Australian Broker Call
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January 07, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $12.03
Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley has retained its Underweight rating. Industry view: Cautious. Price target $14.14.
Target price is $14.14 Current Price is $12.03 Difference: $2.11
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.99, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of -41.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.1, implying annual growth of -26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AIA AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LTD
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $7.21
Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -
Today's update reveals that Morgan Stanley's price target for Auckland Airport has declined to NZ$7.37 from NZ$7.47.
Rating remains Equal-weight. Industry view is Cautious. Small downward adjustments were made to forecasts.
Current Price is $7.21. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.03 cents and EPS of 14.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC.
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $40.26
Citi rates JHG as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts suspect management at the wealth manager might surprise with better than expected cost control while seasonally the prospect for improved performance fees is very much alive.
On the flipside, Q4 is believed to be marked by continued funds outflows, potentially larger than in the preceding quarter which benefited from some lumpy institutional mandates.
Citi retains the Buy rating while lowering the price target to $45.80 from $46.85 with the observation this still includes a 10% take-over premium.
Target price is $45.80 Current Price is $40.26 Difference: $5.54
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.60, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 208.15 cents and EPS of 431.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 356.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 208.15 cents and EPS of 455.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 351.7, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.16
Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -
The company's latest trading update has revealed the order book remains at record levels and Citi analysts point out this bodes well for 2H21.
Nick Scali remains the broker's top small cap pick on the ASX. With operational momentum expected to continue, Citi analysts point out the shares are trading at an "undemanding" FY21 PE of 11x, accompanied by a dividend yield of 8%.
Target price lifts to $11.65 from $10.50 on higher market multiples and an increase in forecast profits.
Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $0.49
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 96.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 56.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.89
Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -
Today's update reveals Morgan Stanley has downgraded its industry view to Cautious, having upgraded to Attractive in December.
Specifically for Origin Energy, the Equal-weight rating remains in place, alongside a price target of $5.83 (last upgraded from $5.55 in December).
Target price is $5.83 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.94
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.20 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 368.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 30.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.21
Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -
Following Pinnacle Investment Management's market update on performance fees and funds under management, Macquarie has retained its Outperform rating.
The analysts have significantly upgraded performance fee forecasts, and continue to see further upside potential. They also express their confidence about the ability to continue attracting funds inflows, in particular from retail investors.
Price target lifts to $7.96 from $6.26.
Target price is $7.96 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $0.75
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.20 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.40 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $6.25
Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Overweight (1) -
Today's update has revealed some smaller changes to forecasts. Morgan Stanley's rating remains Overweight with a price target of $6.67. Industry View: cautious.
Target price is $6.67 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.42
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 273.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| JHG | Janus Henderson Group | $43.23 | Citi | 45.80 | 46.85 | -2.24% |
| NCK | Nick Scali | $10.88 | Citi | 11.65 | 10.50 | 10.95% |
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment | $7.19 | Macquarie | 7.96 | 6.26 | 27.16% |
Summaries
| AGL | AGL Energy | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.03 |
| AIA | Auckland International | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.21 |
| JHG | Janus Henderson Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $40.26 |
| NCK | Nick Scali | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.16 |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.89 |
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.21 |
| SYD | Sydney Airport | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.25 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 4 |
| 3. Hold | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 1 |
Thursday 07 January 2021
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