Australian Broker Call

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April 04, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 02:47 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CAR - CARSALES.COM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
CSL - CSL Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
GEM - G8 EDUCATION Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
GWA - GWA GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $23.56

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The US Court of Appeals has ruled that the Big Fish Casino constitutes illegal online gambling, according to Washington state law. Deutsche Bank expects Churchill Downs, the former owner, will appeal the decision and notes Aristocrat has been indemnified as to damages and part of the purchase price.

If confined to Washington, the broker estimates just 0.4% of group earnings would be at risk. Nevertheless, there could be broader implications for social casino and casual gambling.

Buy rating. Target $32.90.

Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $23.56 Difference: $9.34
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.86, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.6, implying annual growth of 38.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of 20.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $13.92

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

A Canadian based packaging company has acquired the flexibles business of a US company for what the broker estimates is a 7% return on funds engaged. Amcor's M&A hurdle rate is 20% after three years.

Amcor's last key acquisition was in 2016, and this latest consolidation deal in the industry highlights that patience will be required, and an easing of valuations, before Amcor can make its next key move. Neutral and $15 target retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.92 Difference: $1.08
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 82.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 90.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $28.72

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects BHP will receive US$8-10bn from the exit of his shale assets. While an exit from shale will likely result in a final write-down in book value the resultant earnings upgrade and likely cash return to shareholders should provide positive catalysts, in the broker's opinion.

The stock is trading at an FY19 free cash flow yield of 8% on the broker's forecasts and 11% at spot prices. Outperform rating and $35.70 target maintained.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $28.72 Difference: $6.98
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.67, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 133.11 cents and EPS of 221.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 95.63 cents and EPS of 190.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.2, implying annual growth of -4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 129.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR  CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $13.31

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The share price has been under pressure recently, and we can blame Morgan Stanley analysts for scaring investors about potential competition impact that was purely theoretical, and Credit Suisse has now decided it's opportune to raise its recommendation to Neutral from Underperform.

Some minor adjustments have been made to the broker's modeling, but nothing to impact on valuation or price target, which remains unchanged at $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.31 Difference: $0.19
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.13, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 54.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 18.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 60.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CL1  CLASS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $2.26

Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reduces closing SMSF forecasts by around -1000 funds which results in a minor negative revision to FY19 earnings estimates.

The broker has been somewhat surprised by how rapidly future growth expectations have been revised lower, evidenced by the sharply negative share price performance of late.

This comes despite little real evidence this is occurring to any material degree and Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating and $3.50 target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $1.24
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 41.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 28.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $158.04

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse analysts note industry dynamics remain favourable for US IG volume growth, albeit with the expectation that growth remains poised for a slower pace in the period ahead, with CSL cycling tough comparison.

The company remains well placed to grow IG volumes slightly ahead of industry over the short-to-medium term, in the analysts' view. Credit Suisse's forecasts imply volume growth of circa 11% for CSL's IG portfolio in FY18.

Outperform rating retained, as well as the $173 price target. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $173.00 Current Price is $158.04 Difference: $14.96
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $166.43, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 204.19 cents and EPS of 465.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 467.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 239.14 cents and EPS of 535.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 529.9, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CSL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has re-modelled earnings drivers for CSL and transferred lead analyst coverage. The broker shifts to DCF-based valuation methodology. A three-year compound growth rate for earnings per share of 16% is forecast.

The valuation implies a premium to the company's historical average relative to the market but UBS believes current plasma industry conditions are favourable. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $175 from $155.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $158.04 Difference: $16.96
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $166.43, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 197.73 cents and EPS of 469.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 467.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 215.82 cents and EPS of 537.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 529.9, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $5.26

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Hold (3) -

The company has announced that $7m of the $10m due for settlement in the second half from the sale of Chirnside Park will now be recognised in FY19. Deutsche Bank notes this implies a reduction in FY18 property EBIT to $48m from $55m.

The company has also confirmed the sale of surplus land at Horsley Park, NSW, which is expected to generate around $30m in property EBIT in FY19. Deutsche Bank increases FY19 property earnings estimates to $50m from $20m.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.31 from $4.26.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of -13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to envisage merit in the CSR investment case, suspecting that earnings visibility is better than consensus evaluations suggest.

The broker incorporates the latest property sale and some settlement delays to estimates. FY18 is revised down -1.7% while FY19 is revised up 10.4%. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.15.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $0.34
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 41.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 40.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of -13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DCN  DACIAN GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.12

Macquarie rates DCN as Outperform (1) -

The company has poured its first gold from Mt Morgans, achieved on time and budget. Dacian Gold expects to produce 180-210,000 ounces in FY19.

The company continues to assess the Cameron Well project and intends to deliver a maiden reserve and resource estimate in its mid-year update. Macquarie remains confident that the prospect will develop into a third mining centre at Mt Morgans but does not yet factor in additional production.

The broker retains Outperform and reduces the target to $3.70 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.58
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 53.79.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE  ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $3.33

Ord Minnett rates EHE as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Pressure on earnings in the aged care sector should continue as past reforms roll through, but Ord Minnett believes the level of funding has bottomed and supportive measures are likely to be included in the May federal budget.

Along with attractive demand dynamics the broker believes the industry outlook is improving, with a clear opportunity for growth via development. Ord Minnett initiates coverage of residential aged care providers.  Estia Health appears fair value and the broker initiates with a Hold rating and $3.55 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.22
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $2.37

Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has reduced occupancy forecasts for 2018 to 77.7% from 78.8% and for 2019 to 79.0% from 80.5%. This results in a -4-5% reduction to revenue forecasts.

While the valuation remains undemanding the broker envisages few catalysts in 2018. Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $4.25. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.43
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 45.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 24.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GWA  GWA GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

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Overnight Price: $3.34

Morgans rates GWA as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Management intends to divest its door & access systems business. Morgans values this business at $45-65m. The company maintains a strong balance sheet which could provide capital management initiatives such as a share buyback or special dividend, in the broker's opinion.

While the broker expects earnings growth to be broadly flat over the next few years the stock offers a 5.2% fully franked yield with upside from capital management initiatives post the sale of this business.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add as the share price is now trading above the target price of $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of -1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHC  JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $2.00

Ord Minnett rates JHC as Initiation of coverage with Lighten (4) -

Pressure on earnings in the aged care sector should continue as past reforms roll through, but Ord Minnett believes the level of funding has bottomed and supportive measures are likely to be included in the May federal budget.

Along with attractive demand dynamics the broker believes the industry outlook is improving, with a clear opportunity for growth via development. Ord Minnett initiates coverage of residential aged care providers and considers Japara the most challenged by reforms, while rising debt also remains a concern. Lighten rating and $1.80 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If JHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of -28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $17.27

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

The company has signed an agreement with Hexagon Resources ((HXG)) to develop the McIntosh graphite project in Western Australia. Mineral Resources already has an agreement to develop a synthetic graphite plant with Hazer Group ((HZR)).

Macquarie notes the company now has a two-pronged strategy for graphite. The broker does not include either project in forecasts or valuation.

Graphite earnings offer upside to base case forecasts but the broker suspects the two projects will likely be dwarfed by the contributions that are forecast from Wodgina spodumene. Outperform rating and $23 target maintained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $17.27 Difference: $5.73
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 91.00 cents and EPS of 181.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.2, implying annual growth of 67.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 223.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.5, implying annual growth of 36.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MLX  METALS X LIMITED

Tin

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Overnight Price: $0.79

Macquarie rates MLX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is confident that a recovery in production and the ramp up at Nifty is on track. The broker expects a material improvement in output in the fourth quarter and the mine to return to over 30,000 tpa rates of copper production in FY19.

Outperform and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.51
If MLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 395.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $19.79

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

Newcrest has resumed processing at earthquake troubled Cadia, but at a rather limited run rate of 8Mtpa only. This nevertheless marks a faster-than-anticipated resumption, highlight the analysts.

Underperform rating retained, as well as the $18.50 price target. Credit Suisse continues to stick with its modeling which assumes full production at Cadia in FY19.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $19.79 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.39 cents and EPS of 37.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.77 cents and EPS of 144.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.7, implying annual growth of 81.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

The company has announced a re-start to production at Cadia at a reduced 8mtpa rate.

Macquarie is encouraged by the development, noting Newcrest plans to utilise the old Cadia Hill pit as an alternative tailings disposal, which could mean full-scale production re-starts in coming weeks.

Underperform rating and $19 target maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $19.79 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.03 cents and EPS of 55.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.77 cents and EPS of 127.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.7, implying annual growth of 81.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NCM as Sell (5) -

Newcrest is continuing to evaluate the cause of the dam failure at Cadia but is resuming processing at a limited 8mtpa rate because of the available infrastructure in the southern tailings dam.

The company expects to return to full mining rates within coming weeks and this suggests to UBS the permit for tailings disposal in the Cadia Hill open pit is closer to fruition than previously expected. Sell rating and $14.70 target maintained.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $19.79 Difference: minus $5.09 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.39 cents and EPS of 77.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.55 cents and EPS of 112.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.7, implying annual growth of 81.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG  REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $3.63

Ord Minnett rates REG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Pressure on earnings in the aged care sector should continue as past reforms roll through but Ord Minnett believes the level of funding has bottomed and supportive measures are likely to be included in the May federal budget.

Along with attractive demand dynamics the broker believes the industry outlook is improving, with a clear opportunity for growth via development. Ord Minnett initiates coverage of residential aged care providers with Regis Healthcare preferred in the sector given its development track record. Buy rating and $4.45 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.82
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $74.34

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

The sales of Hail Creek and Kestrel were completed at a 40% premium to Macquarie's respective values for the assets. The disposals will enable the company's complete exit from coal by late 2018. The broker reduces forecasts for 2018 and 2019 earnings by -1% and -5% respectively.

A total of US$4.15bn in cash is expected in the second half, which Macquarie believes will enable the company to move to a net cash position at the end of 2018.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $93 target.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: $18.66
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.16, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 432.93 cents and EPS of 731.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 655.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 372.19 cents and EPS of 618.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 609.0, implying annual growth of -7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $2.45

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the premium rate environment continues to be supportive, estimating premium rates were up 6.5% in the third quarter.

This increase is consistent with the assumptions that support the group's guidance, the broker suggests. Guidance is for underlying operating earnings of $160-170m and underlying net profit of $72.5-77.5m.

Outperform and $3.30 target retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.85
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 33.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFH  SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $0.41

Citi rates SFH as Neutral (3) -

A private equity firm has made a conditional offer to acquire Specialty Fashion's City Chic and Autograph brands for $100m. The company has not acted quickly on the offer, likely reflecting, the broker suspects, the difficulty in unpicking group overhead costs.

At least it does show value in some of its brands. The broker lifts its target to 48c from 30c, placing a 50% probability on a full takeover at 63c. Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.07
If SFH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.29.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.83

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Harbour Energy has made what is a fourth takeover bid for Santos, offering $6.50 in cash and dividend. Harbour's initial offer last August was $4.55. The broker sees the board as approving the deal and the ACCC as not having a problem, but the sensitive matter of energy supply may mean FIRB has issues.

The question then would be whether shareholders are happy with the price or would they prefer to hold on for future upside growth. Neutral and $5.31 target retained.

Target price is $5.31 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.47 cents and EPS of 24.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Suitor Harbour Energy has lobbed its fourth bid for the company and Santos has granted due diligence. Credit Suisse points out the US$4.98 per share offer translates to circa $6.50 at current FX values and includes 16c in franking benefits.

The plans Harbour has for Santos are underwritten by US$7.75bn in debt, on top of Santos' current debt of around US$2.5bn, leading the analysts to surmise yet another level of leverage when they thought leverage was high back in 2014.

Apart from the high debt involved, Credit Suisse questions whether the ATO is peeking around the corner as well, plus the FIRB of course, which will have something to say amid tensions in the domestic gas market. Outperform. Target lifts to $6.35 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: $0.52
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.66 cents and EPS of 36.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates STO as No Rating (-1) -

Deutsche Bank is now under research restriction, as it is acting as a financial advisor to Santos, which means no rating and no price target, and no forecasts either.

Current Price is $5.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates STO as Reduce (5) -

Harbour Energy has made a highly conditional indicative offer of US$4.98 a share for Santos. Morgans suggests Harbour Energy's plan to invest heavily in this capital-starved business is likely to result in a materially higher valuation than currently estimated.

Yet, the broker suspects obtaining FIRB approval could be difficult, given the national significance of GLNG and the Cooper Basin. Reduce rating and $4.31 target maintained.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -

The company has agreed to allow Harbour Energy to undertake due diligence after an indicative, non-binding offer at US$4.98 a share. UBS envisages risks around due diligence and remains cautious about the prospect of a firm bid emerging.

To justify the offer the broker would need to de-risk the company's growth projects and assume an oil price of US$75/bbl. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.20.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: $0.17
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.17 cents and EPS of 24.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL  SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $6.59

UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

UBS believes concerns around the stock are overdone and reiterates a Buy rating and $8.70 target. The stock has underperformed the market by -15% since the first half results.

Weakness in the stock is a result of reduced confidence in the ability to meet long-term margin targets and increased exposure to the troubled leisure division as well as slowing consumer cash flow, UBS observes. The key catalyst will be a trading update in May.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $2.11
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 69.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.9, implying annual growth of 35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.50 cents and EPS of 78.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT  VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.78

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

The company posted a positive trading update and Morgans notes annual recurring revenue of NZ$3.6m is indicated for FY18, exceeding prior guidance.

The rate of customer adoption is encouraging for the broker and the Add rating and 81c target are retained.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.03
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.50.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WFD  WESTFIELD CORPORATION

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $8.54

Macquarie rates WFD as No Rating (-1) -

Unibail-Rodamco has released a prospectus in relation to the bid for Westfield. Macquarie notes the prospectus highlights the implied value of the transaction at $10.01 a share, which would have been $10.12 a share including OneMarket.

Westfield unit holders will vote on the transaction on May 24. Due to research restrictions Macquarie cannot advise on valuation at present.

Current Price is $8.54. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $10.02, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.60 cents and EPS of 42.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.25 cents and EPS of 44.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.0, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $23.56
AMC AMCOR Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.92
BHP BHP BILLITON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $28.72
CAR CARSALES.COM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.31
CL1 CLASS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.26
CSL CSL Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $158.04
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $158.04
CSR CSR Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.26
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.26
DCN DACIAN GOLD Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.12
EHE ESTIA HEALTH Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.33
GEM G8 EDUCATION Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.37
GWA GWA GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.34
JHC JAPARA HEALTHCARE Initiation of coverage with Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.00
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $17.27
MLX METALS X Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.79
NCM NEWCREST MINING Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $19.79
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.79
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $19.79
REG REGIS HEALTHCARE Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.63
RIO RIO TINTO Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $74.34
SDF STEADFAST GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.45
SFH SPECIALTY FASHION Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.41
STO SANTOS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.83
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.83
No Rating - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.83
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $5.83
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.83
SUL SUPER RETAIL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.59
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.78
WFD WESTFIELD CORP No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.54
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

3. Hold

9

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Wednesday 04 April 2018

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