Australian Broker Call
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October 13, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BGA - | Bega Cheese | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
IAG - | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
LYC - | Lynas Rare Earths | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
NTD - | National Tyre & Wheel | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $0.66
Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -
Air New Zealand's first time guidance for H1 has turned into a good old fashioned profit warning with Macquarie suggesting the midpoint of management's guidance is some -20% below its own forecast.
Softer domestic travel and higher fuel prices have been identified as the key factors weighing on the outlook. Estimates have been lowered.
The broker maintains the valuation looks attractive and thus the Outperform rating remains in place, with a price target of NZ$0.87.
Current Price is $0.66. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.62 cents and EPS of 6.93 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.08 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.50
Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -
ALS Ltd is scheduled to release H1 financials on November 14 and Macquarie is positioned for a net profit of $155m, at the top end of management's guidance, and representing a -3% decline on last year.
The broker reminds investors this company has a good track record of delivering near the top of management's guidance, plus it usually includes FY guidance.
Target $12.80. Outperform with the broker suggesting short term headwinds might keep EPS growth negative in FY24.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $1.3
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.66, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.20 cents and EPS of 62.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 67.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.7, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANG AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $0.25
Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -
During Austin Engineering's AGM, management reaffirmed H1 guidance for revenue of between $120-140m and underlying profit
in the range of $10-12m.
The company's Australian operations have returned to profit in H1, notes Shaw and Partners, while the US operations should experience substantial growth as customers convert to customised truck bodies.
Also in the US, the company has been awarded a US$20m Wyoming State facility growth package to modernise and expand its capacity.
The Buy rating and 43c target are unchanged.
Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.18
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.69
Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -
Aurizon Holdings has reiterated guidance but Macquarie points out there are pros and cons with coal volumes better but not quite as improved as the broker had anticipated.
Grain has probably peaked, suggests the broker, while iron ore is performing ahead of forecasts.
Only small adjustments have been made to forecasts. Target unchanged at $4.04. Outperform.
Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.35
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 66.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.01
Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -
Assay results for one metre re-split samples re-splits of the original GEO-01 discovery have returned significant zones of higher-grade gold, notes Shaw and Partners.
The broker reminds investors Antipa Minerals is a very cheap exposure to a strengthening gold price.
The 6c target and Buy, High Risk rating are unchanged.
Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.05
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 500% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.80
Bell Potter rates BGA as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Following a -15% decline in shares of Bega Cheese since in-line FY23 results, Bell Potter upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold. Stable year-on-year milk supply and rising Australian ingredient prices also contributed to the broker's upgrade.
While the analysts raise their earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 5% and 8%, respectively, the target falls to $3.35 on $3.50 on changes to the broker's financial modeling.
There is material valuation upside should Bega Cheese execute on its five-year targets of a greater than 10% return on funds employed (ROFE) and $250m in earnings, points out the broker.
Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.55
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 78.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BLX BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED
Furniture & Renovation
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Overnight Price: $1.87
Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -
Nick Scali ((NCK)) and Beacon Lighting are Citi's top picks in small cap retail. The broker's call on Beacon Lighting remains, following evidence of a brighter outlook (pardon the pun) via the company's AGM trading update.
Sales are turning positive in September, after a soft start in July and August, note the analysts, and there is potential for the opening of nine stores in FY24 (three open already), ahead of Citi 's forecast for six.
The Buy rating and $2.10 target are unchanged.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.23
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.15
UBS rates CNU as Downgrade to Sell from Cease Coverage (5) -
UBS has Chorus on Sell with a price target of NZ$6.75.
Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.20, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of 28.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.74
Ord Minnett rates ECF as Hold (3) -
Elanor Commercial Property Fund has announced the sale of Nexus Centre will no longer be going through, with the intended purchaser unable to raise necessary funds.
Ord Minnett points out retaining the asset leaves Elanor Commercial Property Fund with look-through gearing of 41% and a loan to value ratio of 42%. While slightly accretive to funds from operations, the broker would have preferred to reduced gearing in the current climate.
The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to 83 cents from 84 cents.
Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.09
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $4.46
UBS rates FBU as Buy (1) -
BGC Construction is pushing for a national recall of the pro-fit polybutylene pipes manufactured by Iplex Australia, which if successful would see the liability for burst pipes in 30,000 homes fall to Fletcher Building.
UBS notes BGC Construction claims the costs of burst pipes has totaled $1.8bn, and the companies are jointly investigating using re-lining technology as a lower-cost repair option.
Fletcher Building points out no abnormal levels of leaks have occurred in the eastern states, where different installation practices are more commonly used. The broker is Buy rated with a target price of NZ$6.15, but its rating and target price remain under review.
Current Price is $4.46. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.42 cents and EPS of 41.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.57 cents and EPS of 40.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of -7.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $21.33
Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -
A visit to Fortescue Metals' Iron Bridge operations and its green energy hub impressed the analysts at Citi due to its size and complexity.
Management now expects iron ore concentrate production of circa 5mt in FY24, down from the prior 7mt guidance. While the plant is producing on-spec product, FY26 will be the first year of full production, notes the broker.
The Sell rating and $18.90 target are maintained.
Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $21.33 Difference: minus $2.43 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.43, suggesting downside of -18.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 156.49 cents and EPS of 186.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 142.94 cents and EPS of 177.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.3, implying annual growth of -18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GL1 GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.36
Shaw and Partners rates GL1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -
Despite a halving in the share price of Global Lithium Resources, Shaw and Partners highlights substantial progress at the 100%-owned Manna Lithium project over the past 12 months.
Both this project and the Marble Bar Lithium project, also 100%-owned, are alongside world class lithium deposits, points out the broker. There's thought to be outstanding value on offer in the current share price and the Buy, High Risk rating and $3.20 target are maintained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $1.84
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HLO HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $2.80
Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy, High Risk (1) -
A new analyst covering Helloworld Travel at Shaw and Partners likes the quality of management and the strong macroeconomic outlook in travel and leisure and raises the broker's target to $3.50 from $3.40.
The analyst points out travel agency customers are often older and more cashed-up than average and spend relatively more on travel and leisure. Moreover, rising interest rates serve as a pay-rise for such a demographic.
The Buy, High risk rating is unchanged.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.7
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 90.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 24.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.64
Morgans rates IAG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Insurance Australia Group has provided FY24 guidance for double digit gross written premium (GWP) growth and re-affirmed a reported insurance margin of between 13.5%-15.5%.
Management noted FY24 has been benign from a natural perils perspective so far.
While Morgans expects earnings momentum will improve further throughout FY24, the broker makes only minor adjustments to its forecasts. As the share price has recently declined, the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.
The target slips to $6.24 from $6.26.
Target price is $6.24 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $0.6
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 40.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.41
Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -
Citi feels current soft exploration levels adds credence to some industry commentary suggesting weakness could persist beyond 2023. Given this prolonged weakness, Imdex is expected to reveal Q1 revenue similar to Q4 FY23 at its AGM on October 19.
While industry fundamentals are supportive for Imdex, according to the broker, the Neutral rating remains due to a dearth of near-term catalysts. The $1.60 target is unchanged.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.19
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 40.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 9.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LYC LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $6.73
UBS rates LYC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Given both share price weakness and recovery in rare earth pricing, UBS has lifted its rating on Lynas Rare Earths. The company's stock has declined -10% since July, as rare earth prices have climbed 22%.
For the broker, ramp-up at the Kalgoorlie site remains a risk, but the company does guide to first mixed rare earth concentrate from September.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price of $8.00 is retained.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.73 Difference: $1.27
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of -18.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of 85.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NTD NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $0.80
Morgans rates NTD as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
In a complementary fit to the existing wholesale distribution business, according to Morgans, National Tyre & Wheel has secured the wholesale distribution rights for Dunlop Tyres in A&NZ for an initial 5-year term, on a non-exclusive basis.
The analysts suggest this outcome is a clear turning point for the company, as it strengthens the company's brand portfolio and offering, and provides greater confidence in earnings visibility and the pathway to growth.
The broker's rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target increased to $1.20 from 74c.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.4
If NTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.75 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.66 cents and EPS of 12.54 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.60
Morgan Stanley rates RBL as Equal-weight (3) -
Redbubble reported a -6% fall in revenue year on year in the September quarter which was a tick better than consensus. Importantly, the company achieved $0.7m in underlying cash flow having lost -$16.2m the year before.
Morgan Stanley suggests the return to positive free cash flow on higher gross margins and cost control is clearly positive. However sales growth remains elusive, with management expecting trading conditions to remain soft in the near term, particularly in the US.
Equal-weight and 70c target retained. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.1
If RBL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RBL as Hold (3) -
Despite a softer revenue environment, notes Morgans, Redbubble managed to expand its gross profit after paid acquisition (GPAPA) margin by 490bps on the previous corresponding period.
In response to a previously declining margin, management reduced marketing and promotional activities, explains the analyst.
The broker slightly adjusts its forecasts, resulting in a 71c target, down from 73c. Further evidence of margin expansion and an improved revenue trajectory is awaited. Hold.
Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.11
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RBL as Neutral (3) -
The first quarter has seen the continuance of a number of positive trends for Redbubble, according to UBS, including a 28% improvement to GPAPA margins and a marginally improved balance sheet.
The broker considers it a positive that the company has now reported two quarters in a row of materially improved operating earnings and cash flow, but does look to better disclosure on underlying operating metrics to improve certainty around an outlook for profitable growth.
The Neutral rating and target price of 70 cents are retained.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.1
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.76
Ord Minnett rates RWC as Hold (3) -
It is Ord Minnett's opinion that the short-term outlook remains challenging for Reliance Worldwide, and the broker remains cautious on the company.
It was noted that Travis Perkins, a key UK customer for the company, has delivered a weaker than expected update and has subsequently lowered its full year adjusted operating profit by -23%.
Ord Minnett finds housing activity weakened, evidenced by Travis Perkins' results, consistent with Reliance Worldwide's outlook for its EMEA operations. The Hold rating and target price of $4.10 are retained.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.34
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.05 cents and EPS of 29.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.62
UBS rates SPK as Buy (1) -
UBS rates Spark New Zealand a Buy with a price target of NZ$5.70.
Current Price is $4.62. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SRG SRG GLOBAL LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $0.66
Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy, High Risk (1) -
FY24 guidance for around 20% earnings (EBITDA) growth was re-affirmed at SRG Global's AGM. Management noted ongoing labour and cost pressures will be offset by the strength and diversity of the company's business.
SRG's financial year so far has produced contract wins of $266m compared to the $1170m achieved in FY23, observes the analyst. The $6.5bn pipeline of opportunities in a growth sector currently worth over $120bn is expected to result in ongoing contract wins.
The Buy, High Risk rating and $1.15 target are unchanged.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.49
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.92
Macquarie rates TAH as Neutral (3) -
Tabcorp Holdings's Q1 trading update proved weaker-than-expected. Macquarie doesn't think there's an immidiate improvement on the horizon.
The broker does remind investors Tabcorp will be the likely winner of an exclusive Victorian wagering licence, with the outcome possibly by the end of the month.
Macquarie remains cautious on Wagering & Media. Forecasts have been reduced. Neutral. Target drops to $1.05 from $1.10.
Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.13
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 62.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -
A trading update from Tabcorp Holdings indicated a weaker than anticipated wagering market impacted by a softer than expected macro environment, Morgan Stanley notes. Group revenue is down -6.1%.
The broker has cut its FY24 earnings forecast by -9% but notes the fist half is dominated by the December quarter, which includes the Spring Racing Carnival.
Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight based on the potential for significant earnings upside driven by the Victorian license reset, achievement in part or in full of opex reduction targets, and potential digital market share gains.
Target falls to $1.20 from $1.30. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.28
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 62.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -
UBS believes a weaker first quarter from Tabcorp Holdings was a result of soft consumer demand and elevated industry promotions. The company reported a -6.1% decline in group revenue, with wagering and media revenue down -5.4% and gaming services down -12.7%.
The broker admits it was too optimistic about first half trading, and has lowered its market revenue growth rate to -1.0% from 1.0% over the first half.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.02 from $1.11.
Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.1
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 62.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
THL TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.38
UBS rates THL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
New Zealand-based global tourism operator Tourism Holdings Rentals has benefitted from tight market supply and strong market share, outperforming the NZX50 by 6% year-to-date. UBS, however, expects the coming twelve months may prove more challenging.
Alongside the inevitable impacts of a softening economic backdrop, the broker expects rental yields and sales gross margins are likely at a peak in most of the company's geographies, and suggest a potential -13% downside risk to FY25 consensus earnings.
The broker initiates with a Neutral rating and a target price of NZ$3.80.
Current Price is $3.38. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.89
Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -
While Telstra Group has now acquired Versent for $267m to support growing scale within Telstra Purple and NAS, Macquarie finds consensus forecasts are pretty "full", leaving little room for error.
The acquired Versent is a B2B technology consultancy company that offers professional and managed services for businesses through cloud technology.
The share price has been impacted by higher yields, the broker argues, with Telstra's defensive characteristics seen as intact.
Outperform rating retained. Target falls to $4.14 from $4.39. EPS estimates have been slightly increased.
Target price is $4.14 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.25
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
XTE XTEK LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $0.41
Bell Potter rates XTE as Buy (1) -
Australian defence manufacturer XTEK has announced a new $2.2m contract to urgently supply its high-performance ballistic body armour to an undisclosed international customer.
Given recent (Israel) and ongoing (Ukraine) conflicts, Bell Potter sees rising demand for the company's products.
In further news, XTEK intends intends to relocate its proprietary XTclave manufacturing technology to its facility in Ohio and proposes to change the company name to HighCom Ltd, the ballistic armour brand in the US.
The broker explains the positioning towards the US is to raise market penetration via “American Made” products, a requirement of many US Department of Defence contracts.
The Buy rating and 70c target are unchanged.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.29
If XTE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BGA | Bega Cheese | $2.89 | Bell Potter | 3.35 | 3.50 | -4.29% |
ECF | Elanor Commercial Property Fund | $0.74 | Ord Minnett | 0.83 | 0.84 | -1.19% |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | $21.42 | Citi | 18.90 | 18.20 | 3.85% |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | $1.35 | Shaw and Partners | 3.20 | 3.50 | -8.57% |
HLO | Helloworld Travel | $2.76 | Shaw and Partners | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.94% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $5.63 | Morgans | 6.24 | 6.26 | -0.32% |
NTD | National Tyre & Wheel | $0.80 | Morgans | 1.20 | 0.74 | 62.16% |
RBL | Redbubble | $0.60 | Morgans | 0.71 | 0.73 | -2.74% |
UBS | 0.70 | N/A | - | |||
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | $0.91 | Macquarie | 1.05 | 1.10 | -4.55% |
Morgan Stanley | 1.20 | 1.30 | -7.69% | |||
UBS | 1.02 | 1.11 | -8.11% | |||
TLS | Telstra Group | $3.88 | Macquarie | 4.14 | 4.39 | -5.69% |
Summaries
AIZ | Air New Zealand | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.66 |
ALQ | ALS Ltd | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.50 |
ANG | Austin Engineering | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.25 |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.69 |
AZY | Antipa Minerals | Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.01 |
BGA | Bega Cheese | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.80 |
BLX | Beacon Lighting | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.87 |
CNU | Chorus | Downgrade to Sell from Cease Coverage - UBS | Overnight Price $7.15 |
ECF | Elanor Commercial Property Fund | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.74 |
FBU | Fletcher Building | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.46 |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $21.33 |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $1.36 |
HLO | Helloworld Travel | Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $2.80 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.64 |
IMD | Imdex | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.41 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.73 |
NTD | National Tyre & Wheel | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.80 |
RBL | Redbubble | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.60 |
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.60 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.60 | ||
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.76 |
SPK | Spark New Zealand | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.62 |
SRG | SRG Global | Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.66 |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.92 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.92 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.92 | ||
THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.38 |
TLS | Telstra Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.89 |
XTE | XTEK | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.41 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 19 |
3. Hold | 8 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 13 October 2023
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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