Australian Broker Call
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March 06, 2026
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| LIC - | Lifestyle Communities | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| SGP - | Stockland | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| VCX - | Vicinity Centres | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $21.54
Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes Life360 is optimising for long-term growth, with revenue targets likely to be achieved well ahead of margin targets, suggesting management is prioritising market leadership.
Management is focusing on user and subscriber growth over price increases and remains willing to reinvest to expand its ecosystem, explain the analysts.
Initiatives such as pets, messaging, offers and elder care are viewed as opportunities to broaden family engagement and strengthen the platform’s long-term durability.
Morgan Stanley highlights the defensiveness of Life360’s platform, noting the company holds proprietary real-time location data for around 100m users. It's felt this would be difficult for AI inference models, agents or newly developed apps to replicate or displace.
Overweight. Target $50. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $21.54 Difference: $28.46
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.44, suggesting upside of 79.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 57.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4. |
Forecast for FY27:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 57.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of -5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.06
Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reiterates Outperform ratings for Ampol and Viva Energy ((VEA)), lifting the target price for Ampol to $36.00 from $32.50 while leaving Viva Energy’s $2.70 target unchanged.
The broker believes refining margins have surged due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, refinery outages in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and China’s temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports by state-owned enterprises.
These conditions are expected to support refining margins through 1H2026 and Macquarie notes both Ampol’s Lytton refinery and Viva’s Geelong refinery are currently operating at full capacity.
The broker forecasts 2026 refining margins above consensus for both companies, implying stronger earnings at the Lytton and Geelong refineries.
In terms of earnings (EBITDA) sensitivity, every US$1/bbl move over a year equates to around $50m for Ampol and $60m for Viva.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.06 Difference: $3.94
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.00, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 198.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 199.1, implying annual growth of 475.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY27:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 133.00 cents and EPS of 221.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.8, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $52.71
UBS rates ASX as Neutral (3) -
UBS maintains a Neutral rating on ASX with an unchanged $58.40 price target, seeing limited valuation appeal at current levels.
The broker notes February activity was mixed, with stronger cash equities turnover offset by weaker capital raising and more moderate futures volumes.
Average daily cash equity turnover increased about 23% y/y in February, which is attributed to higher market volatility and improved trading velocity.
However, capital raised on the exchange fell to about $4.1bn, down around -88% on the prior year, highlighting subdued listing and fundraising conditions.
Target price is $58.40 Current Price is $52.71 Difference: $5.69
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.96, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.7, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Forecast for FY27:
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.0, implying annual growth of 1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $55.15
UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
UBS highlights the Vicuna copper project, a 50:50 joint venture between BHP Group and Lundin Mining, as a potential multi-generational growth opportunity capable of producing around 700ktpa copper equivalent over more than 70 years.
The development is planned in three stages, with Stage 1 targeting first production from the Josemaria deposit in 2030 and requiring about -US$7.1bn of upfront capex.
The broker estimates project NPV at about US$22-US$27bn with an internal rate of return of 17%-19% using copper prices of US$5.0-US$5.5/lb and gold prices of US$4,500-US$5,000/oz.
UBS believes Vicuna offers significant long-term copper growth optionality, but maintains a Neutral rated given execution complexity, large capital requirements and the long-dated nature of the growth pipeline. Target GBP2.65.
Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $55.15 Difference: minus $3.15 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.58, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 225.51 cents and EPS of 374.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 341.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 200.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY27:
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 178.27 cents and EPS of 356.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.4, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.74
Macquarie rates BOE as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie points to expected 3Q FY26 production at Boss Energy's Honeymoon uranium project of 240-270klbs U308 following declining wellfield tenors and heavy rainfall that restricted site access and reagent deliveries.
Management has retained FY26 production guidance at 1.6Mlbs, which implies a stronger 4Q output of around 490-520klbs as new plant infrastructure and wellfields are brought online.
FY26 EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by -5% due to lower Honeymoon production but FY27 EPS forecasts lift by 3.9% reflecting lower operating cost assumptions.
Macquarie continues to view the Honeymoon ramp-up as challenging and believes uncertainties around resource scale and wider spaced leach trials remain underappreciated by the market.
Underperform. Target unchanged at $1.30.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY27:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 98.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BOE as Sell (5) -
Boss Energy has suspended output at Honeymoon because of wet weather impacts to road access. The company hopes to resume production on March 14.
March quarter drum production estimates have been reduced to 240-270,000lb uranium oxide although guidance for 1.6mlb has been retained for FY26.
Ord Minnett retains some concerns about the company's long-term investment case given poor continuity of mineralisation outside the re-start area that has rendered the original wellfield design and scheduling at Honeymoon uneconomic.
Sell rating and $1.50 target price.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 4.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY27:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 20.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 98.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAT CATAPULT SPORTS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $3.64
Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -
Bell Potter reduces its target price for Catapult Sports (March year-end) to $4.85 from $5.50 and reiterates a Buy rating following a review of forecasts.
The new estimates follow the reporting season for most other ASX-listed technology stocks and also takes account of currency movements.
The broker now uses a lower valuation multiple to its forecasts given the continued weakness/sell-off in technology stocks and raises the applied weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
FY26-28 annual contract value (ACV) forecasts reduced by -1%, -3% and -3%, respectively, driving similar reductions to revenue forecasts. Both estimates remain modestly above consensus levels.
Catapult is the broker's preferred mid-cap technology exposure. New products and acquisitions are expected to support strong top-line growth, though increased investment could present a risk.
Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $1.21
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 43.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY27:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $21.15
Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley had expected ASX-listed REITs to enter a period in which asset-heavy, rent-collecting stocks would trade at or above 1x price to net tangible assets as asset values strengthened.
While asset values have begun to gain momentum, the broker believes recent interest rate movements may have delayed the anticipated re-rating.
Under the analysts' coverage, fund managers Centuria Capital and Charter Hall remain the preferred exposures.
Target $27.75 for Charter Hall. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $27.75 Current Price is $21.15 Difference: $6.6
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.16, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.60 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.1, implying annual growth of 111.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY27:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 53.70 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CHC as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett reviews its property sector coverage following the reporting season.
For Charter Hall, the broker notes a -4.4 percentage point decline in funds management earnings (EBITDA) margin to 68.8%, leading to modest margin forecast downgrades.
Operating earnings are still expected to grow at around a 10% compound annual rate over FY26-29.
Buy rating maintained. Target price is lowered to $25.10 from $25.50.
Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $21.15 Difference: $3.95
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.16, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.1, implying annual growth of 111.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CNI CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP
Diversified Financials
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Overnight Price: $1.77
Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley had expected ASX-listed REITs to enter a period in which asset-heavy, rent-collecting stocks would trade at or above 1x price to net tangible assets as asset values strengthened.
While asset values have begun to gain momentum, the broker believes recent interest rate movements may have delayed the anticipated re-rating.
Under the analysts' coverage, fund managers Centuria Capital and Charter Hall remain the preferred exposures.
For Centuria Capital the target is $2.40. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.63
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $3.95
Citi rates EDV as Buy (1) -
Following a further review of Endeavour Group's interim results, Citi raises its target by 20c to $4.30, after incorporating lower earnings forecasts, and maintains a Buy rating.
The analyst sees potential for improved performance with execution expected to be enhanced under the new CEO. Accordingly, Citi applies a 10% premium to its ASX100 PE relative valuation.
A summary of the broker's initial research yesterday follows.
At first glance, Citi notes Endeavour Group's 1H26 result was largely in line, with many metrics already pre-released on January 13.
In terms of positives, the group has stopped announcing quarterly updates, which is considered favourable for eliminating more short-term noise around operational performance. Online sales growth was 35% for 1H26, of which 2Q26 generated 47% growth.
Current consensus forecast for FY26 gross margin compression is viewed as not high enough at around -61bps, with Citi's own estimate at circa -70bps, and 1H26 compression at -84bps, during which time reduced shelf pricing was not always active.
Earnings forecasts are expected to be trimmed post result due to lower sales and retail gross margins. Looking through the near term, the broker update sees medium term upside from the new CEO's turnaround.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.35
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates EDV as Lighten (4) -
Endeavour Group delivered a reduction of -5.4% in first half underlying EBIT with Ord Minnett noting a slide in retail earnings outweighed the 5% increase in EBIT from hotels. The interim dividend also fell short of forecasts.
The broker considers the results, and those from the liquor division of Coles ((COL)), indicative of the tough outlook facing the alcohol industry as consumers, especially younger demographics, consume less as the focus on healthier lifestyles intensifies.
Given the issues are structural, not cyclical, broker finds it difficult to envisage how Endeavour Group can boost earnings without buying market share through lower prices, which in turn "crunches" gross margins that already are under pressure.
Lighten retained. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $3.00.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of -8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY27:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FDV FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $0.25
Bell Potter rates FDV as Buy (1) -
Bell Potter reduces its target price for Frontier Digital Ventures to $0.46 from $0.58 and reiterates a Speculative Buy rating following 2025 results.
Revenue of $54.8m missed the broker’s $61.2m forecast and company guidance of $60-63m. On the other hand, earnings (EBITDA) of $5.5m exceeded guidance of $3.3-4.3m and Bell Potter’s $4.2m estimate due to stronger margins.
LATAM region revenue fell -25% on the prior year and Asia declined -15%, while the MENA region grew 12%, with margin expansion reflecting the exit of low or negative-margin revenue streams, the analysts explain.
2026 and 2027 profit forecasts weaken by -40% and -24%, respectively, to reflect lower growth assumptions and regional risks.
Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.21
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY27:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.46
Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley had expected ASX-listed REITs to enter a period in which asset-heavy, rent-collecting stocks would trade at or above 1x price to net tangible assets as asset values strengthened.
While asset values have begun to gain momentum, the broker believes recent interest rate movements may have delayed the anticipated re-rating.
Under the analysts' coverage, fund managers Centuria Capital and Charter Hall remain the preferred exposures.
The broker reiterates an Equal-weight rating on HMC Capital with its target price at $3.35. Industry View: In-Line. It's felt the REIT's reliance on public market inflows may limit its leverage to an upswing in real estate valuations relative to peers.
Morgan Stanley also highlights potential downside risk to valuations within the Healthcare portfolio, as flagged in recent results, and notes limited visibility on the data centre development pipeline.
Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.89
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 51.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of -22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
INA INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP
Aged Care & Seniors
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Overnight Price: $4.32
Ord Minnett rates INA as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
The target for Ingenia Communities rises to $5.00 from $4.95 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.68
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LIC LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $4.73
Ord Minnett rates LIC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
The target for Lifestyle Communities rises to $5.35 from $5.10 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $0.62
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 21.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.87
Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season. For Lendlease Group, the broker broker reduces operating earnings forecasts sharply.
FY26-28 operating EPS estimates fall by -43.9%, -35.7% and -13.9% respectively, reflecting higher cost assumptions for the capital release unit and expectations that asset sales will occur below book value.
While higher funds management and investment earnings provide some offset, the broker feels Lendlease still faces risk around asset valuations. Elevated gearing is also expected to weigh as management restructures toward a more domestically focused business.
Target falls to $4.50 from $4.95. Hold rating maintained.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.63
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 37.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.09
Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Following a review of sector conditions and peer reporting, Bell Potter reiterates a Buy rating on Nufarm (September year-end) and maintains its target price of $3.60.
Improving sector fundamentals are highlighted, with average selling prices down -2% on the prior year, volumes up 2% and the gross margin improving by 120bps.
Trade flows indicate to the analysts firm demand, with imports into key Nufarm markets rising 11% year-on-year, while omega-3 pricing indicators have strengthened.
Bell Potter expects H1 FY26 to continue the margin recovery seen in H2 FY25 and anticipates improved omega-3 earnings supported by firmer pricing indicators. FY26-28 profit forecasts are reduced by -3%, -2% and -1% respectively due to a stronger Australian dollar.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $1.51
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY27:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 68.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.86
UBS rates NXG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
UBS initiates coverage on NexGen Energy with a Buy rating and a $21.00 price target.
The Rook I project in Saskatchewan is viewed as a tier-1 uranium asset with significant scale and leverage to higher uranium prices due to NexGen’s largely uncontracted future production.
First production is expected in 2033 and steady-state sales of about 20mlbs per year from 2034, noting this is more conservative than company targets but still positions the project as a meaningful global supply contributor, the analyst explains.
Rook I approvals are anticipated in 1H2026 followed by updated capex estimates, a construction decision and project development toward first production later in the decade.
UBS believes valuation support comes from long-term uranium market deficits and project quality, although risks include permitting timelines, funding requirements and potential capex escalation
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $17.86 Difference: $3.14
If NXG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus 0.12 cents. |
Forecast for FY27:
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of minus 0.14 cents. |
This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.83
Ord Minnett rates SGP as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
For Stockland, the broker upgrades to Buy from Accumulate with its target price unchanged at $5.90, noting the share price has fallen -16% year to date.
The stock is trading on a price to net tangible assets multiple of around 1.1x, which Ord Minnett views as attractive given the quality of earnings and growth prospects.
The residential development portfolio is expected to generate a post-tax FY26 operating margin above 15%, implying a return on invested capital of around 11%.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $1.07
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -
Citi compares the potential implications for Woodside Energy and Santos from further supply disruptions stemming from the US/Israel-Iran conflict.
While both companies benefit from elevated crude prices, Woodside is more leveraged to spot LNG pricing, explains the broker.
Santos has greater oil exposure through its contracted LNG portfolio and liquids sales, which account for around 90% of total sales.
The broker estimates the Woodside share price implies oil of around US$65/bbl, compared with US$59/bbl for Santos.
For Santos, target $7.00 and Buy rating. Neutral for Woodside.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 48.76 cents and EPS of 45.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 48.76 cents and EPS of 56.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.33
Ord Minnett rates VCX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
The target for Vicinity Centres is kept at $2.50 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.17
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of -32.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY27:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.07
UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -
UBS believes refining margins in Asia are rising sharply following disruption to crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, creating upside earnings risk for Viva Energy's Geelong refinery.
China may temporarily restrict refined product exports, which could further tighten regional supply and support higher product cracks and refining margins.
Commentary suggests 1Q26 Geelong refining margins could reach about US$10.7/bbl, roughly 14% above consensus, adding around $20m to quarterly refining earnings (EBITDA).
UBS also expects the outcome of the Fuel Security Services Payment review to raise the refinery margin support threshold by about $3.50–4/bbl, providing additional downside protection while allowing upside from stronger margins.
Buy rated. Target $2.40.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.33
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY27:
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $30.45
Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -
Citi compares the potential implications for Woodside Energy and Santos from further supply disruptions stemming from the US/Israel-Iran conflict.
While both companies benefit from elevated crude prices, Woodside is more leveraged to spot LNG pricing, explains the broker.
Santos has greater oil exposure through its contracted LNG portfolio and liquids sales, which account for around 90% of total sales.
The broker estimates the Woodside share price implies oil of around US$65/bbl, compared with US$59/bbl for Santos.
For Woodside Energy, target $28 and Neutral rating. Buy for Santos.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $30.45 Difference: minus $2.45 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.78, suggesting downside of -9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 124.94 cents and EPS of 155.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 155.42 cents and EPS of 193.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| ALD | Ampol | $30.96 | Macquarie | 36.00 | 32.50 | 10.77% |
| CAT | Catapult Sports | $3.98 | Bell Potter | 4.85 | 5.50 | -11.82% |
| CHC | Charter Hall | $20.93 | Ord Minnett | 25.10 | 23.40 | 7.26% |
| CNI | Centuria Capital | $1.81 | Morgan Stanley | 2.40 | 2.51 | -4.38% |
| CQE | Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT | $2.78 | Ord Minnett | 3.25 | 3.30 | -1.52% |
| DGT | DigiCo Infrastructure REIT | $2.03 | Ord Minnett | 3.60 | 3.85 | -6.49% |
| EDV | Endeavour Group | $3.93 | Ord Minnett | 2.90 | 3.00 | -3.33% |
| FDV | Frontier Digital Ventures | $0.26 | Bell Potter | 0.46 | 0.57 | -19.30% |
| GMG | Goodman Group | $27.78 | Ord Minnett | 29.15 | 31.25 | -6.72% |
| GPT | GPT Group | $4.80 | Ord Minnett | 5.45 | 5.35 | 1.87% |
| HMC | HMC Capital | $2.53 | Morgan Stanley | 3.35 | 3.85 | -12.99% |
| INA | Ingenia Communities | $4.29 | Ord Minnett | 5.00 | 5.30 | -5.66% |
| LIC | Lifestyle Communities | $4.78 | Ord Minnett | 5.35 | 5.60 | -4.46% |
| LLC | Lendlease Group | $3.83 | Ord Minnett | 4.50 | 4.95 | -9.09% |
| MGR | Mirvac Group | $1.91 | Ord Minnett | 2.15 | 2.25 | -4.44% |
| SCG | Scentre Group | $3.63 | Ord Minnett | 3.95 | 4.10 | -3.66% |
| VCX | Vicinity Centres | $2.31 | Ord Minnett | 2.50 | 2.40 | 4.17% |
Summaries
| 360 | Life360 | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $21.54 |
| ALD | Ampol | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.06 |
| ASX | ASX | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $52.71 |
| BHP | BHP Group | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $55.15 |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.74 |
| Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.74 | ||
| CAT | Catapult Sports | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $3.64 |
| CHC | Charter Hall | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $21.15 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $21.15 | ||
| CNI | Centuria Capital | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.77 |
| EDV | Endeavour Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.95 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.95 | ||
| FDV | Frontier Digital Ventures | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.25 |
| HMC | HMC Capital | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.46 |
| INA | Ingenia Communities | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.32 |
| LIC | Lifestyle Communities | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.73 |
| LLC | Lendlease Group | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.87 |
| NUF | Nufarm | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.09 |
| NXG | NexGen Energy | Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $17.86 |
| SGP | Stockland | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.83 |
| STO | Santos | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.32 |
| VCX | Vicinity Centres | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.33 |
| VEA | Viva Energy | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.07 |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $30.45 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 12 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 6 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 06 March 2026
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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