Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley prefers AGL Energy over Origin Energy on both a valuation and commodity exposure basis.

Moving into Spring, NEM prices are stable and demand is lifting as weather stabilises, but the analyst envisages potential risks around reliability and water shortages.

A proxy for data centre demand is NSW night demand, which is up 77MW year-to-date on the prior year.

At current household battery installation rates, household batteries could reach 15GW/21GWh by 2030, which could pose a risk to utility-scale battery earnings for both AGL and Origin.

Target $9.68. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.68 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $1.45
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley views the CEO Strategy Update on October 13 for ANZ Bank as a key event for the stock, with the analyst highlighting that Australian banks have historically not announced key performance targets.

The new CEO, Nuno Matos, ex HSBC, is acquainted with target setting, as HSBC provides them and guidance.

New cost targets could be announced at the update, Morgan Stanley believes, as well as consideration around a medium-term return on equity target.

The analyst views the potential efforts to "reinvigorate" the retail banking franchise, reduce costs, and improve return on equity as difficult due to a competitive domestic market and sticky cost inflation.

ANZ Bank's target price is $29.30. Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $33.29 Difference: minus $3.99 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.27, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Boab Metals has rallied to a two-year high following the move higher in silver. Silver has broken through US$40/oz, and momentum suggests further upside.

The broker believes silver needs to rise to US$52/oz to re-establish its long-term relationship with gold, at 70x versus 89x currently. Strong demand outlook for solar panels is also supportive.

As a result, the broker sees further upside for the company as it brings the Sorby Hills project into production.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.175
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Bannerman Energy signed its first uranium offtake agreements with two Tier 1 US utilities, marking a project validation milestone and de-risking development of the Etango project, Shaw and Partners highlights.

The total volume is 1Mlb uranium over five years starting 2029, and is structured as base price contracts with escalation provisions. The company said the base price is broadly reflective of the current long-term uranium price of around US$81/lb.

With Etango fully permitted, scalable, and timed to meet a global supply crunch, the broker believes the company is strategically positioned for the uranium super-cycle.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $1.47
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths may benefit from potential policy changes in Brazil, Citi notes, with the government considering relaxing restrictions on uranium mining.

Current rules see the State retain 100% of uranium revenues, but reports suggest a move to a 20% profit-share model.

The company's Monte Alto project contains uranium by-product grading 0.2%, which could add around $60m per year in revenue if changes are enacted. Citi models this at 55c per share to net asset value (NAV), based on recovery assumptions.

Brazil plans to auction uranium leases and buy U3O8 domestically, as exports remain banned. While uncertainty remains until a November decree, the broker expects official confirmation would be a positive catalyst for Brazilian Rare Earths.

Citi maintains a Speculative Buy rating with a $6.30 target price.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $3.15
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Brazilian used vehicle sales rose 20% year-on-year in August, Citi notes, following 17% in July and 14% across the second half to date.

The broker sees year-to-date FY26 growth of 19% as a strong start, supporting the analysts' forecast for 23% constant currency growth for Webmotors in FY26.

The new IOF tax, (a tax on Financial Transactions), is having no effect on volumes, highlights Citi, with management also indicating no impact on Webmotors given its SME and corporate focus.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a $42.55 target price.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $39.46 Difference: $3.09
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.14, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi expects competition among Australian banks to remain rational, with strategies focused on transaction deposit-led growth and data-driven lending.

The broker notes this is increasingly commoditised, shifting the competitive edge towards innovation, technology and service rather than price.

Concerns about irrational competition in business lending are overstated, in the analysts' view, with pricing data showing stability. Citi adds banks appear cautious about repeating the margin erosion seen in mortgages.

The broker remains Underweight the sector on valuation, though highlights resilient credit growth and a stable net interest margin (NIM) outlook as supporting fundamentals.

The Sell rating and $110 target are maintained for CommBank.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $168.14 Difference: minus $58.14 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $114.93, suggesting downside of -31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Following on from FY25 results, Macquarie downgrades Codan to Neutral from Outperform.

****

Codan reported a robust FY25 earnings beat according to Macquarie, with net profit after tax 5% better than expected and 4% above consensus.

Revenue also beat by 5% versus consensus, a rise of 23% on the prior year with good organic growth and the Kagwerks acquisition.

Metal detection revenue lifted 16% on the prior year with a 310bps rise in the margin. FY26 communications revenue guidance is 15%-20% with a long-term 10%-15% growth rate. Metal detection will be supported by four new products and good West African conditions.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts by 14% for FY26 and 12% for FY27. Target price rises 60% to $27.15 from $17 due to the upgrade in earnings estimates, with smaller rises in outer year forecasts.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $27.15 Current Price is $30.77 Difference: minus $3.62 (current price is over target).
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.18, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNU as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Chorus has outperformed the NZX50 by 12% year-to-date, compared to Spark New Zealand ((SPK)), which has underperformed by -13%, and the company is screening as expensive.

For Chorus investors, the key aspect surrounds any change in its dividend policy if S&P changes its rating criteria for a BBB rating, which could happen later in 2025, according to the analyst.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating and target at NZ$9.25.

Current Price is $8.91. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

CSL's plan to spin off Seqirus into a separately listed business has been reviewed by Ord Minnett, which estimates a valuation range of $4–12bn on equity and $5–14bn on an enterprise value basis.

The broker notes limited disclosure on Seqirus, uncertainty around cost structures as a standalone company, and a lack of directly comparable peers.

The broker believes Seqirus could enter the ASX100 but would fall short of the top 50. The strategic case for the spin-off is questioned, with shareholder approval remaining uncertain and the move complicating the overall investment case for CSL.

The analyst also has concerns around revenue growth and the timing of Behring margin recovery.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating with a $258.00 target price.

Target price is $258.00 Current Price is $209.25 Difference: $48.75
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' FY25 underlying EBITDA was -2% below Macquarie's forecast and -1% below consensus, but underlying net profit was 2% higher.

The broker describes the net profit outcome as slightly positive but notes the slowing sales trend. Same-store sales growth fell -0.9% y/y in FY26 to-date vs -1.3% y/y. 

The bigger worry is likely further slowing as the company tests a new pricing strategy which focuses on margin and profitability vs sales, a reversal of the recent trend. The plan is to transition to everyday low pricing and a simplified menu.

The broker reckons long-term the pivot makes sense, but execution risk is high, and near-term earnings are vulnerable as sales adjust. FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -3%, FY26 unchanged and FY28 lifted by 6%.

Neutral. Target cut to $15.30 from $18.40.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $14.65 Difference: $0.65
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.08, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ERD as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the NZ government is transitioning from fuel excise duty (paid at the pump) to electronic Road User Charging (eRUC), and Eroad is well placed to capture the eRUC market share.

The share price has rallied since August 6, reflecting the base case assumption of a phased rollout from FY28, with a 33% market share and NZ$3.50 ARPU/month.

For context, the current NZTA admin fee is NZ$30/year, and competitor devices (used by heavy vehicles currently) charge over NZ$20/month, although they offer additional features beyond eRUC.

Target lifted to $2.70 from $1.80 to factor in additional upside from the eRUC opportunity beyond the base case. Buy, High Risk retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.41
If ERD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysed Guidewire's results for its implications for Fineos Corp, noting the initial FY26 guidance is for 22% annual recurring revenue growth and 52% rise in operating cash flow.

In FY25, Guidewire's annual recurring revenue grew 19%, revenue rose 23% and cashflow margin was 25%, beating the top end of guidance.

The broker reckons Guidewire's strong subscription-driven growth and profitability highlights the potential path for Fineos but also underscore the current gap.

Fineos trades at a steep discount, justified by its slower growth and heavier R&D capitalisation, but offers optionality if execution on cloud transition accelerates, the broker believes.

No change to forecasts. Target rises to $3.48 from $3.29 on reduction in discount to Guidewire to -65% from -70%.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.35
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GHM as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiated coverage of Golden Horse Minerals with a Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 81c.

The Western Australian company focuses on the development of its Hopes Hill project, located 6km north of the historic gold mining town of Southern Cross. The broker highlights it has strong exploration momentum and near-term catalysts.

Recent drilling delivered broad, high-grade gold intercepts, and the project has the benefit of existing infrastructure, including access to major sealed roads, a rail network, grid power and reliable water supply.

Maiden resource is expected in 1H2026, and ongoing catalysts include exploration updates.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.34
If GHM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the August earnings season was supportive for stocks in the Real Estate space, with retail, residential, self-storage, datacentres and industrial exposures showing strong operating momentum.

The broker highlights falling cap rates, which are driving higher valuations and strengthening balance sheets.

The analysts remain constructive on stocks with genuine growth, underpinned by strategically located assets, favourable supply-demand dynamics and solid fundamentals, even though interest rate cuts may be at risk.

Citi's top picks under reserach coverage are Goodman Group, Stockland, Scentre Group and National Storage REIT.

The Buy rating and $40 target are kept for Goodman Group.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.48 Difference: $6.52
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes investor concern that insurers’ share prices could weaken as premium rate growth slows and the cycle softens, particularly in property if the US hurricane season is mild.

The broker argues this view is too bearish, as earnings should remain resilient in the near term.

The analysts observe terms and conditions are holding, with early signs of stabilisation in classes such as Directors and Officers liability insurance and cyber, though further evidence is required.

Citi also believes insurers can absorb modest interest rate declines given margin flexibility and alternative levers.

The Buy rating and $10.00 target are kept for Insurance Australia Group.

Among general insurers under coverage, the broker's order of preference is QBE Insurance, Insurance Australia Group, and then Suncorp Group.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $1.31
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates research coverage on externally managed infrastructure holding company Infratil with a NZ$14.10 target and Buy rating.

Infratil has a greater than NZ$18bn portfolio concentrated in data centres and renewables, offering favourable exposure to growth infrastructure with embedded cash flow and value upside, suggest the analysts.

The external manager, HRL Morrison, has delivered around 17% annual returns over 30 years, above the 11-15% rolling 10-year target, observes Citi.

The broker sees particular upside in Canberra Data Centres (CDC), which trades below Australian peers despite a larger secured pipeline.

It's also thought US-based renewable developer, owner and operator Longroad Energy and Singapore-headquartered renewable platform Gurin Energy help underpin further renewable growth.

Infratil is trading at a -30% discount to its historic price-to-NAV multiple, highlights the broker, providing an attractive entry point. 

Current Price is $10.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Lunnon Metals is in the final stage of negotiations with Gold Fields to treat the ore from Lady Herial at their St Ives gold plant.

If successful, the broker estimates $34m EBITDA in 2026 based on its revised gold price forecast of US$4,000/oz.

The broker reminds the company offers a rare dual-commodity play, with near-term leverage to record gold prices and long-term exposure to nickel recovery.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 75c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.47
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 168% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOT as Outperform (1) -

Lotus Resources has completed its $65m equity raising at 19c per share, with Kayelekera's first shipments targeted by the end of 2025.

Macquarie believes there will be a rise in working capital needs over the upcoming 2-3 quarters as inventories rise in Malawi and finished goods are placed on the road to Dar es Salaam and on the water to the US before any cash is received from customers.

Management is continuing to negotiate working capital facilities, which is taking longer than anticipated.

The analyst lifts FY25 EPS by 1% for slight cost adjustments, while the FY26 EPS forecast falls -93% on a slower ramp-up at Kayelekera and -11% for FY27.

Target price falls -25.7% to 26c from increased equity dilution and higher capex, with a slower production/revenue ramp.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.075
If LOT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Post its $750m placement, Bell Potter highlights Lynas Rare Earths has $902m in liquidity, which should facilitate management acting on its 'Towards 2030' strategy of generating returns through optimising the Lynas 2025 strategy, ramping up capacity for existing demand, and expanding resource and scale.

Bell Potter notes details on expansion into the downstream ex-China metal & magnets sector remain vague. The analyst interprets Seadrift as delayed until the US Government announces funding, which will extend 1.5ktpa in NdPr processing capacity.

The company also highlighted FY25 results with increased depreciation resulting in an earnings miss.

Target price rises to $9.35 from $7.65. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $14.35 Difference: minus $5 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has resumed coverage of Lynas Rare Earths following a period of research restriction, with a Neutral rating and target price of $14.50.

The broker notes the company's five-year plan "Towards 2030" materially extends mine life, boosts NdPr capacity, and strategically positions the company across the ex-China supply chain into magnets and metals. 

The plan will be funded by the recent $750m placement and $75m share purchase plan currently underway.

Overall, the positive impact of the plan more than offsets the dilutive impact from the capital raise, with 9% rise in FY26 EPS forecast and 36-46% over FY27-30.

Neutral. Target price $14.50 (was $9 before research restriction).

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.35 Difference: $0.15
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights prior market concern (ahead of results) health insurers could face rising payout ratios. The broker notes these fears appear overstated, with optimism building that industry players will collaborate to improve system settings.

The analysts exposure through nib Holdings, citing its significant price-to-earnings discount to Medibank Private. Citi acknowledges Medibank Private's strong position but considers the stock fully valued.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and $5.05 target for Medibank Private.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights prior market concern (ahead of results) health insurers could face rising payout ratios. The broker notes these fears appear overstated, with optimism building that industry players will collaborate to improve system settings.

The analysts exposure through nib Holdings, citing its significant price-to-earnings discount to Medibank Private. Citi acknowledges Medibank Private's strong position but considers the stock fully valued.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $8.90 target for nib Holdings.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $1.53
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the August earnings season was supportive for stocks in the Real Estate space, with retail, residential, self-storage, datacentres and industrial exposures showing strong operating momentum.

The broker highlights falling cap rates, which are driving higher valuations and strengthening balance sheets.

The analysts remain constructive on stocks with genuine growth, underpinned by strategically located assets, favourable supply-demand dynamics and solid fundamentals, even though interest rate cuts may be at risk.

Citi's top picks under reserach coverage are Goodman Group, Stockland, Scentre Group and National Storage REIT.

The Buy rating and $2.80 target are kept for National Storage REIT.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.36
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

In a trading update, management at Orica reiterated its belief FY25 earnings will grow across all divisions, Citi notes, with Blasting Solutions, Digital Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals driving momentum.

Completion of the Winnemucca upgrades should aid Specialty Mining from FY26, highlight the analysts, while Digital Solutions is well placed to benefit from stronger exploration activity.

Specialty Mining Chemicals is supported by new cyanide and emulsifier contracts with solid manufacturing performance, points out the broker.

No change to to net finance and capex guidance, while D&A is now likely to be at the lower half of the previous guidance range.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $20.65 target.

Target price is $20.65 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.52, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Orica's trading update as mixed, with positive trading momentum in value-add products and services in the 1H continuing into 2H. This was partly offset by softer coal-related demand in Indonesia and North America.

The broker trimmed FY25 EBIT forecast by -0.5%, with 48:52 skew in 1H:2H, as lower corporate costs are offset by weaker Indonesian and US coal volumes. In FY26, the broker expects APA EBIT growth of 2% as weaker coal volumes are offset by lower corporate costs.

The broker sees medium-term upside from Cyanco and balance sheet optimisation, with FY26 regarded as a key year for Cyanco delivery as turnaround initiatives come to an end.

Outperform. Target rises to $22.71 from $21.28.

Target price is $22.71 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $1.7
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.52, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica is due to report FY25 results on November 13, with the latest trading update coming in stronger than expected, according to Morgans, and the company appears in place to achieve another robust earnings report.

Improved performance across all three divisions has been retained in 2H25, with earnings typically skewed to this period. The analyst flags a circa 48%/52% 1H25/2H25 skew, with underlying net profit after tax forecast to rise 28% on FY24.

Management is expected to maintain robust outlook commentary, with digital solutions aiming for double-digit earnings growth over the next few years, and speciality mining chemicals should also report double-digit earnings growth.

Morgans lifts earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 0.7% and 1.3% for FY25/FY26. Target price rises to $24.76 from $21.70. Buy rated.

Target price is $24.76 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $3.75
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.52, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual's FY25 revenue beat consensus by 0.5% and Macquarie's forecast by 0.8% aided by $18m asset management performance fees in 2H. Underlying EPS was 4.5% ahead of the broker's estimate.

The asset manager reiterated its $70-80m cost-out target by FY27, noting it is tracking ahead of plan and expects to incur a lower cost of -$55m (was -$70-75m before) to achieve these savings.

Overall, the broker regards the FY25 result as solid, with momentum building into FY26–28. The Wealth sale remains a key medium-term catalyst.

Neutral. Target price $22.85.

Target price is $22.85 Current Price is $19.93 Difference: $2.92
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.05, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi notes investor concern that insurers’ share prices could weaken as premium rate growth slows and the cycle softens, particularly in property if the US hurricane season is mild.

The broker argues this view is too bearish, as earnings should remain resilient in the near term.

The analysts observe terms and conditions are holding, with early signs of stabilisation in classes such as Directors and Officers liability insurance and cyber, though further evidence is required.

Citi also believes insurers can absorb modest interest rate declines given margin flexibility and alternative levers.

The Buy rating and $26.20 target are kept for QBE Insurance.

Among general insurers under coverage, the broker's order of preference is QBE Insurance, Insurance Australia Group, and then Suncorp Group.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $21.62 Difference: $4.58
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the August earnings season was supportive for stocks in the Real Estate space, with retail, residential, self-storage, datacentres and industrial exposures showing strong operating momentum.

The broker highlights falling cap rates, which are driving higher valuations and strengthening balance sheets.

The analysts remain constructive on stocks with genuine growth, underpinned by strategically located assets, favourable supply-demand dynamics and solid fundamentals, even though interest rate cuts may be at risk.

Citi's top picks under reserach coverage are Goodman Group, Stockland, Scentre Group and National Storage REIT.

The Buy rating and $4.60 target are kept for Scentre Group.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.54
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

Sims' FY25 results came in above expectations, with North American margins and non-ferrous stronger than anticipated, according to Morgan Stanley.

Management offered mixed commentary: non-ferrous demand is expected to remain robust, and US ferrous demand is boosted by tariffs. There is ongoing pressure on global ferrous prices from high China steel exports.

The analyst liked the rise in North American margins by 3.4ppts to 20.9%, due to the shift to margins over volume growth.

Sustaining capex rose to -$183m and growth capex to -$18m. Management guided sustaining capex to -$120m-$140m for FY26, which management considers a more sustainable level.

Morgan Stanley lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -19% for FY26 and -6% for FY27, due to lower EBIT margins.

Target price is cut to $12.50 from $13. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $13.95 Difference: minus $1.45 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the August earnings season was supportive for stocks in the Real Estate space, with retail, residential, self-storage, datacentres and industrial exposures showing strong operating momentum.

The broker highlights falling cap rates, which are driving higher valuations and strengthening balance sheets.

The analysts remain constructive on stocks with genuine growth, underpinned by strategically located assets, favourable supply-demand dynamics and solid fundamentals, even though interest rate cuts may be at risk.

Citi's top picks under reserach coverage are Goodman Group, Stockland, Scentre Group and National Storage REIT.

The Buy rating and $6.90 target are kept for Stockland.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $0.68
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SPK as Buy (1) -

Spark New Zealand reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA), which met UBS' expectations, with a FY25 dividend of NZD25c per share. This was in line with guidance and higher than the analyst's forecast of NZD17c and consensus at NZD23c.

Costs rose slightly above forecasts and 6% above the prior year, with some costs lower via partnership agreements. Mobile services revenue declined by -2%, with the enterprise & government (E&G) sector falling -17% and consumer down -1%, due to a change in insurance with an impact on ARPU.

Notably, E&G was better than feared, and some signs of the market stabilised occurred in 2H25. Spark sold 75% of Data Centre Co for an implied EV of NZ$605m, with a larger-than-expected stake divested.

UBS retains a Buy rating and believes the stock will be able to re-rate to circa 7x EV/EBITDA from 6x EV/EBITDA as the NZ economy improves, the E&G mobile market becomes more rational, and it increases its return on invested capital above 10%.

The September 11 investor day is expected to reveal more insights. Target NZ$3.50, down from NZ$3.75 prior to result.

Current Price is $2.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes investor concern that insurers’ share prices could weaken as premium rate growth slows and the cycle softens, particularly in property if the US hurricane season is mild.

The broker argues this view is too bearish, as earnings should remain resilient in the near term.

The analysts observe terms and conditions are holding, with early signs of stabilisation in classes such as Directors and Officers liability insurance and cyber, though further evidence is required.

Citi also believes insurers can absorb modest interest rate declines given margin flexibility and alternative levers.

The Neutral rating and $22.10 target are kept for Suncorp Group.

Among general insurers under coverage, the broker's order of preference is QBE Insurance, Insurance Australia Group, and then Suncorp Group.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $21.21 Difference: $0.89
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.73, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie comments the highlight of Temple & Webster's FY25 result was strong customer metrics, with active customers up 16% y/y to a record 1.27m. Net promoter score improved to a record 63% from 61% in FY24, and repeat customer orders rose 20% y/y.

On the disappointing end was a -8% miss to Macquarie's forecast for FY25 net profit, and while revenue rose 21% y/y, this still fell marginally short of the broker's estimate.

The broker notes sales momentum is accelerating into FY26 and is forecasting revenue growth of 28% y/y. The company reaffirmed its medium-term annual sales target of over $1bn.

Outperform. Target lifted to $31.30 from $17.60.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $22.82 Difference: $8.48
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.22, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources