Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AEL as Add (1) -

Morgans' short-term conviction on oil has been weakened by the uncertain backdrop of trade war, prompting the broker to consider three oil price scenarios and their impact on oil stocks.

In the base-case scenario of a US$70-80/bbl price (vs US$74/bbl now), the broker didn't indicate any impact on Amplitude Energy. In the oversupply bear case scenario of a US$50-60/bbl price, the broker expects the company to be insulated due to its focus on gas.

And in the supply-crunch bull case of US$90-110/bbl price, the lack of oil sensitivity would possibly be a drag.

No change to forecasts following a regular review.

Add. Target unchanged at 28c.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.085
If AEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes the Eilers & Krejick report showed Aristocrat Leisure's Phoenix Link is performing strongly four months into the launch and is on track to beat the base growth of the company's top three contributors in FY23.

The new House of the Dragon game is also performing well, with 2.8x floor average. However, the broker highlights the recent fall in consumer sentiment could signal a headwind as tariff uncertainty may lead to consumers pulling back on gaming spending.

The broker notes the company is more exposed to US gaming revenues, given two-thirds of its gaming base is tied to coin-in.

No material changes to forecasts. Buy maintained. Target drops to $83 from $85.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $65.50 Difference: $17.5
If ALL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.07, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

A recent visit to Cobar has reaffirmed Ord Minnett's confidence in Aurelia Metals, with the broker noting the Federation project is ramping up well towards commercial production and the Peak expansion is ongoing.

The broker expects re-rating over the coming months on the company's potential to generate free cash flow.

Rating revised to Buy from Speculative Buy. Target raised to 35c from 31c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.09
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVJ as Hold (3) -

AV Jennings entered into a scheme implementation deed with Avid Property Group where the latter will acquire its shares, but at a reduced price of 65.5c from 67.0c non-binding proposal in November.

The company confirmed the non-binding and indicative competing proposal from Ho Bee Land is not going ahead, and the board is unanimously recommending shareholders vote in favor of the scheme.

Bell Potter retains the Hold rating and cut the target price to 66c from 70c to reflect the new offer.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.005
If AVJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Morgans' short-term conviction on oil has been weakened by the uncertain backdrop of trade war, prompting the broker to consider three oil price scenarios and their impact on oil stocks.

In the base-case scenario of a US$70-80/bbl price (vs US$74/bbl now), the broker expects Beach Energy to get better realised prices depending on execution. In the oversupply bear case scenario of a US$50-60/bbl price, the company would be impacted by weakening sentiment.

The broker cut working capital expenses following a regular review, leading to an upgrade in FY26 EPS.

Hold. Target unchanged at $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.085
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts currently prefer steel above iron ore exposure. Having said so, steel prices have been firm of late and the analysts are predicting price weakness is but a matter of time.

Regardless, North Star should, in their view, continue to benefit from a "healthy" spread. Weaker coking coal pricing should be to the benefit of BlueScope Steel.

Citi analysts have trimmed their target price to $26.5 (-$2) on reduction of their target FY27 EV/EBITDA multiple to 6x. The shares trade on FY27 EV/EBITDA of 4x and price/cash earnings of 4.9x, the report highlights.

Buy rating retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $21.84 Difference: $4.66
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BTR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Brightstar Resources has successfully completed its maiden ore processing campaign at Genesis Minerals’ ((GMD)) Laverton Mill.

Shaw and Partners highlights Parcel 1 delivered 4,297oz at 2.51gold/t with 94.25% recovery, exceeding internal estimates and benefitting from full exposure to the record Australian dollar gold price.

The company is progressing with ore haulage for the next parcel (May 2025) and remains on schedule for first ore from the Fish underground mine in June, observe the analysts.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 4 cent target are maintained.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.02
If BTR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Shares in biotechs have been under selling pressure of late and UBS analysts draw a direct link with the resignation of Peter Marks, director of CBER (part of the US FDA) on March 28.

UBS notes Dr Marks is highly regarded and a key player in areas like cell/gene therapy and vaccines, but finds it nevertheless surprising biotech shares generally have sold off on the news.

Following conversation with an expert inside the US industry, the analysts are not worried about any major changes taking place in the short term.

They have grabbed the opportunity to repeat the fact they are high-conviction buyers of shares in Telix Pharmaceuticals, with most risks seen as positive risks for the company.

UBS is equally positive ("a buyer") about CSL shares, even though there are some concerns about the stability of flu vaccine demand in the US. CSL's valuation is nevertheless seen as attractive.

No changes made to Buy rating or $310 price target for CSL.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $251.57 Difference: $58.43
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Citi believes Evolution Mining will continue to outperform Northern Star Resources ((NST)). The target price for Evolution rises to $7 from $6 on the back of a lift in EPS forecasts of 11% for FY25 and 13% for FY26. Neutral rated.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights that in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Target price for Genesis Minerals rises to $3.90 from $3.40. Outside of the ASX100, Genesis is the preferred gold exposure for the broker.

Neutral rating retained. The analyst's EPS forecasts lift by 8% and 9% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.15
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has valued Goodman Group's industrial warehouse business at $24.94bn, including work in progress of $8bn, which would underpin around 9% compound average growth rate in EPS and generate circa 70% of FY26 EPS forecast.

The broker notes the market is currently discounting around $3–$6 per share for the data centre business and an estimated 25c–30c for FY26 EPS for the powerbank, or a mid-teens price-to-earnings multiple, versus global data centre peers at over 20 times multiple.

Morgan Stanley stresses the group can "comfortably" fund its data centre capex, with optionality to sell down the developments into joint ventures and recycle capital.

Target price is lowered to $37.20 from $40.82. Overweight rating retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $8.01
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.97, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GTK as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Gentrack Group is on a hiring spree with 14 new job openings created in the 10 business days prior to March 25, suggesting new projects could start in the next six months.

The broker also observed 35 open positions in Bulgaria which it believes is an indication of a new team being set up there, possibly ahead of a large digital transformation project by Bulgaria's Electricity System Operator.

The broker sees some risk to FY25 forecasts as contracts may get phased but expects this to boost FY26 revenue.

Target price cut to $13.50 from $13.90 to account for recent allotment of performance rights. Buy maintained. 

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $9.70 Difference: $3.8
If GTK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.93, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has cut the target price on HMC Capital to account for more conservative assumptions around asset management growth.

The broker also pointed to the restructuring announcement to transition HMC Capital's current private equity fund, CP1-listed equities, to a new structure, CP2, which will invest in private funds.

This is effectively a transfer of capital from an existing fund rather than a new private equity fund, as inferred at the February results announcement, and will involve the payout of $300m of distributions in April, or $150m to HMC Capital.

The result is HMC Capital has more cash for the Neoen deal, but CP2 restructured will be a smaller fund. Management also revised down FY25 pre-tax EPS guidance to 70c from 80c in February.

No change to Equal-weight. Target price cut to $7.35 from $12.21. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.01 Difference: $1.34
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 71.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes IPH Ltd's Australian filing volumes fell in March, leading to -8% y/y in 2H to-date vs the market's 0.7% increase. The company's Australian market share dropped to 29.1% in March vs 29.5% in the 2H to-date.

The broker highlights global indicators remain weak, with US PCT filings down -6.9% on a quarterly rolling basis.

Based on the 12-18 month lag between US primary market filings and Australian secondary market activity, the broker reckons the current Australian activity correlates with weak US activity.

No change to forecasts. Target unchanged at $6.75. Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $2.22
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans' short-term conviction on oil has been weakened by the uncertain backdrop of trade war, prompting the broker to consider three oil price scenarios and their impact on oil stocks.

In the base-case scenario of a US$70-80/bbl price (vs US$74/bbl now), the broker sees an improvement in Karoon Energy's valuation. In the oversupply bear case scenario of a US$50-60/bbl price, the company will be supported by its flexible capex.

And in the supply-crunch bull case of US$90-110/bbl price, the broker sees the company emerging as a high-beta winner.

The broker trimmed dividend payout ratio following a regular review, leading to downgrades in FY25-26 DPS forecasts.

Add. Target unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.78
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

LendLease has completed the sale of its UK construction business, observes Citi, marking the company's exit from international construction following the sale of its US and Asian construction operations.

The company also provided an investment management update, highlighting the introduction of two new investment partners in the Investment management platform, Sotetsu Urban Creates and Yasuda Real Estate.

Until the earnings outlook improves or there is greater certainty on the buyback (from future asset sales), Citi remains Neutral rated. The $7.50 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $1.52
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reaffirms the recently upgraded Overweight rating on Lovisa Holdings and highlights the stock as the preferred pick in small cap retail.

The analyst tackles five investor concerns, highlighting the new store run rate has improved post a slowdown period, and there is upside risk to consensus expectations of 110–115 net adds p.a. from FY25–FY27.

The company is opening the "Jewells" new store concept in the UK, with eight stores targeted, while the CEO transition is being supported by Brett Blundy.

Other points include: Lovisa is well positioned to handle competition; the company is risk-managing new stores in lower GDP countries; and there is believed to be a cost margin hedge, as inflation eases.

Overweight rating and $31.50 target price retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $23.93 Difference: $7.57
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains the strategic refocusing of Macquarie Group by bringing MacCap and MAM, the managed funds, together to facilitate private credit lending using both the group's balance sheet and external client funds.

The analyst highlights MAM is developing a new, larger, and more diversified asset origination platform, which should assist in growing assets under management.

Macquarie also announced MAM's Bermuda reinsurer InEvo Re transaction with a UK insurer, as life insurance is becoming a fundraising channel for alternative asset managers, the broker notes. At the same time, MAM is lowering balance sheet investments in renewable energy projects to free up capital.

No change to Outperform rating and $224 target price. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $224.00 Current Price is $197.06 Difference: $26.94
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $219.91, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights that in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Citi retains a Buy rating on Newmont Corp with an unchanged target price of $73.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $77.93 Difference: minus $4.93 (current price is over target).
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $81.90, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights that in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Citi believes Evolution Mining ((EVN)) will continue to outperform Northern Star Resources. The target price for Northern Star rises to $20 from $18 on the back of a lift in EPS forecasts of 2% for FY25 and 11% for FY26. Neutral rated.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.37 Difference: $1.63
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.19, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates OPT as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

Bell Potter notes the failure of Opthea's two global phase 3 trials is the "absolute worst-case" outcome, forcing the company to discontinue further development of sozinibercept.

While this does not automatically terminate the company's DFA agreement, the broker notes bankruptcy could provide such grounds.

The broker highlights the company had US$100m cash at the end of March, which wouldn't be sufficient to repay DFA investors once vendor contracts are paid out.

Target dropped to $0.05 from $1.30. Rating downgraded to Sell from Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If OPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates POL as Speculative Buy (1) -

On a recent visit to Cobar, Ord Minnett observed significant progress towards first production in May at Polymetals Resources' Endeavor mine.

The broker raised its near-term cost estimate on higher diesel costs, but this is offset by model roll-forward.

Target price lifts to $1.35 from $1.30. Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.48
If POL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights that in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Citi lifts EPS forecasts for Perseus Mining by 3% in FY25 and 2% in FY26. Target price rises to $3.60 from $3.20. No change to Neutral/High risk rating.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.23
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Citi stresses gold equities are currently discounting a US$2,250–US$2,500/oz gold price versus the current spot price of US$3,090/oz.

The analyst highlights that in previous gold bull cycles, gold companies have priced in higher gold prices than the spot market level, indicating the gold sector still has capacity to re-rate. This cycle, there is a greater probability of margins rising.

Citi's commodity team is forecasting a gold price of around US$3,600/oz by 4Q 2025 but uses a more conservative US$3,100/oz base case assumption.

The analyst raises the long-term real gold price forecast to US$2,200/oz from US$2,000/oz.

Citi retains a Neutral rating on Regis Resources with a higher target price of $4.10 from $3.40. The broker lifts EPS estimates by 15% for FY25 and FY26.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.16
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Hold (3) -

Morgans' short-term conviction on oil has been weakened by the uncertain backdrop of trade war, prompting the broker to consider three oil price scenarios and their impact on oil stocks.

In the base-case scenario of a US$70-80/bbl price (vs US$74/bbl now), the broker expects Santos to maintain dividends. In the oversupply bear case scenario of a US$50-60/bbl price, the company is expected to face dividend pressure.

And in the supply-crunch bull case of US$90-100/bbl price, the broker sees the company strongly re-rated.

The broker increased opex, lowered corporate and exploration expenses, and rolled forward net debt to the year end following a regular review. This led to significant downgrades in forecast FY25-26 EPS and DPS.

Hold. Target unchanged at $6.90

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: $0.13
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Shares in biotechs have been under selling pressure of late and UBS analysts draw a direct link with the resignation of Peter Marks, director of CBER (part of the US FDA) on March 28.

UBS notes Dr Marks is highly regarded and a key player in areas like cell/gene therapy and vaccines, but finds it nevertheless surprising biotech shares generally have sold off on the news.

Following conversation with an expert inside the US industry, the analysts are not worried about any major changes taking place in the short term.

They have grabbed the opportunity to repeat the fact they are high-conviction buyers of shares in Telix Pharmaceuticals, with most risks seen as positive risks for the company.

UBS is equally positive ("a buyer") about CSL shares, even though there are some concerns about the stability of flu vaccine demand in the US. CSL's valuation is nevertheless seen as attractive.

No changes made to Buy rating or $36 price target for Telix Pharmaceuticals.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $26.35 Difference: $9.65
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Westpac has provided long-term targets for its cost-to-income (CTI) and return on tangible equity (ROTE) metrics through FY29 and updated on its Unite technology simplification program.

Management is ambitiously targeting a FY29 CTI lower than the peer average, suggests the analyst, and aiming for a ROTE in FY29 above the peer average.

Morgans sees the ongoing simplification strategy as a necessary step to unlock operating leverage, though acknowledges a slow path to execution. The next major catalyst, according to the broker, is the first half 2025 result, due May 5.

The analyst has upgraded forecasts modestly and raises the target price to $29.02 from $27.85 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $29.02 Current Price is $31.57 Difference: minus $2.55 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.26, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Morgans' short-term conviction on oil has been weakened by the uncertain backdrop of trade war, prompting the broker to consider three oil price scenarios and their impact on oil stocks.

In the base-case scenario of a US$70-80/bbl price (vs US$74/bbl now), the broker expects Woodside Energy to maintain dividends. In the oversupply bear case scenario of a US$50-60/bbl price, the company is expected to face dividend pressure.

And in the supply-crunch bull case of US$90-100/bbl price, the broker sees the company strongly re-rated.

The broker rolled forward net debt balance assumption to the year end following a regular review, leading to minor upgrades to FY25-26 EPS and DPS estimates.

Add. Target unchanged at $30.1.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $23.51 Difference: $6.59
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.70, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources