Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett, in an initial assessment of Aristocrat Leisure's FY22 released earlier today, finds the performance "solid" with the digital division equally showcasing a "robust" performance, despite having endured issues in the Ukraine.

It looks like reported financials are well above the estimates put forward by the broker beforehand.

The broker notes the trend towards higher quality users continues as higher Average Bookings per DAU more than offset declining daily active users (DAUs).

Management equally announced a $500m share buyback, equal to 40% of the capital raised in September (failed acquisition). Accumulate. Target $49.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $31.60 Difference: $17.4
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.25, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APE as Neutral (3) -

While Eagers Automotive's first half profit guidance of $183-189m is in line with Credit Suisse's expectations, the broker notes the key driver earnings, as it has been for the last year, is global car production volumes and the volume of cars delivered to Australia.

The broker notes demand appears to be holding strong, and has raised its earnings per share forecasts 1.9-5.2% through to FY24 on expected improvement in supply chains, noting that further improvement could offer upside to Eagers Automotive's earnings.

However, Credit Suisse also highlighted that a recessionary environment could see demand slow, and increases the likelihood of contract cancellation. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.40 from $14.60.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $0.9
If APE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Outperform (1) -

Eagers Automotive's March-half trading update nosed out Macquarie's forecasts but missed consensus.

While a question mark still hangs over supply normalisation, making it hard to forecast the June-half skew, the broker estimates the company's order bank contains 51,000 cars, implying $138m profit before tax is in the bank.

Therefore Macquarie considers profit realisation delays as simply delays and not foregone earnings.

EPS forecasts rise 2.6% in FY22; and 5.4% in FY23 before falling between -2% and -3% thereafter, higher margins more than compensating for lower revenue.

Target price falls to $17.50 from $18.75 to reflect the recent market derating. Outperform rating retained, the broker spying strong value at these levels, while acknowledging risks from rate rises.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $6
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Following a market update on year-to-date trading by Eagers Automotive, Morgan Stanley sees limited near term upside on restricted supply (Ukraine and China) and a 2H skew (management's guide).

The company notes a robust order book and some positive China reopening signs, with a broad resumption by the end of June.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating and $18 target price. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $6.5
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Buy (1) -

Eagers Automotive provided a trading update and guidance for 1H underlying profit (PBT), which is expected to be down -12-14% on a year ago.

Supply chain pressures have delayed new car deliveries, while the company's order bank has increased by more than 25% from December, explains the analyst.

The broker believes negative sentiment from rising interest rates has been captured by the current share price and retains a Buy rating, while the target price falls to $16.00 from $17.50.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $4.5
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Buy (1) -

A trading update by Eagers Automotive revealed to UBS demand for new vehicles remains strong and continues to outstrip supply, with the order book increasing by more than 25% since the beginning of the year.

Nonetheless, the broker's prior analysis suggests a strong correlation between new car purchases and property values. Investors are cautioned around reduced consumer demand should interest rate rises suppress house prices.

The target price falls to $17.50 from $18.35. Buy.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $6
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes Aurizon Holdings will have an increased probability of sufficient capital to pursue non-coal growth should East Coast Rail (ECR) be sold rather than demerged.

The broker lifts its valuation for ECR, and reduces the risk discount to -10% from -25% applied for general uncertainty surrounding the process to acquire One Rail and divest ECR.

After also making cost of equity adjustments, the analyst raises the target price to $4.00 from $3.65. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP is considering bringing forward production from its Jansen Stage 1 potash mine by one year to 2026, and has started studies on Stage 2 (which Macquarie expects will yield first production in 2036).

The news came as part of an update on the company's busines strategy, in which BHP reaffirmed its value growth strategy and, while not excluding bolt-ons, stressed the powerful optionality afforded by its existing copper and nickel assets.

Meanwhile, Macquarie reads from CEO Mike Henry's comments that BHP may unlock more iron ore volumes from low-cost programs under the right market conditions.

The broker observes iron-ore and coal prices continue to underpin strong upgrade momentum for BHP, estimating spot prices suggest a 48% uptick in earnings in FY23 and a 125% jump in FY24.

Outperform rating retained, the broker appreciating BHP's plans to boost volume growth at Jansen and organic expansion of its iron-ore assets. Target price steady at $60.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $47.01 Difference: $12.99
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.66, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BLD as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse notes the -$45m downgrade to Boral's full year earnings guidance, excluding Property, is reflective of poor pricing power in the current inflationary environment, with -$30m being attributed to Eastern states rainfall and -$15m to elevated energy costs. 

Further, the broker anticipates energy costs will continue to impact in the coming financial year, estimating gross energy costs could increase a further $70m in FY23, while realised prices are unlikely to be able to fully offset. 

The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $2.60 from $3.80.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -

Boral has downgraded FY22 earnings (EBIT) guidance  to between $100m-$110m from $145m-$155m as wet weather continues to dog works.

The news comes hot on the heels of the March downgrade and Macquarie now lowers December-half estimates, expecting further rain in Queensland.

The broker expects higher-than-forecast energy prices will comprise $15m of the earnings toll, and expects prices to remain high out to June; attributes $30m of the downgrade to weather; and the balance to disappointing Transformation guidance (down to $45m-$50m from $60m-$75m).

EPS forecasts fall -17% in FY22, -6% in FY23 and are steady in FY24.

Outperform rating retained, Macquarie spying strong demand pipeline in infrastructure spend and multi-residential once the sun returns. Target price falls to $4.05 from the previous entry in the FNArena database of $4.30.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.94
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its rating for Boral to Underweight from Equal-weight following another (-$45m) FY22 guidance downgrade, driven by wet weather across Eastern Australia (-$30m) and inflationary impacts.

The broker estimates the cost issues may persist for some time and a lack of price offset is disappointing. Management also flagged transformation program benefits would be lower than prior FY22 guidance by -$15-25m, though the $200m benefit target is unchanged.

The target price falls to $2.80 from $3.20. Industry view: In-Line. The analyst sees better value in the sector via Fletcher Building ((FBU)).

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

Boral has downgraded FY22 guidance due to bad weather and rising energy costs (particularly fuel), and also reported that the benefits from the Transformation program have not outpaced inflation.

All up the impost on earnings (EBIT) was -$45m. Ord Minnett cuts EPS forecasts -34% for FY22 and -16% for FY23.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $3.25 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.14
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

UBS reduces its target price for Boral to $3.15 from $3.45 as its FY22 profit forecast declines by -37% on extreme rainfall impacts and higher-than-expected energy cost inflation. The FY23 profit forecast falls by -33% on increased energy costs.

This comes as management again downgrades FY22 guidance. The broker sees cost headwinds continuing in FY23 with diesel the bulk of its -$60m increase in forecast costs, which more than offsets any transformation (company cost targets) assumptions.

The Neutral rating is maintained by UBS as real pricing increases for heavy materials remain elusive. Multi-family and non-residential construction in NSW is seen as the key catalyst for a recovery.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.04
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Elevated realised steel prices and spread in the US have driven an improved earnings outlook for BlueScope Steel's North Star and North American coated business, leading to the company to upgrade its second half earnings guidance to $1.375-1.475bn from $1.20-1.35bn.

Elsewhere, Australian Steel Products dispatch levels have disappointed but Citi notes strong pricing has offset.

The Buy rating and target price of $22.50 are retained.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.20 Difference: $4.3
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel offers a ray of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy construction market, raising earnings (EBIT) guidance to $1.375bn-$1.475bn (Macquarie's estimate is $1.435bn) from $1.20bn-$1.35bn, thanks to strong steel spreads.

North Star and North America coatings were the main beneficiaries; while ASP despatches guidance softened, despite also enjoying better steel spreads, due to supply challenges triggered by the pandemic and wet weather on Australia's east coast.

Macquarie expects costs will remain high given strong raw materials prices and supply chain challenges. EPS forecasts rise 6% for FY22, 1% for FY23 and 1% for FY24.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $24.40 from $23.85.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $18.20 Difference: $6.2
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Overweight (1) -

BlueScope Steel upgraded 2H earnings (EBIT) guidance by 12%, providing Morgan Stanley with further evidence of leverage to elevated steel prices and spreads.

The upgrade was a 15% beat versus the broker's forecast and revealed improved earnings in the North Star and Nth America coated businesses. The Overweight rating and $25 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

The analyst points out supply chain disruptions and elevated steel prices will see the planned unwind of working capital delayed.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $18.20 Difference: $6.8
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel has upgraded FY22 second-half earnings guidance (EBIT) guidance to $1.375bn-$1.475bn from $1.2bn-$1.35bn, in line with Ord Minnett and consensus forecasts.

Strong steel prices and solid US demand drove the upgrade. Ord Minnett spies a working capital increase this half as high commodity prices hit the business.

Buy recommendation and $26 target price are retained, the broker appreciating BlueScope's low price to net present value ratio, solid balance sheet and share buyback program, on top of an attractive yield.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $18.20 Difference: $7.8
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Following a lift in earnings (EBIT) guidance by BlueScope Steel, UBS raises its FY22 EPS estimates by 6% given better than expected realised spreads from Nth Star and Australian Steel Products (ASP).  FY23 EPS forecasts decline by -6% on lower ASP realised spreads.

Despite supply chain pressures reducing domestic despatch levels, contributions from the downstream businesses at ASP were better than expected, notes the analyst. The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is lowered to $24.75 from $25.75

The broker now assumes no unwind of working capital in the 2H given ongoing supply chain pressures.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $18.20 Difference: $6.55
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of Endeavour Group with an Accumulate rating and $8.60 target price.

The broker expects the company's earnings will outpace market growth, noting Endeavour has several options at its fingertips, including: renewing pubs/hotels, reinvesting in poker machines, and increased penetration from Pinnacle. 

Ord Minnett expects this will demand capital expenditure in the region of a $450m run-rate by 2025, up from $300m over the past five years.

The broker is comfortable with this given the accretive nature of the investments; and expects higher bond yields will drive normalisation of pub valuations and a higher run-rate of acquisitions.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.83
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Andrew Forrest has been appointed as Executive Chairman of Fortescue Metals Group to lead the company's green transition. He will also oversee the iron ore business until a new CEO is determined.

The appointment is part of an ESG-driven management restructure focusing on Fortescue Future Industries and involves several appointments in FFI, including Dr Mark Hutchinson as CEO (former CEO General Electric Europe).

Meanwhile, Macquarie notes iron ore prices continue to support the company's green ambitions, forecasting the company's free cash flow yields should rise from roughly 7% now to a forecast 16%-plus from FY23 onward.

The market is now over-ripe for clarifications on the company's decarbonisation commitments and capital allocations from FFI.

Neutral rating retained, Macquarie noting the company's ability to maintain its 80% dividend payout ratio through the transition will be a challenge. Target price steady at $20.00.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.78 Difference: $0.22
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.22, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Following Integral Diagnostics' $31m acquisition of Auckland-based Horizon Radiology, Citi has increased its earnings per share forecasts 2% for FY23 and FY24, noting the purchase is in line with company strategy and will complement its existing Auckland footprint. The purchase brings Integral Diagnostics' acquisition spend to $125m since February.

Citi also notes covid-related surgery delays and cancellations in the first quarter look likely to heavily impact on business in the second half, but suggests the market look through this noting historical growth is possible as the company addresses a backlog.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.80 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $1.12
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IDX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley estimates around 3% FY23 EPS accretion from the decision by Integral Diagnostics to acquire Horizon Radiology in New Zealand for -$27.4m, with an earn-out of up to $2.7m over two years.

Nonetheless, the broker is looking for a volume recovery in the existing business before lifting its rating from Equal-weight. The $4.36 target price is also unchanged. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.68
If IDX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.43, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Sell (5) -

For a sum of -$75m, Magellan Financial will increase its investment in Barrenjoey to 18.2% from 9.99%, which implies to UBS a more than doubling of the original investment.

Despite this win, the analyst retains its Sell rating and lists a number of factors still threatening downside risk including a potential review of retail fee margins by the new ceo. It's also thought outflow contagion may spread to infrastructure given recent three year underperformance figures.

The target price rises to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $15.01 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests some downside risks to Mirvac Group's earnings following media speculation that Toombul Shopping Centre will permanently close. It's thought the site may be redeveloped in future for a variety of potential uses.

Management confirmed it has both asset and income insurance for the centre. The Equal-weight rating and $2.60 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.38
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Monash IVF has acquired PIVET adding nine fertility specialists to the company's stable.

Macquarie estimates the deal was struck on a 5x multiple (excluding earn-outs) and is 3% accretive to EPS.

The broker views the deal as a plus, underpinning cycle growth, and believes the company is well placed for growth and market-share gains.

Outperform rating and $1.20 target price retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.08
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

While Monash IVF's acquisition of a Perth-based fertility clinic and day hospital (as well as a Cairns fertility clinic) for -$9m is small, Morgans likes the geographical expansion (WA) and boosted market share in QLD.

The broker makes only minor changes to its FY23/24 forecasts  and raises its target price to $1.26 from $1.25. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.14
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie says Oz Minerals' purchase of Kalkaroo offers the company several growth options and could boost copper output sharply by 2030.

Meanwhile, strong copper prices are driving upgrade momentum, Macquarie forecasting 66% higher earnings in 2023 and 81% higher earnings in 2024.

EPS forecasts fall -1% to -3% across 2022 to 2027.

While Macquarie appreciates the company's production growth profile, the broker is awaiting for West Musgrave approval (which accounts for 80% of output in the next five years.) Neutral rating retained. Target price steady at $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.89 Difference: $2.11
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.46, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Qualitas has provided a trading update, expecting net profit before tax to be no less than $23m (14% above prospectus forecasts) and Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts 8.5% in response.

Management said the upgrade reflected capital deployment expectations (16% above prospectus), which incrementally attracts a higher fee than average across the platform.

Macquarie says the company should also benefit from a rising-rate environment, the relatively short term in the company's credit funds allowing it to reprice loans at higher rates.

Meanwhile, the company has added $1bn in extra funds under management from three new funds, is considering co-investment in its funds, and $60m for seed assets, keeping the company's strategy on track.

Outperform rating retained. Target price steady at $2.77.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.79
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

While Serko's full year managed travel business has beat Citi's expectations, unmanaged travel through the company's Bookings.com for Business partnership has not gained momentum as anticipated driving the broker to lower revenue forecasts -9% and -13% 

Despite the result, Citi continues to expect the move into unmanaged travel will drive solid earnings for the company over the medium-term. 

With Australian & New Zealand corporate travel volumes at 83% of pre-covid volumes, the broker also considers Serko's expected 85% corporate recovery in FY23 to be conservative. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.10 from $5.75.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $1.03
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 48.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko's FY22 full-year result fell well short of Ord Minnett's forecasts, the company posting a net loss of -$36m compared with a forecast -$26.3m due to the hefty price paid pursuing the market opportunity offered by world's largest online travel business (and Serko stakeholder), Booking.com.

The broker is not deterred, claiming big prizes rarely come for free, and says the size of the opportunity should not be understated, given it may offer Serko access to the entire global SME customer base.

Much will depend on the bait and switch tactics Serko deploys to woo visitors from the core site to the Booking for Business platform (Serko is guiding to a doubling of revenue in FY23 as a result), and the continuation of labour shortages. 

Meanwhile, the traditional Serko business is showing signs of a post-covid recovery, notes the broker.

Buy rating retained to reflect the scale of the opportunity. Target price falls -25% to $6.03 from $7.93.

Target price is $6.03 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $1.96
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 48.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of Stanmore Resources with an Add rating and $3.80 target price. The recent announcement to acquire BHP Group's ((BHP)) 80% interest in BHP Mitsui Coal lifts the company's metallurgical coal production to number seven globally.

The broker suggests the transaction transforms Stanmore Resources' operating scale and risk profile and there is now dividend upside potential. It's thought a smooth integration of BHP Mitsui Coal will pave the way for more coal sector acquisitions.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $1.15
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Seven Group has not issued a trading update after Boral downgraded guidance, leading Macquarie to conjecture that Seven's guidance will be retained, and that its other assets must be outpacing forecasts.

EPS forecasts fall -2% to account for the estimated impact of inflation, although Macquarie is expecting better price management from the company.

Target falls -2% to $27.10. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $19.64 Difference: $7.46
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.44, suggesting upside of 38.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Buy (1) -

TPG Telecom has announced a sharp uptick in March-quarter subscriber growth, suggesting the post-pandemic recovery is under way and playing out faster than forecast, says Ord Minnett.

The broker acknowledges the risk from the impending release of 1.2bn shares in escrow from the Vodafone merger, but expects mobile subscriber growth and the proceeds from the Tower sale should win the day.

Buy recommendation retained. Target price rises to $7.50 from $7.25.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $1.44
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to today's FY22 release, Macquarie points out all businesses under the Webjet umbrella are now profitable as of April with Q1 group trading currently well ahead of Q4 of FY22.

In addition, the balance sheet is labeled "solid" and cash flows are improving.

Neutral. Target $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.01
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Word on the street is that Webjet's FY22 with forward guidance has missed market consensus, also because of higher corporate costs, but Ord Minnett, in an initial response, remains positive.

Investors looking for exposure to business travel with leverage to leisure recovery in the Northern hemisphere should definitely consider Webjet, the broker suggests.

Ord Minnett picks up management at the company sees strong signs of demand for travel, as well as that Webjet has just experienced its most profitable month since the outbreak of the covid pandemic.

Buy. Target $7.51. Both are now under review as is standard practice at the broker.

Target price is $7.51 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $1.72
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Upon initial glance, UBS thinks today's FY22 release by Webjet revealed a positive proposition on the back of materially better-than-expected cash flows, and with management achieving strong cost out.

The broker points at positive market gains in the online travel segment (OTA) with the business on track to be 20% more cost efficient despite global wage pressures.

Buy. Target $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.96
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources