Australian Broker Call
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August 31, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 01:46 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
SDG - | SUNLAND GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
SFR - | SANDFIRE | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
VAH - | VIRGIN AUSTRALIA | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Overnight Price: $6.69
Credit Suisse rates ALX as Outperform (1) -
First half earnings were slightly ahead of expectations. Credit Suisse observes growth was underpinned by a combination of increased traffic and higher tolls.
Distribution guidance for 2019 is below expectations at $0.30 a share, albeit up 25% on 2018. The difference centres on assumptions regarding a higher pay-out of available cash flow, Credit Suisse suggests.
The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $7.30 from $7.00.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.61
If ALX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 5.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of -69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 20.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALX as Buy (1) -
Distribution guidance for 2019 at $0.30 is below expectations but Deutsche Bank suspects this may prove conservative, as management unlocks further value.
Management is focused on simplifying the portfolio and optimising the structure. Buy rating maintained. Target is $7.00.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.31
If ALX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of -69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley considers APRR traffic and refinancing the main positive for the stock, supported by further corporate simplification. Yet the complexity of the business and the valuation suggests an Equal-weight rating is appropriate.
The broker forecasts 2018 traffic growth of 4.5% for APRR and a contraction of -4.7% for the Dulles Greenway. Target is raised to $6.99 from $6.36. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $6.99 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.3
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of -69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ALX as Add (1) -
Operating earnings growth and the cash balance were in line with expectations in the first half. First time 2019 distribution guidance of $0.30 per share was below expectations, but Morgans suspects management's initiatives may mean this lifts considerably and targets $0.34 per share.
The broker was disappointed in the decline in traffic on Dulles Greenway of -5.8% and finds it difficult to ascertain whether traffic will trend upwards or whether the road will continue to be susceptible to improvements on competing free roads. Add rating is maintained. Target rises to $6.94 from $6.85.
Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.25
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of -69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ALX as Buy (1) -
Atlas Arteria's earnings growth met expectations. Cash flow increased 30% thanks to a 35% increase in APRR distribution, the broker notes, and FY19 guidance suggests another 38% distribution increase.
The payout ratio is nevertheless set to drop over the next two years, leading the broker to cut forecasts. But with the stock offering a sustainable forward yield of 7% and upside optionality from the APRR restructure, the broker retains Buy and a $7.10 target.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.41
If ALX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of -69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.10
UBS rates AMA as Buy (1) -
It was a solid result for AMA Group, the broker suggests, despite the distraction of the Blackstone bid. No greenfield panel shops were added in the half but this was more than made up for by acquisitions.
The key for AMA, the broker notes, is its ability to consolidate a fragmented industry and Australia is some eight years behind the US is this sense. Insurers remain under pressure to reduce costs and larger players can deliver on scale benefits.
Buy retained, target rises to $1.40 from $1.30.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.3
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ASB AUSTAL LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $1.83
Macquarie rates ASB as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker suggests the valuation is attractive and the growth outlook is strong and being de-risked. Momentum is building across all shipyards.
The company is a leader in the commercial vessel market and its order book is now over $440m. Philippines revenue is expected to surge in FY19 as shipyard expansion is completed by the end of that year. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target by -6% to $2.30.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.47
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ASB as Accumulate (2) -
Austal's FY18 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts although reported earnings were behind expectations due to a higher than expected tax expense.
Management remains positive on the outlook for the business, with a significant replacement cycle of the commercial fast ferry market expected over the next three to five years. The company had guided to FY19 revenue of $1.3-1.4bn, broadly in line with FY18.
Accumulate rating maintained and target raised to $2.10 from $2.05.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.27
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.91
UBS rates BGA as Buy (1) -
Bega's result was in line with guidance, if not compositionally mixed. The focus now is on milk supply growth and asset optimisation and post the Koroit acquisition the broker sees earnings risk skewed to the upside.
That acquisition leads to a target increase to $8.80 from $7.90, Buy retained.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: $0.89
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 38.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.10
Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -
FY18 results beat Deutsche Bank's estimates. The broker observes North America is back on track thanks to a synergy upgrade.
While the increased synergy target for Headwaters pleases the broker, given past integration issues, initiatives around fly ash storage and network optimisation are expected to provide more potential upside in the long-term. Buy rating maintained. Target is $8.10.
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $1
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.5, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CLQ CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.55
Macquarie rates CLQ as Outperform (1) -
The company has reached a heads of agreement with Metallurgical Corp of China to build the Sunrise nickel/cobalt process plant under a fixed price contract.
Securing off-take and funding are now the key catalysts. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $1.40 target.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.85
If CLQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FDV FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $0.57
Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -
First half revenue was in line with expectations. The strongest businesses - Zameen, LankaPropertyWeb and InfoCasas - in the company's 15-entity portfolio did most of the heavy lifting. In contrast, the laggards in the portfolio continue to drag and, in one case, the broker notes, was a total write off.
Morgans writes down the value of several poor performers and writes up the value ascribed to InfoCasas. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.95 from $0.99.
Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.38
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FNP FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $6.64
Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts categorise the FY18 performance as "broadly in line", so you know they actually slightly missed, but without great consequences for the future. An unexpected low tax rate created the impression of a big beat, but the analysts state this should reverse in FY19.
Margins expanded quite nicely and the analysts only see a few minor negatives, such as a delay in the construction of a new blending and packaging facility. Infant formula seems to be going gangbusters. Buy. Target is $6.90.
The following sentence should have every investor's attention: "Freedom remains one of the most exciting stocks in our coverage universe given the potential for earnings to more than double within two years".
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $0.26
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.20
Macquarie rates GTN as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were slightly weaker than Macquarie expected. Incremental cost growth is expected to normalise in FY19. Macquarie expects the benefits of affiliate investment and improved monetisation will underpin earnings growth.
This should provide greater confidence in the outlook and drive a re-rating. Outperform retained. Target is $2.60.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.4
If GTN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.76
Citi rates GXY as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts found the interim report better-than-expected at the EBITDA level, plus the expected sale of minority participation in Sal de Vida before year-end is seen as an additional positive catalyst.
All of a sudden, Galaxy is looking at excess cash in 2019 and the potential to offer shareholders a nice bonus. Buy rating and $4.30 price target left untouched.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $1.54
If GXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates GXY as Neutral (3) -
First half operating earnings were ahead of estimates on a positive inventory adjustment, while net profit was below. Nothing in the results changes the Credit Suisse view, with the main news being the POSCO deal, considered a positive for development funding and supporting the Sal de Vida valuation.
Credit Suisse observes no change to Mount Cattlin operating guidance, while spodumene prices are contracted for 2018 and therefore insulated from spot declines. Neutral rating and $3.15 target maintained.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.39
If GXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GXY as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie found the interim report weaker-than-expected. See also yesterday's Broker Call Report for initial response. Reporting currency is hereby changed to USD from AUD. Target remains $3.90. Outperform.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $1.14
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GXY as Buy (1) -
Galaxy's result missed on the profit line due to higher D&A while cash flow beat, the broker notes. Lithium price rises in the half met expectation. Earnings forecast changes reflect a balance of higher prices and increased D&A.
The key focus is on improved Mt Cattlin recoveries, the broker suggests, and a sell-down or off-take agreements for Sal de Vida, a decision on which should be made by year-end. The miner is considering capital management, but this will hinge on Sal de Vida.
Buy and $3.75 target retained.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.99
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 36.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPD IMPEDIMED LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $0.49
Morgans rates IPD as Add (1) -
FY18 results were in line with forecasts. ImpediMed is transitioning to a SaaS-based revenue model and the broker expects near-term revenue to be lumpy albeit heading higher.
The broker notes the share price has recovered in the last couple of months after the first of two peer-reviewed articles were published on data from the PREVENT trial. Add rating and $1.28 target maintained.
Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.79
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 161% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $18.02
Credit Suisse rates MMS as Neutral (3) -
FY18 results provided few surprises for Credit Suisse. The broker observes the results were flattered by a one-off early termination benefit while retail financial services still have slightly negative momentum. Credit Suisse continues to believe traditional regulatory risk remains low, although still possible.
FY19 growth is likely to be modest, in the broker's opinion, although there is a clear path to double-digit growth beyond that date. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $18.55 from $17.30.
Target price is $18.55 Current Price is $18.02 Difference: $0.53
If MMS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.31 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.6, implying annual growth of 99.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 84.53 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.6, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MTO MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $3.49
Morgans rates MTO as Add (1) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations and reflect a difficult year for the base business. Morgans notes this was more than offset by a maiden contribution from the Cassons acquisition.
The broker observes improving momentum in 2018 to date. While the P/E ratio of 12.9x appears fair, Morgans suggests this reflects the bottom of the cycle in dealership earnings, and is likely to rebound in coming periods. Add rating and $4 price target maintained.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.51
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.19
Morgans rates MWY as Add (1) -
FY18 results slightly beat estimates. Positive fundamentals in the industry and a contribution from recent acquisitions have supported earnings.
Morgans believes the result validates management's decision to evolve the business in order to capture a greater share of the supply chain and reduce exposure to US dollar earnings.
Midway is considered well-placed to build on its performance in FY19 and the broker maintains an Add rating. Target is raised to $3.38 from $3.35.
Target price is $3.38 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.19
If MWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MWY as Buy (1) -
FY18 results were slightly below Ord Minnett's estimates. The result highlighted the pricing outlook for woodchip remains bullish, driven by sustained demand in Asia in conjunction with declining hardwood supply globally.
The broker has lifted FY19 and FY20 EPS forecasts by 7% and 4% respectively, noting that even a flat volume outlook is likely to result in higher earnings on demand issues.
Buy rating retained and target raised to $3.65 from $3.47.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.46
If MWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.35
Morgans rates MX1 as Add (1) -
FY18 results revealed a number of delays and write-downs. Sales were affected by delays with Carestream orders, although lower operating and project costs helped deliver a better underlying result than Morgans had expected.
Morgans adjusts forecasts to reflect the delays and assumes further cash will be needed to fund operations and take advantage of opportunities. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.58 from $0.88.
Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.23
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.96
Citi rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
The company has announced it will acquire the 250kozpa Pogo underground gold mine in Alaska from Sumitomo for US$260m/A$347m and Citi analysts are supportive of the deal, also because Northern Star is turning into a global gold producer, expanding in low-risk jurisdiction.
Target price moves to $8.25 from $7.15. Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $1.29
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 82.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
The company will acquire the Pogo shallow underground mine in Alaska for US$260m, adding 250-260,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1175 to FY19. Credit Suisse observes this will make Northern Star Australia's second largest listed gold producer.
The broker considers the acquisition fairly priced. Reserves and resources have been declining, which suggests the need for exploration, and could indicate that the business has been operating for near-term cash rather than longer-term sustainability.
Still, the broker likes the Pogo mine and believes future growth is key to the acquisition. Underperform rating maintained. Target rises to $6.10 from $5.45.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 65.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 82.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.42 cents and EPS of 70.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NST as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -
Northern Star will acquire the Pogo gold mine in Alaska from Sumitomo for US$260m in cash. The transaction will be funded from existing cash and and a $175m placement at $6.70 per share.
Ord Minnett's believes the asset is genuinely worth more in the bidders hands, valuing Pogo at $576m, or 90cps.
The broker's FY19 group operating earnings forecast has increased 26% and EBITDA per share is 21% higher. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Lighten and target rises to $7.50 from $6.40.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $0.54
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 82.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -
Northern Star intends to acquire the Pogo gold mine in Alaska. The broker likes the purchase and suggests it adds to an already impressive organic growth platform, and suits the company's underground expertise.
Mine life is short, but value lies in Northern Star extending this through exploration, the broker suggests, just as it did with Jundee. Buy retained, target rises to $8.00 from $7.50.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $1.04
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 82.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NTD NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $1.24
Morgans rates NTD as Add (1) -
FY18 results beat prospectus and Morgans' forecasts. The broker notes a modest maiden contribution from the Statewide acquisition. The broker believes the business is well-placed to consolidate the wholesale tyre market and this is where there are meaningful earnings opportunities.
The broker also expects management to continue to execute accretive acquisitions. Add rating and $1.44 target maintained.
Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.2
If NTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.05
Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -
On initial assessment, Citi analysts believe revenues and underlying performance was mostly better-than-expected, though a slightly lower margin ahead (as per guidance), operating cash flow and higher capex can be seen as disappointing.
The analysts highlight management expects material new customer wins to drive growth in FY19 beyond.
Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $1.35
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of -58.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 201.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 48.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 135.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $44.38
Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
It appears Citi analysts are putting in their best effort to tone down investor expectations: this wealth manager is by no means poised for significant growth in the foreseeable future.
But FY19 could turn out a reasonable year, albeit with ongoing risks, if Citi's assessment can be relied upon. As far as FY18 goes, Citi observes a favourable mix helped revenue margins hold up well.
The analysts stress the risk of poor flows remains, with investment performance deteriorating further. Neutral rating and $45 price target retained.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: $0.62
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 280.00 cents and EPS of 305.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 294.00 cents and EPS of 320.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
FY18 net profit was slightly below Credit Suisse estimates. The earnings miss was based on higher expenses offsetting a slight beat on revenue. The final distribution was above forecasts.
FY19 estimates are largely unchanged. With the future strategy unknown until the new CEO starts in September, and potential downside risk of an earnings re-basing, the broker maintains a Neutral rating and $45 target.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: $0.62
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 305.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 290.00 cents and EPS of 321.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley observes the business has financial flexibility, with around $200m in debt availability and around $50m in excess cash. The broker also believes it is becoming easier for Perpetual to meet its criteria of earnings per share accretion in the first year.
The broker notes the investments division performance is at its lowest point relative to peers since FY16, which is not so good. However, Perpetual Private operates a predominantly fee-for-service model without grandfathered commissions and is well placed for the tighter environment post the Royal Commission.
Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $48 from $46. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: $3.62
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 303.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 340.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PPT as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations, although Morgans notes the second half net profit performance was assisted by a $5m one-off reversal of a tax provision and was actually down -2% on the prior corresponding half.
The broker considers results remain robust in the corporate trust and Perpetual Private businesses although pressures continue in Perpetual Investments.
Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $44.59 from $44.85.
Target price is $44.59 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: $0.21
If PPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 304.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 285.00 cents and EPS of 314.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PPT as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were below forecasts. Despite relatively buoyant investment markets, Ord Minnett observes revenue was affected by outflows in funds under management.
The broker believes the share price will continue to be influenced by the challenges of market volatility, FUM outflows and as a new CEO, due to start in September, outlines a strategy for the business. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $46.00 from $45.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: $1.62
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 265.00 cents and EPS of 302.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 285.00 cents and EPS of 324.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PPT as Sell (5) -
Perpetual's profit growth reversed in the second half while earnings slightly missed the broker. The benefits of diversification were evident in growth for Corporate Trust and Perpetual Private, the broker notes, but earnings for the core funds management business fell to their lowest level in five years.
Given investment performance has continued to slip, the broker sees an ongoing risk of outflows and reduced revenues. The broker lifts its target to $41.50 from $40.00 but retains Sell.
Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $44.38 Difference: minus $2.88 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 297.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 279.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
REH REECE AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Furniture & Renovation
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Overnight Price: $12.44
Citi rates REH as Buy (1) -
On initial assessment, Citi believes the FY18 result was in-line, though cash flows disappointed. Management suggested building conditions in Australia remain robust and above long-term averages with continued growth in the alterations and additions market.
Citi is looking forward to further update on the Morsco acquisition in the USA.
Target price is $13.11 Current Price is $12.44 Difference: $0.67
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 49.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $55.76
Citi rates RHC as Buy (1) -
The release of FY18 results proved one thing, comment analysts at Citi, and that is that operating conditions remain challenging. Estimates have been sliced by -1-2% but the price target gained an extra dollar to $62 on incorporating weaker AUD/EUR.
Citi has positioned itself near the bottom of management's guidance, admitting they do not know exactly how Ramsay is expected to achieve some growth in FY19 (probably a combination of volume and price growth and further cost savings) but remains confident growth will return in the medium term.
From FY21 onwards, Citi analysts forecast margin expansion from cost savings on top of more meaningful brownfields contributions. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $6.24
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 281.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 302.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RHC as Underperform (5) -
FY18 earnings were in line with revised guidance. As the stock is trading with no growth in earnings per share envisaged in FY19, as well as facing further downside risk from both Australian and offshore operations, Credit Suisse continues to believe the stock is overvalued.
The broker also questions the quality of earnings, amid continued lease provisions, restructuring and other costs being excluded from core earnings. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $47.20 from $54.00.
Target price is $47.20 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: minus $8.56 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 277.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 299.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates RHC as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank notes FY18 revenue growth of 5% and operating earnings growth of 6%. Growth appears to be slowing but the broker considers the medium-term outlook is positive.
Deutsche Bank considers FY19 will be somewhat of a transition year, amid guidance for just 2% growth in earnings per share. Buy rating maintained. Target is $61.50.
Target price is $61.50 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $5.74
If RHC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie's investment view is underpinned by the expectation of contributions from brownfield developments and operating efficiencies, supporting growth into FY20. The potential acquisition of Capio will provide additional earnings growth ahead of the broker's forecasts.
Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $68 from $71.
Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $12.24
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 283.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 159.00 cents and EPS of 312.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -
FY18 results were roughly in line with expectations but the mix in segments was a surprise to Morgan Stanley, with Asia-Pacific earnings up 12%, France up 3% and the UK down -26%. The broker estimates FY19 growth guidance of 4-6% implies 7-10% growth in Asia-Pacific.
Morgan Stanley does not find the valuation compelling and maintains an Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $56 from $50. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $0.24
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 283.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 305.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RHC as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were in line with recent revised guidance and Morgans observes softer volumes across all geographies. Domestic admissions growth was above the market, albeit below normal trends.
Domestic growth remains affected by the affordability of private health insurance. Morgans believes the longer-term fundamentals are sound but the near-term outlook is challenging and opaque and this is likely to handicap the performance despite attractive trading levels. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $55.55 from $62.28.
Target price is $55.55 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 281.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 306.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RHC as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Despite some signs the worst may have passed for offshore operations, the broker is cautious about the outlook because of the risk of further deterioration in Australia. In particular, domestic activity levels may continue to slow as patients seek to avoid rising out-of-pocket charges.
Rate and price pressure appears inevitable if Labor wins the next federal election, given its policy plans. The broker maintains a Hold rating and trims the target to $55.50 from $60.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $55.50 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 286.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 300.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -
Ramsay's core profit was in line with the broker, with a bit of help from a tax benefit, while Australian operating earnings rose 10% despite a deterioration in conditions in the fourth quarter, the broker notes.
Recent data indicate further deterioration and the broker can't see reform measures as having much impact. For Ramsay to achieve FY19 earnings growth guidance of 4-6% it will require further efficiencies, the broker suggests, in the face of weak revenue growth.
Neutral and $54 target retained.
Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.47, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 291.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 304.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SDG SUNLAND GROUP LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $1.79
Morgans rates SDG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
FY18 results were ahead of guidance and broadly in line with Morgans' expectations. The broker believes the quality of the portfolio and product offering will continue to underpin future sales as the business is focused on specific geographic areas such as Gold Coast, Brisbane and Sydney's northern beaches.
There is also potential for earnings upside in the longer term with profits from several multi-storey projects in the pipeline. Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add on valuation. Target is reduced to $1.85 from $1.94.
Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.06
If SDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.14
Citi rates SFR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi notes the FY18 performance missed market consensus by some -5%, even though it marked a big improvement on FY17. The broker has upgraded to Neutral from Sell inspired by "valuation".
Price target gains 10c to $7.70. Equally noteworthy, the analysts retain the High Risk rating due to the short mine life at DeGrussa plus, the need remains for cash to be reinvested in a new project.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.56
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 82.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 133.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.2, implying annual growth of 73.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations. FY19 guidance is considered marginally ahead of FY18. Credit Suisse notes capital for DeGrussa is still elevated although the balance sheet is robust.
First production at Monty is still slated for the second quarter of FY19, despite the lateral and decline development being behind targets. Black Butte is progressing towards the draft completion in October followed by public consultation in December. Underperform rating and $6.70 target maintained.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.07 cents and EPS of 48.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.34 cents and EPS of 80.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.2, implying annual growth of 73.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie increases estimates for exploration expenditure to $40m per annum for the next two years as the company steps up drilling activity around DeGrussa. FY18 earnings were soft and missed the broker's forecasts. Cash flow was in line.
Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $8.20 from $9.10 to reflect the weaker earnings outlook and higher capital expenditure assumptions.
Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $1.06
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 67.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.2, implying annual growth of 73.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were below Ord Minnett's estimates and consensus. There was no change to FY19 guidance and breaking ground at the Black Butte copper operation is targeted for the March quarter of FY19.
The company has budgeted $40m for exploration expenses in FY19 which has lowered the broker's earnings forecast.
Ord Minnett views the Black Butte project as a platform for ongoing business beyond DeGrussa, but with the stock trading at fair value the broker retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $8.50 from $8.70.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $1.36
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.2, implying annual growth of 73.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -
Sandfire's underlying result was bang on the broker's forecast. Strong cash flow allowed for a better than forecast dividend. Free cash flow continues to be the highlight, the broker suggests.
Monty is expected to come on line late in FY19 which will go some way to boosting production, but the company still needs to offset the short mine life at DeGrussa, the broker warns, and Black Butte production, if permitted, is at least a couple of years away.
Sell and $7.20 target retained.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.06
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 188.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.2, implying annual growth of 73.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.06
Deutsche Bank rates TCL as Buy (1) -
The ACCC will not oppose the Transurban-led Sydney Transport Partners proposed acquisition of a 51% stake in WestConnex. The NSW government held off announcing the winner of the bid as the ACCC had delayed is final decision.
The winning bid is expected to be announced over coming days. Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and $13 target.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.06 Difference: $0.94
If TCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 28.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.68
Morgan Stanley rates TPM as Overweight (1) -
The company has agreed to a merger with Vodafone Hutchison Australia. The merged group will be owned 49.9% by TPG shareholders and 50.1% Vodafone shareholders.
Morgan Stanley observes, from a TPG perspective, this transaction de-risks the investment story and highlights the value created to date.
Going forward, the broker expects the new business will have a different risk/return profile and the question is whether it will be a more, or less, aggressive disruptor. Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $6.70.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting downside of -25.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of -29.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TPM as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The company has announced a merger with Vodafone Australia. Morgans observes both businesses service the cost conscious end of the market with around 20% share. While pro forma numbers have been offered, the broker finds few details regarding the medium-term prospects, such as cost and capital expenditure savings.
Hence, Morgans finds it difficult to value the combined group and has not changed forecasts. The broker continues to be disappointed by management's unwillingness to answer fundamental investment questions such as potential synergies.
Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold purely on backing David Teoh, who will become non-executive chairman of the merged group. Morgans raises the target to $10.40 from $5.41.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: $1.72
If TPM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting downside of -25.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of -29.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TPM as Lighten (4) -
The company has agreed to merge with Vodafone Hutchison Australia, envisaging TPG shareholders will own 49.9% of the company and Vodafone the remainder. Ord Minnett expects significant benefits can be extracted from the merger although pro forma valuation yields a value of just $6.50-8.00 per share based on an 8.5x FY19 enterprise value/operating earnings multiple.
Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating, believing synergies and market share gains will take time and management needs to be careful of cannibalisation. Target is raised to $7.00 from $5.25.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting downside of -25.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of -29.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.62
Citi rates URW as Neutral (3) -
Citi treats this as a European stock. Interim report is seen as strong, but also in-line. The analysts observe cost synergies are running ahead of schedule with management working on delivering revenue synergies. Neutral.
The analysts cite a few stand-out disappointments; Net Operating Income (NOI) in the US and leasing in the UK. A positive is that cost synergies are running ahead of guidance. Target E204.
Current Price is $14.62. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $17.85, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.92 cents and EPS of 20.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.17 cents and EPS of 21.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.1, implying annual growth of 21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates URW as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie found the interim performance better than expected, though some elements proved disappointing. Underlying, it appears the conglomerate (let's call it that) is performing above expectations and synergy targets have been lifted as well, point out the analysts.
Macquarie does seem genuinely worried about the negative development in Net Operating Income (NOI) for Westfield operations in the US. Target has fallen to $16.70, but remains well above the share price (target was $18.39).
The analysts expect to see more asset sales. Outperform rating retained. Estimates have been adjusted, mostly higher, but in minor fashion.
Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: $2.08
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.85, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 91.09 cents and EPS of 101.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 94.98 cents and EPS of 105.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.1, implying annual growth of 21.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VAH VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $0.22
Credit Suisse rates VAH as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
FY18 results beat Credit Suisse estimates. This was mainly because of a stronger performance from the domestic operations, along with higher margins. However, the domestic performance was offset by a weaker outcome in other segments.
Deferred tax assets of around $452m have been written off and Credit Suisse suspects management is more downbeat regarding the prospect of profitability in the medium to longer term. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is lowered to $0.20 from $0.25.
Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of 200.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates VAH as Resume Coverage with Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank resumes coverage with a Hold rating and $0.23 target. The airline reported a strong improvement in operating results in FY18 and the broker notes a disciplined approach to domestic market capacity. This should underpin further domestic earnings, notwithstanding the likelihood of higher fuel costs in FY19.
Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.01
If VAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of 200.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.33
Deutsche Bank rates VEA as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank observes the merits of the retail model in the first half result. The broker was a little disappointed with the small miss on prospectus forecasts and the higher-than-expected debt.
Still these factors are all explained by the volatility of refining, while the core marketing business has delivered a strong result. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $2.65 target.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.32
If VEA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.49
Ord Minnett rates XF1 as Buy (1) -
The company's FY18 results were in line with Ord Minnett's estimates. Credit usage was up 60% and credit sales up 70%.
Expenses were up 40% on the previous corresponding period but management has guided to a contraction in expenditure in 1Q19. Ord Minnett forecasts credit sales growth of 40%pa between FY19 and FY23.
The broker foresees significant ongoing revenue growth and operating leverage and maintains a Buy rating and $0.90 target.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.41
If XF1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
ALX | ATLAS ARTERIA | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.69 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.69 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.69 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.69 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $6.69 | ||
AMA | AMA GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.10 |
ASB | AUSTAL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.83 |
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.83 | ||
BGA | BEGA CHEESE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.91 |
BLD | BORAL | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.10 |
CLQ | CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.55 |
FDV | FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.57 |
FNP | FREEDOM FOODS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.64 |
GTN | GTN LTD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.20 |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.76 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.76 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.76 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.76 | ||
IPD | IMPEDIMED | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.49 |
MMS | MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $18.02 |
MTO | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.49 |
MWY | MIDWAY | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.19 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.19 | ||
MX1 | MICRO-X | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.35 |
NST | NORTHERN STAR | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.96 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.96 | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.96 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $6.96 | ||
NTD | NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.24 |
NXT | NEXTDC | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.05 |
PPT | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $44.38 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $44.38 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $44.38 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $44.38 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $44.38 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $44.38 | ||
REH | REECE AUSTRALIA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.44 |
RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $55.76 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $55.76 | ||
SDG | SUNLAND GROUP | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.79 |
SFR | SANDFIRE | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $7.14 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.14 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.14 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.14 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $7.14 | ||
TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $12.06 |
TPM | TPG TELECOM | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.68 |
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.68 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.68 | ||
URW | UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $14.62 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $14.62 | ||
VAH | VIRGIN AUSTRALIA | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.22 |
Resume Coverage with Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.22 | ||
VEA | VIVA ENERGY GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.33 |
XF1 | XREF LTD | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.49 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 34 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 18 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 6 |
Friday 31 August 2018
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