, pushed most decarbonisation spending into the next decade, and delayed Jansen Stage 2. 

Outperform rating. Target $41.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $41.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.07, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Citi downgrades its EPS estimates by -17% for FY26 and FY27 due to higher cost assumptions for Australian steel products ex-raw materials, and North Star is down on higher conversion costs.

The analyst believes the dividend yield on the stock will remain constrained due to high capex, while China steel exports are expected to remain elevated, which will push down domestic steel pricing.

The target price is lowered to $23, with a Neutral rating retained.

***

BlueScope Steel announced 2H25 earnings (EBIT), which were at the upper end of guidance but slightly lower than Citi's and consensus expectations at first peek. Underlying net profit after tax missed consensus estimate by -11%.

Net debt came in at $28m versus consensus at $72m, and cost savings of -$130m were achieved over the year, with an additional -$70m flagged for FY26 to achieve the -$200m target.

BlueScope Properties is discontinuing investment in new projects. Management's 1H26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance stands at $550m-$620m, including lagged spreads, US mini-mill benchmark spreads of around US$480/t, up US$60/t on 2H25, and Asian benchmark spreads of circa US$200/t, flat on 2H25.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel delivered FY25 results with second-half outcomes at the top end of guidance, though the FY26 outlook was weaker than Macquarie expected.

Cost savings remain a highlight for the broker, with -$130m realised in FY25 and a -$200m target for FY26, while the balance sheet is solid.

The analyst notes strength at North Star from spread expansion and improving US demand, while in Australia Colorbond volumes rose 5% year-on-year and domestic despatches were up 8%.

A -$439m impairment in US coated capacity was a negative, while 1H FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $550-620m came in below the broker’s forecasts.

Macquarie cuts its FY26-28 EPS forecasts by -32%, -25% and -15%, respectively, reflecting delayed Australian Steel Products cost-out benefits and softer US price realisation.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $25.45 from $29.05 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: $1.97
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes BlueScope Steel's FY25 revenue was 1% ahead of consensus and EBIT missed by -3. EBIT for 2H fell short of consensus by -6% but came at the top end of guidance.

Guidance for 1H26 EBITA of $550-620m was -5% below consensus at the midpoint.

The broker reckons commentary on Australia construction and US spreads were more positive, and the long-term case is supported by cost-out and growth targets.

However, in the near-term, the $439m North American unit impairment is a headwind.

Equal-weight. Target price $24. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: $0.52
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel missed 2H25 earnings, according to Ord Minnett, due to higher Australasian costs and a write-down in the value of its US-based coil coatings business, which was acquired for $439m in 2022.

Management’s 1H26 guidance missed expectations by -5%, with ongoing uncertainty around US demand and the impact of tariffs, though with a more upbeat outlook for Australian residential construction.

Ord Minnett has lowered its EPS forecasts by -20.9% for FY26 and -11.7% for FY27. Buy rating maintained, with forecast stronger cash flow from FY27 which could underpin capital management of around $400m per annum.

Target price lowered to $27 from $29.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: $3.52
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

After a detailed analysis of the FY25 result, UBS cut BlueScope Steel's FY26 EPS forecast by -4%.

The broker reckons tailwinds from S232 tariffs reflected in rise in steel spreads provide offset to demand headwinds in the short term.

The broker acknowledges downside risk to 1H25 spread assumption, but also thinks the steel manufacturer will benefit from longer contracts struck at the peak of recent spread cycle.

Target cut to $26.50. Buy retained.

Earlier in a first read, the broker noted the following:

BlueScope Steel's 2H25 EBIT missed its forecast and the consensus by -6%, though after stripping out NZ, the result was in line.

The biggest disappointment was EBIT on Australian steel products which came in at $130m vs the broker's $166m forecast. The write-down in the buildings and coated products unit was also disappointing, highlighting slow path to meaningful earnings contribution.

Guidance for 1H26 EBIT was in line with the broker's forecast but -5% below consensus, and, as the broker explains, it relies on pick up in US spreads in the December quarter. The broker is assuming US$40/st above spot.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: $3.02
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CEN as Outperform (1) -

Contact Energy’s FY25 result was in line with Macquarie’s expectations, with profit supported by steady earnings (EBITDA) and a final dividend consistent with guidance.

FY26 guidance, including Manawa, was -5% below the broker’s forecast but aligned with consensus.

The broker notes July trading showed earnings (EBITDA) up 20% year-on-year, suggesting conservative FY26 guidance pricing assumptions.

Net debt ended FY25 below both consensus and the analyst's estimate, while leverage is expected to fall under S&P’s BBB threshold by FY27.

Dividend guidance for FY26 and FY27 remains at NZ40c and NZ41-42c, respectively, with imputation higher than the broker assumed.

Macquarie cuts its EPS forecasts by -1% to -3% and lowers its target to NZ$11.35 from NZ$11.53. Unchanged Outperform rating.

Current Price is $8.15. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger reported FY25 growth in net profit after tax of 9% on the prior year, which met Citi's expectations at first glance as well as consensus.

Notably, annuity sales were down slightly to $5.18bn, including a $619m group lifetime policy win. The overall annuity book advanced 4.9% over the prior year compared to 5.6% in FY24.

Life was slightly lower than anticipated, and funds management came in better than expected.

Management's FY26 guidance at $455m-$495m was in line with the analyst's forecast at the midpoint. Normalised EPS FY26 guidance is 66c-72c versus Citi's 68.7c estimate and consensus at 69.2c. Dividend of 15c was in line.

The analyst notes the lack of a policyholder and shareholder investment split may create some minor “annoyance” in the market.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.25 Difference: $0.95
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.62, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

In an early assessment, today's FY25 result by Challenger was weaker than expected by Macquarie, with FY26 profit guidance at $455-495m sitting slightly below both broker and consensus forecasts.

The final dividend was around 1c above consensus, but the absence of detail on excess capital returns and Japanese distribution arrangements weighs on sentiment, suggests the broker.

The analyst highlights Life book growth of 3.6% with total sales of $2.3bn, while MS Primary sales from Japan rose 39% year-on-year to $984m, representing 19% of fixed-term sales and doubling the minimum annual target.

Funds management earnings of $75m beat the consensus forecast, though average funds under management (FUM) of $118.4bn missed the broker's expectation.

Capital strength was maintained with a prescribed Capital Amount (PCA) ratio of 1.6 times, near the top of the target range. Macquarie sees limited near-term catalysts despite expecting buybacks and further Japanese sales partnerships.

Outperform. Target $9.30.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.25 Difference: $1.05
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.62, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Comet Ridge ended the June quarter with $13.3m cash, and in May extended the $9.5m loan facility to June 2027.

The company extended gas sales agreement with CleanCo Queensland to Mar 2026, contingent on JV financing and pipeline and treatment agreements.

FEED design for the Mahalo joint venture is progressing well and the company also announced additional 2P and 3P reserves to its 100% owned Maholo East project.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 21c.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.07
If COI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi views Charter Hall Retail REIT as having defensive underlying growth from convenience retail assets, which are secured by high occupancy, robust like-for-like growth, and advancing leasing spreads.

The analyst also expects cap rates will decline due to strong institutional demand for convenience store assets.

Target price is raised to $4.50 from $4.20. Buy rating retained.

****

On first glance, Citi analysts comment Charter Hall Retail REIT announced a robust FY25 result which was underpinned by the convenience retail portfolio.

FY26 funds from operations guidance of 26.3c was basically in line with both consensus and the analyst's forecast, while guided DPS of 25.4c is slightly above consensus.

Portfolio occupancy came in at 98.9% and the NTA rose 2.9% to $4.64. Balance sheet gearing of 27.1% is viewed as "prudent" and the REIT has raised $1.75bn of equity and exchanged on an additional $504m of newly sourced acquisitions.

Moving annual turnover growth of 3.6% with sales productivity of $11,356psqm and average gross rent of $1,301psqm.

The market is expected to like the result, with the REIT trading at a discount of around -12% to NTA.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.44
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT's FY25 operating earnings per share declined -7.3%, in line with Macquarie and guidance. FY26 guidance of 3.5% year on year OEPS growth and 2.8% dividend growth is -2% below Macquarie.

The new Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund will acquire from the REIT four 100%-owned assets plus other 49.9% investments and the REIT will retain a 22% stake in the new fund.

The net proceeds will reduce gearing, and Macquarie sees the benefits of diversification and scale.

Shares in Charter Hall Retail REIT have rallied 27% in 2025 to date but a 6.2% dividend yield and three-year CAGR of 3.9% are seen providing valuation support, leading Macquarie to upgrade to Neutral from Underperform. Target rises to $3.91 from $3.51.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Charter Hall Retail REIT's FY25 operating EPS and FY26 were largely in line with expectations. 

One key takeaway was contribution from HPI acquisition in 2H25 implied $21m annualised vs the broker $22m forecast, and expected to be higher in FY26.

The broker also believes Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund (CCRF) will increasingly be a key growth driver vs core portfolio.

Further upside will likely need balance sheet acquisitions, according to the broker, but CCRF may crowd the REIT out of some deals.

Neutral. Target rises to $4.12 from $3.95 based on property yield of 6%.

Target price is $4.12 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.06
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Today's FY25 result by CSL showed profit (NPATA) 2% ahead of Macquarie and consensus, with revenue and earnings (EBIT) slightly below expectations.

Lower tax and interest supported the profit outcome, notes the broker (in an early assessment) while Behring underperformed on weaker immunoglobulin revenue.

Seqirus delivered revenue growth offset by margin pressure, and Vifor exceeded expectations on both revenue and margins, explains the analyst.

The broker notes FY26 constant currency guidance of 4-5% revenue growth and NPATA of US$3.45-3.55bn, implying 7-10% year-on-year growth. The analyst had forecast near the midpoint at US$3.51bn.

Management expects a US$60m currency tailwind if current rates hold.

The company announced plans for a potential Seqirus demerger by FY26-end, a $750m buyback in FY26, and a cost-out program targeting US$500-550m annual savings by FY28, mostly delivered in FY27.

Outperform rating. Target $347.50

Target price is $347.50 Current Price is $271.32 Difference: $76.18
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $316.21, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS sees the CSL FY25 net profit after tax beat as “low quality”, underpinned by Seqirus sales with lower R&D and tax.

Revenue for FY25 grew 5%, below the analyst's forecast by -2% and a miss on consensus by -1%. Underlying gross margin rose 33bps to 54.3%, which beat UBS' forecast by 14bps and was 3bps above consensus. Net profit after tax, up 11%, was 2% above expectations.

Behring sales rose 5%, a miss; Vifor sales rose 6%, a slight beat; and Seqirus sales rose 2%, a beat above both broker and consensus estimates.

Adjusted Behring gross margin missed, and adjusted Seqirus gross margin also missed.

Management's FY26 constant currency net profit after tax guidance is 7%-10% growth, at US$3.45bn to US$3.55bn, on revenue growth of 4%-5%, which excludes any tariff impacts.

The company announced R&D restructuring with one-off costs of -US$700m to -US$770m for FY26/FY27, with cost savings of -US$500m to -US$550m in three years, alongside a demerger of Seqirus and the restart of a share buyback at US$750m in FY26.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $271.32 Difference: $38.68
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $316.21, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGT as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Digico Infrastructure REIT's FY25 FFO/share missed its forecast by -25% and the consensus by -7%. 

The REIT didn't provide an explicit FY26 guidance but noted EBITDA growth will depend on contract commencements, renewals, and remixing Australia portfolio. WACD improvement of 100bps is expected once the Chicago data centre stabilises.

In the case of Sydney (SYD1) data centre, the REIT is continuing to explore capital partners which could provide balance sheet flexibility.

The broker trimmed FY26-28 FFO/share forecasts by -4% to -3%.

Hold. Target falls to $3.00 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.55
If DGT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DGT as Outperform (1) -

Digico Infrastructure REIT's FY25 earnings were 6% above Macquarie and 2% above prospectus. No FY26 guidance was provided given the timing of contract commencements.

Digico's SYD1 data centre has been certified by the government as a Certified Strategic hosting provider of data centre services.

Digico noted sentiment has increased, including discussions with a multinational technology provider and a government customer contemplating a return. 

Engagement at Australian co-location assets continue and the REIT is exploring a sell-down of US operating assets to capital partners. 

There is asset backing, Macquarie notes, with the stock trading at a -28% discount to NTA. Higher costs lead to a target cut to $3.90 from $4.35, Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $1.15
If DGT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DGT as Buy (1) -

Digico Infrastructure REIT's FY25 result fell short of market expectations, with limited quantitative guidance for FY26, observes Morgans.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $99m were slightly ahead of prospectus forecasts, but funds from operations (FFO) of $39.1m missed both consensus at $43.7m and the broker’s forecast of $53m due to higher interest costs.

The analyst notes management expects to add 6MW of new capacity at SYD1 by June 2026, which could lift earnings (EBITDA) more than 20% once billing commences, though investors are waiting for tangible leasing progress.

Vacancy rose to 11MW from 9MW, partly offset by 2.6MW of renewals at an 8.2% premium, and a 9MW expansion at SYD1 is underway with delivery expected in the fourth quarter of FY26.

The broker revises its forecasts for FFO by -8% in FY26, 3% in FY27, and 7% in FY28. Target falls to $4.85 from $5.10. Buy.

Despite a payout ratio of 90-100% placing pressure on distributions, the broker still sees scope for a 20c payout.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $2.1
If DGT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

On further inspection of FY25 results, Citi lifts its EPS estimates for GPT Group by 0.7% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026.

Buy rating unchanged, with the analyst optimistic on the group’s advancing earnings as its funds management strategy continues. Target raised to $6 from $5.

***

On first take, GPT Group's 1H25 result was robust across operations and funds management execution according to Citi, with FY25 guidance lifted to the upper end of the range.

Management expects FY25 funds from operations to be no less than 33.2c per share, which sits marginally above the analyst and consensus forecasts and suggests no less than 3% growth on 2024.

First half funds from operations grew 4.4%, which was a beat, and dividend of 12c was flat on the prior period. NTA lifted to $5.31 from $5.27, with the share price trading at a discount of around -1%. Assets under management came in at $36.6bn and net gearing rose to 30.7%.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.63
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

GPT Group's first half 2025 funds from operations were up 4.4% year on year and 4.5% ahead of consensus. 2025 guidance is upgraded to FFO growth equal to or greater than 3%. Dividend guidance is unchanged at 24cps.

The first half included a contribution from trading profits which is not anticipated to recur in the second, Macquarie notes.

Commentary stipulates the loss of earnings will be partially offset by continued strong income growth and the first full period contribution from assumption of retail property management rights.

Management suggested the focus has shifted to execution following a period of refocusing resources to align with strategy. 

Execution of strategy offers upside potential to valuation in the medium to long term, but on a 21.5% year to date rally, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target falls to $5.29 from $5.36.

Target price is $5.29 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses GPT Group's 1H25 result as a good one, with modest upward revisions expected to consensus EPS.

Guidance for FY25 FFO was lifted but based on the strong 1H FFO of 16.8c, the broker wonders if it is conservative, given it points to -2.4% fall vs 1H.

DPS guidance was unchanged and probably explained by flat AFFO once higher capex and leasing are factored in. Absence of new external capital initiatives makes the growth strategy appear subdued.

Overweight. Target price $5.67. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.67 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.3
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

Following a full review of GPT Group's 1H25 result, UBS lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 1.3% and FY26 by 0.4%.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $5.40.

Earlier the broker wrote:

GPT Group reported first half 2025 funds from operations (FFO) of $322.6m, ahead of UBS’s $310.7m forecast and consensus of $309.3m, with funds from operations (FFO) of 16.8cpu and a 12c dividend.

FY25 FFO guidance was lifted to at least 33.2cpu from 32.5-33.1cpu, with a 24c dividend maintained.

In first impressions, the broker notes the beat was driven by trading profits of $13.9m versus the analysts' $6m forecast. Office also delivered strong outcomes with like-for-like net property income up 6.5%, leasing spreads of 7.6%, and incentives steady at 35%.

Retail was slightly softer, note the analysts, while logistics grew 5% with occupancy at 99.5% and leasing spreads of 37%.

The broker highlights gearing of 30.7% with cost of debt rising to 5.4%, and net tangible assets (NTA) of $5.31. Hedging of 75% through FY26 remains solid, though higher hedge rates from the second half reduce exposure to interest rate cuts.

Neutral rating. Target $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.03
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GWA as Outperform (1) -

GWA Group’s FY25 earnings (EBIT) of $76.3m were below Macquarie’s $78.7m estimate due to softer revenue.

Commentary highlights profitability was supported by good execution on customer, cost and cash outcomes, with dividends and the buyback providing further support.

The broker notes management is executing well through challenging markets, with the Win the Plumber strategy gaining traction and efficiencies improving.

Market conditions remain mixed, highlights the analyst, with repair and renovation subdued, commercial uneven, and new residential expected to improve in late FY26.

Macquarie cuts its FY26-28 EPS forecasts by -6.2%, -3.6% and -1.5% respectively, while lifting near-term margins on better cost outcomes. Macquarie lowers its target price to $3.05 from $3.15 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.3
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as No Rating (-1) -

Today, HMC Capital reported FY25 pre-tax operating EPS of 56cpu, -15% below consensus, due to a Digico Infrastructure REIT ((DGT)) impairment and higher staff retention costs, explains Macquarie.

In an early take, the analyst explains funds under management (FUM) grew 47% year-on-year to $18.7bn, supported by additions in digital infrastructure, private credit and the energy transition.

The broker notes FY26 pre-tax operating EPS guidance of at least 40cpu is slightly below consensus of 43cpu.

Management's dividend guidance is flat at 12cpu, reflecting the strategy to reinvest into growth, explains Macquarie.

The broker remains restricted on research (no target or rating) but highlights the REIT's $50bn medium-term FUM target and progress across private credit, energy transition, real estate, private equity and digital infrastructure.

Current Price is $3.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 85.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Neutral (3) -

Judo Capital reported FY25 profit before tax which met Citi's forecast but missed consensus by -2%.

Given the recent guidance, the announcement was “low risk,” with prior FY26 profit before tax guidance of 50% restated to $180m-$190m, with consensus already at $186.7m, and guided items met expectations.

Bad and doubtful debts were slightly higher than anticipated, with lower costs offsetting.

Citi believes the market will like the additional FY26 guidance details to support the growth trajectory for Judo and evidence of operating leverage feeding through.

Overall, an in-line result at first inspection.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's weaker FY26 earnings outlook was as expected and already discounted in consensus, Citi analysts comment, along with the ongoing downsizing and simplification of the group.

Citi expects -$2bn of non-core sales in FY26, with the outlook improving as the property cycle turns.

The analyst points to more clarity around the medium-term strategy as the reason for the positive share price reaction to FY25 results, including investment of circa 8%-10% of annual FUM growth rate and boosting earnings (EBITDA) margins to 50% from circa 40%.

Management also has a $10bn target for project wins in FY26 and circa $4bn of new development per annum from FY27.

Construction is aiming to grow to over $5bn of annual revenue by FY30 versus $3bn in FY25, with a rise in margin to 3%-4% from 1% in FY25.

Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -7.8% for FY26 and -7.9% for FY27.

Target price slips to $6.70 from $6.80. Buy rating retained, and the stock continues to trade at a discount of -10% to June 2025 NTA of $6.55.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $0.78
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) -

Lendlease Group delivered FY25 operating EPS of 55.9c, in line with guidance, with core segment earnings (EBITDA) up 50% year-on-year to $662m.

Investments, Development, and Construction (IDC) achieved a 13.6% return on equity (ROI), ahead of the group’s cost of equity, highlights the analyst. Improved development and investment earnings were partly offset by weaker construction.

The broker highlights strong execution on cost savings, with corporate costs down -67% year-on-year and -$141m saved against a -$125m target.

A further -$50m of run-rate savings are targeted by FY26. Management's medium-term divisional goals also include double-digit equity returns, funds under management (FUM) growth of 8-10% per annum, and development origination of around $4bn annually from FY27.

Gearing was 26.6% due to delayed transactions but is expected to fall with $2bn of capital recycling and settlement inflows, explains the analyst, enabling up to a $500m buyback.

Macquarie lifts its FY26 EPS forecast by 9.4% but cuts FY27 and FY28 forecasts by -5.3% and -6.4%, respectively, on lower investment earnings and higher interest.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $6.74 from $7.23. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $0.82
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Lendlease Group's FY25 result as broadly in line, with little change expected to consensus EPS for the next 12 months.

The key positive was management's execution of simplification strategy, with cost savings on or ahead of target. On the flipside, gearing is high and some asset sales are running behind schedule.

The broker reckons FY26 guidance for only part of the business suggests Capital Release Unit may be loss-making, given transaction values remain conditional. On the positive side, the 28-34c guidance for IDC is in line with the 32c forecast for the group for FY26.

Equal-weight. Target $7.12. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: $1.2
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Lendlease Group missed its forecast and the consensus on FY25 operating EPS but the difference was mainly made up of higher tax.

FY25 guidance for the core operating business of 28-34c compares with the broker's group forecast of 37c, and doesn't include gain/loss from asset sales targeted in FY26. The broker considers FY26 as a transition year, especially for development.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -6% and for FY27 by -8% on revised timing of asset sales, $500m buyback assumed over FY26-27 (only FY26 earlier), and weaker development and investment outlook.

The broker expects gearing to drop to high-teens in FY26 from 27% now but the 15% target to be reached only in 1H28.

Neutral. Target cut to $5.90 from $6.05.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Citi, at first take, views the Monadelphous Group FY25 result as “solid,” with revenue up 4%, which is better than expected and 3% above consensus.

Engineering & Construction revenue beat Maintenance & Industrial Services, but both were better than anticipated by 6% and 3%, respectively. Underlying earnings (EBITDA) were better than the analyst’s forecast but in line with consensus.

Secured work balances came in above 1H25 levels at $2.5bn versus $1.5bn in 1H25. A dividend of 72c was 3%-4% better than expected.

Management offered optimistic commentary, the analyst states, and notes the company is “positioned for growth in FY26.”

Citi points to a focus on growth in the energy sector, including energy transition opportunities. Shares are expected to react positively given the outlook and good result.

Target price is $19.95 Current Price is $20.26 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.16, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank delivered a solid third quarter update, Macquarie suggests, with a 4bps net interest margin uplift, supported by replicating portfolio tailwinds and stable lending and deposit trends.

Credit quality nevertheless continues to lag peers, with non-performing loans increasing, however NAB called out some early signs of stablisation. 

Importantly, Macquarie notes, while NAB's bad debt charge of 13bps was above peers, it was below the first quarter's 14bps.

The capital position was slightly below expectations, strengthening the broker's conviction of the dividend to be cut, anticipated in the first half FY27.

Amidst headwinds for sector competition and further impacts from rate cuts, trading at a -6% discount to Westpac ((WBC)) and 13% premium to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), Macquarie believes relative valuation is appropriate, and the stock remains the sector preferred pick, albeit with a Neutral rating.

Target rises to $35.50 from $35.00.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $40.23 Difference: minus $4.73 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.74, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank's 3Q25 revenue beat Morgan Stanley's forecast by 3% due to margin expansion of 8bps.

The broker reckons the headline margin saw the benefit of markets and treasury, and lower liquidity, and underlying margin was up 4bps. This was due to replicating portfolio benefit, and pricing and mix benefits in both loans and deposits.

While the broker expects margin to decline in 4Q, it still suggests business loan competition is not a risk for margin. Update on the expense side was disappointing with -$130m cost related to payroll review expected in FY25 results.

The broker is estimating an additional -$170m cost in FY26 related to the payroll review. EPS forecasts lifted by 3% or FY25 and 6% for FY26 on better-than-expected revenue trends.

Target rises to $39.80 from $35.40. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $40.23 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.74, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Sell (5) -

National Australia Bank reported third quarter 2025 cash earnings of around $1.77bn, down -1% from the first half average but broadly in line with Morgans and consensus.

Revenue grew 3% and net interest income rose 5% to $4.4bn, with the net interest margin (NIM) up 8bps, a meaningful positive surprise against expectations of a -3bps fall, suggests the analyst.

The broker notes underlying profit grew 2%, above flat expectations, but was offset by higher credit impairment charges of -$254m, up 46% quarter-on-quarter.

Costs worsened by -3%, with full-year operating expense growth now guided to 4.5%, including -$130m for payroll issues.

The CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 12.14%, slightly above expectations, though the broker now targets 11.9% by year-end due to higher risk-weighted assets.

The broker raises its FY26 and FY27 forecasts by 2% and 3%, respectively, on stronger NIM, now expecting earnings per share growth of around 3% a year across FY25-27.

Morgans raises its target price to $31.15 from $28.01 and retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $31.15 Current Price is $40.23 Difference: minus $9.08 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.74, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Lighten (4) -

National Australia Bank reported good revenue growth for the June quarter, which boosted cash earnings above Ord Minnett's forecast for 2H25.

Net interest margin lifted 8bps in the quarter to 1.78% on the analyst's estimate. Operating expenses growth guidance for FY25 at 4.5% was a negative versus previous guidance of below 4.5% growth.

The bank will also take a -$130m charge in 2H to remediate underpaid staff. Non-performing loans rose 5bps to 1.54% from the prior quarter, which met expectations.

Ord Minnett has lifted its EPS forecasts by 1.1% for FY25 and 4.4% for FY26. Lighten rating retained due to the elevated valuation. Target raised to $34 from $33.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $40.23 Difference: minus $6.23 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.74, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Hold (3) -

New Hope's 4Q25 saleable production and sales missed Bell Potter's forecasts due to weather-related rail and port disruptions. Average realised sales price was down -10% q/q despite a 9% rise in the benchmark coal index.

The broker sees logistics as the main medium-term issue with adverse weather at the Newcastle port causing shipping queues, sales delays and subsequently inventory build-up.

At New Acland rail capacity constraints from Brisbane’s Cross River Rail Project are expected to impact movement and sales until 2029.

FY25 EPS forecast trimmed by -3% and FY26 by a larger -22%. Hold. Target cut to $4.10 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

New Hope’s realised price achieved for its July quarter came in below the prior quarter by -11% to US$131/t, which resulted in a fall in earnings (EBITDA) to $93m, down -40%, Citi notes.

Saleable coal rose 18% on the prior year to 10.7mt, at the bottom of guidance, with FY25 earnings (EBITDA) at $766m.

Bengalla sales were impacted by weather and rail/logistics, while the Acland Stage 3 ramp was ongoing, underpinning Qld sales up 27% on the prior quarter to 0.93mt.

FY25 earnings fell -16% due to lower realised prices and sales, offset by lower costs.

Citi lowers its EPS estimates by -11.8% for FY25 and -19.2% for FY26. Target lifts to $4.25 from $3.85. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

New Hope's FY25 result showed weaker run-of-mine (ROM) production (-6%), saleable production (-13%) and sales (-19%) versus consensus, due to heavy rain in NSW, explains Macquarie.

Earnings (EBITDA) missed the consensus estimate by -39% but were 72% ahead of Macquarie’s forecast, while cash of $0.7bn was also above the broker’s estimate.

The analyst notes stronger output from New Acland, with production and sales ahead of consensus, and management investing in buffer capacity to improve logistics.

At Bengalla, wet weather reduced production by -0.5mt, with Macquarie trimming its long-run production outlook by -3% to 10.5mtpa.

Buyback activity slowed, with only $9m of the $100m program spent at an average price of $3.60, well below the prevailing share price.

Macquarie lifts its FY25 EPS forecast by 9% and cuts FY26-30 EPS forecasts by around -2%.

The broker's target price rises to $4.00 from $3.90 on the stronger cash balance but Macquarie retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

oOh!media reported first half profit up 46% year on year, albeit -2% below consensus despite better revenues (up 17%), with the drop impacted by a lower gross margin and higher operating costs, Macquarie notes.

Macquarie has upgraded forecasts in 2026 and beyond, with higher revenue assumptions, gross margins stabilising and costs growth at around 4% annually, excluding Auckland Transport impacts.

The broker understands oOh!media does not have any major near-term contract renewal risks, and with 50% of revenues extending to 2029-plus. As to possible new wins, Yarra Trams was called out, which has been with JC Decaux since November 2017.

Valuation looks compelling, Macquarie suggests, on an 11x twelve-month forward PE versus 14x long-run average. Outperform and $2.00 target retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.41
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OML as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes oOh!media's 1H25 revenue was 3% ahead of consensus but EBITDA missed by -4.5%. The share price fall following the earnings miss has made the stock attractive in the broker's view.

The broker is relying on its channel checks which suggests the slowdown in ad growth expected in 2H is cyclical. It, therefore, expects the company to continue winning share from TV/radio ad budgets.

The broker is highlighting its 3-year EPS compounded annual growth rate forecast of 16% growth, seeing earnings upside risk and potential for this stock to re-rate.

Target lifted to $2.00 from $1.70. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.41
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OML as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the share price fall of -10% post 1H2025 results reflects an earnings miss of -2% and a notable increase in capex guidance to -$53m to -$63m from - $45m to -$55m, alongside moderating revenue growth to 5% in 3Q from 17% in 1H2025.

The earnings miss on better revenue infers margin pressure, with -$13.5m paid out to ad agencies as part of incentive schemes.

This is viewed as one-off. Buy rating and $2 target retained.

****

In a snapshot of oOh!media's 1H25 result, UBS notes strong revenues were offset by lower-than-expected gross profit margins, leading to -2% miss on EBITDA vs consensus.

On the positive side, 3Q25 revenue is tracking 5% y/y on stronger growth expectation in August/September. Outdoor industry is expected to grow mid-high single digits in 2H vs consensus for 6% revenue growth.

Gross margin is guided at 44%, in line with consensus, and implies strong 2H margin recovery. The broker sees upside to consensus revenue forecasts, but confidence in margin recovery is seen as key.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.41
If OML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Hold (3) -

Pro Medicus reported better-than-expected FY25 results, with 2H25 margin of 76% versus Ord Minnett's forecast of 74%.

The analyst liked the addition of a digital pathology platform into its Visage software, which is considered a good strategy as it assists in increasing the company's competitive position versus rivals and peers.

Pro Medicus estimates around 5%-7% of the US healthcare market uses digital pathology systems.

Ord Minnett has lowered its EPS forecasts by -4.3% and -3.9% for FY26 and FY27, respectively, due to lower examination volume assumptions in 2H25. The downgraded earnings still reflect nearly 40% EPS growth from FY25 to FY28 annually.

Hold rating retained, with $305 target unchanged.

Target price is $305.00 Current Price is $317.72 Difference: minus $12.72 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Region Group reported in-line FY25 funds from operations of 15.5c per share, meeting Citi and consensus expectations. FY26 guidance was also in line at funds from operations of 15.9c per share, or growth of 2.6%.

The group registered a decline in cap rate by -10bps since June 2024 to 5.97%, which underpinned a rise in property valuations by $71.7m. Specialty rent per sqm advanced to $919, growth of 5% annualised since FY22.

Occupancy slipped to 97.5% in FY25 from 98.1% in FY24 due to Mosaic Group tenancy expiries. Cost of debt fell to 4.3% from 4.9%.

Acquisitions worth $64.5m were conducted at a 6% yield over the period, with divestments of non-core assets at -$227.5m at a cap rate of 5.8%.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.02
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Reliance Worldwide reported an in-line earnings (EBITDA) result, with slightly lower than expected depreciation & amortisation and interest, resulting in a slight 2% beat for net profit after tax, Citi notes.

Good cost management underpinned a better-than-forecast Americas earnings (EBIT) result by 5%, despite lower volumes, with a higher margin by 20bps.

There was an impact from tariffs of -$3.3m in 2H25, and EMEA largely met expectations, but conditions remain challenging.

APAC was the ongoing miss, with earnings (EBIT) down notably to $14m from $26m, with consolidated results “messy,” the analyst states, due to the transfer of Sharkbite Max.

Management only offered six-month guidance due to the high degree of uncertainty, with 1H26 looking like a miss at first peek, but post adjustment for pull-forward, the results outlook appears flat.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.65
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Due on 28 August, Sandfire Resources’ FY25 profit is forecast by Macquarie at US$101m reported and US$122m underlying, -8% below and 5% above consensus, respectively.

Revenue and earnings (EBITDA) are expected by the analyst to be broadly in line with consensus.

The broker highlights FY26 production guidance of 149-165kt copper equivalent (Macquarie 156.5kt) and expects operating cost and capex guidance alongside the results.

Group C1 costs are forecast by the analyst at US$1.52/lb, 8% above consensus on higher Matsa costs, with total capex of -US$212m in line with expectations.

Macquarie anticipates a maiden capital management framework at the August results, with dividends likely from 2HFY26 once the balance sheet reaches net cash.

Macquarie maintains its target price at $12.00 and a Neutral rating

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.61, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett lowers its FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -7% post the recent June quarter update, with the FY25 result due on August 28.

As expected, FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance was $528m, with FY26 underlying costs guided up 15% on FY25 to -$661m.

The analyst continues to see upside with exploration, scale, and liquidity, with the ability for management to deliver sufficient performance to warrant a higher valuation multiple ascribed to the stock.

Accumulate. Target rises to $12.35 from $11.95.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: $0.14
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.61, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Sims announced FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $175m versus Citi and consensus forecasts of $170m/$164m, respectively. Underlying net profit after tax missed consensus of $90m at $83m, and the dividend of 23c was in line.

North America came in softer than anticipated, while SA Recycling was better than expected. The loss generated from global trading at -$4m was lower, and Australasia reported softer-than-forecast results due to weakness in regional steel prices.

Citi notes US tariffs are boosting US ferrous demand and supporting local demand for ferrous scrap, with the premium expected to move into FY26 from FY25 and boost North American sales and margins. Export sales will continue to face headwinds from record-high Chinese steel exports.

Citi also notes resale prices are being assisted by hyperscale data centre expansion, with stronger US supply chains supported by tariffs.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $0.2
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.66, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie inititiates coverage on Turaco Gold with an Outperform rating, highlighting the Afema project in Cote d’Ivoire as its flagship asset.

Afema currently hosts a 3.6moz resource and is expected to support production of around 200kozpa at costs (AISC) of circa -US$1,600/oz from 2028.

The broker notes resource growth has been rapid, rising 40% in less than a year to 3.55moz, with recent drilling results suggesting further upside and new discoveries.

Afema benefits from existing road, port and power infrastructure, proximity to Abidjan, and a granted mining permit, explains the analyst, providing a relatively clear pathway to development.

Macquarie points to catalysts including a resource update before the end of 2025 and a pre feasibility study (PFS) in mid-2026.

The broker sets its target price at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.29
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Whitehaven Coal's result, Macquarie notes its FY25 earnings forecast aligns with consensus, but its underlying earnings per share is 16% higher, with deferred payment accounting treated as exceptional.

Macquarie's FY25 final dividend is lifted, believing a proportional underlying free cash-flow method may be employed due to negative EPS projections.

The broker increases forecast FY26 unit costs by 4%, rebasing unit cost drivers in NSW and lowering the sales mix of the lower cost Narrabri. Blackwater production is increased. The changes result in a -16% drop in Macquarie's net asset valuation.

Target falls to $6.50 from $7.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources