Australian Broker Call

November 16, 2017

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 10:12 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DLX - DULUX GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
TME - TRADE ME GROUP Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
AHY  ASALEO CARE LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

Overnight Price: $1.55

Citi rates AHY as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers estimates by -3.5% for FY18 and -1.5% for FY19. The broker notes, while the company operates in mature stable categories, earnings can be volatile and the recent spike in pulp prices will result in an earnings decline.

A Neutral rating is retained as the broker considers the issue temporary. Modest earnings growth should resume in FY19. Target is raised to $1.60 from $1.55.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.05
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOG  AVEO GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors

Overnight Price: $2.70

Morgans rates AOG as Add (1) -

The company has updated on its retirement sales, noting the damage to its brand that occurred earlier in the year is moderating. Normalised sales trends are expected by the end of the first half.

Morgans is pleased that the established division guidance was not downgraded and the sales update should mean the company is in a better position to close the material gap to its peer group.

The broker maintains an Add rating and $3.61 target.

Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.91
If AOG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -54.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AST  AUSNET SERVICES

Infrastructure & Utilities

Overnight Price: $1.85

Citi rates AST as Sell (5) -

First half results beat Citi's estimates. The broker considers $1bn of unregulated infrastructure by 2021 remains a conservative target although acknowledges limitations in balance sheet capacity may push out the timeline.

The broker estimates hitting the target could add 2-4% to operating cash flow. Sell rating retained. Target is raised to $1.70 from $1.56.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AST as Hold (3) -

The company reported a first half result which beat Deutsche Bank's estimates by 10%. The broker's FY18 forecasts for net profit increase 4% to reflect further realisation of cost reductions into the second half.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $1.65 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AST as Outperform (1) -

Ausnet's revenue result came in ahead of forecast but the strength does not necessarily translate into material upgrades, the broker points out. Both electricity transmission and distribution are revenue capped.

Upside to valuation would stem from the successful implementation of non-regulated transmission asset growth, the broker suggests. The opportunity is attractive given new renewable plants being commissioned. Ausnet should win its fair share and has the balance sheet to support funding.

Outperform, target rises to $1.91 from $1.82.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.06
If AST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AST as Hold (3) -

First half results beat forecasts but Morgans expects growth to moderate in FY18. The company does not believe revenue will be strong in the second half because of regulated revenue limits and rebates.

The working capital improvement is also expected to largely reverse in the second half. Morgans retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $1.77 from $1.76.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AST as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts, driven by efficiency benefits and a strong performance from the gas business. The broker notes 85% of total revenue from the regulated business is now locked in until FY20.

Despite the pleasing result, the broker maintains a Hold rating as the stock is trading in line with the revised target of $1.88, up from $1.85.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.03
If AST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWE  AWE LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $0.56

Citi rates AWE as Neutral (3) -

The company plans to raise $38m from an institutional placement and an additional $10m via a share purchase plan. The intention is to strengthen the balance sheet ahead of Waitsia gas contracting and refinancing the corporate debt facility.

Citi considers the capital raising sensible but, at the current share price, does not consider the investment case compelling enough and retains a Neutral/High Risk rating. Target is reduced to $0.59 from $0.60.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.03
If AWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 560.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 280.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -

The company is raising $38m via an institutional placement and will also undertake a $10m share purchase plan. Proceeds will pay down debt and fund the development of Waitsia stage 2.

Deutsche Bank observes the transaction provides relief, as ongoing development activity at Waitsia is weighing on the balance sheet, and is a well timed exercise given the recent rally in the share price.

Hold rating retained. Target is $0.45.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 280.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRR  CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT

REITs

Overnight Price: $2.84

Morgans rates CRR as Add (1) -

All acquisitions associated with the IPO have settled. The company's portfolio now comprises 67 service stations valued at $312.9m with a weighted average lease expiry of 13.1 years.

Morgans incorporates the latest acquisitions into forecasts but makes no material changes to estimates. The broker retains an Add rating and $3.14 target.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.3
If CRR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.55 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DLX  DULUX GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $8.00

ADDED

Citi rates DLX as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

FY17 results were solid and, as market conditions are broadly supportive, guidance is for further profit growth in FY18.

Nevertheless, Citi observes headwinds are emerging from rising raw material costs and softening lead indicators for construction approvals and turnover.

The broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral on valuation grounds. Target is raised to $7.50 from $6.64.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates DLX as Sell (5) -

FY17 results were in line with expectations. Deutsche Bank notes a number of headwinds emerging in FY18, including the commissioning of a new paint plant, higher raw material costs and increased competition from the recently merged Sherwin Williams-Valspar.

FY18 earnings estimates are raised by 5%. Sell rating retained. Target is raised to $5.70 from $5.40..

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates DLX as Neutral (3) -

Dulux' result marginally beat the broker. The core A&NZ business performed ahead of expectation and stronger incremental contributions were made by cabinets and garage doors.

Dulux' quality and earnings visibility are drawcards, the broker suggests, but valuation is back at all-time highs. Growth options are emerging but they are longer term. Neutral retained, target rises to $8.00 from $6.76.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: $0
If DLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates DLX as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were largely in line with expectations. Morgans notes solid earnings growth across most operating divisions. 

Management has guided to FY18 net profit being higher than FY17, subject to economic conditions. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $7.47 from $7.25.

Target price is $7.47 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates DLX as Lighten (4) -

FY17 results were in line with Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker observes an impressive track record of consistent earnings and dividend growth but believes the outlook will disappoint those expecting history to be repeated.

Macro support is fading in the domestic market and input costs are rising. Earnings growth is expected to be modest and carry more risk and the broker does not believe this is factored into the share price. Lighten retained. Target is raised to $6.50 from $6.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates DLX as Sell (5) -

Underlying net profit was ahead of UBS. The result was largely driven by strength in the non-paints businesses. The broker upgrades FY18-20 estimates by 2-3%.

While recognising the company's dominant position in the Australian paint and decorative market, the broker envisages limited scope for outperformance over the medium term.

Sell rating retained. Target rises to $6.30 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXJ  FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $1.07

Macquarie rates FXJ as Neutral (3) -

With Domain set to go it alone from today, the broker is back from restriction to set a $1.05 target for the remainder of Fairfax and a Neutral rating. Fairfax's most valuable asset will be the 60% shareholding it retains in Domain, the broker notes.

Otherwise, the structurally challenged legacy print business will need to be further restructured. There's a prospect of M&A under easier media laws, but the broker can't see much synergy to capture.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If FXJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of -4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of 1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

Overnight Price: $3.77

Deutsche Bank rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank notes sales for the four months ending October 31 revealed strong momentum in the Australian franchise operations. Total sales increased 4.8% for the period.

The broker considers this a good outcome given increasing concerns around consumer sentiment and the potential softening in housing construction. This level of sales growth should be sufficient to drive further operating leverage and margin expansion.

Buy retained. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $1.73
If HVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Following Harvey Norman's four month trading update, the broker has made no changes to forecasts. Comparable sales are strong but now slowing and earnings margins are at peak levels.

Management remains confident, but the broker would need more compelling value to move off Neutral and a $4.35 target, despite a 7.2% yield being attractive.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.58
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes core Australian franchisee sales increased 4.0% over the first four months to October, like-for-like, and overall sales growth improved to about 4.8% over September and October versus 3.2% in July and August.

The broker retains its concerns around the consumer and the arrival of Amazon, although believes the impact on Harvey Norman will be somewhat less than for other retailers.

Lighten rating retained. Target is $3.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Australian franchisee sales are up 4.8% and UBS finds the top line trends particularly pleasing in the context of weaker retail conditions. Elsewhere, like-for-like sales were strong.

The broker continues to envisage upside to medium-longer term estimates, given the company's lower exposure to Amazon and the potential for capital management.

Buy rating and $5.00 target retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $1.23
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $3.88

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -

The company's FY17 result was driven by the benefits of its business excellence program as well as increased demand for explosives and an initial contribution from the WALA plant.

Ord Minnett found the result not as bad as feared, considering weak commodity prices. The broker believes the company is entering a period of earnings growth and strong cash flow and maintains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $4.30 from $3.80.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.42
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MOE  MOELIS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $6.10

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates MOE as Hold (3) -

The company has upgraded 2017 guidance by more than 15%, expecting operating earnings of at least $38m. Ord Minnett notes corporate advisory has had a particularly good year.

The broker believes strong growth will be harder to achieve in FY18, as the corporate advisory division will have to cycle a big year. The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $5.72 from $5.32.

Target price is $5.72 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If MOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.97.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX  OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $1.38

Macquarie rates OFX as Outperform (1) -

Ozforex' profit result fell short of the broker, hampered by low volatility and a strong A$. Operational metrics were broadly positive.

In its first update since May the broker has taken a knife to earnings forecasts to reflect fewer active clients, lower average trade value and lower yield per trade. Target falls to $1.54 from $1.75. The broker nevertheless sees support from operational metrics and retains Outperform, expecting financial performance to follow.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.16
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

Rare Earth & Minerals

Overnight Price: $6.06

Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank recently visited the Olaroz lithium brine operation. The problems with pond management are largely fixed and the broker expects the system will stabilise and deliver more consistent head grade to the plant.

An investment decision on phase 2 is expected early in the March quarter. Hold rating retained. Target is $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 654.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 54.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH  PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Paper & Packaging

Overnight Price: $5.81

Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank considers the acquisition of CSI Asia and GPC Guangzhou to be slightly positive, as these are complementary businesses and will enhance the company's presence  in the region.

The acquisitions will be funded via a $176m equity raising. Deutsche Bank reduces forecasts for earnings per share by -1-3% to reflect the net impact of the acquisitions and the equity raising.

Buy rating and $6.65 target retained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: $0.84
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact has announced an equity raising to fund two Asian acquisition sand to reduce debt. The company expects the deals to be mildly accretive in FY19.

The broker expects consensus earnings downgrades following a weak first half but notes valuation is not demanding at a -10% discount to larger peers Orora ((ORA)) and Amcor ((AMC)). But Pact needs to show a sustainable return to positive revenue growth.

Neutral retained. Target falls to $5.77 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.77 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.90 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates PGH as Hold (3) -

The company has announced the acquisition of CSI Asia and GPC Asia for $142m as well as ECP Industries for $11.7m. To fund the acquisitions the company will undertake a $176m equity raising via an entitlement offer.

Morgans notes the first four months of trading has shown early signs of organic growth and sales are trending in the right direction despite a slow start to the New Zealand dairy season. The broker increases FY18 estimates for earnings by 1%.

 Hold rating retained and the target falls to $5.37 from $5.55.

Target price is $5.37 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If PGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

Overnight Price: $2.58

UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

Rival DP World will increase infrastructure surcharges across its four ports. UBS believes there is an opportunity for Qube's Patrick joint venture to also increase charges.

On the broker's estimates, if Qube matches the higher charges announced by DP World, FY19 earnings per share could rise by 7%.

Neutral. Target is $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.22
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHL  RURALCO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

Overnight Price: $2.90

Morgans rates RHL as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were stronger than Morgans expected, with underlying net profit rising 95% and driven by growth in rural supplies, higher livestock prices and improved real estate activity.

Morgans notes the initial contribution from recent acquisitions was encouraging while the weak operating cash flow was the main shortcoming. This is expected to reverse in FY18.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $3.15 from $3.35.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.25
If RHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.36.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TME  TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

Overnight Price: $4.08

ADDED

Citi rates TME as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes the stock has been sold down since its peak in July on concerns about the potential impact of Amazon and Facebook Marketplace, as well as rising costs. Citi considers the competitive threat is overdone and the cost base should now reached a sustainable level.

The broker raises estimates for earnings per share by 1-2% to reflect the acceleration of revenue growth in motors and envisages scope for upgrades as cyclical headwinds in property subside. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target to $4.80 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.72
If TME meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.72 cents and EPS of 22.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.65 cents and EPS of 24.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AHY ASALEO CARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.55
AOG AVEO Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.70
AST AUSNET SERVICES Sell - Citi Overnight Price $1.85
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.85
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.85
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.85
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.85
AWE AWE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.56
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.56
CRR CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.84
DLX DULUX GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $8.00
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.00
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.00
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $8.00
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.00
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $8.00
FXJ FAIRFAX MEDIA Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.07
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.77
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.77
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.77
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.77
IPL INCITEC PIVOT Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.88
MOE MOELIS AUSTRALIA Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.10
OFX OZFOREX GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.38
ORE OROCOBRE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.06
PGH PACT GROUP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.81
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.81
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.81
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.58
RHL RURALCO Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.90
TME TRADE ME GROUP Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.08
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

3. Hold

15

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

4

Thursday 16 November 2017

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.