Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ABY as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Adore Beauty with a Hold rating and target price of $1.25.

From a pure-play online retailer, the company began transitioning to an omni-channel retailer in November 2024 after rolling out stores under iKou and its own brand. To date, 11 stores have been opened and the target is for over 25 stores by FY27.

The company is aiming to double EBITDA margin to over 8% by FY27 from 4.1% in FY25, and EBIT margin to over 5% from 2%.

The broker sees store rollouts and private label expansion as key catalysts going ahead.

Overall, the broker sees the stock as an attractive long-term growth strategy. Near-term catalysts are largely priced in, making this more of a hold/watch story until execution proves margin gains in the broker's view.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.045
If ABY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley admits it misjudged the business cycle for Audinate Group, and the company now needs to deliver tangible proof (show-me) to be re-rated.

The broker still believes the long-term potential remains attractive, but FY26 brings higher opex, peak cash burn, and limited catalysts.

FY26 EBITDA forecast downgraded to -$5.4m loss from $4.2m, and FY27 lowered to -$1.2m loss from $11.3m.

Target cut sharply to $5 from $11. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.35
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's (BMA) announcement to suspend operations at the Saraji South mine and cut -750 jobs due to a combination of market conditions and the Queensland government's coal royalties scheme.

A media statement was issued vs an announcement on the ASX, prompting the broker to assume it has no material impact on BHP Group's production guidance. 

The broker also believes there is potential for additional tonnes from elsewhere in the BMA portfolio to maintain output in the medium term.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $46.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $40.31 Difference: $6.19
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.48, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths reported strong drilling results at the Sulista target, outlining a conceptual exploration target of 12–18Mt at 4–6% TREO.

Ord Minnett notes Sulista remains an early-stage development and lower priority than Monte Alto, but it is a possible future expansion to Monte Alto.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $2.74
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Charter Hall's inflows have almost entirely (91%) come from institutional/wholesale flows since July 22 due to the macro environment. However, this trend could shift to direct and listed platforms with the change in market conditions.

For context, the two platforms saw less than $1bn inflows over the last three years, in contrast with over 41% of funds raised during the FY15-22 period.

Macro drivers supportive of the shift include lower interest rates, equity market stabilisation and retail/HNW appetite for property vehicles.

The broker sees upside risk to its base case for $91.4bn FY28 property funds under management.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $26.35. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $26.35 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $3.48
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.71, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

A belated reaction from Macquarie to Iluka Resources' September 10 announcement to suspend production at the Cataby mine for 12 months and the Synthetic Rutile kiln for six months, effective December 1.

The broker notes weaker demand for mineral sands and synthetic rutile prompted volume cuts, and as a result, lowered its production forecasts for 4Q25 and FY26. Production restart at SR1 also pushed back by 6 months to FY27 following the company's announcement.

The broker reminds the company has a history of frequent production plan revisions, with at least seven material ones in the last two decades. If demand doesn’t recover, further deep cuts are possible within 12 months.

EPS forecast for FY25 downgraded by -50% and by -41% for FY26, but earnings forecasts lifted for FY27-30.

Neutral. Target cut to $5.80 from $6.30.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades Magellan Financial to Underperform from Neutral with a transfer of analyst coverage, and considers there to be downside risks to consensus FY26 earnings forecasts with the analyst's EPS estimates below the market by circa -7%.

The lower expectations are attributed to weaker associate profits, higher sub-advisory fees, and lower distribution income, with increased risks to a pick-up in net outflows with the departure of the Infrastructure portfolio manager, fund rating reviews, and relative performance.

Macquarie lowers its earnings forecasts by -0.4% for FY26 and -5.6% for FY27. Target price rises to $8.65 from $8.37 due to a change in valuation ascribed.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of Myer's FY25 results on 23 September, Morgan Stanley reminds FY25 was likely a transitional year on tough trading conditions, supply chain pressure and front-loaded investment.

A solid turnaround is on the cards, in the broker's view, following Apparel Brands integration, loyalty relaunch and efficiency gains. The broker expects meaningful EBIT upside over the medium term.

FY25 revenue estimated at $3.66bn, EBIT of $149m, and EBIT margin of 4.1%.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $1.00 from $1.05. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.345
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Northern Minerals published a definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the Wolverine project, which outlined an 11-year open-pit/underground operation producing 17.5ktpa xenotime concentrate,

Ord Minnett notes the base case net present value at -8% discount of $74m was softer than expected and low relative to the company's $326m market cap.

The broker revised its model to include DFS assumptions plus upside from Gambit and Dazzler deposits.

Target trimmed to 3.6c from 4c. Rating downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: minus $0.003 (current price is over target).
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Following ResMed's strong FY25 performance in the residential care software (RCS) division, Ord Minnett reassessed the outlook for the division. The net result is a 2% lift in the broker's group net profit forecast for FY28.

As background, the RCS division EBIT grew 33% y/y in FY25, exceeding the broker's forecast by 15% on tight cost control, pricing, and subscriber growth. EBIT margin expanded to 32% and the broker expects 35% margin by FY28.

The broker also notes the company's core sleep and breathing division performed strongly in FY25, expanding EBIT margin by 260bp, while competitor Philips remains absent from the US CPAP market.

No changes to EPS forecasts. Buy. Target unchanged at $48.80.

Target price is $48.80 Current Price is $40.95 Difference: $7.85
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.57, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi sees SiteMinder's recent UltraSync launch as a key positive, closing a major data gap and strengthening Dynamic Revenue Plus. Additionally, this product is seen as reinforcing SiteMinder’s role as a central hub for hoteliers.

Included in existing subscriptions, UltraSync lets hoteliers manage rate plans within Siteminder and push updates to property management systems (PMSs), explains the broker. It's felt this differentiates UltraSync from rivals and supports future pricing power.

The rollout with Oracle, Cloudbeds, Mews, and RMS covers around 20,000 of Siteminder’s 50,000 properties, with Oracle especially relevant for mid- to large-scale hotels, point out the analysts.

Citi also highlights Insights and the new Siteminder IQ AI engine as key differentiators.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth is expected to accelerate into 4Q26 from Channel Plus penetration, DR Plus uptake among larger hotels, and the payment terminal rollout. 

Buy rating. Target $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $1
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Following SiteMinder's FY25 results, Ord Minnett reviewed the detailed industry work done on the company's two new products, Channels Plus (CP) and Dynamic Revenue Plus (DRP).

Industry feedback suggested CP has significant market potential but will take longer than previously expected. In the case of DRP, the company is planning a fixed annual subscription model vs a proportion of bookings transacted model, and this is seen as a positive move.

The broker cut near-term free cash forecasts but lifted medium and long-term estimates.

Buy. Target rises to $7.97 from $7.44.

Target price is $7.97 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.97
If SDR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek's August update shows job ad volumes fell -3% year-on-year, a smaller decline than July’s -5%, with 1H26 to date tracking at -4% versus -7% in 2H25.

Citi notes this outcome is slightly better than its forecast and reflects moderating weakness in employment advertising.

The broker highlights mixed macro signals: consumer surveys point to rising unemployment expectations, which could suppress job switching, but National Australia Bank's ((NAB)) employment index suggests stronger hiring intentions.

Salary growth also ticked up 3.4% in August, and the analyst assumes 5% price growth for FY26, consistent with Seek’s practice of increasing prices ahead of wage growth.

Citi argues a tight labour market supports ad pricing but may limit RBA rate cuts, which would be a headwind for job volumes.

Buy rating. Target $31.65.

Target price is $31.65 Current Price is $28.88 Difference: $2.77
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.44, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

A third failed approach for Santos since 2018 as the XRG consortium withdrew its binding offer for the company, citing "a combination of factors" but didn't provide further details.

Citi's assumption of a smooth due diligence proved wrong, with valuation gaps, asset-level risks or strategic fit likely stumbling blocks.

The broker notes markets typically apply a discount post-deal collapse, but Woodside Energy ((WDS)) did gain 20% since May on flows rotating out of Santos.

A partial reversal will support the stock, though deal failure overhang is the main uncertainty in the broker's view. At the same time, the broker highlights the company's operational fundamentals have improved since the initial offer.

Buy. Target unchanged at $8.70.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $1.05
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Downgrade to Trim from Accumulate (4) -

Morgans notes the ADNOC-led consortium withdrew the takeover proposal for Santos, marking the third failed approach since 2018. The broker believes it has damaged the case for a corporate premium and created near-term selling pressure as arbitrage investors exit.

The broker highlights a newspaper report suggesting the consortium blamed “commercial factors” found during its assessment. In the broker's view, this could relate to findings during due diligence and/or negotiations.

Separately, the broker finds it impossible to have a view on speculation of a renewed push to break up the company's business and ADNOC's possible interest in this.

Target cut to $7.20 from $8.65 after trimming out corporate premium. Rating downgraded to Trim from Accumulate.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Sayona Mining's merger with Piedmont Lithium is now complete and a reverse stock split of 1-for-150 has been effected.

Macquarie notes the main strategic focus is the North American Lithium brownfield expansion where the company announced plans to bring forward production and improve cost profile.

The broker lifted output forecast to 280kt per year from FY32 and revised cost forecast to US$698/t, slightly above scoping study indicative cost of US$681/t.

FY26 guidance for production and shipments of 195-200kt is within consensus estimates but 7% above the broker's forecast, and cost forecast is 2% higher.

After incorporating the merger, updated plans and the guidance, target price rises to $5.50 from $0.03 (not directly comparable due to 1:150 reverse stock split). Outperform maintained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $5.48
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources