Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Golden Grove proved the headline disappointment of 29Metals' third quarter, says Citi. The company reported zinc production of just 4,700 tonnes, a sizeable -10,000 tonnes miss to market expectations amid production sequencing. 

The company did maintain guidance, noting volumes are expected to ramp up at Xantho, but capital expenditure for Golden Grove is expected to be at the top end of guidance.

As for the Capricorn Copper restart, the company notes permitting is ongoing and idle operating costs are expected to be $18m over the second half of the calendar year. 

The Neutral rating and target price of 45 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.01
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Underperform (5) -

29Metals produced 7.0kt of copper and 4.7kt of zinc in the March Q, -9% lower and -69% lower than consensus estimates of 7.7kt
and 15.4kt, respectively.

The decline in zinc production was the result of lower zinc grades from Golden Grove, Macquarie notes, driven by lower mined ore volumes from Xantho Extended. 2024 production guidance has been retained, but only around 9% of zinc guidance has been produced year to date.

29Metals is highly leveraged to base metal prices. A 10% move on spot prices implies a 45% change to the broker's earnings forecasts. Target rises to 26c from 25c on an offtake agreement, Underperform retained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Following 1Q operational results for 29Metals, Morgan Stanley suggests balance sheet pressures are now largely alleviated though recovery risks remain.

Group copper production missed forecasts by consensus and the broker by -7.9% and -18.3%, respectively, due to a softer Capricorn Copper performance. As the mine commences its shutdown due to recent rainfall, Morgan Stanley feels risks are largely priced-in.

Lower Golden Grove milling tonnes and two unplanned downtime events also resulted in misses for zinc production versus consensus and broker forecasts of -4.9% and -14.9%, respectively. Better production driven by grades is expected over the coming quarters.

Despite these production misses, Morgan Stanley sees several potential positive catalysts for 29Metals and retains an Overweight rating. Target 55c. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.11
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals saw a mixed March Q, Macquarie notes, with stronger-than-expected production from Dargues offset by softer production from Peak. The company revised its FY24 zinc production guidance due to recovery issues impacting the quarter.

Aurelia is transforming from a gold to base metals-focused company, and from FY25 some 70% of revenue exposure will come from base metals (zinc, lead, and copper).

The broker notes the miner has a strong balance sheet, cash positive and debt free. Target falls to 22c from 23c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.025
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett spotted a slightly disappointing March quarter production update from Aurelia Metals with lower zinc production at Peak to blame.

But the broker had positioned for a weak outcome and thus only small negative adjustments had to be made to forecasts.

The broker retains a view that further de-risking will be achieved on the back of much better cash flow generation ahead. Plus further progress at Federation remains in motion.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged for Aurelia Metals. Target 25c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.055
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Accumulate (2) -

Today's update features Ord Minnett's projections of a much-improved ARB Corp sales performance for H2, which supports the broker's Accumulate rating and $42.50 target price.

The broker also highlights a strong balance sheet and lower capex in FY25. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $38.97 Difference: $3.53
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.80, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Having produced the first drum of uranium from the Honeymoon mine, Boss Energy now turns its focus to ramping up to nameplate capacity of 2.45mlbs per annum, observes Bell Potter.

Also, production should be re-starting in the next two months at the 30% joint venture project in South Texas, Alta Mesa. The broker notes this re-start will make Boss one of the only listed multi-asset uranium producers with a geographically diversified portfolio.

The company has full exposure to the rising spot market, point out the analysts, making it the most leveraged play from an earnings standpoint.

The Buy rating and $6.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $1.79
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Sell (5) -

Brambles failed to deliver the upgrade Citi believes investors were looking for with its third quater update. While guidance was maintained, the broker feels the lack of upgrade implies slowing profit growth for the company. 

The broker further explains that given tough comps ahead in FY25 and FY26, growth could become tougher for Brambles. It expects after years of outsized returns as a beneficiary of the covid pandemic, Brambles is likely due for a period of consolidation.

Group wide, the company has reported 7% revenue growth year-to-date, implying sales slowed -1% quarter-on-quarter in the most recent period.

The Sell rating and target price of $14.25 are retained.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles reiterated guidanceat its update of 13-15% constant-currency earnings growth, but Macquarie has lowered its expectation to 13% from 14%.

Price was a driver of first half earnings growth but this diminished significantly in the March Q. Destocking in pool and white pallets limits organic growth, the broker notes.

The positive of the destocking cycle is the release of pallets saves on capex demands, Macquarie points out, improving cycle times and improving loss ratios thus Brambles' reiteration of the 8-10pts improvement in capex to sales, and strength in margins.

Outperform and $16.25 target retained,

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: $1.61
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Equal-weight (3) -

Brambles has continued to navigate a challenging operating environment well, suggests Morgan Stanley, with price realisation the key driver of top line growth in the 3Q. All FY24 guidance was maintained.

However, the broker points to slowing price momentum in the 3Q, as well as a slowdown in the trajectory of sales growth. Group sales revenue of US$1,591m in the 3Q was a just a 3% increase on the previous corresponding period.

Management noted destocking has continued in North America and Europe, which resulted in an additional 3m pallet returns in the quarter.

The Equal Weight rating is maintained by the broker on a full valuation. Target $15.70. Industry View: In line.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: $1.06
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Third quarter year-to-date sales (constant currency) for Brambles rose by 7%, in line with Morgans expectations and management’s unchanged FY24 guidance for 6-8% growth.

Price was the key driver of sales growth across all divisions, explains the broker, with volumes higher in Asia-Pacific but lower in the key regions of the Americas and EMEA. However, it's noted the contribution from pricing actions has slowed.

While volumes in Q3 fell by -1%, and are still being impacted by de-stocking from retailers and manufacturers across Europe and North America, explains the analyst, management noted the pace of de-stocking has begun to moderate.

The target falls to $15.15 from $15.65. Hold.

Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: $0.51
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Somewhere between late February and today, Ord Minnett's rating had shifted to Lighten, which is hereby back on Hold, as per February, via today's upgrade in response to share price weakness.

That weakness followed the latest quarterly market update. Ord Minnett whitelabels Morningstar research and thus talks about Brambles being protected by a wide-moat.

The update itself was in line with forecasts and the broker has made no changes to FY24 estimates. Fair value estimate $14 (unchanged).

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles reported group sales growth of 2% during the third quarter, noting price growth of 3% was slowing but positive while volumes remain negative.

As per UBS, slowing price was expected. The broker expects the 3% growth achieved in the period should appease some concerns about price growth turning negative. 

For the broker, the volume outcome was more disappointing. With volumes remaining depressed from consumption softness and ongoing destocking, Brambles has increased efforts to win new business in the last year.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $17.30 from $17.10.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: $2.66
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Buy (1) -

Despite weaker unit deployments due to ongoing site-readiness challenges, 3Q revenue for Chrysos was in line with Bell Potter's forecast. Quarterly minimum monthly assay payments (MMAP) per average deployed unit rose by 10% quarter-on-quarter.

FY24 guidance for units deployed halved to nine, while $45m of revenue is expected, down from the prior $48-58m range. Earnings guidance for $8.5m falls within the prior $7-17m range.

While the unit deployment guidance is disappointing, the analysts point out $45m of revenue implies a continuation of elevated MMAP per unit in the final quarter of FY24, and good prospects for FY25.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target falls to $7.60 from $8.30 to reflect lower unit deployments, lower unitised operating expenses and higher MMAP per average deployed unit.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $1.05
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates C79 as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of Chrysos with an Accumulate rating and $7.55 price target. 

Chrysos' key product, PhotonAssay, offering a significant advancement over incumbent fire assay techniques, is looking to revolutionise the gold assay industry, the broker exclaims.

Ord Minnett is convinced of long-term success, but shorter-term sees multiple risks on the horizon, including the rapid disappearance of earnings visibility and sky-high market expectations.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $1
If C79 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following a 3Q update, Shaw and Partners sticks to its positive long-term investment thesis for Chrysos, despite management lowering its unit deployment target for FY24.

Earnings (EBITDA) guidance remains within the prior range, demonstrating to the broker management is firmly in control of overall the scale-up.

While three units were deployed in the quarter (one more compared to the run rate of the previous two quarters), the company now targets nine units for FY24 (down from 18) due to site-readiness challenges, explain the analysts.

The Buy, High Risk rating is reiterated and the target eases to $7.50 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $0.95
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating for Clearview Wealth, which offers retail financial advice and a portfolio of insurance and
investment solutions.

The broker likes the company's reliable/trusted brand and diversified distribution network of over 900 dealer groups comprising more than 4,000 advisors.

Clearview also has operational excellence in product development, underwriting and claims management, in the analyst's opinion.

The company's multi-year Business Transformation Program should yield further near-term benefits, according to Morgans, helping management achieve FY26 key business targets.

A target price of 78c is set.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.175
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Equal-weight (3) -

In a sign of management's confidence in the value of HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT's assets, suggests Morgan Stanley, a $50m buyback has been announced, commencing on May 8.

The broker notes the REIT is currently trading at a -32% discount to the net tangible asset (NTA) valuation at the end of last year.

Equal-weight rating. Target $1.41. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.195
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Despite Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)) downgrading its full year volumes guidance recently, Citi reassures investors there are limited readthroughs from Ingenia Communities. 

The broker highlights Lifestyle Communities is purely focused on Victoria, while Ingenia Communities maintains a national presence with only limited exposure to the Victoria market.

Citi anticipates 450 settlements from Ingenia Communities over the full year.

The Buy rating and target price of $5.30 are retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $0.46
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LGI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for LGI to $3.25 from $2.65 after management detailed a high-conviction development pipeline at the recent investor day.

The company explained how MW capacity could be tripled across the existing portfolio, and the broker now forecasts 35MW in the 1H FY27 and 47MW in the 1H of FY29.

This additional capacity can be achieved via a combination of additional power generation and the introduction of batteries to selected sites, explain the analysts.

The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.63
If LGI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

Citi has been surprised by the issuance of a full year volumes downgrade from Lifestyle Communities, with the company now guiding to 290-310 settlements. At the midpoint, points out the broker, this is -15% lower than previous guidance. 

Being the second downgrade in as many months, Citi expects this annnouncement may leave investors nervous on the stock. However, with share price down -21% year-to-date and with the balance sheet in a better position post equity raising, Citi retains a Buy rating.

The target price decreases to $17.90 from $20.00.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: $5.58
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Yet again Lifestyle Communities' trading update came with disappointing settlement guidance for FY24 and FY25. Operating conditions in its Beachside and North-West Melbourne communities continue to weigh down the financial performance.

Ord Minnett has now positioned itself some -6% below the company's settlement guidance for FY24-FY26. While risks remain, the broker is forming the view value is starting to emerge in the (weakening) share price.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, while the price target falls to $15.80 from $16.90. EPS and DPS forecasts have received a sizeable haircut.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: $3.48
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Lifestyle Communities has now downgraded its expected settlements by -31% over two revisions, first lowering guidance -17% in February and now a further -17% today. 

As per UBS, medium-term ranges also imply FY25 will be -10% lower than current market expectations. The broker found the announcement of the downgrade to be underwhelming, noting the fundamental issue remains the company's exposure to the weak Victorian market.

Anticipating operating performance has likely troughed, UBS lifts its rating for the stock. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target price decreases to $12.85 from $14.24.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: $0.53
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects Lendlease Group's upcoming strategy day may prove a pivotal opportunity for the company, particularly in the wake of recently downgraded guidance for FY24 and limited earnings visibility over FY25 and FY26. 

The broker points out low target returns have not been met by the company for the past five years, and investors have proposed a number of options, including a full or partial exit of offshore projects, which Lendlease Group is expected to consider. 

The broker's Neutral rating reflects the balance between potential upside from a revised strategy and potential substantial execution risk.

The broker is Neutral rated with a target price of $7.10.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.59
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Add (1) -

In the wake of MA Financial's 1Q operational update, Morgans lowers its EPS forecasts to reflect ongoing subdued transaction/event-based activities and a higher investment spend.

The analyst's forecasts are also impacted by some general lending business pressures and a rise in interest expense.

Record 1Q gross inflows of $514m and net flows of $367m were rises of 43% and 74%, respectively, on the previous corresponding period.

The broker’s target slips to $5.67 from $6.07 though the Add rating is retained as the broker is encouraged by existing growth momentum for medium-term business drivers.

Target price is $5.67 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $0.98
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial's quarterly update proved broadly in line with Ord Minnett's estimates, which is usually code for small 'misses' that don't genuinely matter.

Ord Minnett has reduced FY24 forecasts by -2% but added 1% to FY25 projections. Valuation is unchanged at $7.00. Buy rating is retained.

While headwinds continue for the time being, the broker suggests overall conditions will start to ease from H2 onwards.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $2.31
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MAF as Buy (1) -

Solid flows continue for MA Financial in its first half, says UBS. The company reported asset management inflow momentum that saw assets under management increase to $9.6bn during the period, up from $9.2bn at the end of December. 

MA Money origination remains ahead of the broker's expectations, but UBS points out net interest margins continue to look soft amid competitive pressure. 

The broker considers MA Financial to be tracking roughly in line with forecasts. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.70 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $1.01
If MAF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MDR as Buy (1) -

MedAdvisor's 3Q revenue jumped by 42% on the previous corresponding period with growth in the US and A&NZ of 58% and 8%, respectively, explains Bell Potter.

The broker highlights increasing revenue diversification with growth across both vaccine and non-vaccine programs. It's expected gross margins will expand due to an ongoing shift to more digital programs and through the implementation of the company's THRiV platform.

Target rises to 47c from 44c. Buy retained.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.18
If MDR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

Morgans revisits its investment thesis for Maas Group. It's felt the trend of more growth at a lower multiple relative to peers will continue given the positive medium-term outlook.

In a nutshell, the analyst's investment thesis is based on ‘infrastructure spend in the regions driving job creation and residential housing demand’.

The broker's forecasts are unchanged, but the adopted valuation multiples are increased to reflect improving confidence in the company's earnings trajectory, and optimism implied by recent M&A activity in the Buiding Materials sector.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $5.15 from $4.35.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $0.71
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Matador Mining has released the assay results from the first 47 drillholes of the 157 hole reverse circulation (RC) drill program at the Malachite Project in the Cape Ray Zone in Newfoundland, Canada. 

The results identified two new mineralised zones located west of the 0-2 target. Similar initial results utilising the same exploration methodology has been successful in discovering multi-million ounce deposits, points out the broker.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 19c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.114
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Further details by production hub during the March quarter were released by Northern Star Resources, with the company having already pre-released its quarterly result and a revision to full year guidance.

Citi notes the company's cash margins have lifted by $30 per ounce during the quarter, underpinned by gold now trading at $3,600 per ounce. 

Golden Pike lifted head grades to a more than five year high during the quarter, while Thunderbox and Pogo both disappointed, with a mill expansion at Thunderbox likely to require additional capital expenditure.

The Neutral rating and target price of $14.50 are retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.74 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources' March Q sales and cash flow metrics had been pre-released. Costs were in line with Macquarie. FY24 sales guidance is retained, with all indications pointing to a strong finish to the year, while cost guidance was recently lifted.

The project is progressing to plan, but the broker warns that timing and cost control of the KCGM mill expansion remain important.

Outperform and $17 target retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.74 Difference: $2.26
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Production in the 3Q for Northern Star Resources missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -6% and -3%, respectively, largely due to misses at Jundee and Kalgoorlie of -8% versus consensus.

The Thunderbox Operations (TBO) also underperformed, while KCGM outperformed, note the analysts.

Costs (AISC) missed the broker's forecast by -7% but were in line with consensus.

Management maintained FY24 production guidance, but cost guidance increased for Yandal and Pogo, but fell for Kalgoorlie.

Equal-weight. Target $13.55. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $14.74 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Accumulate (2) -

Accumulate rating retained while Ord Minnett's price target has shifted to $15.60 as Northern Star Resources provided more details and background, having pre-released some financial metrics given weather impacting on its operations.

Management has deferred some capex spending and is banking on a strong finish of FY24, highlights the analyst.

Ord Minnett is increasingly having a problem with the share price and suggests there's probably better value on offer in the mid and small-cap space, nominating Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) and Red 5 ((RED)).

Forecasts have gone up.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.74 Difference: $0.86
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources pre-reported March production of 387,000 ounces, with a slight miss explained by weaker results from Yandal and Pogo says UBS. 

Despite the quarterly miss, the company maintained full year guidance of 1.60-1.75m ounces at an all in sustaining cost of $1,810-1,860 per ounce, relying on a stronger Kalgoorlie.

Looking into FY25, UBS expects Kalgoorlie production increases by 155,000 ounces, Yandal by 60,000 ounces and Pogo by 45,000 ounces. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.00 from $15.20.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.74 Difference: $0.26
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter lowers its target for Select Harvests to $4.10 from $4.70 based on a combination of lower forecast FY24 cashflow and a potential La Nina development.

Management now expects the FY24 almond harvest will be between 28,500-30,000t, below previous market expectations for more than 30,000t and the broker's forecast of 30,000t. US dollar almond pricing has also weakened recently.

Historically,  La Nina has not resulted in a favourable yield outcome for almond producers in Australia, notes Bell Potter. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.4
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests' market update, featuring 95% completion of the 2024 almond harvest, marked a tiny miss vis a vis Ord Minnett's expectations (-1%).

However, the broker is particularly disappointed with management's communication endeavours, having pumped up expectations in late January, and then yet again releasing an underwhelming market update.

The broker thinks it's now waiting for almond price movements to provide the next catalyst for the shares. Target has fallen to $5.25 from $5.41. Buy.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1.55
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Buy (1) -

A softer update from Select Harvests has seen UBS lower its full year earnings forecast by -43%, now anticipating a result of $17m. 

The broker notes speculation around a likely rebound in 2024/25 Californian crops has seen crop price guides decline to $7.30-7.50 per kilogram, while closer to home recent weather conditions have seen crop guidance fall to 28,500-30,000 metric tonnes. 

The company's CEO has also announced his departure, effective end of July. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.70 from $5.10.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $1
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses "solid" 1Q production for Stanmore Resources, while management's FY24 guidance is unchanged.

The analyst suggests investors should contemplate upside risk for Stanmore given the metallurgical coal market appears to have reached a pricing nadir, well above the long-term consensus forecast.

The Add rating is retained, while the target eases to $4.00 from $4.15 after the broker adjusts for lower near-term hard coking coal (HCC) pricing and less conservative pulverised coal injection (PCI) realisations into 2025.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.76
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources' March quarter performance has been labeled "solid" by Ord Minnett given the impacts from severe rainfall in January.

Free cash flow generation will be lower in FY24 with the broker blaming one-off impacts, but an 8c in dividends is still expected.

Incremental production growth should generate higher cash flows and thus higher dividends, the broker predicts.

Target has gained 10c to $3.90. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.66
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy's 3Q result revealed revenue of $17.6m, ahead of Bell Potter's $16m forecast, while quarterly net production of 2.29PJe exceeded the broker's 1.9PJe estimate. The average realised price of $7.54/GJ missed the analysts' forecast for $8.00/GJ.

The South Erregulla reviews are ongoing. In the current quarter, the broker anticipates an updated (smaller) reserve along with a development plan for the successful SE1 well.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price falls to 29c from 32c.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.08
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley increases its target for Treasury Wine Estates to 14.50 from $13.75 driven by an increase in FY27 Penfolds earnings estimates.

Penfolds volumes and pricing should be supported by the removal of Chinese tariffs, according to the broker. Meaningful upside is also expected over FY27/28 as increased luxury volumes become available for sale.

Penfolds luxury Bin and Icon tiers are supply constrained out to 2027, helping support near-term price and margins, explains Morgan Stanley.

The analysts also expects benefits from the repositioning of the Americas division.

Overweight. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $2.51
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources