Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its rating for 29Metals to Underweight from Equal-weight on valuation and the potential for higher costs in 2023.

The broker increases its 2022-24 gold price forecasts. The 2022-23 copper price estimates also increase and then slightly decrease in 2024.

Despite a fall in earnings forecasts for the analyst's base case, the valuation technique also incorporates a more positive bear and bull case, resulting in a $2.00 target, up from $1.85.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

According to Macquarie, Air New Zealand continues to benefit from strong reopening demand, constrained capacity and a slow resumption by competitors, while oil prices have also eased.

Management raised 1H FY23 profit (PBT) guidance by around 30%.

The broker raises its target to NZ85c from NZ81c on earnings upgrades. Outperform.

Current Price is $0.73. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency changes. 

Lithium demand headwinds causes the broker to downgrade its rating for Allkem to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target falls to $12.40 from $15.85.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $13.29 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.67, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For Alumina Ltd, a fall in the broker's aluminium and alumina forecasts drives a fall in FY23 earnings estimates though FY24 benefits from a lower currency.

The Overweight rating is maintained though the target price falls to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.06
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For BHP Group, changes to forecasts for iron ore, copper and met coal prices, a lower Australian dollar and changes to the above scenarios results in a $42.55 target, down from $43.30.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $46.23 Difference: minus $3.68 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.48, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

CommBank has increased its indemnity to CountPlus by -$220m as a result of case assessments performed and remediation payments outlayed.

Credit Suisse feels the amount is immaterial to the underlying business and retains its Underperform rating and $97.50 target.

Target price is $97.50 Current Price is $105.35 Difference: minus $7.85 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.43, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has greater confidence in Chalice Mining's Julimar project following recent exploration success and increases its target price to $7.30 from $6.50. The Speculative Buy rating is retained.

The broker reduces the risk weighting by -25% at the Hartog target within the Julimar project and sees further re-rating potential via the Gonneville target, after an upcoming scoping study.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $1
If CHN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Neutral (3) -

Cash flows helped to offset a 47bps rise in cap rate, notes Macquarie, after Centuria Industrial REIT announced a -1.9% fall in December valuation for the portfolio.

The REIT also announced the divestment of an around -50% interest in eight CIP-owned assets for $180.9m. The broker feels these sales help address balance sheet concerns, while also limiting funds from operations (FFO) dilution.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target rises by 2% to $3.08.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CIP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points out cap rate expansion has arrived for Centuria Industrial REIT though thanks to a 10% uplift in overall rent assumptions the revalued portfolio only fell by -2%.

The capitalisation rate increased by 47bps to 4.66% in the six months to December 2022, which the analyst notes reflects the impact of rising interest rates.

In a positive move for gearing, according to the broker, the REIT generated $181m in proceeds by selling assets into a new (50:50) partnership at near book value.

The Equal-weight rating and $3.25 target are retained. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.05
If CIP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a good market update by Centuria Industrial REIT, with rent growth compensating for a 50bps increase in the capitalisation rate. Valuations in December showed a decline in portfolio value of -1.9%,

Management retained guidance for FY23 funds from operations (FFO) and distributions of 17cpu and 16cpu, respectively.

The Buy rating and $3.50 target are retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.3
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers its FY23-25 EPS forecast by -1.9%-15.9% after Downer EDI lowered FY23 earnings guidance and provided initial detail on an accounting irregularity, which led to an overstatement of FY20-22 profit (NPATA) by $30-40m.

The broker's target falls to $4.50 from $5.75, while the Outperform rating was retained on strong valuation support. The stock price is expected to struggle over the next few months as accounting investigations continue.

Earnings guidance fell due to difficult 1H operating conditions (wet weather) and elevated costs, notes the analyst.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.68
If DOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

While Macquarie had anticipated wet weather may jeapordise FY23 guidance for Downer EDI, the extent was greater than expected. Higher costs also weighed. News of accounting irregularities was considered of greater concern.

The irregularities occurred in a maintenance contract at the Australian utilities business and resulted in a historical overstatement of pre-tax earnings of around $30-40m. Investigations are ongoing and the analyst notes the risk they may uncover similar issues.

Guidance for FY23 was downgraded to $210-230m profit (NPATA) compared to the broker's $249m forecast.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the broker sets a $4.05 target, down from $5.61.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.23
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating for Downer EDI on the company's growing infrastructure pipeline though lowers its target to $5.00 from $5.90 following a disappointing trading update.

Not only was guidance lowered due to wet weather and labour shortages but also, more worryingly for the analyst, management announced accounting irregularities relating to a single contract in the Utilities business.

While the rating was unchanged, the broker did acknowledge reduced confidence in the company and seeks further evidence the irregularities are localised.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $1.18
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Downer EDI's renewed infrastructure services and maintenance operating model has proven susceptible to challenging weather and post-covid related operating conditions that have resulted in ongoing earnings volatility and project write-downs, UBS notes.

The weather had led to a -15% guidance downgrade. The overstatement of historical earnings highlights internal control weaknesses, UBS suggests.

While the amount is immaterial, investors will be seeking reassurances that this control deficiency is not indicative of a more widespread issue. Downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target falls to $4.00 from $6.15.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.18
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For Deterra Royalties, the Overweight rating is retained and the target rises to $5.25 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $0.58
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The analysts continue to see a positive environment for gold with favorable currency moves and rate rises easing.

For Evolution Mining, the broker feels modest consensus expectations could be bettered for production/costs over next few years.

The company is among Morgan Stanley's top five Resource sector picks. Overweight and the target rises to $3.35 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.45
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The target price rises to $14.85 from $14.65 for Fortescue Metals. Underweight.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $20.80 Difference: minus $5.95 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting downside of -28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT has announced a -$92.5m acquisition of Southlands Boulevarde, which should be around 1.5% accretive to earnings, according to Macquarie. It's felt occupancy can be increased from 96%, lending further upside.

The broker also believes the REIT's -$50m investment in the HMC Capital ((HMC)) Last Mile Logistics Fund will be around 0.6% accretive.

Macquarie upgrades its earnings forecasts for the acquisitions, though a partial offset results from a higher assumed bank bill swap rate rate for outer years.

The Outperform rating and $1.37 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.06
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Management at HomeCo Daily Needs REIT noted an aim to sell around $150m of large format centres to offset a rise in gearing to 33% from 30.6% as a result of recent acquisitions.

The REIT has committed -$50m to HMC Capital's ((HMC)) Last Mile Logistics fund (10% equity stake) and paid -$92.5m for a daily needs centre in Perth. 

Morgan Stanley sees these purchases as a positive, given market concerns on conservative gearing versus peers.

The Equal-weight rating and $1.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.04
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT announced it will be be acquiring Southlands Boulevarde supermarket shopping centre for $92.5m, at what Ord Minnett  considers an attractive yield.

The REIT will also make a -$50m (10% of equity) commitment to invest into HMC Capital's ((HMC)) unlisted Last Mile Logistics Fund, which the analyst feels may raise conflict of interest concerns.

The Logistics Fund will initially be seeded with the $150m asset Menai Marketplace to be acquired from Lendlease ((LLC)).

The broker leaves its Hold rating and $1.29 target unchanged.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

As the new Last Mile Logistics Fund was pre-announced, Macquarie's valuation for HMC Capital already largely reflected the opportunity.

The REIT announced a seed asset (Menai Marketplace, $150m asset value) for the fund, which is targeting 500m in equity by June 2023.

The Neutral rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $4.96 from $4.81.

Target price is $4.96 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $0.45
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

HMC Capital has purchased for $150m a seed asset (Menai Marketplace) for the just-launched unlisted Last Mile Logistics fund, which aims to raise $1bn in assets under management (AUM).

The broker likes that Menai is currently under-rented, and believes diversification toward unlisted assets is a key strategy for the fund.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $5.60 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.09
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

HMC Capital continues to track to its $10bn in assets under management objective before the end of 2024 (currently  around $6b), UBS notes. The building blocks remain in place, however, the fund raising environment remains difficult.

The fund manager's Last Mile Logistics Fund in nevertheless taking shape. The broker considers short-term earnings are at risk, but long-term aspirations remain in place.

Neutral retained. Target quoted as $5.80 (last $6.60 in June).

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.29
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For the near term, the broker remains cautious on lithium on-over production of batteries in China, a phasing out of subsidies and greater caution by Chinese consumers towards electric vehicles.

The Underweight rating and $12.15 target are maintained for IGO. 

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: minus $2.74 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.11, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The target price rises to $10.65 from $10.55 for Iluka Resources. Equal-weight.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $0.3
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For the near term, the broker remains cautious on lithium on-over production of batteries in China, a phasing out of subsidies and greater caution by Chinese consumers towards electric vehicles.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained for Mineral Resources though the target increases to $83.40 from $78.80 on a positive iron ore environment.

Target price is $83.40 Current Price is $87.78 Difference: minus $4.38 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $90.54, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The analysts continue to see a positive environment for gold with favorable currency moves and rate rises easing.

For Newcrest Mining, the broker sees near-term catalysts via the Red Chris block cave/Havieron feasability study in the 1H of FY23, and a return to production growth in FY26.

The company is among Morgan Stanley's top five Resource sector picks. Overweight and the target rises to $23.40 from $23.00.

Target price is $23.40 Current Price is $21.22 Difference: $2.18
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.63, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The analysts continue to see a positive environment for gold with favorable currency moves and rate rises easing.

For Northern Star Resources, the target rises to $10.90 from $10.80. Equal-weight.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $10.92 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.21, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For OZ Minerals, the broker keeps its Equal-weight rating and increases its target to $25.10 from $21.80.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $27.50 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For Rio Tinto, the broker sees potential for outperformance versus BHP Group on better operations, conservative consensus estimates on capex/opex, and a greater proportion of revenue from (the favoured) aluminium.

The company is among Morgan Stanley's top five Resource sector picks.

The target rises to $125 from $121, Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $114.50 Difference: $10.5
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.86, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The analysts continue to see a positive environment for gold with favorable currency moves and rate rises easing.

For Regis Resources, the broker retains its Underweight rating, while the target rises to $1.80 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

For South32, the broker lowers its target to $4.95 from $5.25.

The company is among Morgan Stanley's top five Resource sector picks. Overweight.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.84
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The broker is positively disposed towards copper exposures due to a China re-opening and low inventories, and retains its Overweight rating for Sandfire Resources. The target rises to $5.80 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.39
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The target price rises to $2.20 from $1.85. Equal-weight.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS has examined the quarterly earnings result from US luxury wine company The Duckhorn Portfolio to assess a read-through for Treasury Wine Estates.

The upshot is Duckhorn has been able to raise prices at the higher end without impacting on demand, and thus cover cost inflation.

Cost pressures are a headwind for all consumer products companies, UBS notes. Treasury Wine has been able to raise prices as noted at its FY22 result, assisted in the Americas by the change in its mix to premium & luxury.

Buy and $14.75 target retained.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.66 Difference: $1.09
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.22, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

The analyst at Morgan Stanley has returned from a site trip anticipating mine production at Maules Creek will display more consistency from FY24 onwards. The opening of all coal seams is expected to allow production flexibility and improved costs.

The broker also suggests improving volumes could benefit Narrabri (high fixed cost base) significantly. 

Separately, Morgan Stanley makes updates across its materials coverage to account for spot commodity prices and currency rates, and valuations are adjusted for base, bear and bull case scenarios.

The broker feels modest consensus expectations for the company could be bettered for production/costs over next few years.

The company is among Morgan Stanley's top five Resource sector picks. Overweight and the target rises to $12.55 from $11.55.

Target price is $12.55 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $2.98
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources