Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses a "decent" 1Q for Amcor with EPS accounting for 22% of the broker's FY24 forecast. Volume declines were mitigated by cost-out initiatives.

The broker expects ongoing volume softness at a similar level in the 2Q due to weak end-consumer demand and cautious ordering from Amcor's customers.

The EBIT and EPS metrics beat consensus forecasts by 1% and 7%, respectively, helped along by a lower-than-expected interest cost, explains the analyst.

Neutral rating retained. Target price decreases to $14.80 from to $14.83.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $14.08 Difference: $0.72
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Amcor's quarterly result met Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts and management retained guidance, forecasting a return to a positive EPS trajectory in the June half.

The broker notes recent trends have continued with no sign of an inflection point in consumer demand or de-stocking.

Equal-Weight rating and $14.50 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.08 Difference: $0.42
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following Amcor's in-line 1Q results, Morgans has greater confidence for improved 2H earnings as the business cycles the impact from the sale of its Russian operations, materially weaker volumes in the 2H of FY23 and greater cost-out benefits.

Underlying EPS fell by -10%, consistent with management guidance. Flexibles sales (constant currency) dropped by -6%, on a combination of price/mix benefits of around 2%, which were overwhelmed by a -8% drop in volume, explains the broker.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance for underlying EPS and free cash flow.

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold and raises the target to $15.20 from $14.25, despite minimal changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $14.08 Difference: $1.12
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

An in-line earnings result from Amcor in the first quarter, reports UBS, with earnings per share ahead of expectations driven by lower interest expenses.

Full year earnings per share guidance of 67-71 cents per share was reiterated, as lower volumes, higher interest and the company's Russian divestment are expected to weigh on earnings. 

With soft consumer demand and ongoing customer destocking, volumes declined -8% on the previous comparable period. Amcor expects this trend to persist over the first half, expecting improvement and volumes stabilisation in the second half. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.40 from $15.50.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $14.08 Difference: $1.32
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's 2Q cashflow report was in line with Morgans expectations and management reiterated FY24 guidance, which implies to the broker a strong finish to the 2H.

No changes are made to the analysts' forecasts and the $1.50 target and Add rating are maintained. It's felt the company's shares are trading at attractive levels compared to domestic peers.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.72
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group has green lit the second stage of its Jansen potash project, at a cost of -US$4.9bn. There was little to surprise Citi in the announcement, although costs came in a little higher than the broker had anticipated.

With first stage first production expected in FY26, it is expected second stage first production will be achieved in FY29, before taking three years to ramp up to full capacity of 8.5m tonnes per annum. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $45.00 from $44.00.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $45.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.12, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The development of BHP Group's Jansen stage 2 is proceeding materially faster than Macquarie anticipated with first production targeted for FY29 compared to the broker's FY37 date.

As a result of this surprise, the broker brings forward forecasts for Jansen production from Stage 2-4 to reflect the accelerated development timeline.

Outperform rating. The target rises to $47.50 from $47.00 on changes to Macquarie's currency forecasts.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $45.19 Difference: $2.31
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.12, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Having taken an in-depth look into BHP Group's investment in Jansen Potash, UBS notes the higher opex due to inflation, but also the prospect for material potash surplus if supply from Russia and Belarus returns to the global market place by the 2030s.

Both countries represent some 10% of global supply, the broker points out. Other producers are equally of the intention to add more capacity.

Bottom line: the return from Jansen Potash might be a lot lower than projected previously. UBS is now of the view Jansen has turned into a higher risk endeavour.

The broker notes there has only been limited progress in 2023 with the above-ground infrastructure with only foundations for the processing plant visible.

Luckily for BHP, iron ore prices are expected to range-trade between US$100-130/tonne in the next six months, likely supporting the share price. Target $43. Neutral.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $45.19 Difference: minus $2.19 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.12, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett transfers coverage of Boral to a new analyst, resulting in a -3% cut in the target price to $4.25 from $4.40, to reflect the analysts view on the construction cycle.

Input cost inflation continues to challenge the company but the broker spies room for more margin increases in the medium term as inflation cools.

The broker assumes a five-year EBIT compound annual growth rate of 11.8% and appreciates the company's balance sheet.

Hold rating retained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Big River Industries's AGM trading update appears to have disappointed Ord Minnett, the company observing continued weakness in early cycle residential exposures.

On the upside, this has been largely offset by later cycle exposures, management observing a strong backlog in the rest of its residential business, as well as a buoyant Commercial construction market.

Management guided to short-term headwinds but says the longer term outlook remains solid.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.48 from $2.79.

Target price is $2.48 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.32
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

With Coles Group rolling out technology to combat theft in 30% of its stores, Citi expects drag on gross margins from theft to ease in the second half. With technology being rolled out to the most theft impacted stores, the broker expects this to address 70% of theft exposure. 

Citi anticipates the introduction of these Skip Scan and Smart Gate technologies to drive a 40 basis point recovery to the company's supermarket gross profit margin over the half.  

The Buy rating and target price of $17.50 are retained.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.33 Difference: $2.17
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.17, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Things appear to be tracking along for Charter Hall Retail REIT, with the REIT recently reiterating operating earnings guidance of 27.4 cents per share and a distribution payout range of 90-95%. 

According to management, and Citi, strategy remains consistent and focused on non-discretionary convenience retailers. Portfolio income is expected to benefit from inflation linked rental growth. 

The Buy rating and target price of $4.10 are retained. 

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

At a glance, CSR's September-half result missed consensus forecasts by roughly -15% but Citi says compositionally, after removing Property timing issues, the result is arguably in line.

The top line outpaced, with revenue 6% ahead of consensus, and strong operating leverage delivered a record margin - 16% beat.

Building products proved the star performer.

Aluminium costs continued to drag (as expected) but higher energy and coal costs hit earnings (EBIT) which fell -$24m, compared with forecasts of $2m. Management downgraded FY24 guidance to -$15m to -$30m, from -$5 to -$15m, but the broker observes it still represents an improvement on the September half.

Property reported a loss of -$2m (a -$24m miss) but Citi says guidance for the division (largely unchanged) suggests this is a timing issue.

For now, Neutral rating and $5.45 target price retained.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, it is UBS's view today's H1 release by CSR showcased a positive performance, once one adjusts for the Property portfolio "miss".

The Aluminium business equally underperformed, but Building Products performed strongly better-than-anticipated. Another positive, the broker suggests, is the fact management has left FY24 EBIT guidance intact for the Property business.

Buy. Target $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.88
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWP as Hold (3) -

Following 1Q results, Morgans sees little cause for an immediate share price re-rate for Cedar Woods Properties, despite management noting improved customer enquiry levels and sales momentum.

No FY24 guidance was provided though management noted a strong 2H skew for FY24 earnings.

The broker feels earnings remain in a downgrade cycle as the company settles on fewer lots sold during a (recently) weaker demand environment. The broker applies a greater discount rate to valuation and lowers its target to $4.50 from $5.40.

The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0
If CWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

An AGM trading update by Domino's Pizza Enterprises revealed to Macquarie positive momentum for network sales, with 12.7% growth in the first 16 weeks.

There was same store sales growth of 2.7%, and eight of ten markets experienced positive growth, with Australia and Europe up by 7% and 3.8%, respectively, partially offset by a -6.8% decline in Asia.

Management noted commodity price pressures persist, though the analyst observes spot pricing has recently improved, which augers well for the 2H.

The target rises to $54 from $50 on higher earnings forecasts and improved sales momentum in the Australian and European
businesses, explains Macquarie. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $51.99 Difference: $2.01
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.10, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' year-to-date trading shows sales growth tracking slightly below the first seven weeks of FY24 and below December-half consensus forecasts, observes Morgan Stanley.

But management retains expectations of materially higher FY24 earnings and the broker cites improving trends in Australia and New Zealand, and a slowing in Europe.

Morgan Stanley says the figures provide greater confidence that earnings have bottomed. Overweight rating and $65 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $51.99 Difference: $13.01
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.10, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises has updated the market on its first six weeks, reporting same store sales growth of 2.7%, compared to a -1.0% decline in the previous comparable period, underpinned by 7.0% same store sames growth in Australia New Zealand and 3.8% in Europe.

While first half earnings are expected to be materially higher than the previous half, the company reiterated expectations of a second half weighting over FY24. UBS points out commodity pricing remains a challenge for the company, despite securing a new long-term global cheese supply.  

The Sell rating and target price of $43.00 are retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $51.99 Difference: minus $8.99 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.10, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Dexus was keen to show its diversity away from significant office assets at its recent investor day, says Citi. The broker believes a continued focus on the office portfolio by the market leaves the company's share price exposed to global and local challenges in office markets. 

The company also highlighted growth of its third party funds under management, with considerable growth expected to continue past FY30. Funds under management have grown to 250% of balance sheet capital, and is expected to exceed 500% by FY30. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $8.20 are retained.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $1.62
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

A key takeaway for Macquarie from the Dexus investor day is the potential for a doubling of third-party funds under management (FUM), partly due to the significant opportunity in infrastructure.

Management has identified over $2trn of growth opportunities for its management platform, with $0.8trn of potential in infrastructure following the completed acquisition of the Collimate platform.

The REIT revealed a plan to grow third-party FUM to 5 times its investment portfolio by 2030. The Outperform rating and $7.78 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.78 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $1.2
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EBO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's target for Ebos Group falls by -1% to $38.52 largely due to increased forecasts for employee/other costs in FY24 and slightly lower Community Pharmacy gross order receipts (GOR)

The broker's Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $38.52 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: $6.27
If EBO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.39, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EM2 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Eagle Mountain Mining has released 1Q results along with an exploration and operations overview.

Drilling and channel sampling results show better average grades than past drilling, as well as that shown in the current mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Oracle Ridge Copper project in Arizona.

Shaw and Partners suggests current mineral resource estimates may have underestimated block grades in higher grade areas.

While the broker maintains a Buy, High Risk rating, the target falls to 30c from 47c after adopting a lower valuation multiple.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.234
If EM2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 355% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

As part of 1Q results, Evolution Energy Minerals further highlighted the signing in August of the strategic collaboration with BTR New Material Group to establish vertically integrated downstream battery anode material operations.

BTR is the world’s largest battery anode company and under the terms of the deal 90% of Chilalo graphite product is now under offtake agreement.

As at the end of the 1Q, the company had $6.1m of cash, leaving it well funded to complete future work programs, in the broker's view.

Buy, High Risk and 72c target retained.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.565
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 365% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ahead of Infomedia's approaching annual general, Bell Potter sees some potential for a soft upgrade, or a narrowing of guidance to the upper end of range, from the company. 

The broker feels Infomedia initially provided a conservative guidance range, allowing for the impacts of the loss of a SimplePart customer and potential churn for Hyundai in Europe. If churn has proved less significant than originally expected, there is potential for an upgrade. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price of $1.75 is retained. 

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.295
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Janus Henderson's September-quarter result outpaced consensus and Morgan Stanley's EPS forecasts by 22%, the company logging a strong reduction in outflows (a big beat).

Management reduced cost guidance and announced a US$150m buyback.

The company's investment performance eased a touch.

The company will voluntarily delist from the ASX on December 6 and retain its US listing,

Equal-Weight rating and $39.70 target price retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $36.36 Difference: $3.34
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.74, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHG as Hold (3) -

Janus Henderson's September-quarter result appears to have met Ord Minnett's forecasts. Assets under management slightly disappointed but total net outflows pleased.

Hold rating and $41 target price retained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $36.36 Difference: $4.64
If JHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.74, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Jumbo Interactive with a Hold rating and $12.90 target price.

The broker observes Jumbo Interactive has been losing retail market share to The Lottery Corporation's ((TLC)) The Lott platform, noting the latter has a nearly identical product range but -10% to -30% cheaper.

Ord Minnett believes the company lacks the competitive advantages needed to create a moat and expects it will struggle to stem further losses in market share.

The broker also notes the expiry of Jumbo's reselling agreement with Lottery Corp in 2030 could result in a material destruction of value if not renewed, but considers renewal to be likely but expensive.

Otherwise, the broker appreciates the debt-free balance sheet, the company closing FY23 with $41m in cash

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.96, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LVH as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans downgrades its rating for LiveHire to Speculative Buy from Add following 1Q results and reduces its target to 15c from 19c, with lower near-term revenue growth and client wins now assumed.

Cash receipts for the quarter were below management's expectations and there was a slower ramp-up of the larger Direct Sourcing (DS) clients, explains the broker.

An increase in the assumed risk-free rate to 4.2% from 3.6% used by Morgans for valuing LiveHire contributed to the lower rating and target.

The lower rating was largely due to a slower-than-expected outcome from the Venero Capital engagement, which was implemented in order to find potential investors/suitors.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.096
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NSR as Hold (3) -

Management at National Storage REIT reiterated FY24 guidance at the AGM and Morgans notes operating metrics across the portfolio remain relatively stable, apart from slightly softer occupancy.

A gearing rate of only 20% (at the end of June) provides capacity for acquisitions and development activity, notes the analyst. Without providing specific detail, management noted cost-out initiatives are being sought.

The target falls to $2.18 from $2.40 because the broker's assumed risk-free interest rate rises to 4.2% from 3.6%. Hold.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.18
If NSR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following 1Q results, Shaw and Partners notes Peninsula Energy has cash of US$12.5m and a 210klb uranium inventory worth US$15.5m. It's thought additional funding will be required for the Lance Uranium project in Wyoming.

The broker points out a delay to first production at Lance was a set-back, which has seen Peninsula shares significantly under-perform uranium peers.

The Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 27 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.14
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers positive 1Q net flows were an excellent outcome for Pinnacle Investment Management given the investment backdop. These flows reflected affiliate growth into private credit, private equity and fixed income strategies, explains the analyst.

Compared to the June quarter, affiliate funds under management (FUM) and retail FUM were down -2% and up 3.5%, respectively.

The broker's target falls to $10.76 from $11.22 following negative EPS revisions over FY24-26 due to the impact of flows, mix and market movements. The Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $10.76 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $2.89
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

St. Barbara's September-quarter production missed Ord Minnett's forecasts by -34% and costs also disappointed, suggesting a slightly weaker FY24 outlook, surmises the broker.

The broker believes the quarterly result probably requires FY24 earnings downgrades in the region of -61%.

Citing few catalysts in the wings, the broker retains a Hold rating and 20c target price.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.02
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder's two new products, Dynamic Revenue+ and Channels+, should see the company expand beyond channel management and into revenue management, says Citi, as well as directly monetising bookings through the platform. 

While monetisation of both products appears longer-dated than initially expected, the broker sees Dynamic Revenue+ as a logical expansion into an underpenetrated market for SiteMinder, and considers Channel+ a strengthening addition to the core platform. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.70 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $1.58
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes that SiteMinder is tracking fast against key metrics, has derisked the business and that unit economics appear to have sharply improved.

The launch of two new products Dynamic Revenue Plus (DR+) and Channels Plus has broadened its offering and are expected to deliver a 69% improved in revenue from the broker's base case, and a 56% increase in gross profit, resulting in a greater than 100% jump in earnings (EBITDA). The broker believes such a performance could accommodate a bull case of $9 a share.

Even a more modest improvement would warrant upgrades, says the broker. 

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight. Target price rises to $4.75 from $4.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.63
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Following commentary at the Sims AGM, Macquarie decides to lower its near-term metal margin expectations as competitive
pressures remain elevated in a tight market.

In evidence of softer demand, suggests the analyst, scrap prices have remained weak and volumes are under pressure.

Macquarie lowers its target to $13.20 from $14.20 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.53 Difference: $0.67
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

Sims has guided to modestly positive December-half earnings (EBIT) with the September-quarter at break-even, outpacing Morgan Stanley's forecasts but materially missing consensus forecasts.

The broker expects consensus downgrades as a result (the broker sits -49% below consensus), with Turkish and US scrap prices still trading sideways in October and the global trading environment remaining challenging.

Underweight rating and $12 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Sell (5) -

Sims reported modestly positive group earnings in the first half, which UBS takes to mean a high single-digit to teens growth range. The broker highlights the actual result would be dependent on timing shipments and scrap purchase. 

The result showed marginal improvement quarter-on-quarter, although UBS points out the company faced a low bar. The broker continues to wait on US export prices to turn, noting key scrap prices remain down -3-5% month-on-month despite some early signs of stablisation. 

The Sell rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.00 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TRJ as Buy (1) -

Trajan Group's investor day appears to have met Ord Minnett's expectations, management highlighting a sound underlying business and announcing plans to launch more disruptive businesses.

Management pointed to macro tailwinds in each of its four key segments, and said underlying product demand remains strong.

Acquistions were possible but the broker expects these will be pushed out to the medium term.

Ord Minnett, joint lead manager to Trojan's IPO in 2021 and its 2022 capital raising, expects margins will continue to rise over FY24 due to price increases and cost cutting.

Buy rating and $2.35 target price retained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $1.01
If TRJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has purchased US luxury winemaker Daou Vineyards for A$1.5bn, to be funded by a $157m placement to the current Daou owners; a $825m entitlement offer and $490m debt.

The deal is expected to be finalised by year-end.

After accounting for dilution, Ord Minnett considers the deal to be broadly neutral and considers the entitlements to be attractive on valuation grounds.

The broker expects a contingent earn-out of up to US$100m, payable over three years, will be paid in full, requiring a compound annual growth rate of roughly 11%.

Hold rating and $11.50 target price retained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $12.22 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.99, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

A resilient first quarter for Vicinity Centres, says Citi, with portfolio sales up 2.7% amid ongoing CBD retail recovery and occupancy reaching 98.8%. The company reaffirmed full year funds from operations of 14.1-14.5 cents.  

Having reported strong sales growth in early FY23, the broker observes apparel, footwear and homewares are now demonstrating relative weakness, but luxury remains strong. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.00 are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.275
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

First quarter results by Vicinity Centres included strong leasing spreads, according to Macquarie, though comparative sales moderated to 2.7% from 4.8% in Q4 FY23.

Management reaffirmed funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted FFO guidance for FY24, and announced the acquisition of the remaining 49% interest in Chatswood Chase Sydney for -$307m. Roxburgh Village was also divested for $123m.

Based on the latest Jones Lang LaSalle data, the broker lowers its target by -13% to $1.62 on portfolio valuation movements. Neutral.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.005
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Equal-weight (3) -

Vicinity Centres' September-quarter result pleased Morgan Stanley, the company logging higher leasing spreads and total portfolio sales.

A few big movie releases during the period boosted dining, retail sales and foot traffic.

But the broker observes, outside of this, growth was patchy, and that leasing-spread growth came mainly from Chadstone/DFO.

Equal-Weight rating and $1.95 target price retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.225
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests the consensus forecast for Woodside Energy is too high and production guidance at the upcoming investor day on November 8 will likely disappoint.

The broker's production forecast of 185mmboe in 2024 is now -7% below consensus due to lower estimates for the North West Shelf and Bass Strait.

Neutral rating retained and Macquarie's target falls to $32 from $34 on lower FY24 earnings forecasts for production and slightly lower spot LNG prices.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: minus $2.71 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.48, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources