Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

With this week's upcoming Default Market Offer (DMO8), Macquarie highlights government policy is to ensure replacement energy and capacity is in the system before coal plants are taken off stream and retired.

The forward power market curves appear to be inferring structural oversupply, which is putting downward pressure on pricing and volatility.

Batteries of around 2.5GW are expected to enter service in FY27, with both AGL Energy and Origin Energy ((ORG)) highlighting 50%-60% of battery revenue comes from avoided caps, so profitability of the new batteries is quickly reverting to normalised returns of circa 11%.

AGL is considered to have the best leverage to the first coal plant closures (Yallourn), and the softer outlook for electricity suppliers is reflected in EPS downgrades of circa -2% for FY27 and -28% for FY28.

The target price is lowered to $9.61 from $10.40, with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $9.61 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.06
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter proposes the AMA Group share price infers the market is not confident in the company achieving FY26 guidance for earnings (EBITDA) pre-AASB 16 of $70-$75m after an interim result of $30.5m.

The analyst believes the 2H is typically a seasonally stronger period, and the underlying 2H26 guidance only infers a similar result to the same period in the prior year.

During the earnings call, the CEO suggested the margin over 1H26 is nearing the medium-term target of 10%, which supports margin forecasts of 6.7%-8.3% for 3Q and 4Q, respectively, sufficient to see the result for the second half at the top end of guidance.

Buy rating unchanged with a $1.25 target price. No change to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.63
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter tweaks its price target for Eagers Automotive to $28.50 from $28.75, on a lower valuation, and upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold, noting the new target is some 15% above the current share price, with earnings forecasts post the 2025 result unchanged.

Deliveries were flat in January and down -3% in February y/y, but the analyst notes the softness is due to Toyota supply chain issues, which should be addressed over the year.

As OEMs look to increase Australian volumes in 2026, it is anticipated volumes will rebound over the coming months, and deliveries will be consistent with last year at 1.2m.

The current PER valuation below 20x is viewed as attractive.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $21.11 Difference: $7.39
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.43, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Astron's updated resource and reserve estimate for the Donald Project confirms significant heavy rare earth exposure, including dysprosium and terbium, strengthening its strategic importance to Western rare earth supply chains.

Morgans notes the project is expected to produce around 279kt of rare earth element concentrate over its life of mine, including approximately 4.5kt of Dy oxide and 1.1kt of Tb oxide.

Astron’s joint venture with Energy Fuels provides strategic backing, with Donald expected to supply rare earth concentrate to the White Mesa Mill in the US, where rare earth prices are currently higher than in China.

The analyst increases valuation by 10% to $373m following model updates, reflecting revised production assumptions and commodity price forecasts.

Speculative Buy retained with a $0.90 target price, lowered due to a mechanical share count adjustment following the company’s redomicile to Australia, with no change to underlying equity value.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.235
If ATR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the Middle East conflict is lifting thermal coal, aluminium and iron ore prices, reflecting tightening energy markets, production disruption and rising shipping costs, which steepen the cost curve.

Regarding iron ore, the broker notes BHP Group's latest shipments appear slightly soft due to typical seasonality, though the usual June quarter uplift should support FY26 guidance of 284-296mt.

Buy rating and $52 target maintained.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $51.23 Difference: $0.77
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.58, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Morgans espouses a "call to action" post 1H26 healthcare interim results, where it was notable the reports did not confirm structural deterioration.

Alternatively, the results emphasised the growing gap between those companies operationally performing and those weighted to a 2H26 earnings recovery.

The sector is viewed as attractively priced, but re-rating in stocks is reliant on delivery rather than the assumption of "structural" narratives.

The broker is Overweight on CSL, Nanosonics ((NAN)), Pro Medicus ((PME)), Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) and Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)), with Hold ratings ascribed to Ansell ((ANN)), Cochlear ((COH)), Healius ((HLS)) and Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)).

Buy. Target $241.34.

Target price is $241.34 Current Price is $144.56 Difference: $96.78
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.76, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Clarity Pharmaceuticals has completed enrolment in the Amplify trial, which recruited 220 men with suspected biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer following prostatectomy.

Bell Potter notes all patients received a single injection of 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA and imaging has now been completed, with analysis to focus on comparing scan results with biopsy and conventional imaging to determine the true positive detection rate.

Existing imaging radioisotopes used to detect recurrence lack sufficient sensitivity to meet the threshold typically required for product labelling, commentary explains.

Separate data from the Co-PSMA study showed substantially higher lesion detection for 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA versus 68Ga-PSMA-11, and more detailed analysis is expected to be presented at the European Urology Association conference.

Buy (Speculative) retained with a $6.40 target price, with no changes to forecasts.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $2.89
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DNL as No Rating (-1) -

Dyno Nobel will sell Phosphate Hill to investment firm Mayfair Australia. Macquarie observes a relatively clean exit of the asset should bring a close to the separation process that commenced in 2022, leaving a pure explosives business.

The sale means Dyno Nobel no longer has operational leverage to fertiliser prices but it also removes volatility and structural cost challenges.

FY26 explosives guidance has been reiterated with improved trading conditions in North America reflecting  strong demand.

No rating or target price due to research restrictions.

Current Price is $3.04. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Buy (1) -

Frontier Digital Ventures' underlying EBIT of -$4.6m (loss) for 2025 came in comfortably ahead of company guidance for a loss of around -$10m, Morgans observes.

Group revenue of $54m declined -17% y/y and fell below guidance, reflecting the company’s strategic decision to exit low margin and loss making revenue lines.

The analyst highlights the strategic reset is already improving profitability, with earnings (EBITDA) rising 205% to $5.4m and margins expanding to 10%.

Associate businesses Zameen and PakWheels also delivered stronger results, with combined earnings (EBITDA) contribution increasing 169% y/y.

Buy rating retained with a higher target price of 56c from 55c, with EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 increased by more than 10%.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.27
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the Middle East conflict is lifting thermal coal, aluminium and iron ore prices, reflecting tightening energy markets, production disruption and rising shipping costs, which steepen the cost curve.

Regarding iron ore, following a strong first half of FY26 Fortescue is well positioned for the second half, according to the broker, with shipments tracking above the implied guidance range. A solid June quarter is expected likely placing results in the upper half.

Unchanged Neutral rating and $20 target.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.27 Difference: $0.73
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett identifies companies within its Technology sector most exposed to AI-driven cost savings and potential margin expansion. It's felt the market has not priced these opportunities.

Hansen Technologies, Vista Group ((VGL)) and ReadyTech Holdings ((RDY)) are considered stand outs, while travel names Serko ((SKO)) and SiteMinder ((SDR) also offer potential upside.

Companies with the highest R&D share of total headcount offer the greatest scope to capture AI-driven productivity gains and translate these into margin expansion, explain the analysts.

Here, Fineos Corp ((FCL)), Hansen, Gentrack Group ((GTK)) and Serko are seen as beneficiaries.

Also, offshore exposure is thought to further amplify the opportunity if AI tools reduce reliance on lower-cost offshore engineering labour. Again Hansen and Serko are thought to benefit, along with RAS Technology ((RAS)) and SiteMinder.

Unchanged Buy rating and $6.99 target for Hansen Technologies.

Target price is $6.99 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $1.67
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Overweight (1) -

Lynas Rare Earths has updated its agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths, introducing a US$110/kilogram niobium Pr floor price.

The deal includes firm offtake for 50% of the company's heavy rare earth oxides, with 75% made available for Japan and at prices/terms that represent no opportunity loss to the company, commentary highlights.

The deal supports an Overweight view, Morgan Stanley assesses, with the stock being its preferred rare earths exposure. Target is $18.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: $0.78
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.97, suggesting downside of -27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Lynas Rare Earths’ updated Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) agreement strengthens long-term pricing certainty and reduces commodity price risk, UBS notes The Malaysia LAMP licence was also renewed and extended to ten years.

The broker highlights key terms including a US$110/kg NdPr floor price, firm offtake of 5000t NdPr and 50% of heavy rare earth oxides, plus a 7200t NdPr volume commitment.

UBS expects the next phase for Lynas to focus on value and margin expansion through magnets and heavy rare earths rather than prior development and licensing milestones.

UBS retains a Buy rating and target of $17.70.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.97, suggesting downside of -27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the Middle East conflict is lifting thermal coal, aluminium and iron ore prices, reflecting tightening energy markets, production disruption and rising shipping costs, which steepen the cost curve.

Regarding iron ore, Mineral Resources has tracked well in FY26 year-to-date, according to the broker, with recent shipments running toward or above the upper end of the range implied by FY26 guidance.

Among diversified miners under UBS coverage, Mineral Resources is thought to have the greatest potential upside, supported by iron ore near US$105/t and spodumene around US$2,200/t.

Unchanged $68 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $57.45 Difference: $10.55
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

In reviewing private health insurers, Citi remains attracted to nib Holdings' trading discount to Medibank Private.

The broker holds this view despite Medibank offering greater earnings certainty and defensive appeal if market volatility persists.

Target of $5.10 and Neutral rating for Medibank Private.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $1
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie flags direct impacts from the Middle East war and supply chain issues through the Strait of Hormuz have the potential to lift freight costs.

Nick Scali and Temple & Webster ((TPW)) are disproportionately exposed to higher costs due to the large size and low retail price density of furniture.

The analyst estimates freight costs at around 8% of cost of goods sold, with a possible impact on forecast FY27 net profit after tax of over -2% to -18% for Nick Scali if higher fuel costs remain. Notably, the recent share price weakness reflects this possible impact.

Both companies are equally impacted potentially alongside household retailers importing to Australian from Asia.

Outperform rating and $21.60 target retained.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $17.40 Difference: $4.2
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.20, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

In reviewing private health insurers, Citi remains attracted to nib Holdings' trading discount to Medibank Private.

The broker holds this view despite Medibank offering greater earnings certainty and defensive appeal if market volatility persists.

Target of $7.70 and Buy rating for nib Holdings.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $1.79
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the diversity of Origin Energy has worked as oil price volatility offsets energy markets. The business is faced with falling baseload and cap pricing volatility in the energy markets and structural oversupply will weigh on FY27 and FY28.

The upside comes from volatility in the gas market with APLNG benefiting from surplus gas that can be exported in the second half.

The broker tempers the Kraken valuation as earnings take time to emerge, while proxies have experienced falls in their share prices over the last month.

Neutral and $11.25 target retained.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $11.79 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.05, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica’s 1H26 trading update indicated underlying EBIT will be slightly higher y/y and around 3% above Bell Potter’s forecast.

Blasting Solutions is tracking slightly below expectations due to the stronger AUD:USD and lower Indonesian coal production quotas, though this is partly offset by solid demand for premium products.

Digital Solutions is expected to grow around 20% y/y, below the broker’s 24% forecast, while Specialty Mining Chemicals is guided to rise about 15% y/y versus Bell Potter’s 27.2% estimate.

EPS forecasts are reduced for FY26 and increased by 6% for FY27, with the broker highlighting risks around input costs and supply, alongside tailwinds from mining production, exploration and gold processing markets.

Buy rating retained with a $28.50 target price.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $7.58
If ORI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Yesterday's trading update by Orica highlights to Citi underlying business strength and ongoing cost reductions, with premium products gaining traction amid strong gold exploration sentiment.

The broker describes conservative first-half guidance due to Indonesian coal exposure, exhange rate movements and North American supply disruption.

Blasting Solutions earnings (EBIT) were pressured in the first half as excess capacity supports supply continuity, while higher supply costs also weigh, the analyst notes.

Citi cuts its target price to $25.05 from $27.10 and retains a Buy rating. Medium-term supply contracts in the second half are expected to mitigate cost pressures and stabilise operations.

Target price is $25.05 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $4.13
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the market reacted negatively to Orica's first half update, given below-the-line costs and related cash impacts.

The company made no explicit affirmation of earnings growth over the full year, while H1 underlying EBIT is expected to be slightly higher than the prior corresponding half's $488m.

The stock has retraced from its highs, reflecting market concerns and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, reducing its target to $25.50 from $25.95.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $4.58
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Yesterday's trading update came with management guidance that Orica’s first-half FY26 earnings (EBITDA) should come in slightly above last year, driven by 15% growth in Specialty Mining Chemicals and 20% in Digital Solutions.

Ord Minnett highlights strong sodium cyanide demand from the gold sector and increased exploration activity in gold and copper markets supporting the chemicals and digital divisions.

Currency strength and lower Indonesian coal quotas have weighed on Blasting Solutions, observes the analyst, while cash flow was pressured by working capital build and supply chain disruption.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts rise by 1.3%, 1.2% and 2.0%, respectively, after incorporating $68m of the company’s $100m cost saving program into estimates.

Ord Minnett raises its rating to Buy from Accumulate and cuts its target to $25.50 from $26.00.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $4.58
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Management has indicated Orica's first-half earnings (EBITDA) would come in slightly above the prior corresponding period's $488m. UBS notes this broadly aligns with the consensus forecast for $493m.

The broker highlights weaker Blasting Solutions earnings from currency strength and softer Indonesian coal demand, while Digital Solutions and Specialty Mining Chemicals benefit from gold and copper activity.

UBS estimates the US ammonium nitrate supply outage may cost around -$60m post-tax for FY26, partly offset by a $100m cost reduction program over three years.

Buy rating and $27 target maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $6.08
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

When assessing recent market volatility from the US/Israel-Iran conflict, Citi believes Qantas Airways’ recent share price weakness is disproportionate to underlying earnings impacts.

The broker estimates oil price and refining margin changes imply an around -$70-90m pretax impact over ten days, equating to a -3-4% downgrade to its FY26 profit estimate.

The current low-mid teens share price decline implies disruption lasting around 1-2 months, longer than the analyst’s base-case outlook.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $12.10.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: $3.54
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi believes QBE Insurance's confidence in sustaining broadly stable underwriting margins is justified, despite near-zero rate increases, and should provide scope for valuation multiple expansion.

The broker’s preferred general insurance exposures (under coverage) rank QBE first, followed by Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), Suncorp Group ((SUN)), Tower ((TWR)) and Steadfast Group ((SDF)).

For QBE Insurance, target of $23.80 and Buy rating.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $20.49 Difference: $3.31
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights renewed attention on the fiscal terms governing the Oyu Tolgoi copper project following reports the Mongolian government is seeking to renegotiate elements of its agreement with Rio Tinto.

The proposed changes include reducing the interest rate on shareholder loans funding Mongolia’s 34% stake and potentially removing Rio Tinto’s annual management fee.

The broker notes Mongolia is unlikely to receive dividends until around 2037 under the current structure due to project debt and shareholder loan repayments.

Morgan Stanley values Oyu Tolgoi at US$35.7bn on a 100% basis, representing roughly 17% of Rio Tinto’s attributable asset value.

Equal-weight rating and GBP6,330p target price retained, with no change to forecasts.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $153.61 Difference: minus $13.61 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $152.17, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the Middle East conflict is lifting thermal coal, aluminium and iron ore prices, reflecting tightening energy markets, production disruption and rising shipping costs, which steepen the cost curve.

Regarding iron ore, the broker notes no material wet season disruptions have emerged so far for Rio Tinto.

UBS retains a Neutral rating with its price target unchanged at $160.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $153.61 Difference: $6.39
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $152.17, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Post interim results, Macquarie has a target price on Sigma Healthcare of $3.20, with an unchanged Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.45
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko’s Investor Day demonstrated to UBS that AI presents opportunity rather than disruption risk, following the unveiling of the Serko.ai corporate travel booking platform.

Serko.ai uses large language models trained on over 10m bookings and 400 corporate travel policies, targeting US small-to-medium businesses and mid-market customers.

The analysts expect Booking.com for Business to remain the primary growth driver through FY30, with potential new partnerships offering further revenue opportunities.

The broker retains a Buy rating, noting limited exposure to Middle East disruptions. Target price slips to NZ$4.00 from NZ$4.35.

Current Price is $1.57. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 151.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights its valuation for the base business of Telix Pharmaceuticals is well ahead of the current share price and takes a closer look at the FY25 result.

The financial performance of the precision medicine division supports internal funding of the R&D pipeline as well as commercial infrastructure, the broker notes.

Precision medicine generated gross profit of US$399m in 2025, representing 94% of the group total.

While acknowledging previous delays in commercialisation for several candidates, the broker asserts the current share price implies limited value for late-stage precision medicine candidates and indication expansion, with no value attributed to the therapeutics portfolio.

As such the risk reward appears favourable at current levels and an Overweight rating is retained with a $24.60 target. Industry View: In-Line.

The company has updated on part 1 of the phase 3 ProstACT Global trial with haematological events in line with expectations and similar rates of recovery across all three patient cohorts.

The company will submit the data to the US FDA for approval to enrol US patients in part 2 of the trial.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $13.6
If TLX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting upside of 139.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals’ experimental radiopharmaceutical therapy TLX-591 Phase 3 ProsACT Global Part 1 data removes a key uncertainty for investors, UBS suggests.

Data showed mostly grade 1–2 non-haematologic events, led by fatigue (53%) and nausea (28%). No new organ toxicities or concerning drug interactions were evident in the androgen receptor pathway inhibitor (ARPI) or docetaxel arms.

The broker views the positive 7% share price reaction as relief following low expectations, shifting investor focus toward Pixclara NDA resubmission in 1Q26 and Zircaix BLA resubmission later.

UBS retains a Buy rating and target of $31.00.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $20
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting upside of 139.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie flags direct impacts from the Middle East war and supply chain issues through the Strait of Hormuz have the potential to lift freight costs.

Nick Scali ((NCK)) and Temple & Webster are disproportionately exposed to higher costs due to the large size and low retail price density of furniture.

Both companies are equally impacted potentially alongside household retailers importing to Australian from Asia.

Outperform rating and $13.70 target retained.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $6.35
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting upside of 113.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources has approved the final investment decision on the Higginsville expansion that lifts plant capacity to 2.6mtpa from 1.6mtpa at a capital cost of -$145m.

Incorporating the updated study and pushing out nameplate at the mill to the second half of FY28 means a -5-6% decrease in FY27-28 EPS estimates, Macquarie points out.

The company expects the EPC contract award in the fourth quarter followed by construction readiness in the first quarter of FY27. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $9.70 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $3.05
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the economics and asset quality of Zip Co post first half result.

The broker expects medium-term growth will be supported by the attractive economics model despite a reset in earnings, as operating leverage moderated while the company pursues growth.

The turning point will be delivery of US segment growth in the third quarter, and the broker forecasts an improvement in both the third and fourth quarters. Third quarter outcomes will be released on April 17.

Following the review, the broker raises FY26 and FY27 estimates for earnings by 3.4% and 1.6%, respectively.

Target is $3.35. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $1.665
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 133.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources