Australian Broker Call

May 11, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 11:05 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AGL - AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
CWN - CROWN RESORTS Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
GUD - G.U.D. HOLDINGS Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
JBH - JB HI-FI Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
REA - REA GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
AAD  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

Overnight Price: $2.08

Morgans rates AAD as Hold (3) -

The update on theme parks trading for March and April reveals visits and revenue were negatively affected by abnormal weather conditions. Theme parks are now expected to report a -$2-4m loss in EBITDA in FY17.

Morgans continues to believe the company's ability to outperform will be limited until reasonably positive constant growth in Main Event is evident..

Morgans retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $1.98 from $1.82.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of -93.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 346.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 833.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

Overnight Price: $27.56

Macquarie rates AGL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie believes the rapidly falling price of renewables is creating a new threat in the market, namely that the Renewable Energy Certificates market is likely to be structurally oversupplied from FY22.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Whilst the company is becoming light on capital needs, there are challenges such as retail pricing reviews, five-minute pricing and the potential REC price collapse, as well as some softening of spot electricity prices.

While none of these affect the near term they undermine the scope of earnings growth and the terminal value of the business, in the broker's opinion. Target is reduced to $25.00 from $25.81.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $27.56 Difference: minus $2.56 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.87, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 121.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.7, implying annual growth of 25.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

Overnight Price: $29.39

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

The sector landscape is changing, and not for the better. Citi analysts see a domestic banking sector that is managing costs well but is feeling the pinch from multiple sides.

In conclusion: the "Golden Egg" of Australian Banking is now under siege from government, regulators and competitors, conclude the analysts. ANZ Bank is the only major bank not rated Sell.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $1.61
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.90, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 233.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.3, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 246.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $6.77

UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Re-initiate with Buy (1) -

The company has closed its acquisition of Headwaters, a US building and construction materials business.  In Deutsche Bank's view the acquisition makes sense and, while the FY17 enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 10.6x appears high, after synergies it is more reasonable.

The broker remains confident the US economy will continue to grow and reinstates its recommendation as a Buy with a target of $8.07. Deutsche Bank currently factors in Headwaters synergies of US$80m.

Target price is $8.07 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: $1.3
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

Overnight Price: $81.73

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

The sector landscape is changing, and not for the better. Citi analysts see a domestic banking sector that is managing costs well but is feeling the pinch from multiple sides.

In conclusion: the "Golden Egg" of Australian Banking is now under siege from government, regulators and competitors, conclude the analysts. Sell rating reiterated as current share prices are deemed too high for the challenge that lays ahead.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $81.73 Difference: minus $6.73 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.85, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 548.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.4, implying annual growth of 0.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 425.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 576.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $4.56

Citi rates CSR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral as concerns on housing combine with FY17 margin weakness, the analysts explain. Price target drops to $4.10 from $4.32.

The analysts do think there will be one more hurrah, with FY18 projected to be peak earnings year for CSR. As housing approvals fall, compression of peak FY18 earnings should follow, predict the analysts.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse found it hard to fault the company's FY17 result, with the exception of Viridian glass. Earnings momentum is expected to continue into FY18, underpinned by strong building product volumes and prices, hedged aluminium book and substantial contribution from property.

The main risk in the broker's opinion is the shape of the cycle, and the multiple that investors are willing to ascribe to building products as earnings fade. For now, the strong balance sheet and dividend yield should provide support, Credit Suisse adds. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $4.90 from $5.25.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.34
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 41.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Hold (3) -

The FY17 result was below Deutsche Bank's expectations. While no guidance was provided for FY18, management highlighted the fact that the Australian housing market has likely peaked although demand should remain steady.

Given higher energy costs, Deutsche Bank no longer factors in FY18 building products EBIT expansion. Hold retained on valuation. Target is reduced to $4.37 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations.  Although building products improved headwinds are emerging, as the broker observes softening approvals will start acting as a headwind as FY18 progresses.

Macquarie increases FY18 and FY19 estimates of earnings per share by 3% and 19% respectively. The broker believes the stock risks de-rating from current levels as earnings peak.

Neutral retained. Target is $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.04
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 32.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

The company delivered a FY17 net profit that was below Ord Minnett's estimates. The miss stems from building products, Viridian and property while aluminium was ahead of projections.

Ord Minnett believes the turning residential cycle will weigh on building products earnings for FY18, while a step up in electricity costs will affect profitability at Tomago. Nevertheless, the broker considers the earnings growth outlook benign.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.20 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWN  CROWN RESORTS LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $12.98

UBS rates CWN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Crown has outperformed the index by 21% since posting its result in Feb, which revealed cost reductions and a more simplified business structure focused on domestic assets. The Melbourne and Brisbane casinos are now passed their capex peaks, UBS notes.

Sydney capex is next, and there is debt to repay, so little likelihood of capital management. UBS warns of the prospect of weaker gaming floor trends and uncertainty with regard VIPs. With the stock now trading on a five-year high relative PE, the broker downgrades to Neutral.

Target falls to $13.19 from $13.39.

Target price is $13.19 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $0.21
If CWN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.4, implying annual growth of -27.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.0, implying annual growth of -36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EGS  EASTERN GOLDFIELDS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $0.31

Morgans rates EGS as Add (1) -

The company is due to start commissioning Davyhurst in late May and first ore is due in July. Exploration success and further resource definition will provide upside to Morgans valuation.

The broker revises its valuation and raises the target to $0.62 from $0.50. Add rating retained.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.31
If EGS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.24.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

Overnight Price: $5.13

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The company has completed a US$1.5bn senior secured note offering. The company will use the funding to refinance the outstanding 2019 senior secured credit facility.

Credit Suisse observes softness in iron ore prices continues to drive the near-term performance.

Outperform rating and $7.35 target retained.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $2.22
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 56.69 cents and EPS of 126.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 43.03 cents and EPS of 86.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of -36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The company has completed an unsecured notes offering, increasing the deal to US$1.5bn  from US$1.0bn. Proceeds will be used to re-pay the remainder of the 2019 term loan and 2022 unsecured note.

The debt issue has enabled the company to further simplify its debt facilities. The removal of the term loan is expected to have improved the flexibility around debt covenants.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $6.20 target.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $1.07
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of -36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GHC  GENERATION HEALTHCARE REIT

Healthcare services

Overnight Price: $2.30

Morgans rates GHC as Hold (3) -

NorthWest Australia has increased its bid to $2.30 from $2.24. Consequently, the company has unanimously recommended unit holders accept the increased offer.

A trading update has reconfirmed FY17 guidance and that the current project pipeline is on track. Morgans retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $2.30 from $2.24.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0
If GHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.55.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.70.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

Overnight Price: $12.74

UPDATED

Citi rates GUD as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral as the share price has run well ahead of underlying fundamentals, say the analysts. They reiterate being positive on the prospects for the Automotive division, but clearly the market is so too.

Earnings estimates have been increased by 1-6% for the years ahead. Target price rises to $11.44 from $10.45. Citi continues to see Oates and Davey as noncore businesses and believes GUD should focus on divesting these businesses, in addition to Dexion, which remains up for sale.

Target price is $11.44 Current Price is $12.74 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.47, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 74.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 15.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

Overnight Price: $4.15

Citi rates HVN as Sell (5) -

Following analysis of US, UK and German retailer performance around Amazon Prime launches plus Citi's survey of price differentials in key categories, the analysts have reduced long term earnings forecasts by -30%.

According to Citi's proprietary survey, Amazon is -15% cheaper than Australian retailers across three major categories. Sell rating retained. Price target drops by -33% to $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 35.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $3.69

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

First half results were slightly weaker than Morgans expected. The second half outlook appears more positive but, despite this, the broker downgrades FY17 earnings estimates following maintenance shutdowns and additional costs at the Louisiana ammonia plant.

Hold rating retained. Target is $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.01
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 159.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

Overnight Price: $24.31

Citi rates JBH as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Following analysis of US, UK and German retailer performance around Amazon Prime launches plus Citi's survey of price differentials in key categories, the analysts have cut long term earnings forecasts for JB H-Fi by more than -40%.

According to Citi's proprietary survey, Amazon is -15% cheaper than Australian retailers across three major categories. Target price falls by -35% in response, to $18.50. Downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $24.31 Difference: minus $5.81 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.03, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 185.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.7, implying annual growth of 20.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 199.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.1, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $91.94

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

The sector landscape is changing, and not for the better. Citi analysts see a domestic banking sector that is managing costs well but is feeling the pinch from multiple sides.

In conclusion: the "Golden Egg" of Australian Banking is now under siege from government, regulators and competitors, conclude the analysts. Sell rating reiterated as current share prices are deemed too high for the challenge that lays ahead.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $91.94 Difference: minus $19.94 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.63, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 460.00 cents and EPS of 603.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 652.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 469.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 551.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 665.7, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 481.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $32.20

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

The sector landscape is changing, and not for the better. Citi analysts see a domestic banking sector that is managing costs well but is feeling the pinch from multiple sides.

In conclusion: the "Golden Egg" of Australian Banking is now under siege from government, regulators and competitors, conclude the analysts. Sell rating reiterated as current share prices are deemed too high for the challenge that lays ahead.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.20 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.80, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 237.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.0, implying annual growth of -0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 243.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

Overnight Price: $18.50

Citi rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

Released Q3 financials beat Citi's expectations, but the analysts are anticipating a rather weak Q4. They have increased estimates by some 2%. Price target improves to $19.25 from $17.70.

The analysts note Move in the USA and REA Group locally both posted a strong performance. Also, the WSJ saw a +34% increase in digital subscribers. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $0.75
If NWS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.61 cents and EPS of 56.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 46.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.94 cents and EPS of 72.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

EBITDA growth was strong in the March quarter, Credit Suisse observes. The broker calculates underlying EBITDA growth of 22%. FY17 forecasts are raised by 2% to reflect this stronger performance.

 Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $18.50 from $17.00.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $0
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.93 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 46.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.25 cents and EPS of 64.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates NWS as Buy (1) -

March quarter numbers were ahead of Deutsche Bank's forecasts at the EBITDA level. Net income was lower, affected by higher-than-expected tax and a lower contribution from Foxtel.

Despite the strong beat on EBITDA, the broker makes only slight upgrades to full year forecasts, as supportive revenues from News America Marketing are expected to reverse in the subsequent quarter to the tune of -US$15m, while there was a US$12m benefit from an adjustment to deferred consideration related to the Unruly acquisition.

Buy rating and $23.50 target retained.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $5
If NWS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.27 cents and EPS of 58.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 46.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.93 cents and EPS of 69.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Overall, Macquarie believes the March quarter was a better financial result from the company, indicating earnings stabilised. Operating improvement is mostly attributable to News America Marketing, digital real estate and progress on cost reduction initiatives.

The broker expects a more mixed result for the June quarter, Given the extra week in the  prior corresponding period and some timing issues at  News America Marketing. Outperform retained. Target is $20.40.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $1.9
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.61 cents and EPS of 54.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 46.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.61 cents and EPS of 76.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QIN  QUINTIS LTD

Overnight Price: $0.60

UBS rates QIN as Buy (1) -

Quintis' one and only pharma customer has terminated its contract. Galderma acquired a competing acne brand back in March, leading the broker to question corporate governance given a long delay to disclosure. The termination also likely kills off any idea of a pharma spin-off.

That leaves wood sales to China, where the risk is prices are not as healthy and the recent negative publicity the company has ensured has an impact. The broker nevertheless retains Buy and $3.20 target.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $2.6
If QIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 433% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.54.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $65.65

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts saw a strong result in an overall soft market. It is their view, the recorded 16% revenue growth amidst continued volume declines shows the effectiveness of management's approach to product and pricing.

The analysts warn for the positive impact if and when volumes do start rising again. In the meantime, it is Citi's assessment that price growth and new products will continue to drive REA's top-line. Buy rating retained as well as the recently increased $72.50 target price. Estimates have not been touched.

Target price is $72.50 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: $6.85
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 81.80 cents and EPS of 181.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 103.80 cents and EPS of 230.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

March quarter EBITDA growth of 20% was reported with Australian revenue growth accelerating to 16%. Credit Suisse observes this was a solid result, particularly given ongoing listing weakness in the period.

The broker reduces FY17 estimates for EBITDA by -2.4% because of higher forecast cost growth. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $65 from $60 to reflect higher longer-term forecasts

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates REA as Hold (3) -

March quarter numbers were better than Deutsche Bank expected. The broker lowers forecasts for the June quarter to take into account guidance for costs to be phased into the last quarter of the year. Estimates for FY18 and beyond remain largely unchanged.

Hold rating retained. The broker increases the target to $56 from $51 because of the rolling forward valuation.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $9.65 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 176.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

March quarter EBITDA was up 20% and in line with Macquarie's expectations. Volume headwinds still exist in Australia but have eased and the broker notes the company is starting to cycle weaker comparables.

The broker observes the company has had a material re-rating over the last six months on the back of stabilising volumes and strong operating performance.

 As a result, while remaining very comfortable with the outlook, the broker believes this is now largely reflected in the share price. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $65.00 from $63.50.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.80 cents and EPS of 179.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 225.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

March quarter results confirm an acceleration in Australian revenue growth to 16%. Morgan Stanley's positive outlook centres on further growth in the total pool of advertising spending on real estate in Australia.

Against this backdrop, the broker expects further increases in EBITDA margins and return on equity.

Overweight and $63 target retained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 100.20 cents and EPS of 187.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.10 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

March quarter revenue and EBITDA were slightly below Morgans expectations.The company reported 16% like-for-like revenue growth in the quarter.

Most of Morgans valuation stems from the Australian business, where the opportunity exists before five more years of strong earnings growth.

The broker acknowledges that, should the Asian and/or the US business deliver substantial earnings growth over time, current valuations would be too conservative, but it remains too early to make a judgment call on offshore business. Hold rating and $60.73 target retained.

Target price is $60.73 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $4.92 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 176.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates REA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

REA posted another strong quarterly result despite industry headwinds, with volumes, mix and new products likely the drivers, UBS suggests. The prospect is for continuing strong revenue growth ahead, but increased costs will weigh on earnings.

The broker warns of the signal provided by materially weaker building approvals numbers for March. REA is trading on an FY18 PE of 30x versus 27x for Seek ((SEK)) and 21x for Carsales ((CAR)). While UBS likes the long term growth story, near term a lower entry point would be desirable. Downgrade to Sell.

Target rises to $60 from 58.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $65.65 Difference: minus $5.65 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.18, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.7, implying annual growth of -5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.4, implying annual growth of 23.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

Overnight Price: $2.66

UPDATED

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 has again downgraded production for the Illawarra coal operations, note analysts at Citi, with production now expected to be at least -10% below the previous guidance of 7.9mt, which, the analysts highlight, had been lowered twice already.

Understandably, the analysts are left with quite a number of questions about ongoing risks at the operation. The real question, they suggest, is what true Illawarra capacity versus the theoretical capacity of 9mtpa?

And then there's resumption of production at Cannington, which also still carries risks and uncertainties. Citi has cut its price target to $2.95 (was $3.10). Buy rating retained but the analysts make it known they prefer BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) among the diversifieds.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.29
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.64 cents and EPS of 27.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.97 cents and EPS of 24.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The company has downgraded production guidance for Illawarra metallurgical coal following elevated gas levels in an un-manned area of the mine. The company notes sales volumes will be affected directly but material costs above and beyond the unit cost impact are unlikely.

The outage is expected to hit FY17 production by -10%. Credit Suisse adjusts forecasts to reflect the update, leading to a -6% reduction to FY17 estimates for earnings per share. FY18 is left unchanged. Outperform rating and $2.95 target retained.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.29
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.96 cents and EPS of 29.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.66 cents and EPS of 24.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Production at Illawarra metallurgical coal has been suspended as elevated gas levels were again recorded at Area 7. Guidance for the division has been revised down by at least -10% to 7.1mt for FY17.

Deutsche Bank reduces earnings estimates by -7% for FY17 to reflect a more cautious outlook. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.64 cents and EPS of 23.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.64 cents and EPS of 19.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The company expects to miss FY17 production guidance at Illawarra by at least -10%.This reflects a return of elevated gas levels in the Appin  Area 7 mine.

Macquarie takes a more conservative approach to production forecasts in the medium term and, while the further reduction in guidance is disappointing, retains a bullish outlook on the stock, driven essentially by an expectation that Chinese aluminium restructuring will underpin a strong earnings upgrade cycle.

Outperform retained. Target is $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.84
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.44 cents and EPS of 28.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.24 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

The company has indicated metallurgical coal production from the Illawarra will be less than  previous guidance. Morgan Stanley observes the impact is minor but another small downgrade does erode confidence.

Metallurgical coal production for FY17 is now  indicated to be at least -10% below the prior guidance of 7.9mt because of elevated gas levels.

Overweight retained. Target is $3.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.44
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.96 cents and EPS of 34.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.96 cents and EPS of 25.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates S32 as Hold (3) -

The company has had to suspend part of its Illawarra coal operations after detecting elevated gas levels. FY17 guidance will be missed by at least -10%.

Morgans remains concerned over the increase in sovereign risk in South Africa, bracing for the release of a contested/revised mining charter. The broker reduces Illawarra production forecasts by -6% and also introduces a -10% discount on the company's South African operations.

Hold rating retained. Target falls to $2.96 from $3.11.

Target price is $2.96 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.45 cents and EPS of 21.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.64 cents and EPS of 26.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLM  SALMAT LIMITED

Media

Overnight Price: $0.46

Macquarie rates SLM as Neutral (3) -

The company expects FY17 EBITDA of $20-22m, lower than Macquarie forecast. The broker is disappointed with the downgrade, given the half-on-half momentum witnessed in the business.

The broker observes the company is part way through a significant transformation process and, with large-scale cost reductions now largely factored in, is in a position to re-focus on revenue growth. Nevertheless, progress has been hampered by cycle and structural headwinds.

FY17 forecasts for earnings per share are reduced by -34% and FY18 by -27%. Neutral retained.  Target is reduced to $0.49 from $0.62.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.03
If SLM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

Overnight Price: $32.65

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

The sector landscape is changing, and not for the better. Citi analysts see a domestic banking sector that is managing costs well but is feeling the pinch from multiple sides.

In conclusion: the "Golden Egg" of Australian Banking is now under siege from government, regulators and competitors, conclude the analysts. Sell rating reiterated as current share prices are deemed too high for the challenge that lays ahead.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.65 Difference: minus $2.15 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 236.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.1, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WFD  WESTFIELD CORPORATION

Infra & Property Developers

Overnight Price: $8.93

Macquarie rates WFD as Underperform (5) -

March quarter update focused on portfolio metrics and Macquarie observes sales growth in regional malls slowed down with occupancy also lower.

With limited near-term earnings growth or earnings upside Macquarie retains a Underperform rating. Target is $8.93.

Target price is $8.93 Current Price is $8.93 Difference: $0
If WFD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WFD as Buy (1) -

Westfield's quarterly update indicated that the company continues to outperform US mall REIT peers helped by its UK exposure, the broker notes, with a unique development program remaining on track. But to see the gap to net asset valuation close, sentiment has to improve towards US mall REITs in general.

Brick & mortar chains are closing stores all over the place. But while Westfield's premium to peers now looks a but stretched, the broker retains Buy on valuation. Target unchanged at $9.80.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $8.93 Difference: $0.87
If WFD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.23 cents and EPS of 45.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.23 cents and EPS of 49.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AAD - ARDENT LEISURE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.08
AGL - AGL ENERGY Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $27.56
ANZ - ANZ BANKING GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $29.39
BLD - BORAL Re-initiate with Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.77
CBA - COMMBANK Sell - Citi Overnight Price $81.73
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.56
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.56
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.56
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.56
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.56
CWN - CROWN RESORTS Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $12.98
EGS - EASTERN GOLDFIELDS Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.31
FMG - FORTESCUE Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.13
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.13
GHC - GENERATION HEALTHCARE REIT Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.30
GUD - G.U.D. HOLDINGS Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $12.74
HVN - HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.15
IPL - INCITEC PIVOT Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.69
JBH - JB HI-FI Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $24.31
MQG - MACQUARIE GROUP Sell - Citi Overnight Price $91.94
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Sell - Citi Overnight Price $32.20
NWS - NEWS CORP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $18.50
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $18.50
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $18.50
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.50
QIN - QUINTIS Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.60
REA - REA GROUP Buy - Citi Overnight Price $65.65
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $65.65
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $65.65
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $65.65
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $65.65
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $65.65
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $65.65
S32 - SOUTH32 Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.66
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.66
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.66
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.66
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.66
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.66
SLM - SALMAT Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.46
WBC - WESTPAC BANKING Sell - Citi Overnight Price $32.65
WFD - WESTFIELD CORP Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.93
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.93
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

19

5. Sell

10

Thursday 11 May 2017

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.