Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has found an unexpected market update from Life360 a positive, demonstrating a 4.9m increase in global monthly active users and a 96,000 increase in global paying circles.

The broker explains there was little detail provided to explain the strong growth and the impact metrics will have on revenue, earnings and other financial results.

Bell Potter particulalry liked the growth in paying circles, coming off the back of a more disappointing increase of just 55,000 in the fourth quarter, noting the result demonstrates a strong rebound.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $16.25 from $14.50.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $14.18 Difference: $2.07
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of 1Q results on May 10, management at Life360 pre-announced key operating metrics including strong monthly active users (MAU) and subscriptions growth. There was no change to FY24 guidance.

Overall, MAU and conversion to paid users were materially ahead of the broker's expectations. Moreover, the performance was unaided by more aggressive marketing.

The MAU figure of 66.4m implies net additions of 4.9m for the 1Q (a seasonally softer quarter), which compares to the broker's 24.6m forecast for FY24.

Paying circle growth also materially exceeded the analyst's forecast, driven by higher registrations and improved conversions.

Target $14.40. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.18 Difference: $0.22
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Buy-rated Life360 to $15.20 from $11.98 following a market update showing 1Q monthly active users (MAU) and Paying Circle (PC) figures materially ahead of forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Net 1Q additions to MAU of 4.9m was nearly double that expected by the analyst.

A solid skew to the US supports the broker's ongoing thesis the US market is far from saturated and will remain a key driver of growth moving forward.

Ord Minnett modestly increases its MAU and PC forecasts for the end of FY26 to 55.6m and 2.02m, respectively.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $14.18 Difference: $1.02
If 360 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AFG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi is Neutral on Australian Non-Bank Lenders given earnings have troughed and a fall in interest rates is inevitable, even though the timing is uncertain.

The broker notes stock specific opportunities have arisen following an around 20% share price rally across the sector in the last six months, due to the sector's strong correlation with interest rate expectations.

The analysts expect a pause in the re-rating of multiples for the sector as interest rate cut expectations held by the market have been deferred, but note credit growth continues to be resilient.

The broker's rating for Australian Finance Group is downgraded to Sell from Neutral after a share price rally. It's felt a capex-intensive approach at a difficult point in the cycle could result in inadequate returns on the group's reinvestment program.

The $1.50 target is maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: minus $0.205 (current price is over target).
If AFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Ansell will acquire Kimberly Clark's PPE business for -US$640m, funded via an institutional placement and new debt facilities.

The transaction implies a multiple of 9.7x 2023 earnings (pre-synergies), below Ansell's own multiple at 12.0x. Macquarie estimates EPS accretion of some 7% in FY27. The broker sees the acquisition as strategically reasonable.

Macquarie's revised forecasts imply EPS growth of around 14%pa to FY27 from a depressed FY24 base. Target rises to $28.15 from $24.75. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $28.15 Current Price is $23.89 Difference: $4.26
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

Ansell will launch a $263m institutional placement and share purchase plan (up to US$65m) to partly fund the acquisition of Kimberly-Clark's personal protective equipment business for -US$640m. The balance will be funded by a US$377m bridge facility.

The transaction provides a US/EU geographic revenue balance, notes Morgan Stanley, and an opportunity for revenue synergies.

Management expects the transaction will be mid-to-high single digit EPS accretive pre synergies, and low-teen post synergies on an FY24 pro forma basis.

Due to the EPS accretion, the broker forecasts Ansell's FY25 P/E will fall to 14.2x from 15.1x, and FY26 will reduce to 12x from
from 13.6x.

However, the analysts also highlight risk to Ansell's underlying business, where destocking continues to be a headwind.

The Equal-weight rating and $24.14 target are maintained. Industry view In-Line. 

Target price is $24.14 Current Price is $23.89 Difference: $0.25
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Ansell is set to acquire Kimberly-Clarke's personal protective equipment business for -US$640m, with the purchase to be funded through a $400m private placement and a $65m share purchase plan, alongside a new US$377m debt facility.

According to Morgans, the acquisition should enhance Ansell's global position in attractive and complementary segments, enrich its service capacity, and generate economies of scale. 

The broker finds the multiple reasonable, but notes integration is not without risk. The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $25.61 from $22.53.

Target price is $25.61 Current Price is $23.89 Difference: $1.72
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Equal-weight (3) -

Overall employment services volumes continue to be depressed, highlights Morgan Stanley, following lower FY24 guidance by APM Human Services International.

Management now anticipates FY24 profit (UNPATA) of between $95-105m compared to the $114.5m previously expected by consensus. Prior expectations for positive 2H/4Q volume seasonality is no longer expected.

More positively, the stock is trading at a discount to private equity interest, notes Morgan Stanley. Madison Dearborn Partners has submitted a revised non-binding offer of $1.40/share.

Equal-weight rating. Target $1.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.25
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's standalone fair value for APM Human Services International has dropped to $2.00 (from $2.40) to now be in line with the broker's unchanged $2 target, after management downgraded underlying earnings and profit guidance.

The midpoints of guidance for earnings and profit imply to the broker management's 2H underlying earnings and profit guidance fell by -7% and -18%, respectively, compared with the 1H. The analyst trims Ord Minnett's long-term gross margin forecast to 28% from 29%.

The broker notes Madison Dearborn Partners has offered to acquire the 71% of shares it does not currently own for $1.40/share by way of scheme of arrangement, after CVC Asia Pacific withdrew its $2/share offer.

Ord Minnett ascribes a zero chance the current proposal will be successful as its unlikely non-Madison Dearborn Partners directors will unanimously recommend the transaction.

The Accumulate rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.85
If APM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APM as No Rating (-1) -

Historically low unemployment rates continue to weigh on APM Human Services International, explains UBS, following another earnings and profit downgrade.

Employment services flows remained depressed in February and March, notes the analyst, compared to the traditional bounce-back post the seasonally-softer December/January period.

The downgrades imply to the broker a second half EBITDA and NPATA miss against consensus forecasts of -14% and -27%, respectively.

UBS is on research restriction and therefore provides no rating or target price. The analyst's FY24-27 EPS forecasts fall by
-19%, -11%, -9% and -8%, respectively.

Current Price is $1.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy has announced a six month delay in the start up of the Waitsia operations, following a long list of delays and issues with the project, points out Bell Potter. 

The company now anticipates first gas by early 2025, and expects its share of capital expenditure to total -$600-650m rather than the previously guided -$450-500m. The delay could also result in unavoidable take-or-pay costs in FY25.

As per the broker, the joint venture is working through an updated schedule and cost estimate, but it expects there is now clarity on resolutions required to meet first gas in early 2025.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.19
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the 1H of FY25, and to a lesser extent the 2H of FY25, will potentially reveal reliability issues at Waitsia as quality issues in construction may continue to plague the project. 

The broker adopts this view following management's downgraded guidance for Waitsia capturing quality issues at the plant plus an expectation of further issues, which may not transpire.

It's noted the negative share price reaction was greater than Citi's entire 25cps Waitsia valuation.

FY24 capex guidance is unchanged but an additional -$150m capex net to Beach Energy is will likely be incurred in FY25.

Citi assumes a longer ramp-up at Waitsia and period of poor reliability as cascading quality issues may affect the time and cost to reach nameplate capacity.

Buy. Target $1.70, which appears to be -10c lower than the broker's prior target.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.09
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Beach Energy's 50%-owned Waitsia project in the Perth Basin has been delayed by six months, and capex guidance has been raised by 32% to -$600-650m.

Waitsia had been progressing well, Macquarie notes, yet new build quality issues were identified in pre-commissioning. The broker is disappointed this recalibrates expectations from the CEO review, however, believes yesterday's sell-off to be overdone.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating but acknowledges it will be difficult for the stock to perform now until Waitsia is on-stream. Target falls to $1.95 from $2.05.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.34
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

There has been a six-to-nine-month delay for Beach Energy's Waitsia Stage 2 after further equipment quality issues and safety system non-compliance, explains Morgan Stanley.

While negative for sentiment and free cash flow (FCF), the broker's investment thesis is unchanged.

First gas is now expected in early-2025, plus a further three months of ramp-up. Total capex guidance has increased to between -$600-650m from -$450-500m, with the additional spending mainly expected in FY25.

The Equal-weight rating is retained with a $1.79 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.79 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.18
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its Waitsia forecasts to reflect Beach Energy's increased capex guidance and delay of first gas by just over six months to between January and April of 2025.

A -15% share price fall in reaction to the news overstates the impact to valuation, in the broker's view. Despite some remaining uncertainty on the full scope of works, Waitsia Stage 2 reflects 27% of the analyst's revised $1.85 target, down from $1.95.

The Buy rating is maintained. It's noted Beach Energy is trading at the lowest implied oil price across the broker's coverage at US$61/bbl.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.24
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

During the March quarter, notes Macquarie, Challenger’s front book margins were impacted by decreasing credit spreads (-10bps) while annuity spreads increased (+8bps).

The premium of Challenger’s annuity rates relative to major bank deposit rates increased on a three-year basis, increasing the "relative" value proposition for customers, the broker suggests.

Macquarie has marked to market for quarter-end, raising its target to $7.00 from $6.80.

The broker continues to like the long-term (ageing population) thematic but remains cautious on short-term investment markets given the sensitivity to Challenger's investment portfolio. Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: $0.08
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.19, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CY5 as Buy (1) -

There is potential for Cygnus Metals' Auclair asset to host a substantial resource given recent drill results from the Pegasus discovery, says Shaw and Partners.

Assay results have revealed a highlight intersection totalling 43.7 metres at 1.15% lithium. The broker notes the width and grade are comparable to major lithium deposits in James Bay.

Price wise, the broker anticipates a slow upwards grind in lithium pricing into the end of the year. The Buy rating and target price of 50 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.445
If CY5 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 809% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi notes Yesterday's trading update by Elders reflected challenging conditions and subdued sentiment to start the year, partly due to the negative impact on demand of the declaration of El Nino from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Management noted pressure in crop protection, livestock and AgChem products, but stated trading conditions have improved in January and February.

FY24 guidance for underlying earnings (EBIT) of between $120-140m missed forecasts by consensus and the broker by -25% and -27%, respectively.

Despite a weaker 1H, the analyst is anticipating a more acute 2H skew than for prior years and suggests earnings growth building blocks are still intact. An uplift from bolt-on acquisitions and a cost-out program is still expected.

The broker's rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral based on improving momentum (established in the 2Q of FY24, after a subdued 1Q) and a 2H earnings skew. The target rises to $8.50 from $7.30.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.07
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's recent more positive view on Elders and seasonal turnaround prospects have proved too optimistic, the broker admits, as a first half drag from weaker cattle prices, lower agchem prices and margins was much larger than expected.

The broker has cut earnings forecasts by -33%, -9.5% and -6% for FY25-27.

The update is a reminder of challenges in the ag sector and inherent earnings volatility, Macquarie notes. Outperform nonetheless retained on El Nino ending and continued improvement in seasonal conditions.

Target falls to $8.25 from $10.45.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.82
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Elders is guiding to full year earnings of $120-140m following a challenging first half, with the guidance materially below consensus forecasts. Morgans points out the range suggests an -18-30% decline year-on-year.

Client sentiment was subdued, particularly in the first quarter, driving weak trading conditions over the first half, while lower crop protection prices have also hurt the company's sales revenue and margins.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target price increases to $9.00 from $7.40.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.57
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ELD as Buy (1) -

With the threat of an El Nino weather pattern behind it, Shaw and Partners notes outlooks for crops are much more positive than a recent bakwards-looking update from Elders might suggest.

The broker's forecasts for Elders account for both the challenging first half conditions, and also a more normal second half. The subdued market update results in a -22.5% decrease in expected earnings in FY24, but only a -3.5% decrease for FY25 and FY26.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.00 from $10.00.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.57
If ELD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LFG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi is Neutral on Australian Non-Bank Lenders given earnings have troughed and a fall in interest rates is inevitable, even though the timing is uncertain.

The broker notes stock specific opportunities have arisen following an around 20% share price rally across the sector in the last six months, due to the sector's strong correlation with interest rate expectations.

The analysts expect a pause in the re-rating of multiples for the sector as interest rate cut expectations held by the market have been deferred, but note credit growth continues to be resilient.

The broker notes a recent underperformance by shares in Liberty Financial, and upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral. A better environment for non-housing credit is also envisaged. The target rises to $4.25 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.31
If LFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

In a potential headwind for Nufarm, notes Citi , Elders ((ELD)) has flagged lower crop protection prices in Australia in the 1H of FY24.

However, feedback obtained by the broker suggests a surge in demand for Nufarm's products following high rainfall in the East Coast of Australia post-Christmas.

The analyst points out headwinds for Nufarm are progressively turning into tailwinds with potential upside to active ingredient pricing and improving demand levels underpinned by solid farmer economics.

Buy. Target $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.45
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Shares of Orica have rallied by around 18% in the last six months. Citi retains a constructive view on overall explosives demand, and highlights the company should benefit from the repricing of a key WA explosives supply agreement in FY26.

A recovery in FY26 is already incorporated into the current share price, in the analyst's view. To become more constructive, the broker would need to assume a more aggressive recovery in global commodity consumption demand over FY25/26. Neutral.

The broker's target rises to $19 from $18.50 on a valuation roll-forward, despite a trimmed ammonium nitrate volume forecast for FY24 due to weather impacts on coal production in NSW and QLD.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.91 Difference: $1.09
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Patriot Battery Metals has reported positive assay results from the remaining 20 drill holes completed in 2023 at its CV13 prospect within its Corvette project.

The company has also released assay results from its CV9 prospect which highlighted variably mineralised spodumene-bearing pegmatite intersections, albeit at lower grades than CV5/CV13.

Patriot remains Macquarie's preferred lithium explorer in its coverage universe. In the broker's view, Corvette could be an appealing M&A prospect. Outperform and $2.00 target retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $1.16
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 138% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPM as Neutral (3) -

Citi is Neutral on Australian Non-Bank Lenders given earnings have troughed and a fall in interest rates is inevitable, even though the timing is uncertain.

The broker notes stock specific opportunities have arisen following an around 20% share price rally across the sector in the last six months, due to the sector's strong correlation with interest rate expectations.

The analysts expect a pause in the re-rating of multiples for the sector as interest rate cut expectations held by the market have been deferred, but note credit growth continues to be resilient.

Shares in Pepper Money have increased by around 30% in the last six months, partly due to a greater indication of balance sheet discipline by management, suggests Citi. The Neutral rating and $1.55 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PSI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett applies a 15% corporate premium to its target for PSC Insurance due to potential strategic interest, which implies a FY25 PE multiple only slightly above the group's five-year historical average and international peers.

Over the broker's forecast period, new business and rising premium rates are expected to drive solid EPS growth.

In the near-term, claims inflation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events should maintain upward pressure on premium rates, according to the analysts.

The target rises to $6.20 from $5.40 and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.77
If PSI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.77, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

In a modest short-term negative for margin and profit, according to Citi, Qantas Airways is launching a new type of reward seat called “Classic plus”.

While the benefits were not quantified by management, management expects they will outweigh costs by the 1H of FY26. The company lowered Loyalty EBIT guidance to $500-525m for FY24 from $500-550m.

The broker's Neutral rating and $5.75 target are retained.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.06
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas Airways has launched its Classic Rewards Plus frequent flyer program, which attaches a minimum value of $0.01/point and quadruples availability, Macquarie notes, improving consumer confidence in the program.

The program is targeted towards the leisure market and is well-balanced to make more business class seats available for redemption, such as with upgrades to business, opines the broker.

It delivers positive brand investment in both the FF program and the airline. Qantas can now commence its buyback, which is also a near-term positive, the broker notes.

Outperform and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.31
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Updates to Qantas Airways' frequent flyer program will have only a neglible negative impact on near-term earnings, suggests Morgan Stanley, but longer-term attractiveness of the program to partners should be increased.

The Classic Plus program will increase the fair value of a frequent flyer point, suggests the broker.

Management's Loyalty guidance is for $500-525m of FY24 earnings (EBIT), down from $500-550m, with a negative impact on margins, but the company expects margins will be above 20% from FY25 onwards. The $800m-1bn target by FY30 is unchanged.

The broker's Overweight rating is reiterated with an unchanged $8 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $2.31
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAN as Add (1) -

Qantas Airways has announced an expansion of its Frequent Flyer program with the launch of its new flight rewards product, Classic Plus, giving participants access to a further 20m reward seats. 

Consequently, the airline has downgraded its full year loyalty earnings guidance to $500-525m, anticipating 10% growth in loyalty earnings in FY25.

Additionally, the airline will invest -$120m in Classic Plus in FY25, but this cost will fall within the -$230m already earmarked for customer investment in the coming year.

The Add rating and target price of $6.75 are retained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $1.06
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Hold (3) -

A revamp by Qantas Airways of the Frequent Flyer loyalty program effectively allows customers to redeem points at a largely higher value on a broader range of flights, explains Ord Minnett, though comes with a nominal price tag of -$120m.

The broker explains this cost (which is part of the previously flagged -$230m in customer investments) mostly derives from lower ticket revenue as customers redeem points, as well as an impairment in the fair value of future points sales.

Management also announced the commencement of its $448m buyback program.

The Hold rating and $6.10 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.41
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Management at Qantas Airways has downgraded FY24 Loyalty underlying earnings (EBIT) to $500-525m from $500-550m after announcing the new Qantas Frequent Flyer redemption option 'Classic Plus'.

The guidance change reflects one quarter's impact from the non-cash fair value impact, explains UBS.

Management noted the program change will cost around -$120m in FY25. The broker believes roughly half of this number is from foregone margin on seats (versus cash sale) and half from lower recognition of up-front marketing revenue.

The benefits of greater earnings and usage of frequent flyer points will outweigh the costs by the 1H of FY26, according to Qantas. The
long term Loyalty target of $0.8-1.0bn by FY30 is maintained.

The broker's target falls to $7.50 from $7.55. Buy.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $1.81
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Qoria to 48c from 34c after management received (and rejected) a non-binding offer of 40c/share from US-based K1 Investment Management.

Management feels the offer is opportunistic and fails to recognise the company's global leadership and growth prospects.

The broker suggests the 40c/share proposal by KI Investment Management is unlikely to be successful. The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.06
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria has received, and rejected, a takeover bid from US-based private investment firm K1, with the offer equating to 40 cents per share. The bidder already holds a 14.4% interest in Qoria, notes Shaw and Partners.

The Qoria board, which unanimoulsy rejected the bid, found the offer to significantly undervalue the company, and Shaw and Partners notes the 27% premium does appear low relative to other recent relevant tech transactions.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 52 cents from 40 cents.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.1
If QOR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Citi is Neutral on Australian Non-Bank Lenders given earnings have troughed and a fall in interest rates is inevitable, even though the timing is uncertain.

The broker notes stock specific opportunities have arisen following an around 20% share price rally across the sector in the last six months, due to the sector's strong correlation with interest rate expectations.

The analysts expect a pause in the re-rating of multiples for the sector as interest rate cut expectations held by the market have been deferred, but note credit growth continues to be resilient.

For Resimac Group, Citi remains cautious as it may be difficult to maintain a volume recovery in an ongoing competitive mortgage market.

The $1 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If RMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLR as Neutral (3) -

Silver Lake Resources has pre-announced March quarter sales 20% ahead of Macquarie, with cash and bullion build also ahead. With year to date sales being 81% of the top end of FY24 guidance, the broker now expects Silver Lake to record a modest beat.

Completion of the merger with Red 5 ((RED)), slated for June, is the key catalyst.

Target rises to $1.40 from $1.20, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.08
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources