Australian Broker Call

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December 01, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FMG - Fortescue Metals Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
360  LIFE360, INC

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $12.10

Credit Suisse rates 360 as No Rating (-1) -

Life360 has acquired Tile for up to -US$205m funded via a US$87m entitlement offer and US$116m institutional placement. Tile is a “Global leader in finding things”, with technology embedded in products via partners to locate unique devices, according to the broker.

Credit Suisse is restricted on Life360 and offers no target price or rating.

Current Price is $12.10. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 64.16.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 83.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $2.70

Citi rates AFG as Buy (1) -

Australian Finance Group has acquired a 75% stake in Fintelligence. Offering access to a network of more than 285 brokers and annual asset finance settlements of $1.2bn, Citi notes the acquisition should almost triple asset finance settlements to $1.7bn annually

Citi likes that the purchase diversifies Australian Finance Group into the emerging asset finance market, a higher-margin segment than mortgages and with a solid growth profile. Debt funding of the acquisition drives a 6-7% increase to EPS in FY23 and FY24. 

Buy rating and $3.60 target price are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.9
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.60 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 15.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.60 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie says Australian Finance Group's new corporate debt-funded acquisition of a 75% holding in Fintelligence for -$52.5m will add scale to the company's aggregator position in asset finance.

The company has an exclusive option to acquire the balance over 3.5 years, on the proviso Fintelligence meets undisclosed milestones.

Macquarie estimates accretion of 6.5% in FY22 assuming the transaction is 100% debt funded.

FY22, FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts rise 3%, 5.7% and 6.2%.

Outperform rating and $3.18 target price retained.

Target price is $3.18 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.48
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 15.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AFG as Add (1) -

In response to Australian Finance Group's acquisition of a 75% stake in asset finance aggregator National Finance Alliance, Morgans increases its EPS forecasts for FY22-24 by 3.1%, 5.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Target price rises to $3.60 from $3.40. Add rated.

The company will pay -$52.5m for the purchase of Fintelligence (the trading name), to be funded by new corporate debt. The analyst believes the potential establishment of an asset finance securitisation program may lead to EPS accretion in excess of 5%.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.9
If AFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 15.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $1.03

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP has announced an extra -$115m of cost-out through FY24 at its strategy update.

Other highlights included a 10 basis-point fee compression in Australian Wealth Management, a 10% decline in net interest margins from the bank over an indefinite timeframe and 50% loan growth by 2024.

The demerger is forecast to be effective in June 2022.

Macquarie cuts FY21 and FY22 EPS forecasts -4.1%. Target price eases to $1.10 from $1.12. Neutral rating retained, the broker spying multiple headwinds and awaiting completion of the demerger.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 282.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG  AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $2.05

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Autosports Group's FY22 first-half outlook met Macquarie's expectations, although specific guidance was not provided given the threat of lockdowns.

Management reports an improved revenue mix and higher margins across all revenue streams on the previous corresponding period; and the broker considers the outlook commentary encouraging.

Demand is expected to continue to outstrip supply, although the industry expects some easing of supply in the March quarter. 

Macquarie expects the Mercedes shift to an agency model to proceed but says market dynamics should dull the impact.

EPS forecasts rise 4.6% in FY22 and 3.7% in FY23. Target price rises to $2.80 from $2.70. Outperform rating retained, the broker expecting improving sales volumes, a gradual easing in supply constraints and strong margins.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.75
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.59.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

Autosports Group's trading update shows tight new vehicle supply combined with a back-end recovery continues to buoy margins.

But UBS notes profit guidance fell short of consensus as tight supply hit revenue.

UBS expects higher margins will hold for longer and spies upside, forecasting an FY22-FY25 compound annual growth rate of 10%.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY22; 16% in FY23 and are steady in FY24.

Buy rating retained and target price inches up to $3.15 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $1.1
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.20.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.20.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $39.37

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

Lower production by Brazilian miner Vale in 2022 is likely to be supportive of iron ore producers, according to Morgan Stanley. The company indicated low-grade supply will be held back in order to not oversupply the market.

Morgan Stanley does not have a rating or target at present for BHP Group. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $39.37. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $43.80, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 296.85 cents and EPS of 441.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 514.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 392.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 218.66 cents and EPS of 315.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 405.8, implying annual growth of -21.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP  CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $32.80

Macquarie rates CCP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Corp Group has announced the purchase of Thorn Group's ((TGA)) Radio Rentals appliance leasing business for a total consideration of -$60m, to be finalised in December.

FY22 guidance rises accordingly and also reflects a strong performance from Credit Corp this half.

Macquarie raises FY22 EPS forecasts 1.9%, FY23 forecasts 2.5%, and FY23 forecasts 1.9%.

Target price rises to $36.20 from $35.60. Outperform rating retained, the broker viewing the terms as attractive and supportive of volumes.

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $32.80 Difference: $3.4
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.60, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 143.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.3, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 159.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.6, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

Morgans sees upside from more acquisitions, even after Credit Corp Group announced the acquisition of the Radio Rentals consumer leasing assets for -$45m. It's thought the transaction will accelerate plans to begin operations in the online retail installment segment.

Management upgraded FY22 guidance and stated the investment provides additional momentum for increased growth into FY23. The broker maintains its Add rating, upgrades profit forecasts and lifts its target price to $35.60 from $34.90.

Target price is $35.60 Current Price is $32.80 Difference: $2.8
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.60, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.3, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.6, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $14.10

Macquarie rates CKF as Outperform (1) -

Collins Foods FY22 first-half result outpaced Macquarie's forecasts, thanks to a strong performance from KFC Europe.

The broker flags rising food costs, oil costs, labour shortage and wages pressure ahead, but notes the strategy is in tact.

Store rollouts continued apace, supporting double-digit EPS growth, says the broker.

FY22, FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts rise 6.2%, 0.8% and 2.8%.

Target price inches up to $14.80 from $14.75. Outperform retained.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $0.7
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.40 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 76.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CKF as Hold (3) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Collins Foods were a 12% beat versus Morgans forecast with KFC Europe and better margins for KFC Australia largely responsible. There was 15% same store sales growth for KFC Europe compared to the 9% estimated by the analyst.

The broker raises its forecasts for earnings for FY22 and FY23 by 5%, while profit estimates rise by 13% for each year. The Hold rating is maintained and the analyst cautions on potential lockdowns in the Netherlands. The target price rises to $14.70 from $14.20.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $0.6
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 76.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Collins Foods first-half result impressed UBS, the company staging a recovery in top-line growth and earnings margins in its European KFC business.

Cost containment yielded a 6% operational beat.

Management guides to 17%-plus margins in Australia and the broker spies upside as store rollouts continue globally, and like-for-like sales in the first six weeks of second-half trading remain strong.

Target price rises to $14.10 from $12.85. Neutral rating retained to reflect the high multiple.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.10 Difference: $0
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 76.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.13

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Lower production by Brazilian miner Vale in 2022 is likely to be supportive of iron ore producers, according to Morgan Stanley. The company indicated low-grade supply will be held back in order to not oversupply the market.

The broker retains its Overweight rating and $4.55 target price for Deterra Royalties. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.42
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.80 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 52.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $17.01

Citi rates FMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Fortescue Metals Group has outperformed iron ore peers as the company's share price rose 21% in the last month while competitors largely remained flat or down, but Citi now sees better value elsewhere finding Fortescue Metals Group has reached a fair value. 

The company has managed to outperform benchmark iron ore pricing since early July, and has additionally benefited from falling shipping rates. 

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and $18 target price is retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $0.99
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 176.25 cents and EPS of 220.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 172.28 cents and EPS of 215.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.0, implying annual growth of -20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Lower production by Brazilian miner Vale in 2022 is likely to be supportive of iron ore producers, according to Morgan Stanley. The company indicated low-grade supply will be held back in order to not oversupply the market.

Underweight rating and $11.95 target price are retained for Fortescue Metals Group. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $11.95 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: minus $5.06 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 212.56 cents and EPS of 198.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 158.89 cents and EPS of 148.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.0, implying annual growth of -20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $1.06

Morgan Stanley - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.80

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economic and Sciences (ABARES) has revised its winter crop forecast upward by 10%, causing Macquarie to upgrade EBITDA forecasts 12%, eclipsing the FY21 record.

The broke cites back-to-back bumper winter crops, strong margins supported by demand, and excellent soil moisture for the summer crop. La Nina is forecast to persist until late summer, early autumn.

EPS forecasts are raised 19% in FY22 and 10% in FY23.

Target price rises to $8.04 from $7.64. Outperform rating retained. 

Target price is $8.04 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.24
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 74.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 41.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of -31.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GNC as Add (1) -

Morgans declares the upgrade cycle for GrainCorp is still in-tact and raises its target price to $7.90 from $7.40. The Add rating is unchanged. This comes as ABARES upgraded both its 2021/22 winter and summer crop forecasts (FY22 earnings).

The analyst points out ABARES may upgrade the crop again at the next opportunity in March 2022. Assuming a full export program for FY22, the analyst feels the additional volume from the ABARES update will support strong carry-over grain into FY23.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.1
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of -31.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has forecast a slightly lower east-coast winter crop for FY22, but sharply above earlier estimates.

Buy rating is retained, UBS believing the earnings risk is to the upside, spying opportunities for capital management and an undemanding valuation.

FY22 EPS forecasts rise 23%; FY23 EPS rise 7% and target price rises to $7.45 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.65
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of -31.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $12.15

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Buy (1) -

By comparison with G.U.D. Holdings' pre-transaction enterprise value of $1.3bn, Ord Minnett rates the company's acquisition of AutoPacific Group for -$745m as significant. The company's automotive accessories business is focused largely on towing and trailering.

Management noted the acquisition would be double-digit EPS accretive before amortisation (EPSA) on a 2022 basis, pre synergies. The company feels the target has been affected by the delays experienced from new vehicle deliveries.

Target price rises to $14 from $13.40. Buy rating retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.15 Difference: $1.85
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of 23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GUD as Buy (1) -

G.U.D. Holdings will buy AutoPacificGroup ((APG)) for -$745m. The purchase follows hot on the heels of October's acquisition of Vision-X.

While the purchase increases integration risk, UBS says G.U.D. Holdings is in a transformational period which will expand international growth options; sharply cut earnings exposures for internal combustion engines; improve 4WD exposure; and bring about a greater mix of internal manufacturing.

UBS predicts flat to slightly lower margin growth will be offset by cost synergies.

EPS forecasts rise 5%, 10% and 12% across the forecast period. Target price rises 7% to $13.80 from $12.90.

Buy rating retained.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.15 Difference: $1.65
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of 23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $8.62

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

A change in mining method now allows Iluka Resources to declare a resource estimate for Wimmera. Credit Suisse feels this is an incremental positive and retains its Neutral rating and $9 target price.

The Eneabba Rare Earth refinery now becomes financially viable, as a large Wimmera mine is needed as backup for the small Eneabba reserve, explains the analyst.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.62 Difference: $0.38
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.48, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 79.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.3, implying annual growth of -87.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 79.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $196.74

Citi rates MQG as Buy (1) -

A greater-than-expected take-up of Macquarie Group's share purchase plan, to the tune of $1.3bn, has driven Citi to downgrade earnings per share forecasts by about 1%-2% between FY22-FY24. 

Buy rating and target price of $226.00 are retained.

Target price is $226.00 Current Price is $196.74 Difference: $29.26
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $214.60, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 642.00 cents and EPS of 1085.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1003.9, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 572.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 610.00 cents and EPS of 962.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 965.8, implying annual growth of -3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 586.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $4.07

Credit Suisse rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse anticipates a strong FY22 first-half result for Metcash and notes a shift in the balance of earnings with an improved outlook for independent food retail and hardware expansion. Outperform rating and $4.35 target price are retained.

The increased exposure to Hardware is changing the shape of the company, the acquisition and expansion of Total Tools expected to drive medium-term growth, explains the broker.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.28
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.79 cents and EPS of 25.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MTS as Accumulate (2) -

Metcash's FY22 first-half results are due on Monday December 6, and Ord Minnett forecasts a net profit of $141m and an interim dividend of 10.5cps. Grocery inflation, the assistance from the housing cycle for Total Tools and the rollout of same is thought positive for FY22/23.

The analyst points out the positive effect upon multiples from the mix shift of the business towards hardware, which now contributes 44% of a sum-of-the-parts valuation. Accumulate rating and $4.50 target price are maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.43
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REP  RAM ESSENTIAL SERVICES PROPERTY FUND

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.00

Ord Minnett rates REP as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on the RAM Essential Services Property Fund, which has a portfolio of medical and retail assets, with a Buy rating and $1.14 target price.

The broker likes the well-positioned medical portfolio that has a defensive quality, which is blended with an essential retail portfolio that provides value-add development upside.

The fund is trading at a 7% premium to net tangible assets (NTA) and offers an annualised distribution yield of 5.6%. The analyst notes this compares to peers with a 12% premium and 5.1% yield.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.14
If REP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.54.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $93.50

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Lower production by Brazilian miner Vale in 2022 is likely to be supportive of iron ore producers, according to Morgan Stanley. The company indicated low-grade supply will be held back in order to not oversupply the market.

Separately, management of Rio Tinto have pointed to ongoing inflationary pressures, as the labour market in Western Australia is tight and other input costs, such as energy, continue at elevated levels.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating, $101 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $93.50 Difference: $7.5
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $107.29, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 995.23 cents and EPS of 1637.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1880.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1428.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 666.58 cents and EPS of 1087.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1192.6, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 849.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

Rio Tinto's Iron Ore CEO forecasts Pilbara capital expenditure and unit costs will remain high in the medium term and that underlying demand will remain strong in 2022 as China steps in to prevent a hard landing in its property sector, says UBS.

China is expected to do the bare minimum to keep the market afloat, maintaining a keen eye to carbon targets.

Tight labour conditions persist.

UBS retains a Sell rating, noting the iron ore outlook remains fragile as port inventories build. $79 target price retained.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $93.50 Difference: minus $14.5 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.29, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1607.47 cents and EPS of 1733.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 17.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1880.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1428.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 755.37 cents and EPS of 805.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1192.6, implying annual growth of -36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 849.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $20.52

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -

Despite the launching of legal action by ASIC against Westpac Bank, Morgan Stanley feels investors are already well apprised of the matter. It's thought any penalties above and beyond those already provisioned for by the bank will be immaterial.

The broker maintains its Equal-weight rating and $24.80 target price. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $20.52 Difference: $4.28
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.33, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
360 Life360 $12.10 Credit Suisse N/A 12.70 -100.00%
AFG Australian Finance Group $2.65 Morgans 3.60 3.40 5.88%
AMP AMP $0.98 Macquarie 1.10 1.12 -1.79%
ASG Autosports Group $2.09 Macquarie 2.80 2.70 3.70%
UBS 3.15 3.10 1.61%
CCP Credit Corp $32.46 Macquarie 36.20 35.60 1.69%
Morgans 35.60 34.90 2.01%
CKF Collins Foods $13.88 Macquarie 14.80 14.75 0.34%
Morgans 14.70 14.20 3.52%
UBS 14.10 12.85 9.73%
FMG Fortescue Metals $17.28 Citi 18.00 18.50 -2.70%
Morgan Stanley 11.95 12.50 -4.40%
GEM G8 Education $1.04 Morgan Stanley N/A 1.00 -100.00%
GNC GrainCorp $6.96 Macquarie 8.04 7.64 5.24%
Morgans 7.90 7.40 6.76%
GUD G.U.D. Holdings $10.84 Ord Minnett 14.00 13.40 4.48%
UBS 13.80 12.90 6.98%
Summaries
360 Life360 No Rating - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $12.10
AFG Australian Finance Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.70
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.70
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.70
AMP AMP Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.03
ASG Autosports Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.05
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.05
BHP BHP Group No Rating - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $39.37
CCP Credit Corp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $32.80
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $32.80
CKF Collins Foods Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.10
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $14.10
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $14.10
DRR Deterra Royalties Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.13
FMG Fortescue Metals Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $17.01
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $17.01
GEM G8 Education Cessation of coverage - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.06
GNC GrainCorp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.80
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $6.80
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.80
GUD G.U.D. Holdings Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.15
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $12.15
ILU Iluka Resources Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.62
MQG Macquarie Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $196.74
MTS Metcash Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.07
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.07
REP RAM Essential Services Property Fund Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.00
RIO Rio Tinto Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $93.50
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $93.50
WBC Westpac Banking Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $20.52
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

7

5. Sell

2

Wednesday 01 December 2021

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