Australian Broker Call
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November 26, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ADH - | Adairs | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
APX - | Appen | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
BAP - | Bapcor | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
CWN - | Crown Resorts | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
FPH - | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
SCP - | Shopping Centres Australasia Property | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $3.56
Ord Minnett rates ADH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Adairs will acquire Australian furniture retailer Focus on Furniture for $80m as a relatively low-risk entry into the home furniture segment and a natural fit with its home furnishings segment, according to Ord Minnett.
The cost price represents 2.4 times underlying earnings achieved in FY21 which totaled $32.8m, but the broker expects earnings benefited from recent elevated spending in home segments. Double-digit earnings per share are expected to be achieved in FY23.
The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target price increases to $4.10 from $4.00.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.54
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 35.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -
Adairs has purchased vertically integrated furniture retailer Focus on Furniture for $80m, comprising $74m debt-funded cash and a $6m share placement to Focus's CEO.
UBS says Adairs hopes to gain greater exposure to mid-market home furniture categories so as to offer a complete home furnishing proposition; expand its range; better its under-invested store network; increase margins and synergies; and roll out stores in NSW and Queensland.
UBS says the share price implies Adairs acquired the in-store business almost for free and forecasts an EPS compound annual growth rate of 16% over FY22 to FY25, believing this appears attractive on valuation.
EPS upgrades rise 7% for FY 22 (partial contribution), and 10% for FY23 and FY24.
Target price rises 9% to $5.90 from $5.40. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $2.34
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.90 cents and EPS of 41.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.64
Macquarie rates APX as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
In recent discussion with industry contacts, Macquarie has observed a trend where some big-tech companies are looking to directly crowdsource for annotation. This is in preference to using third party annotation companies including Appen.
The broker's revised FY21-23 revenue estimates are now -7%-10% below consensus forecasts and the target price is lowered to $9.50 from $11.80. Macquarie's rating is also lowered to Underperform from Neutral.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: minus $2.14 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.78, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of -19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of 26.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.51
Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -
After incorporating Aurizon Holdings' One Rail acquisition into estimates, Citi explains a forecast earnings uplift is more than offset by lower near term free cash flow and increased debt.
The broker's target price falls to $3.69 from $4.25 and its Neutral rating is unchanged.
Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.18
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -27.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.03
Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
While there may be a risk of further personnel churn, Morgan Stanley sees little impact upon near-term earnings from the unexpected retirement of Bapcor's CEO, Darryl Abotomy.
However, reduced optionality for EPS upgrade catalysts, such as M&A and increased uncertainty around management leads the broker to downgrade its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight. The target price falls to $7.80 from $9.70. Industry view: In line.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.77
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.39, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 8.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.79
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley sees a tailwind for Computershare's Mortgage Serving Rights (MSR) business, which will only increase in a rising interest rate environment. The company has been buying MSRs.
The Mortgage Brokers Association Refinancing Index has been moderating as US rates increase, a boost for revenues in the US MSR business. The Overweight rating and $21.50 target price are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.79 Difference: $1.71
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.95, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.93 cents and EPS of 72.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.58 cents and EPS of 80.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.1, implying annual growth of 15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.29
Credit Suisse rates CWN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse expects Blackstone's $12.50 cash bid for Crown Resorts will be modified and then accepted by the board, notwithstanding a competing bid. Las Vegas Sands is known to be interested in acquisitions in Asia.
What Blackstone is offering could be accepted because what A&NZ casinos can offer (synergy and property restructure) is subject to execution risk, Credit Suisse notes. If the Victorian Royal Commission recommendations are accepted, Packer has to sell his 36%.
The broker believes the bid can be lifted to $13.00 and hence has raised its target to that price, up from $9.80, and upgraded to Outperform.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $1.71
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.80, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 44.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.22
Morgans rates DEL as Speculative Buy (1) -
Morgans maintains its Speculative Buy rating for Delorean Corp and notes preferred tenderer status (likely to sign) for a $40m-$50m contract with Yarra Valley Water. However, the analyst cautions over rising costs. The target price falls to $0.27 from $0.275.
The broker has a bull case target of $0.40 should government policy changes recognise carbon credits created by biomethane.
Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.05
If DEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EML EML PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $3.61
UBS rates EML as Buy (1) -
UBS view the Central Bank of Ireland's most recent response to the PFS acquisition as a major de-risking event.
EML lost roughly -$885m in market cap and, after the 31% jump in the share price, that has fallen to -$570m.
UBS says EML's ability to pitch to new customers should improve dramatically and no limit restrictions will apply to existing operations.
The broker expects a re-rate should sales conversions proceed but says the share price looks attractive regardless.
Buy rating and $4.40 target price retained.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.79
If EML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 79.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $32.30
Credit Suisse rates FPH as Neutral (3) -
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's earnings comfortably beat forecasts as covid persists. Demand for hospital hardware was particularly strong outside of North America and Europe in the first half, Credit Suisse notes, and costs were well managed.
The outlook remains favourable as covid cases continue to rise in the US and Europe heading into the northern winter. The broker expects demand for Fisher & Paykel's products will remain above pre-covid levels despite vaccinations and treatments.
Target rises to $34 from $33, Neutral retained.
Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.30 Difference: $1.7
If FPH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.00, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.87 cents and EPS of 63.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.63 cents and EPS of 57.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.3, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FPH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie raises its target price to NZ$37.57 from NZ$32.30 following 1H results that beat consensus estimates by 13% and the brokers forecast by 11%. The analyst considers there are strong signs of Nasal High Flow (NHF) Therapy adoption.
The broker lifts EPS forecasts for FY22-24 by 9%,13% and15%, respectively, to reflect upgrades to Hospital revenue. As a result, Macquarie lifts its rating to Outperform from Neutral.
The analyst points out around 70% of Hardware sales came from outside US/Europe, which augers well for clinical adoption and device utilisation.
Current Price is $32.30. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $34.00, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.79 cents and EPS of 66.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.85 cents and EPS of 74.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.3, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GMA GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Banks
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Overnight Price: $2.34
Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie will be using APRA data as a guide going forward for Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia. This comes as the analyst estimates no material variances between the company''s consolidated accounts and APRA filings.
For the next short-term catalyst, the broker awaits news surrounding the renewal of the Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) contract. The broker's Outperform rating and $3.25 target price are retained.
Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.91
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.70
Ord Minnett rates HSN as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett expects Hansen Technologies guidance for modestly improved revenue in FY22 to imply growth below 5%. Additionally, guidance is based on underlying comps which excludes the Telefonica benefit in the previous year.
Commentary from the company suggests global labour shortages are the driver of lowered expectations, and the company is exploring options to reduce pressure such as development hubs and additional recruitment resources.
Earnings per share estimates are downgraded -4-5% through to FY24, and forecast revenue growth is downgraded to 3% from 7%.
The Buy rating and target price of $6.50 are retained.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $0.8
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.49
UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -
Kogan.com's trading update proved a mix bag, the company reporting in-line sales but lower EBITDA.
UBS says that while sales and gross profit are in line, the company will need to record a higher than usual seasonal uplift through November and December to meet first-half consensus estimates.Much hangs on whether the company can meet its $3bn gross sales target and UBS views this as unlikely.
Gross margins are trend upwards and inventory has normalised. Operating expenditure rose on marketing costs and UBS expects this will continue to drive a below-consensus performance.
Neutral rating and $10 target price retained.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $1.51
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $28.32
Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -
National Australia Bank's acquisition proposal for Citigroup's Australian consumer lending business has been green-lighted by the ACCC, with Ord Minnett noting National Australia Bank expects deal completion in the first half of 2022 and full integration mid-2024.
Compared to the alternative share buyback using surplus capital, Ord Minnett estimates the Cittigroup acquisition will be 1-2% more earnings accretive despite risk in consumer lending exposure.
The Accumulate rating and target price of $31.40 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $31.40 Current Price is $28.32 Difference: $3.08
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.8, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.5, implying annual growth of 9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWH NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $1.74
Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -
Despite ongoing labour issues, NRW Holdings reassured investors of a positive outlook at its AGM, and expects FY22 earnings (EBIT) to be at the upper end of the guidance range.
Macquarie makes minor forecast changes and retains its Outperform rating and $2.20 target. Management flagged a potential upgrade to guidance at the 1HFY22 results, should the current strong performance continue.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.46
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -
NRW Holding's AGM update met consensus and UBS earnings forecasts and management expects earnings before interest and tax will come in at the top end of guidance.
UBS notes covered revenue is tracking at $2.3bn compared to FY22 guidance of $2.4bn to $2.5bn and says claims payments are at 50%.
Buy rating and $2.40 target price retained.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.66
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 24.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $16.37
Ord Minnett rates PNI as Accumulate (2) -
Pinnacle Investment Management Group will employ its equity raised $105m to fund the acquisition of a 25% stake in private equity and venture capital boutique Five V Capital, following which Ord Minnett notes the company will have $150 headroom for growth initiatives.
While the broker finds the deal expensive at a total price of $75m, it was noted that it provides diversification and appears sensible.
The Accumulate rating and target price of $17.00 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $0.63
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.50 cents and EPS of 41.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 48.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 21.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPM PEPPER MONEY LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $2.30
Credit Suisse rates PPM as Outperform (1) -
Pepper Money has not been overlooked in the recent de-rating of non-bank lenders but the market responded well to its trading update, Credit Suisse notes. Pepper expects a 2021 net interest margin in line with prospectus forecast.
This is an impressive outcome, the broker suggests, given intense competition and record originations. Yet current valuation suggests the market is still expecting a severe hit to NIMs next year along with all lenders.
Credit Suisse disagrees and maintains Outperform after dropping its target to $3.05 from $3.35.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.75
If PPM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PPM as Outperform (1) -
While Macquarie notes Pepper Money's 2H mortgage margins appeared to be impacted by competition, management upgraded FY21 cash earnings guidance to $135-138m from $120.7m.
The analyst concludes margin pressure appears to be priced in without allowance for offsetting volume growth and sees an undemanding valuation.
While maintaining its Outperform rating, the broker lowers its target to $3.10 from $3.25 after also allowing for the impact of medium-term funding-cost increases.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.8
If PPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 32.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $96.63
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
Simon Trott, the Chief Executive of Rio Tinto Iron Ore noted in a meeting with Macquarie that underlying demand for iron ore remains reasonably robust. He did however point to some potential softness in prices post the winter Olympics and the Chinese New year.
The broker retains its Outperform rating and $133 target price.
Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $96.63 Difference: $36.37
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $108.43, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1384.24 cents and EPS of 1785.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1860.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1413.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1075.10 cents and EPS of 1481.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1173.0, implying annual growth of -36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 836.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED
REITs
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Overnight Price: $2.90
Macquarie rates SCP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Even after Macquarie allows for a stronger post-covid-shop-local thematic for Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group, the broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Underperform. It's estimated upside risk is encapsulated in the current share price.
The analyst makes slight upgrades to EPS forecasts and increases its target price to $2.94 from $2.90.
Target price is $2.94 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.04
If SCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of -61.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.61
Ord Minnett rates STG as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett notes a strong result in the first half of FY22 for Straker Translations is validation of company strategy, which largely includes strategic acquisitions and upscaling enterprise relationships.
Revenue growth of 58% was driven by an approximate NZ$5m benefit from the Lingotek acquisition and the IBM contract ramp-up. A -NZ$1.0m underlying earnings loss was attributed to resource investment to deliver on the IBM contract and facilitate future growth.
Expect revenue of over $50m for FY22. Ord Minnett finds Straker Translations well placed to achieve the stretch revenue target of $100m in 2-3 years.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.27 from $2.46.
Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.66
If STG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.08
Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -
Citi believes the strongest favourable impact from covid for Suncorp Group is from lower motor frequency (lower claims) during lockdowns in NSW and Victoria. This follows the group flagging $60m of net covid benefits in 1Q21.
The broker feels the current share price represents an attractive entry point for investors and maintains its Buy rating and $12.80 target price.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.08 Difference: $1.72
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.13, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 67.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 87.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.5, implying annual growth of 21.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $4.08
Macquarie rates TLS as No Rating (-1) -
Macquarie considers the upcoming low-band 850/900MHz auction (results due in December) is key for the quality of rollout of 5G mobile networks in Australia in the medium term. It's also considered a potential catalyst for the accelerated roll out of 5G fixed wireless strategies.
The broker increases its FY22-24 EPS forecasts by 1%, 2% and 3%, respectively, to incorporate lower amortisation forecasts
(longer amortisation period) and the inclusion of Telstra Health.
Macquarie is on research restriction and cannot provide a rating or target at present.
Current Price is $4.08. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.62
Macquarie rates TPG as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie considers the upcoming low-band 850/900MHz auction (results due in December) is a key for the quality of rollout of 5G mobile networks in Australia in the medium term. It's also considered a potential catalyst for accelerated roll out of 5G fixed wireless strategies.
The broker raises its target price for TPG Telecom to $8.40 from $7.70, after allowing for spectrum auction forecasts in capex and earnings estimates. The Outperform rating is unchanged.
Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $1.78
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -76.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UNI UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $7.69
Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -
Morgans feels sales will gather momentum over the rest of the year. This follows a trading update by Universal Store Holdings for the first 20 weeks of FY22 that exceeded expectation. Moreover, the rate of store expansion is outrunning forecasts.
The analyst notes the private label concept Perfect Stranger (3 of the group’s 76 physical stores) will shortly launch its own standalone website. The broker lifts its target price to $8.90 from $8.72. The Add rating is unchanged.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.69 Difference: $1.21
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates VSL as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Vulcan Steel distributes carbon steel, stainless steel and engineering steel to A&NZ customers in the engineering, construction, manufacturing, mining and other segments. It adds value through service and product availability, and through providing processing services.
Credit Suisse initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $8.90 target.
The broker expects Vulcan to deliver volume growth above-market for the medium term from an under-penetrated position, particularly in Australia. Operating leverage will see industry-leading earnings margins be sustained or grow.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.02 Difference: $0.88
If VSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 39.52 cents and EPS of 56.45 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 41.40 cents and EPS of 58.33 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.64
Macquarie rates WEB as Neutral (3) -
Following 1H results, Macquarie believes Webjet is set to take market share as global travel markets reopen and maintains its Neutral recommendation. It's though there's sufficient cash reserves to pursue attractive growth opportunities.
The analyst lowers its target price to $6.10 from $6.60 after making earings forecast changes and raising the broker's risk free rate.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.46
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ADH | Adairs | $3.65 | Ord Minnett | 4.10 | 4.00 | 2.50% |
UBS | 5.90 | 5.40 | 9.26% | |||
APX | Appen | $9.55 | Macquarie | 9.50 | 11.80 | -19.49% |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | $3.45 | Citi | 3.69 | 4.25 | -13.18% |
BAP | Bapcor | $6.76 | Morgan Stanley | 7.80 | 9.70 | -19.59% |
CWN | Crown Resorts | $11.25 | Credit Suisse | 13.00 | 9.80 | 32.65% |
DEL | Delorean Corp | $0.22 | Morgans | 0.27 | 0.28 | -1.82% |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | $31.18 | Credit Suisse | 34.00 | 33.00 | 3.03% |
PPM | Pepper Money | $2.30 | Credit Suisse | 3.05 | 3.35 | -8.96% |
Macquarie | 3.10 | 3.25 | -4.62% | |||
SCP | Shopping Centres Australasia Property | $2.86 | Macquarie | 2.94 | 2.90 | 1.38% |
STG | Straker Translations | $1.65 | Ord Minnett | 2.27 | 2.46 | -7.72% |
TPG | TPG Telecom | $6.56 | Macquarie | 8.40 | 7.70 | 9.09% |
UNI | Universal Store | $7.82 | Morgans | 8.90 | 8.72 | 2.06% |
WEB | Webjet | $5.38 | Macquarie | 6.10 | 6.65 | -8.27% |
Summaries
ADH | Adairs | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.56 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.56 | ||
APX | Appen | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.64 |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.51 |
BAP | Bapcor | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.03 |
CPU | Computershare | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $19.79 |
CWN | Crown Resorts | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.29 |
DEL | Delorean Corp | Speculative Buy - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.22 |
EML | EML Payments | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.61 |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $32.30 |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.30 | ||
GMA | Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.34 |
HSN | Hansen Technologies | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.70 |
KGN | Kogan.com | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.49 |
NAB | National Australia Bank | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $28.32 |
NWH | NRW Holdings | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.74 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.74 | ||
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $16.37 |
PPM | Pepper Money | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.30 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.30 | ||
RIO | Rio Tinto | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $96.63 |
SCP | Shopping Centres Australasia Property | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.90 |
STG | Straker Translations | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.61 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.08 |
TLS | Telstra | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.08 |
TPG | TPG Telecom | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.62 |
UNI | Universal Store | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.69 |
VSL | Vulcan Steel | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.02 |
WEB | Webjet | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.64 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 18 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 6 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Friday 26 November 2021
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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