Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Due to the recent strength in the a2 Milk Co share price, Bell Potter downgrades the stock to Sell from Hold as much of the rally has been generated from better sentiment around China stimulus.

The analyst observes trade flows to China are up year-to-date on the previous year but continue to be below the run rates of the 2H24, and there is ongoing scope for soft volumes between Australia and China.

Cost of goods sold has also risen 5% since FY24 results, the broker highlights, and major supermarkets have announced a decline in generic milk prices of -5c/l. a2 Milk Co reported NZ$190m in revenue from liquid dairy in FY24 with the majority in Australia.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -2% in FY25 and -2% in FY26.

Sell rated with a fall in target price to $6.10 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.42 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources announced gold production of 18.4koz which was broadly in line with Bell Potter's estimate for 1Q25.

The gold sale price was higher than anticipated and all-in-sustaining costs lower than forecast.

Cash on the balance sheet fell to $40.2m from $45.5m.

Due to a rise in gold price forecasts, Bell Potter increases earnings estimates by 12% in FY25 and 11% in FY26.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $1.25 from $1.10 on higher gold price forecasts.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.765
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 158% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights the increasing geo-political risks of conducting business in France, with the proposed supplemental tax bill which has the potential to impact on Atlas Arteria's APRR, of which the operator has a 31% stake.

The tax has yet to be approved. The analyst estimates a circa -11c per share impact on distributable cash flow in FY25 to FY26 if the tax is approved. A similar impact would be expected on the forecast valuation.

Target eases to $4.76 from $4.97 which includes a premium for a potential takeover. Hold retained.

Target price is $4.76 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ATA as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While FY25 guidance already implies a step up in organic growth to 9% from 6% in FY24, Shaw and Partners highlights further upside as Gen-AI moves from the experimentation phase to mainstream adoption over time.

Revenue growth for global peers like Accenture are already starting to accelerate, highlight the analysts, noting Accenture's stock price tends to correlate with the Atturra share price.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $1.40 target are retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.26
If ATA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the start of the 2024/25 season appears to be positive, including higher domestic milk production and skim milk powder pricing.

The analyst points to supermarkets reducing the price of generic milk by -5c per litre which equates to an estimated circa $8m cost for Bega Cheese year-on-year. The company has an 11% market share in supermarket sales.

Improved macro tailwinds are expected to offset the price decrease, so no change to the broker's earnings estimates.

Target price lifts to $6.45 from $5.75 due to a higher valuation multiple. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $1.2
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CHN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Chalice Mining announced its Gonneville nickel and copper project in WA has been awarded major project status from the Federal Government.

Bell Potter highlights this award offers special extra support and approvals as it moves through the Commonwealth planning processes.

As very few projects in the critical mineral space have been awarded this status, the analyst believes it is testament to the Gonneville project and lowers development risks.

Speculative Buy rating ad $5.15 target unchanged.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $3.525
If CHN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 217% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 79.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Post the September guidance downgrade from Coronado Global Resources due to higher rainfall in August, Bell Potter expects saleable production at Curragh to be softer in the quarterly update.

The analyst expects sale of inventory over 2H24 will offer some offset to lower production.

Earnings forecasts are marked-to-market for coal prices over 3Q24 which results in a fall in EPS estimates to a higher loss in 2024 and a slight increase of 1% in 2025.

Target price falls to $1.65 from $1.70. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.5
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 48.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CWP as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners' $7.00 target (current share price $5.83) for Cedar Woods Properties would likely be achieved should the Australia 10-year bond rate fall back toward 3.5% from above 4%, highlights Shaw and Partners.

Separately, the analyst had just returned from visiting two key Cedar Woods assets: Williams Landing (13ha of mixed-use, high-value land to be developed in the town centre); and Mason Quarter (residential project in Wollert, Victoria.)

The broker anticipates another 45c in share value sourced from the undeveloped land at Williams Landing.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $7.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $1.2
If CWP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.88, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes the agreement for GenusPlus Group to acquire shares in Partum Engineering which specialises in design and feasibility services for transmission lines. The company is a provider of engineering services to GenusPlus Group.

The broker believes the acquisition is "strategic" and enhances the group's inhouse expertise and capabilities.

Target price rises to $3 from $2.90. Buy rating retained.

Bell Potter lifts EPS estimates by 3% in FY25 and 4% in FY26.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.38
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

In preparation for upcoming quarterly reporting, Macquarie reviews its coverage of Australian lithium producers.

For IGO Ltd, the broker forecasts a 5% beat against the consensus forecast for spodumene production in the September quarter.

The analyst forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $130m, around -1% below the consensus estimate.

The Outperform rating and $5.60 target are reiterated. 

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $0.13
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Lotus Resources announced an earlier restart of its Kayelekera Mine in 3Q2025 which will result in some of the upfront costs being deferred according to Bell Potter.

The capital restart cost is now expected at -US$49.7m with total capital cost including deferred at -US$89.2m, a rise of 1.7%.

Changes to the ore sorting upgrade, delay to the connection of the electricity grid and ground stabilisation for the plant's terrace are the essential changes, the analyst notes.

Adjusting for the update, Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -46% in FY26.

Speculative Buy rating and 50c target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.23
If LOT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 88.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOT as Outperform (1) -

Management at Lotus Resources has brought forward the restart timeline for the Kayelekera project to 8-10 months from 15 months, observes Macquarie.

Also, by delaying some long-lead capex items, explains the broker, management lowered the up-front capex target to -US$50m from -US$88m.

Outperform rating. The target rises to 42c from 40c.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.15
If LOT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 88.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In preparation for upcoming quarterly reporting, Macquarie reviews its coverage of Australian lithium producers.

The September quarter results are somewhat academic for Arcadium Lithium given the recent takeover offer from Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

The analyst forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of US$167m, -2% below the consensus estimate.

The broker raises its target for Arcadium to $8.70 to align with Rio’s bid and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: $0.49
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Following a Living and Logistics investor day and asset tour in Sydney hosted by Mirvac Group, the analysts at Macquarie highlight management's new focus.

The aim is to improve cashflow resilience by increasing exposure to Living Sectors and Industrial, while reducing exposure to Office, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights Living sectors are supported by attractive market fundamentals and suggests Mirvac is well placed to capitalise on these.

The Outperform rating and $2.07 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Hold (3) -

Mirvac Group's recent investor day highlighted to the analyst at Ord Minnett management's ability to develop and deliver projects across
the group's diversified portfolio.

For the residential business, management forecasts a rebound for gross margins to a range of between 18-22% by FY26.

The residential business includes apartments, master-planned communities, build-to-rent, and land lease developments, explains the analyst.

The target falls to $2.15 from $2.20. Hold.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In preparation for upcoming quarterly reporting, Macquarie reviews its coverage of Australian lithium producers.

The broker forecasts Mineral Resources will slightly miss the consensus production estimate for spodumene in the September quarter, while iron ore should be in line with expectation.

The analyst forecasts earnings will beat the consensus estimate by around 9%. The broker’s underlying loss forecast of -$38m for H1 is materially less than the -$148m expected due to Macquarie’s higher assumed opex savings in the period.

Macquarie raises its target for Mineral Resources by 18% to $47.00 due to improved forecasts for near-term earnings, and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform after the recent share price rise.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $50.67 Difference: minus $3.67 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.43, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PER as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights the 70%-plus rally in Percheron Therapeutics shareprice on over four times average volumes in the previous three months.

From a technical perspective, the price has moved through two resistance levels of 10c and 11c. with another at 15c. The broker observes the interest is most likely from speculative investors post the positive toxicology readout which lowers US regulatory risks.

Another positive report is anticipated in December. The Speculative Buy rating and 24c target are retained.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.11
If PER meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -

In preparation for upcoming quarterly reporting, Macquarie reviews its coverage of Australian lithium producers.

For Pilbara Minerals, the broker forecasts a 5% beat against the consensus forecast for shipments in the September quarter.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for Pilbara Minerals and offers no rating or target price.

Current Price is $2.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Pantoro reported 1Q25 results with lower than forecast production due to major mechanical issues at the processing plant, Bell Potter highlights. All-in-sustaining costs were also higher than expected.

The company ended the quarter with cash and bullion of $112.m up from $103m in the previous quarter.

Bell Potter lifts EPS forecasts by 27% in FY25 and 40% in FY26 due to higher gold price forecasts. 

The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy on a higher target price of 12.5c from 10c, as much of the earnings improvement is believed to be already discounted in the share price.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes ResMed is due to report 1Q25 earnings on Oct 25. The broker expects US$1.254bn in revenue which is above consensus by 5% because of higher forecast US device sales, over 10% above consensus.

In contrast, the analyst is more cautious on the gross margin, though its estimate is in line with EBIT margin consensus because of improved operational cost controls.

The analyst points to higher-than-consensus EPS estimates. At 26x forecast FY26 EPS, UBS believes the stock is neither cheap nor expensive compared to US medtech peers. GLP-1s are viewed as a risk in the longer term.

Neutral rated. Target US$225.

Current Price is $35.60. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $35.83, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Coverage of Regis Resources has been transferred to a new analyst, resulting in an upgrade in the target price to $3.22 from $2.01.

The increase is attributed to the closure of hedging, the rise in gold prices and lack of development at McPhillamy's, due to the Federal Government's end to the permitting process.

The analyst points to improved earnings for Duketon South and Tropicana.

No change to Add rating. Target price is lifted to $3.22 from $2.01.

Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.93
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi observes some takeaways from WEB Travels' trading update for SiteMinder.

A pick-up in hotel bookings in September is viewed as a positive for SiteMinder's transaction revenue growth. The company experienced a deceleration in booking volumes to 4% in June and July was soft.

WEB Travels pointed to bookings improvements of 22% growth in the six months to September which is a lift from 20% growth at the previous update at the end of August.

Citi is forecasting 35% annual growth in transaction revenue for SiteMinder in 1H25, which is the same as in 2H24.

Buy rating with $7.20 target price.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $0.55
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

After identifying one of the key drivers of higher pricing is enhanced trust and customer usability of the platform, management at Seek has targeted HR and recruitment technology company Xref ((XF1)).

Management will enter into exclusive due diligence for four weeks to acquire 100% of Xref for around -$45m.

Xref specialises in reference and pre-employment checks, employee engagement and exit surveys.

The target for Seek rises to $28 from $25 on a higher assumed multiple to align with peer valuations, explains Macquarie.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.24 Difference: $2.76
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.68, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

In headline news, UBS highlights Seek is looking to acquire Xref ((XF1)) for an enterprise value of $45m or 21.8c per share.

The broker observes Xref is a reference checking platform, with the deal to expand on the partnership which commenced in February 2024 with Certsy.

Seek is Buy rated with a $25.40 target price.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $25.24 Difference: $0.16
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.68, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Prior to quarterly reporting by Santos on October 17, Macquarie forecasts 3Q production and revenue of 21.1mmboe and US$1,234m, respectively.

Varanus Island output was weak in July and September, notes the analyst, and weakness has carried over into October. Varanus is currently offline and not expected to start up again until October 18.

Santos looks on track for the middle of 2024 production guidance, assures the broker.

The target falls by -1% to $8.65. Outperform.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.47
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as No Rating (-1) -

Management at TPG Telecom is reviewing capital management options following the sale for $5,250m of its Enterprise, Government & Wholesale (EGW) assets.

The broker determines around $4,600m will be available for capital management, noting most large asset sales by ASX-listed companies in recent times have resulted in a capital return.

Special dividends typically are linked to companies with large franking credit balances, highlights the analyst, noting TPG had $62m of franking credits at June 30 this year.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for TPG Telecom and offers no rating or target price.

Current Price is $4.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points out TPG Telecom's remaining assets are of lower quality and lower growth and the net proceeds of $4.7bn from the sale of fibre and fixed EGW assets was lower-than-expected.

On the other hand, the cash inflow will alleviate balance sheet concerns and TPG will become a capex-light business, highlight the analysts.

The broker points out mid cap telco peers Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) and Superloop ((SLC)) trade on similar multiples but offer a clearer growth path. The target is reduced to $4.40 from $4.50. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

TPG Telecom has sold its fibre network infrastructure assets and its fixed-line enterprise, government and wholesale business to Vocus Group for $5.25bn.

While details haven't been provided, notes Ord Minnett, management will distribute net proceeds of between $4.65-4.75bn via a return of capital to shareholders and for investment in the mobile business.

The target price falls to $5.25 from $5.50 and the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

While potential for share price upside exists, especially if the broker's capital management forecast is too low, the analyst is concerned by overhang risks given TPG's messy shareholder structure and history.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.37
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi believes the B2B for WEB Travel is changing "rapidly" given two negative updates in the last month. The analyst is querying the visibility around earnings forecasts at a time when the broader hotel industry is showing some resilience and "strength".

The downward revision in gross margins to 6.5% suggests to the broker there are structural changes in the industry including increased competition from two larger players, and a new start up from former WEB Travel employees.

Citi lowers EPS forecasts by -33.7% in FY25 and -19.8% in FY26.

Accordingly, target price falls to $5.55 from $8.25. The stock is downgraded to Neutral, High Risk from Buy.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $1.02
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

In WEB Travel's preliminary 1H trading update, management noted long-term total transaction value (TTV)/revenue should stabilise at around 6.5% (consensus was at 7%) as a result of changing geographic and business mix.

The update revealed the TTV/Revenue ratio had fallen to 6.4%.

The broker had previously noted B2B take-rates were contining to shift lower. Post the trading update, the analysts expect forecasts will need to be rebased lower.

Equal-weight rating. Target $7.00. Industry View: In-line. 

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $2.47
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WEB as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans highlights the robust growth in total travel volumes for WEB Travel is being achieved via price discounting which has impacted on margins, resulting in a “disappointing” trading update.

As a preview to 1H25 earnings report on Nov 20, management's preliminary results showed a fall in revenue margin to around 6.4% versus the previous guidance of 7%.

European margin decline is isolated as the culprit due to aggressive competitive pricing. The broker lowers net profit after tax estimates by -33.9% in FY25 and -15.9% in FY26.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add. Target price falls to $5.25 from $8.60.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.72
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners slashes its target for WEB Travel to $6.10 from $9.80 (pre demerger) after management lowered guidance for revenue margins in FY25/FY26. The Buy rating is maintained.

Factors contributing to the lower guidance, according to management, are a challenging European trading environment and increasing override payments.

The broker suspects macroeconomic weakness in Europe is compounding one-off factors and anticipates overrides will pressure
revenue margins into FY26.

Note: Overrides are payments made to WebBeds customers, such as online travel agents and travel agents, once they hit certain volume/total transaction value (TTV) thresholds.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $1.57
If WEB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter previews the upcoming quarterly report from Whitehaven Coal with expectations of heavy wet weather in August impacting on the Blackwater region at over three times above the 10-year average.

The analyst has slightly lowered 1Q25 production estimate at Blackwater, while increased rail capacity at Daunia is anticipated to boost sales from an inventory increase.

Post mark-to-market for coal prices, the broker lowers EPS forecasts by -38% in FY25 and -17% in FY26.

Unchanged Buy rating and target price declines to $9 from $9.30.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $1.68
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources