Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

ANZ target price rises to $32.50 from $31 post the EPS lift of 0.7% for FY25 and 3.9% for FY26.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $33.02 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.12, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

No change to Underperform rating and target rises to $11 from $10.50 for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank. Macquarie's EPS estimate for FY25 is unchanged and FY26 rises by 1.8%.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.86 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.40, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecast for FY25 by 1.1% and 3.9% for FY26 for Bank of Queensland, while retaining an Underperform rating.

Target moves up to $6 from $5.75.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

Macquarie lifts its EPS estimate for CommBank by 1.6% for FY26 and FY26 is unchanged.

Unchanged Underperform rating. Target lifted to $106 from $105.

Target price is $106.00 Current Price is $165.57 Difference: minus $59.57 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting downside of -29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

CSL entered into a collaboration and option agreement with VarmX to develop VMX-C001, a novel treatment designed to restore blood coagulation in patients taking Factor Xa (FXa) inhibitors.

Morgan Stanley notes the company will fund phase 3 clinical trial and commercialisation costs, and make an upfront payment of -US$117m to exercise the option to acquire VarmX following receipt of phase 3 data. 

Additional pre-launch payments of up to -US$388m, plus up to -US$1.7bn in milestones, may be made.

The broker estimates mid to high single-digit EPS accretion vs its base case, assuming launch in FY30, 10-year penetration to 30%, and EBIT margins of 45%. Potential valuation upside in the broker's estimate is $19/share.

The broker didn't factor any of this into its earnings forecasts yet.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $285 from $291 due to higher AUD/USD. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $199.24 Difference: $85.76
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Generation Development with a Buy rating and target price of $8.20.

The company operates an asset-based fee model, driven by inflows, low outflows, and market performance. The crown jewel is managed accounts, where the market is expected to nearly double to $500bn by FY30.

The broker notes the company built a 10% market share through the acquisition of Lonsec and Evidentia, and continues to evaluate inorganic growth targets.

It also recently received $25m minority investment from Blackrock, which is significant because it is its first in a strategic balance sheet into an Australian business. The broker sees the 5-year lock-up as a strong validation of the company's platform.

With strong earnings momentum and an expanding addressable market, the broker sees scope for continued earnings upgrades and multiple re-rate potential.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $1.09
If GDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Lithium prices rebounded in August after falling -17% in the first half of the year, breaking a near-continuous 24-month decline since mid-2023, observes Macquarie.

The broker sees emerging signals of a potential new cycle, underpinned by an increasing imbalance between supply and demand.

Near-term supply is constrained by audits in Jiangxi, political unrest in Mali, and project delays in Brazil, explains the analyst, while medium- and long-term expansion plans are also being hindered.

In the near term, electric vehicle penetration remains robust, reaching 12% in the US, 55% in China, and 31% in Europe as of August, highlights Macquarie.

IGO Ltd and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) are the broker's preferred lithium producers exposure while Liontown Resources ((LTR)) and Sayona Mining ((SYA)) also offer leverage to lithium price upside.

The Outperform rating and $5.50 target are kept for IGO Ltd.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.62
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group has been in the news recently for its fight to retain the APPF (Australian Prime Property Fund) mandate. APPF is important to the group because of its size and steady management fee revenue.

Citi notes the potential loss of the APPF mandate would reduce scale, but the company is already positioning for future growth, with plans to expand its investment management presence in Singapore over the next five years.

While acknowledging this development presents a near-term headwind, the broker continues to see upside from development project winds and longer-term growth opportunities in funds management.

Buy. Target price $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.43
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans reviews MA Financial's MA Money division, highlighting rapid loan growth, profitability, and improving margins.

The loan book reached $3.7bn in 1H25, settlements are running at a $2bn half-year pace, and the net interest margin (NIM) lifted to 1.5% from 1.1%, observes the broker. Profit also improved to $4m from a -$4m loss.

The analyst expects FY26 targets to be beaten, with loan growth above $4bn and profit of $17.5m based on conservative assumptions.

There is also potential for efficiency upside as the cost-to-income ratio is still above peers, points out the broker.

Morgans raises its target price to $10.63 from $10.23 on modest forecast upgrades and retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $10.63 Current Price is $9.22 Difference: $1.41
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes recent results at Minerals 260's 100%-owned Bullabulling Gold Project have extended mineralisation along strike and at depth.

It delivered some of the highest grades and gram-metre intercepts in the project’s history, and highlighted underground mining potential as grades increase with depth.

The results will feed into a mineral resource update targeted for December, which the broker expects will show a material increase in contained ounces, likely at higher grades.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 34c.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.125
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 61.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Citi observes modest external recruitment activity at Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings, but isn't surprised given solid labour retention rates and certainty on near-term revenue outlook.

This is helping the companies allocate labour resources efficiently in the broker's view. 

However, this could change as Monadelphous could be on cusp of securing E&C projects of meaningful scale before end-2025, the broker highlights.

Accordingly, the broker expects hiring activity to pick up in the near term. Buy. Target price $23.60.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: $1.5
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts for National Australia Bank by 1.1% for FY25 and 4% for FY26. Target price rises to $37.50 from $35.50.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $43.65 Difference: minus $6.15 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.44, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi observes modest external recruitment activity at NRW Holdings and Monadelphous Group, but isn't surprised given solid labour retention rates and certainty on near-term revenue outlook.

This is helping the companies allocate labour resources efficiently in the broker's view. 

But with NRW’s platform strengthened by the inclusion of Fredon, the company now has expanded opportunities that would support renewed labour market engagement over the near term, the broker highlights.

Accordingly, the broker expects hiring activity to pick up in the near term. Buy. Target price $4.05.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PTM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter notes all major resolutions regarding Platinum Asset Management's merger with L1 Capital ((LSF)) were passed at the September 22 AGM, paving the way for the merger by month-end, forming L1 Group. The ASX code will be L1G.

The company made several announcements since July, with a key one being a significant client redemption of -$580m expected in October and November. FY25 result, published in late August, was in line with the broker's expectations.

The broker updated the model to incorporate FY25 results, disclosures and fund flow updates, resulting in a 10.5% increase to FY26 net profit forecast and a 5% increase to FY27.

Target rises to 70c from 60c. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie points to a decline in Australian listings volumes in August, down -12% on the prior year, and down year-to-date by -10%.

Sydney and Melbourne fell by -12% and -7%, respectively, and are down year-to-date by -9%/-8%, respectively.

Regarding REA Group, the analyst forecasts residential listings growth of 1% for FY26, slightly above management guidance and reflective of an expectation around future RBA rate cuts.

The Neutral rating and $255 target are maintained.

Target price is $255.00 Current Price is $232.44 Difference: $22.56
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $275.04, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Post a trading update from Regis Healthcare on the back of changes in government funding, Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -13% for FY26 and -7% for FY27, and now sits at the midpoint of management's guidance but below consensus by -8% for FY26 earnings (EBITDA).

Despite a 4.7% increase in AN-ACC pricing from 1-Oct-25, Regis expects only a 2.6% uplift, with the hotelling supplement rise of $6.55 per resident per day likely offset by higher staff costs.

The analyst notes occupancy remains strong at 96.5%, supported by the Rockpool acquisition, though funding pressures may delay greenfield projects into early 2026.

The stock is rated Outperform, with Macquarie positive on the robust occupancy, the balance sheet strength, and future taskforce funding. Target price falls to $7.90 from $8.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.1
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Buy (1) -

Regis Healthcare provided a trading update following the recent announcement of government funding changes. The company stated the headline 4.7% AN-ACC funding increase equates to just 2.6% y/y funding rise, well below 5%-plus staff cost growth.

The $6.55/day hotelling supplement boost is more than offset by care funding cuts, the company highlighted.

FY26 underlying EBITDA was guided to $130-135m, missing Ord Minnett's forecast by -7%. The broker cut EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27, driving a cut in target price to $8.50 from $9.00.

Buy maintained.

On the issue of government funding, the broker believes development pipelines will slow and more providers might exit, assuming there are no further funding increases in FY26.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.7
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REH as Neutral (3) -

Reece announced an off-market share buyback targeting $250m with the option to lift it to $400m at 6.6% to 26% premium to last closing price (September 19).

Citi estimates the proposed buyback to be low single-digit dilutive to estimated FY26 EPS due to the premium paid and because the company is using higher-cost debt funding, rather than cash on the balance sheet.

The broker notes visibility on the trajectory of the US business remains limited but a buyback could be strategically logical ahead of any potential corporate activity.

Neutral. Target price $13.10.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: $1.32
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.05, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett suggests Reece's $250m off-market buyback, which can be upsized to $400m, signals management's confidence in valuation, capital discipline, and long-term performance.

The buyback is priced with a floor of $11.00 and ceiling of $13.00, representing 7-26% premiums to the prior close, with completion scheduled for October 24.

The broker highlights leverage will rise modestly to 1.2-1.4 times earnings (EBITDA) from 0.8 times in FY25, which remains conservative, in the analysts' view.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $14.50 target, noting near-term challenges but expecting stronger returns as conditions improve.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: $2.72
If REH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.05, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Australian job ad volumes fell -3% on the previous period in August but rose 1% on the prior month, with annual declines slowing.

Applications per ad in July were up 1% on June, with the analyst stating a new record of 100 applications, a rise of 84% on the 10-year average.

Seek remains the top classified pick for Macquarie, with the FY26 outlook considered “conservative,” and ongoing strategic changes, including product innovation and cost controls, expected to boost growth.

The Outperform rating and $32.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.91 Difference: $3.59
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.44, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Santana Minerals reported further strong results from extensional drilling at the northern extensions of the Rise and Shine (RAS) deposit within the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project. The results this time were from the deep down plunge continuation of the RAS lode.

Shaw and Partners is now more confident the project will be fully approved by the first quarter of 2026 and in production.

The explorer has a cash balance of $99m following a recent $60m capital raising.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $1.63.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.81
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' Barossa gas project has achieved first gas and is looking to ramp up revenues in 4Q2025, which is expected to take place swiftly, according to Macquarie.

The Pikka oil project (Alaska) is ready for first oil in 1Q2026, with the large capex spend over the last three years of around -US$1.7bn now anticipated to fall substantially, pending the Papua LNG, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lowers its EPS estimates by -3% and -2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, post the Barossa FPSO lease accounting review.

Target price is set at $8.45, down -1%, following the removal of a minor deal premium.

While the failure of the XRG consortium is disappointing, the analyst sees great long-term value for investors, with the stock trading around an implied oil price of US$51/bbl versus Woodside Energy Group ((WDS)) at US$60/bbl.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.65
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SXL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Southern Cross Media's FY25 result marked the first full-year positive EBITDA contribution from its 4-year old audio startup streaming business LiSTNR.

Since then, there has been speculation in the media about the company being the subject of takeover interest. The broker's bull case for the stock is $1.20/share based on M&A activity, particularly given the positive view on LiSTNR.

No change to Underweight rating and 65c target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting downside of -18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Following a meeting with Transurban Group's management, Citi remains positive on the stock, retaining the Buy rating and $16.10 target price.

While the broker's upgrade to Buy in August on expectations of positive news on the pipeline hasn't yet materialised, the encouraging news was the company is working on $10bn opportunity pipeline.

The NSW toll review outcome remains a risk but the broker sees limited near-term impact to cash flows after the company flagged near-term revenue protection is one of the principles of negotiation.

Other positives include focus on operational cost management and attractive debt funding costs, with a recent US$550m issue 10x oversubscribed at less than 5% cost.

Risks include Westgate Tunnel cost claims and ongoing ConnectEast litigation, but provisions appear adequate in the broker's view.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $14.04 Difference: $2.06
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Post the Optus outage last Thursday, Macquarie estimates every 1% of Optus mobile SIO (active customers) churn represents around 36bps of potential upside to Telstra Group's share price and circa 27bps to TPG Telecom's ((TPG)) share price.

The analyst flags the pick-up in market share could also be underpinned by low growth in mobile for Optus, as well as higher churn.

Telstra's postpaid share gains could lift share to an estimated 51% and TPG to 16.6% over the next 12 months, with a corresponding rise in earnings of circa $55m for Telstra and around $24m for TPG.

Macquarie's base case assumes a 3% Optus SIO churn and a resulting rise in mobile network operator (Telstra and Vodafone) upside of 157k postpaid SIOs and an additional 57k prepaid SIOs.

At this stage, the analyst has not adjusted earnings forecasts. Telstra Group is rated Outperform with a $5.04 target.

Target price is $5.04 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.17
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Outperform (1) -

Post the Optus outage last Thursday, Macquarie estimates every 1% of Optus mobile SIO (active customers) churn represents around 36bps of potential upside to Telstra Group's ((TLS)) share price and circa 27bps to TPG Telecom's share price.

The analyst flags the pick-up in market share could also be underpinned by low growth in mobile for Optus, as well as higher churn.

Telstra's postpaid share gains could lift share to an estimated 51% and TPG to 16.6% over the next 12 months, with a corresponding rise in earnings of circa $55m for Telstra and around $24m for TPG.

Macquarie's base case assumes a 3% Optus SIO churn and a resulting rise in mobile network operator (Telstra and Vodafone) upside of 157k postpaid SIOs and an additional 57k prepaid SIOs.

At this stage, the analyst has not adjusted earnings forecasts. TPG Telecom is rated Outperform with a $5.60 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $0.56
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UNI as Outperform (1) -

Universal Store is Macquarie's top pick in small-cap consumer stocks under coverage. The analyst cites resilient revenue and gross profit growth despite sector challenges.

Over FY22-25, revenue grew at a 11% compound annual growtyh rate (CAGR) and gross profit at 19% CAGR, with margins boosted by private label penetration rising to 55% from 43%, highlights the broker.

For FY26, revenue growth of 11% year-on-year is expected, supported by further gross margin expansion.

Investments in online presence and headcount will likely underpin long-term growth, with a $17m net cash position providing scope for offshore expansion, points out Macquarie.

At 7x EV/earnings (EBITDA), the broker points out the stock trades at discounts of -8% to ASX peers and -41% to international peers. Valuation is seen as attractive given the company's positioning with younger consumers and tailwinds from HECS policy changes.

The $10.20 target price and Outperform rating are maintained.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $8.82 Difference: $1.38
If UNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Vault Minerals' FY26 guidance came in softer than consensus expectations on production, costs (AISC), and growth capex, observes Macquarie.

FY26 production guidance of 346koz is -5% adrift of forecasts by the broker and consensus, largely due to Deflector’s transition to owner mining and lower grades.

Costs (AISC) of -$2,750/oz were -4% worse than expected by the analyst and growth capex of -$278m sits well above broker estimates.

The broker notes FY27 and FY28 guidance was also slightly weaker, with production of 375koz and 385koz, respectively, both below consensus assumptions. 

Longer-life extensions at Mount Monger lift the broker's forecasts by 6-88% in FY29-31, helping offset weaker forecasts in prior years.

The broker maintains its 65c target price and Outperform rating, with upside seen from incremental life extensions and successful delivery of the KOTH expansion.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS lowers its target for Vault Minerals to 72c from 75c and downgrades to Neutral from Buy after three-year production guidance  came in lower than the broker’s expectation.

Consequently, the broker trims its FY26-28 production forecasts by an average of -7%.

FY26 guidance of around 346koz is down from 385koz in FY25, impacted by Deflector’s transition to owner mining, development at Spanish Galleon, and Leonora’s plant expansion, explains the broker.

More positively, the analysts note FY28 includes 42koz from Sugar Zone on an earlier restart.

Cost (AISC) guidance proved resilient, according to UBS, at around -$2,900/oz despite weaker output, with Leonora at -$2,350/oz including inventory charges. FY26 capex of -$278m was only slightly above the UBS forecast.

Despite a strong balance sheet with $686m cash and bullion, recent share price strength and slower buy-back execution contribute to the broker's material downgrades to forecast earnings. 

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.03
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

In reviewing credit quality for banks, which has been a tailwind for the sector, Macquarie lowers its bad and doubtful debt (BDD) estimates on the back of a positive macro environment.

The analyst lowers BDD assumptions by 20-30%, which results in across-the-board earnings upgrades for the banks by 2-6%. However, Macquarie states the estimates still remain below consensus by -1% to -6%.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) remain Neutral rated and are the preferred exposures, with an overall underweight stance on the sector.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecast for Westpac by 2.1% for FY26, and FY25 is left unchanged.

Target rises to $31 from $30. Underperform rating retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $38.56 Difference: minus $7.56 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.01, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources